Superbowl LI Projection, Week 7, Sunday

New England over Minnesota

Philadelphia beat Minnesota, knocking them below Arizona by strength, but Minnesota is still the NFC favorite due to their 1 game lead on Philadelphia, and the fact that Dallas is actually 1 game ahead in the NFC East.

Speaking of Arizona, how about that tie? I didn't actually turn the game on until what must have been right after Seattle's field goal with 4 minutes to play, and saw the 3-3 tie. I thought to myself, I have to watch this, we might see a tie. I like unusual things I guess. So I watched the rest of the game, rooting for a tie the whole time. I may be the only guy in the country who cheered for both missed field goals in overtime. Mike Tirico then let us know that this was the first touchdown-free tie since 1972, which had the then-St. Louis Cardinals tie 6-6 against Philadelphia. Back then there wasn't yet overtime in the NFL, so that game was only 60 minutes.

In Cleveland news, how cool will it be for them to hold championships in two major sports while having an 0-16 football team? They've already got basketball, and I give the football team a 1.76% shot of helping that goal. Baseball's a bit more in the likely range, at 27.43% at my last projection. Overall that's just a 0.48% shot, assuming those are two uncorrelated weighted random variables.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	6-1	0.638	81.81	96.93	90.19	54.81	33.42	18.57
PHI	4-2	0.630	34.79	66.72	50.13	28.22	15.74	8.80
ARI	3-3-1	0.610	34.55	50.31	32.70	17.40	9.24	4.97
BUF	4-3	0.607	16.43	59.04	40.90	21.83	12.13	6.34
MIN	5-1	0.606	73.13	87.96	73.71	40.19	21.20	11.33
DAL	5-1	0.600	52.36	81.89	64.62	34.28	17.93	9.46
SEA	4-1-1	0.574	61.93	73.95	51.86	25.88	12.71	6.38
DEN	4-2	0.569	34.00	62.52	46.97	24.61	12.08	5.85
ATL	4-3	0.545	61.82	64.99	36.76	16.83	7.70	3.64
PIT	4-3	0.540	64.87	69.06	42.08	20.52	9.50	4.33
GB	4-2	0.536	18.43	49.66	29.75	13.43	6.05	2.81
SD	3-4	0.535	7.22	24.31	14.85	6.94	3.21	1.44
KC	4-2	0.528	31.24	57.00	38.71	18.54	8.27	3.67
OAK	5-2	0.511	27.55	58.59	39.92	18.25	7.84	3.34
DET	4-3	0.500	8.38	29.44	15.78	6.56	2.73	1.17
WAS	4-3	0.494	6.26	23.08	12.08	4.95	2.05	0.87
IND	3-4	0.490	18.50	24.64	12.58	5.27	2.19	0.89
BAL	3-4	0.486	21.07	24.48	11.96	5.06	2.11	0.85
NYG	4-3	0.481	6.59	21.63	11.09	4.42	1.77	0.73
CAR	1-5	0.475	2.52	3.07	1.29	0.50	0.19	0.08
MIA	3-4	0.472	1.57	12.62	6.43	2.52	1.05	0.41
NO	2-4	0.471	12.78	14.92	6.55	2.51	0.97	0.39
TEN	3-4	0.468	14.87	20.47	9.99	3.98	1.57	0.61
HOU	4-2	0.455	58.16	62.03	33.27	13.15	4.94	1.84
CIN	3-4	0.453	13.91	17.47	7.81	3.03	1.17	0.43
TB	3-3	0.441	22.87	25.83	10.99	3.91	1.40	0.52
LA	3-4	0.422	3.40	6.21	2.57	0.88	0.31	0.11
JAC	2-4	0.418	8.48	9.44	3.79	1.32	0.46	0.16
NYJ	2-5	0.380	0.18	1.24	0.50	0.16	0.05	0.02
SF	1-6	0.378	0.11	0.16	0.05	0.02	0.00	0.00
CHI	1-6	0.378	0.06	0.19	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-7	0.368	0.14	0.15	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota