2021-09-21

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 2, Final

Denver over Carolina

Green Bay redeemed themselves a bit with a Monday night win over Detroit, but at 1-1 they had no significant effect on the NFC, and Denver over Carolina remains the Super Bowl projection.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
DEN2-00.54539.572.848.726.214.07.3
CAR2-00.54843.070.345.024.012.76.8
BUF1-10.54944.762.438.320.811.25.9
LV2-00.52533.769.544.522.911.75.9
LAR2-00.53630.566.441.921.711.25.8
ARI2-00.53529.565.240.921.110.85.6
TB2-00.53136.166.040.520.710.65.5
SF2-00.52327.364.939.920.110.15.1
NE1-10.54136.057.334.618.49.85.1
PHI1-10.54441.454.331.416.58.64.6
NO1-10.53418.247.527.514.17.33.8
HOU1-10.51043.353.429.414.67.23.5
CLE1-10.50926.345.925.912.96.43.1
CIN1-10.50025.544.624.812.15.82.8
SEA1-10.51512.640.522.711.25.52.8
KC1-10.50413.840.922.911.25.52.6
PIT1-10.49624.043.423.711.45.52.6
BAL1-10.49324.243.423.511.35.42.5
LAC1-10.50213.039.522.010.85.32.5
DAL1-10.50225.337.119.39.34.42.2
WAS1-10.49424.237.419.39.24.32.1
TEN1-10.46928.239.319.89.04.01.8
GB1-10.47032.839.218.88.43.71.7
CHI1-10.46830.537.117.77.83.51.6
MIN0-20.49422.728.814.26.73.11.5
IND0-20.47416.425.312.55.72.61.2
MIA1-10.44513.128.613.65.92.51.1
DET0-20.46714.018.78.63.81.70.8
JAC0-20.45912.118.88.83.91.70.8
NYG0-20.4759.016.57.93.61.60.7
NYJ0-20.4516.215.07.03.11.30.6
ATL0-20.4472.79.84.41.90.80.3

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina

2021-09-20

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Denver over Carolina

With 2-0 records, Denver and Carolina have taken over the AFC and NFC leads, respectively. Philadelphia and Houston both lost to fall to 1-1 and back into the middle of the pack. We had our first shutout of the year, with Miami failing to score. Combined with their 1 point win last week, the 35 point loss puts them at a -34 point differential and the weakest 1-1 team, down below several 0-2 teams. But, it's still early, so don't place all your bets on Denver to cover your Philadelphia losses just yet.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
DEN2-00.54539.272.648.526.114.07.3
CAR2-00.54843.070.345.023.912.76.7
BUF1-10.54944.762.538.420.811.25.9
LV2-00.52533.969.744.623.011.85.9
LAR2-00.53630.466.041.521.511.15.8
ARI2-00.53529.464.840.420.810.75.6
TB2-00.53136.166.040.520.710.65.4
SF2-00.52327.665.039.920.010.05.1
NE1-10.54136.057.434.718.59.85.1
PHI1-10.54441.254.031.116.48.54.5
NO1-10.53418.247.427.414.17.23.7
HOU1-10.51043.353.529.514.67.23.5
CLE1-10.50926.345.725.812.86.33.1
CIN1-10.50025.544.424.712.05.82.8
SEA1-10.51512.640.022.411.05.42.7
KC1-10.50413.841.023.011.35.52.7
PIT1-10.49624.043.223.511.35.42.6
LAC1-10.50213.139.622.110.85.32.5
BAL1-10.49324.243.223.311.25.32.5
DAL1-10.50225.437.219.39.34.42.2
WAS1-10.49424.337.419.39.14.32.1
TEN1-10.46928.239.419.89.04.11.8
DET0-10.49127.734.417.18.03.71.8
CHI1-10.46828.635.516.97.53.31.5
MIN0-20.49421.227.413.56.33.01.4
GB0-10.47122.528.413.56.02.71.2
IND0-20.47416.425.412.65.72.61.2
MIA1-10.44513.128.713.75.92.51.1
JAC0-20.45912.118.88.83.91.70.8
NYG0-20.4759.116.67.93.61.60.7
NYJ0-20.4516.215.07.03.11.30.6
ATL0-20.4472.69.74.41.90.80.3

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston

2021-09-17

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 2, Thursday

Philadelphia over Houston

For the second year in a row (see 2020 here) my least favorite projection day doesn't include a 2-0 team that artificially appears in much better position than they are. Both Washington and New York were 0-1 going into last night, so this was inevitable. We do have New York artificially low as the only 0-2 team, but no one's really paying attention to the bottom of the table, right?

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI1-00.52946.663.038.520.110.55.5
NO1-00.52935.061.338.019.910.35.4
HOU1-00.52149.964.338.920.210.45.3
LAR1-00.52626.958.135.718.59.55.0
DEN1-00.52428.357.035.118.39.64.9
ARI1-00.52726.756.634.618.09.34.9
PIT1-00.51535.958.435.218.19.24.7
SEA1-00.52024.454.032.516.68.54.4
MIA1-00.50342.658.634.017.08.54.2
LV1-00.50924.253.531.816.18.14.0
CAR1-00.51328.653.231.315.87.94.0
CIN1-00.50533.053.831.515.87.93.9
LAC1-00.51023.751.430.515.47.83.9
KC1-00.50623.852.931.215.77.93.9
SF1-00.50922.051.930.515.27.63.8
TB1-00.50326.752.430.314.97.33.7
WAS1-10.49425.742.422.911.15.42.6
MIN0-10.49528.337.820.09.64.62.3
NE0-10.49719.134.418.69.14.52.2
DET0-10.49126.935.318.28.74.22.0
DAL0-10.49718.831.816.88.24.02.0
CLE0-10.49415.731.016.78.24.01.9
NYJ0-10.48719.032.917.58.44.11.9
BAL0-10.49115.430.916.58.03.91.9
BUF0-10.48519.331.616.57.93.81.8
IND0-10.48018.231.416.37.83.71.7
JAC0-10.47915.529.015.07.13.41.6
CHI0-10.47422.930.715.27.03.21.5
TEN0-10.47316.328.814.76.93.21.5
GB0-10.47121.929.214.36.53.01.4
ATL0-10.4719.723.912.05.52.51.2
NYG0-20.4748.918.49.14.22.00.9

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston

2021-09-14

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 1

Philadelphia over Houston

As is tradition, rather than re-explaining, allow me to copy and past from 2014's introductory post.
Each year I project the Super Bowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.
For the second year in a row, I needed to modify my software to accommodate some changes in the NFL. Last year they added 2 playoff teams, for a total of 14. This year each team plays 17 games. I had a lot of hard-coded 16s, as well as some other hard-coded numbers from 14 up to 23 to index into certain data structures. Avoid hard-coded constants for things that might ever change, kids. Hopefully that fix will bring me closer to my eventual goal of being able to project baseball, basketball, and hockey if I can figure out how to project overtime and shootouts.

The first week of the season is not terrible indicative of the outcome of the season, because of so much uncertainty remaining. For example, last year Tampa sat at 1.7% after a week 1 loss. But, by virtue of a 32-6 win, and a weaker division that New Orleans, who won 38-3, Philadelphia takes the NFC lead. Philadelphia is the only 1-0 team in the NFC East, while there are 3 1-0 teams in the NFC South. In the AFC, Houston is the only 1-0 team in the AFC South, which gives them a huge boost in playoff odds currently. Miami is in the same position, but only won by a point, putting their strength very near .500

All in all, don't place any wagers based on week 1. In fact, don't ever do that based on this amateur stuff.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI1-00.52947.363.338.720.210.55.5
NO1-00.52935.061.438.119.910.45.5
HOU1-00.52049.964.238.920.210.45.3
LAR1-00.52626.958.235.818.59.65.0
DEN1-00.52428.457.135.118.39.64.9
ARI1-00.52726.756.634.718.09.44.9
PIT1-00.51535.958.335.218.09.24.7
SEA1-00.52024.454.132.616.78.54.4
MIA1-00.50342.658.634.017.08.44.2
LV1-00.50924.253.531.816.18.14.1
CAR1-00.51328.653.331.415.88.04.0
CIN1-00.50533.053.831.515.87.93.9
LAC1-00.51023.651.430.415.47.83.9
KC1-00.50623.852.931.215.77.93.9
SF1-00.50922.052.030.615.37.63.9
TB1-00.50326.752.530.415.07.43.7
MIN0-10.49528.337.820.09.74.72.3
NE0-10.49719.134.418.69.14.52.2
DET0-10.49126.935.318.38.74.22.0
DAL0-10.49719.132.016.98.34.02.0
CLE0-10.49415.731.016.78.24.01.9
NYJ0-10.48719.032.917.58.44.11.9
WAS0-10.49018.332.116.98.13.91.9
BAL0-10.49115.430.916.58.03.91.9
BUF0-10.48519.331.716.57.93.81.8
IND0-10.48018.231.416.37.83.71.7
JAC0-10.48015.529.115.07.13.41.6
CHI0-10.47422.930.815.37.13.31.5
TEN0-10.47316.328.814.76.93.21.5
NYG0-10.47615.327.614.16.63.11.4
GB0-10.47121.929.214.36.63.01.4
ATL0-10.4719.724.012.15.62.61.2

2021-04-01

Opening Day!

 

1984 Topps - Glossy All-Stars #12 Whitey Herzog

I've always enjoyed one quirk of these All-Star cards, particularly for the managers. This card is from the 1984 set, features the 1983 All-Star game, which the Manager earned by being in the 1982 World series. But it's April, forget the All-Star break, forget the World Series, it's Opening Day.

So how does Whitey Herzog handle Opening Day? Let's see some stats

YearTeamResult
1990STLWin
1989STLLoss
1988STLLoss
1987STLWin
1986STLWin
1985STLLoss
1984STLWin
1983STLLoss
1982STLWin
1981STLLoss
1979KCRWin
1978KCRLoss
1977KCRWin
1976KCRLoss
1973TEXLoss
TotalSTL5-5
TotalKCR2-2
TotalTEX0-1
Overall 7-8

7-8? That's no fun. So let's get creative. Whitey took over midseason as manager 3 times. 1980 for the Cardinals, and 1975 for the Royals, as you might expect from the years listed above. He also managed 4 games for the Angels between managers in 1974. So let's add in Whitey's personal opening days.

DateTeamResult
1980-06-09STLWin
1975-07-25KCRWin
1974-06-26TEXLoss
Overall 2-1

Note: I'm not totally sure June 26 was his first game of 1974, but it seems to line up with the records of the previous manager, and starts a 2 for 4 stretch, which would be his final record that year.

We're up to 9-9, that's at least a .500 record. Can we get even more creative? How about 1981, which had a strike mid-year and the season was divided into halves. Everyone got a fresh start, a 0-0 record, and new shot at the playoffs, regardless of your previous record. Sounds like an opening day scenario to me. How'd he do in 1981's second opening day, in August?

DateTeamResult
1981-08-10STLWin

There we go! A 10-9 "Opening Day" record, achieved completely legitimately with no funny business.

Opening Days 
STL5-5
KCR2-1
TEX0-1
Opening Days7-8
First Days 
STL1-0
KCR1-0
CAL0-1
First Days2-1
2nd Half 
STL1-0
Total10-9


Just for fun, here's a video from one of my favorite Whitey Herzog stories. He was interested in becoming commissioner but was passed over for Bart Giamatti, previously president of Yale. Marv joked that if he didn't get it, there'd be an opening at Yale, and Whitey did not appreciate the joke. Seems a bit petty, but it's on the milder side of what we've seen from athletes and managers getting annoyed by reporters.


2021-01-25

Super Bowl LV Projection, Championship Sunday

Tampa Bay over Kansas City

Disclaimer: I didn't originally post this on time for some reason, but I've backdated the posting date just so it make sense

Tampa Bay beat Green Bay by just 5 points, but they were really in complete control by halftime. Kansas City also dominated Buffalo but didn't allow them to get nearly as close during garbage time.

Who am I rooting for to win the Super Bowl?

Tampa Bay (54.5%) at Kansas City
Just like Superbowl LIV, I've got to root for my adopted home team. 

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
TB11-50.731-++++++++54.5
KC14-20.694++++++++++45.5
BAL11-50.791-++++---
NO12-40.750++++++---
GB13-30.728++++++++--
BUF13-30.708++++++++--
PIT12-40.707++++----
LAR10-60.668-++++---
IND11-50.662-++----
SEA12-40.658++++----
MIA10-60.633------
TEN11-50.585++++----
ARI8-80.584------
WAS7-90.514++++----
CHI8-80.504-++----
CLE11-50.480-++++---
SF6-100.472------
ATL4-120.466------
NE7-90.439------
LV8-80.427------
MIN7-90.424------
LAC7-90.421------
CAR5-110.395------
DAL6-100.365------
HOU4-120.359------
PHI4-11-10.335------
NYG6-100.322------
CIN4-11-10.279------
DET5-110.273------
DEN5-110.271------
JAC1-150.189------
NYJ2-140.126------

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye and homefield in conference playoffs: Kansas City (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Friday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 17] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Wildcard Sunday] Baltimore over New Orleans
[Divisional Saturday] Buffalo over Green Bay
[Divisional Sunday] Tampa Bay over Buffalo

2021-01-17

Super Bowl LV Projection, Divisional Sunday

Tampa Bay over Buffalo

With 3 games to go, the remaining 4 teams are pretty evenly matched. I should try to come up with a good measure for how evenly, that is, how close to 25-25-25-25 odds we are. Maybe during the off week.

Who am I rooting for to make it to the Superbowl?

Tampa Bay (50.4%) at Green Bay
Both games are close, but this one rounds to 50-50. For some reason I feel like I'd rather see Tampa Bay win, maybe because Green Bay has had so much success in my lifetime, or at least it feels that way.

Buffalo (51.7%) at Kansas City
I'm rooting for the underdog in this one, the team physically closest to being my hometown team, Kansas City.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
TB11-50.731-++++++50.3627.01
GB13-30.728++++++++49.6426.44
BUF13-30.708++++++++51.7024.49
KC14-20.694++++++++48.3022.06
BAL11-50.791-++++---
NO12-40.750++++++---
PIT12-40.707++++----
LAR10-60.668-++++---
IND11-50.662-++----
SEA12-40.657++++----
MIA10-60.633------
TEN11-50.585++++----
ARI8-80.584------
WAS7-90.514++++----
CHI8-80.504-++----
CLE11-50.480-++++---
SF6-100.472------
ATL4-120.466------
NE7-90.439------
LV8-80.427------
MIN7-90.424------
LAC7-90.421------
CAR5-110.395------
DAL6-100.365------
HOU4-120.359------
PHI4-11-10.335------
NYG6-100.322------
CIN4-11-10.279------
DET5-110.273------
DEN5-110.271------
JAC1-150.189------
NYJ2-140.126------

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye and homefield in conference playoffs: Kansas City (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Friday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 17] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Wildcard Sunday] Baltimore over New Orleans
[Divisional Saturday] Buffalo over Green Bay

Super Bowl LV Projection, Divisional Saturday

Buffalo over Green Bay

I'm pretty sure I mention this caveat every year, at least every year if one or more of the top seeds don't play until Divisional Sunday, but the conference favorites right now are obviously the 2 teams that have already clinched a spot in the game. Green Bay will definitely not be favored against either opponent they ultimately face, but at 48% they have a higher likelihood than either New Orleans or Tampa Bay individually. Buffalo will be favored either way, so at least that part won't change after Sunday's games.

Who's up on Sunday?!

Cleveland at Kansas City (71%)
I'm rooting for KC as sort of my adopted home team, but the shine seems to be off the apple for them a little bit. Hopefully they can keep it together for 3 more games.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (52%)
This feels like a game Tampa Bay should win, but we'll see if the eye test or my model picks the right team. I'll root for Tampa Bay, mostly because New Orleans is just a team I don't usually root for.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BUF13-30.708++++++++57.7126.95
GB13-30.728++++++++48.3826.50
NO12-40.750++++++52.4127.6615.89
KC14-20.694++++++71.1234.3515.46
TB11-50.731-++++47.5923.9713.21
CLE11-50.480-++++28.887.951.98
BAL11-50.791-++++---
PIT12-40.707++++----
LAR10-60.668-++++---
IND11-50.662-++----
SEA12-40.658++++----
MIA10-60.633------
TEN11-50.585++++----
ARI8-80.584------
WAS7-90.514++++----
CHI8-80.504-++----
SF6-100.472------
ATL4-120.466------
NE7-90.439------
LV8-80.427------
MIN7-90.424------
LAC7-90.421------
CAR5-110.395------
DAL6-100.365------
HOU4-120.359------
PHI4-11-10.335------
NYG6-100.322------
CIN4-11-10.279------
DET5-110.273------
DEN5-110.271------
JAC1-150.189------
NYJ2-140.126------

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye and homefield in conference playoffs: Kansas City (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Friday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 17] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Wildcard Sunday] Baltimore over New Orleans

2021-01-11

Super Bowl LV Projection, Wildcard Sunday

Baltimore over New Orleans

I went 2 for 3 on Sunday, only missing Cleveland vs Pittsburgh. The bad news is, the reseeding really messes with my picks in a few contests. I picked Buffalo and Baltimore to be in the AFC championship, and now they'll play earlier.

Here are my picks and rooting for Saturday.

Los Angeles at Green Bay (57%)
Part of me still wants to root for the Rams even though they left St. Louis, and part of me wants to root for them to lose. I'll call this one a push, and just enjoy the game

Baltimore (61%) at Buffalo
I don't feel a strong rooting interest in this one either. Maybe I'll root for Baltimore, simply to troll my good friend who is a Steelers fan.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL11-50.791-++++60.9441.2724.30
NO12-40.750++++++52.4129.2415.36
GB13-30.728++++++57.0927.6213.76
KC14-20.694++++++71.1329.6513.71
TB11-50.731-++++47.5925.4112.75
BUF13-30.709++++++39.0622.5410.80
LAR10-60.668-++++42.9117.737.62
CLE11-50.480-++++28.876.541.70
PIT12-40.707++++----
IND11-50.662-++----
SEA12-40.658++++----
MIA10-60.633------
TEN11-50.585++++----
ARI8-80.584------
WAS7-90.514++++----
CHI8-80.504-++----
SF6-100.472------
ATL4-120.466------
NE7-90.439------
LV8-80.427------
MIN7-90.424------
LAC7-90.421------
CAR5-110.395------
DAL6-100.365------
HOU4-120.359------
PHI4-11-10.335------
NYG6-100.322------
CIN4-11-10.279------
DET5-110.273------
DEN5-110.271------
JAC1-150.189------
NYJ2-140.126------

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye and homefield in conference playoffs: Kansas City (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Friday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 17] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over Green Bay

2021-01-10

Super Bowl LV Projection, Wildcard Saturday

Baltimore over Green Bay

I refused to call this Super Wildcard Weekend. If this is the new normal, it's just Wildcard Weekend. If 14 playoff teams was a one-year thing, then I'd be on board. Anyway, the favorites remained the same, as Green Bay didn't play due to a bye, and Baltimore plays Sunday.

All 3 of my picks were correct yesterday, even the very narrow LA over Seattle

Who am I rooting for in the second half of normal Wildcard Weekend?

Baltimore (73%) at Tennessee
Just because I enjoy things that upset the system, let's root for lower seeded Baltimore to beat Tennessee

Chicago at New Orleans (75%)
I don't think they have a chance, but let's go Bears!

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (72%)
These two teams are a mess for different reasons. I'll root for Pittsburgh primarily as a proxy for one of my closest football-fan friends.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL11-50.791-++72.9045.2828.4516.94
GB13-30.728++++++61.0030.3215.38
TB11-50.731-++++50.0827.2013.89
BUF13-30.709++++++48.9024.3811.86
NO12-40.750++++74.6639.1321.8311.66
KC14-20.694++++++51.5124.2211.37
PIT12-40.707++++72.3836.0816.968.22
LAR10-60.668-++++42.8218.578.12
TEN11-50.585++++27.1010.263.991.42
CHI8-80.504-++25.346.972.080.59
CLE11-50.480-++27.627.972.010.53
IND11-50.662-++----
SEA12-40.658++++----
MIA10-60.633------
ARI8-80.584------
WAS7-90.514++++----
SF6-100.472------
ATL4-120.466------
NE7-90.439------
LV8-80.427------
MIN7-90.424------
LAC7-90.421------
CAR5-110.395------
DAL6-100.365------
HOU4-120.359------
PHI4-11-10.335------
NYG6-100.322------
CIN4-11-10.279------
DET5-110.273------
DEN5-110.271------
JAC1-150.189------
NYJ2-140.126------

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye and homefield in conference playoffs: Kansas City (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Friday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 17] Baltimore over Green Bay

2021-01-04

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 17

Baltimore over Green Bay

note: I completely forgot to post this, but I've backdated it to the normal time it would have posted just to avoid confusing myself later

With the regular season over, out of nowhere, Baltimore takes over the AFC lead. They had been lurking for awhile as the strongest team, but thanks to a slightly unlucky record comparatively, and a very strong division rival and conference overall, they hadn't even officially locked up a playoff spot until the last day. I've got them at 73% likely to win at Tennessee, who is also 11-5. And they'll be favored against anyone else they play, too, though not by as much unless it's Cleveland.

As is tradition, let's see who I'm rooting for.

Indianapolis at Buffalo (55%)
I used to favor Indianapolis a lot, which might have just been residual fandom from Manning and Faulk. This year I'd like Buffalo to win a playoff game for the first time in forever.

Los Angeles Rams (51%) at Seattle
I'm picking LA, just barely, but rooting for Seattle.

Tampa Bay (72%) at Washington
I always kind of liked Tampa in the days of Warren Sapp, so sure, let's root for them here.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL11-50.791-++72.9046.6829.6117.82
GB13-30.728++++++60.5331.5916.14
NO12-40.750++++74.6644.5424.5213.19
KC14-20.694++++++52.4624.4811.68
TB11-50.731-++72.0136.9019.8410.21
PIT12-40.707++++72.3834.6717.218.47
BUF13-30.709++++55.3327.0613.496.66
LAR10-60.668-++51.2022.7610.174.49
IND11-50.662-++44.6720.718.863.91
SEA12-40.658++++48.8020.159.033.88
TEN11-50.585++++27.1010.934.301.56
WAS7-90.514++++27.998.152.580.76
CHI8-80.504-++25.346.972.280.66
CLE11-50.480-++27.627.492.040.56
MIA10-60.633------
ARI8-80.584------
SF6-100.472------
ATL4-120.466------
NE7-90.439------
LV8-80.427------
MIN7-90.424------
LAC7-90.421------
CAR5-110.395------
DAL6-100.365------
HOU4-120.359------
PHI4-11-10.335------
NYG6-100.322------
CIN4-11-10.279------
DET5-110.273------
DEN5-110.271------
JAC1-150.189------
NYJ2-140.126------

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City and Pittsburgh (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.99999% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 12, Final)
First to clinch Playoffs: New Orleans and Kansas City (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye and homefield in conference playoffs: Kansas City (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: New York Jets (Week 9, Final)

First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Jets (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington
[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 4, Sunday] Indianapolis over Seattle
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 5, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Monday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 5, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Seattle
[Week 6, Monday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 7, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Sunday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 8, Final] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Thursday] Kansas City over Tampa Bay
[Week 9, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 9, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Thursday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 10, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 10, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 11, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 12, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Sunday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Monday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 13, Final] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Thursday] Pittsburgh over New Orleans
[Week 14, Sunday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 14, Final] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Thursday] Kansas City over New Orleans
[Week 15, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 15, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Friday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Saturday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Sunday] Kansas City over Green Bay
[Week 16, Final] Kansas City over Green Bay