Superbowl LI Projection, Week 8, Sunday

New England over Dallas

New England got two more mentions in my milestones board below, for being the first to cross a 99% playoff probability and first to a 20% Championship probability. And Dallas took over the NFC lead for now, though Minnnesota is yet to play on Monday night. They are very favored to win that game, though, so it may take a blowout to take back the NFC lead.

I've been watching a lot of baseball lately, and I guess less football, because I was totally unaware there was another London game this week. I turned on the TV somtime in the morning, and saw game action going on. I figured it was highlights, but after about 30 seconds of no dramatic action, I realized they were live. The result, as you may already know, was a tie. I bet it's been a long time since the NFL has seen ties in consecutive weeks, and it may have never happened since the advent of overtime. It should simplify the playoff pictures a little bit, since fewer tiebreakers will need to be invoked unless 2 or more of the NFC teams with ties are involved. In the AFC, Cincinnati won't be tied in the standings with anyone unless there is yet another tie game, though they're not quite in playoff position for that to matter.

In city of Cleveland news, they've got a 63.02% chance of winning the World Series, and a 3.53% chance of having an 0-16 football team, for a total 2.22% chance of the rare "Two Championships and an 0-fer" trifecta.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	7-1	0.658	97.13	99.21	97.32	60.87	36.64	21.22
PHI	4-3	0.623	15.51	59.50	39.72	21.63	11.94	6.28
DEN	6-2	0.622	48.42	86.31	70.56	40.55	21.36	11.55
DAL	6-1	0.610	74.92	94.14	82.32	45.69	24.63	12.63
MIN	5-1	0.606	80.81	91.88	79.55	44.02	23.32	11.87
ARI	3-4-1	0.588	31.01	39.96	23.41	11.80	6.00	2.94
BUF	4-4	0.576	1.64	35.54	21.17	9.59	4.70	2.32
KC	5-2	0.561	29.88	71.12	50.13	24.39	11.14	5.33
SEA	4-2-1	0.559	61.73	68.89	42.87	20.54	9.79	4.52
ATL	5-3	0.547	69.07	74.58	46.62	21.59	9.95	4.47
PIT	4-3	0.541	65.95	69.35	39.23	17.55	7.74	3.54
GB	4-3	0.532	14.04	44.03	24.90	11.15	5.00	2.17
SD	3-5	0.522	0.35	9.57	5.12	2.02	0.88	0.39
OAK	6-2	0.521	21.35	65.70	43.26	18.80	7.86	3.45
TEN	4-4	0.498	27.65	34.21	17.03	6.72	2.70	1.12
WAS	4-3-1	0.494	3.48	26.16	12.97	5.26	2.18	0.87
CAR	2-5	0.492	3.94	6.19	2.80	1.12	0.46	0.18
DET	4-4	0.486	5.06	20.00	10.13	4.08	1.65	0.65
BAL	3-4	0.486	19.73	22.30	10.33	3.96	1.56	0.63
NYG	4-3	0.481	6.09	28.00	14.10	5.58	2.24	0.86
NO	3-4	0.478	16.00	21.99	10.42	4.06	1.61	0.62
MIA	3-4	0.472	1.02	11.01	5.54	2.00	0.78	0.30
IND	3-5	0.463	10.01	11.95	5.11	1.80	0.67	0.25
CIN	3-4-1	0.454	14.28	16.50	6.91	2.43	0.89	0.33
TB	3-4	0.431	10.99	14.15	5.92	2.05	0.72	0.25
HOU	5-3	0.428	58.77	61.51	26.19	8.69	2.89	1.01
LA	3-4	0.422	6.94	9.87	4.05	1.38	0.48	0.16
JAC	2-5	0.396	3.57	3.85	1.36	0.40	0.13	0.04
NYJ	3-5	0.386	0.22	1.82	0.74	0.22	0.07	0.02
SF	1-6	0.378	0.32	0.39	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00
CHI	1-6	0.378	0.08	0.28	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-8	0.363	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota