2016-09-29

Bowl Pick 'Em Contest Winnings, Part XXII

College football will be here again before we know it IS HERE, so I've got to get my prize from last season's Bowl Pick 'Em contest at Cards on Cards posted! My prize for a second place tie was a very generously sized box of cards, so I felt a bit overwhelmed even sorting through them. I finally sorted them out by player, and, as usual, I'll plan to post them all eventually, but I might quit halfway through, we'll see.

Part I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII XVIII XIX XX XXI


1996 Topps #232 Matt Morris
1997 Bowman's Best #197 Matt Morris
1998 Donruss #110 Matt Morris
1998 Score Rookie/Traded #RT56 Matt Morris
1998 Score Rookie/Traded #RT203 Ron Gant
1998 Topps #128 Matt Morris
1999 Upper Deck MVP #173 Matt Morris
2002 Topps Total - Award Winners #AW25 Matt Morris
Matt Morris came along just as the Cardinals were starting to get good for the first time in my baseball-watching life. He had several really good years, culminating in a third place finish to Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling for the Cy Young award. He couldn't quite get them to split the vote and sneak in there.

1999 Topps #131 Ron Gant
1998 Upper Deck #203 Ron Gant
1998 Fleer Tradition #380 Ron Gant
Ron Gant was in my first in-person baseball game, although on the Braves at that time. In my head it feels like he was a big part of the team for a long time, but he was only here 3 years, and played 5 seasons afterwards and 9 before.






2016-09-27

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 3, Final

Philadelphia over New England

Before last night, Atlanta was at an even .500 strength, having scored exactly as many points as they allowed. New Orleans was just a few teams behind them, despite being 0-2. They've moved in opposite directions after last night, with New Orleans joining the rest of the 0-3 teams.

Of course, as neither team last night was near the top, nor even share a division with a team at the top, the projection remains the same.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI3-00.58960.0279.7865.4237.4621.1711.91
NE3-00.56671.2582.2567.1637.3720.5110.84
MIN3-00.55765.9780.6964.9634.7818.159.61
DEN3-00.54946.7273.2756.3530.0715.848.10
KC2-10.54427.5455.8338.6120.1710.505.32
SEA2-10.54442.5154.8537.9819.439.845.09
BAL3-00.53562.3976.5858.3230.1515.317.61
DAL2-10.53320.3148.3231.6015.707.863.98
ARI1-20.53124.8037.1423.9611.855.832.94
SD1-20.5249.4826.7616.448.174.081.98
ATL2-10.51845.8952.8133.4416.117.713.79
GB2-10.51622.3346.1429.3314.096.743.29
CAR1-20.51130.2736.6421.4310.114.772.31
BUF1-20.50611.5924.0814.166.793.271.53
NYG2-10.50515.8040.9725.2311.755.522.64
OAK2-10.50216.2639.0824.7811.795.612.60
PIT2-10.49827.2744.9128.3813.406.302.90
MIA1-20.4948.8022.8313.176.122.871.31
DET1-20.4939.3822.3112.885.882.681.25
SF1-20.48212.7720.6911.495.092.261.03
IND1-20.47826.8732.5717.677.873.521.55
NO0-30.4738.0610.565.352.311.000.45
NYJ1-20.4698.3616.248.933.971.770.76
HOU2-10.46941.7547.2626.3011.495.022.17
CIN1-20.4617.7315.078.113.521.530.65
WAS1-20.4603.8713.537.123.011.290.56
TEN1-20.46022.0526.3913.595.812.501.06
LA2-10.45919.9231.1517.787.493.141.36
TB1-20.45315.7819.409.653.991.650.71
JAC0-30.4469.3310.985.122.110.880.36
CLE0-30.4462.615.902.921.210.510.21
CHI0-30.4322.325.022.390.950.380.15

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England

2016-09-26

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Philadelphia over New England

The teams stayed the same but the projected result flipped as Philadelphia strengthened themselves even beyond New England. We've got 5 3-0 teams and 4 winless teams, with New Orleans still to play Monday. Jacksonville and Chicago face off in Week 6, so we'll get down to at most 2 winless teams by then. LA climbed out of the cellar with another win, and now Chicago is the weakest team in the league.

As usual, I tend to forget to note the first milestone I track each year, the first team to reach a 10% chance of winning. That happened Thursday with New England crossing that barrier.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI3-00.58960.2280.1066.0437.9221.4912.08
NE3-00.56671.2182.2167.1237.3320.4810.84
MIN3-00.55765.8780.7065.3135.0818.339.71
DEN3-00.54946.6973.2456.3130.0515.838.11
KC2-10.54427.5355.7838.5720.1510.485.32
SEA2-10.54442.4754.9038.2419.639.965.15
BAL3-00.53462.3476.5458.2930.1315.307.62
DAL2-10.53320.1948.4531.8515.867.954.03
ARI1-20.53024.7837.1824.1611.985.912.98
SD1-20.5249.4826.7416.438.164.071.98
GB2-10.51622.5446.6129.8414.386.893.36
CAR1-20.51132.6738.0622.2710.524.962.40
BUF1-20.50611.6024.0714.166.793.271.53
NYG2-10.50515.7441.2825.6111.965.632.69
OAK2-10.50216.3039.1624.8311.825.622.61
ATL1-10.50030.8236.5621.7110.044.632.19
PIT2-10.49827.2944.9128.3913.406.302.91
MIA1-20.4948.8122.8313.176.132.871.31
DET1-20.4939.2622.2112.935.922.711.26
NO0-20.49219.3822.9612.665.732.601.21
SF1-20.48212.7920.7911.635.172.301.05
IND1-20.47826.8632.5617.687.883.521.56
NYJ1-20.4698.3916.268.953.971.770.77
HOU2-10.46941.7547.2826.3311.515.032.18
CIN1-20.4627.7515.108.123.531.540.66
WAS1-20.4603.8513.637.233.061.310.57
TEN1-20.46022.0626.4013.615.822.511.06
LA2-10.45919.9631.2718.027.623.211.39
TB1-20.45317.1420.2510.074.171.730.74
JAC0-30.4469.3410.995.132.110.880.36
CLE0-30.4462.625.912.931.220.510.21
CHI0-30.4322.335.062.440.970.380.16

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia

2016-09-25

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 4

Texas A&M won and held on to the #1 spot. Tennessee got a big boost by beating now-3-1 Florida, and rose up to #2.

Missouri put up 79 (!) against FCS Delaware State, but score doesn't affect my rankings, so they're still down at #66.

At the bottom, 3 winless teams won, including previous #128 Iowa State. Florida International now has to try to play their way up from the bottom.

1Texas A&M4-0
2Tennessee4-0
3Clemson4-0
4Wake Forest4-0
5Michigan4-0
6Louisville4-0
7Western Michigan4-0
8Wisconsin4-0
9Alabama4-0
10Washington4-0
11Arizona State4-0
12Nebraska4-0
13Houston4-0
14Utah4-0
15Baylor4-0
16Florida State3-1
17Minnesota3-0
18Navy3-0
19Stanford3-0
20North Carolina3-1
21West Virginia3-0
22Georgia Tech3-1
23Colorado3-1
24Virginia Tech3-1
25Georgia3-1
26Ohio State3-0
27Arkansas3-1
28Boise State3-0
29Florida3-1
30Georgia Southern3-1
31San Diego State3-0
32TCU3-1
33Cincinnati3-1
34Southern Mississippi3-1
35Miami3-0
36Troy3-1
37Tulsa3-1
38South Florida3-1
39Memphis3-0
40Iowa3-1
41Central Michigan3-1
42Air Force3-0
43Middle Tennessee3-1
44Eastern Michigan3-1
45Ole Miss2-2
46Maryland3-0
47Ball State3-1
48Toledo3-0
49Army3-1
50LSU2-2
51Texas Tech2-1
52Pittsburgh2-2
53Tulane2-2
54Appalachian State2-2
55Vanderbilt2-2
56California2-2
57Purdue2-1
58Kansas State2-1
59Auburn2-2
60Indiana2-1
61Louisiana Lafayette2-2
62Oklahoma State2-2
63Penn State2-2
64Syracuse2-2
65SMU2-2
66Missouri2-2
67Kentucky2-2
68Akron2-2
T-69NC State2-1
T-69South Carolina2-2
71UCLA2-2
72Colorado State2-2
73East Carolina2-2
74Boston College2-2
75Temple2-2
76South Alabama2-2
77Arizona2-2
78Oregon2-2
79Michigan State2-1
80Nevada2-2
81Texas2-1
82Mississippi State2-2
83Duke2-2
84Idaho2-2
85Connecticut2-2
86Wyoming2-2
87Rutgers2-2
88UCF2-2
89Ohio2-2
90Old Dominion2-2
91Western Kentucky2-2
92Utah State2-2
93North Texas2-2
94Texas State1-2
95USC1-3
96Washington State1-2
97Oregon State1-2
98Buffalo1-2
99Oklahoma1-2
100Northwestern1-3
101BYU1-3
102Bowling Green1-3
103Illinois1-2
104Marshall1-2
105Charlotte1-3
106Hawai'i1-3
107Florida Atlantic1-3
108Kent State1-3
109Louisiana Monroe1-2
110Virginia1-3
111Louisiana Tech1-3
112Fresno State1-3
113UTEP1-3
T-114Kansas1-2
T-114Notre Dame1-3
116San Jose State1-3
117Iowa State1-3
118UNLV1-3
119Massachusetts1-3
120Texas San Antonio1-3
121New Mexico State1-3
122New Mexico1-2
123Georgia State0-3
124Northern Illinois0-4
125Miami (OH)0-4
126Arkansas State0-4
127Rice0-4
128Florida Intl0-4

2016 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M

2016-09-23

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 3, Thursday

New England over Philadelphia

For 3 of the first 4 posts this year, Houston was the AFC favorite. They've fallen considerably after a 27-0 loss to New England, who takes over the favorite position. In the NFC, nothing much changed since the Thursday game was AFC only, ,so Philadelphia is hanging onto the top spot, at least until they face a truer test of Pittsburgh this week.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE3-00.56671.0082.5767.1737.5620.7911.37
PHI2-00.55447.1268.0551.9628.3115.348.14
ARI1-10.54942.0455.8140.3121.6411.546.06
PIT2-00.54746.2066.9149.6326.4713.967.38
BAL2-00.52939.2062.2744.3422.6911.535.88
MIN2-00.52951.0365.8448.6225.1012.846.49
SD1-10.52822.8041.9127.8614.147.133.63
DEN2-00.52842.7261.3944.7422.8611.525.86
CAR1-10.52840.0150.9134.9417.869.084.58
SF1-10.51630.6342.8227.9113.946.943.42
NYG2-00.51134.2358.8740.9520.219.984.86
NYJ1-10.50818.6835.2421.9110.655.212.55
DAL1-10.50614.9133.6621.0410.275.032.43
DET1-10.50523.4638.9725.1812.285.972.87
GB1-10.50219.0435.0321.9310.625.132.46
ATL1-10.50024.7034.2121.3910.314.952.36
KC1-10.49817.9932.8920.359.694.592.20
NO0-20.49214.7720.4611.905.632.661.25
OAK1-10.49216.4931.3219.459.134.262.02
CIN1-10.48511.1427.4116.147.453.451.61
TEN1-10.48033.1240.4023.8210.794.872.25
MIA0-20.4794.9213.577.433.381.550.71
SEA1-10.47916.2425.7315.417.113.281.49
BUF0-20.4765.4112.216.663.021.380.63
IND0-20.47516.1220.6611.104.962.221.01
HOU2-10.46937.4244.3725.3711.194.932.22
WAS0-20.4603.7410.075.462.421.070.47
TB1-10.45920.5228.1215.866.983.061.34
JAC0-20.45713.3417.218.943.831.650.72
CLE0-20.4563.469.665.092.200.960.42
CHI0-20.4556.4712.246.572.861.250.54
LA1-10.44111.0919.2210.564.461.890.79

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston

2016-09-22

Bowl Pick 'Em Contest Winnings, Part XXI

College football will be here again before we know it IS HERE, so I've got to get my prize from last season's Bowl Pick 'Em contest at Cards on Cards posted! My prize for a second place tie was a very generously sized box of cards, so I felt a bit overwhelmed even sorting through them. I finally sorted them out by player, and, as usual, I'll plan to post them all eventually, but I might quit halfway through, we'll see.

Part I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII XVIII XIX XX

Today's post is all John Mabry, a guy who my dad always seemed to call John Mayberry. I was surprised to learn later in life that was the name of an actual player, too. But I don't think he was confusing them, he just got the name wrong.

1995 Fleer #502 John Mabry
1995 Fleer Ultra #432 John Mabry
1995 Pinnacle #151 John Mabry
1995 Upper Deck Collector's Choice #21 John Mabry
1996 Donruss #253 John Mabry
1996 Leaf #197 John Mabry
1996 Score #293 John Mabry
1996 Topps Stadium Club #46 John Mabry

I think every one of these Mabry cards was on my wantlist, so these were probably a purposeful inclusion rather than random collection of Cardinals duplicates. It's always nice to knock a few cards off my gigantic list.

1997 Metal Universe #233 John Mabry
1997 Topps #102 John Mabry
1997 Upper Deck #163 John Mabry
This is the first 1997 Metal Universe card I've ever posted, though I do have about 20 in my collection. It was certainly flashy compared to the Topps and Upper Deck of its era, though I think that Upper Deck design has aged pretty well and would still be a viable design in the current day.

2016-09-20

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 2, Final

Philadelphia over Houston

With a strong win over Chicago, Philadelphia is now the top team by strength, and Chicago is almost to the bottom, just above Los Angeles. Pittsburgh also lost its slight lead in the AFC, because their next opponent is...Philadelphia. That slightly lowered chance of a win knocked their odds just below Houston to win the AFC. Houston has already played Chicago, so didn't benefit at all from their fall.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI2-00.55447.1468.1452.0828.3915.388.23
ARI1-10.54941.4055.6240.2521.6011.526.10
PIT2-00.54746.4267.5950.2426.8714.327.57
HOU2-00.53860.7970.8452.4727.5214.337.45
BAL2-00.52939.4063.0244.9623.0811.846.05
MIN2-00.52950.8965.1647.9024.7312.656.45
SD1-10.52822.3540.7726.9113.747.003.56
DEN2-00.52843.0461.1344.3322.7211.575.88
CAR1-10.52840.0551.0035.0517.929.124.63
NE2-00.51753.4863.8844.3822.1611.015.48
SF1-10.51630.9743.5328.5114.257.103.53
NYG2-00.51134.2358.9941.0520.2610.014.92
NYJ1-10.50828.9840.5325.2212.326.022.94
DAL1-10.50614.9133.7521.1010.315.052.46
DET1-10.50523.3838.2324.6412.025.852.84
GB1-10.50218.9734.2321.3710.355.002.42
ATL1-10.50024.6934.2621.4310.334.962.39
KC1-10.49818.4533.0020.219.674.632.22
NO0-20.49214.7720.5011.935.652.671.26
OAK1-10.49216.1530.3118.678.824.161.97
CIN1-10.48510.7026.8915.777.333.431.60
TEN1-10.48021.4933.1619.709.054.161.92
MIA0-20.4798.4715.408.473.881.780.82
SEA1-10.47916.4126.2815.807.293.361.54
BUF0-20.4769.0814.788.003.641.660.76
IND0-20.4759.7615.798.613.921.790.82
WAS0-20.4603.7310.095.472.421.080.47
TB1-10.45920.5028.1315.886.983.061.35
JAC0-20.4577.9612.986.842.991.310.58
CLE0-20.4563.479.925.212.271.000.44
CHI0-20.4556.7712.426.672.911.270.55
LA1-10.44111.2219.6910.874.591.940.82


[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota


2016-09-19

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Pittsburgh over Minnesota

Minnesota's 2-0 and my system's favorite to win the NFC, but of course it doesn't know that Adrian Peterson has a torn up knee now. Pittsburgh took over the AFC lead from Houston, though just barely, because the AFC North is currently more competitive than the AFC South.

At the bottom of the league, the Los Angeles is still the worst team by strength, even though they are 1-1. That win has them slightly more favored to win the Superbowl than 6 0-2 teams that are ostensibly stronger teams. Cleveland is currently in the worst position, just 0.44% likely to win the Superbowl, and now they're down to QB #3 with two consecutive weeks of injuries.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI1-10.54941.4655.9640.8522.1311.946.33
PIT2-00.54746.4567.8550.4827.0014.387.68
HOU2-00.53861.1371.0152.5727.5714.367.53
BAL2-00.52939.4463.3245.2123.2111.906.14
MIN2-00.52948.1064.0047.4524.7112.796.52
PHI1-00.52935.4953.0437.7319.5910.135.16
SD1-10.52822.3540.7326.8713.726.993.60
DEN2-00.52843.0561.1044.3022.7011.565.94
CAR1-10.52840.0251.2735.6118.389.464.81
NE2-00.51753.4963.8744.3522.1411.005.53
SF1-10.51630.6143.4428.7514.517.313.63
NYG2-00.51141.1761.0143.5721.7710.835.33
NYJ1-10.50828.9740.4825.1712.296.002.97
DAL1-10.50618.4835.6022.6811.205.522.69
DET1-10.50521.8237.4324.3612.005.902.87
GB1-10.50217.7133.5421.1610.355.062.44
ATL1-10.50025.0534.8922.0710.745.222.51
KC1-10.49818.4532.9820.189.654.612.23
NO0-20.49214.7520.6912.165.822.781.32
OAK1-10.49216.1530.2818.648.814.151.99
CIN1-10.48510.7127.1415.927.403.461.63
CHI0-10.48012.3823.4614.166.623.091.42
TEN1-10.48021.3232.8519.488.964.121.92
MIA0-20.4798.4715.388.453.871.780.83
SEA1-10.47916.6926.8716.327.613.551.63
BUF0-20.4769.0814.767.983.631.660.77
IND0-20.4759.6715.598.493.861.760.81
WAS0-20.4604.8710.926.022.691.210.53
TB1-10.45920.1828.0116.017.123.161.39
JAC0-20.4577.8712.806.732.941.290.57
CLE0-20.4563.409.875.172.260.990.44
LA1-10.44111.2419.8811.104.752.030.86


[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston

2016-09-18

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 3

29 teams are 3-0, and 8 more are 2-0, but Texas A&M takes the lead at #1

As far as I know, Missouri was supposed to get slaughtered by Georgia. They still lost, but only by one point. But, in my rankings, the score doesn't matter, just the wins do, so they still fall to #76, and Georgia rises all the way to #2. When the SEC rises to the top, I always feel like I should point out that there is no subjectivity in my rankings; the system has no idea that Texas A&M and Georgia are in the same conference, or that conferences even exist. It's just a pig-pile of teams all rated against who they played.

At the bottom of the pack, Iowa State held onto last place. There are still 9 winless teams, though, so that certainly has potential to change for them with a win.

1Texas A&M3-0
2Georgia3-0
3Nebraska3-0
T-4Central Michigan3-0
T-4Ohio State3-0
6Wisconsin3-0
7Alabama3-0
8Louisville3-0
9Tennessee3-0
10Navy3-0
11Arkansas3-0
12Michigan3-0
13Arizona State3-0
14Utah3-0
15Wake Forest3-0
16Georgia Tech3-0
17Washington3-0
18Houston3-0
19San Diego State3-0
20Clemson3-0
21Army3-0
22Miami3-0
23South Florida3-0
24Western Michigan3-0
25Florida3-0
26Georgia Southern3-0
27Baylor3-0
28Toledo3-0
29Maryland3-0
30Pittsburgh2-1
31West Virginia2-0
32LSU2-1
33Boise State2-0
34Minnesota2-0
35Tulsa2-1
36Texas Tech2-1
37California2-1
38Stanford2-0
39East Carolina2-1
40North Carolina2-1
41Colorado2-1
42UCLA2-1
43Oklahoma State2-1
44Florida State2-1
45Penn State2-1
46South Carolina2-1
47Virginia Tech2-1
48Akron2-1
49NC State2-1
50Colorado State2-1
51Texas2-1
52Louisiana Lafayette2-1
53SMU2-1
54Indiana2-0
55Michigan State2-0
56Troy2-1
57Cincinnati2-1
58Arizona2-1
59Wyoming2-1
60Nevada2-1
61TCU2-1
62Oregon2-1
63Southern Mississippi2-1
64Memphis2-0
65Middle Tennessee2-1
66Western Kentucky2-1
67Connecticut2-1
68Rutgers2-1
69Air Force2-0
70Ball State2-1
71Iowa2-1
72Eastern Michigan2-1
73Utah State2-1
74BYU1-2
75Temple1-2
76Missouri1-2
77Vanderbilt1-2
78USC1-2
79Ole Miss1-2
80Texas State1-1
81Kansas State1-1
82Oklahoma1-2
83Notre Dame1-2
84Syracuse1-2
85Appalachian State1-2
86South Alabama1-2
87San Jose State1-2
88Mississippi State1-2
89Tulane1-2
90Washington State1-2
91Oregon State1-1
92Kent State1-2
93Boston College1-2
94Idaho1-2
95Northwestern1-2
96Florida Atlantic1-2
97Auburn1-2
98Purdue1-1
99UTEP1-2
100Bowling Green1-2
101UCF1-2
102UNLV1-2
103Louisiana Tech1-2
104Fresno State1-2
105Marshall1-1
106North Texas1-2
107Kentucky1-2
108Illinois1-2
109Hawai'i1-3
110Charlotte1-2
111Texas San Antonio1-2
112Ohio1-2
113Duke1-2
114Louisiana Monroe1-2
115Old Dominion1-2
116Massachusetts1-2
117Kansas1-2
118New Mexico1-2
119New Mexico State1-2
120Northern Illinois0-3
121Buffalo0-2
122Rice0-3
123Georgia State0-3
124Miami (OH)0-3
125Virginia0-3
126Florida Intl0-3
127Arkansas State0-3
128Iowa State0-3

2016 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas

2016-09-16

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 2, Thursday

San Francisco over Houston

There was no change to my projection with two 0-1 teams facing off, and the winner not running away with the game. Buffalo actually got stronger, by not losing this game as badly as their first one. Their overall Superbowl chances went down though, as you would expect from an 0-2 start, 0-1 in the tiebreaker-crucial divisional games.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF1-00.53142.7958.0742.1022.1711.656.12
PHI1-00.52940.4454.4538.8020.3110.605.54
PIT1-00.52732.8851.6236.9319.3410.135.26
BAL1-00.52331.8951.4736.5818.999.865.08
HOU1-00.52044.0554.7238.5819.8910.235.23
MIN1-00.51832.0049.3634.4617.639.014.61
TB1-00.51143.4754.3037.3918.849.474.78
KC1-00.50931.5048.0833.2916.798.444.23
SEA1-00.50831.8646.9032.0416.058.044.04
NYJ1-10.50831.6241.7226.9613.556.803.40
GB1-00.50728.6145.4130.8915.447.703.86
DET1-00.50528.3345.1830.6315.237.563.77
NE1-00.50438.7249.0233.1616.538.234.08
NYG1-00.50233.3548.0232.3716.007.903.92
DEN1-00.50228.3644.3330.2315.027.443.67
CIN1-00.50225.6144.3630.0914.937.433.67
OAK1-00.50128.1744.0029.8814.817.333.61
NO0-10.49920.6030.1618.919.264.542.24
CAR0-10.49820.5530.0718.819.204.492.21
DAL0-10.49813.8324.7215.247.463.651.80
ARI0-10.49615.8727.4817.218.394.102.01
IND0-10.49519.3828.6917.918.764.282.08
JAC0-10.49319.2428.5717.778.644.202.04
MIA0-10.49219.8928.8217.898.674.202.03
SD0-10.49111.9723.4614.467.013.391.64
ATL0-10.48915.3924.3014.667.033.371.63
TEN0-10.48217.3426.1415.907.553.581.70
CHI0-10.48011.0621.6713.086.172.911.38
BUF0-20.4769.7615.058.473.971.860.87
WAS0-10.47312.3721.4312.695.892.741.28
CLE0-10.4719.6219.9511.915.542.581.20
LA0-10.4699.4818.4810.734.932.271.05


[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston

2016-09-15

Bowl Pick 'Em Contest Winnings, Part XX

College football will be here again before we know it IS HERE, so I've got to get my prize from last season's Bowl Pick 'Em contest at Cards on Cards posted! My prize for a second place tie was a very generously sized box of cards, so I felt a bit overwhelmed even sorting through them. I finally sorted them out by player, and, as usual, I'll plan to post them all eventually, but I might quit halfway through, we'll see.

Part I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII XVIII XIX


No Cardinals prize package would be complete without some Albert Pujols cards. This one still isn't complete with it though.

2002 Topps #719 Albert Pujols
2002 Topps Total - Total Topps #TT36 Albert Pujols
2004 Playoff Honors #177 Albert Pujols
2007 Topps #130 Albert Pujols
2008 Upper Deck First Edition Update - Star Quest Common #SQ-32 Albert Pujols
2009 Upper Deck Icons #5 Albert Pujols
2010 Topps - Factory Set Bonus #RS5 Albert Pujols
Almost all of these were new cards to my collection, except the Upper Deck Icons, of which I oddly enough already have 2, and I've also got 3 Ryan Ludwicks from that set. The Factory set insert is a good pickup since it's one I don't think I'd encounter much in the wild (the wild of card shows, that is), and if I did, I'd probably flip past it thinking it's just a base card.

2007 Bowman #175 Albert Pujols
2010 Upper Deck - Tape Measure Shots #TMS-11 Albert Pujols
2015 Topps Update - Highlight of the Year #H-89 Albert Pujols
That 2015 Update card offers me assurances that I can still get new Pujols Cardinals cards for the rest of his career and beyond.








2016-09-13

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 1

San Francisco over Houston

Everyone has played a game, so let's start projecting. We're back to Roman numerals this year, though I think LI still looks odd for a Superbowl and they should stick to Arabic numerals until 54/LIV or so

 Here's a quick rundown originally taken from 2014's introductory post.
Each year I project the Superbowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.
I no longer have a home team to follow, as the Rams have moved to Los Angeles, as I'm sure you're aware. I'm honestly a little conflicted. I'd like to root for the players and coaches that I rooted for less than a year ago, but I'd really like to root against anything Stan Kroenke touches, so for now I'm just watching for some good football games. The networks will prioritize the Chiefs, Bears, and Rams on Sunday afternoons from what I read.

San Francisco is the Week 1 favorite for the second year in a row, but that's because once again they had the biggest week 1 win. The way my system works, a shutout gives them the same resulting strength, whether it was a 2-0 or 100-0 win. They'll eventually give up some points, and things will smooth out. In any case, that's why teams are regressed back to .500 pretty sharply in the first few weeks, and less so over time. All the way at the bottom, the Rams are still in just slightly better shape than they were in 2014 Week 1.

A lot of the other games this week were very close, so you'll see a lot of teams clustered around .500

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF1-00.53142.7958.1442.1622.2011.676.14
PHI1-00.52940.4354.4138.7720.2910.595.54
PIT1-00.52732.9051.8137.1419.4810.235.30
BAL1-00.52331.9651.7336.8919.199.985.14
HOU1-00.52043.9654.7038.6319.9710.295.26
MIN1-00.51831.9849.3034.4117.618.994.62
TB1-00.51143.4354.2537.3518.829.464.79
KC1-00.50931.6048.2633.4716.928.534.27
SEA1-00.50831.8646.9732.1016.088.054.05
GB1-00.50728.6145.3730.8415.427.693.86
DET1-00.50528.3345.1430.6115.227.553.78
NE1-00.50440.2249.9433.8616.908.434.18
NYG1-00.50233.3347.9932.3415.987.903.93
DEN1-00.50228.3344.3930.3415.107.503.71
CIN1-00.50225.5044.3230.1014.977.463.69
OAK1-00.50128.1044.1130.0314.937.403.65
NO0-10.49920.6130.1518.909.264.542.24
NYJ0-10.49821.7029.6918.399.054.452.18
CAR0-10.49820.5630.0618.809.194.492.21
DAL0-10.49813.8424.7115.247.463.651.80
ARI0-10.49615.8627.5417.258.424.102.01
IND0-10.49519.4728.8518.068.854.332.11
JAC0-10.49319.2328.6617.898.724.252.06
MIA0-10.49220.7929.5418.378.924.332.09
SD0-10.49111.9723.5414.557.063.431.66
ATL0-10.48915.4124.3114.677.043.381.63
TEN0-10.48217.3426.1815.987.613.621.71
CHI0-10.48011.0921.6913.096.182.911.38
BUF0-10.47717.2924.1514.276.723.161.48
WAS0-10.47312.3921.4412.715.902.741.28
CLE0-10.4719.6420.1112.045.602.611.21
LA0-10.4699.4918.5410.764.952.281.06

2016-09-11

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 2

It feels good to have all 128 FBS teams represented in the rankings now. Welcome aboard, Marshall. I don't even have any ties this week. I don't have very good metrics for this, but using the raw numbers I use to rank each week, the drop from #1 to #2 is almost 200 points, and the drop from 2 to 7 is about 200 points too, so Texas is somewhat solid #1...for whatever that's worth in Week 2.


1Texas2-0
2Wisconsin2-0
3West Virginia2-0
4Tennessee2-0
5San Diego State2-0
6East Carolina2-0
7Washington2-0
8Colorado2-0
9Alabama2-0
10Florida State2-0
11Ohio State2-0
12Utah2-0
13Arkansas2-0
14Texas A&M2-0
15Pittsburgh2-0
16Louisville2-0
17Minnesota2-0
18Nebraska2-0
19Wake Forest2-0
20Navy2-0
21Georgia Southern2-0
22Georgia2-0
23Clemson2-0
24Arizona State2-0
25Miami2-0
26Houston2-0
27Baylor2-0
28Boise State2-0
29Army2-0
30Oregon2-0
31Michigan2-0
32Cincinnati2-0
33Georgia Tech2-0
34Indiana2-0
35Central Michigan2-0
36South Florida2-0
37Southern Mississippi2-0
38Maryland2-0
39Western Michigan2-0
40Air Force2-0
41Florida2-0
42Toledo2-0
43Iowa2-0
44South Alabama1-1
45Tulsa1-1
46Notre Dame1-1
47UTEP1-1
48Idaho1-1
49Texas State1-0
50BYU1-1
51Ole Miss1-1
52LSU1-1
53Virginia Tech1-1
54Mississippi State1-1
55Akron1-1
56TCU1-1
57Colorado State1-1
58UCLA1-1
59Appalachian State1-1
60Missouri1-1
61NC State1-1
62California1-1
63USC1-1
64SMU1-1
65North Carolina1-1
66Texas Tech1-1
67San Jose State1-1
68Louisiana Lafayette1-1
69Purdue1-1
70Florida Atlantic1-1
71Oklahoma1-1
72Temple1-1
73South Carolina1-1
74Stanford1-0
75Nevada1-1
76New Mexico State1-1
77Western Kentucky1-1
78Syracuse1-1
79Michigan State1-0
80Rutgers1-1
81Wyoming1-1
82Arizona1-1
83Duke1-1
84Penn State1-1
85Ohio1-1
86Connecticut1-1
87Vanderbilt1-1
88Auburn1-1
89Marshall1-0
90Memphis1-0
91Louisiana Tech1-1
92Bowling Green1-1
93Charlotte1-1
94Boston College1-1
95Ball State1-1
96Tulane1-1
97Fresno State1-1
98Troy1-1
99UCF1-1
100New Mexico1-1
101Oklahoma State1-1
102North Texas1-1
103Middle Tennessee1-1
104UNLV1-1
105Illinois1-1
106Texas San Antonio1-1
107Old Dominion1-1
108Eastern Michigan1-1
109Utah State1-1
110Hawai'i1-2
111Louisiana Monroe1-1
112Kansas1-1
113Oregon State0-1
114Buffalo0-1
115Virginia0-2
116Florida Intl0-2
117Kansas State0-1
118Northwestern0-2
119Kentucky0-2
120Rice0-2
121Washington State0-2
122Northern Illinois0-2
123Kent State0-2
124Arkansas State0-2
125Massachusetts0-2
126Georgia State0-2
127Miami (OH)0-2
128Iowa State0-2

2016 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California

2016-09-10

Bowl Pick 'Em Contest Winnings, Part XIX

College football will be here again before we know it IS HERE, so I've got to get my prize from last season's Bowl Pick 'Em contest at Cards on Cards posted! My prize for a second place tie was a very generously sized box of cards, so I felt a bit overwhelmed even sorting through them. I finally sorted them out by player, and, as usual, I'll plan to post them all eventually, but I might quit halfway through, we'll see.

Part I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII XVIII


1992 Fleer Ultra - All Stars #15 Tom Pagnozzi
1993 Studio #198 Tom Pagnozzi
1994 Pinnacle #439 Tom Pagnozzi
1995 Pinnacle #37 Tom Pagnozzi
1995 Upper Deck Collector's Choice #193 Tom Pagnozzi
1996 Donruss #278 Tom Pagnozzi
1996 Topps #131 Tom Pagnozzi
1998 Topps #431 Tom Pagnozzi
Tom Pagnozzi was a member of the Cardinals when I started watching baseball, and never went to another team, so he was one of my favorite players as a kid.

1995 Fleer Ultra - Award Winners #10 Tom Pagnozzi
1996 Score #403 Tom Pagnozzi
1997 Topps Stadium Club #274 Tom Pagnozzi

Being a catcher also bumps him up on my favorite players list, although I just learned that in 1988 he actually started more games at first than catcher. He had to wait around awhile for Tony Pena to leave and Todd Zeile to be moved to third before he became the everyday catcher.




2016-09-08

Bowl Pick 'Em Contest Winnings, Part XVIII

College football will be here again before we know it IS HERE, so I've got to get my prize from last season's Bowl Pick 'Em contest at Cards on Cards posted! My prize for a second place tie was a very generously sized box of cards, so I felt a bit overwhelmed even sorting through them. I finally sorted them out by player, and, as usual, I'll plan to post them all eventually, but I might quit halfway through, we'll see.

Part I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII


1970 Topps #503 Dal Maxvill
1973 Topps #269 Tim McCarver
1975 Topps
#296 Alan Foster
#610 Ron Hunt
#649 Jack Heidemann
1980 Topps #563 Will McEnaney
2013 Panini Cooperstown
#6 Rogers Hornsby
#35 Joe Medwick
#39 Dizzy Dean
I've got some old cards and old players today, with Panini's 2013 Cooperstown set rounding out the post. I've met Dal Maxvill and Ron Hunt at autograph signings, and now I realize I really need to track down a Tim McCarver signing sometime. The older cards are pretty great, regardless of the slightly rough condition on some of them.


#246 St. Louis Cardinals
This team, presumably actually the 1974 team, finished second in the NL East, long before anyone uttered the word Wildcard in baseball, so missed the playoffs. 1975 was even worse, with a 4th place finish.


2016-09-06

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

It's algorithm season for me again. Here's how these work, lightly edited from last year's week 1 post. in turn mostly taken from 2014, and so on:

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers".  As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated.  The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that.  I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength.  I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop.  So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001.  I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings.  It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team. (i.e., an NAIA team will be listed when they play against a Div III team, but the rest of their games won't be listed, resulting in a lot of 0-1 teams mixed into my system).  I then filter the final results to only the FBS schools.

In week 1, there are only 2 possible situations for a team*. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week!

* - Normally this is true, but this year, Hawai'i decided to have a pre-Week-1 game, as well as one in Week 1. So they're 0-2, and there's just the slightest bit of extra gradation in the rankings. California and Michigan are the worst of the 1-0 teams, having beaten an 0-2 team instead of everyone else who beat a 0-1 team. I was a little concerned when I saw Hawai'i only ranked #127, but that's because Marshall hasn't played yet. You don't get a ranking until you play.

I believe the FBS stayed steady at 128 teams this year, which is just begging for a 7-round tournament, right? Anyway, no teams left or joined, but I still have to modify my filter slightly, to account for ESPN's stylistic differences in listing the teams. For example, Hawaii is now Hawai'i. A few years ago, they waffled between "Mississippi" and "Ole Miss". I try to keep up with any adjustments, but if you notice your FBS team missing, leave me a comment and they'll be there next week. I think I'm good, because I have 127 teams represented and the aforementioned Marshall still to add.

Every year, someone makes me tweak my software a little, because I wrote it awhile ago and it's not very dynamic. The previous long school name was "Southwestern Assemblies of God", but this year there's now "University of Texas of the Permian Basin". Good ol' UTPB.

Now onto the slightly less-meaningless-than-usual Week 1 rankings for 2016.

1Louisville1-0
1Central Michigan1-0
1Wake Forest1-0
1Cincinnati1-0
1Connecticut1-0
1NC State1-0
1Indiana1-0
1South Carolina1-0
1Utah1-0
1Utah State1-0
1Western Kentucky1-0
1Minnesota1-0
1New Mexico1-0
1Idaho1-0
1UNLV1-0
1Stanford1-0
1Michigan State1-0
1Baylor1-0
1Eastern Michigan1-0
1Ball State1-0
1Syracuse1-0
1Army1-0
1Colorado1-0
1Toledo1-0
1Nevada1-0
1Alabama1-0
1Clemson1-0
1Houston1-0
1Wisconsin1-0
1Ohio State1-0
1TCU1-0
1Washington1-0
1Texas A&M1-0
1Iowa1-0
1Georgia1-0
1Oklahoma State1-0
1Oregon1-0
1Florida1-0
1Georgia Tech1-0
1Navy1-0
1Purdue1-0
1Western Michigan1-0
1Boise State1-0
1South Alabama1-0
1West Virginia1-0
1Maryland1-0
1Virginia Tech1-0
1Pittsburgh1-0
1Air Force1-0
1Penn State1-0
1Texas State1-0
1Illinois1-0
1Arkansas1-0
1Florida Atlantic1-0
1Duke1-0
1East Carolina1-0
1Miami1-0
1Georgia Southern1-0
1Troy1-0
1Akron1-0
1Middle Tennessee1-0
1SMU1-0
1Tulsa1-0
1South Florida1-0
1UCF1-0
1Kansas1-0
1Memphis1-0
1Texas San Antonio1-0
1Louisiana Monroe1-0
1Southern Mississippi1-0
1Nebraska1-0
1UTEP1-0
1Texas Tech1-0
1San Diego State1-0
1BYU1-0
1Wyoming1-0
1Arizona State1-0
1Texas1-0
1Old Dominion1-0
1Florida State1-0
1Tennessee1-0
82Michigan1-0
82California1-0
84Northern Illinois0-1
84Boston College0-1
84Notre Dame0-1
84Buffalo0-1
84Ole Miss0-1
84Northwestern0-1
84Louisiana Lafayette0-1
84Rice0-1
84Mississippi State0-1
84Temple0-1
84Missouri0-1
84Charlotte0-1
84Colorado State0-1
84Oregon State0-1
84Arkansas State0-1
84Virginia0-1
84Kent State0-1
84Ohio0-1
84USC0-1
84Tulane0-1
84Louisiana Tech0-1
84Auburn0-1
84Oklahoma0-1
84Florida Intl0-1
84LSU0-1
84Bowling Green0-1
84Appalachian State0-1
84Kansas State0-1
84North Texas0-1
84San Jose State0-1
84Vanderbilt0-1
84Rutgers0-1
84UCLA0-1
84Miami (OH)0-1
84Kentucky0-1
84North Carolina0-1
84Iowa State0-1
84Fresno State0-1
84Washington State0-1
84New Mexico State0-1
84Massachusetts0-1
84Arizona0-1
84Georgia State0-1
127Hawai'i0-2