Superbowl LI Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Philadelphia over New England

The teams stayed the same but the projected result flipped as Philadelphia strengthened themselves even beyond New England. We've got 5 3-0 teams and 4 winless teams, with New Orleans still to play Monday. Jacksonville and Chicago face off in Week 6, so we'll get down to at most 2 winless teams by then. LA climbed out of the cellar with another win, and now Chicago is the weakest team in the league.

As usual, I tend to forget to note the first milestone I track each year, the first team to reach a 10% chance of winning. That happened Thursday with New England crossing that barrier.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	3-0	0.589	60.22	80.10	66.04	37.92	21.49	12.08
NE	3-0	0.566	71.21	82.21	67.12	37.33	20.48	10.84
MIN	3-0	0.557	65.87	80.70	65.31	35.08	18.33	9.71
DEN	3-0	0.549	46.69	73.24	56.31	30.05	15.83	8.11
KC	2-1	0.544	27.53	55.78	38.57	20.15	10.48	5.32
SEA	2-1	0.544	42.47	54.90	38.24	19.63	9.96	5.15
BAL	3-0	0.534	62.34	76.54	58.29	30.13	15.30	7.62
DAL	2-1	0.533	20.19	48.45	31.85	15.86	7.95	4.03
ARI	1-2	0.530	24.78	37.18	24.16	11.98	5.91	2.98
SD	1-2	0.524	9.48	26.74	16.43	8.16	4.07	1.98
GB	2-1	0.516	22.54	46.61	29.84	14.38	6.89	3.36
CAR	1-2	0.511	32.67	38.06	22.27	10.52	4.96	2.40
BUF	1-2	0.506	11.60	24.07	14.16	6.79	3.27	1.53
NYG	2-1	0.505	15.74	41.28	25.61	11.96	5.63	2.69
OAK	2-1	0.502	16.30	39.16	24.83	11.82	5.62	2.61
ATL	1-1	0.500	30.82	36.56	21.71	10.04	4.63	2.19
PIT	2-1	0.498	27.29	44.91	28.39	13.40	6.30	2.91
MIA	1-2	0.494	8.81	22.83	13.17	6.13	2.87	1.31
DET	1-2	0.493	9.26	22.21	12.93	5.92	2.71	1.26
NO	0-2	0.492	19.38	22.96	12.66	5.73	2.60	1.21
SF	1-2	0.482	12.79	20.79	11.63	5.17	2.30	1.05
IND	1-2	0.478	26.86	32.56	17.68	7.88	3.52	1.56
NYJ	1-2	0.469	8.39	16.26	8.95	3.97	1.77	0.77
HOU	2-1	0.469	41.75	47.28	26.33	11.51	5.03	2.18
CIN	1-2	0.462	7.75	15.10	8.12	3.53	1.54	0.66
WAS	1-2	0.460	3.85	13.63	7.23	3.06	1.31	0.57
TEN	1-2	0.460	22.06	26.40	13.61	5.82	2.51	1.06
LA	2-1	0.459	19.96	31.27	18.02	7.62	3.21	1.39
TB	1-2	0.453	17.14	20.25	10.07	4.17	1.73	0.74
JAC	0-3	0.446	9.34	10.99	5.13	2.11	0.88	0.36
CLE	0-3	0.446	2.62	5.91	2.93	1.22	0.51	0.21
CHI	0-3	0.432	2.33	5.06	2.44	0.97	0.38	0.16

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia