2017-09-25

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Kansas City over Atlanta

Baltimore lost by a huge margin, and I was starting to think they'd get shut out. Carolina didn't do much better, so we've got 2 new teams projected for the Superbowl. Kansas City won a division game to rocket up the charts, and Atlanta defeated the only other undefeated NFC team to take their position. By virtue of the way I calculate strength, Cincinnati pulled a little ahead of the now-league-worst Giants, despite both teams losing 27-24. Nothing much should change after tonight, with a matchup of two teams hovering around .480 and in the lower half of the league.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC3-00.55852.3176.4059.5731.9417.019.16
ATL3-00.53652.1873.5857.0729.8615.547.84
JAC2-10.56347.0167.2949.6026.8114.387.83
LAR2-10.54556.1764.4545.2123.9812.676.50
BUF2-10.53948.3062.2343.9022.4411.385.92
PIT2-10.53352.7462.3841.9021.1010.565.42
DET2-10.53936.5655.3039.0420.4510.675.41
TEN2-10.52939.9156.4838.4619.279.604.89
PHI2-10.51741.7156.1838.1619.069.484.60
WAS2-10.52336.9953.4736.4518.429.274.55
OAK2-10.53322.2851.2134.0817.148.654.44
DEN2-10.53324.4850.3533.3416.768.444.34
MIN2-10.52031.1450.3234.3917.328.704.25
CAR2-10.51621.4743.1228.3014.107.023.40
NE2-10.50630.5843.9227.5313.066.163.00
BAL2-10.49239.5349.9529.8113.706.272.97
GB2-10.50024.5140.8626.1612.586.052.83
TB1-10.51117.2534.2521.7710.715.272.52
ARI1-10.48123.4031.1218.218.423.891.75
DAL1-10.48019.2630.4318.358.453.891.75
NO1-20.4919.1020.4511.995.662.681.23
SEA1-20.47216.4722.8312.745.782.621.15
MIA1-10.46712.9621.9012.235.322.311.04
NYJ1-20.4588.1614.247.393.151.340.59
CHI1-20.4527.7913.897.443.221.400.59
HOU1-20.4576.7713.877.333.131.340.59
IND1-20.4396.3113.246.912.831.160.48
CLE0-30.4604.247.053.451.470.630.28
SF0-30.4503.966.143.021.300.560.23
CIN0-30.4343.495.352.491.000.400.17
LAC0-30.4570.934.152.030.860.370.16
NYG0-30.4312.043.621.710.700.290.12


[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore

2017-09-24

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 4

I had to wait for a Sunday morning game, but Week 4 is complete. Connecticut hosting East Carolina got rescheduled to this weekend due to some hurricane reshuffling, and put on Sunday because Connecticut's field was being used by MLS on Saturday. But you didn't come here to read about the #98 and #103 teams.

Georgia won again and retained their #1 spot. We're down to 24 undefeated teams, from 37 last week. At the bottom of the charts, UMass hung on to #130 with another loss, but UTEP, Charlotte, Bowling Green, and Nevada are hot on their heels.

Missouri reportedly still has a football team, and I'm really hoping they'll show up in Kentucky after the bye week, because whoever that was out there this week gave up 51 points to Auburn.


1Georgia4-0
2USC4-0
3Michigan4-0
4Clemson4-0
5San Diego State4-0
6South Florida4-0
7Wake Forest4-0
8Virginia Tech4-0
9TCU4-0
10Alabama4-0
11Washington4-0
12Penn State4-0
13Oklahoma4-0
14Duke4-0
15Washington State4-0
16Utah4-0
17Texas Tech3-0
18California3-1
19Iowa3-1
20Mississippi State3-1
21Notre Dame3-1
22Navy3-0
23South Carolina3-1
24Ohio State3-1
25Kentucky3-1
26Memphis3-0
27Louisville3-1
28Colorado3-1
29Oregon3-1
30Virginia3-1
31SMU3-1
32Minnesota3-0
33Vanderbilt3-1
34Wisconsin3-0
35NC State3-1
36LSU3-1
37Texas A&M3-1
38Ohio3-1
39Toledo3-1
40Oklahoma State3-1
41Auburn3-1
42Florida2-1
43Troy3-1
44West Virginia3-1
45Tennessee3-1
46UT San Antonio3-0
47Arizona State2-2
48UCF2-0
49Tulane2-2
50Boise State2-2
51Cincinnati2-2
52Illinois2-1
53UCLA2-2
54Purdue2-2
55Miami2-0
56Ole Miss2-1
57Indiana2-1
58Stanford2-2
59Marshall2-1
60Georgia Tech2-1
61Louisiana Tech2-2
62Houston2-1
63Maryland2-1
64Michigan State2-1
65Wyoming2-2
66Utah State2-2
67Florida Intl2-1
68Iowa State2-1
69Northern Illinois2-1
70Kansas State2-1
71Miami (OH)2-2
72North Texas2-2
73Middle Tennessee2-2
74Temple2-2
75Army2-2
76Western Michigan2-2
77Colorado State2-2
78Southern Mississippi2-1
78Appalachian State2-2
80Old Dominion2-2
81Hawai'i2-2
82Western Kentucky2-2
83Nebraska2-2
84Northwestern2-1
85Eastern Michigan2-1
86Syracuse2-2
87New Mexico State2-2
88Buffalo2-2
89Arizona2-2
90Ball State2-2
91Idaho2-2
92New Mexico2-2
93Central Michigan2-2
94Boston College1-3
95UAB2-2
96North Carolina1-3
97Arkansas1-2
98East Carolina1-3
99Kent State1-3
100Air Force1-2
101Fresno State1-2
102Pittsburgh1-3
103Connecticut1-2
104Texas1-2
105Arkansas State1-2
106UNLV1-2
107Akron1-3
108Georgia State1-2
109BYU1-3
110Louisiana Monroe1-2
111Missouri1-3
112Oregon State1-3
113Florida Atlantic1-3
114Texas State1-3
115Tulsa1-3
116Coastal Carolina1-2
117South Alabama1-3
118Rutgers1-3
119Rice1-3
120Kansas1-3
121San Jose State1-4
122Florida State0-2
123Louisiana1-3
124Baylor0-4
125Georgia Southern0-3
126Nevada0-4
127Bowling Green0-4
128Charlotte0-4
129UTEP0-4
130UMass0-5

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia

2017-09-22

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 3, Thursday

Carolina over Baltimore

The Rams made a push for it, but couldn't quite take over the top spot in the NFC. If they hadn't allowed San Francisco to score 39 points they would have had a chance.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
CAR2-00.56241.6469.3752.6928.9115.838.43
BAL2-00.56151.7072.1455.0529.8616.098.65
OAK2-00.54731.9360.9344.1023.1412.086.33
LAR2-10.54552.7063.8445.6924.1512.626.51
DET2-00.54355.3469.7453.0928.1114.677.55
PIT2-00.54242.8164.7447.0924.4312.626.55
DEN2-00.54234.9661.6744.6523.1511.936.18
KC2-00.53229.5256.7339.9120.2210.205.19
TB1-00.53024.4751.3235.1317.889.154.59
ATL2-00.53030.8760.6842.6721.7311.115.56
TEN1-10.52042.9750.0531.5815.497.593.77
BUF1-10.51232.7342.2726.4912.796.163.01
PHI1-10.51238.4347.7430.6615.007.303.52
MIA1-00.50534.9444.5828.3413.516.403.09
JAC1-10.50231.4540.9124.8111.705.512.64
NE1-10.50125.8833.5419.939.414.432.12
GB1-10.49320.3833.6120.739.804.602.14
LAC0-20.4893.5911.406.352.931.350.63
WAS1-10.48827.2937.5822.8510.614.902.25
MIN1-10.48518.1931.0818.858.754.041.84
ARI1-10.48221.3431.1118.588.543.901.77
SEA1-10.48122.4932.6319.579.004.111.86
DAL1-10.48027.0835.6921.239.694.411.99
CLE0-20.4633.069.414.932.140.930.41
NO0-20.4613.029.395.032.210.980.42
HOU1-10.45416.6923.4612.695.382.280.98
NYJ0-20.4516.449.314.601.930.820.35
SF0-30.4513.486.253.131.340.570.24
CHI0-20.4496.109.965.172.220.950.40
IND0-20.4438.8912.426.252.581.070.45
NYG0-20.4417.209.994.932.050.860.35
CIN0-20.4402.436.433.221.340.550.23


[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore

2017-09-19

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 2, Final

Carolina over Baltimore

The projection at the top stayed the same, although Detroit is now the second most likely team to win the NFC. And despite the pitiful loss, the Giants are not quite the worst team in the league, still hovering a bit above Cincinnati.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
CAR2-00.56241.6769.6353.1129.2116.048.55
BAL2-00.56151.7472.1355.0529.8716.098.67
OAK2-00.54731.9460.8744.0523.1212.076.34
LAR1-10.54444.7255.1738.5420.3310.635.48
DET2-00.54355.2469.7853.4528.3914.847.63
PIT2-00.54242.7664.6747.0124.3812.606.54
DEN2-00.54134.9561.6244.5923.1111.916.18
KC2-00.53129.5156.6639.8520.1810.185.19
TB1-00.53024.4751.5135.4218.079.274.65
ATL2-00.52930.8360.8342.9521.9111.235.62
TEN1-10.52042.9050.0431.6015.507.593.78
BUF1-10.51232.6942.2326.4712.796.153.01
PHI1-10.51138.3747.8731.0015.227.423.58
MIA1-00.50534.9544.5928.3513.526.413.10
JAC1-10.50231.4540.9624.8611.735.532.65
NE1-10.50125.8933.5519.949.424.442.13
GB1-10.49320.3933.7521.009.974.692.18
LAC0-20.4893.6011.426.362.931.360.63
WAS1-10.48927.2837.7823.1610.805.002.30
MIN1-10.48518.2231.2019.088.894.121.88
ARI1-10.48223.6432.5319.519.004.121.87
SEA1-10.48124.7233.9320.429.424.311.95
DAL1-10.48127.1335.9221.579.894.502.04
CLE0-20.4633.079.444.952.150.940.41
NO0-20.4613.039.485.112.251.000.43
HOU1-10.45416.7423.5712.765.412.300.99
NYJ0-20.4516.469.344.621.940.820.35
CHI0-20.4506.1610.145.322.300.980.41
IND0-20.4438.9112.486.292.601.080.45
SF0-20.4436.9110.405.352.260.950.39
NYG0-20.4417.2110.085.012.100.880.36
CIN0-20.4402.446.443.231.340.560.23


[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore

2017-09-18

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Carolina over Baltimore

Both conference leaders fell from their perches, and now we've got a brand new matchup projected, Carolina over Baltimore. Still, if I get that right this early in the season, I'll be pretty surprised.

I watched a video today of Dan Dierdorf delivering the news to St. Louis that the Cardinals would be leaving for Arizona. I didn't previously know that he became a sports anchor on one of our local stations right after his career for a few years before Monday Night Football signed him. Anyway, that video led me to video of a similar report in Baltimore when the Colts left town a few years prior. Then I noticed in week 2 it was Cardinals vs Colts. Also in the first 2 weeks was Rams vs Colts and Ravens vs Browns. Then I figured when the Rams were still in St. Louis, the NFL should have scheduled them against the Ravens at the same time the Colts played the Cardinals, just to catch any potentially confused time travelers. But, then I realized due to the way the schedule works, the Rams and Cardinals, both NFC West teams, could play either the AFC South with Indianapolis or the AFC North with Baltimore, but not both in a given year. It was a slow day at work.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
CAR2-00.56241.7970.2954.1029.9716.668.87
BAL2-00.56151.7372.4455.3430.0316.188.79
PIT2-00.54242.7765.0247.3224.5412.686.64
OAK2-00.54731.9460.5543.8022.9912.006.35
DEN2-00.54134.9561.3044.3422.9811.846.20
ATL2-00.52930.9461.5143.9022.5611.715.86
LAR1-10.54444.7455.1739.1720.9211.025.68
KC2-00.53229.5156.3339.6120.0610.125.20
TB1-00.53024.2251.7935.9418.489.604.81
DET1-00.51743.1655.2938.9819.669.784.78
TEN1-10.52042.9150.0831.6115.517.603.82
PHI1-10.51135.7445.9330.3515.087.423.58
MIA1-00.50534.9544.6228.3713.536.423.13
BUF1-10.51232.7042.2726.4912.806.163.04
JAC1-10.50231.4440.9824.8611.735.532.68
GB1-10.49325.5936.6923.1611.095.252.44
WAS1-10.48925.3636.2122.7310.735.012.31
NE1-10.50125.8933.5819.969.424.432.15
MIN1-10.48523.0633.9821.089.924.622.11
DAL1-10.48025.5934.9221.469.974.582.07
SEA1-10.48124.7233.9720.819.724.492.03
ARI1-10.48223.6232.5019.869.284.301.95
NYG0-10.46913.3119.8311.495.202.341.03
HOU1-10.45416.7423.5912.775.422.301.00
LAC0-20.4893.6011.276.282.901.340.63
CHI0-20.4508.1911.726.172.681.160.49
NO0-20.4613.059.775.332.371.060.46
IND0-20.4438.9112.506.302.601.080.46
CLE0-20.4633.069.595.032.190.950.42
SF0-20.4436.9110.425.482.351.000.41
NYJ0-20.4516.459.344.631.950.820.36
CIN0-20.4402.446.563.291.360.570.24


[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams

2017-09-17

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 3

Week 3 is complete and so are my rankings. Last week's #1, UCLA, lost to Memphis to fall all the way down to #28. Now at the top are Georgia, California, and Clemson. Georgia has the best possible strength of schedule, beating 3 teams that are all 2-1, but this week was an FCS opponent.

At the bottom of the table, the rankings remained remarkably stable this week, with #128-#130 going to Nevada, UTEP, and UMass once again. UMass may need someone to lose during their bye week to catch up to their 0-4 record.

As for my usual Missouri blurb, they lost 35-3. At least they were only outscored 7-0 in the second half, but that was probably as much to do with Purdue protecting a 25-point lead as it was any defensive adjustments. I'm no football expert, but I think they're going to need to score at least a touchdown to win most games.

1Georgia3-0
2California3-0
3Clemson3-0
4South Florida3-0
5Michigan3-0
6Iowa3-0
7Oregon3-0
8Colorado3-0
9Kentucky3-0
10San Diego State3-0
11Mississippi State3-0
12Wake Forest3-0
13Washington3-0
14Oklahoma State3-0
15Oklahoma3-0
16TCU3-0
17USC3-0
18Virginia Tech3-0
19Vanderbilt3-0
20Alabama3-0
21Washington State3-0
22Wisconsin3-0
23Minnesota3-0
24Duke3-0
25Toledo3-0
26Penn State3-0
27Utah3-0
28UCLA2-1
29Louisville2-1
T-30Notre Dame2-1
T-30Ohio State2-1
32Maryland2-0
33South Carolina2-1
34Purdue2-1
35Illinois2-1
36Memphis2-0
37Ohio2-1
38Ole Miss2-1
39Navy2-0
40Texas A&M2-1
41Houston2-0
42Texas Tech2-0
43Boise State2-1
44Virginia2-1
45Iowa State2-1
46NC State2-1
47SMU2-1
48Cincinnati2-1
49Kansas State2-1
50Marshall2-1
51Louisiana Tech2-1
52Hawai'i2-1
53Appalachian State2-1
54Ball State2-1
55Michigan State2-0
56Army2-1
57Colorado State2-2
58Auburn2-1
59Eastern Michigan2-0
60Temple2-1
61Northern Illinois2-1
62LSU2-1
63Central Michigan2-1
64UT San Antonio2-0
65Southern Mississippi2-1
66Syracuse2-1
67Old Dominion2-1
68West Virginia2-1
69UAB2-1
70Northwestern2-1
71Troy2-1
72Tennessee2-1
73Arizona2-1
74Indiana1-1
75Connecticut1-1
76Florida1-1
77Middle Tennessee1-2
78North Carolina1-2
79Boston College1-2
80Pittsburgh1-2
81Utah State1-2
82Tulane1-2
83UCF1-0
84Arkansas1-1
85Stanford1-2
86Miami1-0
87Tulsa1-2
88Texas1-2
89Kent State1-2
90Wyoming1-2
91Arizona State1-2
92Air Force1-1
93Nebraska1-2
94Akron1-2
95Florida Atlantic1-2
96North Texas1-2
97Missouri1-2
98Texas State1-2
99Western Michigan1-2
100Buffalo1-2
101Georgia Tech1-1
102Fresno State1-2
103South Alabama1-2
104Miami (OH)1-2
105Florida Intl1-1
106Western Kentucky1-2
107Arkansas State1-1
108Rutgers1-2
109Coastal Carolina1-1
110Oregon State1-3
111BYU1-3
112Kansas1-2
113UNLV1-1
114Rice1-2
115San Jose State1-3
116New Mexico State1-2
117New Mexico1-2
118Louisiana1-2
119Idaho1-2
120Florida State0-1
121Georgia State0-2
122Louisiana Monroe0-2
123East Carolina0-3
124Baylor0-3
125Georgia Southern0-2
126Charlotte0-3
127Bowling Green0-3
128Nevada0-3
129UTEP0-3
130UMass0-4

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA

2017-09-15

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 2, Thursday

Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams

Last night two teams from the bottom of my table faced off, and predictably few points were scored. Houston won 13-9, and Cincinnati is now just 0.36% likely to win the Superbowl. Of course, it's still very early, and I don't trust these numbers very much with two 0-0 teams still in the mix.

Since both teams were near the bottom, the projection at the top stayed the same. I'm not a big gambler, but I bet would get pretty good odds betting on Jacksonville to win and LA to make the Superbowl.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
JAC1-00.53052.6263.6846.4524.3812.746.58
BAL1-00.53144.4859.4342.9322.6111.866.14
LAR1-00.53149.9259.5842.4922.0611.415.95
DAL1-00.53141.5056.3239.9920.8110.805.64
BUF1-00.52145.3957.7840.7420.9510.745.44
CAR1-00.53136.4653.7038.2719.9210.345.40
PHI1-00.52138.0853.0336.7818.739.524.87
KC1-00.51830.6850.6135.3618.069.214.63
OAK1-00.51929.6449.9634.8617.869.144.61
GB1-00.52330.2949.4234.3817.578.964.60
PIT1-00.50736.4052.0735.5417.738.844.36
DET1-00.51729.3448.3633.3116.808.464.29
MIN1-00.51729.1747.5232.6016.458.294.21
ATL1-00.51330.7247.3932.3016.168.074.06
DEN1-00.50629.1248.2332.8616.378.144.00
MIA0-00.50026.0537.9324.5912.095.922.88
TB0-00.50021.0134.6022.3010.845.272.59
CLE0-10.49314.6426.3416.117.803.781.81
TEN0-10.48117.8426.4015.817.453.511.64
LAC0-10.49410.5622.8814.006.803.301.59
ARI0-10.48318.0625.2714.886.973.261.55
NE0-10.48215.9924.5514.596.903.261.53
IND0-10.46915.1724.4214.446.633.041.39
SEA0-10.47716.7423.5913.736.352.931.37
CHI0-10.48711.2021.1712.665.992.841.36
NYJ0-10.47912.5821.7312.786.012.821.31
NO0-10.48311.8120.5812.175.712.681.27
HOU1-10.45514.3825.2814.456.412.851.26
WAS0-10.47910.9320.1111.745.462.541.19
SF0-10.46915.2821.5812.245.562.521.16
NYG0-10.4699.4817.8110.154.622.100.97
CIN0-20.4404.498.704.521.950.850.36


[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams

2017-09-14

Another Autographed Ball

Inspired by this post from the lost collector, I decided to send a letter to Commissioner Rob Manfred to ask for an autographed ball. I wrote a real letter, and gave him some feedback on some of the changes he's been implementing, hoping that maybe I'd get some sort of reply. I complimented his efforts to grow the fanbase of the game, but told him I thought the automatic intentional walk was a bad idea, citing Tony Pena, who has twice faked an intentional walk on a full count and tricked the batter into a strikeout. But, when my padded envelope came in the mail, there was no reply, except for this baseball with a nice clear signature.


Robert D. Manfred, Jr.

2017-09-12

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 1

Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams

If you've followed along in the past, you may have noticed I usually post projections after every day of games, except in week 1, where I wait for everyone to play a game. Well, Hurricane Irma moved a week 1 game to week 11, so Miami and Tampa have no points scored or against, which is very unfortunate in my projection formula. I've done the sanest thing I could think to do, which is just assume they both have a strength of .500 until they play.

Here's a quick rundown originally taken from 2014's introductory post.
Each year I project the Superbowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.
If my week 1 projection comes true, I'll eat my hat. But, Jacksonville and LA both scored a ton of points and didn't allow many, and are the only 1-0 teams in their divisions, so they're in the position of strength for their respective conferences. But, everyone's no more than 2 games of the pace, so anything can still happen.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
JAC1-00.53053.5463.7646.2824.2812.686.54
BAL1-00.53142.6958.0741.9822.0911.585.99
LAR1-00.53149.9659.5642.4622.0311.395.94
DAL1-00.53141.5056.4240.0920.8710.825.65
CAR1-00.53136.4553.8238.3819.9810.375.41
BUF1-00.52145.1657.4340.5020.8110.665.40
PHI1-00.52138.1253.1836.9118.809.554.89
OAK1-00.51929.8550.0334.9917.929.164.63
KC1-00.51830.6250.3235.1917.979.154.61
GB1-00.52330.3049.2534.2417.508.934.58
DET1-00.51729.3348.1833.1516.738.434.28
MIN1-00.51729.1947.3732.4816.408.274.20
PIT1-00.50734.1549.9734.0816.998.464.17
ATL1-00.51330.7647.5532.4416.238.114.08
DEN1-00.50628.9047.8032.5816.218.063.96
MIA0-00.50026.2238.0124.6812.125.942.89
TB0-00.50021.0134.7122.3910.885.292.59
CLE0-10.49313.5724.9015.237.373.571.71
TEN0-10.48118.0326.0115.497.293.431.60
LAC0-10.49410.6322.8514.016.803.301.58
ARI0-10.48318.0425.2014.836.943.251.54
NE0-10.48215.9324.3114.446.823.221.51
SEA0-10.47716.7323.5413.686.332.931.37
IND0-10.46915.3624.0114.136.492.981.36
CHI0-10.48711.1821.0012.555.942.811.34
NYJ0-10.47912.6821.7212.796.002.821.31
NO0-10.48311.7820.6412.225.732.691.28
HOU0-10.47013.0722.0812.785.872.701.23
WAS0-10.47910.9020.1511.765.472.551.20
SF0-10.46915.2821.5512.225.542.511.15
CIN0-10.4699.5918.7410.854.982.291.04
NYG0-10.4699.4817.8810.204.642.110.97

2017-09-10

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 2

I guess I made a slight error last week when I said there were still the same 128 FBS teams this year. I actually saw a commercial that promised something about "All 130 FBS teams", which prompted me to give it a second look. UAB has been completely reinstated. I knew they were back, but for some reason I thought they'd have to ramp back up to FBS. Coastal Carolina is in transition, but counts as an FBS opponent this year, even though they won't be bowl eligible. Whether or not I count them as FBS and display their rankings doesn't affect anyone else in my system; it's purely aesthetic. I'll add them to the chart, because I still displayed Ohio State when they were postseason ineligible, albeit under much different circumstances. So, now that Houston and UT San Antonio have played a game each, and UAB and Coastal Carolina have been added, the bottom team will be #130.

This is the second week in a row I've watched Mizzou play at someone else's house. I don't generally set my schedule around their game, and just watch it if it's on and I'm not busy. They showed some promise to start, but then Deebo Samuel of South Carolina started to look like Bo Jackson, and the game never really got competitive.

There's still a logjam of 2-0 teams, but UCLA comes out on top this week, with South Florida falling all the way to #25 without playing a game. 4 more FBS games were canceled this week, and all included currently ranked teams, which may result in some oddness later on since college games don't usually get rescheduled, especially if some of those teams with missing games are otherwise undefeated.

1UCLA2-0
2Penn State2-0
3Colorado2-0
4San Diego State2-0
5Clemson2-0
6Georgia2-0
7Illinois2-0
8Iowa2-0
9South Carolina2-0
10Oregon2-0
11Maryland2-0
12Duke2-0
13Virginia Tech2-0
14Louisville2-0
15Wake Forest2-0
16Kansas State2-0
17Wisconsin2-0
18Navy2-0
19USC2-0
20Washington State2-0
21Oklahoma State2-0
22TCU2-0
23Oklahoma2-0
24Utah2-0
25South Florida2-0
26California2-0
27SMU2-0
28Hawai'i2-1
29Vanderbilt2-0
30Tennessee2-0
31Mississippi State2-0
32Kentucky2-0
33Michigan2-0
34Alabama2-0
35Washington2-0
36Ole Miss2-0
37Army2-0
38Toledo2-0
39Minnesota2-0
40Central Michigan2-0
41Old Dominion2-0
42Michigan State2-0
43Eastern Michigan2-0
44LSU2-0
45Colorado State2-1
46Kent State1-1
47Connecticut1-0
48Akron1-1
49Pittsburgh1-1
50Texas A&M1-1
51Ohio State1-1
52UCF1-0
53Arizona State1-1
54Notre Dame1-1
55NC State1-1
56Boston College1-1
57Purdue1-1
58Houston1-0
59Ball State1-1
60Miami1-0
61Texas State1-1
62Stanford1-1
63Utah State1-1
64Iowa State1-1
65Tulane1-1
66Boise State1-1
67Texas1-1
68Tulsa1-1
69Georgia Tech1-1
70Arkansas1-1
71North Texas1-1
72Indiana1-1
73Middle Tennessee1-1
74Memphis1-0
75Appalachian State1-1
T-76UT San Antonio1-0
T-76Auburn1-1
78Nebraska1-1
79Western Kentucky1-1
80Air Force1-0
81Texas Tech1-0
82West Virginia1-1
83Wyoming1-1
84Northwestern1-1
85Coastal Carolina1-0
86UNLV1-1
87Florida Intl1-1
88New Mexico State1-1
89Temple1-1
90Northern Illinois1-1
91Southern Mississippi1-1
92Marshall1-1
93Ohio1-1
94Missouri1-1
95Virginia1-1
96Louisiana Tech1-1
97Cincinnati1-1
98Fresno State1-1
99Idaho1-1
100Kansas1-1
101UAB1-1
102Rice1-1
103Arizona1-1
104BYU1-2
105Troy1-1
106Oregon State1-2
107Louisiana1-1
108Syracuse1-1
109New Mexico1-1
110San Jose State1-2
111Miami (OH)1-1
112Florida Atlantic0-2
113Florida0-1
T-114Florida State0-1
T-114North Carolina0-2
116Georgia State0-1
117South Alabama0-2
118Charlotte0-2
119Western Michigan0-2
120Bowling Green0-2
121Buffalo0-2
122Rutgers0-2
123Louisiana Monroe0-1
124Arkansas State0-1
125Georgia Southern0-2
126East Carolina0-2
127Baylor0-2
128Nevada0-2
129UTEP0-2
130UMass0-3

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida

2017-09-07

August Card Show Autographs

From my post history, it appears I didn't go to a card show from March until August. I made up for lost time, though, and got 3 autographs last month.

T.J. Mathews
Tom Lawless #12
Luis Alicea
T.J. Mathews was there along with his dad, Nelson Mathews, but I opted not to get his autograph, since he was never a Cardinal. T.J. was traded away in the deal that brought Mark McGwire to St. Louis in 1997, and was signed as a free agent again for 2001. He was released, played for Houston, then re-signed with St. Louis in August 2002, but never made an appearance.

Tom Lawless took his time signing his ball, and it shows in his perfectly legible signature. I always appreciate the extra touches like his #12.

Finally, there's a ball that appears to have some sort of cuneiform scrawled on it, but I promise that was written by Luis Alicea.

2017-09-05

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

College football has officially finished week 1, so it's time to start ranking the teams again. In case you're new here, here's an explanation I mostly just copy from year to year, with some slight editing.

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers".  As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated.  The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that.  I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength.  I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop.  So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001.  I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings.  It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team. (i.e., an NAIA team will be listed when they play against a Div III team, but the rest of their games won't be listed, resulting in a lot of 0-1 teams mixed into my system).  I then filter the final results to only the FBS schools.

In the past, in week 1, there were only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week! However, since 2016 we seem to be in the era of the pre-Week-1 game, which means a 2-0, 0-2, and/or 1-1 team might be in the mix. Also, some teams don't play in Week 1, and you don't get a ranking until you play, thus the bottom of the chart may not be the full number of teams in FBS.

The FBS once again stayed steady at 128 teams this year, but again I still have to modify my filter slightly, to account for ESPN's stylistic differences in listing the teams. This year, Massachusetts is now UMass, and Louisiana Lafayette is just Louisiana. In the past, they've waffled between "Mississippi" and "Ole Miss", and changed Hawaii to Hawai'i. I try to keep up with any adjustments, but if you notice your FBS team missing, leave me a comment and they'll be there next week. I think I'm good, because I have 126 teams represented, and Houston and UT San Antonio still to add, since they were canceled due to Hurricane Harvey.

Now onto the Week 1 rankings, which are still mostly silly.

1South Florida2-0
2Hawai'i2-0
3Colorado1-0
4Arkansas1-0
5LSU1-0
6Colorado State1-1
7Stanford1-0
7Ohio State1-0
7Oklahoma State1-0
7UCF1-0
7Wake Forest1-0
7Cincinnati1-0
7Minnesota1-0
7Toledo1-0
7Central Michigan1-0
7Connecticut1-0
7Utah1-0
7Idaho1-0
7Memphis1-0
7Arizona State1-0
7Washington1-0
7Wisconsin1-0
7Army1-0
7Eastern Michigan1-0
7Syracuse1-0
7Navy1-0
7Boston College1-0
7Alabama1-0
7USC1-0
7Clemson1-0
7Penn State1-0
7Oklahoma1-0
7Michigan1-0
7Auburn1-0
7Georgia1-0
7Louisville1-0
7Miami1-0
7Kansas State1-0
7Maryland1-0
7Washington State1-0
7Illinois1-0
7Iowa1-0
7Michigan State1-0
7Missouri1-0
7California1-0
7Pittsburgh1-0
7Air Force1-0
7South Carolina1-0
7Notre Dame1-0
7Northwestern1-0
7Virginia1-0
7Boise State1-0
7Texas Tech1-0
7Kentucky1-0
7Mississippi State1-0
7Duke1-0
7Old Dominion1-0
7Marshall1-0
7North Texas1-0
7Western Kentucky1-0
7Louisiana Tech1-0
7SMU1-0
7Kansas1-0
7Ohio1-0
7Louisiana1-0
7Texas State1-0
7Ole Miss1-0
7New Mexico1-0
7Nebraska1-0
7TCU1-0
7Iowa State1-0
7Vanderbilt1-0
7Tulane1-0
7Oregon1-0
7San Diego State1-0
7Fresno State1-0
7Arizona1-0
7Virginia Tech1-0
7UCLA1-0
7Tennessee1-0
81San Jose State1-1
82BYU1-1
83Oregon State1-1
84Rice0-1
84Indiana0-1
84Tulsa0-1
84Florida Intl0-1
84Buffalo0-1
84Georgia State0-1
84Louisiana Monroe0-1
84New Mexico State0-1
84Rutgers0-1
84Utah State0-1
84Charlotte0-1
84Florida Atlantic0-1
84Northern Illinois0-1
84Florida State0-1
84Western Michigan0-1
84Kent State0-1
84Akron0-1
84UTEP0-1
84Florida0-1
84Georgia Southern0-1
84Appalachian State0-1
84Purdue0-1
84Texas0-1
84Ball State0-1
84Wyoming0-1
84Bowling Green0-1
84North Carolina0-1
84NC State0-1
84Temple0-1
84Nevada0-1
84Troy0-1
84Southern Mississippi0-1
84East Carolina0-1
84Miami (OH)0-1
84Baylor0-1
84South Alabama0-1
84Arkansas State0-1
84Middle Tennessee0-1
84UNLV0-1
84West Virginia0-1
84Texas A&M0-1
84Georgia Tech0-1
126UMass0-2

2017-08-30

Red Cardboard's Mostly Reds Cardboard Draft, Part 3

(Part 1)
(Part 2)

I took a little break there, but I'm back and I've got to finish this prize package.

2015 Topps Gypsy Queen
#11 Hanley Ramirez
#38 Matt Kemp
#94 Evan Longoria
#179 James Shields
#286 Ken Giles
2012 Topps Gypsy Queen - Mini #283 Mike Leake
2015 Topps Gypsy Queen - Mini #288 Wilin Rosario
2013 Panini Cooperstown - Colgan's Chip Disks #161 George Wright
I've seen these disks before, but I still somehow thought that might have been a legitimately vintage card/disk. Also, how's this for timing: I got the Mike Leake card posted on the day he was sent off to Seattle. He played for the Cardinals for all of 2016 and, obviously, 2017 up to this point.

2013 Topps - Blue Border Parallel #161 Bronson Arroyo
2015 Panini Diamond Kings
#15 Billy Butler
#66 Jacoby Ellsbury
#99 Matt Shoemaker
#130 Thurman Munson
#192 Chris Bassitt
I've been a fan of Diamond Kings since the 80s, so it was a no-brainer to choose these cards in the draft. I especially enjoy the old photo of Thurman Munson. I also think his card also looks best because they didn't have to cover over nearly as many logos due to his backwards cap and chest protector.











2017-07-03

Red Cardboard's Mostly Reds Cardboard Draft, Part 2

(Part 1)

Today's cards have a lot fewer Cardinals, but I did manage one per scan.

2004 Donruss Elite Extra Edition #88 Ken Griffey, Jr.
2005 Donruss Diamond Kings - Framed Red #75 Danny Graves
2006 Topps Turkey Red - Red Parallel #355 Adam Dunn
2006 Topps Turkey Red - Red Parallel #566 Brandon Phillips
2006 Topps Turkey Red - White Parallel #355 Adam Dunn
2010 Topps 206 #233 Frank Chance
2011 Topps Update - Diamond Anniversary #US96 Ryan Hanigan
2012 Topps - Blue Border Parallel #268 Miguel Cairo
2012 Topps - Gold Sparkle #41 Devin Mesoraco
I really like Turkey Red, but I wasn't collecting when it first began, so I'm always trying to fill in gaps, and I found I actually owned no cards from the 2006 set. Also, the Cardinal I mentioned in this scan is Miguel Cairo, who was picked up by the team in August for both of his stints. Once was off waivers in 2001 and once was as a free agent after being released in 2007, so essentially the same situation. According to Baseball Reference, he's played every position except Pitcher, Catcher, and Center Field. This seems to be the first Miguel Cairo card I've ever posted.

2005 Bowman Heritage - Mini #47 Felipe Lopez
2014 Topps Mini #505 Homer Bailey
2014 Topps Mini #581 Tony Cingrani
2012 Topps Mini #135 Johnny Cueto
It's tough to tell from the scan since I didn't leave any frame of reference, but these are indeed all minis. Felipe Lopez is the Cardinal here, another guy who played for the team twice, and was picked up the first time after being released. I've only got 2 cards from the base set of Bowman Heritage, and this is my first mini.













2017-07-01

Red Cardboard's Mostly Reds Cardboard Draft, Part 1

A long, long time ago, Red Cardboard held a draft, and I received my cards, looked through them, and put them in my "to post" pile. I'm going to have to implement a queue rather than a pile, I think, or else some stuff's just going to never get posted.

As a Reds fan, most of the prizes offered were Reds, but I managed to find the former/future Cardinals in disguise, along with cards from a few sets I just like. Here are the first few cards from the results.

1970 Topps Super #31 Vada Pinson
1975 Topps #623 Rookie Infielders (Phil Garner, Keith Hernandez, Bob Sheldon, Tom Veryzer)
1977 Topps #23 Dan Driessen
1993 Denny's #22 Joe Oliver
1996 Metal Universe #149 Barry Larkin
1997 Bowman - International #76 Brett Tomko
1999 Fleer Ultra - Gold Medallion #10G Brett Tomko
1999 Fleer Ultra - Gold Medallion #146G Dmitri Young
2003 Upper Deck Victory #29 Adam Dunn

I envisioned this looking a bit more like a collage and a bit less like a poorly played round of Tetris, but what can I say? That Vada Pinson really threw off everyone else. It's got some markings on it, but it's my first card from 1970 Topps Super. Since I keep the bulk of my cards in standard sized boxes, I now even more urgently need to implement some sort of plan for oversized items, much like a library does.

Two other nice vintage cards are Keith Hernandez in his pre-mustache days, and a rough looking Dan Driessen. All 3 of the oldest cards features guys who made at least a stop with the Cardinals, along with Dmitri Young and Brett Tomko. For some reason I always think Joe Oliver was a Cardinal too, but he wasn't, and I can't figure out who I must be confusing him with.

There are plenty more, but as usual, the blogger label limit tells me when I've had enough for one day.






2017-06-26

eBay Wins #257

There's still a whole lot of 1990 cards left, and here's the smallest stack out on my table, 60 cards from Topps Traded, cut down to just the Cardinals.

1990 Topps Traded
#15T Tom Brunansky
#39T Keith Hernandez
#90T Tony Pena
#117T Bryn Smith
#122T Bob Tewksbury
#124T John Tudor
When I arranged these by number, I figured that the set was arranged by team, but then I saw Cleveland's Keith Hernandez splitting up Boston's Tom Brunansky and Tony Pena. It's alphabetical order by last name, and I just happened to get some Cardinals all between S and T. Keith Hernandez is a player I'd really like to get an autograph from, but with him having a solid job in the Mets booth, he doesn't seem to get back to St. Louis for appearances.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought5302
Total Spent$65.39
Per Card1.233 cents
Change-0.003 cents

2017-06-22

A Season Starting PWE, Part II

Way back in March, Stealing Home sent out some PWEs to celebrate the start of the season. I saw a few others post theirs at the time, but I'm just now getting to mine.

Part I

This isn't one of my giant 40-part series posts, since, after all, it was just a PWE. Today I have the vertical cards, just because that's a nice way to split up the scan.

2014 Topps #157 Matt Adams
2015 Topps #261 Lance Lynn
2015 Topps #286 Trevor Rosenthal
2016 Topps #46 Jhonny Peralta
2016 Topps #106 Jordan Walden
2016 Topps Chrome #132 Stephen Piscotty
2016 Gypsy Queen #215 Matt Adams
2017 Topps #99 Michael Wacha
The danger of waiting too long to post some cards of current players is that if your team hits a swoon, they might not all be there anymore. Matt Adams went to Atlanta when Freddie Freeman got hurt, and Jhonny Peralta was just released. Jordan Walden has been a free agent since November, so he wasn't lost specifically during this season. That shiny chrome Piscotty saves the post, though.



2017-06-20

A Season Starting PWE, Part I

Way back in March, Stealing Home sent out some PWEs to celebrate the start of the season. I saw a few others post theirs at the time, but I'm just now getting to mine.

As usual, I like to tag every Cardinal player and card set, and I just barely ran out of space, so even this PWE is getting split into 2 posts. So, today, let's see the horizontal cards.

2015 Topps #60 Michael Wacha
2016 Stadium Club #37 Yadier Molina
2017 Topps #234 Luke Weaver
I really need to get more of that Stadium Club set. I like it, even if it does look a lot like some mid 90s Fleer sets. The cards flanking that one are an interesting pair, as there's currently talk of demoting Wacha and/or bringing up Weaver to try to save this season.

2017-06-18

eBay Wins #256

Today's eBay cards are from 1990 Upper Deck. I've given up on scanning every single card, so I just picked out the Cardinals, and enough other stars to round out the scans.

1990 Upper Deck
#16 Pirates Checklist (Bobby Bonilla)
#230 Mike Gallego
#334 Rickey Henderson
#342 Jack Clark
#393 Lee Smith
#397 Terry Kennedy
Can you pick which one didn't play for the Cardinals? You probably can, it's Rickey Henderson. The Cardinals were not among his 9 teams.

1990 Upper Deck
#402 Rich Gedman
#445 Fernando Valenzuela
#584 Les Lancaster
#659 Dan Quisenberry
#689 Todd Burns
#727 Scott Hemond
Dan Quisenberry is the only uniformed Cardinal in the big stack, even though he actually spent 1990 playing for San Francisco, his final year.

The size of that stack that made me give up scanning every card was 135, all out of the penny box, for a total of $1.35.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought5242
Total Spent$64.79
Per Card1.236 cents
Change-0.006 cents

2017-06-15

Zistle Trade #31

With this trade post, I'm all caught up with Zistle, because I've been extremely inactive there for the last few months.

1992 Fleer #596 Todd Zeile
1997 SkyBox Metal Universe #230 Ron Gant
1997 SkyBox Metal Universe #231 Brian Jordan
1997 SkyBox Metal Universe #232 Ray Lankford
1997 SkyBox Metal Universe #234 Tom Pagnozzi
1997 SkyBox Metal Universe #235 Todd Stottlemyre
1998 Fleer Ultra Main Set #295 Todd Zeile
I liked the sparkly set that was 1997 Metal Universe, and bought several packs when it was new. Before this trade I only had one uniformed Cardinal, John Mabry, which came in a prize package. Now I've got 6 with the addition of these 5, leaving me Alan Benes,  Andy Benes, and Dennis Eckersley to complete the team set. I also picked up 2 Todd Zeiles, one featuring his time with the Marlins, where he arrived with a much higher-profile star, Mike Piazza. Piazza of course was quickly sent to the Mets, and Zeile would go to the Rangers at the trade deadline, and the following season, rejoin Piazza on the Mets. I guess I never realized before they played together for both of those teams and Los Angeles.