Going into Thursday, Philadelphia was just barely behind New York in strength, despite being 5 games back. They're now actually ahead of the Giants, but all that makes them is the strongest team already eliminated from the playoffs. If I adjusted for homefield advantage, which I'm strongly considering in version 0.2 of my software, they might have even been favored.
FiveThirtyEight helpfully cleared up my Carolina conundrum. As it turns out, they just need Washington to tie against either Chicago or the Giants. They also need a bunch of other games to go just right so that there's a 5-way tie, which they'll come out of on top. It's an exceedingly unlikely scenario, and I've given each game a 1% chance of a tie yet again, to keep Carolina properly alive. They use slightly different projection models than I do, so FiveThirtyEight has Cleveland about 65% likely to go 0-16, while my numbers (that I don't publish, but my software does output) show about a 73% chance.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 12-2 | 0.756 | ++ | ++ | ++ | 70.58 | 48.20 | 29.67 |
| DAL | 12-2 | 0.710 | ++ | ++ | ++ | 66.32 | 38.90 | 20.96 |
| SEA | 9-4-1 | 0.649 | ++ | ++ | 89.83 | 48.81 | 23.68 | 11.19 |
| ATL | 9-5 | 0.667 | 82.08 | 97.14 | 69.93 | 36.68 | 19.04 | 9.36 |
| OAK | 11-3 | 0.574 | 66.22 | ++ | 85.00 | 39.42 | 14.59 | 6.05 |
| PIT | 9-5 | 0.634 | 70.37 | 87.05 | 53.46 | 27.39 | 12.16 | 5.78 |
| KC | 10-4 | 0.598 | 33.78 | 97.37 | 68.41 | 30.97 | 12.79 | 5.59 |
| NYG | 10-5 | 0.542 | - | 99.60 | 47.27 | 16.62 | 6.48 | 2.39 |
| DET | 9-5 | 0.536 | 57.06 | 77.30 | 39.13 | 14.05 | 5.31 | 1.92 |
| BAL | 8-6 | 0.597 | 29.63 | 45.05 | 22.82 | 10.08 | 4.27 | 1.87 |
| GB | 8-6 | 0.544 | 42.94 | 55.66 | 26.89 | 9.47 | 3.70 | 1.37 |
| TEN | 8-6 | 0.533 | 52.95 | 53.88 | 24.38 | 8.57 | 3.16 | 1.19 |
| MIA | 9-5 | 0.502 | - | 49.71 | 20.98 | 6.07 | 2.29 | 0.79 |
| DEN | 8-6 | 0.595 | - | 16.88 | 8.10 | 2.61 | 1.34 | 0.58 |
| TB | 8-6 | 0.482 | 17.92 | 43.61 | 16.65 | 5.01 | 1.72 | 0.54 |
| WAS | 7-6-1 | 0.504 | - | 22.69 | 8.70 | 2.56 | 0.99 | 0.33 |
| HOU | 8-6 | 0.396 | 43.55 | 44.83 | 14.46 | 3.50 | 0.88 | 0.23 |
| IND | 7-7 | 0.543 | 3.50 | 4.11 | 1.88 | 0.65 | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| MIN | 7-7 | 0.512 | - | 3.87 | 1.54 | 0.46 | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| BUF | 7-7 | 0.585 | - | 1.12 | 0.50 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| NO | 6-8 | 0.523 | - | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| CAR | 6-8 | 0.472 | - | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| PHI | 6-9 | 0.547 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ARI | 5-8-1 | 0.529 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SD | 5-9 | 0.500 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CIN | 5-8-1 | 0.489 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CHI | 3-11 | 0.341 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| JAC | 2-12 | 0.304 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NYJ | 4-10 | 0.270 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SF | 1-13 | 0.224 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LA | 4-10 | 0.219 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CLE | 0-14 | 0.182 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: New England (Week 15, Sunday)
First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)
[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Final] New England over Dallas
Love the new sorting!! 😁 🏈
ReplyDelete