2023-11-17

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Baltimore over San Francisco

We finally had an important game on a Thursday or Monday; it seems like those days almost never have any meaningful movement. Baltimore beat Cincinnati to start Week 11. While Cincinnati was only 5-4, a division win is always extra helpful for tiebreaker purposes.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL8-30.71566.398.176.450.632.219.7
SF6-30.68181.997.069.342.825.614.2
KC7-20.63393.397.776.643.421.911.4
DAL6-30.66420.194.762.236.220.711.1
PHI8-10.59679.999.979.240.919.79.1
CLE6-30.58723.987.250.323.911.05.2
DET7-20.56670.496.254.325.011.34.9
MIA6-30.58966.481.145.621.710.14.8
BUF5-50.64128.241.623.512.46.53.4
MIN6-40.54728.987.442.418.58.03.3
HOU5-40.54738.263.231.613.35.62.4
JAX6-30.51249.673.534.613.55.22.1
NO5-50.53453.062.127.011.44.92.0
SEA6-30.49817.677.933.112.95.01.9
TB4-50.51130.741.717.26.92.81.1
PIT6-30.4419.658.522.47.22.30.8
LAC4-50.5414.022.210.14.21.80.8
IND5-50.48910.334.314.05.01.90.7
GB3-60.4940.613.45.32.00.80.3
ATL4-60.44116.219.36.52.20.70.2
CIN5-50.4520.212.64.51.50.50.2
NYJ4-50.4325.39.03.21.00.30.1
LV5-50.4252.110.03.41.10.30.1
LAR3-60.4470.55.92.10.70.20.1
DEN4-50.4120.56.92.20.70.20.1
TEN3-60.4401.94.01.40.50.10.0
WSH4-60.4020.02.90.90.30.10.0
CHI3-70.4060.11.60.50.10.00.0
CAR1-80.3440.10.10.00.00.00.0
ARI2-80.3430.00.10.00.00.00.0
NE2-80.3090.00.00.00.00.00.0
NYG2-80.2550.00.00.00.00.00.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco

2023-11-14

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 10, Final

Baltimore over San Francisco

Buffalo keeps sliding, and lost at home to Denver on Monday. Overall, the projection stays the same. And, while no one is eliminated from the playoffs yet, I now show the 4 8-loss teams (Carolina, Arizona, New England, and the New York Giants) with no chance at their conference #1 seed.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL7-30.69554.894.569.844.627.516.2
SF6-30.68182.197.169.542.925.714.6
KC7-20.63393.197.677.644.123.112.0
DAL6-30.66420.194.762.236.220.711.4
PHI8-10.59679.999.979.240.919.69.4
CLE6-30.58730.986.351.124.911.85.6
MIA6-30.58966.881.346.122.510.75.1
DET7-20.56670.796.154.224.911.35.1
BUF5-50.64128.041.023.412.66.73.6
MIN6-40.54728.687.042.118.48.03.4
HOU5-40.54738.462.931.913.96.02.6
JAX6-30.51249.572.834.713.95.52.2
NO5-50.53453.062.227.111.44.92.0
SEA6-30.49817.377.833.112.95.01.9
TB4-50.51130.741.717.26.92.81.1
LAC4-50.5414.222.510.44.52.00.8
PIT6-30.44112.156.522.17.42.50.8
IND5-50.48910.133.113.75.11.90.7
CIN5-40.4792.321.78.83.21.20.4
GB3-60.4940.613.45.32.00.80.3
ATL4-60.44116.219.36.52.20.80.2
LV5-50.4252.210.03.51.10.40.1
NYJ4-50.4325.38.93.21.10.40.1
LAR3-60.4470.56.02.10.70.30.1
DEN4-50.4120.56.82.30.70.20.1
TEN3-60.4402.04.01.40.50.20.1
WSH4-60.4030.03.00.90.30.10.0
CHI3-70.4060.11.60.50.10.00.0
CAR1-80.3440.10.10.00.00.00.0
ARI2-80.3430.00.10.00.00.00.0
NE2-80.3090.00.00.00.00.00.0
NYG2-80.2550.00.00.00.00.00.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco

2023-11-13

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 10, Sunday

Baltimore over San Francisco

San Francisco had a big win over Jacksonville, 34-3, which raised their strength up quite a bit and put them back on top of the NFC.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL7-30.69554.894.069.043.826.915.8
SF6-30.68182.197.169.542.925.714.6
KC7-20.63393.397.576.743.222.511.7
DAL6-30.66420.194.762.236.220.711.3
PHI8-10.59679.999.979.240.919.69.3
CLE6-30.58730.985.550.324.311.45.4
BUF5-40.64240.059.534.918.910.15.3
DET7-20.56670.796.254.224.911.35.0
MIA6-30.58955.979.044.121.410.14.8
MIN6-40.54728.687.042.118.48.03.4
HOU5-40.54738.461.630.913.45.72.5
JAX6-30.51249.571.633.713.45.32.1
NO5-50.53453.062.127.111.44.92.0
SEA6-30.49817.377.833.112.95.01.9
TB4-50.51130.841.717.26.92.81.1
PIT6-30.44112.154.721.27.02.30.8
LAC4-50.5414.321.19.74.21.80.8
IND5-50.48910.131.512.94.81.80.7
CIN5-40.4792.320.58.33.01.10.4
GB3-60.4940.613.45.32.00.80.3
ATL4-60.44116.219.36.52.20.80.2
LV5-50.4252.29.33.21.00.30.1
NYJ4-50.4324.07.82.80.90.30.1
LAR3-60.4470.56.02.10.70.30.1
TEN3-60.4402.03.71.30.40.10.0
WSH4-60.4030.02.90.90.30.10.0
DEN3-50.4100.22.70.90.30.10.0
CHI3-70.4060.11.60.50.10.00.0
CAR1-80.3440.10.10.00.00.00.0
ARI2-80.3430.00.10.00.00.00.0
NE2-80.3090.00.00.00.00.00.0
NYG2-80.2550.00.00.00.00.00.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia

2023-11-12

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 11

The Errors:
None, because I'm still catching up.

The Top:
Ohio State wins again to stay #1. We had a little shuffling around despite the top teams winning, with James Madison dropping down to #6 and out of the problematic top 4, if the CFP committee were to pay any attention to me that is.

The Home Team:
Missouri won against Tennessee, but only gained 2 spots. In the official rankings, Tennessee was one ahead of Missouri before the weekend, #13 and #14, but in mine it was a #15 over #25.

The Bottom:
Kent State lost again and holds strong at #133.

Winless and Lossless:
There are still 7 undefeated teams, all 10-0, and no winless teams.


1Ohio State10-0
2Georgia10-0
3Washington10-0
4Florida State10-0
5Michigan10-0
6James Madison10-0
7Alabama9-1
8Liberty10-0
9Texas9-1
10Oregon9-1
11Louisville9-1
12Ole Miss8-2
13Missouri8-2
14Penn State8-2
15Tulane9-1
16Oklahoma8-2
17Toledo9-1
18Iowa8-2
19Troy8-2
20Oregon State8-2
21North Carolina8-2
22Memphis8-2
23UNLV8-2
24LSU7-3
25Fresno State8-2
26Notre Dame7-3
27Utah7-3
28Oklahoma State7-3
29Kansas State7-3
30Kansas7-3
31Air Force8-2
32Coastal Carolina7-3
33Miami (OH)8-2
34Tennessee7-3
35USC7-4
36Arizona7-3
37NC State7-3
38SMU8-2
39Duke6-4
40New Mexico State8-3
41Jacksonville State7-3
42Iowa State6-4
43Clemson6-4
44Wyoming6-4
45Ohio7-3
46Miami6-4
47UT San Antonio7-3
48West Virginia6-4
49UCLA6-4
50Georgia State6-4
51Texas A&M6-4
52Auburn6-4
53Rutgers6-4
54Kentucky6-4
55Boston College6-4
56Appalachian State6-4
57Bowling Green6-4
58Maryland6-4
59Texas State6-4
60Georgia Southern6-4
61Marshall5-5
62Texas Tech5-5
63Georgia Tech5-5
64Northwestern5-5
65San José State5-5
66Boise State5-5
67UCF5-5
68Western Kentucky5-5
69Minnesota5-5
70Illinois5-5
71Virginia Tech5-5
72Wisconsin5-5
73Syracuse5-5
74South Alabama5-5
75BYU5-5
76Florida5-5
77Utah State5-5
78Arkansas State5-5
79Nebraska5-5
80South Carolina4-6
81South Florida5-5
82California4-6
83TCU4-6
84Louisiana5-5
85Colorado4-6
86Central Michigan5-5
87Mississippi State4-6
88Old Dominion4-6
89Wake Forest4-6
90Army4-6
91Western Michigan4-6
92Washington State4-6
93Houston4-6
94Michigan State3-7
95Navy4-5
96Colorado State4-6
97Hawai'i4-7
98Rice4-6
99Stanford3-7
100Purdue3-7
101Northern Illinois4-6
102Arizona State3-7
103Eastern Michigan4-6
104Florida Atlantic4-6
105Arkansas3-7
106Indiana3-7
107Baylor3-7
108UMass3-7
109Middle Tennessee3-7
110Southern Mississippi3-7
111UAB3-7
112Florida International4-6
113Cincinnati3-7
114UTEP3-7
115Virginia2-8
116Ball State3-7
117San Diego State3-7
118Buffalo3-7
119North Texas3-7
120New Mexico3-7
121Tulsa3-7
122Charlotte3-7
123Temple3-7
124East Carolina2-8
125Vanderbilt2-9
126Pittsburgh2-8
127Nevada2-8
128Louisiana Tech3-8
129Louisiana Monroe2-8
130Sam Houston State2-8
131Connecticut1-9
132Akron2-8
133Kent State1-9


2023 History and #1s
Week 1 Jacksonville State and San Diego State
Week 2 Notre Dame
Week 3 Notre Dame
Week 4 Penn State
Week 5 Texas
Week 6 Oklahoma
Week 7 Michigan
Week 8 Michigan
Week 9 Ohio State
Week 10 Ohio State

2023-11-10

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 10, Thursday

Baltimore over Philadelphia

Chicago beat Carolina Thursday, which had basically no effect on the NFC as a whole. The only semi-interesting thing is that my simulations showed Arizona never winning the #1 seed in even a single simulation for the last few game days, but now they do, and Carolina doesn't. I'm not convinced it's mathematically impossible, but I think they'd have to flip some tiebreakers in addition to winning the rest of their games.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL7-20.69877.997.176.548.629.718.5
KC7-20.63390.897.573.340.720.711.4
PHI8-10.59685.999.984.245.823.711.1
SF5-30.63575.292.260.735.219.910.1
DAL5-30.62414.089.054.730.416.88.4
DET6-20.56571.693.353.926.412.75.6
BUF5-40.64238.559.934.818.49.65.4
MIA6-30.58954.078.843.420.59.64.8
JAX6-20.57171.486.349.022.39.94.8
CLE5-30.58713.871.437.917.78.34.2
NO5-40.55166.477.739.118.28.53.6
MIN5-40.53125.274.235.615.97.12.9
SEA5-30.49223.468.030.312.45.11.9
HOU4-40.54320.645.521.38.93.71.7
LAC4-40.5497.832.715.26.52.81.3
GB3-50.5023.027.411.94.92.10.8
CIN5-30.4853.032.012.94.71.70.7
TB3-50.48112.725.710.64.21.70.6
ATL4-50.44421.031.911.94.31.60.5
PIT5-30.4325.441.114.44.51.40.5
IND4-50.4844.624.59.53.41.20.5
NYJ4-40.4437.416.46.01.90.60.2
TEN3-50.4733.48.03.11.10.40.1
WSH4-50.4070.011.03.81.20.40.1
LAR3-60.4481.47.12.71.00.40.1
LV4-50.4201.25.71.90.60.20.1
DEN3-50.4100.22.80.90.30.10.0
CHI3-70.4070.32.20.80.20.10.0
NE2-70.3280.00.20.00.00.00.0
NYG2-70.2860.00.20.00.00.00.0
CAR1-80.3440.00.10.00.00.00.0
ARI1-80.3430.00.10.00.00.00.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia

2023-11-07

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 9, Final

Baltimore over Philadelphia

Monday's win by the LA Chargers over the New York Jets didn't move the needle for Baltimore at all, and the projection stands.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL7-20.69877.997.176.548.629.818.5
KC7-20.63390.897.573.340.720.711.4
PHI8-10.59686.099.984.245.823.711.1
SF5-30.63575.292.360.735.219.910.2
DAL5-30.62414.089.054.630.316.88.4
DET6-20.56571.793.554.026.412.75.6
BUF5-40.64238.659.934.918.49.75.4
MIA6-30.58954.078.943.420.69.64.8
JAX6-20.57271.286.148.922.29.84.8
CLE5-30.58713.871.537.917.88.34.2
NO5-40.55166.477.639.018.28.53.6
MIN5-40.53125.274.535.815.97.12.9
SEA5-30.49223.468.430.412.45.11.9
HOU4-40.54320.745.521.38.93.71.7
LAC4-40.5497.832.715.26.52.81.3
GB3-50.5023.027.311.94.92.10.8
CIN5-30.4853.032.012.94.61.70.7
TB3-50.48112.525.410.44.11.70.6
ATL4-50.44420.931.911.94.31.60.5
PIT5-30.4315.441.114.44.51.40.5
IND4-50.4844.724.69.53.41.20.5
NYJ4-40.4437.416.46.01.90.60.2
TEN3-50.4733.48.03.11.10.40.1
WSH4-50.4070.011.13.81.20.40.1
LAR3-60.4471.47.22.71.00.40.1
LV4-50.4201.25.71.90.60.20.1
DEN3-50.4100.22.80.90.30.10.0
CHI2-70.4060.21.40.50.20.10.0
CAR1-70.3570.20.30.10.00.00.0
NE2-70.3280.00.20.00.00.00.0
NYG2-70.2860.00.20.00.00.00.0
ARI1-80.3430.00.10.00.00.00.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia

2023-11-06

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 9, Sunday

Baltimore over Philadelphia

Dallas loses to Philadelphia, which is a huge swing for the NFC East division title, and that puts Philadelphia on top of the NFC overall for the first time this year. Philadelphia's 99.9% playoff chances are rounded up here, so I'm not marking them officially as the first team to 99.9%. It's more like 99.893%. Yes, I'd be that professor who won't round your grade.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL7-20.69878.697.476.949.030.118.7
KC7-20.63394.598.174.241.421.111.6
PHI8-10.59686.099.984.245.723.611.1
SF5-30.63575.292.360.735.219.910.2
DAL5-30.62414.089.054.630.316.88.4
DET6-20.56572.193.754.326.512.85.6
BUF5-40.64235.458.834.318.19.55.3
JAX6-20.57271.786.349.022.49.94.8
MIA6-30.58948.375.641.519.69.14.6
CLE5-30.58713.170.837.617.68.24.2
NO5-40.55166.877.839.018.28.53.6
MIN5-40.53124.874.535.815.97.12.9
SEA5-30.49223.468.430.412.45.11.9
HOU4-40.54320.244.721.08.83.71.7
NYJ4-30.49316.435.614.95.62.10.9
GB3-50.5023.028.112.25.02.10.8
CIN5-30.4853.032.313.14.71.70.7
TB3-50.48112.625.510.54.11.70.6
PIT5-30.4315.341.314.54.61.50.5
IND4-50.4844.724.79.63.41.30.5
ATL4-50.44420.431.011.54.21.50.5
LAC3-40.5113.917.27.22.81.10.5
TEN3-50.4733.48.03.11.10.40.1
LAR3-60.4471.47.22.71.00.40.1
WSH4-50.4070.010.63.61.20.40.1
LV4-50.4201.45.91.90.60.20.1
DEN3-50.4100.33.11.00.30.10.0
CHI2-70.4060.21.40.50.20.10.0
CAR1-70.3570.20.30.10.00.00.0
NE2-70.3280.00.20.00.00.00.0
NYG2-70.2850.00.20.00.00.00.0
ARI1-80.3430.00.10.00.00.00.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas

2023-11-05

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 10

The Errors:
None, because to be honest I pulled this data very shortly after the week 9 post was made very late.

The Top:
Ohio State wins and holds their #1 spot, but the top 6 are all 9-0. James Madison rises all the way to #2, even though they are ineligible for the Playoff, and all or most bowls depending on where I read the details.

The Home Team:
Missouri lost, but only lost 1 position and fell to #15, because it was a high-quality loss, to the other #2 team, Georgia.

The Bottom:
Sam Houston State got out of the gutter with a win, and Kent State is now the worst team out there.

Winless and Lossless:
There are now 7 undefeated teams, down from 8, thanks to Air Force's loss to Army. Sam Houston State was the only winless team, so there are none remaining.


1Ohio State9-0
T-2James Madison9-0
T-2Georgia9-0
4Washington9-0
5Florida State9-0
6Michigan9-0
7Texas8-1
8Liberty9-0
9Ole Miss8-1
10Alabama8-1
11Penn State8-1
12Louisville8-1
13Oregon8-1
14Tulane8-1
15Missouri7-2
16Fresno State8-1
17Oklahoma7-2
18Notre Dame7-3
19Toledo8-1
20Oklahoma State7-2
21Troy7-2
22Kansas7-2
23Utah7-2
24Air Force8-1
25Tennessee7-2
26Oregon State7-2
27Iowa7-2
28USC7-3
29Memphis7-2
30North Carolina7-2
31Duke6-3
32Kansas State6-3
33LSU6-3
34UNLV7-2
35UCLA6-3
36Miami (OH)7-2
37Coastal Carolina6-3
38Arizona6-3
39Jacksonville State7-3
40Wyoming6-3
41SMU7-2
42Georgia State6-3
43NC State6-3
44West Virginia6-3
45Miami6-3
46Boston College6-3
47Rutgers6-3
48Kentucky6-3
49Georgia Southern6-3
50Texas State6-3
51New Mexico State7-3
52Clemson5-4
53Georgia Tech5-4
54Iowa State5-4
55Ohio6-3
56UT San Antonio6-3
57Minnesota5-4
58Texas A&M5-4
59Auburn5-4
T-60Bowling Green5-4
T-60Wisconsin5-4
62Western Kentucky5-4
63Maryland5-4
64Florida5-4
65BYU5-4
66Arkansas State5-4
67Nebraska5-4
68Appalachian State5-4
69Louisiana5-4
70Illinois4-5
71Texas Tech4-5
72Northwestern4-5
73Boise State4-5
74Central Michigan5-4
75Marshall4-5
76TCU4-5
77Colorado4-5
78San José State4-5
79South Alabama4-5
80UCF4-5
81Mississippi State4-5
82Utah State4-5
83Syracuse4-5
84Wake Forest4-5
85Virginia Tech4-5
86Houston4-5
87Washington State4-5
88South Florida4-5
89South Carolina3-6
90Northern Illinois4-5
91Old Dominion4-5
92California3-6
93Michigan State3-6
94Florida Atlantic4-5
95Rice4-5
96Stanford3-6
97Indiana3-6
98Arkansas3-6
99Eastern Michigan4-5
100UAB3-6
101Florida International4-5
102Baylor3-6
103Navy3-5
104San Diego State3-6
105Buffalo3-6
106Army3-6
107Western Michigan3-6
108Colorado State3-6
109UMass3-7
110Virginia2-7
111North Texas3-6
112UTEP3-7
113Tulsa3-6
114New Mexico3-6
115Purdue2-7
116Arizona State2-7
117Charlotte3-6
118Hawai'i3-7
119Temple3-6
120Louisiana Tech3-7
121Nevada2-7
122Vanderbilt2-8
123Middle Tennessee2-7
124Pittsburgh2-7
125Southern Mississippi2-7
126Cincinnati2-7
127Ball State2-7
128Louisiana Monroe2-7
129Akron2-7
130Connecticut1-8
131East Carolina1-8
132Sam Houston State1-8
133Kent State1-8


2023 History and #1s
Week 1 Jacksonville State and San Diego State
Week 2 Notre Dame
Week 3 Notre Dame
Week 4 Penn State
Week 5 Texas
Week 6 Oklahoma
Week 7 Michigan
Week 8 Michigan
Week 9 Ohio State

2023-11-03

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 9, Thursday

Baltimore over Dallas

Pittsburgh beat Tennessee on Thursday, which had little effect on the AFC as a whole, and the projection remains the same.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL6-20.65072.893.267.339.422.412.7
DAL5-20.62937.892.562.835.619.910.5
KC6-20.61791.396.168.237.219.410.4
SF5-30.63559.189.858.933.919.210.3
PHI7-10.58762.299.172.637.919.29.3
BUF5-30.64639.577.649.027.615.58.7
MIA6-20.59349.286.753.627.213.56.9
DET6-20.56576.993.355.027.012.96.0
JAX6-20.57277.489.252.925.411.95.8
SEA5-20.55838.283.146.222.210.54.8
NO4-40.53648.462.529.713.46.02.6
MIN4-40.52721.060.928.612.65.62.4
CLE4-30.53112.153.425.310.94.72.1
HOU3-40.54316.339.919.08.43.71.7
NYJ4-30.49311.239.717.06.72.61.1
TB3-40.48320.934.914.35.72.30.9
ATL4-40.44730.142.816.05.82.10.7
LAC3-40.5117.022.19.64.01.60.7
PIT5-30.43111.245.816.75.61.90.7
CIN4-30.4713.922.08.83.31.20.5
LAR3-50.4832.817.77.22.91.20.4
IND3-50.4622.818.06.82.40.90.3
GB2-50.4671.612.44.91.90.70.3
TEN3-50.4733.58.23.31.20.50.2
WSH3-50.4060.15.82.00.60.20.1
DEN3-50.4100.64.11.30.40.10.0
CHI2-60.4190.53.41.20.40.10.0
LV3-50.3771.13.31.00.30.10.0
CAR1-60.3800.61.00.30.10.00.0
NE2-60.3390.00.80.20.10.00.0
NYG2-60.3210.00.90.20.10.00.0
ARI1-70.3900.00.20.10.00.00.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas

2023-10-31

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 8, Final

Baltimore over Dallas

Detroit defeated Las Vegas, which I though might have given Kansas City enough of a boost in their division chances push them back atop the AFC, but it wasn't quite enough.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL6-20.65075.793.667.739.622.412.7
DAL5-20.62937.892.662.835.619.910.5
KC6-20.61791.396.268.337.119.410.3
SF5-30.63559.189.858.933.919.210.3
PHI7-10.58762.199.172.637.919.29.3
BUF5-30.64639.678.249.327.815.58.7
MIA6-20.59349.187.053.727.313.56.9
DET6-20.56576.993.355.027.012.96.0
JAX6-20.57275.288.752.425.111.75.7
SEA5-20.55838.183.046.222.210.54.8
NO4-40.53648.562.529.713.46.02.6
MIN4-40.52721.060.928.612.65.62.4
CLE4-30.53113.054.625.811.14.82.1
HOU3-40.54315.639.918.98.33.71.7
NYJ4-30.49311.340.417.26.82.71.1
TB3-40.48320.834.814.35.72.30.9
ATL4-40.44730.142.816.05.82.10.7
LAC3-40.5117.022.69.84.01.70.7
CIN4-30.4714.222.69.03.31.30.5
LAR3-50.4832.817.77.22.91.20.4
TEN3-40.4826.418.17.32.81.10.4
PIT4-30.4247.131.210.93.61.20.4
IND3-50.4622.718.46.92.50.90.3
GB2-50.4671.612.44.91.90.70.3
WSH3-50.4060.15.82.00.60.20.1
DEN3-50.4100.64.31.40.40.10.0
CHI2-60.4190.53.41.20.40.10.0
LV3-50.3761.13.41.00.30.10.0
CAR1-60.3800.61.00.30.10.00.0
NE2-60.3390.00.80.20.10.00.0
NYG2-60.3210.00.90.20.10.00.0
ARI1-70.3900.00.30.10.00.00.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas

2023-10-30

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Baltimore over Dallas

We don't usually lose both conference favorites in one day this late in the season. Both lost on Sunday. Baltimore and Dallas were both conference favorites earlier in the season, but not since week 2. And sort of out of nowhere, Philadelphia is the first team to a 99% chance of making the playoffs.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL6-20.65075.793.567.839.622.512.8
DAL5-20.62938.092.963.936.520.510.8
SF5-30.63559.190.059.834.819.710.5
KC6-20.61890.095.667.736.819.210.3
PHI7-10.58761.999.173.538.619.79.5
BUF5-30.64640.078.249.427.915.68.8
MIA6-20.59348.886.653.527.213.46.9
JAX6-20.57275.288.652.625.211.85.7
SEA5-20.55838.183.447.222.810.84.9
DET5-20.54368.988.047.922.310.24.5
NO4-40.53648.863.330.513.86.32.7
MIN4-40.52727.862.529.713.25.92.5
CLE4-30.53113.054.425.811.14.82.1
HOU3-40.54315.739.718.98.33.71.7
NYJ4-30.49311.239.716.96.72.61.1
TB3-40.48320.734.814.45.82.30.9
ATL4-40.44729.942.916.25.92.20.8
LAC3-40.5117.122.49.84.01.70.7
CIN4-30.4714.222.48.93.31.30.5
LAR3-50.4832.818.17.53.01.20.5
TEN3-40.4826.518.07.32.81.10.4
PIT4-30.4247.131.110.93.61.20.4
IND3-50.4622.717.96.72.40.90.3
GB2-50.4672.413.15.32.00.80.3
WSH3-50.4060.05.92.10.70.20.1
LV3-40.3992.36.82.20.70.20.1
CHI2-60.4190.93.81.30.50.20.1
DEN3-50.4100.64.21.40.40.10.0
CAR1-60.3800.61.00.30.10.00.0
NE2-60.3390.00.80.20.10.00.0
NYG2-60.3210.00.90.20.10.00.0
ARI1-70.3900.00.30.10.00.00.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City

2023-10-29

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 9

The Errors:
None! Sort of. 3 games have corrected scores, but with the same results, and I don't use points in these rankings, so Week 8 is still solid. Two of the games were all the way back in Week 6, and one was Week 8.

The Top:
Michigan took the week off and lost their top spot to their top rival and last week's #2, Ohio State. We've got some smaller schools sneaking up the rankings, too, with James Madison at #3 and Liberty at #7.

The Home Team:
Missouri was also off, and fell to #14 for it.

The Bottom:
Former #133 Akron was also off, and Sam Houston State managed to grab that slot from them with a loss.

Winless and Lossless:
There are now 8 undefeated teams, down from 9, with Oklahoma losing to Kansas. As mentioned above, Sam Houston State lost again, so they remain the only winless team.


1Ohio State8-0
2Florida State8-0
3James Madison8-0
4Michigan8-0
5Washington8-0
6Georgia8-0
7Liberty8-0
8Texas7-1
9Ole Miss7-1
10Air Force8-0
11Notre Dame7-2
12Alabama7-1
13Penn State7-1
14Missouri7-1
15Oklahoma7-1
16Oregon7-1
17Louisville7-1
18USC7-2
19Tulane7-1
20Utah6-2
21Toledo7-1
22Fresno State7-1
23UCLA6-2
24Jacksonville State7-2
25Tennessee6-2
26Kansas State6-2
27Miami (OH)7-2
28Oregon State6-2
29Kansas6-2
30LSU6-2
31Oklahoma State6-2
32Troy6-2
33Iowa6-2
34Georgia State6-2
35Miami6-2
36North Carolina6-2
37Memphis6-2
38Georgia Southern6-2
39Rutgers6-2
40UNLV6-2
41Duke5-3
42Coastal Carolina5-3
43Minnesota5-3
44Ohio6-3
45Iowa State5-3
46Wyoming5-3
47Wisconsin5-3
48SMU6-2
49Arizona5-3
50NC State5-3
51Nebraska5-3
52West Virginia5-3
53Kentucky5-3
54Boston College5-3
55Texas A&M5-3
56Florida5-3
57Louisiana5-3
58Texas State5-3
59BYU5-3
60New Mexico State6-3
61Maryland5-3
62Georgia Tech4-4
63Northwestern4-4
64Auburn4-4
65UT San Antonio5-3
66Clemson4-4
67Bowling Green4-4
68Marshall4-4
69Western Kentucky4-4
70TCU4-4
71Colorado4-4
72Boise State4-4
73Washington State4-4
74Northern Illinois4-4
75Virginia Tech4-4
76San José State4-5
77Wake Forest4-4
78South Florida4-4
79South Alabama4-4
80Mississippi State4-4
81Syracuse4-4
82Old Dominion4-4
83Florida Atlantic4-4
84Arkansas State4-4
85Appalachian State4-4
86California3-5
87Rice4-4
88Illinois3-5
89Central Michigan4-4
90Texas Tech3-5
91UCF3-5
92Utah State3-5
93Navy3-4
94Eastern Michigan4-5
95San Diego State3-5
96Florida International4-5
97Houston3-5
98Baylor3-5
99Tulsa3-5
100Colorado State3-5
101South Carolina2-6
102Western Michigan3-6
103Buffalo3-5
104UTEP3-6
105Virginia2-6
106Michigan State2-6
107North Texas3-5
108Stanford2-6
109Purdue2-6
110Arizona State2-6
111New Mexico3-5
112Nevada2-6
113Arkansas2-6
114UAB2-6
115Indiana2-6
116Vanderbilt2-7
117Cincinnati2-6
118Middle Tennessee2-6
119Louisiana Tech3-6
120Pittsburgh2-6
121Ball State2-6
122UMass2-7
123Louisiana Monroe2-6
124Charlotte2-6
125Army2-6
126Hawai'i2-7
127Temple2-6
128Southern Mississippi1-7
129Connecticut1-7
130East Carolina1-7
131Kent State1-7
132Akron1-7
133Sam Houston State0-8


2023 History and #1s
Week 1 Jacksonville State and San Diego State
Week 2 Notre Dame
Week 3 Notre Dame
Week 4 Penn State
Week 5 Texas
Week 6 Oklahoma
Week 7 Michigan
Week 8 Michigan