Superbowl LI Projection, Week 10, Sunday

Dallas over New England

Dallas won and New England lost, swapping their positions in my strength ratings, and thus also inverting my Superbowl projection. I think I could root for Dallas in the Superbowl. After all, I did it back in the early 90s before St. Louis got a team. I even had a Troy Aikman poster in my room at one point.

With 1 8-win team and 2 8+ loss teams, we're getting ever closer to our first real elimination. I ran 1 billion simulations this week, and as you can see Cleveland won their division in at least one of them, but never won the Superbowl. As I always feel the need to point out, if you can make the playoffs, you have some chance of being champion, so the zero chances of them winning it all, or the AFC, or even making the AFC championship, aren't quite accurate. But, in my billion weighted random samples, it never happened, so don't bet on them unless someone gives you 1000000000:1 odds or better.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DAL	8-1	0.656	87.89	98.63	93.46	56.83	33.95	19.38
NE	7-2	0.649	93.40	97.42	93.42	57.16	34.04	18.86
PHI	5-4	0.634	3.53	49.58	30.82	16.07	8.97	4.91
DEN	7-3	0.606	24.17	74.02	53.50	28.70	14.97	7.62
ARI	4-4-1	0.595	18.29	37.48	24.64	12.56	6.23	3.15
SEA	6-2-1	0.582	80.38	89.22	74.69	39.39	18.65	9.20
KC	7-2	0.582	44.63	83.07	64.28	33.86	16.47	7.98
BUF	4-5	0.564	1.10	18.01	10.28	4.71	2.27	1.06
MIN	5-4	0.559	48.48	56.58	33.71	15.70	7.19	3.38
ATL	6-4	0.557	73.97	77.30	47.40	22.36	10.12	4.74
BAL	5-4	0.554	56.93	58.80	32.15	14.81	6.97	3.19
OAK	7-2	0.540	31.16	80.28	56.51	26.13	11.57	5.12
TEN	5-5	0.524	21.01	27.81	14.29	6.10	2.66	1.14
SD	4-6	0.523	0.04	3.69	1.90	0.77	0.35	0.15
PIT	4-5	0.516	27.16	31.13	14.95	6.29	2.72	1.14
WAS	5-3-1	0.506	2.69	41.27	20.48	7.98	3.35	1.40
NO	4-5	0.503	17.50	22.15	10.91	4.43	1.80	0.75
DET	5-4	0.498	37.02	46.27	24.57	9.92	3.93	1.62
MIA	5-4	0.496	5.47	25.51	14.24	5.82	2.42	0.97
NYG	5-3	0.493	5.90	47.34	24.12	9.17	3.72	1.51
CAR	3-6	0.491	2.31	3.44	1.54	0.59	0.24	0.10
GB	4-5	0.480	14.17	17.79	8.12	3.07	1.18	0.46
IND	4-5	0.471	11.41	14.05	6.14	2.28	0.87	0.33
CIN	3-4-1	0.454	15.91	16.49	6.71	2.41	0.90	0.33
TB	4-5	0.452	6.22	9.08	3.91	1.39	0.50	0.18
HOU	6-3	0.436	67.39	69.43	31.52	10.94	3.79	1.31
LA	4-5	0.411	1.32	3.49	1.52	0.49	0.16	0.05
JAC	2-7	0.375	0.19	0.20	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00
NYJ	3-7	0.364	0.03	0.09	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
SF	1-8	0.344	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CHI	2-7	0.342	0.33	0.36	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-10	0.290	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas