2021-10-24

2021 World Series Projection, October 24

Houston over Atlanta

League Championship Series
BOS 2-4 HOU
LAD 2-4 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

TeamStrengthWin
HOU0.624958.71
ATL0.586641.29

Despite what the numbers said, it really didn't feel like anyone was actually going to beat LA. But Atlanta did it in 6 games, and will face Houston in the World Series. A Houston World Series appearance of course brings up the oddity of a team that has switched leagues, and the fact that they have a playoff history against Atlanta. They played each other in the NLDS more times than they didn't between 1997 and 2005, 5 out of the 9 seasons.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 16: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 17: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 18: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 19: Atlanta over Boston
Oct 20: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 21: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 22: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 23: Houston over Atlanta

2021-10-23

2021 World Series Projection, October 23

Houston over Atlanta

League Championship Series
BOS 2-4 HOU
LAD 2-3 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.676435.4822.07
HOU0.6249100.0051.29
ATL0.586664.5226.64

With a 5-0 win, Houston is the first team into the World Series. I've had them favored to win the AL since October 9, once they were up 2-0 in the NLDS against Chicago and the slightly stronger Tampa Bay was tied with Boston 1-1.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 16: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 17: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 18: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 19: Atlanta over Boston
Oct 20: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 21: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 22: Houston over Atlanta

2021-10-22

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 7, Thursday

Buffalo over Arizona

Cleveland beat Denver on Thursday night, but a single game between two 3-3 teams isn't going to move the needle much, unless it's a blowout, so Buffalo remains on top of the AFC.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BUF4-20.64190.895.068.242.225.614.5
ARI6-00.62474.298.277.645.025.514.3
BAL5-10.58055.292.165.335.518.59.4
DAL5-10.58491.794.958.030.515.58.1
LAR5-10.58424.492.256.929.515.17.9
TB5-10.57663.488.353.027.213.66.9
CIN4-20.57229.777.048.325.413.06.5
NO3-20.56921.761.332.916.28.04.0
TEN4-20.50878.784.345.020.28.93.9
GB5-10.51570.082.641.618.37.93.6
LV4-20.50632.564.834.115.36.72.9
LAC4-20.49639.167.134.114.96.42.7
CLE4-30.51511.450.125.311.55.22.3
CAR3-30.54413.540.920.19.34.42.1
MIN3-30.51922.446.521.79.54.21.9
KC3-30.51315.739.819.58.84.01.7
DEN3-40.53012.731.815.97.43.51.6
IND2-40.51617.632.715.87.23.31.4
NE2-40.4967.425.211.65.12.20.9
PIT3-30.4683.828.512.75.22.10.8
SF2-30.4960.822.39.84.01.70.7
PHI2-40.4725.017.77.22.81.10.5
SEA2-40.4830.615.56.62.61.10.5
CHI3-30.4407.620.67.92.81.00.4
ATL2-30.4301.58.73.21.10.40.2
WAS2-40.4222.88.33.01.00.40.1
NYJ1-40.3951.34.41.60.50.20.1
JAC1-50.4061.82.91.10.40.10.0
HOU1-50.3701.92.60.90.30.10.0
NYG1-50.3970.41.80.60.20.10.0
MIA1-50.3750.51.70.60.20.10.0
DET0-60.3940.00.30.10.00.00.0

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona

2021 World Series Projection, October 22

Houston over Atlanta

League Championship Series
BOS 2-3 HOU
LAD 2-3 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.676435.4823.01
HOU0.624982.2942.21
ATL0.586664.5228.62
BOS0.547617.716.16

LA kept the series alive, but still trails 3-2 and has about a 1 in 3 chance of coming back all the way. The ALCS resumes today, with Boston in the same position as LA, but with only about a 1 in 6 chance.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 16: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 17: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 18: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 19: Atlanta over Boston
Oct 20: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 21: Houston over Atlanta

