Tenets of Wilson

2023-11-17

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Baltimore over San Francisco

We finally had an important game on a Thursday or Monday; it seems like those days almost never have any meaningful movement. Baltimore beat Cincinnati to start Week 11. While Cincinnati was only 5-4, a division win is always extra helpful for tiebreaker purposes.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	8-3	0.715	66.3	98.1	76.4	50.6	32.2	19.7
SF	6-3	0.681	81.9	97.0	69.3	42.8	25.6	14.2
KC	7-2	0.633	93.3	97.7	76.6	43.4	21.9	11.4
DAL	6-3	0.664	20.1	94.7	62.2	36.2	20.7	11.1
PHI	8-1	0.596	79.9	99.9	79.2	40.9	19.7	9.1
CLE	6-3	0.587	23.9	87.2	50.3	23.9	11.0	5.2
DET	7-2	0.566	70.4	96.2	54.3	25.0	11.3	4.9
MIA	6-3	0.589	66.4	81.1	45.6	21.7	10.1	4.8
BUF	5-5	0.641	28.2	41.6	23.5	12.4	6.5	3.4
MIN	6-4	0.547	28.9	87.4	42.4	18.5	8.0	3.3
HOU	5-4	0.547	38.2	63.2	31.6	13.3	5.6	2.4
JAX	6-3	0.512	49.6	73.5	34.6	13.5	5.2	2.1
NO	5-5	0.534	53.0	62.1	27.0	11.4	4.9	2.0
SEA	6-3	0.498	17.6	77.9	33.1	12.9	5.0	1.9
TB	4-5	0.511	30.7	41.7	17.2	6.9	2.8	1.1
PIT	6-3	0.441	9.6	58.5	22.4	7.2	2.3	0.8
LAC	4-5	0.541	4.0	22.2	10.1	4.2	1.8	0.8
IND	5-5	0.489	10.3	34.3	14.0	5.0	1.9	0.7
GB	3-6	0.494	0.6	13.4	5.3	2.0	0.8	0.3
ATL	4-6	0.441	16.2	19.3	6.5	2.2	0.7	0.2
CIN	5-5	0.452	0.2	12.6	4.5	1.5	0.5	0.2
NYJ	4-5	0.432	5.3	9.0	3.2	1.0	0.3	0.1
LV	5-5	0.425	2.1	10.0	3.4	1.1	0.3	0.1
LAR	3-6	0.447	0.5	5.9	2.1	0.7	0.2	0.1
DEN	4-5	0.412	0.5	6.9	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.1
TEN	3-6	0.440	1.9	4.0	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.0
WSH	4-6	0.402	0.0	2.9	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	3-7	0.406	0.1	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-8	0.344	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	2-8	0.343	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-8	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.255	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco

2023-11-14

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 10, Final

Baltimore over San Francisco

Buffalo keeps sliding, and lost at home to Denver on Monday. Overall, the projection stays the same. And, while no one is eliminated from the playoffs yet, I now show the 4 8-loss teams (Carolina, Arizona, New England, and the New York Giants) with no chance at their conference #1 seed.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	7-3	0.695	54.8	94.5	69.8	44.6	27.5	16.2
SF	6-3	0.681	82.1	97.1	69.5	42.9	25.7	14.6
KC	7-2	0.633	93.1	97.6	77.6	44.1	23.1	12.0
DAL	6-3	0.664	20.1	94.7	62.2	36.2	20.7	11.4
PHI	8-1	0.596	79.9	99.9	79.2	40.9	19.6	9.4
CLE	6-3	0.587	30.9	86.3	51.1	24.9	11.8	5.6
MIA	6-3	0.589	66.8	81.3	46.1	22.5	10.7	5.1
DET	7-2	0.566	70.7	96.1	54.2	24.9	11.3	5.1
BUF	5-5	0.641	28.0	41.0	23.4	12.6	6.7	3.6
MIN	6-4	0.547	28.6	87.0	42.1	18.4	8.0	3.4
HOU	5-4	0.547	38.4	62.9	31.9	13.9	6.0	2.6
JAX	6-3	0.512	49.5	72.8	34.7	13.9	5.5	2.2
NO	5-5	0.534	53.0	62.2	27.1	11.4	4.9	2.0
SEA	6-3	0.498	17.3	77.8	33.1	12.9	5.0	1.9
TB	4-5	0.511	30.7	41.7	17.2	6.9	2.8	1.1
LAC	4-5	0.541	4.2	22.5	10.4	4.5	2.0	0.8
PIT	6-3	0.441	12.1	56.5	22.1	7.4	2.5	0.8
IND	5-5	0.489	10.1	33.1	13.7	5.1	1.9	0.7
CIN	5-4	0.479	2.3	21.7	8.8	3.2	1.2	0.4
GB	3-6	0.494	0.6	13.4	5.3	2.0	0.8	0.3
ATL	4-6	0.441	16.2	19.3	6.5	2.2	0.8	0.2
LV	5-5	0.425	2.2	10.0	3.5	1.1	0.4	0.1
NYJ	4-5	0.432	5.3	8.9	3.2	1.1	0.4	0.1
LAR	3-6	0.447	0.5	6.0	2.1	0.7	0.3	0.1
DEN	4-5	0.412	0.5	6.8	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1
TEN	3-6	0.440	2.0	4.0	1.4	0.5	0.2	0.1
WSH	4-6	0.403	0.0	3.0	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	3-7	0.406	0.1	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-8	0.344	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	2-8	0.343	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-8	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.255	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2023-11-13

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 10, Sunday

Baltimore over San Francisco

San Francisco had a big win over Jacksonville, 34-3, which raised their strength up quite a bit and put them back on top of the NFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	7-3	0.695	54.8	94.0	69.0	43.8	26.9	15.8
SF	6-3	0.681	82.1	97.1	69.5	42.9	25.7	14.6
KC	7-2	0.633	93.3	97.5	76.7	43.2	22.5	11.7
DAL	6-3	0.664	20.1	94.7	62.2	36.2	20.7	11.3
PHI	8-1	0.596	79.9	99.9	79.2	40.9	19.6	9.3
CLE	6-3	0.587	30.9	85.5	50.3	24.3	11.4	5.4
BUF	5-4	0.642	40.0	59.5	34.9	18.9	10.1	5.3
DET	7-2	0.566	70.7	96.2	54.2	24.9	11.3	5.0
MIA	6-3	0.589	55.9	79.0	44.1	21.4	10.1	4.8
MIN	6-4	0.547	28.6	87.0	42.1	18.4	8.0	3.4
HOU	5-4	0.547	38.4	61.6	30.9	13.4	5.7	2.5
JAX	6-3	0.512	49.5	71.6	33.7	13.4	5.3	2.1
NO	5-5	0.534	53.0	62.1	27.1	11.4	4.9	2.0
SEA	6-3	0.498	17.3	77.8	33.1	12.9	5.0	1.9
TB	4-5	0.511	30.8	41.7	17.2	6.9	2.8	1.1
PIT	6-3	0.441	12.1	54.7	21.2	7.0	2.3	0.8
LAC	4-5	0.541	4.3	21.1	9.7	4.2	1.8	0.8
IND	5-5	0.489	10.1	31.5	12.9	4.8	1.8	0.7
CIN	5-4	0.479	2.3	20.5	8.3	3.0	1.1	0.4
GB	3-6	0.494	0.6	13.4	5.3	2.0	0.8	0.3
ATL	4-6	0.441	16.2	19.3	6.5	2.2	0.8	0.2
LV	5-5	0.425	2.2	9.3	3.2	1.0	0.3	0.1
NYJ	4-5	0.432	4.0	7.8	2.8	0.9	0.3	0.1
LAR	3-6	0.447	0.5	6.0	2.1	0.7	0.3	0.1
TEN	3-6	0.440	2.0	3.7	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
WSH	4-6	0.403	0.0	2.9	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
DEN	3-5	0.410	0.2	2.7	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	3-7	0.406	0.1	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-8	0.344	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	2-8	0.343	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-8	0.309	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.255	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2023-11-12

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 11

The Errors:
None, because I'm still catching up.

The Top:
Ohio State wins again to stay #1. We had a little shuffling around despite the top teams winning, with James Madison dropping down to #6 and out of the problematic top 4, if the CFP committee were to pay any attention to me that is.

The Home Team:
Missouri won against Tennessee, but only gained 2 spots. In the official rankings, Tennessee was one ahead of Missouri before the weekend, #13 and #14, but in mine it was a #15 over #25.

The Bottom:
Kent State lost again and holds strong at #133.

Winless and Lossless:
There are still 7 undefeated teams, all 10-0, and no winless teams.

1	Ohio State	10-0
2	Georgia	10-0
3	Washington	10-0
4	Florida State	10-0
5	Michigan	10-0
6	James Madison	10-0
7	Alabama	9-1
8	Liberty	10-0
9	Texas	9-1
10	Oregon	9-1
11	Louisville	9-1
12	Ole Miss	8-2
13	Missouri	8-2
14	Penn State	8-2
15	Tulane	9-1
16	Oklahoma	8-2
17	Toledo	9-1
18	Iowa	8-2
19	Troy	8-2
20	Oregon State	8-2
21	North Carolina	8-2
22	Memphis	8-2
23	UNLV	8-2
24	LSU	7-3
25	Fresno State	8-2
26	Notre Dame	7-3
27	Utah	7-3
28	Oklahoma State	7-3
29	Kansas State	7-3
30	Kansas	7-3
31	Air Force	8-2
32	Coastal Carolina	7-3
33	Miami (OH)	8-2
34	Tennessee	7-3
35	USC	7-4
36	Arizona	7-3
37	NC State	7-3
38	SMU	8-2
39	Duke	6-4
40	New Mexico State	8-3
41	Jacksonville State	7-3
42	Iowa State	6-4
43	Clemson	6-4
44	Wyoming	6-4
45	Ohio	7-3
46	Miami	6-4
47	UT San Antonio	7-3
48	West Virginia	6-4
49	UCLA	6-4
50	Georgia State	6-4
51	Texas A&M	6-4
52	Auburn	6-4
53	Rutgers	6-4
54	Kentucky	6-4
55	Boston College	6-4
56	Appalachian State	6-4
57	Bowling Green	6-4
58	Maryland	6-4
59	Texas State	6-4
60	Georgia Southern	6-4
61	Marshall	5-5
62	Texas Tech	5-5
63	Georgia Tech	5-5
64	Northwestern	5-5
65	San José State	5-5
66	Boise State	5-5
67	UCF	5-5
68	Western Kentucky	5-5
69	Minnesota	5-5
70	Illinois	5-5
71	Virginia Tech	5-5
72	Wisconsin	5-5
73	Syracuse	5-5
74	South Alabama	5-5
75	BYU	5-5
76	Florida	5-5
77	Utah State	5-5
78	Arkansas State	5-5
79	Nebraska	5-5
80	South Carolina	4-6
81	South Florida	5-5
82	California	4-6
83	TCU	4-6
84	Louisiana	5-5
85	Colorado	4-6
86	Central Michigan	5-5
87	Mississippi State	4-6
88	Old Dominion	4-6
89	Wake Forest	4-6
90	Army	4-6
91	Western Michigan	4-6
92	Washington State	4-6
93	Houston	4-6
94	Michigan State	3-7
95	Navy	4-5
96	Colorado State	4-6
97	Hawai'i	4-7
98	Rice	4-6
99	Stanford	3-7
100	Purdue	3-7
101	Northern Illinois	4-6
102	Arizona State	3-7
103	Eastern Michigan	4-6
104	Florida Atlantic	4-6
105	Arkansas	3-7
106	Indiana	3-7
107	Baylor	3-7
108	UMass	3-7
109	Middle Tennessee	3-7
110	Southern Mississippi	3-7
111	UAB	3-7
112	Florida International	4-6
113	Cincinnati	3-7
114	UTEP	3-7
115	Virginia	2-8
116	Ball State	3-7
117	San Diego State	3-7
118	Buffalo	3-7
119	North Texas	3-7
120	New Mexico	3-7
121	Tulsa	3-7
122	Charlotte	3-7
123	Temple	3-7
124	East Carolina	2-8
125	Vanderbilt	2-9
126	Pittsburgh	2-8
127	Nevada	2-8
128	Louisiana Tech	3-8
129	Louisiana Monroe	2-8
130	Sam Houston State	2-8
131	Connecticut	1-9
132	Akron	2-8
133	Kent State	1-9

2023 History and #1s
Week 1 Jacksonville State and San Diego State
Week 2 Notre Dame
Week 3 Notre Dame
Week 4 Penn State
Week 5 Texas
Week 6 Oklahoma
Week 7 Michigan
Week 8 Michigan
Week 9 Ohio State
Week 10 Ohio State

2023-11-10

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 10, Thursday

Baltimore over Philadelphia

Chicago beat Carolina Thursday, which had basically no effect on the NFC as a whole. The only semi-interesting thing is that my simulations showed Arizona never winning the #1 seed in even a single simulation for the last few game days, but now they do, and Carolina doesn't. I'm not convinced it's mathematically impossible, but I think they'd have to flip some tiebreakers in addition to winning the rest of their games.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	7-2	0.698	77.9	97.1	76.5	48.6	29.7	18.5
KC	7-2	0.633	90.8	97.5	73.3	40.7	20.7	11.4
PHI	8-1	0.596	85.9	99.9	84.2	45.8	23.7	11.1
SF	5-3	0.635	75.2	92.2	60.7	35.2	19.9	10.1
DAL	5-3	0.624	14.0	89.0	54.7	30.4	16.8	8.4
DET	6-2	0.565	71.6	93.3	53.9	26.4	12.7	5.6
BUF	5-4	0.642	38.5	59.9	34.8	18.4	9.6	5.4
MIA	6-3	0.589	54.0	78.8	43.4	20.5	9.6	4.8
JAX	6-2	0.571	71.4	86.3	49.0	22.3	9.9	4.8
CLE	5-3	0.587	13.8	71.4	37.9	17.7	8.3	4.2
NO	5-4	0.551	66.4	77.7	39.1	18.2	8.5	3.6
MIN	5-4	0.531	25.2	74.2	35.6	15.9	7.1	2.9
SEA	5-3	0.492	23.4	68.0	30.3	12.4	5.1	1.9
HOU	4-4	0.543	20.6	45.5	21.3	8.9	3.7	1.7
LAC	4-4	0.549	7.8	32.7	15.2	6.5	2.8	1.3
GB	3-5	0.502	3.0	27.4	11.9	4.9	2.1	0.8
CIN	5-3	0.485	3.0	32.0	12.9	4.7	1.7	0.7
TB	3-5	0.481	12.7	25.7	10.6	4.2	1.7	0.6
ATL	4-5	0.444	21.0	31.9	11.9	4.3	1.6	0.5
PIT	5-3	0.432	5.4	41.1	14.4	4.5	1.4	0.5
IND	4-5	0.484	4.6	24.5	9.5	3.4	1.2	0.5
NYJ	4-4	0.443	7.4	16.4	6.0	1.9	0.6	0.2
TEN	3-5	0.473	3.4	8.0	3.1	1.1	0.4	0.1
WSH	4-5	0.407	0.0	11.0	3.8	1.2	0.4	0.1
LAR	3-6	0.448	1.4	7.1	2.7	1.0	0.4	0.1
LV	4-5	0.420	1.2	5.7	1.9	0.6	0.2	0.1
DEN	3-5	0.410	0.2	2.8	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	3-7	0.407	0.3	2.2	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0
NE	2-7	0.328	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-7	0.286	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-8	0.344	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	1-8	0.343	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2023-11-07

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 9, Final

Baltimore over Philadelphia

Monday's win by the LA Chargers over the New York Jets didn't move the needle for Baltimore at all, and the projection stands.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	7-2	0.698	77.9	97.1	76.5	48.6	29.8	18.5
KC	7-2	0.633	90.8	97.5	73.3	40.7	20.7	11.4
PHI	8-1	0.596	86.0	99.9	84.2	45.8	23.7	11.1
SF	5-3	0.635	75.2	92.3	60.7	35.2	19.9	10.2
DAL	5-3	0.624	14.0	89.0	54.6	30.3	16.8	8.4
DET	6-2	0.565	71.7	93.5	54.0	26.4	12.7	5.6
BUF	5-4	0.642	38.6	59.9	34.9	18.4	9.7	5.4
MIA	6-3	0.589	54.0	78.9	43.4	20.6	9.6	4.8
JAX	6-2	0.572	71.2	86.1	48.9	22.2	9.8	4.8
CLE	5-3	0.587	13.8	71.5	37.9	17.8	8.3	4.2
NO	5-4	0.551	66.4	77.6	39.0	18.2	8.5	3.6
MIN	5-4	0.531	25.2	74.5	35.8	15.9	7.1	2.9
SEA	5-3	0.492	23.4	68.4	30.4	12.4	5.1	1.9
HOU	4-4	0.543	20.7	45.5	21.3	8.9	3.7	1.7
LAC	4-4	0.549	7.8	32.7	15.2	6.5	2.8	1.3
GB	3-5	0.502	3.0	27.3	11.9	4.9	2.1	0.8
CIN	5-3	0.485	3.0	32.0	12.9	4.6	1.7	0.7
TB	3-5	0.481	12.5	25.4	10.4	4.1	1.7	0.6
ATL	4-5	0.444	20.9	31.9	11.9	4.3	1.6	0.5
PIT	5-3	0.431	5.4	41.1	14.4	4.5	1.4	0.5
IND	4-5	0.484	4.7	24.6	9.5	3.4	1.2	0.5
NYJ	4-4	0.443	7.4	16.4	6.0	1.9	0.6	0.2
TEN	3-5	0.473	3.4	8.0	3.1	1.1	0.4	0.1
WSH	4-5	0.407	0.0	11.1	3.8	1.2	0.4	0.1
LAR	3-6	0.447	1.4	7.2	2.7	1.0	0.4	0.1
LV	4-5	0.420	1.2	5.7	1.9	0.6	0.2	0.1
DEN	3-5	0.410	0.2	2.8	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	2-7	0.406	0.2	1.4	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0
CAR	1-7	0.357	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-7	0.328	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-7	0.286	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	1-8	0.343	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2023-11-06

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 9, Sunday

Baltimore over Philadelphia

Dallas loses to Philadelphia, which is a huge swing for the NFC East division title, and that puts Philadelphia on top of the NFC overall for the first time this year. Philadelphia's 99.9% playoff chances are rounded up here, so I'm not marking them officially as the first team to 99.9%. It's more like 99.893%. Yes, I'd be that professor who won't round your grade.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	7-2	0.698	78.6	97.4	76.9	49.0	30.1	18.7
KC	7-2	0.633	94.5	98.1	74.2	41.4	21.1	11.6
PHI	8-1	0.596	86.0	99.9	84.2	45.7	23.6	11.1
SF	5-3	0.635	75.2	92.3	60.7	35.2	19.9	10.2
DAL	5-3	0.624	14.0	89.0	54.6	30.3	16.8	8.4
DET	6-2	0.565	72.1	93.7	54.3	26.5	12.8	5.6
BUF	5-4	0.642	35.4	58.8	34.3	18.1	9.5	5.3
JAX	6-2	0.572	71.7	86.3	49.0	22.4	9.9	4.8
MIA	6-3	0.589	48.3	75.6	41.5	19.6	9.1	4.6
CLE	5-3	0.587	13.1	70.8	37.6	17.6	8.2	4.2
NO	5-4	0.551	66.8	77.8	39.0	18.2	8.5	3.6
MIN	5-4	0.531	24.8	74.5	35.8	15.9	7.1	2.9
SEA	5-3	0.492	23.4	68.4	30.4	12.4	5.1	1.9
HOU	4-4	0.543	20.2	44.7	21.0	8.8	3.7	1.7
NYJ	4-3	0.493	16.4	35.6	14.9	5.6	2.1	0.9
GB	3-5	0.502	3.0	28.1	12.2	5.0	2.1	0.8
CIN	5-3	0.485	3.0	32.3	13.1	4.7	1.7	0.7
TB	3-5	0.481	12.6	25.5	10.5	4.1	1.7	0.6
PIT	5-3	0.431	5.3	41.3	14.5	4.6	1.5	0.5
IND	4-5	0.484	4.7	24.7	9.6	3.4	1.3	0.5
ATL	4-5	0.444	20.4	31.0	11.5	4.2	1.5	0.5
LAC	3-4	0.511	3.9	17.2	7.2	2.8	1.1	0.5
TEN	3-5	0.473	3.4	8.0	3.1	1.1	0.4	0.1
LAR	3-6	0.447	1.4	7.2	2.7	1.0	0.4	0.1
WSH	4-5	0.407	0.0	10.6	3.6	1.2	0.4	0.1
LV	4-5	0.420	1.4	5.9	1.9	0.6	0.2	0.1
DEN	3-5	0.410	0.3	3.1	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	2-7	0.406	0.2	1.4	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0
CAR	1-7	0.357	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-7	0.328	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-7	0.285	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	1-8	0.343	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2023-11-05

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 10

The Errors:
None, because to be honest I pulled this data very shortly after the week 9 post was made very late.

The Top:
Ohio State wins and holds their #1 spot, but the top 6 are all 9-0. James Madison rises all the way to #2, even though they are ineligible for the Playoff, and all or most bowls depending on where I read the details.

The Home Team:
Missouri lost, but only lost 1 position and fell to #15, because it was a high-quality loss, to the other #2 team, Georgia.

The Bottom:
Sam Houston State got out of the gutter with a win, and Kent State is now the worst team out there.

Winless and Lossless:
There are now 7 undefeated teams, down from 8, thanks to Air Force's loss to Army. Sam Houston State was the only winless team, so there are none remaining.

1	Ohio State	9-0
T-2	James Madison	9-0
T-2	Georgia	9-0
4	Washington	9-0
5	Florida State	9-0
6	Michigan	9-0
7	Texas	8-1
8	Liberty	9-0
9	Ole Miss	8-1
10	Alabama	8-1
11	Penn State	8-1
12	Louisville	8-1
13	Oregon	8-1
14	Tulane	8-1
15	Missouri	7-2
16	Fresno State	8-1
17	Oklahoma	7-2
18	Notre Dame	7-3
19	Toledo	8-1
20	Oklahoma State	7-2
21	Troy	7-2
22	Kansas	7-2
23	Utah	7-2
24	Air Force	8-1
25	Tennessee	7-2
26	Oregon State	7-2
27	Iowa	7-2
28	USC	7-3
29	Memphis	7-2
30	North Carolina	7-2
31	Duke	6-3
32	Kansas State	6-3
33	LSU	6-3
34	UNLV	7-2
35	UCLA	6-3
36	Miami (OH)	7-2
37	Coastal Carolina	6-3
38	Arizona	6-3
39	Jacksonville State	7-3
40	Wyoming	6-3
41	SMU	7-2
42	Georgia State	6-3
43	NC State	6-3
44	West Virginia	6-3
45	Miami	6-3
46	Boston College	6-3
47	Rutgers	6-3
48	Kentucky	6-3
49	Georgia Southern	6-3
50	Texas State	6-3
51	New Mexico State	7-3
52	Clemson	5-4
53	Georgia Tech	5-4
54	Iowa State	5-4
55	Ohio	6-3
56	UT San Antonio	6-3
57	Minnesota	5-4
58	Texas A&M	5-4
59	Auburn	5-4
T-60	Bowling Green	5-4
T-60	Wisconsin	5-4
62	Western Kentucky	5-4
63	Maryland	5-4
64	Florida	5-4
65	BYU	5-4
66	Arkansas State	5-4
67	Nebraska	5-4
68	Appalachian State	5-4
69	Louisiana	5-4
70	Illinois	4-5
71	Texas Tech	4-5
72	Northwestern	4-5
73	Boise State	4-5
74	Central Michigan	5-4
75	Marshall	4-5
76	TCU	4-5
77	Colorado	4-5
78	San José State	4-5
79	South Alabama	4-5
80	UCF	4-5
81	Mississippi State	4-5
82	Utah State	4-5
83	Syracuse	4-5
84	Wake Forest	4-5
85	Virginia Tech	4-5
86	Houston	4-5
87	Washington State	4-5
88	South Florida	4-5
89	South Carolina	3-6
90	Northern Illinois	4-5
91	Old Dominion	4-5
92	California	3-6
93	Michigan State	3-6
94	Florida Atlantic	4-5
95	Rice	4-5
96	Stanford	3-6
97	Indiana	3-6
98	Arkansas	3-6
99	Eastern Michigan	4-5
100	UAB	3-6
101	Florida International	4-5
102	Baylor	3-6
103	Navy	3-5
104	San Diego State	3-6
105	Buffalo	3-6
106	Army	3-6
107	Western Michigan	3-6
108	Colorado State	3-6
109	UMass	3-7
110	Virginia	2-7
111	North Texas	3-6
112	UTEP	3-7
113	Tulsa	3-6
114	New Mexico	3-6
115	Purdue	2-7
116	Arizona State	2-7
117	Charlotte	3-6
118	Hawai'i	3-7
119	Temple	3-6
120	Louisiana Tech	3-7
121	Nevada	2-7
122	Vanderbilt	2-8
123	Middle Tennessee	2-7
124	Pittsburgh	2-7
125	Southern Mississippi	2-7
126	Cincinnati	2-7
127	Ball State	2-7
128	Louisiana Monroe	2-7
129	Akron	2-7
130	Connecticut	1-8
131	East Carolina	1-8
132	Sam Houston State	1-8
133	Kent State	1-8

2023 History and #1s
Week 1 Jacksonville State and San Diego State
Week 2 Notre Dame
Week 3 Notre Dame
Week 4 Penn State
Week 5 Texas
Week 6 Oklahoma
Week 7 Michigan
Week 8 Michigan
Week 9 Ohio State

2023-11-03

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 9, Thursday

Baltimore over Dallas

Pittsburgh beat Tennessee on Thursday, which had little effect on the AFC as a whole, and the projection remains the same.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	6-2	0.650	72.8	93.2	67.3	39.4	22.4	12.7
DAL	5-2	0.629	37.8	92.5	62.8	35.6	19.9	10.5
KC	6-2	0.617	91.3	96.1	68.2	37.2	19.4	10.4
SF	5-3	0.635	59.1	89.8	58.9	33.9	19.2	10.3
PHI	7-1	0.587	62.2	99.1	72.6	37.9	19.2	9.3
BUF	5-3	0.646	39.5	77.6	49.0	27.6	15.5	8.7
MIA	6-2	0.593	49.2	86.7	53.6	27.2	13.5	6.9
DET	6-2	0.565	76.9	93.3	55.0	27.0	12.9	6.0
JAX	6-2	0.572	77.4	89.2	52.9	25.4	11.9	5.8
SEA	5-2	0.558	38.2	83.1	46.2	22.2	10.5	4.8
NO	4-4	0.536	48.4	62.5	29.7	13.4	6.0	2.6
MIN	4-4	0.527	21.0	60.9	28.6	12.6	5.6	2.4
CLE	4-3	0.531	12.1	53.4	25.3	10.9	4.7	2.1
HOU	3-4	0.543	16.3	39.9	19.0	8.4	3.7	1.7
NYJ	4-3	0.493	11.2	39.7	17.0	6.7	2.6	1.1
TB	3-4	0.483	20.9	34.9	14.3	5.7	2.3	0.9
ATL	4-4	0.447	30.1	42.8	16.0	5.8	2.1	0.7
LAC	3-4	0.511	7.0	22.1	9.6	4.0	1.6	0.7
PIT	5-3	0.431	11.2	45.8	16.7	5.6	1.9	0.7
CIN	4-3	0.471	3.9	22.0	8.8	3.3	1.2	0.5
LAR	3-5	0.483	2.8	17.7	7.2	2.9	1.2	0.4
IND	3-5	0.462	2.8	18.0	6.8	2.4	0.9	0.3
GB	2-5	0.467	1.6	12.4	4.9	1.9	0.7	0.3
TEN	3-5	0.473	3.5	8.2	3.3	1.2	0.5	0.2
WSH	3-5	0.406	0.1	5.8	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.1
DEN	3-5	0.410	0.6	4.1	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
CHI	2-6	0.419	0.5	3.4	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
LV	3-5	0.377	1.1	3.3	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0
CAR	1-6	0.380	0.6	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	2-6	0.339	0.0	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-6	0.321	0.0	0.9	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
ARI	1-7	0.390	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

2023-10-31

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 8, Final

Baltimore over Dallas

Detroit defeated Las Vegas, which I though might have given Kansas City enough of a boost in their division chances push them back atop the AFC, but it wasn't quite enough.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	6-2	0.650	75.7	93.6	67.7	39.6	22.4	12.7
DAL	5-2	0.629	37.8	92.6	62.8	35.6	19.9	10.5
KC	6-2	0.617	91.3	96.2	68.3	37.1	19.4	10.3
SF	5-3	0.635	59.1	89.8	58.9	33.9	19.2	10.3
PHI	7-1	0.587	62.1	99.1	72.6	37.9	19.2	9.3
BUF	5-3	0.646	39.6	78.2	49.3	27.8	15.5	8.7
MIA	6-2	0.593	49.1	87.0	53.7	27.3	13.5	6.9
DET	6-2	0.565	76.9	93.3	55.0	27.0	12.9	6.0
JAX	6-2	0.572	75.2	88.7	52.4	25.1	11.7	5.7
SEA	5-2	0.558	38.1	83.0	46.2	22.2	10.5	4.8
NO	4-4	0.536	48.5	62.5	29.7	13.4	6.0	2.6
MIN	4-4	0.527	21.0	60.9	28.6	12.6	5.6	2.4
CLE	4-3	0.531	13.0	54.6	25.8	11.1	4.8	2.1
HOU	3-4	0.543	15.6	39.9	18.9	8.3	3.7	1.7
NYJ	4-3	0.493	11.3	40.4	17.2	6.8	2.7	1.1
TB	3-4	0.483	20.8	34.8	14.3	5.7	2.3	0.9
ATL	4-4	0.447	30.1	42.8	16.0	5.8	2.1	0.7
LAC	3-4	0.511	7.0	22.6	9.8	4.0	1.7	0.7
CIN	4-3	0.471	4.2	22.6	9.0	3.3	1.3	0.5
LAR	3-5	0.483	2.8	17.7	7.2	2.9	1.2	0.4
TEN	3-4	0.482	6.4	18.1	7.3	2.8	1.1	0.4
PIT	4-3	0.424	7.1	31.2	10.9	3.6	1.2	0.4
IND	3-5	0.462	2.7	18.4	6.9	2.5	0.9	0.3
GB	2-5	0.467	1.6	12.4	4.9	1.9	0.7	0.3
WSH	3-5	0.406	0.1	5.8	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.1
DEN	3-5	0.410	0.6	4.3	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
CHI	2-6	0.419	0.5	3.4	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
LV	3-5	0.376	1.1	3.4	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0
CAR	1-6	0.380	0.6	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	2-6	0.339	0.0	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-6	0.321	0.0	0.9	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
ARI	1-7	0.390	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

2023-10-30

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Baltimore over Dallas

We don't usually lose both conference favorites in one day this late in the season. Both lost on Sunday. Baltimore and Dallas were both conference favorites earlier in the season, but not since week 2. And sort of out of nowhere, Philadelphia is the first team to a 99% chance of making the playoffs.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	6-2	0.650	75.7	93.5	67.8	39.6	22.5	12.8
DAL	5-2	0.629	38.0	92.9	63.9	36.5	20.5	10.8
SF	5-3	0.635	59.1	90.0	59.8	34.8	19.7	10.5
KC	6-2	0.618	90.0	95.6	67.7	36.8	19.2	10.3
PHI	7-1	0.587	61.9	99.1	73.5	38.6	19.7	9.5
BUF	5-3	0.646	40.0	78.2	49.4	27.9	15.6	8.8
MIA	6-2	0.593	48.8	86.6	53.5	27.2	13.4	6.9
JAX	6-2	0.572	75.2	88.6	52.6	25.2	11.8	5.7
SEA	5-2	0.558	38.1	83.4	47.2	22.8	10.8	4.9
DET	5-2	0.543	68.9	88.0	47.9	22.3	10.2	4.5
NO	4-4	0.536	48.8	63.3	30.5	13.8	6.3	2.7
MIN	4-4	0.527	27.8	62.5	29.7	13.2	5.9	2.5
CLE	4-3	0.531	13.0	54.4	25.8	11.1	4.8	2.1
HOU	3-4	0.543	15.7	39.7	18.9	8.3	3.7	1.7
NYJ	4-3	0.493	11.2	39.7	16.9	6.7	2.6	1.1
TB	3-4	0.483	20.7	34.8	14.4	5.8	2.3	0.9
ATL	4-4	0.447	29.9	42.9	16.2	5.9	2.2	0.8
LAC	3-4	0.511	7.1	22.4	9.8	4.0	1.7	0.7
CIN	4-3	0.471	4.2	22.4	8.9	3.3	1.3	0.5
LAR	3-5	0.483	2.8	18.1	7.5	3.0	1.2	0.5
TEN	3-4	0.482	6.5	18.0	7.3	2.8	1.1	0.4
PIT	4-3	0.424	7.1	31.1	10.9	3.6	1.2	0.4
IND	3-5	0.462	2.7	17.9	6.7	2.4	0.9	0.3
GB	2-5	0.467	2.4	13.1	5.3	2.0	0.8	0.3
WSH	3-5	0.406	0.0	5.9	2.1	0.7	0.2	0.1
LV	3-4	0.399	2.3	6.8	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.1
CHI	2-6	0.419	0.9	3.8	1.3	0.5	0.2	0.1
DEN	3-5	0.410	0.6	4.2	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
CAR	1-6	0.380	0.6	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	2-6	0.339	0.0	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-6	0.321	0.0	0.9	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
ARI	1-7	0.390	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

2023-10-29

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 9

The Errors:
None! Sort of. 3 games have corrected scores, but with the same results, and I don't use points in these rankings, so Week 8 is still solid. Two of the games were all the way back in Week 6, and one was Week 8.

The Top:
Michigan took the week off and lost their top spot to their top rival and last week's #2, Ohio State. We've got some smaller schools sneaking up the rankings, too, with James Madison at #3 and Liberty at #7.

The Home Team:
Missouri was also off, and fell to #14 for it.

The Bottom:
Former #133 Akron was also off, and Sam Houston State managed to grab that slot from them with a loss.

Winless and Lossless:
There are now 8 undefeated teams, down from 9, with Oklahoma losing to Kansas. As mentioned above, Sam Houston State lost again, so they remain the only winless team.

1	Ohio State	8-0
2	Florida State	8-0
3	James Madison	8-0
4	Michigan	8-0
5	Washington	8-0
6	Georgia	8-0
7	Liberty	8-0
8	Texas	7-1
9	Ole Miss	7-1
10	Air Force	8-0
11	Notre Dame	7-2
12	Alabama	7-1
13	Penn State	7-1
14	Missouri	7-1
15	Oklahoma	7-1
16	Oregon	7-1
17	Louisville	7-1
18	USC	7-2
19	Tulane	7-1
20	Utah	6-2
21	Toledo	7-1
22	Fresno State	7-1
23	UCLA	6-2
24	Jacksonville State	7-2
25	Tennessee	6-2
26	Kansas State	6-2
27	Miami (OH)	7-2
28	Oregon State	6-2
29	Kansas	6-2
30	LSU	6-2
31	Oklahoma State	6-2
32	Troy	6-2
33	Iowa	6-2
34	Georgia State	6-2
35	Miami	6-2
36	North Carolina	6-2
37	Memphis	6-2
38	Georgia Southern	6-2
39	Rutgers	6-2
40	UNLV	6-2
41	Duke	5-3
42	Coastal Carolina	5-3
43	Minnesota	5-3
44	Ohio	6-3
45	Iowa State	5-3
46	Wyoming	5-3
47	Wisconsin	5-3
48	SMU	6-2
49	Arizona	5-3
50	NC State	5-3
51	Nebraska	5-3
52	West Virginia	5-3
53	Kentucky	5-3
54	Boston College	5-3
55	Texas A&M	5-3
56	Florida	5-3
57	Louisiana	5-3
58	Texas State	5-3
59	BYU	5-3
60	New Mexico State	6-3
61	Maryland	5-3
62	Georgia Tech	4-4
63	Northwestern	4-4
64	Auburn	4-4
65	UT San Antonio	5-3
66	Clemson	4-4
67	Bowling Green	4-4
68	Marshall	4-4
69	Western Kentucky	4-4
70	TCU	4-4
71	Colorado	4-4
72	Boise State	4-4
73	Washington State	4-4
74	Northern Illinois	4-4
75	Virginia Tech	4-4
76	San José State	4-5
77	Wake Forest	4-4
78	South Florida	4-4
79	South Alabama	4-4
80	Mississippi State	4-4
81	Syracuse	4-4
82	Old Dominion	4-4
83	Florida Atlantic	4-4
84	Arkansas State	4-4
85	Appalachian State	4-4
86	California	3-5
87	Rice	4-4
88	Illinois	3-5
89	Central Michigan	4-4
90	Texas Tech	3-5
91	UCF	3-5
92	Utah State	3-5
93	Navy	3-4
94	Eastern Michigan	4-5
95	San Diego State	3-5
96	Florida International	4-5
97	Houston	3-5
98	Baylor	3-5
99	Tulsa	3-5
100	Colorado State	3-5
101	South Carolina	2-6
102	Western Michigan	3-6
103	Buffalo	3-5
104	UTEP	3-6
105	Virginia	2-6
106	Michigan State	2-6
107	North Texas	3-5
108	Stanford	2-6
109	Purdue	2-6
110	Arizona State	2-6
111	New Mexico	3-5
112	Nevada	2-6
113	Arkansas	2-6
114	UAB	2-6
115	Indiana	2-6
116	Vanderbilt	2-7
117	Cincinnati	2-6
118	Middle Tennessee	2-6
119	Louisiana Tech	3-6
120	Pittsburgh	2-6
121	Ball State	2-6
122	UMass	2-7
123	Louisiana Monroe	2-6
124	Charlotte	2-6
125	Army	2-6
126	Hawai'i	2-7
127	Temple	2-6
128	Southern Mississippi	1-7
129	Connecticut	1-7
130	East Carolina	1-7
131	Kent State	1-7
132	Akron	1-7
133	Sam Houston State	0-8

2023 History and #1s
Week 1 Jacksonville State and San Diego State
Week 2 Notre Dame
Week 3 Notre Dame
Week 4 Penn State
Week 5 Texas
Week 6 Oklahoma
Week 7 Michigan
Week 8 Michigan