Tenets of Wilson

2022-01-24

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Divisional Sunday

Kansas City over Los Angeles

I debated with a friend of mine about whether divisional playoffs or the conference championships were the best weekend of football all year. I've always maintained it's the conference championships, but by the end of this weekend I had to admit he won this year. I resigned myself to Kansas City losing at least 2 different times, and didn't feel rational holding onto hope after that either. I was a little busy during the LA-Tampa Bay game, and checked in at one point with LA up 27-3, so I didn't make much effort to get back to the game. Then suddenly it was close and then tied late in the 4th quarter, before LA won it at the end of regulation with a Field Goal.

You know the drill. There are 2 games this weekend, then the Super Bowl. So who do I want to win?

Cincinnati at Kansas City (56%)
Both games are rematches of games this season. Cincinnati beat Kansas City just a few weeks ago, but it was a close game and the homefield is flipped. I show Kansas City just barely favored, which should imply a small margin of victory. Of course, I'll be rooting for Kansas City.

San Francisco at Los Angeles (55%)
As a divisional matchup, of course this game is a rematch as well. San Francisco has actually beat LA 6 times in a row, for the last 3 seasons. This will add one more data point to the attempted 3-game season sweeps. The last time I looked this up was January 2018, and dating back to 2002, 2-0 teams were 4-2 in the playoff rematch. That day, New Orleans beat Carolina to make the record 5-2, and just last year, eventual champions Tampa Bay beat New Orleans after losing to them twice in the regular season, making the overall record 5-3. I can't quite decide who to root for in this one. It would be interesting to see a team play the Super Bowl in their home stadium 2 years in a row after it never happening before that. On the other hand, San Francisco makes for a more interesting rematch against either AFC team. They lost to Kansas City just 2 years ago, and Cincinnati has lost to San Francisco in both Super Bowls in their history. Let's go for the Rams.

Rooting Record by Round:
Wildcard: 4-2
Divisional: 3-1

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	12-5	0.696	++	++	++	++	55.6	31.5
LAR	12-5	0.654	++	++	++	++	54.2	25.8
CIN	10-7	0.647	++	++	++	++	44.4	22.7
SF	10-7	0.616	-	++	++	++	45.8	20.0
BUF	11-6	0.824	++	++	++	-	-	-
NE	10-7	0.780	-	++	-	-	-	-
DAL	12-5	0.765	++	++	-	-	-	-
TB	13-4	0.752	++	++	++	-	-	-
IND	9-8	0.654	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	11-6	0.649	-	++	-	-	-	-
GB	13-4	0.641	++	++	++	-	-	-
TEN	12-5	0.624	++	++	++	-	-	-
PHI	9-8	0.605	-	++	-	-	-	-
NO	9-8	0.562	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	7-10	0.557	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	7-10	0.530	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	9-8	0.524	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	8-9	0.498	-	-	-	-	-	-
BAL	8-9	0.490	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	8-9	0.454	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	9-8	0.433	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	9-7-1	0.390	-	++	-	-	-	-
LV	10-7	0.382	-	++	-	-	-	-
WAS	7-10	0.315	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	6-11	0.308	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-12	0.299	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	3-13-1	0.252	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-10	0.241	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	4-13	0.192	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-13	0.192	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-13	0.189	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	3-14	0.145	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a Division: Green Bay (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a Bye: Green Bay (Week 17, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Detroit (Week 11, Sunday)
First teams eliminated from the playoffs: Jacksonville, Houston (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 10, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 12, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 12, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Final] New England over Tampa Bay
[Week 15, Thursday] New England over Tampa Bay
[Week 15, Saturday] New England over Tampa Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Monday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Sunday] Buffalo over Dallas
[Week 16, Final] Buffalo over Dallas
[Week 17, Sunday] Buffalo over Green Bay
[Week 17, Final] Buffalo over Green Bay
[Week 18, Saturday] Buffalo over Dallas
[Week 18, Final] Buffalo over Dallas
[Wildcard Saturday] Buffalo over Dallas
[Wildcard Sunday] Buffalo over Tampa Bay
[Wildcard Monday] Buffalo over Tampa Bay
[Divisional Saturday] Buffalo over Tampa Bay

2022-01-23

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Divisional Saturday

Buffalo over Tampa Bay

Well, we lost both #1 seeds yesterday, and yet my projection did not change. The records and the point differentials didn't line up very well this year, and you can see that Green Bay and Tennessee were deemed to be weaker than Arizona, Dallas, New England, and even Indianapolis, who missed the playoffs.

Now for Sunday's games. All 4 teams are fighting to host their conference championship game, a consequence of both #1 seeds losing yesterday.

Los Angeles at Tampa Bay (62%)
Much like last week, I'll root for the 3 remaining St. Louis Rams. Maybe Johnny Hekker can throw a TD.

Buffalo (67%) at Kansas City
Kansas City is my default home team, so I'll always root for them. Unless there's a fun chaos scenario I guess.

Rooting Record by Round:
Wildcard: 4-2
Divisional: 1-1

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	11-6	0.824	++	++	++	67.1	48.2	32.8
TB	13-4	0.752	++	++	++	61.6	40.3	20.3
CIN	10-7	0.647	++	++	++	++	33.5	15.5
SF	10-7	0.616	-	++	++	++	38.9	13.8
KC	12-5	0.696	++	++	++	32.9	18.3	9.5
LAR	12-5	0.654	++	++	++	38.4	20.8	8.1
NE	10-7	0.780	-	++	-	-	-	-
DAL	12-5	0.764	++	++	-	-	-	-
IND	9-8	0.654	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	11-6	0.649	-	++	-	-	-	-
GB	13-4	0.641	++	++	++	-	-	-
TEN	12-5	0.624	++	++	++	-	-	-
PHI	9-8	0.605	-	++	-	-	-	-
NO	9-8	0.562	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	7-10	0.557	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	7-10	0.530	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	9-8	0.524	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	8-9	0.498	-	-	-	-	-	-
BAL	8-9	0.490	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	8-9	0.454	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	9-8	0.433	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	9-7-1	0.390	-	++	-	-	-	-
LV	10-7	0.382	-	++	-	-	-	-
WAS	7-10	0.315	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	6-11	0.309	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-12	0.299	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	3-13-1	0.252	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-10	0.241	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	4-13	0.193	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-13	0.192	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-13	0.189	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	3-14	0.145	-	-	-	-	-	-

2022-01-18

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Wildcard Monday

Buffalo over Tampa Bay

The first ever Monday night playoff game felt weird to watch. It didn't feel like the playoffs. I'm sure in a few years it'll feel normal, like Thursday night games, or London games. LA sealed the win pretty early and coasted to a win.

So who's up on Saturday? Both #1 seeds, oddly. That seems like something to leave for Sunday, but what do I know?

Cincinnati (53%) at Tennessee
The battle of 2 teams I can never spell because I forget which letters to double. I've actually got the road team favored in this one. Neither team looms large in my football life, so I'll go to my classic tiebreaker, former St. Louis Rams. I don't see any on Cincinnati, but Roger Safford and Janoris Jenkins play for Tennessee.

San Francisco at Green Bay (53%)
In this game, I'm going to root for San Francisco, mostly because George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are fun players to watch.

Rooting Record by Round:
Wildcard: 4-2

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	11-6	0.824	++	++	++	67.1	48.8	33.1
TB	13-4	0.752	++	++	++	61.6	39.5	20.0
KC	12-5	0.696	++	++	++	32.9	18.7	9.6
GB	13-4	0.641	++	++	++	52.7	21.9	8.3
CIN	10-7	0.647	++	++	++	52.5	17.6	8.0
LAR	12-5	0.654	++	++	++	38.4	20.2	8.0
SF	10-7	0.616	-	++	++	47.3	18.4	6.6
TEN	12-5	0.624	++	++	++	47.5	14.9	6.5
NE	10-7	0.780	-	++	-	-	-	-
DAL	12-5	0.765	++	++	-	-	-	-
IND	9-8	0.654	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	11-6	0.649	-	++	-	-	-	-
PHI	9-8	0.605	-	++	-	-	-	-
NO	9-8	0.562	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	7-10	0.557	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	7-10	0.530	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	9-8	0.524	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	8-9	0.498	-	-	-	-	-	-
BAL	8-9	0.490	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	8-9	0.454	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	9-8	0.433	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	9-7-1	0.390	-	++	-	-	-	-
LV	10-7	0.382	-	++	-	-	-	-
WAS	7-10	0.315	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	6-11	0.308	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-12	0.299	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	3-13-1	0.252	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-10	0.241	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	4-13	0.192	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-13	0.192	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-13	0.189	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	3-14	0.145	-	-	-	-	-	-

2022-01-17

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Wildcard Sunday

Buffalo over Tampa Bay

Of the three games yesterday, there were 2 wins by favorites, but the upset took out my projected NFC winner. Kansas City took awhile to get going but took care of Pittsburgh as expected, and Tampa Bay didn't let Philadelphia score until the 4th Quarter down 31-0, so there was no real drama about a comeback. Dallas fell behind to San Francisco early, got within 6, but didn't have quite enough time to finish their comeback drive. Some blame the referee for not spotting the ball fast enough after the final play. If Dallas had another second or two they would have spiked the ball and taken a reasonable shot at the endzone. There always seems to be some controversial rules issue like this in the wildcard round that feels like it will lead to an offseason review of the rules, but unless it happens in the Conference Championships or later, everyone sort of forgets about it. Everyone forgets except for the team on the losing side of it, of course.

There's just one game left this round. (I wanted to say "weekend" there, but you can't include Monday night in a weekend in any context, not even a holiday).

Arizona at Los Angeles (51%)
This is the closest game of the Wildcard round, at least on paper, with LA just barely favored. Maybe that's why it got featured in the first ever Monday playoff game. Both of these teams abandoned St. Louis, so I guess I'll call that part a tie, even though I personally have no memory of the St. Louis Football Cardinals. The division rivals split their regular season games, so there's no 3-win sweep to root for. I suppose I'll root for LA, and the 3 remaining St. Louis Rams, Johnny Hekker, Aaron Donald, and Rob Havenstein.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	11-6	0.824	++	++	++	67.1	48.8	33.1
TB	13-4	0.752	++	++	++	61.9	39.7	20.0
KC	12-5	0.696	++	++	++	32.9	18.7	9.6
GB	13-4	0.641	++	++	++	52.7	21.9	8.3
CIN	10-7	0.647	++	++	++	52.5	17.6	8.0
SF	10-7	0.616	-	++	++	47.3	18.4	6.6
TEN	12-5	0.624	++	++	++	47.5	14.9	6.5
LAR	12-5	0.654	++	++	50.6	19.4	10.2	4.0
ARI	11-6	0.649	-	++	49.4	18.7	9.7	3.8
NE	10-7	0.780	-	++	-	-	-	-
DAL	12-5	0.765	++	++	-	-	-	-
IND	9-8	0.654	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	9-8	0.605	-	++	-	-	-	-
NO	9-8	0.562	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	7-10	0.557	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	7-10	0.530	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	9-8	0.524	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	8-9	0.498	-	-	-	-	-	-
BAL	8-9	0.490	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	8-9	0.454	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	9-8	0.433	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	9-7-1	0.390	-	++	-	-	-	-
LV	10-7	0.382	-	++	-	-	-	-
WAS	7-10	0.315	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	6-11	0.308	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-12	0.299	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	3-13-1	0.252	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-10	0.241	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	4-13	0.192	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-13	0.192	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-13	0.189	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	3-14	0.145	-	-	-	-	-	-

2022-01-16

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Wildcard Saturday

Buffalo over Dallas

Both favorites won yesterday, so in the AFC, at least 3 division winners will play next week and they are one game away from the first week being moot. By beating the second-strongest team, Buffalo's Super Bowl chances have gone up over 50%, and of course the NFC stays the same with no games played yet.

Now let's see who I'll be rooting for on Sunday.

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (66%)
At this point, I kind of want to see just how many rings Tom Brady can amass. I'll root for Tampa Bay in the early game.

San Francisco at Dallas (67%)
This game is tricky. I have reason to dislike both teams, although I was admittedly a Dallas bandwagon fan as a kid, starting somewhere between their first and second Super Bowl win in the 90s. Just to keep the projection going, let's root for Dallas.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (78%)
Kansas City is my adopted home team, even though they play all the way across the state, so I'll root for them today. However, Pittsburgh is probably my second favorite team in the playoffs.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	11-6	0.824	++	++	++	68.1	50.3	33.6
DAL	12-5	0.764	++	++	66.9	37.3	24.1	12.6
TB	13-4	0.752	++	++	66.4	35.1	22.1	11.2
GB	13-4	0.641	++	++	++	51.3	20.6	7.9
CIN	10-7	0.647	++	++	++	47.2	17.4	7.7
KC	12-5	0.696	++	++	78.2	25.8	14.6	7.3
TEN	12-5	0.624	++	++	++	52.9	16.7	7.0
LAR	12-5	0.654	++	++	50.6	23.1	10.4	4.1
ARI	11-6	0.649	-	++	49.4	22.2	9.9	3.9
SF	10-7	0.616	-	++	33.1	15.5	6.5	2.3
PHI	9-8	0.605	-	++	33.6	15.5	6.2	2.2
PIT	9-7-1	0.390	-	++	21.8	6.1	1.0	0.2
NE	10-7	0.780	-	++	-	-	-	-
IND	9-8	0.654	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	9-8	0.562	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	7-10	0.557	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	7-10	0.530	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	9-8	0.524	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	8-9	0.498	-	-	-	-	-	-
BAL	8-9	0.490	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	8-9	0.454	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	9-8	0.433	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	10-7	0.382	-	++	-	-	-	-
WAS	7-10	0.315	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	6-11	0.308	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-12	0.299	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	3-13-1	0.252	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-10	0.241	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	4-13	0.193	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-13	0.192	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-13	0.189	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	3-14	0.145	-	-	-	-	-	-

2022-01-10

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 18, Final

Buffalo over Dallas

The playoffs are all set. As you can see below, New England is the best wildcard team by far, outranking 7 division winners by strength and 6 by their odds to win it all. Pittsburgh and Las Vegas are the only 2 teams with a negative point differential, giving them a strength below .500. Everyone else is at least .605. You may argue that's a strike against the NFL's decision to expand to 14 playoff teams, but both are in the AFC, so one (Las Vegas) would have made it anyway, and Philadelphia would have been left out.

Now, as is tradition, I'll list who I'm rooting for in the upcoming games.

Las Vegas at Cincinnati (75%)
I haven't gotten to watch nearly as much football this year as in the past, so certain teams I just haven't seen play. I try to watch Kansas City games when they're on in the St. Louis market, but I missed their game against Cincinnati, and other than that I don't know that I've seen them play at all. I also don't feel like I saw Las Vegas much, except of course the final game of the season and all the drama about whether the teams would play for a tie. So with no real rooting interest, I'll root for Las Vegas in this one, just to potentially make things easier for Kansas City if they advance, although that brings the up the dreaded "you can't beat a team 3 times in a season" curse. We'll cross that bridge when we come to it.

New England at Buffalo (57%)
This has been a fun battle all year, with the teams overtaking each other for the division and even the conference several times. I would have bet on New England to come out on top after seeing the way Buffalo seemed to fall apart during a few stretches of games. They split their regular season games, so there's no third defeat curse in play. I'll root for Buffalo in this one.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	11-6	0.824	++	++	56.8	39.2	29.4	19.6
DAL	12-5	0.764	++	++	67.0	37.3	24.1	13.0
NE	10-7	0.780	-	++	43.2	29.7	19.5	11.8
TB	13-4	0.752	++	++	66.4	35.1	22.1	11.6
KC	12-5	0.696	++	++	78.2	35.4	17.9	9.0
GB	13-4	0.641	++	++	++	51.4	20.6	8.2
TEN	12-5	0.624	++	++	++	50.5	17.8	7.5
CIN	10-7	0.647	++	++	74.8	33.6	13.2	5.9
LAR	12-5	0.654	++	++	50.6	23.1	10.4	4.3
ARI	11-6	0.649	-	++	49.4	22.2	9.9	4.0
SF	10-7	0.616	-	++	33.0	15.5	6.6	2.5
PHI	9-8	0.605	-	++	33.6	15.5	6.2	2.3
PIT	9-7-1	0.390	-	++	21.8	6.1	1.1	0.2
LV	10-7	0.382	-	++	25.2	5.6	1.0	0.2
IND	9-8	0.654	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	9-8	0.562	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	7-10	0.557	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	7-10	0.530	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	9-8	0.524	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	8-9	0.498	-	-	-	-	-	-
BAL	8-9	0.490	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	8-9	0.454	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	9-8	0.433	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	7-10	0.315	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	6-11	0.309	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-12	0.299	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	3-13-1	0.252	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-10	0.241	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	4-13	0.193	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-13	0.192	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-13	0.189	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	3-14	0.145	-	-	-	-	-	-

2022-01-09

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 18, Saturday

Buffalo over Dallas

I don't quite understand why the NFL decided to have 2 Saturday games after several years of piling all the final week's games onto the final Sunday (previously Week 17). Of course, as Tony Kornheiser likes to quote Don Ohlmeyer, "The answer to all of your questions is money". There wasn't a whole lot at stake in the 2 games played. Kansas City beat Denver, to clinch at least the #2 seed and keep themselves alive for the #1 seed. And Dallas beat Philadelphia, with both teams already in the playoffs. It seems Dallas is still most likely to be the #4 seed, and they couldn't fall below that as a division winner, although with a very high team strength, they are now favored to make the Superbowl again.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	10-6	0.795	94.4	++	59.1	38.5	25.2	16.0
NE	10-6	0.792	5.6	++	56.7	37.3	24.0	15.1
DAL	12-5	0.764	++	++	63.3	38.8	24.5	13.4
GB	13-3	0.655	++	++	++	51.7	22.8	9.5
TB	12-4	0.719	++	++	62.0	32.7	18.1	8.9
KC	12-5	0.696	++	++	66.1	30.7	14.8	7.5
TEN	11-5	0.619	++	++	93.7	39.9	14.5	6.2
LAR	12-4	0.659	71.9	++	52.6	23.3	11.2	4.7
IND	9-7	0.675	-	93.0	43.8	22.0	9.6	4.6
ARI	11-5	0.665	28.1	++	45.0	21.1	10.6	4.5
CIN	10-6	0.652	++	++	50.1	21.1	9.1	4.2
PHI	9-8	0.605	-	++	38.0	16.4	6.7	2.5
SF	9-7	0.610	-	57.3	22.9	9.8	4.1	1.5
LAC	9-7	0.529	-	65.3	21.7	8.5	2.3	0.8
NO	8-8	0.541	-	42.7	16.2	6.2	2.0	0.6
LV	9-7	0.374	-	37.6	7.8	1.6	0.3	0.1
BAL	8-8	0.496	-	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
PIT	8-7-1	0.387	-	2.8	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0
SEA	6-10	0.543	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	7-10	0.530	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	7-9	0.474	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	7-9	0.444	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	8-8	0.413	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-11	0.341	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	6-10	0.334	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	6-10	0.296	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-9	0.257	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	2-13-1	0.239	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	4-12	0.223	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-12	0.217	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-12	0.198	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-14	0.139	-	-	-	-	-	-

2022-01-04

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 17, Final

Buffalo over Green Bay

Pittsburgh beat Cleveland to keep their playoff hopes alive, so we still have 5 teams alive in the AFC. Baltimore and Pittsburgh play next week, which will certainly eliminate one of them. Since one of my good pals is a Pittsburgh fan, I try to keep him up to date on what they need to make the playoffs, and I noticed something that the rest of the internet seemed to also notice. He pointed out that Pittsburgh needed 2 of 3 teams to lose next week; Indianapolis, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas. I agreed, but then looked at the schedule and saw LA vs Las Vegas. Great, so he just needs Indianapolis to lose. But then I realized that a tie by LA and Las Vegas would let them both in instead of Pittsburgh. Then I saw that the game was set for Sunday night, so the teams will have all the information they need to know whether a tie is beneficial. Normally I root for chaos, but two teams intentionally playing to a tie might be bit much even for me.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	10-6	0.795	94.4	++	63.0	40.6	26.4	17.0
NE	10-6	0.792	5.6	++	58.8	38.3	24.5	15.7
DAL	11-5	0.735	++	++	59.0	34.0	20.0	10.1
GB	13-3	0.655	++	++	++	50.9	23.1	9.6
TB	12-4	0.718	++	++	58.0	31.5	17.8	8.7
KC	11-5	0.689	++	++	59.1	27.0	13.0	6.6
TEN	11-5	0.619	++	++	94.4	40.4	14.6	6.3
LAR	12-4	0.658	71.9	++	53.3	24.0	11.7	4.9
ARI	11-5	0.665	28.1	++	46.4	22.1	11.1	4.7
IND	9-7	0.675	-	93.0	42.6	21.7	9.5	4.7
CIN	10-6	0.652	++	++	51.9	21.4	9.3	4.3
PHI	9-7	0.652	-	++	43.0	20.9	9.9	4.1
SF	9-7	0.610	-	57.3	24.1	10.4	4.3	1.6
LAC	9-7	0.529	-	65.3	21.9	8.7	2.4	0.8
NO	8-8	0.541	-	42.7	16.2	6.2	2.1	0.6
LV	9-7	0.374	-	37.6	7.4	1.6	0.3	0.1
BAL	8-8	0.496	-	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
PIT	8-7-1	0.387	-	2.8	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0
SEA	6-10	0.543	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	7-9	0.540	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	7-9	0.474	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	7-9	0.445	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	8-8	0.413	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-11	0.341	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	6-10	0.334	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	6-10	0.296	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-9	0.257	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	2-13-1	0.239	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	4-12	0.223	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-12	0.217	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	4-12	0.198	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-14	0.139	-	-	-	-	-	-