2016-09-26

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Philadelphia over New England

The teams stayed the same but the projected result flipped as Philadelphia strengthened themselves even beyond New England. We've got 5 3-0 teams and 4 winless teams, with New Orleans still to play Monday. Jacksonville and Chicago face off in Week 6, so we'll get down to at most 2 winless teams by then. LA climbed out of the cellar with another win, and now Chicago is the weakest team in the league.

As usual, I tend to forget to note the first milestone I track each year, the first team to reach a 10% chance of winning. That happened Thursday with New England crossing that barrier.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI3-00.58960.2280.1066.0437.9221.4912.08
NE3-00.56671.2182.2167.1237.3320.4810.84
MIN3-00.55765.8780.7065.3135.0818.339.71
DEN3-00.54946.6973.2456.3130.0515.838.11
KC2-10.54427.5355.7838.5720.1510.485.32
SEA2-10.54442.4754.9038.2419.639.965.15
BAL3-00.53462.3476.5458.2930.1315.307.62
DAL2-10.53320.1948.4531.8515.867.954.03
ARI1-20.53024.7837.1824.1611.985.912.98
SD1-20.5249.4826.7416.438.164.071.98
GB2-10.51622.5446.6129.8414.386.893.36
CAR1-20.51132.6738.0622.2710.524.962.40
BUF1-20.50611.6024.0714.166.793.271.53
NYG2-10.50515.7441.2825.6111.965.632.69
OAK2-10.50216.3039.1624.8311.825.622.61
ATL1-10.50030.8236.5621.7110.044.632.19
PIT2-10.49827.2944.9128.3913.406.302.91
MIA1-20.4948.8122.8313.176.132.871.31
DET1-20.4939.2622.2112.935.922.711.26
NO0-20.49219.3822.9612.665.732.601.21
SF1-20.48212.7920.7911.635.172.301.05
IND1-20.47826.8632.5617.687.883.521.56
NYJ1-20.4698.3916.268.953.971.770.77
HOU2-10.46941.7547.2826.3311.515.032.18
CIN1-20.4627.7515.108.123.531.540.66
WAS1-20.4603.8513.637.233.061.310.57
TEN1-20.46022.0626.4013.615.822.511.06
LA2-10.45919.9631.2718.027.623.211.39
TB1-20.45317.1420.2510.074.171.730.74
JAC0-30.4469.3410.995.132.110.880.36
CLE0-30.4462.625.912.931.220.510.21
CHI0-30.4322.335.062.440.970.380.16

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia

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