2016-12-09

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 14, Thursday

New England over Dallas

Kansas City beat Oakland on one of the best Thursday night matchups we've seen (by record), and now both teams are over 98% likely to make the playoffs, along with a 66% chance for Denver. Kansas City has a tiebreaker lead over Oakland, so despite their identical records, Kansas City has double the chances at winning the division. We'll see a very strong first wildcard team in the AFC, most likely one with a much better record than the 4th division winner they'll face in the opening round, currently likely to be the winner of the AFC South, which has 3 co-leaders at 6-6.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE10-20.71499.2199.6599.0964.3740.8023.80
DAL11-10.69298.65++99.2465.2738.1621.14
SEA8-3-10.66298.6999.3592.2056.2429.3915.28
DEN8-40.6206.3865.5439.0817.998.874.26
BAL7-50.61551.3257.1131.3515.077.153.40
PIT7-50.61248.1358.9032.0915.467.213.40
KC10-30.60165.1298.5583.6242.3618.468.50
ATL7-50.58576.2688.3552.3222.189.954.37
OAK10-30.56828.5098.1167.2129.1812.025.13
MIN6-60.5605.3229.8714.915.622.461.02
BUF6-60.5600.006.693.091.130.520.22
ARI5-6-10.5531.3110.945.261.980.860.35
DET8-40.55184.2290.1953.9321.418.753.56
PHI5-70.550-2.321.120.410.180.07
SD5-70.526-0.350.150.050.020.01
TEN6-60.52224.4725.5811.244.161.580.61
NO5-70.5204.967.273.441.180.460.18
NYG8-40.5191.3568.4532.1011.034.331.63
WAS6-5-10.515-37.2516.775.602.210.82
IND6-60.50041.3541.5917.276.002.140.78
GB6-60.48710.4617.097.632.410.870.30
TB7-50.48418.6848.7321.016.662.390.82
CIN4-7-10.4690.550.570.220.070.020.01
MIA7-50.4520.7913.015.111.520.520.17
CAR4-80.4300.090.180.070.020.010.00
HOU6-60.38334.1834.3410.502.630.680.18
CHI3-90.351-0.000.000.000.000.00
JAC2-100.326------
LA4-80.309-0.020.000.000.000.00
NYJ3-90.299------
SF1-110.277------
CLE0-120.237------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Final] New England over Dallas

2016-12-08

Bowl Pick 'Em Contest Winnings, Part XXVI

College football will be here again before we know it IS HERE, so I've got to get my prize from last season's Bowl Pick 'Em contest at Cards on Cards posted! My prize for a second place tie was a very generously sized box of cards, so I felt a bit overwhelmed even sorting through them. I finally sorted them out by player, and, as usual, I'll plan to post them all eventually, but I might quit halfway through, we'll see.

Part I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII XVIII XIX XX
XXI XXII XXIII XXIV XXV

We're just about into Bowl Season again. Will I get these done anytime soon?

1986 Topps Traded #82T Jose Oquendo
1990 Sportflics #85 Jose Oquendo
1991 Topps Stadium Club #190 Jose Oquendo
1991 Topps Stadium Club #366 Felix Jose
1991 Topps Stadium Club #481 Jamie Moyer
1992 Donruss - Diamond Kings #DK-13 Felix Jose
St. Louis was Jamie Moyer's 3rd team, and yet he retired 21 years after he left the Cardinals.

1992 Fleer - All Stars #1 Felix Jose
1996 Donruss #87 Brian Jordan
1996 Donruss #153 Tripp Cromer
1996 Donruss #234 Jose Oquendo
1996 Donruss #282 Mike Morgan
1996 Pacific #228 Jose Oquendo
I got a nice handful of Felix Jose and Jose Oquendo cards, among others. Both of them were on the 1992 team which was the first I ever watched. Oquendo had a long coaching career with the Cardinals as well, but has opted to just be a spring training instructor for now. He's no Hall of Famer, but I think the Cardinals should retire #11 for him, for combined playing and coaching contributions to the team.







2016-12-06

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 13, Final

New England over Dallas

The Jets lost and ended any hopes of making the playoffs. Somewhat interestingly, Miami and Buffalo both lost ground in the divisional race, even though they and New England all play the Jets one more time each. That's because New England is projected to be even more likely to beat them now, which will eliminate Buffalo no matter their other results, and force Miami to beat New England on tiebreakers. Let's be realistic though, New England is going to win the AFC East.

Indianapolis was the winner last night, and with a 31 point victory they brought their point differential to exactly 0, hence why they are listed at .500 in strength. A team that gives as many points as it gets is expected to win about half the time on average, which Indianapolis has done, going 6-6 so far.

This Thursday will be one of the best Thursday matchups we've seen this season, KC vs Oakland. Neither team will be eliminated, and most likely both will eventually make the playoffs along with their division rival Denver.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE10-20.71499.2199.7399.1364.1641.0623.95
DAL11-10.69298.65++99.2465.2838.1621.21
SEA8-3-10.66298.6999.3592.2056.2329.3915.33
DEN8-40.6205.5365.4138.8618.378.994.32
BAL7-50.61551.3157.9431.6914.917.253.44
PIT7-50.61248.1360.0932.4915.427.343.46
ATL7-50.58576.6488.4752.4322.239.974.40
KC9-30.58336.3991.9767.2931.6113.375.91
OAK10-20.57958.0899.1081.4739.0816.217.11
MIN6-60.5615.3229.8814.915.622.461.03
BUF6-60.5600.007.293.391.340.590.25
ARI5-6-10.5531.3110.935.261.970.860.35
DET8-40.55184.2290.2053.9221.398.743.57
PHI5-70.550-2.321.120.410.170.07
SD5-70.526-0.530.230.080.030.01
TEN6-60.52225.1526.4511.634.351.660.64
NO5-70.5204.967.273.441.180.460.18
NYG8-40.5191.3568.4532.0911.034.321.63
WAS6-5-10.515-37.2616.765.602.210.83
IND6-60.50040.7641.0616.996.012.160.78
GB6-60.48710.4617.127.642.420.870.31
TB7-50.48418.3148.5620.926.622.380.82
CIN4-7-10.4690.550.570.220.070.030.01
MIA7-50.4520.7915.576.161.940.640.21
CAR4-80.4300.090.180.070.020.010.00
HOU6-60.38334.0934.2910.452.670.690.18
CHI3-90.351-0.000.000.000.000.00
JAC2-100.326------
LA4-80.309-0.020.000.000.000.00
NYJ3-90.299------
SF1-110.277------
CLE0-120.237------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Dallas

2016-12-05

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 13, Sunday

New England over Dallas

I think we all should have known that New England's game against LA would allow them to improve their points scored to points allowed ratio enough to overtake Dallas in strength. I've now had the same two teams winning each conference since Sunday of Week 8. They've swapped positions with each other a few times, but remained atop their respecive conferences.

