2018-05-18

I'm back, and so is The Daily Dimwit

I'm not sure if anyone really noticed, but I took a little hiatus there. I've been busy, and my card collection hasn't been conveniently accessible to me for a little while, so I got a bit lazy once the football season ended. So lazy, in fact, that I didn't even start tracking NHL playoff probabilities. I'll pick those up for the Final I suppose.

Much more interesting is the return of the much more prolific blogger Sam of The Daily Dimwit. Not only is it interesting because you'll see cooler stuff on his blog, but because he's offering a contest to announce his return. It's just a little relic card...

2004 Topps Clubhouse Collection - #JR Jackie Robinson
...of one of the most historically significant players ever. It's a Jackie Robinson Game-Used bat just in case you can't read it. You've got to tweet or blog about the contest before next Wednesday to enter, so get to it!

2018-01-22

Superbowl LII Projection, Championship Sunday

Philadelphia over New England

Well here we are, the first 10 playoff games were moot. The #1 team in both the AFC and NFC made the Superbowl. Of course, this was the most likely scenario, and the projection I made at the start of the playoffs. Of 36 possible matchups, this one had a 14.5% chance of happening, over 1 in 7.

I really thought Jacksonville was going to pull off the win, but they just couldn't quite hang in there for the full 60 minutes. In the NFC, Minnesota struck first, but never scored again, and the result looks pretty certain by halftime. Both teams I rooted for lost, but I wasn't really rooting that hard.

I think Philadelphia is going to continue to score a whole lot of points in the Superbowl, so New England's offense is going to have to match them. We'll see if they've got one more miracle in them to make Tom Brady the only player ever with 6 Superbowl rings. I'm not really sure I'm rooting for either team this time, but I'll probably wear my Eagles hat, as it's the only article of clothing I have related to either team.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI13-30.785++++++++++50.57
NE13-30.781++++++++++49.43
JAC10-60.787++++++++--
MIN13-30.774++++++++--
LAR11-50.751++++----
NO11-50.719++++++---
LAC9-70.694------
PIT13-30.693++++++---
BAL9-70.686------
KC10-60.645++++----
ATL10-60.583-++++---
CAR11-50.576-++----
SEA9-70.571------
DET9-70.564------
DAL9-70.547------
TEN9-70.453-++++---
WAS7-90.408------
TB5-110.404------
SF6-100.394------
BUF9-70.375-++----
GB7-90.369------
CIN7-90.367------
CHI5-110.362------
ARI8-80.355------
OAK6-100.347------
NYJ5-110.324------
HOU4-120.320------
DEN5-110.305------
MIA6-100.271------
IND4-120.220------
NYG3-130.207------
CLE0-160.160------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia and New England (Divisional Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage: Philadelphia (Week 16, Final)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 16, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 17, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Wildcard Saturday] Philadelphia over New England
[Wildcard Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Divisional Saturday] Philadelphia over New England
[Divisional Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia

2018-01-15

Superbowl LII Projection, Divisional Sunday

Jacksonville over Philadelphia

I wasn't expecting my Superbowl favorite to change this week, but I see now why it did. Jacksonville had one of the tougher games, so had a much lower shot of making the AFC Championship than New England did. Now that they're both in, I'm favoring Jacksonville just slightly. However, if I were to consider home field advantage, and gave home teams just a 50.9% average generically, the projection would flip to New England. Home teams were .566 this year, so consider that projection to have a very wide confidence interval. All 4 teams are actually pretty evenly matched, and as you can see they're all pretty close to an even 1 in 4 chance of winning it all.

So who am I rooting for now?

Jacksonville at New England:
Jacksonville, mostly because I'll look like a genius if my pick comes through.

Minnesota at Philadelphia:
This is a tough one. Most years I'd probably root for the Eagles. I even have an Eagles hat for some reason. But, I think it'd be cool to see the first Superbowl team to play in their own stadium. Just for the curiosity of it, I'll root for Minnesota.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
JAC10-60.787++++++++50.9026.03
PHI13-30.785++++++++51.5825.84
NE13-30.781++++++++49.1024.65
MIN13-30.774++++++++48.4223.49
LAR11-50.751++++----
NO11-50.719++++++---
LAC9-70.694------
PIT13-30.693++++++---
BAL9-70.686------
KC10-60.645++++----
ATL10-60.583-++++---
CAR11-50.576-++----
SEA9-70.571------
DET9-70.564------
DAL9-70.547------
TEN9-70.453-++++---
WAS7-90.408------
TB5-110.404------
SF6-100.394------
BUF9-70.375-++----
GB7-90.369------
CIN7-90.367------
CHI5-110.362------
ARI8-80.355------
OAK6-100.347------
NYJ5-110.324------
HOU4-120.320------
DEN5-110.305------
MIA6-100.271------
IND4-120.220------
NYG3-130.207------
CLE0-160.160------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia and New England (Divisional Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage: Philadelphia (Week 16, Final)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 16, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 17, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Wildcard Saturday] Philadelphia over New England
[Wildcard Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Divisional Saturday] Philadelphia over New England

2018-01-14

Superbowl LII Projection, Divisional Saturday

Philadelphia over New England

I have no data to back this up, but I feel like the NFL hasn't had both #1 seeds play on Saturday in quite a few years. So usually it mangles up the projection after Divisional Saturday. This time, both #1s (and my favorites) played and won, reaffirming my projection for at least another week. That means if both home teams win today, the first two weeks of the playoffs could have just been skipped. Since the current playoff alignment began in 2002, there has been at least 1 upset in every year except for 2002, 2004, and 2015, so usually it's worth playing out the games.

Just a little housekeeping, in case you're wondering how the list below is sorted, with playoff teams seemingly scattered about, teams are sorted by Superbowl chances, followed by strength. Any eliminated playoff teams have the same Superbowl chances as Cleveland - 0% - so they are just sorted by strength now.

Now, for Sunday's rooting:
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh: Tough one! I want my system to be right, and I even picked Jacksonville in the 8th Annual Almost the Easiest Superbowl Contest on the Web, mostly to avoid the crowd that picked New England. But, a good friend of mine is a huge Steelers fan, so I usually root for them these days. I'll root for Pittsburgh.

New Orleans at Minnesota: I'll go for the favorite in this one too and root for the Vikings. Though it'll be a little painful to the the last 2 St. Louis Rams starting QBs facing each other in the NFC title game.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI13-30.784++++++++54.6628.39
NE13-30.780++++++++53.6727.61
JAC10-60.786++++++61.9931.5516.50
MIN13-30.773++++++57.1627.6613.92
NO11-50.719++++++42.8417.697.64
PIT13-30.693++++++38.0114.775.94
LAR11-50.751++++----
LAC9-70.694------
BAL9-70.686------
KC10-60.645++++----
ATL10-60.583-++++---
CAR11-50.576-++----
SEA9-70.571------
DET9-70.563------
DAL9-70.547------
TEN9-70.453-++++---
WAS7-90.408------
TB5-110.404------
SF6-100.394------
BUF9-70.375-++----
GB7-90.369------
CIN7-90.367------
CHI5-110.362------
ARI8-80.355------
OAK6-100.347------
NYJ5-110.325------
HOU4-120.321------
DEN5-110.305------
MIA6-100.271------
IND4-120.220------
NYG3-130.207------
CLE0-160.161------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia and New England (Divisional Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage: Philadelphia (Week 16, Final)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 16, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 17, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Wildcard Saturday] Philadelphia over New England
[Wildcard Sunday] Philadelphia over New England

2018-01-08

Superbowl LII Projection, Wildcard Sunday

Philadelphia over New England

The home teams both won, sending New Orleans to Minnesota and Jacksonville to Pittsburgh next Sunday. We'll see if any of the wildcard weekend teams can make their conference title games. I've got Jacksonville favored against Pittsburgh, but otherwise the bye teams are more likely to win.

Atlanta at Philadelphia: I realize they're not quite the same team they've been this year without their starting QB, but I'm rooting for Philadelphia to win.

Tennessee at New England: I feel like I should never root for New England. That said, Tennessee isn't a team I really care much about. I guess I'll root for Tennessee, just to shake up the playoffs a bit.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE13-30.780++++++81.0943.5323.37
PHI13-30.784++++++72.1939.4421.07
JAC10-60.787++++++61.9735.1519.19
MIN13-30.773++++++57.1631.2716.22
NO11-50.719++++++42.8420.469.17
PIT13-30.693++++++38.0317.257.36
ATL10-60.583-++++27.818.832.75
TEN9-70.453-++++18.914.070.89
LAR11-50.751++++----
LAC9-70.694------
BAL9-70.686------
KC10-60.645++++----
CAR11-50.576-++----
SEA9-70.571------
DET9-70.563------
DAL9-70.547------
WAS7-90.408------
TB5-110.404------
SF6-100.394------
BUF9-70.375-++----
GB7-90.369------
CIN7-90.367------
CHI5-110.362------
ARI8-80.355------
OAK6-100.347------
NYJ5-110.325------
HOU4-120.321------
DEN5-110.305------
MIA6-100.271------
IND4-120.220------
NYG3-130.207------
CLE0-160.161------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage: Philadelphia (Week 16, Final)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 16, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 17, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Wildcard Saturday] Philadelphia over New England

2018-01-07

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 19

Week 19 this year is really just the New Year's Day bowls and the FCS title game, but I'm rolling with it.

As I expected, Wisconsin didn't hold their #1 ranking for long. Georgia beat #6 Oklahoma to take back #1, which they had early in the season. Alabama also had a quality win against #3 Clemson, but starting from #7 they could only reach #5. If they beat Georgia, I may have a different #1 than the playoff for once.

For some strength of schedule reason, Florida went from #94 to #91, and Western Kentucky went from #92 to #91, meaning we have a tie. Interestingly, Florida is 4-7 and Western Kentucky is 6-7. That probably won't hold, though, because Florida played Georgia earlier this year.

Of course, I've got to mention UCF. They're undefeated, and all the way up to #2 in my rankings after beating a pretty good Auburn team, and more importantly, after everyone's played their bowl game. To me, this means they should be in a position to have a shot at the title game. Everyone seems to be saying that sure, maybe they should have been let into the playoffs, but who could you have reasonably left out? I think Alabama is the obvious answer to that, but not everyone does.

1Georgia13-1
2UCF13-0
3Wisconsin13-1
4Clemson12-2
5Alabama12-1
6Ohio State12-2
7Oklahoma12-2
8Penn State11-2
9USC11-3
10Notre Dame10-3
11Florida Atlantic11-3
12TCU11-3
13Boise State11-3
14Miami10-3
15Auburn10-4
16Toledo11-3
17Michigan State10-3
18Washington10-3
19Troy11-2
20Northwestern10-3
21Oklahoma State10-3
22Memphis10-3
23NC State9-4
24Army10-3
25San Diego State10-3
26South Carolina9-4
27Stanford9-5
28Mississippi State9-4
29South Florida10-2
30Fresno State10-4
31Washington State9-4
32Virginia Tech9-4
33LSU9-4
34Iowa8-5
35North Texas9-5
36Wake Forest8-5
37Iowa State8-5
38Michigan8-5
39Ohio9-4
40Louisville8-5
41Kansas State8-5
42Appalachian State9-4
43Boston College7-6
44Northern Illinois8-5
45Marshall8-5
46Arizona State7-6
47Florida Intl8-5
48Oregon7-6
49Florida State7-6
50Navy7-6
51Texas A&M7-6
52Duke7-6
53Central Michigan8-5
54Kentucky7-6
55Purdue7-6
56Southern Mississippi8-5
57Wyoming8-5
58Utah7-6
59Houston7-5
60Texas7-6
61SMU7-6
62West Virginia7-6
63Arizona7-6
64Temple7-6
65Missouri7-6
66Akron7-7
67Louisiana Tech7-6
68UAB8-5
69UCLA6-7
70Texas Tech6-7
71Ole Miss6-6
72Middle Tennessee7-6
73Virginia6-7
74Georgia State7-5
75Georgia Tech5-6
76Western Michigan6-6
77Colorado State7-6
78Arkansas State7-5
79Buffalo6-6
80New Mexico State7-6
81Tulane5-7
82UT San Antonio6-5
83California5-7
84Pittsburgh5-7
85Vanderbilt5-7
86Indiana5-7
87Utah State6-7
88Minnesota5-7
89Syracuse4-8
90Colorado5-7
T-91Florida4-7
T-91Western Kentucky6-7
93Air Force5-7
94Maryland4-8
95Eastern Michigan5-7
96Miami (OH)5-7
97Nebraska4-8
98Arkansas4-8
99Old Dominion5-7
100Cincinnati4-8
101Tennessee4-8
102UNLV5-7
103Rutgers4-8
104Louisiana5-7
105Louisiana Monroe4-8
106North Carolina3-9
107Idaho4-8
108South Alabama4-8
109East Carolina3-9
110BYU4-9
111UMass4-8
112Connecticut3-9
113Nevada3-9
114New Mexico3-9
115Hawai'i3-9
116Bowling Green2-10
117Coastal Carolina3-9
118Kent State2-10
119Tulsa2-10
120Illinois2-10
121Georgia Southern2-10
122Ball State2-10
123Baylor1-11
124Kansas1-11
125Charlotte1-11
126San Jose State2-11
127Texas State2-10
128Oregon State1-11
129Rice1-11
130UTEP0-12

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Georgia
Week 10 Georgia
Week 11 Alabama
Week 12 Alabama
Week 13 Wisconsin
Week 14 Georgia
Week 15 Georgia
Week 16 Georgia
Week 17 Georgia
Week 18 Wisconsin

Superbowl LII Projection, Wildcard Saturday

Philadelphia over New England

Both of the favorites lost yesterday, which generally weakens the field and strengthens the position of the top teams. Atlanta moves on to face Philadelphia, and Tennessee, a team with a negative point differential on the season, will have to wait for today's results. If Buffalo (another negative point differential team) can pull off an upset too, Tennessee will "only" have to face the #2 team, Pittsburgh. Otherwise they'll head to New England.

Today, New Orleans hosts Carolina in a division rematch. New Orleans has already beat them twice. I believe I had heard, at one point, that beating a team 3 times in one season was basically impossible. Now obviously it's completely possible, but I assumed that was based on past data that more often than not a season sweep of a division rival leads to a loss if you face them in the playoffs. I couldn't find data on that anywhere, so I just looked it up myself. I went back to 2002, which is when this playoff format mostly took shape.

Assuming I counted correctly, since then there have been 18 division rival matchups in the playoffs. 12 of them were after a 1-1 season, so they can be ignored for my purposes. That leaves just 6 season sweeps. The third win eluded only 2 teams, Dallas in 2007 against New York, and Green Bay in 2004 against Minnesota. Teams completing the three win sweep were 2002 Pittsburgh over Cleveland, 2004 St. Louis over Seattle, 2008 Pittsburgh over Baltimore, and 2009 Dallas over Philadelphia.

So, while it is rare to beat a team 3 times, it's because the opportunity is rare, not because those first 2 wins make the third any harder. Everyone in New Orleans can relax, there is no curse preventing you from winning today.

Now then, onto my rooting interests.

Buffalo at Jacksonville: I was all-in on Jacksonville because they wear white at home, and could have possibly force the Rams to wear their mismatched helmet and jersey in the Superbowl, but now that's not going to happen. I could root for Jags owner Shad Khan, who tried to buy the Rams and would have probably kept them in St. Louis, being a southern Illinois guy. I could also see rooting for another fun upset by Buffalo. As a tiebreaker, I'll use Richie Incognito. Go Jaguars.

Carolina at New Orleans: I still can't really root for either of these teams from their days in the old NFC West with the Rams. Division rivalries are strong. I figure Cam Newton's pretty young and will have more chances, so I'll root for old guy Drew Brees to get at least one more shot. Go Saints.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE13-30.781++++++81.7045.3924.48
PHI13-30.784++++++72.2440.2221.71
MIN13-30.773++++++62.1533.9817.83
JAC10-60.787++++85.9953.2830.2316.57
PIT13-30.693++++++42.9619.418.33
NO11-50.719++++65.2427.9313.346.07
ATL10-60.583-++++27.769.162.91
CAR11-50.576-++34.769.923.311.03
TEN9-70.453-++++20.034.430.97
BUF9-70.375-++14.012.030.540.09
LAR11-50.751++++----
LAC9-70.694------
BAL9-70.686------
KC10-60.645++++----
SEA9-70.571------
DET9-70.564------
DAL9-70.547------
WAS7-90.408------
TB5-110.404------
SF6-100.394------
GB7-90.369------
CIN7-90.367------
CHI5-110.362------
ARI8-80.355------
OAK6-100.347------
NYJ5-110.325------
HOU4-120.321------
DEN5-110.305------
MIA6-100.271------
IND4-120.220------
NYG3-130.207------
CLE0-160.160------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage: Philadelphia (Week 16, Final)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 16, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 17, Final] Philadelphia over New England

2018-01-01

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 17, Final

Philadelphia over New England

The regular season is over and the playoffs are set. No team is completely running away with the title, but New England is the favored champ, followed by Philadelphia. It always helps at this juncture to have a first round bye, and thus a 100% chance of making the next round, as compared to Jacksonville's 86%, for example. It took 10 wins to make the playoffs in the NFC, and 9 along with some tiebreakers in the AFC. Tennessee and Buffalo made AFC wildcard slots, while Baltimore and LA did not.

You can see my projections below, but in the playoffs I always state my rooting interests too. Usually very few teams playing this first weekend will be likely to be even in a conference title game, but upsets do happen.

Tennessee at Kansas City: I've got to root for the Chiefs as the geographically closest team to me now, and the only other team I've seen in their home stadium.

Atlanta at Los Angeles: It's hard to bring myself to root for the Rams so soon after they abandoned St. Louis. I would kind of like to see their mismatched jersey and helmet if an AFC team chooses to wear white in the Superbowl, though, and I'm indifferent to Atlanta, so what the heck, go LA.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE13-30.781++++++72.9240.4321.46
PHI13-30.784++++++66.3535.8119.49
JAC10-60.787++++85.9953.3130.1016.24
MIN13-30.773++++++56.0029.9915.86
LAR11-50.751++++68.2732.0015.967.95
PIT13-30.693++++++41.2318.437.73
NO11-50.719++++65.2427.2412.365.66
KC10-60.645++++68.6824.269.173.38
CAR11-50.576-++34.769.602.970.93
ATL10-60.583-++31.738.812.900.93
TEN9-70.453-++31.326.261.390.29
BUF9-70.375-++14.012.020.490.08
LAC9-70.694------
BAL9-70.686------
SEA9-70.571------
DET9-70.564------
DAL9-70.547------
WAS7-90.408------
TB5-110.404------
SF6-100.394------
GB7-90.369------
CIN7-90.367------
CHI5-110.362------
ARI8-80.355------
OAK6-100.347------
NYJ5-110.325------
HOU4-120.321------
DEN5-110.305------
MIA6-100.271------
IND4-120.220------
NYG3-130.207------
CLE0-160.160------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage: Philadelphia (Week 16, Final)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 12, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 13, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 14, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 15, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Saturday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 16, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 16, Final] Philadelphia over New England

2017-12-31

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 18

We've got a new #1! Of course, this isn't exactly fair because the Bowl Season is analogous to having a single week split up over about a month. But, Wisconsin, who I had at #4 to finish the season, but the committee did not see fit to put into the playoff, won their bowl against #11 Miami, to give them a strong strength of schedule boost, in addition to being the only 13-win team. UCF could see a similar boost on Monday, but against a slightly worse opponent. Ohio State also won their bowl over a strong USC team to jump over the playoff teams of Alabama and Oklahoma.

There are just 6 games left. 5 are Monday, including the 2 semifinals, with the championship game on the following Monday.

1Wisconsin13-1
2Georgia12-1
3Clemson12-1
4UCF12-0
5Ohio State12-2
6Oklahoma12-1
7Alabama11-1
8Penn State11-2
9USC11-3
10Florida Atlantic11-3
11TCU11-3
12Boise State11-3
13Miami10-3
14Toledo11-3
15Auburn10-3
16Michigan State10-3
17Washington10-3
18Troy11-2
19Notre Dame9-3
20Northwestern10-3
21Oklahoma State10-3
22Memphis10-3
23NC State9-4
24Army10-3
25San Diego State10-3
26Stanford9-5
27Mississippi State9-4
28South Florida10-2
29Fresno State10-4
30Washington State9-4
31Virginia Tech9-4
32LSU9-3
33Iowa8-5
34North Texas9-5
35Wake Forest8-5
36South Carolina8-4
37Iowa State8-5
38Michigan8-4
39Ohio9-4
40Louisville8-5
41Kansas State8-5
42Appalachian State9-4
43Boston College7-6
44Northern Illinois8-5
45Arizona State7-6
46Marshall8-5
47Oregon7-6
48Florida Intl8-5
49Florida State7-6
50Navy7-6
51Texas A&M7-6
52Duke7-6
53Central Michigan8-5
54Kentucky7-6
55Purdue7-6
56Wyoming8-5
57Southern Mississippi8-5
58Utah7-6
59Houston7-5
60Texas7-6
61SMU7-6
62West Virginia7-6
63Arizona7-6
64Temple7-6
65Missouri7-6
66Akron7-7
67UAB8-5
68Louisiana Tech7-6
69UCLA6-7
70Texas Tech6-7
71Ole Miss6-6
72Middle Tennessee7-6
73Virginia6-7
74Georgia State7-5
75Georgia Tech5-6
76Western Michigan6-6
77Colorado State7-6
78Arkansas State7-5
79Buffalo6-6
80New Mexico State7-6
81Tulane5-7
82UT San Antonio6-5
83California5-7
84Pittsburgh5-7
85Vanderbilt5-7
86Utah State6-7
87Indiana5-7
88Minnesota5-7
89Syracuse4-8
90Colorado5-7
91Air Force5-7
92Western Kentucky6-7
93Maryland4-8
94Florida4-7
95Eastern Michigan5-7
96Miami (OH)5-7
97Nebraska4-8
98Old Dominion5-7
99Arkansas4-8
100Cincinnati4-8
101UNLV5-7
102Tennessee4-8
103Rutgers4-8
104Louisiana5-7
105Louisiana Monroe4-8
106Idaho4-8
106North Carolina3-9
108South Alabama4-8
109East Carolina3-9
110BYU4-9
111UMass4-8
112Connecticut3-9
113Nevada3-9
114New Mexico3-9
115Hawai'i3-9
116Bowling Green2-10
117Coastal Carolina3-9
118Tulsa2-10
118Kent State2-10
120Illinois2-10
121Georgia Southern2-10
122Ball State2-10
123Baylor1-11
124Kansas1-11
125Charlotte1-11
126San Jose State2-11
127Texas State2-10
128Oregon State1-11
129Rice1-11
130UTEP0-12

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia
Week 4 Georgia
Week 5 Georgia
Week 6 Georgia
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Georgia
Week 10 Georgia
Week 11 Alabama
Week 12 Alabama
Week 13 Wisconsin
Week 14 Georgia
Week 15 Georgia
Week 16 Georgia
Week 17 Georgia