Tenets of Wilson: 2023-10

2023-10-31

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 8, Final

Baltimore over Dallas

Detroit defeated Las Vegas, which I though might have given Kansas City enough of a boost in their division chances push them back atop the AFC, but it wasn't quite enough.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	6-2	0.650	75.7	93.6	67.7	39.6	22.4	12.7
DAL	5-2	0.629	37.8	92.6	62.8	35.6	19.9	10.5
KC	6-2	0.617	91.3	96.2	68.3	37.1	19.4	10.3
SF	5-3	0.635	59.1	89.8	58.9	33.9	19.2	10.3
PHI	7-1	0.587	62.1	99.1	72.6	37.9	19.2	9.3
BUF	5-3	0.646	39.6	78.2	49.3	27.8	15.5	8.7
MIA	6-2	0.593	49.1	87.0	53.7	27.3	13.5	6.9
DET	6-2	0.565	76.9	93.3	55.0	27.0	12.9	6.0
JAX	6-2	0.572	75.2	88.7	52.4	25.1	11.7	5.7
SEA	5-2	0.558	38.1	83.0	46.2	22.2	10.5	4.8
NO	4-4	0.536	48.5	62.5	29.7	13.4	6.0	2.6
MIN	4-4	0.527	21.0	60.9	28.6	12.6	5.6	2.4
CLE	4-3	0.531	13.0	54.6	25.8	11.1	4.8	2.1
HOU	3-4	0.543	15.6	39.9	18.9	8.3	3.7	1.7
NYJ	4-3	0.493	11.3	40.4	17.2	6.8	2.7	1.1
TB	3-4	0.483	20.8	34.8	14.3	5.7	2.3	0.9
ATL	4-4	0.447	30.1	42.8	16.0	5.8	2.1	0.7
LAC	3-4	0.511	7.0	22.6	9.8	4.0	1.7	0.7
CIN	4-3	0.471	4.2	22.6	9.0	3.3	1.3	0.5
LAR	3-5	0.483	2.8	17.7	7.2	2.9	1.2	0.4
TEN	3-4	0.482	6.4	18.1	7.3	2.8	1.1	0.4
PIT	4-3	0.424	7.1	31.2	10.9	3.6	1.2	0.4
IND	3-5	0.462	2.7	18.4	6.9	2.5	0.9	0.3
GB	2-5	0.467	1.6	12.4	4.9	1.9	0.7	0.3
WSH	3-5	0.406	0.1	5.8	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.1
DEN	3-5	0.410	0.6	4.3	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
CHI	2-6	0.419	0.5	3.4	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
LV	3-5	0.376	1.1	3.4	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0
CAR	1-6	0.380	0.6	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	2-6	0.339	0.0	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-6	0.321	0.0	0.9	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
ARI	1-7	0.390	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas

2023-10-30

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Baltimore over Dallas

We don't usually lose both conference favorites in one day this late in the season. Both lost on Sunday. Baltimore and Dallas were both conference favorites earlier in the season, but not since week 2. And sort of out of nowhere, Philadelphia is the first team to a 99% chance of making the playoffs.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	6-2	0.650	75.7	93.5	67.8	39.6	22.5	12.8
DAL	5-2	0.629	38.0	92.9	63.9	36.5	20.5	10.8
SF	5-3	0.635	59.1	90.0	59.8	34.8	19.7	10.5
KC	6-2	0.618	90.0	95.6	67.7	36.8	19.2	10.3
PHI	7-1	0.587	61.9	99.1	73.5	38.6	19.7	9.5
BUF	5-3	0.646	40.0	78.2	49.4	27.9	15.6	8.8
MIA	6-2	0.593	48.8	86.6	53.5	27.2	13.4	6.9
JAX	6-2	0.572	75.2	88.6	52.6	25.2	11.8	5.7
SEA	5-2	0.558	38.1	83.4	47.2	22.8	10.8	4.9
DET	5-2	0.543	68.9	88.0	47.9	22.3	10.2	4.5
NO	4-4	0.536	48.8	63.3	30.5	13.8	6.3	2.7
MIN	4-4	0.527	27.8	62.5	29.7	13.2	5.9	2.5
CLE	4-3	0.531	13.0	54.4	25.8	11.1	4.8	2.1
HOU	3-4	0.543	15.7	39.7	18.9	8.3	3.7	1.7
NYJ	4-3	0.493	11.2	39.7	16.9	6.7	2.6	1.1
TB	3-4	0.483	20.7	34.8	14.4	5.8	2.3	0.9
ATL	4-4	0.447	29.9	42.9	16.2	5.9	2.2	0.8
LAC	3-4	0.511	7.1	22.4	9.8	4.0	1.7	0.7
CIN	4-3	0.471	4.2	22.4	8.9	3.3	1.3	0.5
LAR	3-5	0.483	2.8	18.1	7.5	3.0	1.2	0.5
TEN	3-4	0.482	6.5	18.0	7.3	2.8	1.1	0.4
PIT	4-3	0.424	7.1	31.1	10.9	3.6	1.2	0.4
IND	3-5	0.462	2.7	17.9	6.7	2.4	0.9	0.3
GB	2-5	0.467	2.4	13.1	5.3	2.0	0.8	0.3
WSH	3-5	0.406	0.0	5.9	2.1	0.7	0.2	0.1
LV	3-4	0.399	2.3	6.8	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.1
CHI	2-6	0.419	0.9	3.8	1.3	0.5	0.2	0.1
DEN	3-5	0.410	0.6	4.2	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
CAR	1-6	0.380	0.6	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	2-6	0.339	0.0	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-6	0.321	0.0	0.9	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
ARI	1-7	0.390	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

2023-10-29

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 9

The Errors:
None! Sort of. 3 games have corrected scores, but with the same results, and I don't use points in these rankings, so Week 8 is still solid. Two of the games were all the way back in Week 6, and one was Week 8.

