2016-11-11

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 10, Thursday

New England over Dallas

A game featuring two teams that are a combined 4-13 is usually a stinker, but at least there's a semi-interesting statistical outlier to discuss. Cleveland is now 0-10, and exceedingly unlikely to make the playoffs, but not officially eliminated. I ran 100 million simulations, and they never made it in. I then did a test run where they finish 6-10, and they made it a few times, so I knew I needed a larger sample. I ran 1 billion simulations (and promptly failed to save the results, oops), and they made it to the playoffs a few times. However, in none of those did they win the Superbowl. Obviously, if a team makes the playoffs, they have some nonzero shot of winning 4 playoff games to be champs, but for Cleveland we can say those odds are somewhere in the neighborhood of "worse than 1 in a billion".

I'm not sure if they have any chance at the wildcard, because my simulations unfortunately report percentages to 6 decimal places instead of raw numbers, and I report division and overall playoff odds (division + wildcard) instead of separating them out. Perhaps I should keep those separate in the larger report I keep for myself in the future. Anyway, the other teams in the divison have 5, 4, and 3.5 wins, so 6-10 isn't elimination just yet.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE7-10.65897.5999.0897.0860.4336.9421.12
DAL7-10.65186.1397.5790.7155.0432.7818.38
PHI4-40.6153.1935.5721.0810.775.833.05
DEN6-30.60222.0670.1050.3926.6213.667.01
ARI3-4-10.58823.4736.3522.3511.255.612.78
MIN5-30.57555.3369.1946.9823.3311.245.42
KC6-20.57439.8579.3659.9130.9514.587.04
SEA5-2-10.56974.5582.5059.2929.7014.036.70
ATL6-30.56876.4183.8259.9129.7113.956.62
BUF4-50.5640.6219.9911.415.092.471.17
BAL5-40.55451.2955.3730.4614.086.523.03
OAK7-20.53937.3982.6260.7628.5012.385.56
SD4-50.5340.6914.137.733.221.460.64
PIT4-40.52735.2641.9121.829.544.151.81
GB4-40.52120.5332.6917.367.463.201.37
NO4-40.50618.7531.7217.027.092.941.21
DET5-40.49823.3139.6421.378.733.541.44
CAR3-50.4963.036.873.231.280.530.21
WAS4-3-10.4942.1226.5612.604.902.030.82
NYG5-30.4938.5548.9924.779.663.971.60
TEN4-50.48316.8620.209.183.521.380.55
MIA4-40.4811.7214.987.772.931.180.47
IND4-50.47118.3820.919.063.351.270.49
CIN3-4-10.45413.4614.766.142.210.820.30
HOU5-30.42862.5563.9127.379.293.101.07
LA3-50.4101.953.381.370.440.150.05
TB3-50.4091.813.711.440.460.150.05
CHI2-60.3910.831.400.500.150.050.01
JAC2-60.3822.212.250.730.210.060.02
NYJ3-60.3790.080.430.170.050.020.00
SF1-70.3550.030.040.010.000.000.00
CLE0-100.290------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas

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