2021-10-21

2021 World Series Projection, October 21

Houston over Atlanta

League Championship Series
BOS 2-3 HOU
LAD 1-3 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.676421.1413.71
HOU0.624982.2944.68
ATL0.586678.8634.98
BOS0.547617.716.63

Houston and Atlanta both won, so each team is 1 win from making the World Series.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 16: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 17: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 18: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 19: Atlanta over Boston
Oct 20: Houston over Atlanta

2021-10-20

2021 World Series Projection, October 20

Houston over Atlanta

League Championship Series
BOS 2-2 HOU
LAD 1-2 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.676446.7731.77
HOU0.624961.7830.23
ATL0.586653.2325.50
BOS0.547638.2212.50

Houston tied the ALCS at 2 games each, and LA won their first NLCS game. LA was favored when they were down 1-0, but down 2-1, they are running out of time to catch up, so Atlanta is slightly favored to win.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 16: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 17: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 18: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 19: Atlanta over Boston

2021-10-19

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 6, Final

Buffalo over Arizona

I didn't see a Buffalo loss coming, especially to Tennessee, a team with a strength barely better than .500. They're still in good position, though, with roughly the same chance to make the Super Bowl as Arizona in the NFC, and the highest chances of winning of any team.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BUF4-20.64290.894.968.242.125.514.5
ARI6-00.62474.298.277.645.025.514.3
BAL5-10.58057.292.165.535.618.69.4
DAL5-10.58491.894.957.930.515.58.0
LAR5-10.58424.492.256.929.515.17.9
TB5-10.57663.488.353.127.213.66.9
CIN4-20.57230.977.048.225.413.06.5
NO3-20.56921.761.332.916.28.04.0
TEN4-20.50878.784.345.020.28.93.9
GB5-10.51570.182.641.618.38.03.6
LV4-20.50630.564.834.015.26.72.9
LAC4-20.49636.366.933.814.76.42.7
DEN3-30.53618.746.424.011.45.42.5
CAR3-30.54413.541.020.19.34.42.1
MIN3-30.51922.346.521.79.54.21.9
KC3-30.51314.539.619.48.73.91.7
CLE3-30.5097.835.917.67.93.51.5
IND2-40.51617.632.715.87.13.21.4
NE2-40.4967.425.311.65.12.20.9
PIT3-30.4684.028.612.85.22.10.8
SF2-30.4960.822.39.84.01.70.7
PHI2-40.4725.017.67.22.81.10.5
SEA2-40.4830.615.56.62.61.10.5
CHI3-30.4407.520.67.92.81.00.4
ATL2-30.4301.58.73.21.10.40.2
WAS2-40.4222.88.33.01.00.40.1
NYJ1-40.3951.34.41.60.50.20.1
JAC1-50.4061.82.91.10.40.10.0
HOU1-50.3701.92.60.90.30.10.0
NYG1-50.3970.41.80.60.20.10.0
MIA1-50.3750.51.70.60.20.10.0
DET0-60.3940.00.30.10.00.00.0

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona

2021 World Series Projection, October 19

Atlanta over Boston

League Championship Series
BOS 2-1 HOU
LAD 0-2 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.676432.9523.26
HOU0.624943.9622.78
ATL0.586667.0534.19
BOS0.547656.0419.77

After remaining somewhat stable, the projection changes for the second time in 2 days, as Boston takes a 2-1 lead and is now favored to win the AL for the first time. They're the weakest team left, though, so they'll have to actually be leading the World Series before they'd be favored to be the champs.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 16: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 17: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 18: Houston over Atlanta

2021-10-18

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 6, Sunday

Buffalo over Arizona

Arizona won again, and Buffalo doesn't play until Monday, so both held their ground on top of their conferences. Detroit is now the only winless team, and pretty soon I'm going to have to add some decimal places if I want to see what their chances are.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BUF4-10.63393.296.874.045.327.015.1
ARI6-00.62474.198.277.645.025.514.3
BAL5-10.58057.292.264.335.118.39.2
DAL5-10.58491.794.957.930.515.58.1
LAR5-10.58424.492.256.929.515.17.9
TB5-10.57663.488.353.127.213.67.0
CIN4-20.57230.977.248.025.212.96.4
NO3-20.56921.761.533.016.28.04.1
GB5-10.51570.182.641.618.37.93.6
TEN3-20.50369.474.537.316.57.23.1
LV4-20.50630.565.134.015.26.72.9
LAC4-20.49636.367.133.814.76.42.7
DEN3-30.53618.746.724.211.45.42.5
CAR3-30.54413.541.120.19.34.42.1
MIN3-30.51922.346.421.69.44.21.9
KC3-30.51314.540.019.68.84.01.7
IND2-40.51624.836.517.78.03.61.6
CLE3-30.5097.836.217.77.93.61.5
NE2-40.4965.525.511.85.12.30.9
PIT3-30.4684.128.812.95.22.10.8
SF2-30.4960.822.39.74.01.70.7
PHI2-40.4725.017.67.22.81.10.5
SEA2-40.4830.615.56.62.61.10.5
CHI3-30.4407.520.57.82.81.00.4
ATL2-30.4301.58.73.21.10.40.2
WAS2-40.4222.88.33.01.00.40.1
NYJ1-40.3950.94.41.60.50.20.1
JAC1-50.4063.03.91.40.50.20.1
HOU1-50.3702.93.41.20.40.10.0
NYG1-50.3970.41.70.60.20.10.0
MIA1-50.3750.41.70.60.20.10.0
DET0-60.3940.00.30.10.00.00.0

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona

2021 World Series Projection, October 18

Houston over Atlanta

League Championship Series
BOS 1-1 HOU
LAD 0-2 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.676432.9522.24
HOU0.624964.6033.48
ATL0.586667.0531.80
BOS0.547635.4012.48

Atlanta has a 2-game lead in the NLCS, and has finally wrested the leader position of the NL away from the West Division. Atlanta has had a walk-off win in both games, so they'll have to do something a little different when the series moves to LA and they don't bat last.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 16: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 17: Los Angeles over Houston

2021-10-17

2021 World Series Projection, October 17

Los Angeles over Houston

League Championship Series
BOS 1-1 HOU
LAD 0-1 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.676453.5336.13
HOU0.624964.6030.70
ATL0.586646.4722.04
BOS0.547635.4011.13

Boston tied up the ALCS, and Atlanta struck first in the NLCS. Both of those teams are still not favored to win the series, more notably Atlanta, despite being up 1-0.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 16: Los Angeles over Houston

2021-10-16

2021 World Series Projection, October 16

Los Angeles over Houston

League Championship Series
BOS 0-1 HOU
LAD 0-0 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.676470.1845.85
HOU0.624979.0834.83
ATL0.586629.8213.39
BOS0.547620.925.93

Houston won the first game of the ALCS, and the NLCS begins today. So far the projection has been pretty stable, and Houston will remain the AL favorite after game 2, by a large margin if the series moves to 2-0, and a bit smaller if Boston ties it up. LA starts off even higher than Houston did (70% vs 66% at the start of the LCS), and may also remain favored even down 0-1.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston

2021-10-15

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 6, Thursday

Buffalo over Arizona

I felt ready to write off Tampa Bay's chances to repeat after their loss to LA in Week 3, but they've now climbed up to be the #2 most likely team to make the Super Bowl in the NFC. Philadelphia's loss put them down to the 5th worst team in the NFC, although with 7 of 16 making the playoffs that's not totally out of reach for them yet, especially with 2 division rivals (Washington and New York) worse than them.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BUF4-10.63390.596.575.346.328.116.3
ARI5-00.59471.794.871.139.821.911.7
TB5-10.57658.387.055.529.715.58.0
DAL4-10.57585.089.855.329.515.48.0
LAC4-10.54453.284.252.626.612.96.3
LAR4-10.54223.380.246.622.711.05.3
BAL4-10.53344.479.947.623.311.05.2
DEN3-20.56229.166.038.219.710.05.0
NO3-20.56919.860.434.017.69.04.6
CLE3-20.54726.160.633.616.88.24.0
CAR3-20.55920.756.531.115.77.94.0
CIN3-20.52925.061.634.016.37.73.6
TEN3-20.50374.877.939.717.87.93.5
GB4-10.49657.169.234.615.16.62.9
LV3-20.48712.147.423.09.94.31.8
NE2-30.5097.935.817.68.03.71.7
MIN2-30.50819.132.515.56.93.11.4
CHI3-20.46223.537.116.26.52.61.1
KC2-30.4875.625.911.95.12.21.0
SF2-30.4962.123.110.64.62.00.9
SEA2-30.4892.823.110.54.52.00.8
PIT2-30.4624.521.39.43.81.60.6
IND1-40.46312.318.27.93.21.30.5
PHI2-40.4725.714.86.32.61.10.5
WAS2-30.4507.816.96.92.71.10.4
HOU1-40.41110.412.44.81.70.60.2
ATL2-30.4301.27.83.11.10.40.2
NYG1-40.4371.65.52.20.80.30.1
NYJ1-40.3950.84.61.70.60.20.1
MIA1-40.3870.74.51.60.50.20.1
JAC0-50.4072.53.21.20.40.10.1
DET0-50.4300.41.10.40.20.10.0

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona

2021 World Series Projection, October 15

Los Angeles over Houston

League Championship Series
BOS 0-0 HOU
LAD 0-0 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

TeamStrengthWSWin
LAD0.676470.1847.13
HOU0.624966.9029.46
ATL0.586629.8214.02
BOS0.547633.109.39

LA finished off San Francisco, on a bit of a controversial call to end the game. But, such things are usually forgotten when they happen in the early rounds of the playoffs. LA is favored to beat Houston, and both are overwhelming favorites to win their respective LCS.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston

2021-10-13

2021 World Series Projection, October 13

Los Angeles over Houston

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 2-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
LAD0.676454.1838.0225.53
SF 0.638745.8228.3416.64
HOU0.6249100.0066.9031.69
ATL0.5866100.0033.6415.82
BOS0.5476100.0033.1010.32

Atlanta and Houston ended their series and moved on, and Los Angeles tied San Francisco 2-2 with a deciding game 5 to come. Even though they haven't advanced yet, Los Angeles is slightly more likely to make the World Series than Atlanta, and retakes the league lead from San Francisco.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston

2021-10-12

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 5, Final

Buffalo over Arizona

Indianapolis appeared to have the game locked up, but Baltimore came all the way back to tie it in regulation and win in overtime. Baltimore is now 4-1, but not quite as strong of a 4-1 as LA or Buffalo in the AFC.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BUF4-10.63390.696.575.446.328.216.4
ARI5-00.59471.894.872.040.522.412.0
DAL4-10.57582.288.855.629.815.68.1
TB4-10.56549.978.447.524.812.76.5
LAC4-10.54453.284.152.526.512.86.3
LAR4-10.54223.380.146.923.011.25.4
BAL4-10.53344.479.947.623.311.05.3
DEN3-20.56229.165.938.119.69.95.0
NO3-20.56923.660.534.517.99.34.7
CAR3-20.55924.856.831.616.08.14.1
CLE3-20.54726.160.633.716.88.24.1
CIN3-20.52925.061.734.016.37.73.6
TEN3-20.50374.777.839.717.87.93.5
GB4-10.49657.069.135.015.46.73.0
LV3-20.48712.147.322.99.94.31.8
NE2-30.5097.935.917.78.03.71.7
MIN2-30.50819.032.515.67.03.21.4
CHI3-20.46223.637.216.46.62.71.1
KC2-30.4875.726.012.05.12.21.0
SF2-30.4962.123.310.84.72.10.9
PHI2-30.4839.024.511.04.72.00.9
SEA2-30.4892.823.010.64.62.00.9
PIT2-30.4624.521.39.43.81.60.6
IND1-40.46312.418.48.03.21.30.5
WAS2-30.4507.316.56.92.71.10.4
HOU1-40.41110.412.44.81.70.60.2
ATL2-30.4301.77.93.11.20.40.2
NYG1-40.4371.55.42.10.80.30.1
NYJ1-40.3950.84.71.70.60.20.1
MIA1-40.3870.74.51.60.50.20.1
JAC0-50.4072.53.21.20.40.10.1
DET0-50.4300.41.10.40.20.10.0

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona

2021 World Series Projection, October 12

San Francisco over Houston

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-2 HOU
LAD 1-2 SF
ATL 2-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
LAD0.676429.3520.7014.07
SF 0.638770.6543.9626.18
HOU0.624977.1551.6125.43
CWS0.604122.8514.266.36
ATL0.586675.7727.0612.96
MIL0.579124.238.283.83
BOS0.5476100.0034.1211.18

Atlanta went up 2-1 on Milwaukee, Boston eliminated Tampa, San Francisco took back the lead 2-1 against LA... and the weather in Chicago robbed us of a 4-game day. Despite their rainout, Houston jumped back above 50% likely to make the World Series, because as mentioned before, they will be much more heavily favored against Boston than they would have been against Tampa Bay.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston

2021-10-11

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 5, Sunday

Buffalo over Arizona

Buffalo and Arizona won again, and are both now well over 90% likely to make the playoffs, while Jacksonville and Detroit compete to be the sorriest teams of the year, both at 0-5. Jacksonville has their 20-loss streak and a head coach on the hot seat, while Detroit has, well, their whole history, plus 2 last-second losses in 3 weeks, both on long field goals (66-yard and 54-yard) improbable enough that prior to the kick, Detroit was 85% and 74% likely to win the respective games.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BUF4-10.63390.696.676.146.928.616.6
ARI5-00.59471.694.771.940.522.412.0
DAL4-10.57582.288.855.629.815.68.1
TB4-10.56549.878.347.424.812.76.5
LAC4-10.54453.484.453.227.013.16.4
LAR4-10.54223.580.247.023.111.35.5
DEN3-20.56229.066.138.519.910.15.1
NO3-20.56923.760.534.417.99.34.7
CLE3-20.54729.761.334.317.18.44.2
BAL3-10.52336.569.939.418.88.84.1
CAR3-20.55924.856.831.516.08.14.1
CIN3-20.52928.562.334.716.77.93.7
TEN3-20.50370.875.538.917.57.83.5
GB4-10.49657.069.235.115.46.73.0
LV3-20.48712.047.623.210.14.41.9
NE2-30.5097.936.218.08.23.81.7
MIN2-30.50819.032.615.67.03.21.4
CHI3-20.46223.637.316.56.72.71.1
KC2-30.4875.726.112.15.22.31.0
IND1-30.47317.628.112.85.32.20.9
SF2-30.4962.123.110.74.72.10.9
PHI2-30.4839.024.511.04.72.00.9
SEA2-30.4892.823.010.64.62.00.9
PIT2-30.4625.421.99.84.01.60.7
WAS2-30.4517.316.56.92.71.10.4
HOU1-40.4119.411.64.51.60.60.2
ATL2-30.4301.77.93.11.20.40.2
NYG1-40.4371.55.42.10.80.30.1
NYJ1-40.3950.84.81.70.60.20.1
MIA1-40.3870.74.71.60.50.20.1
JAC0-50.4072.23.01.10.40.10.1
DET0-50.4300.41.10.40.20.10.0

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona

2021 World Series Projection, October 11

Los Angeles over Houston

Division Series
BOS 2-1 TB
CWS 1-2 HOU
LAD 1-1 SF
ATL 1-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
LAD0.676456.2539.8726.35
SF 0.638743.7527.4015.76
TB 0.626633.7517.378.29
HOU0.624977.1547.1122.31
CWS0.604122.8512.915.51
ATL0.586651.1617.127.84
MIL0.579148.8415.616.88
BOS0.547666.2522.617.05

This one's posting a little late too. I predict... a rainout tonight. Houston lost a game but barely lost any ground for winning the AL, because Boston, the weakest remaining team, is now up 2-1 on Tampa Bay, significantly weakening Houston's average next opponent. 

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston

2021-10-10

2021 World Series Projection, October 10

Los Angeles over Houston

Division Series
BOS 1-1 TB
CWS 0-2 HOU
LAD 1-1 SF
ATL 1-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
LAD0.676456.2539.8725.62
SF 0.638743.7527.4015.20
TB 0.626662.0331.5815.07
HOU0.624989.0850.0423.70
CWS0.604110.925.622.40
ATL0.586651.1617.127.47
MIL0.579148.8415.616.56
BOS0.547637.9712.753.98

As I'm posting this over a day late and backdating it, I won't put any phony predictions up. Both NLDSs evened up at 1-1 on Saturday, making them effectively 3 game series with reversed homefield advantage. Which actually means that now in both series the stronger team by my numbers has the homefield advantage. Also, Los Angeles retakes the NL lead and is the projected World Series winner again.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston

2021-10-09

2021 World Series Projection, October 9

San Francisco over Houston

Division Series
BOS 1-1 TB
CWS 0-2 HOU
LAD 0-1 SF
ATL 0-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
LAD0.676437.7626.8717.26
SF 0.638762.2439.1621.73
TB 0.626662.0331.5815.52
HOU0.624989.0850.0424.41
CWS0.604110.925.622.48
ATL0.586632.4211.354.95
MIL0.579167.5822.629.50
BOS0.547637.9712.754.13

Houston extended their lead to 2-0 over Chicago, and it's not looking good for my second-choice team this year. That combined with Tampa losing to Boston to even that ALDS, makes Houston the AL favorite. We also had a change in the NL, as San Francisco - who is the weaker team on paper - won their first game to go up 1-0 on Los Angeles. Milwaukee also beat Atlanta, which is also an upset on paper despite their higher seed.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay

2021-10-08

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 5, Thursday

Buffalo over Arizona

Los Angeles beat Seattle on Thursday night, but Arizona has a better record, higher strength, and the head to head a tiebreaker for now, so they remain the head of the NFC West and the NFC as a whole.

One thing I don't like about this 17 game season is that we don't have a neat 1/4 and 3/4 point of the season anymore. (We usually didn't have 1/2 because of byes). We've had 65 of 272 games played, a bit under 24%.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BUF3-10.61085.791.264.437.821.912.6
ARI4-00.57558.489.265.136.119.810.4
DEN3-10.57840.075.749.126.814.37.7
CAR3-10.56244.073.145.624.412.96.6
LAR4-10.54229.780.950.525.813.16.4
CLE3-10.56437.571.644.723.612.26.4
DAL3-10.54465.375.544.523.011.75.8
LAC3-10.54233.070.442.421.310.55.3
CIN3-10.53531.367.439.819.79.64.8
TB3-10.52634.865.637.218.49.04.3
BAL3-10.52329.366.037.718.18.64.2
NO2-20.55119.651.929.615.47.94.0
LV3-10.50717.957.130.814.26.53.1
GB3-10.49155.764.332.714.96.73.0
SF2-20.5087.938.720.29.54.52.1
TEN2-20.47350.654.625.210.64.41.9
KC2-20.5129.035.218.18.43.91.9
MIN1-30.50420.629.914.76.83.21.4
NE1-30.5038.524.611.95.52.51.2
SEA2-30.4893.925.612.55.62.61.1
WAS2-20.46717.731.014.46.22.71.1
IND1-30.47322.828.913.15.52.31.0
CHI2-20.44321.329.712.85.22.10.8
PHI1-30.4798.316.97.83.51.50.7
NYG1-30.4768.617.07.93.51.50.7
HOU1-30.42017.920.37.92.91.10.4
PIT1-30.4461.910.04.31.70.70.3
JAC0-40.4328.79.83.91.50.60.2
MIA1-30.4193.09.23.61.30.50.2
ATL1-30.4251.66.62.71.10.40.2
NYJ1-30.4082.88.13.11.10.40.2
DET0-40.4382.44.21.70.70.30.1

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona

2021 World Series Projection, October 8

Los Angeles over Tampa Bay

Division Series
BOS 0-1 TB
CWS 0-1 HOU
LAD 0-0 SF
ATL 0-0 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
LAD0.676457.8040.9726.09
SF 0.638742.2026.4314.50
TB 0.626679.8141.2919.66
HOU0.624971.9838.2218.06
CWS0.604128.0213.555.78
ATL0.586651.4517.167.37
MIL0.579148.5515.456.39
BOS0.547620.196.942.16

Tampa and Houston won their opening games at home to go up 1-0. Today's possibly the last 4-game day of the year, with the other being next Monday if both ALDS go to 4 games. I'll be interested to see if the LA-San Francisco matchup lives up to the 200+ combined wins they've got this year.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay

2021-10-07

2021 World Series Projection, October 7

Los Angeles over Tampa Bay

Division Series
BOS 0-0 TB
CWS 0-0 HOU
LAD 0-0 SF
ATL 0-0 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

TeamStrengthLCSWSWin
LAD0.676457.8040.9726.61
SF 0.638742.2026.4314.87
TB 0.626664.9134.1316.25
HOU0.624954.1230.1414.24
CWS0.604145.8823.409.97
ATL0.586651.4517.167.62
MIL0.579148.5515.456.61
BOS0.547635.0912.343.84

Los Angeles beat St. Louis to move on to the NLDS, and becomes the overwhelming favorite to win the NL pennant and World Series. On one hand, I'd certainly have preferred to see St. Louis advance, but on the other hand, I fear what sort of reactionary change Rob Manfred would have made in response to the 2nd best teams in the league going out so early. Although, now that St. Louis has lost this wildcard game for the first time, and I've experienced being a fan of the team who was in and out of the playoffs in a blink, I can see why other people don't like it much. But it at least made the last month of the season fun, because otherwise everything would have been pretty locked up much earlier in the NL.

Both ALDS start today. I'll root for Tampa Bay over Boston, and Chicago over Houston. Tony La Russa was one of my favorite managers even before he came to St. Louis, so I'll root for him to needlessly enhance his Hall of Fame credentials.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay

2021-10-06

2021 World Series Projection, October 6

San Francisco over Tampa Bay

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-0 LAD

TeamStrengthLDSLCSWSWin
LAD0.676465.5837.9026.8617.45
SF 0.6387100.0052.1732.6718.38
TB 0.6266100.0064.9134.1317.18
HOU0.6249100.0054.1230.1415.05
CWS0.6041100.0045.8823.4010.60
ATL0.5866100.0051.4519.328.58
MIL0.5791100.0048.5517.487.47
BOS0.5476100.0035.0912.344.14
STL0.523234.429.933.681.15

Boston beat New York, and will move on to play Tampa Bay. This is the first time in the 2-wildcard era we've had essentially a 3 team playoff between division rivals in the AL. It has happened in the NL 3 times. In 2013, Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati to face St. Louis. In 2015, Chicago beat Pittsburgh to face St. Louis. And in 2017, Arizona beat Colorado to face Los Angeles.

Today we have the NL wildcard game, St. Louis at Los Angeles. It's no secret who I'm rooting for; let's see if the Cardinals can raise that 1.15% chance of winning the World Series just a little bit.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay

2021-10-05

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 4, Final

Buffalo over Arizona

Arizona is now the only undefeated team left. It feels early in the season to be down to just one, but we'll see how long until the final team falls and everyone can publish their canned stories about the 1972 Miami Dolphins. Buffalo remained on top in the AFC because Las Vegas lost on Monday night, and are now in a 3-way tie with Denver and LA for first in the division.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BUF3-10.61085.791.264.437.821.912.6
ARI4-00.57561.789.065.536.520.110.6
DEN3-10.57840.075.749.126.714.37.8
CAR3-10.56244.173.045.924.713.16.7
CLE3-10.56437.571.644.723.512.26.5
DAL3-10.54465.475.545.023.311.95.9
LAC3-10.54233.070.442.321.310.55.3
CIN3-10.53531.367.439.819.79.64.8
LAR3-10.52619.766.738.919.29.54.5
TB3-10.52634.965.237.518.79.24.4
BAL3-10.52329.466.337.918.28.64.2
NO2-20.55119.451.529.715.58.04.0
LV3-10.50717.957.130.814.26.53.1
GB3-10.49155.764.333.115.16.83.0
SEA2-20.50510.040.721.410.14.82.2
SF2-20.5088.638.920.49.74.62.1
TEN2-20.47350.954.925.310.64.52.0
KC2-20.5129.035.118.18.43.91.9
MIN1-30.50420.830.315.07.03.31.5
NE1-30.5038.524.611.95.52.51.2
WAS2-20.46717.530.814.46.32.71.1
IND1-30.47322.728.813.15.52.31.0
CHI2-20.44321.129.412.95.22.10.8
NYG1-30.4768.717.28.03.51.60.7
PHI1-30.4798.316.97.83.51.60.7
HOU1-30.42017.820.27.92.91.10.4
PIT1-30.4461.89.84.21.70.70.3
JAC0-40.4328.79.73.91.50.60.2
MIA1-30.4193.09.23.61.30.50.2
ATL1-30.4251.66.52.71.10.40.2
NYJ1-30.4082.88.13.11.10.40.2
DET0-40.4382.44.21.80.70.30.1

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona

2021 World Series Projection, October 5

San Francisco over Tampa Bay

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-0 BOS
STL 0-0 LAD

TeamStrengthLDSLCSWSWin
LAD0.676465.5837.9026.8617.45
SF 0.6387100.0052.1732.6718.38
TB 0.6266100.0066.4734.9517.59
HOU0.6249100.0054.1230.3015.13
CWS0.6041100.0045.8823.5410.66
ATL0.5866100.0051.4519.328.58
MIL0.5791100.0048.5517.487.47
BOS0.547651.9118.226.402.15
NYY0.528648.0915.324.811.44
STL0.523234.429.933.681.15

After taking 2020 off, I've decided to bring back my MLB playoff projections. It helps that they've gone back to a familiar format, because this software sure is brittle. I still dream of a single codebase that handles MLB, NFL, NHL, and maybe even NBA, but I'm not there yet. I've listed the teams by their strength, which is really just a measure of runs scored vs runs allowed for the full regular season. Runs are, after all, the way you win a baseball game. Despite being the strongest team, LA is stuck in the wildcard game, thanks to a worse record than San Francisco. If they advance, they'll be favored in that series, but for now, San Francisco is the most likely NL Champion. In the AL, Tampa is the #1 seed and the strongest team, so they've got the clearest shot of any team at the moment, nearly 35% likely to advance to the World Series.

The first game to be played will be the AL Wildcard game, hosted by Boston due to a head-to-head tiebreaker. I don't tend to root for either of these teams, so I'll go with my favorite tiebreaker, former Cardinals. It appears the only one on either active roster is Adam Ottavino, so I'll be rooting for Boston. Luke Voit is another player I like, but he's injured and apparently out for the playoffs.