The Top:
Michigan took the week off and lost their top spot to their top rival and last week's #2, Ohio State. We've got some smaller schools sneaking up the rankings, too, with James Madison at #3 and Liberty at #7.

The Home Team:
Missouri was also off, and fell to #14 for it.

The Bottom:
Former #133 Akron was also off, and Sam Houston State managed to grab that slot from them with a loss.

Winless and Lossless:
There are now 8 undefeated teams, down from 9, with Oklahoma losing to Kansas. As mentioned above, Sam Houston State lost again, so they remain the only winless team.

1	Ohio State	8-0
2	Florida State	8-0
3	James Madison	8-0
4	Michigan	8-0
5	Washington	8-0
6	Georgia	8-0
7	Liberty	8-0
8	Texas	7-1
9	Ole Miss	7-1
10	Air Force	8-0
11	Notre Dame	7-2
12	Alabama	7-1
13	Penn State	7-1
14	Missouri	7-1
15	Oklahoma	7-1
16	Oregon	7-1
17	Louisville	7-1
18	USC	7-2
19	Tulane	7-1
20	Utah	6-2
21	Toledo	7-1
22	Fresno State	7-1
23	UCLA	6-2
24	Jacksonville State	7-2
25	Tennessee	6-2
26	Kansas State	6-2
27	Miami (OH)	7-2
28	Oregon State	6-2
29	Kansas	6-2
30	LSU	6-2
31	Oklahoma State	6-2
32	Troy	6-2
33	Iowa	6-2
34	Georgia State	6-2
35	Miami	6-2
36	North Carolina	6-2
37	Memphis	6-2
38	Georgia Southern	6-2
39	Rutgers	6-2
40	UNLV	6-2
41	Duke	5-3
42	Coastal Carolina	5-3
43	Minnesota	5-3
44	Ohio	6-3
45	Iowa State	5-3
46	Wyoming	5-3
47	Wisconsin	5-3
48	SMU	6-2
49	Arizona	5-3
50	NC State	5-3
51	Nebraska	5-3
52	West Virginia	5-3
53	Kentucky	5-3
54	Boston College	5-3
55	Texas A&M	5-3
56	Florida	5-3
57	Louisiana	5-3
58	Texas State	5-3
59	BYU	5-3
60	New Mexico State	6-3
61	Maryland	5-3
62	Georgia Tech	4-4
63	Northwestern	4-4
64	Auburn	4-4
65	UT San Antonio	5-3
66	Clemson	4-4
67	Bowling Green	4-4
68	Marshall	4-4
69	Western Kentucky	4-4
70	TCU	4-4
71	Colorado	4-4
72	Boise State	4-4
73	Washington State	4-4
74	Northern Illinois	4-4
75	Virginia Tech	4-4
76	San José State	4-5
77	Wake Forest	4-4
78	South Florida	4-4
79	South Alabama	4-4
80	Mississippi State	4-4
81	Syracuse	4-4
82	Old Dominion	4-4
83	Florida Atlantic	4-4
84	Arkansas State	4-4
85	Appalachian State	4-4
86	California	3-5
87	Rice	4-4
88	Illinois	3-5
89	Central Michigan	4-4
90	Texas Tech	3-5
91	UCF	3-5
92	Utah State	3-5
93	Navy	3-4
94	Eastern Michigan	4-5
95	San Diego State	3-5
96	Florida International	4-5
97	Houston	3-5
98	Baylor	3-5
99	Tulsa	3-5
100	Colorado State	3-5
101	South Carolina	2-6
102	Western Michigan	3-6
103	Buffalo	3-5
104	UTEP	3-6
105	Virginia	2-6
106	Michigan State	2-6
107	North Texas	3-5
108	Stanford	2-6
109	Purdue	2-6
110	Arizona State	2-6
111	New Mexico	3-5
112	Nevada	2-6
113	Arkansas	2-6
114	UAB	2-6
115	Indiana	2-6
116	Vanderbilt	2-7
117	Cincinnati	2-6
118	Middle Tennessee	2-6
119	Louisiana Tech	3-6
120	Pittsburgh	2-6
121	Ball State	2-6
122	UMass	2-7
123	Louisiana Monroe	2-6
124	Charlotte	2-6
125	Army	2-6
126	Hawai'i	2-7
127	Temple	2-6
128	Southern Mississippi	1-7
129	Connecticut	1-7
130	East Carolina	1-7
131	Kent State	1-7
132	Akron	1-7
133	Sam Houston State	0-8

2023 History and #1s
Week 1 Jacksonville State and San Diego State
Week 2 Notre Dame
Week 3 Notre Dame
Week 4 Penn State
Week 5 Texas
Week 6 Oklahoma
Week 7 Michigan
Week 8 Michigan

2023-10-27

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 8, Thursday

San Francisco over Kansas City

Buffalo is quietly creeping back up the charts with another win on Thursday over Tampa Bay. They're still third in the AFC behind Kansas City and Baltimore though. As a side effect, San Francisco is the overall most likely champion again, partially because the NFC is now weaker overall, and partially because their game against Tampa Bay is now against a team projected to be weaker than they were last week.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	5-2	0.648	74.7	95.0	71.2	43.7	26.1	14.4
KC	6-1	0.634	97.0	98.8	80.2	46.2	25.4	14.2
BAL	5-2	0.641	62.9	90.0	60.9	34.9	19.3	10.9
BUF	5-3	0.646	49.0	80.4	51.4	29.2	16.4	9.3
PHI	6-1	0.580	64.3	96.9	69.0	36.5	18.4	8.8
DAL	4-2	0.599	34.9	82.1	52.0	28.2	14.9	7.4
MIA	5-2	0.573	40.5	78.2	44.4	21.5	10.2	5.0
DET	5-2	0.542	73.5	87.7	50.3	24.0	11.1	4.9
SEA	4-2	0.550	20.1	71.7	39.8	19.1	9.1	4.1
JAX	5-2	0.550	58.3	78.6	42.0	19.1	8.6	4.1
CLE	4-2	0.539	21.6	66.1	33.0	14.6	6.4	3.0
HOU	3-3	0.545	29.6	55.0	27.4	12.2	5.4	2.5
NO	3-4	0.514	32.1	46.3	21.8	9.5	4.1	1.7
LAR	3-4	0.529	5.2	36.9	17.9	8.1	3.7	1.6
MIN	3-4	0.498	16.2	41.1	18.7	7.8	3.3	1.3
ATL	4-3	0.456	46.1	57.7	23.8	9.1	3.4	1.2
TB	3-4	0.483	21.4	34.3	14.8	6.0	2.5	0.9
GB	2-4	0.496	7.8	27.8	12.5	5.2	2.2	0.9
PIT	4-2	0.447	13.9	47.2	18.7	6.6	2.3	0.9
NYJ	3-3	0.487	10.2	32.8	13.8	5.4	2.1	0.9
IND	3-4	0.479	7.7	28.6	11.6	4.4	1.7	0.7
LAC	2-4	0.481	1.7	11.9	4.8	1.8	0.7	0.3
TEN	2-4	0.470	4.5	11.6	4.6	1.7	0.6	0.3
CHI	2-5	0.448	2.5	8.9	3.5	1.3	0.5	0.2
CIN	3-3	0.440	1.6	10.3	3.8	1.3	0.5	0.2
WSH	3-4	0.413	0.7	10.4	3.8	1.3	0.5	0.1
LV	3-4	0.399	1.2	6.8	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.1
NE	2-5	0.360	0.3	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0
DEN	2-5	0.395	0.1	1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-5	0.338	0.1	2.1	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0
CAR	0-6	0.388	0.4	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
ARI	1-6	0.400	0.0	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City

2023-10-24

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 7, Final

San Francisco over Kansas City

San Francisco lost their Monday night game, and likely would have been the first team to a 99% playoff chance with a win. Because they are still a stronger team than Kansas City (.648 to .634), the projection does not flip, even though KC is now the most likely champion overall.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	6-1	0.634	97.0	98.8	81.0	47.1	26.1	14.6
SF	5-2	0.648	74.5	94.7	70.7	43.4	25.9	14.4
BAL	5-2	0.641	62.9	90.4	61.5	35.6	19.9	11.2
PHI	6-1	0.580	64.3	96.8	68.9	36.5	18.4	8.9
DAL	4-2	0.599	34.9	81.6	51.7	28.0	14.8	7.5
BUF	4-3	0.632	40.9	71.9	44.2	24.4	13.4	7.5
MIA	5-2	0.573	46.7	79.2	45.7	22.4	10.7	5.3
DET	5-2	0.542	73.6	87.5	50.1	23.9	11.1	4.9
JAX	5-2	0.550	58.3	79.1	42.6	19.6	8.8	4.2
SEA	4-2	0.550	20.2	71.0	39.3	18.8	9.0	4.1
CLE	4-2	0.539	21.6	66.9	33.7	15.1	6.7	3.1
HOU	3-3	0.545	29.6	55.6	27.9	12.5	5.6	2.6
NO	3-4	0.514	28.8	44.1	20.7	9.0	3.9	1.7
LAR	3-4	0.529	5.2	36.2	17.5	7.9	3.6	1.6
TB	3-3	0.497	28.4	44.1	20.0	8.4	3.5	1.4
MIN	3-4	0.498	16.2	40.2	18.2	7.7	3.2	1.3
ATL	4-3	0.456	42.4	55.4	22.9	8.7	3.3	1.2
NYJ	3-3	0.487	12.1	34.1	14.5	5.7	2.3	0.9
PIT	4-2	0.447	13.9	48.2	19.3	6.9	2.4	0.9
GB	2-4	0.496	7.7	26.9	12.0	5.0	2.1	0.9
IND	3-4	0.479	7.7	29.2	12.0	4.6	1.8	0.7
LAC	2-4	0.481	1.7	12.6	5.2	2.0	0.8	0.3
TEN	2-4	0.470	4.5	11.9	4.8	1.8	0.7	0.3
CIN	3-3	0.440	1.6	10.9	4.1	1.4	0.5	0.2
CHI	2-5	0.448	2.5	8.7	3.4	1.3	0.5	0.2
WSH	3-4	0.413	0.7	10.0	3.7	1.3	0.4	0.1
LV	3-4	0.399	1.2	7.0	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1
NE	2-5	0.360	0.4	2.5	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0
DEN	2-5	0.395	0.1	1.7	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0
NYG	2-5	0.338	0.1	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0
ARI	1-6	0.400	0.0	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	0-6	0.388	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City

2023-10-23

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 7, Sunday

San Francisco over Kansas City

Kansas City wins again, and the top of the charts stay the same again.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	5-1	0.642	80.1	97.2	76.4	46.5	27.5	15.0
KC	6-1	0.634	97.0	98.8	80.9	47.0	26.1	14.6
BAL	5-2	0.641	63.0	90.5	61.5	35.7	19.9	11.3
PHI	6-1	0.580	64.3	97.0	67.3	35.7	18.0	8.7
BUF	4-3	0.632	40.9	71.9	44.2	24.4	13.4	7.4
DAL	4-2	0.599	34.8	82.5	51.3	27.8	14.7	7.4
MIA	5-2	0.573	46.7	79.1	45.7	22.4	10.7	5.3
DET	5-2	0.542	78.2	88.8	49.6	23.7	10.9	4.9
JAX	5-2	0.551	58.4	79.2	42.6	19.6	8.9	4.2
SEA	4-2	0.550	16.1	72.8	40.1	19.1	9.1	4.1
CLE	4-2	0.539	21.6	66.9	33.7	15.1	6.7	3.1
HOU	3-3	0.545	29.5	55.6	27.9	12.5	5.6	2.6
NO	3-4	0.514	28.9	44.9	21.0	9.1	4.0	1.7
LAR	3-4	0.529	3.8	38.1	18.5	8.2	3.8	1.6
TB	3-3	0.497	28.4	45.0	20.3	8.5	3.6	1.4
ATL	4-3	0.456	42.4	56.3	23.0	8.7	3.3	1.2
NYJ	3-3	0.487	12.1	34.0	14.5	5.7	2.3	0.9
PIT	4-2	0.447	13.8	48.2	19.3	6.8	2.4	0.9
GB	2-4	0.496	8.5	28.3	12.6	5.2	2.2	0.9
MIN	2-4	0.488	10.3	25.6	11.2	4.6	1.9	0.7
IND	3-4	0.479	7.7	29.2	12.0	4.5	1.8	0.7
LAC	2-4	0.481	1.7	12.5	5.1	2.0	0.8	0.3
TEN	2-4	0.470	4.5	11.8	4.8	1.8	0.7	0.3
CIN	3-3	0.440	1.6	11.0	4.1	1.4	0.5	0.2
CHI	2-5	0.448	3.0	9.3	3.6	1.3	0.5	0.2
WSH	3-4	0.413	0.7	10.8	4.0	1.3	0.5	0.2
LV	3-4	0.399	1.2	7.1	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1
NE	2-5	0.360	0.4	2.5	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0
DEN	2-5	0.395	0.1	1.7	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0
NYG	2-5	0.338	0.1	2.2	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0
ARI	1-6	0.400	0.0	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	0-6	0.388	0.3	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City

2023-10-22

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 8

The Errors:
None! Week 7's post is good as-is.

The Top:
Finally, some stability, as Michigan retains their #1 spot. Georgia did fall from #2 all the way to #9 due their bye, and the same happened to Notre Dame from #3 down to #13.

The Home Team:
Missouri holds steady at #4 with a win. While Georgia and Notre Dame dropped below them, Ohio State and Florida State leapfrogged them by beating Penn State and Duke, while Missouri beat lowly South Carolina.

The Bottom:
Akron lost again and holds onto the #133 slot with a 1-7 record.

Winless and Lossless:
There are now 9 undefeated teams, down from 11. Nevada won, leaving Sam Houston State as the only winless team.

1	Michigan	8-0
2	Ohio State	7-0
3	Florida State	7-0
4	Missouri	7-1
5	Alabama	7-1
6	Oklahoma	7-0
7	James Madison	7-0
8	Washington	7-0
9	Georgia	7-0
10	Liberty	7-0
11	Texas	6-1
12	Air Force	7-0
13	Notre Dame	6-2
14	Ole Miss	6-1
15	Utah	6-1
16	Penn State	6-1
17	Oregon State	6-1
18	Toledo	7-1
19	LSU	6-2
20	Oregon	6-1
21	Georgia State	6-1
22	Iowa	6-2
23	North Carolina	6-1
24	Tulane	6-1
25	Louisville	6-1
26	USC	6-2
27	Rutgers	6-2
28	UNLV	6-1
29	UCLA	5-2
30	Duke	5-2
31	Jacksonville State	6-2
32	Kansas State	5-2
33	Fresno State	6-1
34	Oklahoma State	5-2
35	Tennessee	5-2
36	Wyoming	5-2
37	Wisconsin	5-2
38	Ohio	6-2
39	Troy	5-2
40	Miami (OH)	6-2
41	Kansas	5-2
42	Miami	5-2
43	Kentucky	5-2
44	Memphis	5-2
45	Florida	5-2
46	Georgia Southern	5-2
47	Maryland	5-2
48	Minnesota	4-3
49	Iowa State	4-3
50	Texas State	5-2
T-51	SMU	5-2
T-51	BYU	5-2
53	Clemson	4-3
54	Coastal Carolina	4-3
55	Washington State	4-3
56	Marshall	4-3
57	Nebraska	4-3
58	Boston College	4-3
59	Western Kentucky	4-3
60	NC State	4-3
61	Bowling Green	4-4
62	West Virginia	4-3
63	TCU	4-4
64	Colorado	4-3
65	Texas A&M	4-3
66	Arizona	4-3
67	Syracuse	4-3
68	Northern Illinois	4-4
69	South Alabama	4-3
70	Mississippi State	4-3
71	Louisiana	4-3
72	New Mexico State	5-3
73	South Florida	4-4
74	Wake Forest	4-3
75	UT San Antonio	4-3
76	Old Dominion	4-3
77	Rice	4-3
78	Central Michigan	4-4
79	Georgia Tech	3-4
80	California	3-4
81	Illinois	3-5
82	Auburn	3-4
83	Northwestern	3-4
84	Eastern Michigan	4-4
85	Texas Tech	3-5
86	UCF	3-4
87	San José State	3-5
88	Virginia Tech	3-4
89	Boise State	3-4
90	Navy	3-4
91	Utah State	3-5
92	Florida Atlantic	3-4
93	Houston	3-4
94	Baylor	3-4
95	Florida International	4-4
96	Tulsa	3-4
97	San Diego State	3-5
98	South Carolina	2-5
99	Appalachian State	3-4
100	Colorado State	3-4
101	Arkansas State	3-4
102	Michigan State	2-5
103	North Texas	3-4
104	Buffalo	3-5
105	Virginia	2-5
106	Purdue	2-5
107	New Mexico	3-4
108	Stanford	2-5
109	Vanderbilt	2-6
110	Arkansas	2-6
111	Louisiana Tech	3-5
112	Indiana	2-5
113	Middle Tennessee	2-6
114	Cincinnati	2-5
115	UAB	2-6
116	Western Michigan	2-6
117	UTEP	2-6
118	Charlotte	2-5
119	Louisiana Monroe	2-5
120	Army	2-5
121	Pittsburgh	2-5
122	Ball State	2-6
123	Hawai'i	2-6
124	Nevada	1-6
125	Temple	2-6
126	Arizona State	1-6
127	Southern Mississippi	1-6
128	Connecticut	1-6
129	UMass	1-7
130	East Carolina	1-6
131	Kent State	1-7
132	Sam Houston State	0-7
133	Akron	1-7

2023 History and #1s
Week 1 Jacksonville State and San Diego State
Week 2 Notre Dame
Week 3 Notre Dame
Week 4 Penn State
Week 5 Texas
Week 6 Oklahoma
Week 7 Michigan

2023-10-20

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 7, Thursday

San Francisco over Kansas City

I know it's not true, but it seems like Jacksonville plays a half-dozen Thursday games every year. They beat New Orleans to start Week 7. They now have 5 wins, tied for the league lead, but 2 losses, so they remain behind Kansas City, Buffalo, Miami, and Baltimore in the AFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	5-1	0.642	81.8	97.0	76.1	46.1	27.1	15.3
KC	5-1	0.613	87.2	94.8	70.5	39.6	21.5	11.5
BUF	4-2	0.633	46.8	84.1	56.4	32.6	18.5	10.3
DET	5-1	0.593	86.9	95.1	64.4	34.9	18.0	9.2
MIA	5-1	0.585	46.7	86.7	55.9	29.2	14.9	7.5
DAL	4-2	0.599	43.8	80.5	49.2	26.4	13.9	7.2
BAL	4-2	0.590	51.6	75.4	45.2	23.5	12.0	6.1
PHI	5-1	0.556	52.5	91.0	55.4	27.2	12.9	6.1
JAX	5-2	0.551	57.7	79.0	43.8	20.9	9.8	4.6
CLE	3-2	0.544	30.1	59.0	30.9	14.4	6.7	3.1
HOU	3-3	0.545	27.0	53.3	27.3	12.7	5.9	2.7
SEA	3-2	0.530	10.2	55.7	28.2	12.6	5.7	2.6
LAR	3-3	0.542	8.0	51.7	25.9	11.9	5.6	2.6
TB	3-2	0.505	47.3	60.8	28.8	12.2	5.2	2.2
NO	3-4	0.514	25.8	41.7	19.6	8.4	3.7	1.6
GB	2-3	0.500	7.6	36.9	16.6	6.9	2.9	1.2
IND	3-3	0.479	11.1	38.6	16.6	6.6	2.6	1.1
NYJ	3-3	0.487	6.4	30.1	13.2	5.4	2.2	0.9
LAC	2-3	0.505	8.0	24.1	11.0	4.7	2.0	0.9
ATL	3-3	0.451	26.6	38.7	15.6	5.8	2.2	0.8
MIN	2-4	0.488	5.0	21.1	9.1	3.7	1.5	0.6
PIT	3-2	0.433	14.5	33.7	13.3	4.7	1.7	0.6
WSH	3-3	0.431	3.5	22.3	8.5	3.0	1.1	0.4
TEN	2-4	0.470	4.1	11.4	4.7	1.8	0.7	0.3
LV	3-3	0.433	4.6	15.8	6.0	2.1	0.8	0.3
CIN	3-3	0.440	3.9	12.1	4.7	1.7	0.6	0.2
CHI	1-5	0.423	0.6	3.5	1.2	0.4	0.2	0.1
ARI	1-5	0.421	0.1	2.1	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0
DEN	1-5	0.399	0.2	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYG	1-5	0.350	0.1	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	1-5	0.359	0.1	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	0-6	0.388	0.4	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City

2023-10-17

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 6, Final

San Francisco over Kansas City

Dallas beat the LA Chargers on Monday to creep their way back up the table, but are still behind Detroit and San Francisco for the NFC lead.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	5-1	0.642	81.9	96.8	75.9	45.8	26.9	15.2
KC	5-1	0.613	87.2	94.9	70.9	40.0	21.8	11.6
BUF	4-2	0.633	46.8	84.7	57.3	33.2	18.9	10.5
DET	5-1	0.593	86.8	94.9	63.8	34.5	17.8	9.1
MIA	5-1	0.585	46.7	87.1	56.7	29.6	15.1	7.6
DAL	4-2	0.599	43.8	79.8	48.5	26.0	13.6	7.1
BAL	4-2	0.590	51.6	76.2	46.0	24.0	12.3	6.3
PHI	5-1	0.556	52.5	90.5	54.9	26.9	12.8	6.1
JAX	4-2	0.539	47.2	68.8	36.2	16.8	7.7	3.5
CLE	3-2	0.544	30.1	60.0	31.6	14.8	6.9	3.2
HOU	3-3	0.545	32.5	55.3	28.5	13.3	6.2	2.9
SEA	3-2	0.530	10.1	54.7	27.5	12.3	5.6	2.5
NO	3-3	0.533	36.0	54.7	27.3	12.3	5.5	2.5
LAR	3-3	0.542	7.8	50.1	25.0	11.5	5.4	2.5
TB	3-2	0.505	41.3	58.1	27.4	11.6	4.9	2.1
GB	2-3	0.500	7.7	36.0	16.1	6.7	2.8	1.2
IND	3-3	0.479	15.0	39.6	17.2	6.8	2.7	1.1
NYJ	3-3	0.487	6.4	30.8	13.6	5.5	2.3	0.9
LAC	2-3	0.505	8.0	24.7	11.3	4.8	2.1	0.9
ATL	3-3	0.451	22.4	35.6	14.4	5.3	2.0	0.7
PIT	3-2	0.433	14.5	34.8	13.8	4.9	1.8	0.6
MIN	2-4	0.488	5.0	20.1	8.6	3.5	1.5	0.6
WSH	3-3	0.431	3.5	21.7	8.2	2.9	1.0	0.4
TEN	2-4	0.470	5.3	12.4	5.2	2.0	0.8	0.3
LV	3-3	0.433	4.6	16.3	6.2	2.2	0.8	0.3
CIN	3-3	0.440	3.9	12.6	4.9	1.8	0.7	0.2
CHI	1-5	0.423	0.6	3.2	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
ARI	1-5	0.421	0.1	2.0	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0
DEN	1-5	0.399	0.2	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYG	1-5	0.350	0.1	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	1-5	0.359	0.1	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	0-6	0.388	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City

2023-10-16

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 6, Sunday

San Francisco over Kansas City

San Francisco lost but thanks to their immense strength advantage, they're still the most likely Superbowl champ and the NFC favorite.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	5-1	0.642	81.8	97.0	76.3	46.3	27.3	15.4
KC	5-1	0.613	84.5	94.4	70.4	39.7	21.6	11.6
BUF	4-2	0.633	46.8	84.2	57.0	33.1	18.8	10.5
DET	5-1	0.593	86.9	95.1	64.4	35.1	18.1	9.3
MIA	5-1	0.585	46.8	86.9	56.6	29.6	15.1	7.7
BAL	4-2	0.590	51.5	75.5	45.5	23.8	12.2	6.2
PHI	5-1	0.556	58.8	91.0	55.8	27.6	13.1	6.2
DAL	3-2	0.590	36.9	72.0	42.1	22.0	11.3	5.8
JAX	4-2	0.539	47.2	68.3	35.9	16.6	7.6	3.5
CLE	3-2	0.544	30.1	59.4	31.3	14.6	6.8	3.2
HOU	3-3	0.545	32.5	54.6	28.2	13.2	6.1	2.9
SEA	3-2	0.530	10.2	55.9	28.3	12.8	5.8	2.6
NO	3-3	0.533	36.0	55.3	27.8	12.6	5.7	2.6
LAR	3-3	0.542	7.9	51.4	25.8	11.9	5.6	2.6
TB	3-2	0.505	41.3	58.7	27.9	11.8	5.0	2.1
GB	2-3	0.500	7.6	36.8	16.6	7.0	3.0	1.2
LAC	2-2	0.510	11.1	32.1	15.2	6.6	2.9	1.2
IND	3-3	0.479	15.0	38.9	16.9	6.7	2.7	1.1
NYJ	3-3	0.487	6.4	30.0	13.2	5.4	2.2	0.9
ATL	3-3	0.451	22.4	36.2	14.7	5.4	2.0	0.8
MIN	2-4	0.488	4.9	20.7	9.0	3.7	1.5	0.6
PIT	3-2	0.433	14.5	34.1	13.5	4.8	1.7	0.6
WSH	3-3	0.431	4.2	22.6	8.7	3.1	1.1	0.4
TEN	2-4	0.470	5.3	12.1	5.0	1.9	0.8	0.3
LV	3-3	0.433	4.2	15.6	6.0	2.1	0.8	0.3
CIN	3-3	0.440	3.9	12.2	4.8	1.7	0.6	0.2
CHI	1-5	0.423	0.6	3.4	1.2	0.4	0.2	0.1
ARI	1-5	0.421	0.1	2.1	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0
DEN	1-5	0.399	0.1	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYG	1-5	0.350	0.2	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	1-5	0.359	0.1	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	0-6	0.388	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City

2023-10-15

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 7

I think I'm going to start covering the same points every week in a more organized fashion, instead of my variable-length ramble format.

The Errors:
My week 6 data had one bad game. Southern Utah beat Tarleton State 27-26, but as of my post I had the result flipped, 16-14. They missed 13 whole points! I figured by this point a single FCS vs FCS game would have almost no effect on the FBS-only rankings, but USC should have been #9 over Notre Dame, along with 18 other teams shuffling around by a position or two.

The Top:
We've got a new #1 again, Michigan, taking advantage of old #1 Oklahoma's bye week.

The Home Team:
Missouri beat #34 Kentucky, giving them a boost back up to #4 from #15, making that close loss to LSU hurt just a little bit more.

The Bottom:
Akron lost again and holds onto the #133 slot with a 1-6 record.

Winless and Lossless:
There are now 11 undefeated teams, down from 14, and both winless teams, Nevada and Sam Houston State, lost again.

1	Michigan	7-0
2	Georgia	7-0
3	Notre Dame	6-2
4	Missouri	6-1
5	Ohio State	6-0
6	Penn State	6-0
7	Oklahoma	6-0
8	Washington	6-0
9	Florida State	6-0
10	Oregon State	6-1
11	North Carolina	6-0
12	Alabama	6-1
13	James Madison	6-0
14	Iowa	6-1
15	Louisville	6-1
16	Liberty	6-0
17	Air Force	6-0
18	USC	6-1
19	Texas	5-1
20	Ole Miss	5-1
21	Duke	5-1
22	Utah	5-1
23	LSU	5-2
24	Fresno State	6-1
25	Wyoming	5-2
26	Troy	5-2
27	Oregon	5-1
28	Tennessee	5-1
29	Miami (OH)	6-1
30	Toledo	6-1
31	Georgia State	5-1
32	Tulane	5-1
33	Kansas	5-2
34	Kentucky	5-2
35	Rutgers	5-2
36	Florida	5-2
37	UCLA	4-2
38	UNLV	5-1
39	Ohio	5-2
40	Clemson	4-2
41	Jacksonville State	5-2
42	Kansas State	4-2
43	Iowa State	4-3
44	Maryland	5-2
45	Oklahoma State	4-2
46	Wisconsin	4-2
47	Texas State	5-2
48	Washington State	4-2
49	West Virginia	4-2
50	Western Kentucky	4-2
51	Memphis	4-2
52	Miami	4-2
53	TCU	4-3
54	NC State	4-3
55	Marshall	4-2
56	Colorado	4-3
57	Arizona	4-3
58	Texas A&M	4-3
59	Syracuse	4-3
60	Georgia Southern	4-2
61	SMU	4-2
62	BYU	4-2
63	Louisiana	4-2
64	Central Michigan	4-3
65	Minnesota	3-3
66	Coastal Carolina	3-3
67	Bowling Green	3-4
68	Illinois	3-4
69	Northwestern	3-3
70	Georgia Tech	3-3
71	California	3-4
72	Nebraska	3-3
73	Auburn	3-3
74	Utah State	3-4
75	Eastern Michigan	4-3
76	Florida Atlantic	3-3
77	Texas Tech	3-4
78	Boston College	3-3
79	San Diego State	3-4
80	South Alabama	3-3
81	UCF	3-3
82	Boise State	3-4
83	South Florida	3-4
84	Tulsa	3-3
85	Mississippi State	3-3
86	Colorado State	3-3
87	Virginia Tech	3-4
88	Northern Illinois	3-4
89	Appalachian State	3-3
89	Wake Forest	3-3
91	Navy	3-3
92	New Mexico State	4-3
93	Houston	3-3
94	UT San Antonio	3-3
95	Arkansas State	3-3
96	South Carolina	2-4
97	Old Dominion	3-3
98	Michigan State	2-4
99	Rice	3-3
100	North Texas	3-3
101	Purdue	2-5
102	Stanford	2-4
103	Cincinnati	2-4
104	Arkansas	2-5
105	Florida International	3-4
106	Vanderbilt	2-6
107	Baylor	2-4
108	San José State	2-5
109	Indiana	2-4
110	Middle Tennessee	2-5
111	Louisiana Tech	3-5
112	Pittsburgh	2-4
113	Louisiana Monroe	2-4
114	UAB	2-5
115	UTEP	2-5
116	Buffalo	2-5
117	Western Michigan	2-5
118	Hawai'i	2-5
119	Army	2-4
120	New Mexico	2-4
121	Virginia	1-5
122	Temple	2-5
123	Arizona State	1-5
124	Southern Mississippi	1-5
125	Connecticut	1-5
126	Charlotte	1-5
127	East Carolina	1-5
128	Kent State	1-6
129	Ball State	1-6
130	UMass	1-7
131	Nevada	0-6
132	Sam Houston State	0-6
133	Akron	1-6

2023 History and #1s
Week 1 Jacksonville State and San Diego State
Week 2 Notre Dame
Week 3 Notre Dame
Week 4 Penn State
Week 5 Texas
Week 6 Oklahoma

2023-10-13

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 6, Thursday

San Francisco over Kansas City

Kansas City beat Denver on Thursday night, and increased their lead as the AFC favorite.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	5-0	0.628	83.4	97.6	77.5	46.0	26.7	15.0
KC	5-1	0.613	85.6	95.8	74.8	43.5	24.6	13.4
BUF	3-2	0.613	47.6	80.7	53.4	30.5	17.1	9.3
PHI	5-0	0.562	67.0	93.5	60.5	30.9	15.2	7.5
DET	4-1	0.566	79.4	87.8	51.6	26.2	12.9	6.5
MIA	4-1	0.560	45.9	82.8	51.5	26.3	13.0	6.4
DAL	3-2	0.590	30.7	70.0	40.4	21.4	11.2	5.9
BAL	3-2	0.574	49.2	70.7	41.8	21.7	11.1	5.6
TB	3-1	0.536	43.8	70.0	37.0	17.3	8.0	3.8
NO	3-2	0.549	35.4	63.8	33.6	16.1	7.7	3.7
SEA	3-1	0.534	13.5	65.3	34.2	15.8	7.4	3.4
CLE	2-2	0.540	27.2	53.6	28.5	13.6	6.5	3.0
IND	3-2	0.509	39.5	64.2	33.2	14.8	6.5	2.9
HOU	2-3	0.530	21.4	43.6	22.3	10.3	4.8	2.2
JAX	3-2	0.506	28.4	51.1	25.2	11.1	4.9	2.1
LAC	2-2	0.510	11.4	37.8	18.6	8.3	3.7	1.6
GB	2-3	0.500	12.6	34.9	15.8	6.7	2.9	1.3
ATL	3-2	0.469	20.5	44.7	19.2	7.6	3.0	1.2
LAR	2-3	0.508	2.7	29.3	13.4	5.8	2.6	1.1
TEN	2-3	0.488	10.7	26.3	12.1	5.1	2.2	0.9
PIT	3-2	0.433	19.8	40.2	16.6	6.2	2.3	0.8
NYJ	2-3	0.474	6.1	24.6	10.8	4.4	1.8	0.7
MIN	1-4	0.478	5.4	13.3	5.6	2.3	0.9	0.4
LV	2-3	0.427	2.8	13.0	5.1	1.9	0.7	0.2
WSH	2-3	0.424	1.9	12.7	4.8	1.7	0.6	0.2
CIN	2-3	0.435	3.8	10.6	4.3	1.6	0.6	0.2
CHI	1-4	0.436	2.6	7.6	2.9	1.1	0.4	0.1
ARI	1-4	0.452	0.3	6.2	2.4	0.9	0.4	0.1
NE	1-4	0.374	0.5	3.7	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
NYG	1-4	0.372	0.3	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0
DEN	1-5	0.399	0.2	1.3	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0
CAR	0-5	0.413	0.3	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City

2023-10-10

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 5, Final

San Francisco over Kansas City

It's going to take me a long time to see the Raiders and instantly think "Las Vegas". Probably even longer than it takes not to see the Chargers and want to call them San Diego. Vegas beat Green Bay on Monday night, to bring both teams to 2-3 and nowhere near affecting the top of the standings, except very slightly lowering Kansas City's division-winning chances.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	5-0	0.628	83.4	97.6	77.4	46.0	26.7	15.3
KC	4-1	0.589	77.7	90.8	65.6	36.4	19.7	10.2
BUF	3-2	0.613	47.3	80.8	54.5	31.5	18.0	9.8
PHI	5-0	0.562	67.3	93.7	60.8	31.0	15.2	7.7
MIA	4-1	0.560	46.2	83.2	53.2	27.5	14.0	6.8
DET	4-1	0.566	79.2	87.7	51.4	26.1	12.9	6.6
DAL	3-2	0.590	30.5	70.1	40.4	21.4	11.2	6.0
BAL	3-2	0.574	49.3	70.9	42.8	22.6	11.8	5.9
TB	3-1	0.536	43.8	70.0	37.0	17.3	8.0	3.8
NO	3-2	0.549	35.4	63.9	33.6	16.1	7.7	3.8
SEA	3-1	0.534	13.5	65.4	34.2	15.8	7.4	3.5
CLE	2-2	0.540	26.9	53.3	28.9	14.1	6.8	3.2
IND	3-2	0.509	39.6	64.3	34.0	15.5	7.0	3.1
HOU	2-3	0.530	21.2	43.2	22.4	10.6	5.0	2.3
JAX	3-2	0.506	28.5	51.1	25.8	11.6	5.2	2.3
LAC	2-2	0.510	16.6	39.0	19.5	8.9	4.1	1.8
GB	2-3	0.500	12.8	35.0	15.9	6.8	2.9	1.3
ATL	3-2	0.469	20.5	44.7	19.2	7.6	3.0	1.2
LAR	2-3	0.508	2.7	29.3	13.4	5.8	2.6	1.2
TEN	2-3	0.488	10.7	26.3	12.3	5.3	2.3	1.0
PIT	3-2	0.433	19.8	40.2	17.0	6.5	2.4	0.9
NYJ	2-3	0.474	6.0	24.6	11.1	4.6	1.9	0.8
MIN	1-4	0.478	5.3	13.1	5.6	2.2	0.9	0.4
LV	2-3	0.427	4.6	14.0	5.6	2.1	0.8	0.3
CIN	2-3	0.435	3.9	10.9	4.4	1.7	0.6	0.2
WSH	2-3	0.424	1.9	12.7	4.8	1.7	0.6	0.2
CHI	1-4	0.436	2.6	7.6	2.9	1.1	0.4	0.2
ARI	1-4	0.451	0.3	6.2	2.4	0.9	0.4	0.1
DEN	1-4	0.421	1.2	3.8	1.5	0.6	0.2	0.1
NE	1-4	0.374	0.5	3.7	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
NYG	1-4	0.372	0.3	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0
CAR	0-5	0.413	0.3	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City

2023-10-09

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 5, Sunday

San Francisco over Kansas City

San Francisco beat Dallas, one of the stronger teams in the NFC, which solidified their position at the top both because they won by 32, and because they knocked down strong rival. In the AFC, Buffalo lost to Jacksonville while Kansas City eked out a win over Minnesota. Kansas City has a 1.5 game lead in their division, while Buffalo is now a game behind Miami, so Buffalo and Miami are both strong teams but canceling each other out a little, clearing the way for the new AFC favorite.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	5-0	0.628	83.4	97.4	77.2	45.8	26.6	15.2
KC	4-1	0.589	78.7	91.2	65.8	36.5	19.7	10.3
BUF	3-2	0.613	47.3	81.0	54.6	31.6	18.0	9.8
PHI	5-0	0.562	67.3	93.3	60.5	30.9	15.1	7.6
MIA	4-1	0.560	46.2	83.5	53.3	27.5	14.0	6.9
DET	4-1	0.566	74.1	86.1	50.5	25.6	12.7	6.4
BAL	3-2	0.574	49.4	71.2	42.9	22.7	11.8	6.0
DAL	3-2	0.590	30.5	69.1	39.8	21.1	11.0	5.9
TB	3-1	0.536	43.7	68.8	36.3	17.0	7.9	3.8
NO	3-2	0.549	35.5	62.6	33.0	15.8	7.6	3.7
SEA	3-1	0.534	13.5	64.3	33.7	15.6	7.3	3.5
CLE	2-2	0.540	27.0	53.7	29.1	14.2	6.8	3.2
IND	3-2	0.509	39.6	64.7	34.2	15.6	7.0	3.1
HOU	2-3	0.530	21.2	43.6	22.6	10.7	5.1	2.3
JAX	3-2	0.506	28.5	51.4	25.9	11.7	5.2	2.3
GB	2-2	0.507	19.1	46.7	21.8	9.5	4.2	1.9
LAC	2-2	0.510	16.9	39.4	19.7	9.0	4.1	1.8
ATL	3-2	0.469	20.5	43.5	18.7	7.4	3.0	1.2
LAR	2-3	0.508	2.7	28.1	12.9	5.6	2.5	1.1
TEN	2-3	0.488	10.7	26.6	12.5	5.4	2.3	1.0
PIT	3-2	0.433	19.7	40.4	17.1	6.5	2.4	0.9
NYJ	2-3	0.474	6.0	24.9	11.2	4.7	2.0	0.8
MIN	1-4	0.477	4.6	12.1	5.1	2.1	0.9	0.4
CIN	2-3	0.435	3.9	11.1	4.5	1.7	0.7	0.2
WSH	2-3	0.424	1.9	12.1	4.6	1.6	0.6	0.2
LV	1-3	0.427	3.0	9.5	3.8	1.4	0.5	0.2
CHI	1-4	0.436	2.2	6.9	2.7	1.0	0.4	0.1
ARI	1-4	0.451	0.3	5.8	2.3	0.9	0.3	0.1
DEN	1-4	0.421	1.3	4.0	1.5	0.6	0.2	0.1
NE	1-4	0.374	0.5	3.8	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
NYG	1-4	0.372	0.3	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0
CAR	0-5	0.413	0.3	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo