2014-11-30

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 14

I'm beginning to think no one's going to take down Florida State.

Mississippi State lost and fell out of the top 4, and Ohio State and Oregon each moved up a spot to #3 and #4. Marshall would have been 5 (I checked), but they lost, and fell down to #14, and that's all the playoff committee will need to exclude them. UCLA and Georgia also lost, and Georgia Tech's win over highly-ranked Georgia jumped them over Missouri, up to #5 with Missouri #6 now.

The top 8 teams in my rankings all have conference championship games to play next week, with #1 facing #5 for the ACC, #2 facing #6 for the SEC, and #3 facing #7 for the Big 10, so there are still lots of possibilities for my end of season top 4.

1Florida State12-0
2Alabama11-1
3Ohio State11-1
4Oregon11-1
5Georgia Tech10-2
6Missouri10-2
7Wisconsin10-2
8Boise State10-2
9Mississippi State10-2
10Michigan State10-2
11TCU10-1
12Arizona10-2
13Ole Miss9-3
14Marshall11-1
15UCLA9-3
16Baylor10-1
17Georgia9-3
18Clemson9-3
19Colorado State10-2
20Nebraska9-3
21Kansas State9-2
22Northern Illinois10-2
23Arizona State9-3
24Auburn8-4
25Louisville9-3
26LSU8-4
27Utah State9-4
28Utah8-4
29USC8-4
30Minnesota8-4
31Air Force9-3
32Duke9-3
33Oklahoma8-3
34Memphis9-3
35Louisiana Tech8-4
36Washington8-5
37Georgia Southern9-3
38Toledo8-4
39BYU8-4
40Texas A&M7-5
41Louisiana-Lafayette8-4
42Cincinnati8-3
43Maryland7-5
44North Carolina State7-5
45UCF8-3
46Notre Dame7-5
47Stanford7-5
48East Carolina8-3
49Boston College7-5
50Rutgers7-5
51Iowa7-5
52West Virginia7-5
53Western Michigan8-4
54Tennessee6-6
55Western Kentucky7-5
56North Carolina6-6
57Arkansas6-6
58Nevada7-5
59Florida6-5
60Miami (FL)6-6
61Illinois6-6
62Virginia Tech6-6
63Rice7-5
64South Carolina6-6
65UTEP7-5
66Arkansas State7-5
67Central Michigan7-5
68Houston7-4
69Navy6-5
70Bowling Green7-5
71Texas6-6
72Pittsburgh6-6
73Appalachian State7-5
74Penn State6-6
75Virginia5-7
76Texas State7-5
77Middle Tennessee6-6
78San Diego State6-5
79Fresno State6-6
80Old Dominion6-6
81Northwestern5-7
82UAB6-6
83Kentucky5-7
84Michigan5-7
85California5-7
86South Alabama6-6
87Ohio6-6
88Oklahoma State5-6
89Oregon State5-7
90Ball State5-7
91Temple5-6
92Indiana4-8
93Wyoming4-8
94Texas Tech4-8
95Buffalo5-6
96New Mexico4-8
97South Florida4-8
98Florida International4-8
99Syracuse3-9
100Akron5-7
101Army4-7
102Purdue3-9
103Washington State3-9
104Hawaii4-9
105UTSA4-8
106Tulane3-8
107Vanderbilt3-9
108Louisiana-Monroe4-8
109Southern Miss3-9
110Wake Forest3-9
111Kansas3-9
112San Jose State3-7
113North Texas4-8
114Florida Atlantic3-9
115Iowa State2-9
116Colorado2-10
117Troy3-9
118Connecticut2-9
119Eastern Michigan2-10
120UNLV2-11
121Massachusetts3-9
122Kent State2-9
123Miami (OH)2-10
124Tulsa2-10
125New Mexico State2-10
126Georgia State1-11
127Idaho1-10
128SMU0-11


2014 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State
Week 9 Mississippi State
Week 10 Mississippi State
Week 11 Mississippi State
Week 12 Florida State
Week 13 Florida State

2014-11-28

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 13, Thursday

New England over Green Bay

Detroit's win finally truly eliminated the Giants, according to the online sources I cross-check when I show a team as eliminated. A tie or Chicago win would have kept them alive. Now I have yet another elimination that shouldn't be there: Minnesota as division champs. I still have them as possible wildcards, though. They can go as high as 9-7, but the winner of Green Bay and Detroit would seem to hold the tiebreaker over Minnesota, if they also finish 9-7. Green Bay and Detroit could tie, though, and both finish 8-7-1, and behind the Vikings.

I suppose I should reintroduce ties into my simulations, but even a 1% chance seems very high, given that there has been 1 per year (1 in 256) since 2012, and only 5 since 2002, the 32-team era. But, with only a 1% chance of a tie, it's still rather unlikely the NFC North Champion Minnesota scenario would have come up.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE9-20.68896.49698.43793.71555.49132.66918.547
GB8-30.67162.66189.42771.66541.03123.32612.537
BAL7-40.66533.79460.43238.98620.84711.1926.069
SEA8-40.65728.69778.49056.94031.50417.0378.904
PHI9-30.64686.97892.06671.15738.46720.59710.506
KC7-40.64124.16165.46242.06621.66010.9905.671
IND7-40.62993.97594.22656.82828.63514.0827.080
ARI9-20.60469.68097.03883.92041.83919.7529.197
DEN8-30.59567.23586.86065.47531.34413.8906.493
BUF6-50.5912.70912.4926.3982.8361.3220.614
MIA5-60.5800.7957.3293.5301.5370.7040.319
SD7-40.5648.60529.78515.7166.7072.8871.260
DET8-40.56137.32175.92845.47319.9308.6673.665
DAL8-40.55613.02249.32826.56411.4264.9162.056
CLE7-40.55114.48730.98515.6446.4282.6571.126
PIT7-40.54621.23845.89024.66210.0464.0681.705
HOU5-60.5356.02510.2614.5071.7820.7240.296
CIN7-3-10.52630.48157.84132.47312.6884.8131.923
SF7-50.5121.62216.4417.5902.9371.1500.432
NO4-70.50453.51853.51821.0107.8832.9491.086
ATL4-70.46434.39234.39212.2944.1721.4120.470
MIN4-70.405-0.0140.0040.0010.0000.000
CHI6-60.3920.0181.2050.3510.0970.0270.007
WAS3-80.386-0.0000.000---
NYG3-80.385------
STL4-70.3510.0010.0640.0160.0040.0010.000
CAR3-7-10.34111.96411.9642.9850.7020.1640.038
TB2-90.3260.1250.1250.0300.0070.0020.000
TEN2-90.307------
OAK1-100.288------
NYJ2-90.271------
JAC1-100.245------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]

2014-11-27

2013 Allen and Ginter Set, Part II

As I mentioned in my last post of Allen and Ginter cards, I bought an almost-complete Allen and Ginter set (minus Puig), along with a separate purchase of the 50 Short Prints. Before I file it away with my "sorted" cards, here are the rest of the Cardinals from the set.


2013 Allen and Ginter
#108 Bob Gibson
#115 Stan Musial
#139 Red Schoendienst
#161 Enos Slaughter
#254 Lou Brock
#341 Ozzie Smith
6 Hall of Fame cards is a pretty good number out of a single set that mostly features current players. These players all have numbers retired by the Cardinals.


2013 Allen and Ginter
#125 Matt Holliday
#172 Jon Jay
#276 Lance Lynn
#283 Jason Motte
#340 Yadier Molina
#342 Adam Wainwright
There were also 6 Cardinals pictured in uniform in the set that are still on the team, though Motte hasn't been re-signed yet. Everyone else will be back, though.


2013 Allen and Ginter
#96 Jayson Heyward
Finally, here I have the newest Cardinal, Jason Heyward. I'll be interested to see how his 2015 goes, since it's his contract year, and what that ultimately means for his next contract, whether its with St. Louis or elsewhere. His acquisition puts 2 2014 Gold Glovers in the Cardinals' 2015 lineup, and may be the tipping point to make me decide to attend the Cardinals' Winter Warmup this year, to get an in-person autograph before he even plays his first game here.


2014-11-25

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 12, Final

New England over Green Bay

The reason I had trouble finding the right combination of games to get the Giants in the playoffs is that it likely involves someone tying in order to keep 1 or 2 teams at 7-8-1 and just behind the Giants best possible record of 8-8 . It's clear that they would have to be a wildcard, since both Dallas and Philadelphia have won 8 games, and they still have a game to play against each other. One of them will have to be at least 8-7-1, which will beat the Giants.

After some simulating and searching, the answer lies in the very next game - Chicago at Detroit. A tie in that game opens up the possibility of the Giants making the playoffs with no further ties. It would appear that a Detroit win would eliminate the Giants, through an extremely complex set of possible tiebreaker pairings (and triplets). A Chicago win keeps them alive, but requires the Detroit at Chicago game in a few weeks to be a tie. Given the unlikely nature of ties, Giants fans had better be rooting for one this week.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE9-20.68896.49898.44893.78355.52932.69619.060
GB8-30.67174.54790.37675.14944.70726.33614.154
BAL7-40.66533.80560.58839.13620.93411.2386.265
KC7-40.64124.24165.61842.17721.72211.0205.858
IND7-40.62993.72193.96656.39228.39313.9657.239
SEA7-40.62218.02661.72441.02621.32710.9515.300
PHI8-30.60857.95175.69553.46026.94713.6476.420
ARI9-20.60474.20996.85785.66944.78021.87210.181
DAL8-30.59842.04974.71151.28425.16312.3755.692
DEN8-30.59567.46887.00065.66731.44613.9326.727
BUF6-50.5912.70712.5726.4472.8571.3320.640
MIA5-60.5800.7947.3773.5551.5480.7090.332
SD7-40.5648.29228.95315.2436.5022.8001.264
CLE7-40.55114.48131.11615.7156.4562.6681.171
SF7-40.5497.76340.67123.46410.3304.5121.855
PIT7-40.54621.23745.92924.68310.0534.0701.768
HOU5-60.5356.27910.4614.5971.8190.7390.313
CIN7-3-10.52630.47757.97132.60612.7424.8322.002
DET7-40.51924.76852.47329.12812.0394.9411.888
NO4-70.50452.85952.85921.7538.4373.2731.205
ATL4-70.46434.80034.80013.0384.6031.6220.539
CHI6-50.4230.6857.3822.7270.8570.2740.081
MIN4-70.4050.0000.0170.0050.0010.0000.000
WAS3-80.386-0.000----
NYG3-80.385------
STL4-70.3510.0010.0940.0250.0060.0020.000
CAR3-7-10.34112.19712.1973.2350.7920.1940.045
TB2-90.3260.1450.1450.0360.0090.0020.000
TEN2-90.307------
OAK1-100.287------
NYJ2-90.271------
JAC1-100.245------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]

2014-11-24

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 12, Sunday

New England over Green Bay

Arizona's loss and Green Bay's high point differential has the Packers on top of the NFC, and the favored teams are finally the strongest teams. Tennessee and Jacksonville are both eliminated from the playoffs. The Jets had few enough playoff appearances in the 1 billion simulations that they never made it to the Superbowl, and Washington never got out of the first round. None of my simulations showed the Giants making the playoffs, and I even tried to create a scenario in which they would, but I couldn't find one. I'm convinced it would require some ties, which I don't have in my simulations, as well as some 3-way or 4-way tiebreakers. But much like the Raiders who were technically alive a few weeks ago, I'm sure their official elimination will come very soon.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE9-20.68898.11199.05494.73356.52033.52419.529
GB8-30.67175.46191.17476.29845.33926.67814.405
BAL6-40.65625.27250.89131.59716.4588.7104.765
KC7-40.64123.25167.28543.19522.35411.4196.066
IND7-40.62993.65493.96656.41228.57514.1427.324
SEA7-40.62218.02661.43240.42920.97210.7505.231
PHI8-30.60857.90375.61852.92626.59113.4396.356
ARI9-20.60474.13296.80285.24244.40821.65210.134
DAL8-30.59842.09774.68450.87024.88612.2215.651
DEN8-30.59568.89489.51568.62533.24714.7867.133
MIA5-60.5800.7527.8063.7881.6420.7570.354
SD7-40.5647.85430.37815.9726.8222.9561.333
CLE7-40.55117.14936.12818.3727.5563.1391.377
SF7-40.5497.84240.58923.14110.1674.4331.834
PIT7-40.54623.05547.64125.62710.4824.2701.854
HOU5-60.5356.34611.3575.0281.9870.8140.344
CIN7-3-10.52634.52460.39034.21413.4575.1302.123
DET7-40.51923.93952.33728.89111.9004.8741.874
NO4-60.51662.16262.16326.37210.5324.2131.612
BUF5-50.5141.1365.5872.4360.9010.3550.143
ATL4-70.46428.45628.45610.6673.7611.3250.443
CHI6-50.4230.6007.2572.6460.8290.2640.079
MIN4-70.4050.0000.0160.0040.0010.0000.000
WAS3-80.386-0.000----
NYG3-80.385------
STL4-70.3510.0010.0890.0230.0060.0020.000
CAR3-7-10.3419.2859.2852.4650.6020.1480.034
TB2-90.3260.0970.0970.0240.0060.0010.000
NYJ2-80.326-0.0000.0000.000--
TEN2-90.307------
OAK1-100.288------
JAC1-100.245------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]

2014-11-23

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

My top 3 all stayed the same this week, but Oregon fell from #4 to #5, and Ohio State rose to #4. Even though it wasn't an impressive win, Marshall won again to go 11-0, and is all the way up to #6 in my rankings. If the polls give them a similar jump, I think we'll be in for a controversial playoff selection, whether they are in or out.

Missouri beat Tennessee in a game that was a little tense, then felt well in-hand, then got tense again when Mizzou missed a PAT which caused their lead to be only 16 points, Tennessee scored a TD and 2 point conversion, and seemed to recover the first onside kick. An offsides by Mizzou forced a re-kick - which seems odd to me, Tennessee should have had the option to get the result of the play - and Missouri recovered and ultimately finished out the victory. With more win they'll win the SEC East, and promptly lose to Alabama.

Apparently I was too eager to get my FBS list for 2014. I saw a mention of "all 128" FBS teams this week, and since I like to note the bottom of my rankings, I knew I had only 127 in my list. After a bit of digging, I saw that I was missing Old Dominion. This hasn't made the rankings wrong to any extreme, since their games still counted. It just meant Old Dominion was filtered out when I listed the top to bottom rankings. So everyone worse than them should have been one lower, but the relative rankings were correct, and anyone above them was exactly correct. I believe their highest rank would have been #40 in week 4, so nothing of true consequence was affected.

So, today, SMU falls to a new low: #128! Hang in there, Mustangs; even the Rams won a Superbowl in 2000 after a terrible late 90s.


1Florida State11-0
2Alabama10-1
3Mississippi State10-1
4Ohio State10-1
5Oregon10-1
6Marshall11-0
7UCLA9-2
8Georgia9-2
9Missouri9-2
10Georgia Tech9-2
11Wisconsin9-2
12TCU9-1
13Michigan State9-2
14Colorado State10-1
15Boise State9-2
16Auburn8-3
17Arizona9-2
18Ole Miss8-3
19Arizona State9-2
20Baylor9-1
21Kansas State8-2
22Clemson8-3
23Utah State9-3
24Nebraska8-3
25Minnesota8-3
26Northern Illinois9-2
27Louisville8-3
28Oklahoma8-3
29LSU7-4
30Texas A&M7-4
31Utah7-4
32Maryland7-4
33Duke8-3
34Notre Dame7-4
35Memphis8-3
36USC7-4
37Air Force8-3
38Washington7-5
39Iowa7-4
40Western Michigan8-3
41Toledo7-4
42Georgia Southern8-3
43Arkansas6-5
44Louisiana Tech7-4
45North Carolina6-5
46Louisiana-Lafayette7-4
47Miami (FL)6-5
48Cincinnati7-3
49Florida6-4
50BYU7-4
51UCF7-3
52East Carolina7-3
53West Virginia6-5
54Rice7-4
55South Carolina6-5
56North Carolina State6-5
57Boston College6-5
58Tennessee5-6
59Stanford6-5
60Bowling Green7-4
61Central Michigan7-5
62Rutgers6-5
63Texas6-5
64Nevada6-5
65Penn State6-5
66Virginia5-6
67Illinois5-6
68Virginia Tech5-6
69Northwestern5-6
70Arkansas State6-5
71Middle Tennessee6-5
72Houston6-4
73Western Kentucky6-5
74Kentucky5-6
75San Diego State6-5
76Appalachian State6-5
77California5-6
78Michigan5-6
79South Alabama6-5
80UTEP6-5
81Pittsburgh5-6
82Navy5-5
83Oklahoma State5-6
84Texas State6-5
85Oregon State5-6
86UAB5-6
87Fresno State5-6
88Old Dominion5-6
89Ohio5-6
90Temple5-5
91Wyoming4-7
92Texas Tech4-7
93Akron5-6
94Purdue3-8
95Syracuse3-8
96South Florida4-7
97Ball State4-7
98Indiana3-8
99Florida International4-8
100Hawaii4-8
101Vanderbilt3-8
102Buffalo4-6
103Army4-7
104Washington State3-8
105Southern Miss3-8
106Louisiana-Monroe4-7
107Kansas3-8
108Tulane3-8
109Wake Forest3-8
110San Jose State3-7
111North Texas4-7
112New Mexico3-8
113Iowa State2-8
114Florida Atlantic3-8
115UTSA3-8
116Colorado2-9
117Troy3-8
118Connecticut2-8
119Massachusetts3-8
120Eastern Michigan2-9
121Miami (OH)2-9
122UNLV2-10
123Tulsa2-9
124New Mexico State2-9
125Kent State1-9
126Georgia State1-10
127Idaho1-9
128SMU0-10


2014 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State
Week 9 Mississippi State
Week 10 Mississippi State
Week 11 Mississippi State
Week 12 Florida State

2014-11-21

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 12, Thursday

New England over Arizona

I wonder what the record is for teams in their first game after elimination, as compared to pre-elimination. Oakland certainly tipped that balance in favor of the eliminated teams last night, waiting until their season was utterly meaningless to upset Kansas City. KC only lost by a little, so they're still the 4th strongest team. However, they were expected to win that game, so their odds of winning the AFC West just fell precipitously, and Denver's improved greatly. Even San Diego's chances almost doubled to over 9%.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
GB7-30.66253.69887.65168.98040.15322.92912.674
BAL6-40.65630.43253.45935.22419.37210.6985.872
NE8-20.65090.35795.60287.47449.29127.47614.900
KC7-40.64130.45169.11147.71825.93913.8957.407
ARI9-10.63190.45199.09994.62352.85827.93914.502
DAL7-30.59445.25173.87747.77823.03411.2175.392
DEN7-30.59360.42379.53460.01729.69914.0876.796
IND6-40.59280.59482.44747.80923.08111.0235.309
MIA5-50.5916.99326.01114.7457.0373.4321.650
SEA6-40.5876.41440.81324.24411.3355.4112.558
DET7-30.58545.82381.22857.38727.82013.1376.197
PHI7-30.58054.69371.89644.75120.9069.8714.602
SD6-40.5599.12626.77314.8916.6943.0111.347
HOU5-50.55419.38731.41916.5697.3033.2151.423
CLE6-40.54815.84530.84016.4837.1353.0961.352
PIT7-40.54630.41653.10931.10413.4615.7752.515
SF6-40.5393.11639.34920.7158.6553.7081.577
NO4-60.51655.19155.21423.3419.2103.7141.501
BUF5-50.5142.6507.7423.6131.4480.5920.240
CIN6-3-10.50623.30743.93624.3489.5413.7011.468
ATL4-60.46836.86336.88413.9224.8871.7510.627
CHI5-50.4110.4505.0201.8370.5480.1710.053
MIN4-60.4110.0300.5430.1820.0540.0170.005
WAS3-70.3980.0210.0660.0210.0060.0020.001
NYG3-70.3880.0340.0570.0180.0050.0010.000
STL4-60.3560.0190.3580.1030.0260.0070.002
TB2-80.3450.3870.3870.1050.0260.0060.002
CAR3-7-10.3417.5597.5591.9930.4780.1180.029
TEN2-80.3330.0180.0180.0050.0010.0000.000
NYJ2-80.3260.0010.0010.0000.0000.0000.000
OAK1-100.287------
JAC1-90.2810.0010.0010.0000.0000.0000.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]

2014-11-20

2013 Allen and Ginter Set

You read that title right; we're throwing back allllll the way to 2013.

I bought the full set (almost) from Nachos Grande last year, and it's been sitting on my shelf as I procrastinated entering the cards into my Zistle account. I actually purchased the non-SPs only, and this was also at the beginning of Puig-mania, so a Puig-free set was offered at a substantial discount, so I decided to take a chance that Yasiel Puig would cool off a bit, along with the prices for his cards. So far that doesn't seem to be happening, though. In any case, the set I purchased was 299 of the 300 base cards. In a separate purchase, I bought all 50 of the SPs, so I'm at 349/350, needing only a Puig to finish off the set.

I decided while flipping through the cards again that I'd go ahead and post the Cardinals like I normally do, but there were a large number of them by my criteria. I tried to split them up somewhat logically, though with all of the retired players the divisions became a bit fuzzy. Today was supposed to be players who have moved on from the team.


2013 Allen and Ginter
#5 Albert Pujols
#12 Dan Haren
#20 John Smoltz
#27 Shelby Miller
#46 Colby Rasmus
#93 A.J. Pierzynski
The Shelby Miller trade caught me off guard, and I had to re-scan my cards. Also, I don't know what I was thinking putting A.J. Pierzynski in this pile, even though he is technically a free agent right now. He could still be a Cardinal next year, though he may just as easily be playing somewhere else. Also, Smoltz retired after a partial season with the Cardinals, so one could argue he should have been in the next post, with guys like Ozzie Smith.

2013 Allen and Ginter
#183 Ryan Ludwick
#189 David Freese
#208 Allen Craig
#235 Carlos Beltran
#245 Mark Buehrle
#284 Will Clark
Will Clark's another guy who finished with the Cardinals, though he clearly had the most productive years of his career elsewhere. And Mark Beuhrle has never been a Cardinal, though I still suspect he'd give them a pretty good hometown discount. I like to track his cards just because he grew up in the same town as me.

In conclusion...these are some random 2013 Allen and Ginter cards of guys I collect for reasons not limited to playing for the Cardinals?

2014-11-18

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 11, Final

New England over Arizona

Very little changed with the narrow Pittsburgh win over Tennessee last night, in fact, neither team changed rank by strength. Pittsburgh stole a little bit of Division winning chance from Baltimore, Cleveland, and Cincinnati, and Tennessee gave up a little to Indianapolis and Houston (and just a smidge to Jacksonville), but everyone's pretty much where they were yesterday.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
GB7-30.66253.69687.65368.98540.15822.93412.571
BAL6-40.65630.51851.54833.28517.9799.8415.402
NE8-20.65090.35795.33586.15648.40426.53214.388
KC7-30.64851.68786.66167.66937.69320.34210.989
ARI9-10.63190.35399.08094.56752.83027.92414.363
DAL7-30.59445.25373.89647.79823.04411.2215.343
DEN7-30.59343.44876.67054.42926.34612.4376.000
IND6-40.59280.59482.18046.30421.93510.3925.005
MIA5-50.5916.99224.55813.8216.5323.1391.508
SEA6-40.5876.45340.65624.16711.3015.3942.524
DET7-30.58545.82581.31957.44327.84613.1496.142
PHI7-30.58054.69271.90044.76420.9139.8764.560
SD6-40.5594.86523.63512.5395.5192.4621.101
HOU5-50.55419.38729.97515.4376.6752.9121.289
CLE6-40.54815.88529.04815.1156.4122.7571.204
PIT7-40.54630.25751.26729.60712.6045.3572.333
SF6-40.5393.17539.36820.7408.6683.7131.562
NO4-60.51655.18655.20923.3389.2073.7131.483
BUF5-50.5142.6517.3333.3701.3330.5360.217
CIN6-3-10.50623.34041.76922.2658.5663.2941.307
ATL4-60.46836.86936.89113.9244.8871.7510.619
CHI5-50.4110.4505.0681.8530.5520.1730.052
MIN4-60.4110.0300.5450.1830.0540.0180.005
WAS3-70.3980.0210.0660.0210.0060.0020.001
NYG3-70.3880.0340.0570.0180.0050.0020.000
STL4-60.3560.0190.3470.1000.0250.0070.002
TB2-80.3450.3870.3870.1050.0260.0060.002
CAR3-7-10.3417.5587.5581.9930.4780.1180.029
TEN2-80.3330.0180.0180.0040.0010.0000.000
NYJ2-80.3250.0010.0010.0000.0000.0000.000
OAK0-100.287------
JAC1-90.2810.0010.0010.0000.0000.0000.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]

2014-11-17

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 11, Sunday

New England over Arizona

Oakland is finally officially eliminated, and New England takes over the AFC favorite spot. In the last two years, the first elimination came in week 12, with 2-9 Atlanta and 1-10 Kansas City earning the honors in 2013 and 2012.

In the NFC, the first team has reached a 99% certainty of a playoff spot, which of course is 9-1 Arizona. This is significantly later than 2012 when Houston managed it at 6-1 in week 7, and 2013, when Kansas City reached it by going 8-0 in week 8.

Earlier this week, when I saw Denver was only favored by 9.5 to 10.5 points over the Rams, I told a friend of mine that sounded like easy money, I should bet on Denver, but unfortunately there's no legal sports book nearby, nor do I "know a guy who knows a guy". The result of that game is why I don't gamble. As that game unfolded I kept waiting for the Rams collapse and for Peyton Manning to take control, but it never happened. I'm not giving up on the Rams just yet, even though their chances are pretty minuscule at this point. They do still have a game against the Raiders, so at least there's that.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
GB7-30.66253.69587.64668.96340.14022.92112.551
BAL6-40.65633.71553.31034.50618.62510.1875.592
NE8-20.65090.35795.47286.56148.62426.61914.434
KC7-30.64851.77987.20868.24438.00320.48811.067
ARI9-10.63190.35299.08094.57052.82727.92014.349
DAL7-30.59445.33073.93547.85723.07411.2375.346
DEN7-30.59343.36977.22854.90126.54312.5166.038
IND6-40.59280.55182.27846.64322.06510.4395.028
MIA5-50.5916.99225.48514.3216.7513.2391.556
SEA6-40.5876.45240.67224.17511.3065.3962.524
DET7-30.58545.82681.33157.45327.85313.1566.138
PHI7-30.58054.61471.80444.67920.8739.8584.546
SD6-40.5594.85224.53212.9955.7072.5421.137
HOU5-50.55419.38930.57115.7836.8112.9661.313
CLE6-40.54817.45230.39815.7916.6902.8731.255
PIT6-40.54124.08242.09623.5399.8794.1491.785
SF6-40.5393.17639.39520.7548.6743.7161.562
NO4-60.51655.20855.23123.3509.2153.7181.484
BUF5-50.5142.6517.6643.5281.3910.5590.226
CIN6-3-10.50624.75243.69423.1708.9053.4221.358
ATL4-60.46836.89636.91713.9354.8931.7530.619
CHI5-50.4110.4505.0741.8560.5530.1730.052
MIN4-60.4110.0300.5460.1830.0550.0180.005
WAS3-70.3980.0220.0670.0210.0060.0020.001
NYG3-70.3880.0340.0570.0180.0050.0010.000
STL4-60.3560.0190.3480.1000.0250.0070.002
TB2-80.3450.3830.3830.1040.0260.0060.002
CAR3-7-10.3417.5137.5141.9820.4750.1180.029
TEN2-70.3380.0590.0640.0170.0040.0010.000
NYJ2-80.3260.0010.0010.0000.0000.0000.000
OAK0-100.287------
JAC1-90.2810.0010.0010.0000.0000.0000.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]

2014-11-16

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 12

Alabama knocked off Mississippi State, and jumped over them in the rankings to #2. At #1 is undefeated Florida State. Alabama's win and the bye for Ole Miss brought them down to #8 and out of the top 4 this week.

I have nothing against Florida State, but I was really rooting for Miami to finish off their upset last night, leaving only one undefeated team, Marshall, who I have up to #9 now. Marshall's remaining games are against current #81 and #83 Western Kentucky and UAB, so their strength of schedule won't be terribly strong. And, my rankings are giving them way more credit than the playoff selection committee. I'll be rooting for them the rest of the way, partially to see if the committee would be so bold as to deny one of only 2 undefeated teams entry into a 4-team playoff.

Missouri continues to climb in the rankings, now up to #13 from #23 by beating #24 Texas A&M. Georgia is now right behind them at #14.  Missouri should be able to win their last 2 games to make the SEC title game, where I fully expect them to get stomped by Alabama. If they lose to Tennessee or Arkansas, they can't make the title game, if I understand my tiebreakers correctly, because Georgia is finished with SEC play at 6-2, and Missouri's 5-1 means a 1-1 finish would tie the teams, which would then be broken by Georgia's victory earlier this year.

Down at the bottom of the rankings, we have SMU, 0-9 and holding on strong to the last spot.

1Florida State10-0
2Alabama9-1
3Mississippi State9-1
4Oregon9-1
5Ohio State9-1
6TCU9-1
7Georgia Tech9-2
8Ole Miss8-2
9Marshall10-0
10UCLA8-2
11Colorado State9-1
12Michigan State8-2
13Missouri8-2
14Georgia8-2
15Wisconsin8-2
16Boise State8-2
17Nebraska8-2
18Baylor8-1
19Arizona State8-2
20Arizona8-2
21Auburn7-3
22Clemson7-3
23Utah State8-3
24Kansas State7-2
25Utah7-3
26Duke8-2
27LSU7-4
28Texas A&M7-4
29Oklahoma7-3
30Notre Dame7-3
31Air Force8-2
32Minnesota7-3
33Northern Illinois8-2
34USC7-3
35Louisville7-3
36Louisiana-Lafayette7-3
37Louisiana Tech7-3
38Miami (FL)6-4
39Iowa7-3
40Georgia Southern8-3
41Maryland6-4
42West Virginia6-4
43Memphis7-3
44North Carolina State6-5
45Boston College6-4
46Bowling Green7-3
47Rutgers6-4
48Central Michigan7-4
49Washington6-5
50Tennessee5-5
51Western Michigan7-3
52Nevada6-4
53UCF6-3
54BYU6-4
55Cincinnati6-3
56Texas6-5
57Penn State6-4
58Toledo6-4
59Virginia Tech5-5
60Arkansas State6-4
61East Carolina6-3
62Arkansas5-5
63Florida5-4
64North Carolina5-5
65South Carolina5-5
66Rice6-4
67California5-5
68South Alabama6-4
69Stanford5-5
70Michigan5-5
71Kentucky5-6
72UTEP6-4
73Oklahoma State5-5
74Navy5-5
75Houston5-4
76Oregon State5-5
77Northwestern4-6
78Middle Tennessee5-5
79Illinois4-6
80Virginia4-6
81Western Kentucky5-5
82Ohio5-5
83UAB5-5
84Appalachian State5-5
85Temple5-5
86San Diego State5-5
87Wyoming4-6
88Pittsburgh4-6
89Texas State5-5
90Purdue3-7
91Syracuse3-7
92South Florida4-6
93Fresno State4-6
94Florida International4-7
95Indiana3-7
96Washington State3-7
97Texas Tech3-7
98Akron4-6
99Buffalo4-6
100Vanderbilt3-7
101Kansas3-7
102Tulane3-7
103Southern Miss3-8
104Hawaii3-8
105Iowa State2-7
106Ball State3-7
107San Jose State3-7
108New Mexico3-7
109Florida Atlantic3-7
110UTSA3-7
111Louisiana-Monroe3-7
112Colorado2-8
113Army3-7
114North Texas3-7
115Wake Forest2-8
116Troy3-8
117Massachusetts3-7
118Connecticut2-7
119Eastern Michigan2-8
120UNLV2-9
121Miami (OH)2-9
122Tulsa2-8
123New Mexico State2-8
124Georgia State1-9
125Kent State1-9
126Idaho1-9
127SMU0-9


2014 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State
Week 9 Mississippi State
Week 10 Mississippi State
Week 11 Mississippi State

2014-11-14

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Denver over Arizona

Miami and Buffalo didn't affect much last night, as you might expect from a 5-4 vs 4-5 divisional matchup. New England got a slight bump in its Division Title chances due to the teams now both being 5-5 instead of Buffalo being 6-4. But, it wasn't enough to let them catch Denver atop the AFC.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL6-40.65733.78354.32034.49118.87410.3845.786
KC6-30.64030.77078.54953.99529.03515.5098.360
PHI7-20.63468.84286.56965.74835.85619.44310.115
IND6-30.62592.76693.73465.14033.88817.4659.140
GB6-30.61931.97266.12443.42122.48711.7655.942
NE7-20.61982.25488.19769.69435.87118.1999.412
DEN7-20.61366.59491.25073.54037.28718.6809.535
ARI8-10.60981.77096.74284.92044.48122.52111.129
DET7-20.60067.29390.99470.98035.82817.8708.673
DAL7-30.59530.94070.33743.60921.41610.5865.077
SEA6-30.59315.01954.37833.06616.1367.9003.775
MIA5-50.59213.00427.71115.3117.3483.5181.718
CLE6-30.58034.02054.15032.74115.2427.0633.367
NO4-50.54672.53072.59132.87414.2876.2402.685
PIT6-40.54122.08645.83524.64310.4534.4211.934
SD5-40.5412.63618.7719.0593.8731.6600.725
SF5-40.5253.20027.51513.4645.5922.3510.962
HOU4-50.5197.19214.3686.5442.6591.0810.449
BUF5-50.5144.7389.3444.1641.6660.6660.274
CIN5-3-10.47110.11123.71710.6643.8001.3530.501
ATL3-60.46518.80718.8667.0602.5240.9090.321
WAS3-60.4370.1160.5430.1880.0630.0220.007
MIN4-50.4300.4043.7241.3570.4420.1480.048
NYG3-60.4040.1020.5370.1700.0520.0160.005
CHI4-50.4010.3312.2890.7810.2340.0730.021
CAR3-6-10.3498.5838.5902.3090.5890.1520.038
STL3-60.3390.0110.1220.0320.0080.0020.000
TEN2-70.3380.0400.0480.0120.0030.0010.000
NYJ2-80.3250.0050.0050.0010.0000.0000.000
TB1-80.3240.0790.0800.0200.0050.0010.000
OAK0-90.3100.0000.000----
JAC1-90.2810.0010.0010.0000.0000.0000.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]