New England clinched their division and a first round bye all at once. Oakland also clinched at least a playoff spot. Cincinnati, Arizona, and Philadelphia were all eliminated from the playoffs. I'm also showing Carolina as eliminated, but that's because by default I don't simulate ties. I worked out that they need to beat Washington Monday night, and have Washington and Chicago to tie next week to have any chance of making the playoffs. That's because Washington needs to be 7-7-2 to effectively be tied with Carolina at 8-8, and they would of course have the head to head tiebreaker based on the Monday night win. Since games end in ties less than 1% of the time, I'm pretty comfortable saying Carolina won't be in the playoffs. But, with a win tonight, they remain mathematically alive for another week.
Cleveland is now 0-14, and I've got them with a 72% chance of losing both remaining games. I'm excited about it, how about you?
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 12-2 | 0.756 | ++ | ++ | ++ | 70.55 | 48.17 | 29.70 |
| DAL | 12-2 | 0.710 | 97.17 | ++ | 98.96 | 65.22 | 38.32 | 20.66 |
| ATL | 9-5 | 0.667 | 81.67 | 93.99 | 67.30 | 35.38 | 18.35 | 9.02 |
| SEA | 9-4-1 | 0.649 | ++ | ++ | 89.44 | 48.61 | 23.63 | 11.16 |
| PIT | 9-5 | 0.634 | 69.88 | 87.02 | 53.57 | 27.41 | 12.17 | 5.79 |
| KC | 10-4 | 0.598 | 34.57 | 97.21 | 68.45 | 31.05 | 12.81 | 5.62 |
| BAL | 8-6 | 0.597 | 30.12 | 46.00 | 23.30 | 10.27 | 4.35 | 1.91 |
| DEN | 8-6 | 0.595 | - | 16.67 | 8.00 | 2.59 | 1.33 | 0.58 |
| BUF | 7-7 | 0.585 | - | 1.09 | 0.49 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| OAK | 11-3 | 0.574 | 65.43 | ++ | 84.66 | 39.22 | 14.53 | 6.04 |
| NYG | 10-4 | 0.555 | 2.83 | 97.94 | 49.06 | 18.04 | 7.28 | 2.77 |
| GB | 8-6 | 0.545 | 43.26 | 50.53 | 24.22 | 8.64 | 3.35 | 1.24 |
| IND | 7-7 | 0.543 | 3.56 | 4.24 | 1.94 | 0.66 | 0.26 | 0.10 |
| PHI | 5-9 | 0.536 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DET | 9-5 | 0.536 | 56.74 | 70.09 | 36.11 | 13.15 | 4.94 | 1.79 |
| TEN | 8-6 | 0.533 | 52.82 | 53.69 | 24.30 | 8.54 | 3.15 | 1.18 |
| ARI | 5-8-1 | 0.529 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| WAS | 7-5-1 | 0.524 | - | 49.52 | 20.47 | 6.53 | 2.60 | 0.92 |
| NO | 6-8 | 0.523 | - | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| MIN | 7-7 | 0.512 | - | 2.05 | 0.82 | 0.25 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| MIA | 9-5 | 0.502 | - | 49.16 | 20.80 | 6.03 | 2.27 | 0.79 |
| SD | 5-9 | 0.500 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CIN | 5-8-1 | 0.489 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TB | 8-6 | 0.482 | 18.33 | 35.83 | 13.59 | 4.17 | 1.43 | 0.45 |
| CAR | 5-8 | 0.452 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HOU | 8-6 | 0.396 | 43.62 | 44.91 | 14.49 | 3.52 | 0.88 | 0.23 |
| CHI | 3-11 | 0.341 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| JAC | 2-12 | 0.304 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NYJ | 4-10 | 0.270 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SF | 1-13 | 0.224 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LA | 4-10 | 0.219 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CLE | 0-14 | 0.182 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: New England (Week 15, Sunday)
First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)
[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Saturday] New England over Dallas
Hello -- I am still an avid reader of all these NFL projections, and I like the stocastic approach that you are working with here. At this point in the season, I am wondering why you are still sorting your table by strength. I think a more-helpful sort would be to sort by the probability of making the playoffs (or of making the Super Bowl). It seems odd to have Houston/Tampa/Miami so low in the chart when their playoff chances are significantly better than Buffalo/Indianapolis/New Orleans. This would remove the "gaps" where eliminated teams are higher in the chart than non-eliminated teams.
ReplyDeleteThanks for making these, and keep up the good work!
-Josh D. :-)