2017-11-17

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville

The Rams took over the NFC again, and I'm assuming it's because Tennessee was weakened by their loss to Pittsburgh Thursday night, favoring LA more in that game than before. By virtue of getting to play early this week, Pittsburgh is our first team to 99% chance of making the playoffs. Also, Cleveland has joined San Francisco in being eliminated from their division, but is still not quite mathematically out of the playoffs.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
JAC6-30.68387.5298.8484.9751.8530.8616.43
LAR7-20.70177.6193.6074.6043.5824.8814.54
PHI8-10.66694.7598.4587.3447.8424.7813.53
PIT8-20.63897.6099.7487.8049.2025.7312.42
NO7-20.67374.7593.2271.0838.4120.3611.28
NE7-20.60588.3998.0179.4940.4819.358.67
MIN7-20.60874.1086.8859.1426.6811.945.78
KC6-30.58091.4195.1666.2430.0313.635.76
SEA6-30.59822.2956.1829.4712.875.722.71
CAR7-30.57621.3866.4833.5713.835.792.62
BAL4-50.5442.3443.9219.778.093.431.33
DET5-40.56220.7938.8717.776.992.831.23
BUF5-40.47410.8753.8522.357.692.730.88
DAL5-40.5535.1922.039.563.721.480.64
TEN6-40.44011.6656.9120.046.362.090.62
ATL5-40.5403.8320.839.093.401.320.55
GB5-40.4945.0216.936.342.080.710.27
OAK4-50.4645.2016.756.552.170.750.24
HOU3-60.4910.809.613.681.350.510.17
LAC3-60.4952.468.703.571.290.480.17
NYJ4-60.4540.064.991.790.570.200.06
WAS4-50.4530.065.321.710.510.160.05
CIN3-60.4190.053.020.960.280.090.02
DEN3-60.3610.943.991.140.280.070.02
MIA4-50.3250.685.801.490.320.070.02
TB3-60.4250.040.590.170.050.010.00
IND3-70.3180.020.710.160.040.010.00
ARI4-50.3610.100.420.110.020.010.00
CHI3-60.3980.090.200.060.010.000.00
SF1-90.333------
NYG1-80.3330.000.000.000.000.00-
CLE0-90.318-0.000.000.000.00-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)


First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia

2017-11-14

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 10, Final

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

Well, I wasn't expecting that to happen. Philadelphia now just barely edges out LA for the NFC. Both teams lost a little ground due to the NFC's Carolina winning over the AFC's Miami on Monday night, strengthening the NFC pool. I suspect that there are more situations where Carolina plays LA than where they play Philadelphia, affecting LA's chances more.

I also ran fewer simulations than usual today due to time constraints, so it's also possible the teams are even closer and more simulations would have pushed LA higher. But for now, this is what we've got to work with.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
JAC6-30.68379.1898.6284.0452.5232.2417.17
LAR7-20.70177.0993.2974.1643.3124.7314.75
PHI8-10.66694.7598.4587.3847.8824.8113.85
NO7-20.67374.7593.2171.1538.4820.4011.55
NE7-20.60588.7897.6880.7842.5220.969.40
PIT7-20.59494.3198.0577.3539.2118.868.24
KC6-30.57991.4094.6666.4631.4414.716.22
MIN7-20.60873.9586.8159.1826.7111.965.94
SEA6-30.59822.8156.1529.5012.905.742.79
CAR7-30.57621.3966.3933.5813.845.802.69
TEN6-30.48420.1572.7432.9212.224.621.54
BAL4-50.5445.5142.3719.838.463.671.42
DET5-40.56220.7238.8417.777.002.831.27
BUF5-40.47410.5149.7321.427.752.830.92
DAL5-40.5535.1921.959.543.711.480.65
ATL5-40.5403.8320.809.093.411.320.57
GB5-40.4945.2517.636.612.180.750.29
OAK4-50.4645.2114.675.882.050.740.23
HOU3-60.4910.668.263.291.260.490.16
LAC3-60.4952.467.613.181.200.460.16
WAS4-50.4530.065.311.710.510.160.05
NYJ4-60.4540.063.991.480.500.180.05
CIN3-60.4190.192.860.950.300.090.03
DEN3-60.3610.943.320.970.250.070.02
MIA4-50.3250.644.911.310.300.070.01
TB3-60.4250.040.590.170.050.010.00
IND3-70.3190.010.550.130.030.010.00
ARI4-50.3610.100.390.100.020.010.00
CHI3-60.3980.090.200.060.010.000.00
CLE0-90.3180.000.000.000.000.000.00
SF1-90.333------
NYG1-80.3330.000.000.000.000.00-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville

2017-11-13

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 10, Sunday

Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville

With no game for Philadelphia this week, LA caught them in the NFC projection, so here we are, back to the same matchup projected as Week 1. It seems odd that Jacksonville's odds are so high when they are 6-3, but in the AFC there just aren't many strong teams, even the two that are 7-2. Also, I should point out that while Jacksonville has the highest chance of winning the Superbowl, which is how this table is sorted, they are weaker than LA, so that's why the projection has the Rams winning. Jacksonville joined Philadelphia up over 98% likely to make the playoffs, but neither has quite crossed 99% yet.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
JAC6-30.68379.1698.5784.2352.7232.3717.23
LAR7-20.70077.0993.8375.0043.9525.1414.99
PHI8-10.66694.7598.6287.6048.3325.0613.99
NO7-20.67381.7594.3973.5639.9721.2212.01
NE7-20.60587.9597.1780.1042.1520.799.32
PIT7-20.59494.3098.0177.6339.4518.978.29
KC6-30.57991.1494.3766.2831.3814.696.21
MIN7-20.60874.6188.3261.5327.8512.486.20
SEA6-30.59822.8157.9630.6013.385.962.90
TEN6-30.48420.1771.8932.7912.184.611.54
BAL4-50.5445.5142.0319.748.423.661.42
DET5-40.56219.9841.0518.947.463.021.36
CAR6-30.52313.3250.8322.107.962.931.21
BUF5-40.47410.3047.0120.347.362.690.87
DAL5-40.5535.1923.5510.243.981.590.70
ATL5-40.5404.8823.9510.523.951.530.66
GB5-40.4945.3420.237.612.510.860.33
OAK4-50.4645.3814.715.942.070.740.24
HOU3-60.4910.668.003.201.220.470.16
LAC3-60.4952.557.353.091.160.450.15
WAS4-50.4530.065.841.890.560.170.06
NYJ4-60.4540.074.051.510.510.180.06
MIA4-40.3581.6710.423.190.820.220.05
CIN3-60.4190.192.740.920.280.090.03
DEN3-60.3610.933.170.940.240.070.02
TB3-60.4250.060.750.220.060.020.01
ARI4-50.3620.100.450.120.030.010.00
IND3-70.3190.010.530.130.030.010.00
CHI3-60.3980.080.230.070.020.000.00
CLE0-90.3190.000.000.000.000.000.00
SF1-90.333------
NYG1-80.3330.000.000.000.00--

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville

2017-11-12

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 11

Georgia lost big to Auburn, and fell down to #3. Alabama and Wisconsin each take a step forward to #1 and #2, respectively. Rounding out the top 4, Notre Dame was replaced by Miami, the team that beat them, rising up from #8. I'd assume the late loss will drop Georgia significantly further in the real rankings.

Missouri won again. This week the Tennessee coach was fired right after their win, as opposed to last week's win right after the Florida coach was fired. I've got them at #68. They've got 2 road games left, but the two opponents are a combined 1-11 against the SEC. Hooray for bowl inflation.

UTEP lost again and remained just behind Georgia Southern at #129 and #130. A little higher up, former #130 UMass is going on a tear, having now won 3 games to reach #114. This week was a late season FCS opponent, but it's still a win.

1Alabama10-0
2Wisconsin10-0
3Georgia9-1
4Miami9-0
5Clemson9-1
6USC9-2
7UCF9-0
8Oklahoma9-1
9Washington State9-2
10Notre Dame8-2
11Penn State8-2
12Ohio State8-2
13Auburn8-2
14Boise State8-2
15Washington8-2
16TCU8-2
17Memphis8-1
18Oklahoma State8-2
19San Diego State8-2
20Michigan8-2
21Toledo8-2
22Michigan State7-3
23NC State7-3
24South Florida8-1
25Mississippi State7-3
26Stanford7-3
27Troy8-2
28South Carolina7-3
29LSU7-3
30Virginia Tech7-3
31Florida Atlantic7-3
32Army8-2
33Ohio8-2
34Northwestern7-3
35Arizona7-3
36Iowa6-4
37Kentucky7-3
38West Virginia7-3
39North Texas7-3
40Northern Illinois7-3
41Iowa State6-4
42Marshall7-3
43Wyoming7-3
44Texas A&M6-4
45Navy6-3
46Fresno State7-3
47Wake Forest6-4
48Houston6-3
49SMU6-4
50Louisville6-4
51Florida Intl6-3
52Boston College5-5
53UAB7-3
54Oregon5-5
55Georgia Tech5-4
56Virginia6-4
57Arizona State5-5
58UCLA5-5
59Central Michigan6-4
60Western Michigan6-4
61California5-5
62Southern Mississippi6-4
63Georgia State6-3
64Ole Miss5-5
65Colorado State6-5
66Texas Tech5-5
67Utah5-5
68Missouri5-5
69Texas5-5
70Temple5-5
71Colorado5-6
72Kansas State5-5
73Akron5-5
74Appalachian State6-4
75Minnesota5-5
76Utah State5-5
77Syracuse4-6
78Maryland4-6
79Middle Tennessee5-5
80Tulane4-6
81UT San Antonio5-4
82Indiana4-6
83Arkansas State5-3
84Arkansas4-6
85Purdue4-6
86Vanderbilt4-6
87Nebraska4-6
88Tennessee4-6
89Duke4-6
90Florida State3-6
91Pittsburgh4-6
92Rutgers4-6
93Louisiana Tech4-6
94Miami (OH)4-6
95Western Kentucky5-5
96Florida3-6
97Air Force4-6
98Buffalo4-6
99UNLV4-6
100Old Dominion4-6
101South Alabama4-6
102Cincinnati3-7
103Louisiana Monroe4-5
104Louisiana4-5
105New Mexico State4-5
106Connecticut3-7
107Eastern Michigan3-7
108Idaho3-6
109New Mexico3-7
110Hawai'i3-7
111BYU3-8
112East Carolina2-8
113North Carolina2-8
114UMass3-7
115Kent State2-8
116Tulsa2-8
117Bowling Green2-8
118Nevada2-8
119Illinois2-8
120Ball State2-8
121Oregon State1-9
122Texas State2-8
123Baylor1-9
124Charlotte1-9
125Kansas1-9
126Rice1-9
127Coastal Carolina1-9
128San Jose State1-10
129Georgia Southern0-9
130UTEP0-10

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Georgia
Week 10 Georgia

2017-11-10

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 10, Thursday

Philadelphia over Jacksonville

I showed Seattle as a 70% favorite in the Thursday night game, and they won, but by less than a touchdown. I'm not sure if that's a good projection or not, but I do know I scored more points than FiveThirtyEight in their NFL preditions game, where they only favored Seattle by 56%. In other NFC West news, I've given up trying to run enough simulations get San Francisco to make the playoffs even once. It's not going to happen, although it's still not yet impossible.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI8-10.66688.8998.4488.9451.5528.7316.47
JAC5-30.67177.6194.2378.8848.9630.0316.42
LAR6-20.66466.5688.1367.3638.0320.8211.89
PIT6-20.58691.5795.6375.6338.8119.018.67
NO6-20.62072.0887.5262.8231.4915.468.12
KC6-30.57988.0592.1866.6332.8815.947.17
MIN6-20.59975.6584.6259.3728.1113.066.57
NE6-20.56365.4689.7765.4531.4714.566.31
SEA6-30.59833.2762.3336.2416.987.994.02
BUF5-30.55631.9571.6843.1820.109.223.94
DAL5-30.58510.9048.9126.3211.755.392.63
CAR6-30.52323.6754.1626.5610.264.021.72
BAL4-50.5437.4835.2917.457.793.501.45
TEN5-30.47618.8750.6323.849.153.541.25
DET4-40.53718.6732.2815.055.982.441.08
HOU3-50.5353.4714.466.863.041.360.55
ATL4-40.4964.1613.555.892.100.780.31
LAC3-50.5023.8410.174.581.880.770.29
GB4-40.4804.8314.165.621.920.680.26
OAK4-50.4645.5112.825.371.980.740.25
WAS4-40.4660.2013.254.981.620.560.21
NYJ4-50.4670.589.904.021.480.560.19
CIN3-50.4270.946.672.410.800.270.08
DEN3-50.4032.617.862.810.880.280.08
MIA4-40.3582.028.062.700.740.210.05
CHI3-50.4140.861.610.530.150.040.01
TB2-60.4190.090.480.150.040.010.00
ARI4-50.3620.180.570.160.040.010.00
IND3-60.3300.060.660.180.050.010.00
NYG1-70.3490.000.000.000.000.000.00
CLE0-80.3360.000.000.000.000.000.00
SF0-90.320------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville

2017-11-07

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 9, Final

Philadelphia over Jacksonville

As it turns out, quarterbacks are important. Detroit beat Green Bay handily on Monday, 30-17, but with Green Bay's last 7 points coming as time expired. Green Bay's playoff chances were cut to less than half of the 31% they had before yesterday's game, while Detroit nearly doubled from 17.7% to 33.4%. Also, San Francisco is still not mathematically eliminated, just still so unlikely that they don't show up even once in the playoffs in over a billion runs.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI8-10.66688.9098.6189.4252.1029.0716.68
JAC5-30.67177.8194.2778.9549.0030.0616.44
LAR6-20.66472.5389.1568.9139.0521.4112.22
PIT6-20.58691.5795.6475.6338.8119.018.69
NO6-20.62072.0688.0963.5031.9015.698.24
KC6-30.57988.0592.1966.6432.8915.947.17
MIN6-20.59975.6485.0560.1128.5313.286.68
NE6-20.56365.4789.7965.4731.4814.566.32
BUF5-30.55631.9471.7343.2020.109.223.94
SEA5-30.58526.5451.6328.7113.015.962.91
DAL5-30.58510.9050.9427.4512.245.642.75
CAR6-30.52323.6555.7127.4910.624.171.78
BAL4-50.5447.4835.3817.497.803.511.45
TEN5-30.47618.6950.3523.699.093.511.24
DET4-40.53818.6833.3815.686.242.551.12
HOU3-50.5353.4414.386.813.021.350.55
ATL4-40.4964.2014.406.282.230.830.33
LAC3-50.5023.8410.194.591.880.770.29
GB4-40.4804.8314.745.882.000.710.28
OAK4-50.4645.5012.855.381.980.740.25
WAS4-40.4660.1913.765.171.680.580.22
NYJ4-50.4670.589.924.031.490.560.19
CIN3-50.4270.946.692.420.800.270.08
DEN3-50.4032.607.882.810.880.280.08
MIA4-40.3582.018.082.700.740.210.05
CHI3-50.4140.851.690.560.160.050.02
ARI4-40.3760.942.330.700.180.050.01
TB2-60.4190.090.520.170.050.010.00
IND3-60.3300.060.660.180.050.010.00
NYG1-70.3490.000.000.000.000.000.00
CLE0-80.3360.000.000.000.000.000.00
SF0-90.320------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville

2017-11-06

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 9, Sunday

Philadelphia over Jacksonville

No one quite hit a 99% playoff probability yet, but Philadelphia's close at 98.65%. We have our first empty slots in the big matrix, first for Cleveland's chances of winning the Superbowl. Obviously, if they can make the playoffs, they can win the Superbowl, but it didn't happen in the 1.1 billion simulations I ran. Similarly, San Francisco is not actually eliminated from the playoffs, but didn't make it in any of my simulations. I tested this by running more simulations where they go 7-9, winning the rest of their games 1000-0, just to make sure they cover any possible tiebreakers. However, it also required allowing ties, which I don't usually do until I need to double-check any 0% or 100% values. Even in that case, they only get about a .0008% chance of winning the NFC West, so I'd say it's safe to spend your playoff ticket money if you're a San Francisco fan.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI8-10.66689.5798.6589.7652.4229.2816.80
JAC5-30.67178.2494.2078.4648.6829.8616.34
LAR6-20.66473.6889.4769.1539.2121.5112.27
PIT6-20.58691.6295.5875.6838.8219.058.70
NO6-20.62071.8887.6763.1531.7515.628.21
KC6-30.57988.6992.5366.7732.9515.997.20
MIN6-20.59976.7385.5860.2628.6113.346.71
NE6-20.56366.2390.3666.3831.9414.786.41
BUF5-30.55631.2172.1943.3220.189.273.97
SEA5-30.58525.4051.6028.6212.985.942.91
DAL5-30.58510.1950.6927.2612.165.612.74
CAR6-30.52323.9555.7627.5910.684.191.80
BAL4-50.5447.3533.5216.507.383.311.38
TEN5-30.47618.5351.9924.489.403.631.28
GB4-30.50613.0831.0413.945.131.940.80
HOU3-50.5353.1814.216.722.981.320.54
DET3-40.5139.3817.727.802.911.120.46
ATL4-40.4964.0713.425.852.070.770.31
LAC3-50.5023.6610.034.501.850.760.28
OAK4-50.4645.1712.405.171.900.700.24
WAS4-40.4660.2413.715.161.670.580.22
NYJ4-50.4670.6710.094.091.510.570.20
CIN3-50.4271.026.652.400.800.270.08
DEN3-50.4032.497.542.680.840.270.08
MIA4-40.3581.898.092.680.730.200.05
CHI3-50.4140.811.740.580.160.050.02
ARI4-40.3760.922.490.740.190.050.01
TB2-60.4190.090.450.150.040.010.00
IND3-60.3300.060.610.170.040.010.00
NYG1-70.3490.000.000.000.000.000.00
CLE0-80.3360.000.000.000.000.00-
SF0-90.320------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville

2017-11-05

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 10

The top 3 remained stable, but Penn State dropped from 4 all the way to #16 because of their loss to Michigan State. Notre Dame takes over the final playoff spot, but probably won't be able to hang on to it due to their lack of conference championship game. UCF, who lost a game due to a hurricane, is still undefeated, but only 8-0 compared to the top teams' 9-0.

Missouri won again with Florida flailing, and is up 10 spots to #82. It's not impossible that they could make one of the lowest-tier bowls now.

UTEP suffered a worse loss than Georgia Southern this week, and dropped to #130.

1Georgia9-0
2Alabama9-0
3Wisconsin9-0
4Notre Dame8-1
5UCF8-0
6Clemson8-1
7USC8-2
8Miami8-0
9Washington8-1
10Washington State8-2
11TCU8-1
12Memphis8-1
13Oklahoma8-1
14Toledo8-1
15San Diego State8-2
16Penn State7-2
17Michigan State7-2
18Ohio State7-2
19South Florida8-1
20Mississippi State7-2
21Auburn7-2
22Virginia Tech7-2
23Boise State7-2
24Michigan7-2
25Oklahoma State7-2
26Iowa6-3
27NC State6-3
28Troy7-2
29Iowa State6-3
30Arizona6-3
31South Carolina6-3
32Stanford6-3
33Northwestern6-3
34LSU6-3
35SMU6-3
36Army7-2
37Florida Atlantic6-3
38Houston6-3
39Ohio7-2
40Florida Intl6-2
41North Texas6-3
42Northern Illinois6-3
43Kentucky6-3
44West Virginia6-3
45Boston College5-4
46Arizona State5-4
47Wyoming6-3
48Virginia6-3
49Oregon5-5
50Texas A&M5-4
51Marshall6-3
52Fresno State6-3
53Wake Forest5-4
54Navy5-3
55California5-5
56Colorado State6-4
57Utah5-4
58Akron5-4
59UAB6-3
60Colorado5-5
61Louisville5-4
62Kansas State5-4
63Southern Mississippi5-4
64Western Michigan5-4
65Central Michigan5-4
66UCLA4-5
67Georgia Tech4-4
68Arkansas State5-2
69Syracuse4-5
70Utah State5-5
71Texas Tech4-5
72Georgia State5-3
73UT San Antonio5-3
74Maryland4-5
75Nebraska4-5
76Ole Miss4-5
77Texas4-5
78Pittsburgh4-5
79Arkansas4-5
80Vanderbilt4-5
81Purdue4-5
82Missouri4-5
83Duke4-5
84Temple4-5
85Tennessee4-5
86Appalachian State5-4
87Rutgers4-5
88Florida State3-5
89Western Kentucky5-4
90Minnesota4-5
91Louisiana Tech4-5
92Air Force4-5
93UNLV4-5
94Middle Tennessee4-5
95Florida3-5
96Tulane3-6
97Indiana3-6
98Cincinnati3-6
99Louisiana4-4
100Louisiana Monroe4-5
101New Mexico State4-5
102Eastern Michigan3-6
103Connecticut3-6
104Buffalo3-6
105Miami (OH)3-6
106New Mexico3-6
107South Alabama3-6
108Idaho3-6
109Hawai'i3-6
110East Carolina2-7
111Old Dominion3-6
112Bowling Green2-7
113Tulsa2-8
114Illinois2-7
115Kent State2-7
116BYU2-8
117Ball State2-7
118North Carolina1-8
119Oregon State1-8
120Nevada1-8
121UMass2-7
122Texas State2-7
123Baylor1-8
124Rice1-8
125Kansas1-8
126Charlotte1-8
127San Jose State1-9
128Coastal Carolina1-8
129Georgia Southern0-8
130UTEP0-9

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Georgia

2017-11-03

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 9, Thursday

Philadelphia over Jacksonville

Weren't the Jets supposed to contend for worst team ever this year? They're now 4-5 and way outside the top of the draft order. They beat Buffalo on Thursday night, resulting in some predictable complaints/whining from Richie Incognito. Fun fact! I used to get to sit about 3 rows behind the Rams sideline, right about the 50 yard line, from time to time when some specific season tickets would fall to me. During some lean years, when the fans would start to give the players trouble, Richie would yell back with gusto. I was half-expecting him to lunge into the crowd during one particularly bad game. Anyway, Buffalo lost, and dropped their playoff chances from 84% to 68%. New York raised theirs from a lackluster 2.5% to 7.5%, and now have a 0.5% chance of catching Miami, Buffalo, and New England and taking the division.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI7-10.63288.8597.3286.0748.5926.7014.69
JAC4-30.63969.5284.8064.8537.4421.5111.71
KC6-20.59591.3194.5775.6439.8520.6110.27
PIT6-20.58685.0593.5173.1937.9219.149.35
LAR5-20.62350.1181.0457.8431.2616.659.00
MIN6-20.59976.9686.9364.5233.0016.548.53
NE6-20.56364.1687.3763.4230.8214.706.84
NO5-20.58561.7678.1752.4225.6012.426.22
SEA5-20.58649.2075.0349.6824.5011.996.03
BUF5-30.55632.1867.6541.2019.519.204.22
BAL4-40.55112.7849.9326.6112.375.782.62
DAL4-30.56510.8739.6221.659.974.692.26
CAR5-30.51522.4043.8022.119.063.761.62
HOU3-40.54314.1731.3816.157.433.441.53
GB4-30.50612.6932.9115.736.322.571.09
ATL4-30.50214.2930.3315.116.012.421.02
TEN4-30.47116.2630.8714.365.602.190.83
DET3-40.5139.5619.338.973.661.520.65
CIN3-40.4672.1713.025.502.120.820.31
DEN3-40.4534.0313.665.732.120.790.28
LAC3-50.5022.518.253.741.570.660.27
NYJ4-50.4670.517.453.041.160.450.17
WAS3-40.4620.278.153.251.150.430.16
OAK3-50.4572.146.072.500.930.350.13
MIA4-30.3623.1511.264.001.140.330.09
TB2-50.4591.553.521.390.490.180.07
CHI3-50.4140.802.010.700.220.070.02
ARI3-40.3680.691.730.550.150.040.01
IND2-60.3320.050.220.060.020.000.00
NYG1-60.4010.010.090.030.010.000.00
CLE0-80.3360.000.000.000.000.000.00
SF0-80.3430.000.000.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville

2017-11-02

Bonus October Card Show Autograph

There's a mostly-monthly card show not far from me, with lots of signers that aren't household names. Then there's the big annual one every October, with nothing but Hall of Famers and huge stars. I don't collect football stuff, but this one had Emmitt Smith, Marcus Allen, and Tim Brown. I also don't really collect hockey, but Scotty Bowman, Curtis Joseph, and several other old time Blues were there. I do collect Bo Jackson, but his price was a bit too high for me, and I already have autographs from Lou Brock, Bob Gibson, Ozzie Smith, and Red Schoendienst. I didn't make it there on Saturday for Bruce Sutter, but I did get this, which is now a cornerstone of my collection.

Tony La Russa 10
For some reason when I started watching baseball in 1992, I decided my second favorite team was the Oakland A's. As such, some of my favorite players were Mark McGwire and Jose Canseco, and La Russa was one of my favorite managers. I'm sure I've relayed this story on the blog before, but in 1995, some time after the Cardinals fired Joe Torre as manager (which was June 16), I was at a game with my dad and overheard some guys behind us talking about how they had some inside information that Tony La Russa would be the Cardinals manager in 1996. If I heard such a rumor today of course I'd go straight to the internet and see if anyone else was talking about it, but at that time all I could really do was tell myself that it'd be nice, but I didn't see it happening. Of course, I was a kid, I had no reason to feel like I knew what I was talking about. Tony did become the next Cardinals manager that offseason, and managed 16 seasons, winning 2 World Series.

When I was at the show, I wore a shirt I bought from Uni Watch a few years ago.
Tony took my baseball from the organizer next to him I had handed it to, looked up at me and gave a cordial "how ya doin?", then looked back at the ball, paused, looked back to me, and said "Dodgers?!". I suppose I hadn't really thought through his history with them, losing the World Series to them with Oakland and then being their division rival the past 4 years with Arizona. I also don't really think of the shirt as a Dodgers shirt, even though that's obviously what it's styled after. He was just giving me a hard time and laughed it off, but I can now say I was razzed by Tony La Russa.

2017-11-01

2017 World Series Projection, November 1

Los Angeles over Houston

World Series
HOU 3-3 LAD

League Championship Series
NYY 3-4 HOU
CHC 1-4 LAD

Division Series
NYY 3-2 CLE
BOS 1-3 HOU
ARI 0-3 LAD
CHC 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
MIN 0-1 NYY
COL 0-1 ARI

TeamStrengthWin
LAD0.631251.73
HOU0.614948.27

We're down to the final game of the season. I give LA the slightest edge, but really it's like flipping an almost-fair coin. We'll either see a 28-year drought end for LA, or the first title ever in Houston's 56 seasons of play.

