Superbowl LI Projection, Week 6, Thursday

Minnesota over Pittsburgh

Finally, we see something semi-interesting happen as a result of a Thursday/Monday game. Last night Denver, one of the top AFC teams, lost a game they were favored to win against San Diego. If you look my my previous post, Minnesota and Philadelphia's odds of making the Superbowl stayed nearly the same. Pittsburgh (and New England, too) gained approximately two thirds of a percent, and other AFC teams also went up a little. That's because Denver lost almost 5 percentage points, and the sum of all AFC teams has to be 100% to make the Superbowl. The teams at the top stand to gain the most, especially when it's a top team that lost. Still, we're only talking about 1 in 5 odds, so Pittsburgh is not yet a sure thing to make the Superbowl.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	5-0	0.616	82.02	94.38	83.10	47.91	26.85	15.18
PHI	3-1	0.605	44.64	69.18	51.30	28.26	15.23	8.44
NE	4-1	0.589	63.23	84.23	67.03	37.48	20.64	10.66
PIT	4-1	0.584	71.45	86.18	70.12	39.03	21.16	10.83
DAL	4-1	0.575	43.04	72.82	52.13	26.85	13.55	7.10
DEN	4-2	0.569	40.95	68.37	50.11	26.61	13.85	6.88
BUF	3-2	0.565	34.18	61.28	41.94	21.84	11.38	5.60
SEA	3-1	0.564	55.74	65.88	44.61	22.18	10.89	5.59
ATL	4-1	0.550	79.54	83.19	56.37	27.24	12.93	6.45
ARI	2-3	0.548	21.97	35.23	20.80	9.85	4.69	2.33
SD	2-4	0.530	6.12	19.65	11.20	5.34	2.57	1.18
GB	3-1	0.530	14.62	54.18	31.51	14.29	6.60	3.16
BAL	3-2	0.515	23.52	47.88	29.50	13.78	6.43	2.85
OAK	4-1	0.508	40.84	67.86	47.20	21.83	9.89	4.31
DET	2-3	0.489	2.81	15.95	7.85	3.23	1.36	0.60
WAS	3-2	0.486	8.98	26.93	14.27	5.93	2.47	1.07
IND	2-3	0.482	23.40	28.13	14.41	6.14	2.62	1.08
KC	2-2	0.481	12.09	26.37	14.71	6.34	2.72	1.12
CAR	1-4	0.478	4.25	7.59	3.49	1.39	0.57	0.24
TEN	2-3	0.478	23.24	28.37	14.31	6.05	2.57	1.05
NO	1-3	0.476	8.44	13.75	6.56	2.61	1.06	0.45
CIN	2-3	0.459	4.79	14.11	7.03	2.87	1.19	0.46
NYG	2-3	0.456	3.34	10.40	4.84	1.86	0.72	0.29
JAC	1-3	0.451	14.56	16.75	7.72	3.05	1.21	0.46
SF	1-4	0.448	2.80	4.44	1.89	0.70	0.27	0.11
HOU	3-2	0.447	38.80	43.63	21.61	8.48	3.32	1.25
LA	3-2	0.443	19.48	31.52	15.31	5.67	2.11	0.83
MIA	1-4	0.434	1.11	3.22	1.45	0.56	0.22	0.08
NYJ	1-4	0.418	1.47	3.33	1.43	0.53	0.20	0.07
CHI	1-4	0.417	0.55	2.88	1.15	0.40	0.14	0.05
TB	2-3	0.414	7.78	11.68	4.81	1.65	0.57	0.21
CLE	0-5	0.397	0.24	0.63	0.25	0.09	0.03	0.01

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh