Tenets of Wilson

2025-01-20

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Divisional Sunday

Philadelphia over Buffalo

I didn't realize until just now that I only had 3 teams on top of the NFC all regular season, and it only transitioned twice, from New Orleans to Minnesota to Detroit. New Orleans was kind of a weird outlier because they started with 2 big wins, but by the time they lost to Philadelphia in week 3, Minnesota got their third win, two of which were by a huge scoring margin. Detroit lost their second game of the year, so it took them some time to overtake Minnesota. Philadelphia was a strong #2 most of the season. Towards the end of the game it looked like they'd be the next team knocked out on Sunday, but LA couldn't quite get it done. Baltimore and Buffalo, on the other hand, lived up to my nearly 50/50 projection, coming just one dropped 2 point conversion away from likely going to overtime.

Who am I rooting for next?
Record so far: 3-7

Washington at Philadelphia (65%)
I've never really rooted for Washington, but used to like Philadelphia back in the days of Donovan McNabb, TO, and Brian Westbrook. Let's go with Philadelphia again.

Buffalo (64%) at Kansas City
It's pretty amazing that Kansas City is in their 7th straight AFC Championship, and if not for the loss to Cincinnati in the 2021-22 playoffs, they would have a chance to go to their 6th straight Super Bowl. Of course, they do have a chance to make it 3 straight wins, which no one has ever done. So while I root for Kansas City anyway, I also root for "never/always" statistical records to get broken.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	14-3	0.781	++	++	++	++	65.1	39.0
BUF	13-4	0.744	++	++	++	++	63.8	32.1
WSH	12-5	0.656	-	++	++	++	34.9	15.6
KC	15-2	0.622	++	++	++	++	36.2	13.3
DET	15-2	0.817	++	++	++	-	-	-
BAL	12-5	0.747	++	++	++	-	-	-
DEN	10-7	0.718	-	++	-	-	-	-
GB	11-6	0.716	-	++	-	-	-	-
LAC	11-6	0.704	-	++	-	-	-	-
TB	10-7	0.689	++	++	-	-	-	-
MIN	14-3	0.688	-	++	-	-	-	-
PIT	10-7	0.568	-	++	-	-	-	-
CIN	9-8	0.563	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	8-9	0.540	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	10-7	0.514	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	10-7	0.500	++	++	++	-	-	-
LAR	10-7	0.462	++	++	++	-	-	-
MIA	8-9	0.460	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	8-9	0.438	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-11	0.415	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	8-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-12	0.380	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-12	0.370	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-12	0.369	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-10	0.295	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	4-13	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	4-13	0.265	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-13	0.250	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-14	0.236	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-14	0.222	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-12	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-14	0.173	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 13, Friday)
First to clinch a Division: Buffalo (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a Bye: Kansas City (Week 17, Wednesday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Friday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 16, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 16, Saturday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 16, Sunday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 16, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Wednesday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Saturday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Sunday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 18, Saturday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 18, Final] Detroit over Baltimore
[Wildcard Saturday] Detroit over Baltimore
[Wildcard Sunday] Detroit over Baltimore
[Wildcard Monday] Detroit over Baltimore
[Divisional Saturday] Philadelphia over Kansas City

2025-01-19

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Divisional Saturday

Philadelphia over Kansas City

Detroit had been projected to make the Super Bowl after every game day since Week 8. They got the bye and everything, then couldn't quite keep up with Washington once they opened the playoffs. Maybe I can do better in the AFC, where, also since week 8, my only projected participants have been Buffalo, Kansas City, and Baltimore, the three teams that remain after Kansas City beat Houston on Saturday. Kansas City is now projected as the most likely AFC champ, but that's only because the other two are splitting the ticket until today's game. Kansas City's chances will remain at about 36%, and the winner of today's game will be about 64%.

Who am I rooting for next?
Record so far: 2-6

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia (81%)
I'll root for Philadelphia in this one, just because of my residual Kroenke distaste.

Baltimore (50%) at Buffalo
I think between these two teams, I'd rather see Buffalo win. However, between the two of them, I think Baltimore would be slightly easier for Kansas City to beat. For utilitarian purposes, I'll root for Baltimore.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	14-3	0.781	++	++	++	80.5	52.5	31.4
WSH	12-5	0.656	-	++	++	++	41.5	18.5
BAL	12-5	0.747	++	++	++	50.5	32.4	17.4
BUF	13-4	0.744	++	++	++	49.5	31.6	16.8
KC	15-2	0.622	++	++	++	++	36.0	14.3
LAR	10-7	0.462	++	++	++	19.5	6.0	1.6
DET	15-2	0.817	++	++	++	-	-	-
DEN	10-7	0.718	-	++	-	-	-	-
GB	11-6	0.716	-	++	-	-	-	-
LAC	11-6	0.704	-	++	-	-	-	-
TB	10-7	0.689	++	++	-	-	-	-
MIN	14-3	0.688	-	++	-	-	-	-
PIT	10-7	0.568	-	++	-	-	-	-
CIN	9-8	0.563	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	8-9	0.540	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	10-7	0.514	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	10-7	0.500	++	++	++	-	-	-
MIA	8-9	0.460	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	8-9	0.438	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-11	0.415	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	8-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-12	0.380	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-12	0.370	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-12	0.369	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-10	0.295	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	4-13	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	4-13	0.265	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-13	0.250	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-14	0.236	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-14	0.222	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-12	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-14	0.173	-	-	-	-	-	-

2025-01-14

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Wildcard Monday

Detroit over Baltimore

LA took down Minnesota, and I went 1-5 in rooting this round. There are 8 teams left, so only 7 games remain to right my record.

Houston at Kansas City (62%)
Kansas City, of course.

Washington at Detroit (70%)
Let's go for both #1s and root for Detroit too.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	15-2	0.817	++	++	++	70.1	42.9	28.0
PHI	14-3	0.781	++	++	++	80.5	40.7	24.5
BAL	12-5	0.747	++	++	++	50.4	34.4	15.8
BUF	13-4	0.743	++	++	++	49.6	33.6	15.4
KC	15-2	0.622	++	++	++	62.2	22.4	7.3
WSH	12-5	0.656	-	++	++	29.9	12.4	5.6
HOU	10-7	0.500	++	++	++	37.8	9.6	2.2
LAR	10-7	0.462	++	++	++	19.5	4.0	1.1
DEN	10-7	0.718	-	++	-	-	-	-
GB	11-6	0.716	-	++	-	-	-	-
LAC	11-6	0.704	-	++	-	-	-	-
TB	10-7	0.689	++	++	-	-	-	-
MIN	14-3	0.687	-	++	-	-	-	-
PIT	10-7	0.568	-	++	-	-	-	-
CIN	9-8	0.563	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	8-9	0.540	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	10-7	0.514	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	8-9	0.460	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	8-9	0.438	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-11	0.415	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	8-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-12	0.380	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-12	0.371	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-12	0.370	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-10	0.295	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	4-13	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	4-13	0.266	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-13	0.250	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-14	0.236	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-14	0.222	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-12	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-14	0.173	-	-	-	-	-	-

2025-01-13

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Wildcard Sunday

Detroit over Baltimore

I rooted for Denver, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay on Sunday, and they all 3 lost. Let's see who I can curse today.

Minnesota (72%) at Los Angeles Rams
The first St. Louis Rams playoff game was against Minnesota in 2000, so I always associate this matchup with memories of attending the rally. Tickets for the game were near impossible to get of course. Specifically, I remember a ridiculous advertisement for bagels (I think Lender's) featuring a giant toaster and people dressed as Minnesota fans, ostensibly being toasted? Kind of a weird look for a human-based mascot, honestly. They also handed out blue and yellow bagels. Despite my silly memories, or maybe because of them, I'll root against LA and Stan Kroenke on Monday.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	15-2	0.817	++	++	++	70.1	42.3	27.7
PHI	14-3	0.781	++	++	++	67.1	33.9	20.4
BAL	12-5	0.747	++	++	++	50.4	34.4	16.0
BUF	13-4	0.744	++	++	++	49.6	33.6	15.5
KC	15-2	0.622	++	++	++	62.2	22.4	7.4
WSH	12-5	0.656	-	++	++	29.9	11.9	5.4
MIN	14-3	0.688	-	++	71.9	27.5	10.8	5.2
HOU	10-7	0.500	++	++	++	37.8	9.6	2.2
LAR	10-7	0.462	++	++	28.1	5.5	1.1	0.3
DEN	10-7	0.718	-	++	-	-	-	-
GB	11-6	0.716	-	++	-	-	-	-
LAC	11-6	0.704	-	++	-	-	-	-
TB	10-7	0.689	++	++	-	-	-	-
PIT	10-7	0.568	-	++	-	-	-	-
CIN	9-8	0.563	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	8-9	0.540	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	10-7	0.514	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	8-9	0.460	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	8-9	0.438	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-11	0.415	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	8-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-12	0.380	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-12	0.371	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-12	0.370	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-10	0.295	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	4-13	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	4-13	0.266	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-13	0.250	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-14	0.236	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-14	0.222	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-12	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-14	0.173	-	-	-	-	-	-

2025-01-12

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Wildcard Saturday

Detroit over Baltimore

On Saturday, Houston won at home in an upset over Los Angeles, and Baltimore took care of the flailing Pittsburgh.

Who am I rooting for on Sunday:

Denver at Buffalo (53%)
Denver is sneakily good for a 10-7 team that barely made the playoffs. I think I'll root for them, if nothing else to maybe give Kansas City a slightly better overall shot at the Superbowl.

Green Bay at Philadelphia (59%)
I kind of like both of these teams. Maybe it's the Green uniforms. I'll probably root for either winner next round. I'll root for Green Bay this time around, so I have to go re-re-redo my research about teams trying for a third win against the same opponent, as Detroit has already beaten them twice.

Washington at Tampa Bay (54%)
I used to really like Tampa Bay back in the days of Warren Sapp, Mike Alstott, and Martin Gramatica. Those guys are long gone, but let's root for Tampa Bay for old times' sake.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	15-2	0.817	++	++	++	68.1	43.3	28.3
BAL	12-5	0.747	++	++	++	61.8	38.5	18.3
PHI	14-3	0.781	++	++	58.6	37.6	18.9	11.4
BUF	13-4	0.744	++	++	53.2	26.4	17.9	8.4
KC	15-2	0.622	++	++	++	51.5	19.7	6.7
DEN	10-7	0.718	-	++	46.8	28.4	15.0	6.6
MIN	14-3	0.688	-	++	71.9	30.3	11.9	5.8
TB	10-7	0.689	++	++	53.7	24.6	9.5	4.6
GB	11-6	0.716	-	++	41.4	14.9	8.3	4.3
WSH	12-5	0.656	-	++	46.3	18.2	6.7	3.0
HOU	10-7	0.500	++	++	++	31.9	8.9	2.1
LAR	10-7	0.462	++	++	28.1	6.3	1.3	0.4
LAC	11-6	0.704	-	++	-	-	-	-
PIT	10-7	0.568	-	++	-	-	-	-
CIN	9-8	0.563	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	8-9	0.540	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	10-7	0.514	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	8-9	0.460	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	8-9	0.438	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-11	0.415	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	8-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-12	0.380	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-12	0.370	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-12	0.369	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-10	0.295	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	4-13	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	4-13	0.265	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-13	0.250	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-14	0.236	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-14	0.222	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-12	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-14	0.173	-	-	-	-	-	-

2025-01-06

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 18, Final

Detroit over Baltimore

Kansas City wasn't an overpowering team as it was, then they go and lose 38-0 in a game they didn't really show up for. That puts Baltimore as the top AFC team now, despite having to play during wildcard weekend. This is also Baltimore's first appearance on the projection this season.

Now, as is tradition, here's who I'm rooting for on Wildcard Saturday:

Los Angeles Chargers (70%) at Houston
I don't know, Harbaugh I guess. I don't care much about either of these two teams, but LA did execute a fair catch kick a few weeks ago. I do enjoy a good rulebook quirk.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (69%)
I've got to root for my Pittsburgh pals, although I don't seem to have the strong distaste for Baltimore that I used to.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	15-2	0.817	++	++	++	68.1	43.4	28.4
PHI	14-3	0.781	++	++	58.6	37.6	18.9	11.4
BAL	12-5	0.747	++	++	69.2	38.4	22.9	10.9
BUF	13-4	0.744	++	++	53.2	28.2	17.8	8.4
LAC	11-6	0.704	-	++	70.4	37.2	18.9	8.0
DEN	10-7	0.718	-	++	46.8	28.4	15.1	6.7
KC	15-2	0.622	++	++	++	44.9	17.7	6.0
MIN	14-3	0.688	-	++	71.9	30.3	11.9	5.8
TB	10-7	0.689	++	++	53.7	24.6	9.5	4.6
GB	11-6	0.716	-	++	41.4	14.9	8.3	4.3
WSH	12-5	0.656	-	++	46.3	18.2	6.7	3.0
PIT	10-7	0.568	-	++	30.8	13.3	4.8	1.4
HOU	10-7	0.500	++	++	29.6	9.6	2.9	0.7
LAR	10-7	0.462	++	++	28.1	6.3	1.3	0.4
CIN	9-8	0.563	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	8-9	0.540	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	10-7	0.514	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	8-9	0.460	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	8-9	0.438	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-11	0.415	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	8-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-12	0.380	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-12	0.370	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-12	0.369	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-10	0.295	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	4-13	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	4-13	0.265	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-13	0.250	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-14	0.236	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-14	0.222	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-12	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-14	0.173	-	-	-	-	-	-

2025-01-05

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 18, Saturday

Detroit over Kansas City

I'm not sure exactly what the NFL was hoping for by putting both games from the same division on Saturday. It kind of worked out, in that Pittsburgh was motivated to try to win to at least get a higher wildcard seed, although if Baltimore had lost, they'd be playing for the division title. Cincinnati needed a win to stay alive and got it, without any concurrent games by Denver or Miami going on to knock them out. The final Sunday has 2 NFC divisions left to settle, with the NFC South loser getting left out of the playoffs, while the NFC North loser will be just about the best wildcard team ever. The AFC has one wildcard spot to give out, with Denver, Miami, and the aforementioned Cincinnati in the hunt.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	14-2	0.786	58.7	++	89.2	55.2	33.0	20.0
KC	15-1	0.693	++	++	++	59.7	28.1	12.5
BUF	13-3	0.747	++	++	68.1	37.5	22.4	11.4
BAL	12-5	0.747	++	++	67.4	36.9	22.0	11.2
PHI	13-3	0.764	++	++	57.3	35.4	18.9	10.9
MIN	14-2	0.721	41.3	++	80.6	41.4	19.6	10.2
LAC	10-6	0.680	-	++	65.2	31.1	14.9	6.4
GB	11-5	0.717	-	++	47.4	21.3	11.0	5.7
WSH	11-5	0.648	-	++	55.5	21.8	8.5	3.7
TB	9-7	0.675	81.6	81.6	37.9	16.9	7.1	3.3
PIT	10-7	0.568	-	++	35.2	13.3	4.9	1.6
DEN	9-7	0.649	-	45.1	17.4	7.8	3.6	1.4
HOU	9-7	0.482	++	++	32.2	9.0	2.6	0.6
LAR	10-6	0.472	++	++	28.2	6.9	1.6	0.5
CIN	9-8	0.563	-	19.8	6.0	2.2	0.8	0.3
MIA	8-8	0.485	-	35.2	8.5	2.5	0.8	0.2
ATL	8-8	0.446	18.4	18.4	3.9	1.0	0.2	0.1
SEA	9-7	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	7-9	0.496	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-10	0.455	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	7-9	0.402	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-11	0.395	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-12	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-12	0.346	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-9	0.304	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	4-12	0.290	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	4-12	0.288	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-13	0.255	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-13	0.242	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-13	0.239	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-12	0.196	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-14	0.173	-	-	-	-	-	-

2024-12-31

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 17, Final

Detroit over Kansas City

If you're not seeing this until the following Sunday, I assure you it's not because I forgot to post it. It doesn't matter too much, because despite involving the top team in the NFC, the Monday night game didn't really matter, and the winner of Detroit and Minnesota in Week 18 will get the bye, while the loser will be the #5 seed and most likely travel to Atlanta, Tampa Bay, or maybe LA.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	14-2	0.786	58.7	++	89.2	55.2	33.0	20.4
KC	15-1	0.693	++	++	++	59.2	29.2	13.0
BUF	13-3	0.747	++	++	67.3	40.9	24.3	12.4
PHI	13-3	0.764	++	++	57.3	35.4	18.9	11.1
MIN	14-2	0.721	41.3	++	80.6	41.4	19.6	10.5
BAL	11-5	0.709	94.9	++	59.0	30.3	16.8	7.8
LAC	10-6	0.680	-	++	56.8	28.8	14.2	6.1
GB	11-5	0.717	-	++	47.4	21.3	11.0	5.8
WSH	11-5	0.648	-	++	55.5	21.8	8.5	3.8
TB	9-7	0.675	81.6	81.6	37.9	16.9	7.1	3.4
PIT	10-6	0.571	5.1	++	48.2	17.5	6.5	2.1
DEN	9-7	0.649	-	55.2	21.3	9.6	4.8	1.9
HOU	9-7	0.482	++	++	36.1	10.1	3.0	0.7
LAR	10-6	0.472	++	++	28.2	6.9	1.6	0.5
MIA	8-8	0.485	-	35.2	8.5	2.5	0.8	0.2
CIN	8-8	0.558	-	9.6	2.9	1.0	0.4	0.1
ATL	8-8	0.446	18.4	18.4	3.9	1.0	0.2	0.1
SEA	9-7	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	7-9	0.496	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-10	0.455	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	7-9	0.402	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-11	0.395	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-12	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-12	0.346	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-9	0.304	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	4-12	0.290	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	4-12	0.287	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-13	0.255	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-13	0.242	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-13	0.239	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-13	0.211	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-12	0.196	-	-	-	-	-	-