Dallas is the first team to clinch a playoff spot, getting the loss they needed from Washington to guarantee they can't finish below 6th. Jacksonville is the third team completly out of the playoff hunt, while Los Angeles, Chicago, San Diego, and Washington have now been eliminated from their divisions.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE10-20.71499.1999.7099.0564.2341.1223.98
DAL11-10.69298.65++99.2465.2638.1521.20
SEA8-3-10.66298.6999.3592.1956.2129.3715.32
DEN8-40.6205.3265.9839.4318.709.144.39
BAL7-50.61551.3258.1231.7714.907.273.45
PIT7-50.61248.1360.3832.5315.377.343.46
ATL7-50.58576.6588.3852.3922.229.974.40
KC9-30.58335.2692.2567.8331.8913.505.96
OAK10-20.57959.4299.2582.8539.9116.537.25
MIN6-60.5605.7131.5515.755.942.601.09
BUF6-60.5600.007.133.311.320.580.24
ARI5-6-10.5531.3110.735.161.940.840.35
DET8-40.55183.9489.9953.7521.328.713.56
PHI5-70.550-2.281.100.400.170.07
SD5-70.526-0.570.250.080.040.01
TEN6-60.52233.2834.1014.965.602.130.82
NO5-70.5204.967.203.411.170.460.17
NYG8-40.5191.3568.0931.9210.974.301.63
WAS6-5-10.515-36.9216.615.552.190.82
GB6-60.48710.3517.027.592.400.870.30
TB7-50.48418.2948.3120.836.602.370.82
CIN4-7-10.4690.550.570.220.070.030.01
MIA7-50.4520.8114.885.931.880.620.20
IND5-60.44525.9126.089.402.870.890.28
CAR4-80.4300.090.170.070.020.010.00
HOU6-60.38340.8040.9912.473.180.820.22
NYJ3-80.353-0.000.000.000.000.00
CHI3-90.351-0.000.000.000.000.00
JAC2-100.326------
LA4-80.309-0.020.000.000.000.00
SF1-110.277------
CLE0-120.237------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over New England

2016-12-04

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 14

Alabama and Clemson both won their conference title games and stayed #1 and #2. Ohio State, not playing due to not being in the title game for the Big Ten, fell just out of my top 4. Penn State and Wisconsin, who played for the Big Ten, were #7 and #8 before, so Penn State only managed to reach #6. The rankings came out early this week, since it's the final week, and as expected, my big difference from the committee is that I have Western Michigan #3, and they have them #15. I'd think they would at least bump them up to somewhere between 5-10, since the spots are pretty much meaningless once you pass #4. This just confirms that for a large number of teams, you'll have no shot at the championship, even with an undefeated season.

Compared to the committee, I matched #1, #2, and #4. And if you throw out Western Michigan for not being in the big money conferences, I guess, I got the 4 teams right but out of order. So - other than Western Michigan - I can generally agree with the committee's choices. Somewhat ironically, I think this is a year you could pick a pretty clear #1 and #2, so the old BCS system would have worked out OK with little controversy. Putting 4 teams into a playoff was supposed to solve the idea of a 3rd really good team getting left out, but of course it just causes people to argue over the teams that land around #5 or #6. I've heard ideas about expanding to 6 or 8 teams, but it will just shift the window of which picks are controversial down that many more places. Pundits need something to talk about I suppose. So do I, for that matter.

The bottom two teams remained in place as well, though a surprising number of teams toward the bottom did shuffle around a bit, due to their schedule strengths changing when their good opponents won or lost.


1Alabama13-0
2Clemson12-1
3Western Michigan13-0
4Washington12-1
5Ohio State11-1
6Penn State11-2
7Michigan10-2
8Oklahoma10-2
9Boise State10-2
10West Virginia10-2
11Wisconsin10-3
12Colorado10-3
13South Florida10-2
14Florida State9-3
15Temple10-3
16Western Kentucky10-3
17San Diego State10-3
18Navy9-3
19USC9-3
20Oklahoma State9-3
21Stanford9-3
22Virginia Tech9-4
23Nebraska9-3
24Tulsa9-3
25Louisville9-3
26Houston9-3
27Tennessee8-4
28Toledo9-3
29Appalachian State9-3
30North Carolina8-4
31Auburn8-4
32Air Force9-3
33Pittsburgh8-4
34Florida8-4
35Washington State8-4
36Georgia Tech8-4
37Texas A&M8-4
38Troy9-3
39Iowa8-4
40Wyoming8-5
41Old Dominion9-3
42Miami8-4
43Utah8-4
44LSU7-4
45Memphis8-4
46Minnesota8-4
47Kansas State8-4
48BYU8-4
49Idaho8-4
50Georgia7-5
51New Mexico8-4
52Arkansas7-5
53Louisiana Tech8-5
54Colorado State7-5
55Middle Tennessee8-4
56Ohio8-5
57Kentucky7-5
58Vanderbilt6-6
59Arkansas State7-5
60Eastern Michigan7-5
61NC State6-6
62Northwestern6-6
63TCU6-6
64Ole Miss5-7
65South Carolina6-6
66UCF6-6
67Boston College6-6
68Wake Forest6-6
69Louisiana Lafayette6-6
70Indiana6-6
71Maryland6-6
72Texas San Antonio6-6
73Central Michigan6-6
74South Alabama6-6
75Baylor6-6
76Mississippi State5-7
77SMU5-7
78Hawai'i6-7
79Miami (OH)6-6
80Southern Mississippi6-6
81California5-7
82Arizona State5-7
83Texas Tech5-7
84Northern Illinois5-7
85Army6-5
86Georgia Southern5-7
87Texas5-7
88North Texas5-7
89Akron5-7
90Syracuse4-8
91Missouri4-8
92Duke4-8
93UCLA4-8
94Oregon4-8
95Oregon State4-8
96Tulane4-8
97Cincinnati4-8
98Louisiana Monroe4-8
99Nevada5-7
100Notre Dame4-8
101Bowling Green4-8
102San Jose State4-8
103Arizona3-9
104UNLV4-8
105Utah State3-9
106Charlotte4-8
107Florida Intl4-8
108Ball State4-8
109Illinois3-9
110East Carolina3-9
111Iowa State3-9
112New Mexico State3-9
113UTEP4-8
114Michigan State3-9
115Purdue3-9
116Georgia State3-9
117Kent State3-9
118Connecticut3-9
119Rice3-9
120Marshall3-9
121Virginia2-10
122Florida Atlantic3-9
123Rutgers2-10
124Kansas2-10
125Massachusetts2-10
126Texas State2-10
127Buffalo2-10
128Fresno State1-11

2016 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M
Week 4 Texas A&M
Week 5 Tennessee
Week 6 Texas A&M
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Alabama
Week 10 Alabama
Week 11 Alabama
Week 12 Alabama
Week 13 Alabama

2016-12-02

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 13, Thursday

Dallas over New England

By virtue of playing first in week 13, Dallas has retaken the lead position from New England. We'll see what happens with that after their game on Sunday. Philadelphia is officially eliminated from winning the NFC East. Dallas has not yet clinched a playoff spot, even though I show 100.00%. That's due to rounding. A true 100% will show a "+" instead. Out of a billion simulations, they missed the playoffs in less than 3400 of them, putting them over the five 9s mark (99.999%). I like to double check my clinched/not clinched status with other sites, especially because I don't simulate ties by default, and when I do the percentage chance is too low to cover all possible scenarios, and those sites tell me Dallas needs Tampa to lose or tie, or Washington to lose, in order to clinch a playoff spot. If that doesn't happen, but some other games go the right way, such as the Giants losing, Dallas could get even closer to clinching without being officially in the postseason.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
DAL11-10.69396.14100.0098.5564.6440.7423.90
NE9-20.68394.7399.0597.2962.0838.9122.17
DEN7-40.5976.8546.6629.9314.487.113.40
PIT6-50.59155.0259.7633.3016.227.763.66
SEA7-3-10.59196.9497.6980.0442.4319.159.16
PHI5-60.589-10.025.352.221.120.53
BUF6-50.5880.2526.0315.016.743.311.55
ATL7-40.58681.7988.1360.3630.1313.636.45
KC8-30.58337.2282.9262.5431.5114.476.71
MIN6-60.56115.1831.7716.456.733.071.38
OAK9-20.55655.9092.0675.8836.3915.516.78
NO5-60.5438.8215.577.943.241.400.60
BAL6-50.54244.1446.7622.899.834.281.81
NYG8-30.5423.8279.8541.4816.307.153.07
SD5-60.5370.023.281.650.640.290.12
ARI4-6-10.5373.006.543.211.260.550.23
WAS6-4-10.5300.0454.1625.779.384.131.73
TEN6-60.52225.5327.1612.475.042.070.84
DET7-40.51972.5376.7343.5617.866.932.83
MIA7-40.5195.0240.5322.428.913.741.50
CAR4-70.4910.491.240.540.180.070.03
GB5-60.47312.2815.036.582.220.810.29
TB6-50.4708.9023.1210.123.391.240.45
IND5-60.44520.8921.187.952.620.890.30
CIN3-7-10.4290.840.840.300.100.030.01
HOU6-50.40253.5553.7318.345.421.620.48
NYJ3-80.353-0.000.000.000.000.00
JAC2-90.3490.030.030.010.000.000.00
LA4-70.3430.060.150.050.010.000.00
CHI2-90.3180.000.000.000.000.000.00
SF1-100.311------
CLE0-120.237------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas

2016-12-01

Bowl Pick 'Em Contest Winnings, Part XXV

College football will be here again before we know it IS HERE, so I've got to get my prize from last season's Bowl Pick 'Em contest at Cards on Cards posted! My prize for a second place tie was a very generously sized box of cards, so I felt a bit overwhelmed even sorting through them. I finally sorted them out by player, and, as usual, I'll plan to post them all eventually, but I might quit halfway through, we'll see.

Part I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII XVIII XIX XX
XXI XXII XXIII XXIV

With Jaime Garcia getting traded today, I thought I'd play one of Deadspin's favorite games: Let's Remember Some Guys. Except I'll throw in some context about how they left.

2011 Topps Allen and Ginter #303 Jaime Garcia
2011 Topps Lineage #189 Jaime Garcia
2012 Topps Archives #34 Jaime Garcia
2012 Topps Chrome #119 Jaime Garcia
2013 Topps #54 Jaime Garcia
2014 Topps Allen and Ginter #84 Joe Kelly
2014 Topps Allen and Ginter #198 Pete Kozma
2014 Topps Archives #28 Joe Kelly
2015 Topps Heritage Minor League #2 Rob Kaminsky
Jaime Garcia went to the Braves after multiple injury plagued seasons here. I hope for his sake he can make it through a season. On the scale of Braves-Cardinals trades, I just need this one to go better than Jason Heyward, and if we're lucky, as good as Adam Wainwright. The return is all prospects, so we'll see what happens.

Joe Kelly was part of the deal to bring John Lackey to St. Louis. I'd say that trade was a success overall, especially since the Cardinals got his 2015 season very cheaply due to a quirk of his contract triggered by an injury earlier on.

Pete Kozma signed with the Yankees after becoming a free agent at the end of the 2015 season. He played all 4 infield positions and 130 games in 2016, but in AAA only.

Rob Kaminsky hasn't even made it to AAA yet, but was sent to Cleveland for Brandon Moss at the 2015 trade deadline. He lasted through the 2016, but is now a free agent. Moss wore my favorite jersey number, so I'll have to have a new default favorite player in 2016.

2016-11-29

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 12, Final

New England over Dallas

Philadelphia was the third strongest team before their loss last night, despite being 5-5 on the season. Green Bay was 23rd, but they pulled off the win on the road. Philadelphia would now need to win out, have Dallas lose out, and get some losses from the other two teams in the division, as well as getting some tiebreakers to fall correctly, in order to win their division. Buffalo and Philadelphia are teams that have really outplayed their records, which basically means they've been unlucky, or have won some games by a large margin while losing their games by small margins.

