Superbowl LI Projection, Week 12, Thursday

Dallas over New England

We had triple the chances of a meaningful Thursday game this week, with 3 Thanksgiving games played. We didn't get any huge changes, but Dallas solidified their position and cracked the three nines mark and is now 99.9% likely to make the playoffs. Although looking at my numbers with more decimal places, that's slightly rounded up. We can keep it our little secret. I really find myself rooting for Dallas to do well, especially with the outstanding play of their rookie QB. Pittsburgh was the other big winner on the day,, ,moving up to 68% likely to make the playoffs and the 6th strongest team. Detroit also won a game with possible tiebreaker implications to go up 1 game on Minnesota, which flipped the division in their favor.

I really hope San Francisco loses this week so I can stop mentioning the caveat that they are not actually eliminated, I just never got them to the playoffs in 2.1 billion weighted simulations this week. Chicago, Jacksonville, and the Jets may wind up with the faux elimination treatment after Sunday.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DAL	10-1	0.682	94.99	99.90	97.60	62.70	38.60	22.49
NE	8-2	0.671	93.97	98.40	96.21	60.33	36.94	20.69
PHI	5-5	0.616	0.23	28.70	16.57	7.64	4.01	2.05
SEA	7-2-1	0.606	95.38	97.57	88.59	49.84	23.65	11.85
DEN	7-3	0.606	23.63	70.86	51.52	26.89	13.46	6.61
PIT	6-5	0.591	64.27	68.39	38.85	19.01	9.31	4.43
ARI	4-5-1	0.579	4.47	16.15	9.31	4.18	1.99	0.94
KC	7-3	0.579	28.98	71.03	51.26	25.62	11.93	5.53
BUF	5-5	0.575	0.65	22.84	13.11	5.89	2.83	1.30
MIN	6-5	0.565	23.04	46.50	25.59	11.01	5.03	2.31
ATL	6-4	0.557	76.88	79.22	45.03	19.96	8.71	3.94
OAK	8-2	0.552	47.35	88.01	69.12	32.77	14.20	6.22
WAS	6-4-1	0.530	0.23	47.31	23.23	8.76	3.81	1.62
BAL	5-5	0.529	32.49	35.15	17.03	7.17	3.10	1.29
SD	4-6	0.523	0.03	2.91	1.44	0.56	0.24	0.10
DET	7-4	0.519	72.69	79.08	43.55	17.74	7.03	2.92
TEN	5-6	0.511	13.67	16.49	7.59	3.02	1.23	0.49
NYG	7-3	0.509	4.55	67.25	33.79	12.44	5.06	2.05
MIA	6-4	0.504	5.37	35.06	19.31	7.63	3.12	1.22
NO	4-6	0.498	8.76	10.95	5.02	1.84	0.72	0.28
CAR	4-6	0.496	3.81	5.47	2.48	0.89	0.35	0.14
TB	5-5	0.455	10.56	15.42	6.55	2.17	0.76	0.27
GB	4-6	0.448	4.23	5.47	2.30	0.73	0.25	0.09
IND	5-6	0.445	17.14	17.85	6.80	2.27	0.78	0.26
CIN	3-6-1	0.441	3.23	3.30	1.24	0.42	0.15	0.05
HOU	6-4	0.421	69.07	69.51	26.45	8.42	2.70	0.85
LA	4-6	0.398	0.15	0.98	0.37	0.10	0.03	0.01
NYJ	3-7	0.365	0.01	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00
JAC	2-8	0.362	0.13	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
CHI	2-8	0.328	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	1-9	0.323	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-11	0.262	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England