Superbowl LI Projection, Week 10, Thursday

New England over Dallas

A game featuring two teams that are a combined 4-13 is usually a stinker, but at least there's a semi-interesting statistical outlier to discuss. Cleveland is now 0-10, and exceedingly unlikely to make the playoffs, but not officially eliminated. I ran 100 million simulations, and they never made it in. I then did a test run where they finish 6-10, and they made it a few times, so I knew I needed a larger sample. I ran 1 billion simulations (and promptly failed to save the results, oops), and they made it to the playoffs a few times. However, in none of those did they win the Superbowl. Obviously, if a team makes the playoffs, they have some nonzero shot of winning 4 playoff games to be champs, but for Cleveland we can say those odds are somewhere in the neighborhood of "worse than 1 in a billion".

I'm not sure if they have any chance at the wildcard, because my simulations unfortunately report percentages to 6 decimal places instead of raw numbers, and I report division and overall playoff odds (division + wildcard) instead of separating them out. Perhaps I should keep those separate in the larger report I keep for myself in the future. Anyway, the other teams in the divison have 5, 4, and 3.5 wins, so 6-10 isn't elimination just yet.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	7-1	0.658	97.59	99.08	97.08	60.43	36.94	21.12
DAL	7-1	0.651	86.13	97.57	90.71	55.04	32.78	18.38
PHI	4-4	0.615	3.19	35.57	21.08	10.77	5.83	3.05
DEN	6-3	0.602	22.06	70.10	50.39	26.62	13.66	7.01
ARI	3-4-1	0.588	23.47	36.35	22.35	11.25	5.61	2.78
MIN	5-3	0.575	55.33	69.19	46.98	23.33	11.24	5.42
KC	6-2	0.574	39.85	79.36	59.91	30.95	14.58	7.04
SEA	5-2-1	0.569	74.55	82.50	59.29	29.70	14.03	6.70
ATL	6-3	0.568	76.41	83.82	59.91	29.71	13.95	6.62
BUF	4-5	0.564	0.62	19.99	11.41	5.09	2.47	1.17
BAL	5-4	0.554	51.29	55.37	30.46	14.08	6.52	3.03
OAK	7-2	0.539	37.39	82.62	60.76	28.50	12.38	5.56
SD	4-5	0.534	0.69	14.13	7.73	3.22	1.46	0.64
PIT	4-4	0.527	35.26	41.91	21.82	9.54	4.15	1.81
GB	4-4	0.521	20.53	32.69	17.36	7.46	3.20	1.37
NO	4-4	0.506	18.75	31.72	17.02	7.09	2.94	1.21
DET	5-4	0.498	23.31	39.64	21.37	8.73	3.54	1.44
CAR	3-5	0.496	3.03	6.87	3.23	1.28	0.53	0.21
WAS	4-3-1	0.494	2.12	26.56	12.60	4.90	2.03	0.82
NYG	5-3	0.493	8.55	48.99	24.77	9.66	3.97	1.60
TEN	4-5	0.483	16.86	20.20	9.18	3.52	1.38	0.55
MIA	4-4	0.481	1.72	14.98	7.77	2.93	1.18	0.47
IND	4-5	0.471	18.38	20.91	9.06	3.35	1.27	0.49
CIN	3-4-1	0.454	13.46	14.76	6.14	2.21	0.82	0.30
HOU	5-3	0.428	62.55	63.91	27.37	9.29	3.10	1.07
LA	3-5	0.410	1.95	3.38	1.37	0.44	0.15	0.05
TB	3-5	0.409	1.81	3.71	1.44	0.46	0.15	0.05
CHI	2-6	0.391	0.83	1.40	0.50	0.15	0.05	0.01
JAC	2-6	0.382	2.21	2.25	0.73	0.21	0.06	0.02
NYJ	3-6	0.379	0.08	0.43	0.17	0.05	0.02	0.00
SF	1-7	0.355	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
CLE	0-10	0.290	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas