2016-10-07

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 5, Thursday

Minnesota over Denver

Not much changed last night with two 1-3 teams playing each other. Both were NFC West teams, too, so very few teams were affected much at all when Arizona beat San Francisco. I feel like there have been a disproportionate number of meaningless games on Thursdays and Mondays this season, which is unfortunate for NFL fans as there is only one game on those days.

There are enough teams now with sub-1% chances at the Superbowl that I'm going to have to start doing more and more simulations to ensure anyone with a mathematical possibility of winning it does at least one time in each run.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI3-00.58957.5178.1361.7234.3118.6710.30
MIN4-00.58678.5990.3476.5742.6323.1412.70
DEN4-00.58567.1687.1774.0042.2423.6812.59
SEA3-10.56451.5965.9746.8724.3312.486.57
PIT3-10.55349.4071.6453.1628.0014.487.23
NE3-10.55054.6669.6550.6526.4913.646.78
ARI2-30.54818.4334.3421.1210.455.192.65
DAL3-10.54829.0861.3241.0620.4910.205.21
BUF2-20.54433.4848.8831.7216.208.234.04
ATL3-10.53768.4173.1947.6523.1411.145.56
BAL3-10.52838.5961.1242.4921.1110.344.92
SD1-30.5214.9818.7110.885.222.541.19
GB2-10.51615.8343.3325.6811.845.502.63
OAK3-10.50319.4452.6533.3115.427.213.25
CIN2-20.49111.2226.1115.046.823.091.35
HOU3-10.48960.9165.1338.5417.287.733.38
DET1-30.4873.1011.075.672.451.070.48
CAR1-30.48512.7918.519.293.961.710.76
KC2-20.4818.4226.0014.466.372.841.22
WAS2-20.4776.3020.4610.804.571.950.86
NO1-30.47611.1915.567.673.211.350.59
IND1-30.47315.0219.7110.014.301.860.78
NYG2-20.4727.1121.7811.314.721.980.86
LA3-10.46627.6944.9425.3710.454.301.84
MIA1-30.4595.2310.215.172.180.930.38
JAC1-30.45113.4516.137.633.111.280.51
NYJ1-30.4506.6410.615.292.190.910.36
SF1-40.4482.294.241.900.740.290.12
TEN1-30.44710.6214.046.632.681.090.43
CLE0-40.4280.792.221.020.400.160.06
CHI1-30.4272.486.933.101.160.440.17
TB1-30.4207.609.914.221.540.570.22

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver

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