In Week 13 there are two final byes, Cleveland and Tennessee, and everyone will have played 12 games. We'll probably see several more eliminations as teams run out of room to catch the leaders, and perhaps a playoff clinch or two.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE9-20.68394.7399.0597.2962.0938.9122.45
DAL10-10.68292.6599.8896.8462.2638.5522.18
DEN7-40.5976.8646.6629.9314.487.113.45
PIT6-50.59155.0359.7733.3116.227.773.72
SEA7-3-10.59196.9497.6379.2341.8119.329.24
PHI5-60.5890.019.224.912.111.060.51
BUF6-50.5880.2526.0315.026.743.311.57
ATL7-40.58681.7487.6759.8929.9313.846.55
KC8-30.58337.2382.9262.5531.5114.476.81
MIN6-50.56523.7844.9124.5210.684.892.21
OAK9-20.55655.8992.0675.8836.3915.516.89
NO5-60.5438.8115.057.633.171.390.60
BAL6-50.54244.1346.7522.899.834.281.84
NYG8-30.5427.1078.4341.8616.917.493.22
SD5-60.5370.023.281.650.640.290.12
ARI4-6-10.5373.006.062.951.190.520.22
WAS6-4-10.5300.2451.5224.479.224.061.70
TEN6-60.52225.5727.2012.495.052.070.85
DET7-40.51965.8973.0241.7417.236.842.79
MIA7-40.5195.0240.5322.428.913.741.53
CAR4-70.4910.491.160.510.180.070.03
GB5-60.47310.3213.155.731.970.730.26
TB6-50.4708.9622.159.683.331.240.45
IND5-60.44420.8421.127.932.620.880.30
CIN3-7-10.4290.840.840.300.100.030.01
HOU6-50.40253.5653.7518.345.421.620.49
NYJ3-80.353-0.000.000.000.000.00
JAC2-90.3490.030.030.010.000.000.00
LA4-70.3430.060.140.040.010.000.00
CHI2-90.3180.000.000.000.000.000.00
SF1-100.311------
CLE0-120.237------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas

2016-11-28

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 12, Sunday

New England over Dallas

New England took over the lead in strength, 0.68344 to 0.68251, so would be just barely favored against Dallas. Dallas lost just a little bit of their playoff odds, because the Giants keep winning and are still only 2 games back in the NFC East.

Denver, despite being the 4th best team, has a decent shot of missing the playoffs the year after a Superbowl win. They're just 47% likely to make the playoffs, and 7% to win the division, in third place and 2 games behind Oakland, and 1 behind Kansas City, who they lost to last night as time expired in overtime.

San Francisco is now officially eliminated, so I can stop trying to run enough simulations to get them to advance. The Jets are also eliminated from their division, which doesn't take any sort of tiebreakers to determine; they've got 8 losses and New England has 9 wins, so they can't be caught.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE9-20.68394.7399.0597.3062.1038.9222.41
DAL10-10.68392.4899.8496.7161.5238.0221.88
PHI5-50.6160.1925.5014.326.613.491.76
DEN7-40.5976.8646.7229.9714.507.123.45
PIT6-50.59155.6660.2533.5616.347.823.73
SEA7-3-10.59197.0597.6279.1241.6519.169.17
BUF6-50.5880.2526.0715.046.753.311.57
ATL7-40.58681.6786.6258.4929.1813.446.36
KC8-30.58337.2282.9562.5731.5214.476.79
MIN6-50.56524.7744.1023.9710.474.772.16
OAK9-20.55655.9092.0775.8936.3915.516.87
NO5-60.5438.8114.067.092.961.290.55
BAL6-50.54243.5346.0822.539.674.211.81
NYG8-30.5427.0876.4140.7216.437.243.11
SD5-60.5370.023.291.660.640.290.12
ARI4-6-10.5372.895.352.601.060.460.20
WAS6-4-10.5300.2446.7922.208.373.671.54
TEN6-60.52225.2326.9012.365.002.050.84
DET7-40.51970.5876.1342.9617.737.002.86
MIA7-40.5195.0240.5522.448.923.741.52
CAR4-70.4910.491.060.460.160.060.02
TB6-50.4709.0320.819.063.131.150.42
GB4-60.4484.645.582.270.730.250.09
IND5-60.44420.6320.927.852.590.870.30
CIN3-7-10.4290.810.810.290.090.030.01
HOU6-50.40254.1154.3018.545.481.640.49
NYJ3-80.353-0.000.000.000.000.00
JAC2-90.3490.030.030.010.000.000.00
LA4-70.3430.060.120.040.010.000.00
CHI2-90.3180.000.000.000.000.000.00
SF1-100.311------
CLE0-120.237------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England

2016-11-27

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

Alabama and Clemson stayed at the top after Rivalry weekend, which leads us to Conference Championship weekend. With a defeat of a very highly ranked Michigan team, Ohio State overtook undefeated Western Michigan for the #3 spot. I feel like this year really helps justify my ranking system, because it boosts an undefeated non-power-conference team up high, but not automatically #1 just for being 12-0, because the ranking of a team's opponents comes into play. I'd really like to see them beat Ohio next week to see how the committee justifies keeping an undefeated team out of the playoff. I realize they probably aren't the top team, but if winning every game isn't enough to get a shot at the title, then plenty of teams have no chance at the beginning of the season, which is simply dumb. I realize I may have to eat some crow on that statement, since they could fall out of my top 5, since Alabama, Clemson, and Washington will all face tougher teams than Western Michigan, and could push them to #5 or below.

Missouri beat Arkansas to raise themselves up to #90, and finish the season 4-8, certainly left out of the bowl season. Arkansas should still make a lowest-tier bowl at 7-5.

Fresno State stayed #128, and will likely stay there through the playoff as no teams down that low have any more games. It might be possible for the wins and losses of FCS opponents to shift teams a bit, but most likely we've crowned our anti-champion already.

1Alabama12-0
2Clemson11-1
3Ohio State11-1
4Western Michigan12-0
5Washington11-1
6Michigan10-2
7Wisconsin10-2
8Penn State10-2
9Colorado10-2
10Boise State10-2
11South Florida10-2
12Florida State9-3
13Navy9-2
14West Virginia9-2
15USC9-3
16Oklahoma9-2
17Oklahoma State9-2
18Virginia Tech9-3
19Nebraska9-3
20Stanford9-3
21Tulsa9-3
22Louisville9-3
23Houston9-3
24Tennessee8-4
25Toledo9-3
26Temple9-3
27North Carolina8-4
28Appalachian State9-3
29Air Force9-3
30Pittsburgh8-4
31Auburn8-4
32Western Kentucky9-3
33Florida8-3
34Washington State8-4
35Georgia Tech8-4
36Troy9-2
37Texas A&M8-4
38San Diego State9-3
39Iowa8-4
40Wyoming8-4
41Miami8-4
42Old Dominion9-3
43Utah8-4
44LSU7-4
45Memphis8-4
46Minnesota8-4
47BYU8-4
48Georgia7-5
49New Mexico8-4
50Arkansas7-5
51Louisiana Tech8-4
52Colorado State7-5
53Ohio8-4
54Middle Tennessee8-4
55Kentucky7-5
56Kansas State7-4
57Idaho7-4
58Vanderbilt6-6
59Eastern Michigan7-5
60NC State6-6
61Northwestern6-6
62TCU6-5
63South Carolina6-6
64Boston College6-6
65UCF6-6
66Ole Miss5-7
67Arkansas State6-5
68Wake Forest6-6
69Indiana6-6
70Maryland6-6
71Texas San Antonio6-6
72Central Michigan6-6
73Baylor6-5
74Mississippi State5-7
75SMU5-7
76Hawai'i6-7
77Miami (OH)6-6
78Southern Mississippi6-6
79California5-7
80Arizona State5-7
81Army6-5
82Northern Illinois5-7
83Texas Tech5-7
84Louisiana Lafayette5-6
85Texas5-7
86South Alabama5-6
87Syracuse4-8
88North Texas5-7
89Akron5-7
90Missouri4-8
91Duke4-8
92UCLA4-8
93Oregon4-8
94Oregon State4-8
95Tulane4-8
96Cincinnati4-8
97Notre Dame4-8
98Louisiana Monroe4-7
99Nevada5-7
100Bowling Green4-8
101Georgia Southern4-7
102San Jose State4-8
103Arizona3-9
104UNLV4-8
105Utah State3-9
106Charlotte4-8
107Florida Intl4-8
108Ball State4-8
109Illinois3-9
110East Carolina3-9
111New Mexico State3-8
112Michigan State3-9
113UTEP4-8
114Iowa State3-9
115Purdue3-9
116Georgia State3-8
117Kent State3-9
118Connecticut3-9
119Rice3-9
120Marshall3-9
121Virginia2-10
122Rutgers2-10
123Florida Atlantic3-9
124Massachusetts2-10
125Kansas2-10
126Texas State2-9
127Buffalo2-10
128Fresno State1-11

2016 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M
Week 4 Texas A&M
Week 5 Tennessee
Week 6 Texas A&M
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Alabama
Week 10 Alabama
Week 11 Alabama
Week 12 Alabama

2016-11-25

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 12, Thursday

Dallas over New England

We had triple the chances of a meaningful Thursday game this week, with 3 Thanksgiving games played. We didn't get any huge changes, but Dallas solidified their position and cracked the three nines mark and is now 99.9% likely to make the playoffs. Although looking at my numbers with more decimal places, that's slightly rounded up. We can keep it our little secret. I really find myself rooting for Dallas to do well, especially with the outstanding play of their rookie QB. Pittsburgh was the other big winner on the day,, ,moving up to 68% likely to make the playoffs and the 6th strongest team. Detroit also won a game with possible tiebreaker implications to go up 1 game on Minnesota, which flipped the division in their favor.

I really hope San Francisco loses this week so I can stop mentioning the caveat that they are not actually eliminated, I just never got them to the playoffs in 2.1 billion weighted simulations this week. Chicago, Jacksonville, and the Jets may wind up with the faux elimination treatment after Sunday.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
DAL10-10.68294.9999.9097.6062.7038.6022.49
NE8-20.67193.9798.4096.2160.3336.9420.69
PHI5-50.6160.2328.7016.577.644.012.05
SEA7-2-10.60695.3897.5788.5949.8423.6511.85
DEN7-30.60623.6370.8651.5226.8913.466.61
PIT6-50.59164.2768.3938.8519.019.314.43
ARI4-5-10.5794.4716.159.314.181.990.94
KC7-30.57928.9871.0351.2625.6211.935.53
BUF5-50.5750.6522.8413.115.892.831.30
MIN6-50.56523.0446.5025.5911.015.032.31
ATL6-40.55776.8879.2245.0319.968.713.94
OAK8-20.55247.3588.0169.1232.7714.206.22
WAS6-4-10.5300.2347.3123.238.763.811.62
BAL5-50.52932.4935.1517.037.173.101.29
SD4-60.5230.032.911.440.560.240.10
DET7-40.51972.6979.0843.5517.747.032.92
TEN5-60.51113.6716.497.593.021.230.49
NYG7-30.5094.5567.2533.7912.445.062.05
MIA6-40.5045.3735.0619.317.633.121.22
NO4-60.4988.7610.955.021.840.720.28
CAR4-60.4963.815.472.480.890.350.14
TB5-50.45510.5615.426.552.170.760.27
GB4-60.4484.235.472.300.730.250.09
IND5-60.44517.1417.856.802.270.780.26
CIN3-6-10.4413.233.301.240.420.150.05
HOU6-40.42169.0769.5126.458.422.700.85
LA4-60.3980.150.980.370.100.030.01
NYJ3-70.3650.010.060.020.010.000.00
JAC2-80.3620.130.130.040.010.000.00
CHI2-80.3280.040.040.010.000.000.00
SF1-90.323------
CLE0-110.262------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England