Superbowl LI Projection, Week 5, Thursday

Minnesota over Denver

Not much changed last night with two 1-3 teams playing each other. Both were NFC West teams, too, so very few teams were affected much at all when Arizona beat San Francisco. I feel like there have been a disproportionate number of meaningless games on Thursdays and Mondays this season, which is unfortunate for NFL fans as there is only one game on those days.

There are enough teams now with sub-1% chances at the Superbowl that I'm going to have to start doing more and more simulations to ensure anyone with a mathematical possibility of winning it does at least one time in each run.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	3-0	0.589	57.51	78.13	61.72	34.31	18.67	10.30
MIN	4-0	0.586	78.59	90.34	76.57	42.63	23.14	12.70
DEN	4-0	0.585	67.16	87.17	74.00	42.24	23.68	12.59
SEA	3-1	0.564	51.59	65.97	46.87	24.33	12.48	6.57
PIT	3-1	0.553	49.40	71.64	53.16	28.00	14.48	7.23
NE	3-1	0.550	54.66	69.65	50.65	26.49	13.64	6.78
ARI	2-3	0.548	18.43	34.34	21.12	10.45	5.19	2.65
DAL	3-1	0.548	29.08	61.32	41.06	20.49	10.20	5.21
BUF	2-2	0.544	33.48	48.88	31.72	16.20	8.23	4.04
ATL	3-1	0.537	68.41	73.19	47.65	23.14	11.14	5.56
BAL	3-1	0.528	38.59	61.12	42.49	21.11	10.34	4.92
SD	1-3	0.521	4.98	18.71	10.88	5.22	2.54	1.19
GB	2-1	0.516	15.83	43.33	25.68	11.84	5.50	2.63
OAK	3-1	0.503	19.44	52.65	33.31	15.42	7.21	3.25
CIN	2-2	0.491	11.22	26.11	15.04	6.82	3.09	1.35
HOU	3-1	0.489	60.91	65.13	38.54	17.28	7.73	3.38
DET	1-3	0.487	3.10	11.07	5.67	2.45	1.07	0.48
CAR	1-3	0.485	12.79	18.51	9.29	3.96	1.71	0.76
KC	2-2	0.481	8.42	26.00	14.46	6.37	2.84	1.22
WAS	2-2	0.477	6.30	20.46	10.80	4.57	1.95	0.86
NO	1-3	0.476	11.19	15.56	7.67	3.21	1.35	0.59
IND	1-3	0.473	15.02	19.71	10.01	4.30	1.86	0.78
NYG	2-2	0.472	7.11	21.78	11.31	4.72	1.98	0.86
LA	3-1	0.466	27.69	44.94	25.37	10.45	4.30	1.84
MIA	1-3	0.459	5.23	10.21	5.17	2.18	0.93	0.38
JAC	1-3	0.451	13.45	16.13	7.63	3.11	1.28	0.51
NYJ	1-3	0.450	6.64	10.61	5.29	2.19	0.91	0.36
SF	1-4	0.448	2.29	4.24	1.90	0.74	0.29	0.12
TEN	1-3	0.447	10.62	14.04	6.63	2.68	1.09	0.43
CLE	0-4	0.428	0.79	2.22	1.02	0.40	0.16	0.06
CHI	1-3	0.427	2.48	6.93	3.10	1.16	0.44	0.17
TB	1-3	0.420	7.60	9.91	4.22	1.54	0.57	0.22

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver