Superbowl LI Projection, Week 11, Sunday

Dallas over New England

I'm a little surprised Dallas didn't crack the 99.9% playoff barrier yet. A strong division is holding them back a little bit, only 89% likely to win the NFC East. New England has the reverse situation, where they lost this week, but are still 2 games ahead of Miami, 3 games ahead of Buffalo, and 5 games ahead of New York.

Cleveland has been officially eliminated, but now another team is messing with my numbers. San Francisco can't win their division, but aren't completely out of the playoff hunt just yet. I generally test a theory like this by running a set of dummy simulations, forcing the team in question to win all their games, having any teams that have clinched a higher position win out (Dallas and Seattle with 9 and 7.5 wins in this case), and having all interconference games won by the opposite conference team. Even after forcing all those situations for San Francisco, I showed them with a very small chance of making the playoffs. Since I ran 1 billion simulations, I'll say they're somewhere around 1 in a billion, give or take a few orders of magnitude.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DAL	9-1	0.675	89.05	99.29	94.57	59.78	36.19	20.94
NE	8-2	0.671	93.95	98.55	96.13	60.92	37.89	21.42
PHI	5-5	0.616	0.64	25.60	14.74	6.98	3.66	1.89
SEA	7-2-1	0.606	95.43	97.39	87.85	48.73	23.61	11.95
DEN	7-3	0.606	28.70	72.29	54.22	29.03	14.67	7.28
ARI	4-5-1	0.580	4.42	14.92	8.50	3.88	1.86	0.89
KC	7-3	0.579	34.16	72.38	53.10	27.37	12.83	6.01
BUF	5-5	0.575	0.70	25.07	14.55	6.57	3.20	1.49
MIN	6-4	0.570	54.84	67.66	40.88	18.74	8.59	4.03
ATL	6-4	0.557	76.77	78.74	44.84	19.98	8.84	4.04
PIT	5-5	0.547	49.67	52.66	27.21	12.21	5.48	2.40
WAS	6-3-1	0.540	2.87	58.80	30.28	12.21	5.41	2.38
OAK	7-2	0.539	37.06	78.26	57.47	26.71	11.40	4.90
BAL	5-5	0.529	44.34	45.97	22.52	9.61	4.18	1.76
SD	4-6	0.523	0.08	3.26	1.70	0.66	0.29	0.12
DET	6-4	0.512	41.33	54.07	28.21	11.22	4.49	1.86
TEN	5-6	0.511	7.51	11.42	5.54	2.22	0.93	0.37
NYG	7-3	0.509	7.44	67.14	34.39	12.99	5.31	2.18
MIA	6-4	0.504	5.34	35.71	19.91	7.91	3.29	1.30
NO	4-6	0.498	8.77	10.58	4.80	1.79	0.70	0.28
CAR	4-6	0.496	3.83	5.32	2.39	0.87	0.34	0.14
IND	5-5	0.483	21.80	26.13	11.85	4.45	1.71	0.64
TB	5-5	0.455	10.63	14.77	6.23	2.10	0.74	0.27
GB	4-6	0.448	3.80	4.92	2.02	0.66	0.23	0.08
CIN	3-6-1	0.441	5.99	6.03	2.29	0.78	0.27	0.09
HOU	6-3	0.436	70.63	72.15	33.47	11.54	3.85	1.28
LA	4-6	0.397	0.15	0.76	0.29	0.08	0.03	0.01
NYJ	3-7	0.364	0.01	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00
JAC	2-8	0.362	0.06	0.06	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
CHI	2-8	0.328	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	1-9	0.323	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-11	0.262	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England