2021-09-28

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 3, Final

Denver over Carolina

Dallas beat Philadelphia, but it would have taken a huge margin to raise them up to Carolina's level, and the NFC and Super Bowl projection overall remain the same.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
DEN3-00.58249.685.661.835.119.710.7
CAR3-00.57553.682.656.931.417.29.3
BUF2-10.57269.579.550.327.915.28.2
LAR3-00.55039.779.452.227.314.17.3
ARI3-00.55338.576.650.126.313.77.1
LV3-00.52931.376.648.124.112.05.9
NO2-10.56024.565.239.921.111.25.9
CLE2-10.54434.861.136.518.99.74.9
DAL2-10.53456.464.235.317.88.84.4
CIN2-10.53034.961.335.718.08.94.4
TB2-10.52119.753.429.414.37.03.4
SF2-10.52016.252.829.514.36.93.4
LAC2-10.51514.551.929.014.06.83.2
TEN2-10.47850.459.029.413.05.72.5
BAL2-10.49523.348.125.111.75.42.5
MIN1-20.51434.042.721.810.45.02.4
GB2-10.47443.351.424.410.74.62.0
NE1-20.50818.736.919.09.14.32.0
HOU1-20.48331.439.619.18.63.81.7
PHI1-20.50020.830.715.07.03.21.5
KC1-20.4964.625.412.96.02.81.3
SEA1-20.4935.625.112.65.82.61.2
WAS1-20.46115.923.410.54.51.90.8
PIT1-20.4657.021.29.94.31.90.8
MIA1-20.4378.919.98.53.41.40.6
CHI1-20.43315.120.28.43.31.30.5
IND0-30.4579.515.16.72.81.20.5
NYG0-30.4656.810.44.62.00.90.4
DET0-30.4577.611.04.82.00.80.4
JAC0-30.4418.712.55.32.10.90.4
ATL1-20.4322.211.04.71.90.70.3
NYJ0-30.4162.96.42.61.00.40.1

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina

2021-09-27

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Denver over Carolina

The teams stayed the same but the projection flipped, as Denver took back the top spot from Carolina. There are still 5 undefeated teams, and on the other end of the spectrum, 5 winless teams. New York got shut out to take over the title of weakest team, already down to a 6% chance of making the playoffs, and an 0.1% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
DEN3-00.58249.785.561.735.019.610.7
CAR3-00.57553.882.456.631.217.19.3
BUF2-10.57269.379.550.427.915.28.1
LAR3-00.55039.479.352.127.214.07.3
ARI3-00.55338.976.950.326.413.77.1
LV3-00.52931.476.548.024.112.05.9
NO2-10.56024.664.839.520.911.05.8
CLE2-10.54434.861.236.618.99.74.9
CIN2-10.52934.961.335.818.08.94.4
PHI1-10.54348.457.732.116.48.34.2
SF2-10.52016.152.829.514.36.93.4
TB2-10.52119.452.428.714.06.83.3
LAC2-10.51514.351.328.613.86.73.2
TEN2-10.47850.459.029.413.15.82.5
BAL2-10.49523.348.225.211.75.42.5
MIN1-20.51434.443.222.110.55.02.4
NE1-20.50818.937.419.39.24.42.1
GB2-10.47443.151.324.410.74.62.0
DAL1-10.50229.839.319.79.24.32.0
HOU1-20.48331.439.719.18.63.81.7
KC1-20.4964.625.312.96.02.81.3
SEA1-20.4935.625.012.65.72.61.2
PIT1-20.4657.021.310.04.31.90.8
WAS1-20.46115.322.710.24.31.80.8
MIA1-20.4378.919.98.53.41.40.6
CHI1-20.43315.020.18.43.31.30.5
IND0-30.4579.515.26.82.81.20.5
NYG0-30.4656.510.14.51.90.80.4
JAC0-30.4418.712.55.32.10.90.4
DET0-30.4577.410.64.61.90.80.3
ATL1-20.4322.311.34.81.90.80.3
NYJ0-30.4162.86.22.51.00.40.1

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver

2021-09-24

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 3, Thursday

Carolina over Denver

Thursday's game featured 2 teams that have both been in my Superbowl projection twice already in this young season. Carolina beat Houston easily, and takes an even stronger lead in the NFC and the league as a whole. They're somewhat helped by being the only 3-0 team, and one of only two to have played 3 games. Still, 3-0 is a solid start. I often hear stories quoted about how unlikely an 0-2 team is to make the playoffs, and other such stats illustrating how much we can learn about teams in just the first few weeks.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
CAR3-00.57555.382.157.232.017.810.0
DEN2-00.54539.473.249.326.614.37.4
LV2-00.52533.670.045.123.312.05.9
BUF1-10.54944.662.738.721.111.45.9
LAR2-00.53630.766.040.921.010.75.6
ARI2-00.53529.264.339.520.210.25.3
NE1-10.54135.957.735.018.810.05.1
TB2-00.53128.963.938.519.49.85.1
SF2-00.52327.464.438.919.49.64.9
PHI1-10.54341.453.430.415.88.14.3
NO1-10.53413.945.926.113.26.73.5
CLE1-10.50926.346.226.313.16.53.1
CIN1-10.50025.545.025.212.36.02.8
KC1-10.50413.741.423.411.55.72.7
SEA1-10.51512.740.022.110.85.22.6
PIT1-10.49624.043.824.011.65.62.6
LAC1-10.50213.240.422.811.25.52.6
BAL1-10.49324.243.823.911.55.52.6
DAL1-10.50225.336.218.58.84.22.0
HOU1-20.48331.439.419.99.34.42.0
TEN1-10.46933.742.821.69.84.42.0
WAS1-10.49424.336.518.58.74.01.9
GB1-10.47032.939.018.48.13.51.6
CHI1-10.46830.636.917.37.63.31.5
MIN0-20.49422.428.113.76.32.91.4
IND0-20.47419.927.913.86.42.91.3
MIA1-10.44513.129.113.96.02.61.1
JAC0-20.45915.020.89.84.31.90.8
DET0-20.46714.118.58.43.71.60.7
NYG0-20.4759.015.97.53.41.50.7
NYJ0-20.4516.315.57.33.21.40.6
ATL0-20.4471.98.94.01.70.70.3

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina

2021-09-21

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 2, Final

Denver over Carolina

Green Bay redeemed themselves a bit with a Monday night win over Detroit, but at 1-1 they had no significant effect on the NFC, and Denver over Carolina remains the Super Bowl projection.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
DEN2-00.54539.572.848.726.214.07.3
CAR2-00.54843.070.345.024.012.76.8
BUF1-10.54944.762.438.320.811.25.9
LV2-00.52533.769.544.522.911.75.9
LAR2-00.53630.566.441.921.711.25.8
ARI2-00.53529.565.240.921.110.85.6
TB2-00.53136.166.040.520.710.65.5
SF2-00.52327.364.939.920.110.15.1
NE1-10.54136.057.334.618.49.85.1
PHI1-10.54441.454.331.416.58.64.6
NO1-10.53418.247.527.514.17.33.8
HOU1-10.51043.353.429.414.67.23.5
CLE1-10.50926.345.925.912.96.43.1
CIN1-10.50025.544.624.812.15.82.8
SEA1-10.51512.640.522.711.25.52.8
KC1-10.50413.840.922.911.25.52.6
PIT1-10.49624.043.423.711.45.52.6
BAL1-10.49324.243.423.511.35.42.5
LAC1-10.50213.039.522.010.85.32.5
DAL1-10.50225.337.119.39.34.42.2
WAS1-10.49424.237.419.39.24.32.1
TEN1-10.46928.239.319.89.04.01.8
GB1-10.47032.839.218.88.43.71.7
CHI1-10.46830.537.117.77.83.51.6
MIN0-20.49422.728.814.26.73.11.5
IND0-20.47416.425.312.55.72.61.2
MIA1-10.44513.128.613.65.92.51.1
DET0-20.46714.018.78.63.81.70.8
JAC0-20.45912.118.88.83.91.70.8
NYG0-20.4759.016.57.93.61.60.7
NYJ0-20.4516.215.07.03.11.30.6
ATL0-20.4472.79.84.41.90.80.3

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina

2021-09-20

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Denver over Carolina

With 2-0 records, Denver and Carolina have taken over the AFC and NFC leads, respectively. Philadelphia and Houston both lost to fall to 1-1 and back into the middle of the pack. We had our first shutout of the year, with Miami failing to score. Combined with their 1 point win last week, the 35 point loss puts them at a -34 point differential and the weakest 1-1 team, down below several 0-2 teams. But, it's still early, so don't place all your bets on Denver to cover your Philadelphia losses just yet.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
DEN2-00.54539.272.648.526.114.07.3
CAR2-00.54843.070.345.023.912.76.7
BUF1-10.54944.762.538.420.811.25.9
LV2-00.52533.969.744.623.011.85.9
LAR2-00.53630.466.041.521.511.15.8
ARI2-00.53529.464.840.420.810.75.6
TB2-00.53136.166.040.520.710.65.4
SF2-00.52327.665.039.920.010.05.1
NE1-10.54136.057.434.718.59.85.1
PHI1-10.54441.254.031.116.48.54.5
NO1-10.53418.247.427.414.17.23.7
HOU1-10.51043.353.529.514.67.23.5
CLE1-10.50926.345.725.812.86.33.1
CIN1-10.50025.544.424.712.05.82.8
SEA1-10.51512.640.022.411.05.42.7
KC1-10.50413.841.023.011.35.52.7
PIT1-10.49624.043.223.511.35.42.6
LAC1-10.50213.139.622.110.85.32.5
BAL1-10.49324.243.223.311.25.32.5
DAL1-10.50225.437.219.39.34.42.2
WAS1-10.49424.337.419.39.14.32.1
TEN1-10.46928.239.419.89.04.11.8
DET0-10.49127.734.417.18.03.71.8
CHI1-10.46828.635.516.97.53.31.5
MIN0-20.49421.227.413.56.33.01.4
GB0-10.47122.528.413.56.02.71.2
IND0-20.47416.425.412.65.72.61.2
MIA1-10.44513.128.713.75.92.51.1
JAC0-20.45912.118.88.83.91.70.8
NYG0-20.4759.116.67.93.61.60.7
NYJ0-20.4516.215.07.03.11.30.6
ATL0-20.4472.69.74.41.90.80.3

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston

2021-09-17

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 2, Thursday

Philadelphia over Houston

For the second year in a row (see 2020 here) my least favorite projection day doesn't include a 2-0 team that artificially appears in much better position than they are. Both Washington and New York were 0-1 going into last night, so this was inevitable. We do have New York artificially low as the only 0-2 team, but no one's really paying attention to the bottom of the table, right?

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI1-00.52946.663.038.520.110.55.5
NO1-00.52935.061.338.019.910.35.4
HOU1-00.52149.964.338.920.210.45.3
LAR1-00.52626.958.135.718.59.55.0
DEN1-00.52428.357.035.118.39.64.9
ARI1-00.52726.756.634.618.09.34.9
PIT1-00.51535.958.435.218.19.24.7
SEA1-00.52024.454.032.516.68.54.4
MIA1-00.50342.658.634.017.08.54.2
LV1-00.50924.253.531.816.18.14.0
CAR1-00.51328.653.231.315.87.94.0
CIN1-00.50533.053.831.515.87.93.9
LAC1-00.51023.751.430.515.47.83.9
KC1-00.50623.852.931.215.77.93.9
SF1-00.50922.051.930.515.27.63.8
TB1-00.50326.752.430.314.97.33.7
WAS1-10.49425.742.422.911.15.42.6
MIN0-10.49528.337.820.09.64.62.3
NE0-10.49719.134.418.69.14.52.2
DET0-10.49126.935.318.28.74.22.0
DAL0-10.49718.831.816.88.24.02.0
CLE0-10.49415.731.016.78.24.01.9
NYJ0-10.48719.032.917.58.44.11.9
BAL0-10.49115.430.916.58.03.91.9
BUF0-10.48519.331.616.57.93.81.8
IND0-10.48018.231.416.37.83.71.7
JAC0-10.47915.529.015.07.13.41.6
CHI0-10.47422.930.715.27.03.21.5
TEN0-10.47316.328.814.76.93.21.5
GB0-10.47121.929.214.36.53.01.4
ATL0-10.4719.723.912.05.52.51.2
NYG0-20.4748.918.49.14.22.00.9

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston

2021-09-14

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 1

Philadelphia over Houston

As is tradition, rather than re-explaining, allow me to copy and past from 2014's introductory post.
Each year I project the Super Bowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.
For the second year in a row, I needed to modify my software to accommodate some changes in the NFL. Last year they added 2 playoff teams, for a total of 14. This year each team plays 17 games. I had a lot of hard-coded 16s, as well as some other hard-coded numbers from 14 up to 23 to index into certain data structures. Avoid hard-coded constants for things that might ever change, kids. Hopefully that fix will bring me closer to my eventual goal of being able to project baseball, basketball, and hockey if I can figure out how to project overtime and shootouts.

The first week of the season is not terrible indicative of the outcome of the season, because of so much uncertainty remaining. For example, last year Tampa sat at 1.7% after a week 1 loss. But, by virtue of a 32-6 win, and a weaker division that New Orleans, who won 38-3, Philadelphia takes the NFC lead. Philadelphia is the only 1-0 team in the NFC East, while there are 3 1-0 teams in the NFC South. In the AFC, Houston is the only 1-0 team in the AFC South, which gives them a huge boost in playoff odds currently. Miami is in the same position, but only won by a point, putting their strength very near .500

All in all, don't place any wagers based on week 1. In fact, don't ever do that based on this amateur stuff.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI1-00.52947.363.338.720.210.55.5
NO1-00.52935.061.438.119.910.45.5
HOU1-00.52049.964.238.920.210.45.3
LAR1-00.52626.958.235.818.59.65.0
DEN1-00.52428.457.135.118.39.64.9
ARI1-00.52726.756.634.718.09.44.9
PIT1-00.51535.958.335.218.09.24.7
SEA1-00.52024.454.132.616.78.54.4
MIA1-00.50342.658.634.017.08.44.2
LV1-00.50924.253.531.816.18.14.1
CAR1-00.51328.653.331.415.88.04.0
CIN1-00.50533.053.831.515.87.93.9
LAC1-00.51023.651.430.415.47.83.9
KC1-00.50623.852.931.215.77.93.9
SF1-00.50922.052.030.615.37.63.9
TB1-00.50326.752.530.415.07.43.7
MIN0-10.49528.337.820.09.74.72.3
NE0-10.49719.134.418.69.14.52.2
DET0-10.49126.935.318.38.74.22.0
DAL0-10.49719.132.016.98.34.02.0
CLE0-10.49415.731.016.78.24.01.9
NYJ0-10.48719.032.917.58.44.11.9
WAS0-10.49018.332.116.98.13.91.9
BAL0-10.49115.430.916.58.03.91.9
BUF0-10.48519.331.716.57.93.81.8
IND0-10.48018.231.416.37.83.71.7
JAC0-10.48015.529.115.07.13.41.6
CHI0-10.47422.930.815.37.13.31.5
TEN0-10.47316.328.814.76.93.21.5
NYG0-10.47615.327.614.16.63.11.4
GB0-10.47121.929.214.36.63.01.4
ATL0-10.4719.724.012.15.62.61.2