Tenets of Wilson: 2016-12

2016-12-31

Bowl Pick 'Em Contest Winnings, Part XXX

College football ~~will be here again before we know it~~ IS HERE, so I've got to get my prize from last season's Bowl Pick 'Em contest at Cards on Cards posted! My prize for a second place tie was a very generously sized box of cards, so I felt a bit overwhelmed even sorting through them. I finally sorted them out by player, and, as usual, I'll plan to post them all eventually, but I might quit halfway through, we'll see.

Part I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII XVIII XIX XX
XXI XXII XXIII XXIV XXV XXVI XXVII XXVIII XXIX

I'm not sure I've ever done a 30 part post before. Oh well, let's keep rolling! Today I've got Kyle Lohse, Matt Holliday, a Matt Carpenter, Trever Miller, and Mark Ellis, and a pair of team cards.

2009 Upper Deck Signature Stars #77 Matt Holliday
2011 Topps - Factory Set Diamond Anniversary #373 Trever Miller
2012 Topps - Gold Sparkle #26 Kyle Lohse
2013 Topps Archives #125 Kyle Lohse
2013 Topps Gypsy Queen #343 Kyle Lohse
2014 Topps - Blue Parallel #44 Matt Carpenter
2014 Topps - Red Hot Foil Parallel #329 Matt Holliday

I'm still a little bummed Matt Holliday won't finish his career in St. Louis, but that's sort of the nature of the game when players who are much better hitters than defenders can go to the American League and squeeze in another season or two.

2012 Topps #233 St. Louis Cardinals
2012 Topps - Gold Sparkle #233 St. Louis Cardinals
2014 Topps Update #US272 Mark Ellis
2016 Topps #254 Matt Holliday

I know Mark Ellis played for the Cardinals, but it felt like I never actually saw him play during his one season in St. Louis. He only started 46 games and played in 73 total, so that may be part of the reason. The team cards here commemorate the game that clinched a World Series appearance for the Cardinals, which they ultimately went on to win for the 11th World Championship.

2016-12-29

Bowl Pick 'Em Contest Winnings, Part XXIX

College football ~~will be here again before we know it~~ IS HERE, so I've got to get my prize from last season's Bowl Pick 'Em contest at Cards on Cards posted! My prize for a second place tie was a very generously sized box of cards, so I felt a bit overwhelmed even sorting through them. I finally sorted them out by player, and, as usual, I'll plan to post them all eventually, but I might quit halfway through, we'll see.

Part I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII XVIII XIX XX
XXI XXII XXIII XXIV XXV XXVI XXVII XXVIII

We're starting to run out of bowls, but I've still got some cards to show. I'm doing decently in this year's contest, too. I'll finish today in the lead, but not the top Max Points Possible, so I'm not quite in control of my own destiny.

All of today's cards are from a fun time in collecting and in my baseball-watching life. 1993-1995 weren't great years for the Cardinals, but for whatever reason, it's when I really started getting deep into baseball despite their struggles.

1993 Fleer - Rookie Sensations #RSA9 Mike Perez
1993 Fleer Ultra #111 Mike Perez
1993 Fleer Ultra #462 Rheal Cormier
1994 Leaf #110 Rheal Cormier
1994 Leaf #130 Mike Perez
1994 Upper Deck #357 Mike Perez

That Leaf Rheal Cormier is in rough shape. It was actually what I would consider packing material, stuck on the outside of one of the bricks of cards to protect the good stuff within. I'll still throw it into my collection, but noted with it's bad condition so I don't accidentally try to trade it off to an unhappy partner.

1994 Upper Deck #422 Rheal Cormier
1994 Upper Deck Collector's Choice #229 Mike Perez
1995 Leaf #351 Tom Henke
1995 Upper Deck Collector's Choice #196 Tom Henke
1995 Upper Deck Collector's Choice #199 Mike Perez
1996 Donruss #320 Tom Henke

Tom Henke's glasses always made him look old to me. He came to the Cardinals for his final, age 37 year. He even made the All-Star game in 1995, and he wasn't the only player from the team, since Ozzie Smith also went. (I have this theory that having 2 players from a given team in the All-Star game legitimizes both of their appearances, whereas a lone player could arguably be below All-Star caliber, but the best on his team at a position the league needs for the game, and so make one despite not really "deserving" it.)

1994 Upper Deck #529 Alan Benes
1994 Upper Deck Collector's Choice #464 Tom Pagnozzi
1994 Upper Deck Collector's Choice #481 Rheal Cormier
1994 Upper Deck Collector's Choice #641 Alan Benes

To finish off, I have some Alan Benes and Tom Pagnozzi cards, left out of the previous posts to feature those two, and one last Rheal Cormier, who is wearing 52 on all the cards in this post, but later switched to my favorite jersey number, 37.

2016-12-27

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 16, Final

New England over Dallas

Dallas beat Detroit, so there are still 4 teams vying for 2 remaining playoff spots. The winner of Green Bay and Detroit will win the NFC North, though, so at most one of Washington or Tampa can make it.

On the AFC side, Either Kansas City or Oakland will win the AFC West and get a first round bye, and unfortunately they aren't matched up this week. Kansas City has the tiebreaker, but they'll need to win and have Oakland lose in order to take advantage of it. Oakland could still get homefield advantage, by winning and having New England lose.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	13-2	0.814	++	++	++	77.59	56.91	37.86
DAL	13-2	0.741	++	++	++	69.97	42.15	21.17
ATL	10-5	0.694	++	++	89.59	53.18	26.95	12.07
KC	11-4	0.646	28.88	++	79.61	36.16	14.54	6.64
SEA	9-5-1	0.637	++	++	72.15	33.61	14.90	5.81
PIT	10-5	0.640	++	++	62.29	31.82	11.45	5.16
OAK	12-3	0.588	71.12	++	90.88	40.37	12.75	5.08
GB	9-6	0.567	58.21	79.15	40.90	13.76	5.40	1.77
NYG	10-5	0.542	-	++	46.72	14.97	5.49	1.68
MIA	10-5	0.508	-	++	38.39	8.34	3.09	1.00
WAS	8-6-1	0.541	-	49.10	20.65	6.02	2.41	0.74
DET	9-6	0.489	41.79	71.74	29.98	8.50	2.70	0.72
HOU	9-6	0.397	++	++	28.83	5.72	1.26	0.30
TB	8-7	0.468	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BAL	8-7	0.586	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	7-8	0.577	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	6-9	0.547	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	8-7	0.542	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	6-8-1	0.535	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	7-8	0.534	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	7-8	0.528	-	-	-	-	-	-
SD	5-10	0.495	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	8-7	0.492	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	5-9-1	0.484	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	7-8	0.481	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	6-9	0.439	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	3-12	0.343	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	3-12	0.306	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	2-13	0.218	-	-	-	-	-	-
LA	4-11	0.214	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-11	0.208	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	1-14	0.175	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 40% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: New England (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: Dallas (Week 16, Saturday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Sunday] New England over Dallas

2016-12-26

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 16, Sunday

New England over Dallas

With Christmas falling on a Sunday this year, the NFL had just 2 games on their normal day this week. Both had significant playoff implications, though, eliminating Baltimore and Denver, and locking in all 6 AFC playoff teams. Now it's just a matter of the seeding. New England is still the top team, and will remain so unless Dallas can win 78-0 or better tonight. Detroit can clinch a playoff spot with a win.

In the NFC, Tampa is still technically alive, though they'll need a ton of help. First, they need Detroit to lose tonight, and win next week against Green Bay. I haven't dug in too far, but it appears that's to lower the Strength of Victory for both Green Bay and Washington. For the same reason, they'll need San Francisco to beat Seattle, Dallas to beat Philadelphia, Tennessee to beat Houston, and Indianapolis to beat Jacksonville. The NFL has already announced that Week 17's late game will be Green Bay vs Detroit, but there are plenty of scenarios that will have both of those teams clinch the playoffs prior to kickoff. I suppose it's the only matchup between two alive-but-not-clinched teams remaining, so it's as good a game as any to feature for the final game of the season.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	13-2	0.814	++	++	++	77.59	56.90	38.96
DAL	12-2	0.710	++	++	++	65.58	37.17	17.32
ATL	10-5	0.694	++	++	89.05	53.06	28.55	12.79
KC	11-4	0.646	28.88	++	79.60	36.16	14.54	6.94
SEA	9-5-1	0.637	++	++	69.63	32.55	15.37	6.00
PIT	10-5	0.639	++	++	62.28	31.81	11.45	5.40
OAK	12-3	0.588	71.12	++	90.88	40.38	12.75	5.34
GB	9-6	0.567	53.35	76.73	39.14	14.06	5.69	1.86
NYG	10-5	0.542	-	++	44.60	15.27	5.82	1.78
DET	9-5	0.536	46.65	82.49	40.30	13.87	5.16	1.56
MIA	10-5	0.508	-	++	38.39	8.35	3.09	1.06
WAS	8-6-1	0.541	-	40.78	17.27	5.61	2.24	0.68
HOU	9-6	0.397	++	++	28.84	5.72	1.26	0.32
TB	8-7	0.468	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BAL	8-7	0.586	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	7-8	0.577	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	6-9	0.547	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	8-7	0.542	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	6-8-1	0.535	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	7-8	0.534	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	7-8	0.528	-	-	-	-	-	-
SD	5-10	0.495	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	8-7	0.492	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	5-9-1	0.484	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	7-8	0.481	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	6-9	0.440	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	3-12	0.343	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	3-12	0.306	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	2-13	0.218	-	-	-	-	-	-
LA	4-11	0.214	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-11	0.208	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	1-14	0.175	-	-	-	-	-	-

2016-12-25

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 17

There were 8 bowl games since last Saturday, so let's re-run the rankings. Unsurprisingly, the top 6 stayed in place, including the 4 real playoff teams. Just behind them is Western Kentucky, up from #18 to #7 with a win in the Popcorn Bowl or something equally silly.

With nothing else really to talk about, I'll mention the tie down at #67. The interesting part of that is that the teams have different records. That means South Carolina's 6-6 was against an easier schedule than Mississippi's 5-7. A decent portion of that strength of schedule comes from Alabama, although South Carolina did play #2 Clemson. Obviously there are plenty of cases where teams with a worse record have a higher rank than a team with a better record - just look at #2 and #3 - but it really highlights it to see the tie, and between two teams in same conference.

1	Alabama	13-0
2	Clemson	12-1
3	Western Michigan	13-0
4	Washington	12-1
5	Ohio State	11-1
6	Penn State	11-2
7	Western Kentucky	11-3
8	San Diego State	11-3
9	Boise State	10-2
10	Michigan	10-2
11	West Virginia	10-2
12	Oklahoma	10-2
13	Colorado	10-3
14	Wisconsin	10-3
15	South Florida	10-2
16	Appalachian State	10-3
17	Florida State	9-3
18	Temple	10-3
19	Tulsa	10-3
20	Troy	10-3
21	USC	9-3
22	Old Dominion	10-3
23	Navy	9-5
24	Oklahoma State	9-3
25	Stanford	9-3
26	Virginia Tech	9-4
27	Nebraska	9-3
28	Louisville	9-3
29	Houston	9-4
30	Tennessee	8-4
31	Toledo	9-4
32	Air Force	9-3
33	BYU	9-4
34	Idaho	9-4
35	North Carolina	8-4
36	Auburn	8-4
37	Pittsburgh	8-4
38	Washington State	8-4
39	Florida	8-4
40	New Mexico	9-4
41	Georgia Tech	8-4
42	Louisiana Tech	9-5
43	Texas A&M	8-4
44	Iowa	8-4
45	Wyoming	8-6
46	Miami	8-4
47	Utah	8-4
48	LSU	7-4
49	Memphis	8-5
50	Minnesota	8-4
51	Kansas State	8-4
52	Georgia	7-5
53	Arkansas State	8-5
54	Arkansas	7-5
55	Colorado State	7-6
56	Kentucky	7-5
57	Middle Tennessee	8-5
58	Ohio	8-6
59	Vanderbilt	6-6
60	Eastern Michigan	7-6
61	Hawai'i	7-7
62	Southern Mississippi	7-6
63	NC State	6-6
64	Northwestern	6-6
65	TCU	6-6
66	Army	7-5
T-67	South Carolina	6-6
T-67	Ole Miss	5-7
69	Boston College	6-6
70	Wake Forest	6-6
71	UCF	6-7
72	Indiana	6-6
73	Louisiana Lafayette	6-7
74	South Alabama	6-6
75	Texas San Antonio	6-7
76	Maryland	6-6
77	Mississippi State	5-7
78	Baylor	6-6
79	Central Michigan	6-7
80	California	5-7
81	SMU	5-7
82	Miami (OH)	6-6
83	Arizona State	5-7
84	Texas Tech	5-7
85	Northern Illinois	5-7
86	Georgia Southern	5-7
87	Texas	5-7
88	North Texas	5-7
89	Akron	5-7
90	Syracuse	4-8
91	Missouri	4-8
92	Duke	4-8
93	UCLA	4-8
94	Oregon	4-8
95	Oregon State	4-8
96	Louisiana Monroe	4-8
97	Nevada	5-7
98	Tulane	4-8
99	Cincinnati	4-8
100	Notre Dame	4-8
101	Bowling Green	4-8
102	San Jose State	4-8
103	Arizona	3-9
104	UNLV	4-8
105	Utah State	3-9
106	Charlotte	4-8
107	Florida Intl	4-8
108	UTEP	4-8
109	New Mexico State	3-9
110	Ball State	4-8
111	Georgia State	3-9
112	East Carolina	3-9
113	Illinois	3-9
114	Iowa State	3-9
115	Michigan State	3-9
116	Purdue	3-9
117	Kent State	3-9
118	Connecticut	3-9
119	Rice	3-9
120	Marshall	3-9
121	Florida Atlantic	3-9
122	Virginia	2-10
123	Massachusetts	2-10
124	Rutgers	2-10
125	Kansas	2-10
126	Texas State	2-10
127	Buffalo	2-10
128	Fresno State	1-11

2016 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M
Week 4 Texas A&M
Week 5 Tennessee
Week 6 Texas A&M
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Alabama
Week 10 Alabama
Week 11 Alabama
Week 12 Alabama
Week 13 Alabama
Week 14 Alabama
Week 15 Alabama
Week 16 Alabama

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 16, Saturday

New England over Dallas

Cleveland won a game (!) Dallas clinched home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, Atlanta and Houston each clinched their divisions, the Giants and got a wildcard, and Carolina, Buffalo, Minnesota, and New Orleans have all been eliminated. Tampa is now in the Needs-A-Miracle slot, and they are also depending on Washington to tie to get them to the playoffs. I really hope if it comes down to needing a tie, that's the game they flex to prime time in week 17.

New England outscored the Jets 41-3 yesterday, skyrocketing their strength and causing them to now be 40% favorites to win the Super bowl. My records aren't perfectly easy to sort though, but I believe no team has ever crossed even 30% during the season before. The smart money's on them right now.

Oh yeah, Merry Christmas!

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	13-2	0.814	++	++	++	78.62	59.09	40.44
DAL	12-2	0.710	++	++	++	65.56	37.16	17.46
ATL	10-5	0.694	++	++	89.10	53.07	28.56	12.92
OAK	12-3	0.588	85.09	++	95.05	47.26	14.79	6.19
SEA	9-5-1	0.637	++	++	69.64	32.58	15.39	6.08
KC	10-4	0.598	14.91	95.27	64.73	25.20	9.46	4.05
PIT	9-5	0.634	70.26	77.92	46.15	23.05	8.50	3.95
GB	9-6	0.567	53.35	76.73	39.14	14.07	5.68	1.89
NYG	10-5	0.542	-	++	44.60	15.27	5.82	1.81
DET	9-5	0.536	46.65	82.49	40.23	13.84	5.15	1.57
MIA	10-5	0.508	-	87.99	40.11	9.57	3.43	1.18
BAL	8-6	0.597	29.74	29.74	16.61	8.04	2.62	1.12
WAS	8-6-1	0.541	-	40.78	17.30	5.62	2.24	0.70
HOU	9-6	0.397	++	++	32.96	7.16	1.55	0.39
DEN	8-6	0.595	-	9.07	4.39	1.10	0.57	0.24
TB	8-7	0.468	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
BUF	7-8	0.577	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	6-9	0.547	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	6-8-1	0.535	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	7-8	0.534	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	7-8	0.528	-	-	-	-	-	-
SD	5-10	0.495	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	8-7	0.492	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	5-9-1	0.484	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	7-8	0.481	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	6-9	0.440	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	3-12	0.343	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	3-12	0.306	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	2-13	0.218	-	-	-	-	-	-
LA	4-11	0.214	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-11	0.208	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	1-14	0.175	-	-	-	-	-	-

2016-12-23

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 16, Thursday

New England over Dallas

Going into Thursday, Philadelphia was just barely behind New York in strength, despite being 5 games back. They're now actually ahead of the Giants, but all that makes them is the strongest team already eliminated from the playoffs. If I adjusted for homefield advantage, which I'm strongly considering in version 0.2 of my software, they might have even been favored.

FiveThirtyEight helpfully cleared up my Carolina conundrum. As it turns out, they just need Washington to tie against either Chicago or the Giants. They also need a bunch of other games to go just right so that there's a 5-way tie, which they'll come out of on top. It's an exceedingly unlikely scenario, and I've given each game a 1% chance of a tie yet again, to keep Carolina properly alive. They use slightly different projection models than I do, so FiveThirtyEight has Cleveland about 65% likely to go 0-16, while my numbers (that I don't publish, but my software does output) show about a 73% chance.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	12-2	0.756	++	++	++	70.58	48.20	29.67
DAL	12-2	0.710	++	++	++	66.32	38.90	20.96
SEA	9-4-1	0.649	++	++	89.83	48.81	23.68	11.19
ATL	9-5	0.667	82.08	97.14	69.93	36.68	19.04	9.36
OAK	11-3	0.574	66.22	++	85.00	39.42	14.59	6.05
PIT	9-5	0.634	70.37	87.05	53.46	27.39	12.16	5.78
KC	10-4	0.598	33.78	97.37	68.41	30.97	12.79	5.59
NYG	10-5	0.542	-	99.60	47.27	16.62	6.48	2.39
DET	9-5	0.536	57.06	77.30	39.13	14.05	5.31	1.92
BAL	8-6	0.597	29.63	45.05	22.82	10.08	4.27	1.87
GB	8-6	0.544	42.94	55.66	26.89	9.47	3.70	1.37
TEN	8-6	0.533	52.95	53.88	24.38	8.57	3.16	1.19
MIA	9-5	0.502	-	49.71	20.98	6.07	2.29	0.79
DEN	8-6	0.595	-	16.88	8.10	2.61	1.34	0.58
TB	8-6	0.482	17.92	43.61	16.65	5.01	1.72	0.54
WAS	7-6-1	0.504	-	22.69	8.70	2.56	0.99	0.33
HOU	8-6	0.396	43.55	44.83	14.46	3.50	0.88	0.23
IND	7-7	0.543	3.50	4.11	1.88	0.65	0.25	0.10
MIN	7-7	0.512	-	3.87	1.54	0.46	0.18	0.06
BUF	7-7	0.585	-	1.12	0.50	0.16	0.08	0.03
NO	6-8	0.523	-	0.13	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00
CAR	6-8	0.472	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
PHI	6-9	0.547	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	5-8-1	0.529	-	-	-	-	-	-
SD	5-9	0.500	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	5-8-1	0.489	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	3-11	0.341	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-12	0.304	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-10	0.270	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	1-13	0.224	-	-	-	-	-	-
LA	4-10	0.219	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-14	0.182	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: New England (Week 15, Sunday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Final] New England over Dallas

2016-12-22

Bowl Pick 'Em Contest Winnings, Part XXVIII

College football ~~will be here again before we know it~~ IS HERE, so I've got to get my prize from last season's Bowl Pick 'Em contest at Cards on Cards posted! My prize for a second place tie was a very generously sized box of cards, so I felt a bit overwhelmed even sorting through them. I finally sorted them out by player, and, as usual, I'll plan to post them all eventually, but I might quit halfway through, we'll see.

Part I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII XVIII XIX XX
XXI XXII XXIII XXIV XXV XXVI XXVII

I'm averaging fewer and fewer cards per post as I'm getting down to a lot of cards that represent the only card of a given player AND a given set. At least I had a handful of Chris Duncans and 2006 Fleer cards.

2005 Topps Opening Day #47 Jason Marquis
2005 Topps Update #UH269 Stu Pomeranz
2006 Fleer #85 Jason Isringhausen
2006 Fleer #86 Tyler Johnson
2006 Fleer #89 Chris Duncan (x2)
2006 Fleer #321 Aaron Miles
2006 Topps 52 #233 Chris Duncan
2007 Upper Deck Future Stars #89 Chris Duncan

Stu Pomeranz never actually played for the Cardinals, and only pitched 6 innings over 3 total games in 2012, which appears to be his last professional baseball. I totally forgot Aaron Miles went to the Cubs for a year and came back. He was a handy blowout pitcher, taking the mound 5 different times for 5 total innings, and only allowing 2 runs total.

2016-12-20

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 15, Final

New England over Dallas

Carolina refused to eliminate themselves with a loss last night, so I felt compelled to simulate todays' runs with ties included. I implemented that in my software a few years ago, but it's a parameter I can set when I run them, and I usually leave it at 0 to hit as many edge cases as possible just involving wins and losses. But, these numbers include a 1% shot of any given game ending in a tie. There's probably a smarter way to do this, having closely matched games more likely to end in a tie and mismatches less likely, but I haven't quite worked out the math on that yet. For an approximation though, I'd say 1% is a decent to generous overall estimate. Carolina is still less than 0.005% likely to make the playoffs.

I had a well-reasoned comment from Josh D on yesterday's post, asking why I sort on strength instead of one of the columns that represents a team's chances, like making the playoffs, or winning the Superbowl. That would bump all the eliminated teams to the bottom. In an ideal world, I'd figure out how to get JavaScript table sorting working, much like what you see on many Wikipedia tables. I've got the script, but the last time I tried to make it work on blogger it didn't take. I'd kind of like to see both views, to be honest. This one shows something interesting, that it's not always the "top 12" teams that make the playoffs, either due to divisional or conference alignment, or unluckiness of results despite a theoretically strong team (like 5-9 Philadelphia that is thousandths of a point stronger than 9-5 Detroit). On the other hand, it'd be nice to see a view that shows me New England, Dallas, and Seattle in order as the teams most likely to win the Superbowl, instead of stronger-but-more-weakly-positioned Atlanta in their midst. Assuming it's not a ton of work, I think I'll change the sorting starting next week and see how I like it.

I've been thinking about fully revamping my software for awhile now, to add a few features, make the C++ less terrible, and possibly make it generic enough to handle any league via configurable tiebreakers and playoff spots. I'd also make it handle numbers bigger than 32-bit, so I can do more than 2.1 billion runs. To allow for that, I'd probably make it multi-threaded, or even distributed, but that depends on me finding a whole bunch of free time.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	12-2	0.756	++	++	++	70.57	48.20	29.70
DAL	12-2	0.710	97.18	++	98.98	65.22	38.27	20.63
ATL	9-5	0.667	82.11	97.21	69.79	36.53	18.97	9.33
SEA	9-4-1	0.649	++	++	89.69	48.57	23.57	11.12
PIT	9-5	0.634	70.38	87.07	53.48	27.41	12.15	5.77
KC	10-4	0.598	33.76	97.37	68.40	30.96	12.79	5.60
BAL	8-6	0.597	29.62	45.05	22.82	10.07	4.26	1.87
DEN	8-6	0.595	-	16.90	8.11	2.62	1.35	0.58
BUF	7-7	0.585	-	1.11	0.50	0.16	0.08	0.03
OAK	11-3	0.574	66.24	++	85.01	39.42	14.59	6.06
NYG	10-4	0.555	2.82	99.81	50.39	18.58	7.46	2.83
GB	8-6	0.544	42.94	55.81	26.32	9.33	3.64	1.35
IND	7-7	0.543	3.50	4.11	1.89	0.65	0.25	0.10
PHI	5-9	0.536	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	9-5	0.536	57.06	77.44	38.54	13.86	5.25	1.90
TEN	8-6	0.533	52.94	53.88	24.38	8.57	3.16	1.19
ARI	5-8-1	0.529	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	6-8	0.523	-	0.13	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00
MIN	7-7	0.512	-	3.93	1.56	0.48	0.19	0.06
WAS	7-6-1	0.504	-	22.10	8.46	2.49	0.96	0.32
MIA	9-5	0.502	-	49.67	20.96	6.06	2.28	0.80
SD	5-9	0.500	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	5-8-1	0.489	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	8-6	0.482	17.89	43.57	16.22	4.91	1.68	0.53
CAR	6-8	0.472	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
HOU	8-6	0.396	43.56	44.83	14.45	3.50	0.88	0.23
CHI	3-11	0.341	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-12	0.304	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-10	0.270	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	1-13	0.224	-	-	-	-	-	-
LA	4-10	0.219	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-14	0.182	-	-	-	-	-	-

2016-12-19

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 15, Sunday

New England over Dallas

New England clinched their division and a first round bye all at once. Oakland also clinched at least a playoff spot. Cincinnati, Arizona, and Philadelphia were all eliminated from the playoffs. I'm also showing Carolina as eliminated, but that's because by default I don't simulate ties. I worked out that they need to beat Washington Monday night, and have Washington and Chicago to tie next week to have any chance of making the playoffs. That's because Washington needs to be 7-7-2 to effectively be tied with Carolina at 8-8, and they would of course have the head to head tiebreaker based on the Monday night win. Since games end in ties less than 1% of the time, I'm pretty comfortable saying Carolina won't be in the playoffs. But, with a win tonight, they remain mathematically alive for another week.

Cleveland is now 0-14, and I've got them with a 72% chance of losing both remaining games. I'm excited about it, how about you?

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	12-2	0.756	++	++	++	70.55	48.17	29.70
DAL	12-2	0.710	97.17	++	98.96	65.22	38.32	20.66
ATL	9-5	0.667	81.67	93.99	67.30	35.38	18.35	9.02
SEA	9-4-1	0.649	++	++	89.44	48.61	23.63	11.16
PIT	9-5	0.634	69.88	87.02	53.57	27.41	12.17	5.79
KC	10-4	0.598	34.57	97.21	68.45	31.05	12.81	5.62
BAL	8-6	0.597	30.12	46.00	23.30	10.27	4.35	1.91
DEN	8-6	0.595	-	16.67	8.00	2.59	1.33	0.58
BUF	7-7	0.585	-	1.09	0.49	0.16	0.08	0.03
OAK	11-3	0.574	65.43	++	84.66	39.22	14.53	6.04
NYG	10-4	0.555	2.83	97.94	49.06	18.04	7.28	2.77
GB	8-6	0.545	43.26	50.53	24.22	8.64	3.35	1.24
IND	7-7	0.543	3.56	4.24	1.94	0.66	0.26	0.10
PHI	5-9	0.536	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	9-5	0.536	56.74	70.09	36.11	13.15	4.94	1.79
TEN	8-6	0.533	52.82	53.69	24.30	8.54	3.15	1.18
ARI	5-8-1	0.529	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	7-5-1	0.524	-	49.52	20.47	6.53	2.60	0.92
NO	6-8	0.523	-	0.05	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00
MIN	7-7	0.512	-	2.05	0.82	0.25	0.10	0.03
MIA	9-5	0.502	-	49.16	20.80	6.03	2.27	0.79
SD	5-9	0.500	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	5-8-1	0.489	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	8-6	0.482	18.33	35.83	13.59	4.17	1.43	0.45
CAR	5-8	0.452	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	8-6	0.396	43.62	44.91	14.49	3.52	0.88	0.23
CHI	3-11	0.341	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-12	0.304	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-10	0.270	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	1-13	0.224	-	-	-	-	-	-
LA	4-10	0.219	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-14	0.182	-	-	-	-	-	-