Superbowl LI Projection, Week 7, Final

New England over Minnesota

Denver over Houston didn't shake things up too much, but made Denver stronger and Houston weaker by a few places each. Denver is now the second most likely AFC representative in the Superbowl, and Houston is pretty far down the list despite their winning record. That's because they've got a negative point differential, which is related to what my strength is measured on.

In case you're curious, the lowest Superbowl chances obviously belong to one of the 3 teams at the bottom displaying a 0.00, and the least likely of all is Cleveland, with an 0.001214% chance, which is just about 1 in 823. They're not completely out, but since a 9-7 team can and does miss the playoffs in many years, they're certainly not in control of their own destiny.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	6-1	0.638	81.36	96.58	90.02	54.28	32.16	17.87
PHI	4-2	0.630	34.79	66.55	50.01	28.16	15.70	8.64
ARI	3-3-1	0.610	34.55	50.12	32.57	17.34	9.21	4.87
BUF	4-3	0.606	16.82	58.14	40.95	21.56	11.67	6.10
DEN	5-2	0.606	46.93	77.41	63.62	36.00	18.94	9.90
MIN	5-1	0.606	72.63	87.80	73.52	40.09	21.15	11.11
DAL	5-1	0.600	52.36	81.76	64.53	34.25	17.91	9.28
SEA	4-1-1	0.574	61.93	73.83	51.76	25.84	12.70	6.25
ATL	4-3	0.545	62.03	65.15	36.85	16.87	7.72	3.58
PIT	4-3	0.540	64.64	68.64	41.07	19.33	8.83	4.02
GB	4-2	0.536	18.78	50.37	30.27	13.67	6.16	2.80
SD	3-4	0.535	5.73	23.09	14.14	6.44	2.93	1.32
KC	4-2	0.528	24.85	53.95	36.69	17.10	7.52	3.33
OAK	5-2	0.511	22.50	56.14	37.90	16.82	7.12	3.04
DET	4-3	0.500	8.53	30.04	16.13	6.70	2.79	1.17
WAS	4-3	0.494	6.27	22.92	12.01	4.93	2.04	0.84
IND	3-4	0.490	25.32	29.33	14.40	5.85	2.38	0.97
BAL	3-4	0.486	20.99	24.11	11.64	4.75	1.94	0.78
NYG	4-3	0.481	6.59	21.47	11.01	4.39	1.76	0.71
CAR	1-5	0.475	2.54	3.08	1.30	0.50	0.19	0.08
MIA	3-4	0.472	1.63	12.12	6.32	2.43	0.98	0.38
NO	2-4	0.471	12.48	14.53	6.37	2.44	0.94	0.37
TEN	3-4	0.468	19.88	23.57	11.10	4.30	1.67	0.64
CIN	3-4	0.453	14.23	17.73	7.78	2.90	1.10	0.41
TB	3-3	0.441	22.95	25.87	11.00	3.92	1.40	0.51
LA	3-4	0.422	3.41	6.18	2.56	0.88	0.31	0.11
JAC	2-4	0.418	11.42	12.05	4.66	1.58	0.54	0.18
HOU	4-3	0.415	43.38	45.86	19.19	6.49	2.18	0.73
NYJ	2-5	0.380	0.19	1.15	0.47	0.14	0.05	0.01
SF	1-6	0.378	0.11	0.16	0.05	0.02	0.00	0.00
CHI	1-6	0.378	0.06	0.19	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-7	0.368	0.14	0.14	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota