2016-12-06

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 13, Final

New England over Dallas

The Jets lost and ended any hopes of making the playoffs. Somewhat interestingly, Miami and Buffalo both lost ground in the divisional race, even though they and New England all play the Jets one more time each. That's because New England is projected to be even more likely to beat them now, which will eliminate Buffalo no matter their other results, and force Miami to beat New England on tiebreakers. Let's be realistic though, New England is going to win the AFC East.

Indianapolis was the winner last night, and with a 31 point victory they brought their point differential to exactly 0, hence why they are listed at .500 in strength. A team that gives as many points as it gets is expected to win about half the time on average, which Indianapolis has done, going 6-6 so far.

This Thursday will be one of the best Thursday matchups we've seen this season, KC vs Oakland. Neither team will be eliminated, and most likely both will eventually make the playoffs along with their division rival Denver.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE10-20.71499.2199.7399.1364.1641.0623.95
DAL11-10.69298.65++99.2465.2838.1621.21
SEA8-3-10.66298.6999.3592.2056.2329.3915.33
DEN8-40.6205.5365.4138.8618.378.994.32
BAL7-50.61551.3157.9431.6914.917.253.44
PIT7-50.61248.1360.0932.4915.427.343.46
ATL7-50.58576.6488.4752.4322.239.974.40
KC9-30.58336.3991.9767.2931.6113.375.91
OAK10-20.57958.0899.1081.4739.0816.217.11
MIN6-60.5615.3229.8814.915.622.461.03
BUF6-60.5600.007.293.391.340.590.25
ARI5-6-10.5531.3110.935.261.970.860.35
DET8-40.55184.2290.2053.9221.398.743.57
PHI5-70.550-2.321.120.410.170.07
SD5-70.526-0.530.230.080.030.01
TEN6-60.52225.1526.4511.634.351.660.64
NO5-70.5204.967.273.441.180.460.18
NYG8-40.5191.3568.4532.0911.034.321.63
WAS6-5-10.515-37.2616.765.602.210.83
IND6-60.50040.7641.0616.996.012.160.78
GB6-60.48710.4617.127.642.420.870.31
TB7-50.48418.3148.5620.926.622.380.82
CIN4-7-10.4690.550.570.220.070.030.01
MIA7-50.4520.7915.576.161.940.640.21
CAR4-80.4300.090.180.070.020.010.00
HOU6-60.38334.0934.2910.452.670.690.18
CHI3-90.351-0.000.000.000.000.00
JAC2-100.326------
LA4-80.309-0.020.000.000.000.00
NYJ3-90.299------
SF1-110.277------
CLE0-120.237------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Dallas

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