2017-10-31

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 8, Final

Philadelphia over Jacksonville

If John Elway came out of retirement, could he be an improvement at QB for Denver this year? I'm not saying Denver could have beat Kansas City with him, but it might not have really gone any worse. Kansas City is still digging out from their 2 consecutive losses, and still trail Philadelphia for the top spot in the NFC by about 7 percentage points.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI7-10.63288.8597.3186.0648.5826.7014.59
JAC4-30.63969.5184.1863.0135.9220.4311.12
KC6-20.59591.2194.3573.4238.1119.549.73
PIT6-20.58685.0593.0871.6736.5918.308.95
LAR5-20.62350.1180.9957.8131.2416.648.93
MIN6-20.59976.9586.9164.4932.9916.538.46
BUF5-20.58748.9483.6859.0330.0515.077.38
NE6-20.56348.9486.3358.7828.1913.356.21
NO5-20.58561.4278.0152.2725.5412.396.16
SEA5-20.58649.2074.9849.6624.4911.995.99
BAL4-40.55112.7847.6424.9611.525.332.41
DAL4-30.56510.8739.5421.619.964.692.24
CAR5-30.51522.7844.3522.449.203.821.63
HOU3-40.54314.1730.2315.266.973.191.42
GB4-30.50612.6932.8315.716.312.571.08
ATL4-30.50214.2230.2315.086.002.421.00
TEN4-30.47116.2730.1513.675.292.050.77
DET3-40.5139.5619.288.953.651.520.65
CIN3-40.4672.1811.995.001.910.730.27
DEN3-40.4534.1613.285.431.990.740.26
LAC3-50.5022.497.353.291.370.580.23
WAS3-40.4620.278.133.241.150.430.16
OAK3-50.4572.145.662.280.840.310.11
MIA4-30.3622.019.423.230.920.260.07
TB2-50.4591.593.591.420.500.180.07
NYJ3-50.4390.122.480.920.320.120.04
CHI3-50.4140.802.000.700.220.070.02
ARI3-40.3680.691.730.550.150.040.01
NYG1-60.4010.010.090.030.010.000.00
IND2-60.3320.050.190.050.010.000.00
CLE0-80.3360.000.000.000.000.000.00
SF0-80.3430.000.000.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville

2017-10-30

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Philadelphia over Jacksonville

My projection stayed almost the same, with just the winner and loser swapping places, because Philadelphia won and Jacksonville was on bye. Jacksonville's playoff chances actually went up a little, but not as much as Philadelphia's did. We're getting to the point in the year when I have to run a whole lot of simulations to try to get every possible champion to hit at least once, because it'd be quite the rare universe where San Francisco wound up as your Superbowl champs. I ran 1 billion simulations, and the numbers I output for my own use still showed a 0.000000% chance, which means it was somewhere less than 5 out of that billion. By comparison, their odds of making the playoffs are about 40 in 100 million, and odds of making the Superbowl round to 1 in 100 million.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI7-10.63288.5797.2485.8648.4626.6414.67
JAC4-30.63969.5083.8163.9536.9221.2211.55
PIT6-20.58685.0792.9272.7637.6019.039.30
LAR5-20.62350.1180.9857.8231.2516.659.01
MIN6-20.59976.9586.9064.5033.0016.548.53
BUF5-20.58749.5083.4460.2431.0615.737.71
KC5-20.57878.1385.2561.5630.7915.267.33
NE6-20.56348.3985.2959.2728.7813.786.41
NO5-20.58461.4178.0052.2925.5512.406.22
SEA5-20.58649.2074.9749.6624.4911.996.04
BAL4-40.55112.7946.8925.1711.745.492.49
DAL4-30.56511.1539.9121.8410.074.742.28
CAR5-30.51522.7844.3322.439.203.821.65
HOU3-40.54314.1729.1615.147.013.251.45
GB4-30.50612.6932.8115.706.312.571.09
ATL4-30.50214.2230.2215.086.002.421.02
TEN4-30.47116.2729.4213.815.422.130.80
DEN3-30.47615.3326.9312.915.061.990.76
DET3-40.5139.5619.278.943.651.520.65
CIN3-40.4672.1511.454.911.900.740.28
LAC3-50.5023.567.783.581.510.640.26
WAS3-40.4620.277.963.171.130.420.16
OAK3-50.4572.985.972.470.920.350.13
MIA4-30.3622.009.123.250.940.270.08
TB2-50.4591.593.591.420.500.180.07
NYJ3-50.4390.122.400.920.330.120.04
CHI3-50.4140.802.000.700.220.070.02
ARI3-40.3680.691.730.550.150.040.01
NYG1-60.4010.010.100.030.010.000.00
IND2-60.3320.050.170.050.010.000.00
CLE0-80.3360.000.000.000.000.000.00
SF0-80.3430.000.000.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia