2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 30

Carolina over St. Louis

Round 2
COL 1-1 SJS
DAL 1-2 STL
CBJ 1-1 BOS
CAR 2-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	55.6	33.4	20.9
CAR	0.547	79.0	34.6	17.9
STL	0.551	73.4	38.4	17.6
SJS	0.551	52.5	28.0	13.1
CBJ	0.553	44.4	21.5	11.2
COL	0.528	47.5	21.5	8.6
NYI	0.575	21.0	10.5	6.1
DAL	0.519	26.6	12.1	4.6

With a 2-1 series lead, St. Louis is now the favorite in the West. I realized that my table itself doesn't capture the projected matchup and winner correctly. Carolina is indeed the most likely team to win in the East, and is weaker than St. Louis, so I initially wrote "St. Louis over Carolina" at the top. However, since I take home ice into account, Carolina would be 50.7% likely to win that series, as both teams have 99 points and (if I have implemented it correctly), Carolina would get home ice advantage based on tiebreakers. Also, annoyingly, Boston is still the overall favorite, despite not being the Eastern conference favorite.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 29

Carolina over San Jose

Round 2
COL 1-1 SJS
DAL 1-1 STL
CBJ 1-1 BOS
CAR 2-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	55.6	33.4	21.1
CAR	0.547	79.0	34.6	18.1
SJS	0.551	52.5	28.7	13.4
STL	0.551	54.0	28.3	12.9
CBJ	0.553	44.4	21.5	11.4
COL	0.528	47.5	22.1	8.9
DAL	0.519	46.0	20.9	8.0
NYI	0.575	21.0	10.5	6.2

Colorado evened the series against San Jose, but San Jose remains the Western Conference favorite. In the East, the situation is a little odd. Carolina is the most likely team to win the East, slighty above Boston. However, Boston is more likely to be the overall winner. There's just one game today, St. Louis at Dallas, as an extra off day has been inserted into both Eastern Conference series.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 28

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 0-1 SJS
DAL 1-1 STL
CBJ 1-1 BOS
CAR 1-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	55.6	32.8	20.5
SJS	0.551	69.9	38.2	17.6
CAR	0.547	60.3	26.4	13.6
STL	0.551	54.0	27.5	12.4
NYI	0.575	39.7	19.8	11.7
CBJ	0.553	44.4	21.0	10.9
DAL	0.519	46.0	20.3	7.7
COL	0.528	30.1	14.0	5.5

Dallas and Columbus evened both of their series at 1, and we're about as uncertain as we can be at this point. Boston and San Jose are still the favorites to make the final, but it's far from a foregone conclusion. In retrospect, I can see how it might have been more logical to have the Dallas-St. Louis game in the evening and the Boston-Columbus game during the day, especially when I was watching Columbus win the game about 11pm Central time, or midnight Eastern.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 27

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 0-1 SJS
DAL 0-1 STL
CBJ 0-1 BOS
CAR 1-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	72.8	43.0	26.7
SJS	0.551	69.9	37.4	16.8
STL	0.551	71.4	36.4	16.0
CAR	0.547	60.3	25.2	12.8
NYI	0.575	39.7	19.0	11.1
CBJ	0.553	27.2	12.8	6.6
COL	0.528	30.1	13.6	5.3
DAL	0.519	28.6	12.6	4.7

San Jose won to take back the Western Conference lead, and Carolina upset New York to flip the favorite in that series. Everyone in St. Louis is whining about the 2pm start time today for some reason, and tonight Columbus and Boston play as well.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 26

Boston over St. Louis

Round 2
COL 0-0 SJS
DAL 0-1 STL
CBJ 0-1 BOS
CAR 0-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	72.8	42.2	26.3
STL	0.551	71.4	37.1	16.2
NYI	0.575	57.7	27.6	16.2
SJS	0.551	56.6	30.3	13.4
CAR	0.547	42.3	17.6	9.1
COL	0.528	43.4	19.7	7.5
CBJ	0.553	27.2	12.5	6.5
DAL	0.519	28.6	12.9	4.7

Boston and St. Louis won their opening games of round 2, and are now your conference favorites. St. Louis took over the lead from San Jose, while Boston solidified their position. The other two series begin tonight, and for the most part every series will go every other day.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 25

Boston over San Jose

Round 2
COL 0-0 SJS
DAL 0-0 STL
CBJ 0-0 BOS
CAR 0-0 NYI

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 4-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	60.2	34.8	21.9
NYI	0.575	57.7	28.5	16.8
SJS	0.551	56.6	30.8	13.8
STL	0.551	58.4	30.4	13.5
CBJ	0.553	39.8	18.4	9.6
CAR	0.547	42.3	18.3	9.5
COL	0.528	43.4	20.1	7.8
DAL	0.519	41.6	18.8	7.0

All the Canadian teams are out, all the Division winners are out, but the playoffs will march on. There were a total of 5 upsets by seed, all the wildcards over all 4 number 1s, plus #3 St. Louis over #2 Winnipeg. Boston and San Jose are still the favorites to make the final, and even though round 1 finished last night, round 2 starts tonight with St. Louis hosting Dallas and Boston hosting Columbus.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 24

Boston over San Jose

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-4 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-4 BOS
CAR 3-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
BOS	0.592	100.0	60.2	34.7	21.8
NYI	0.575	100.0	55.0	27.2	16.1
SJS	0.551	100.0	56.6	30.8	13.7
STL	0.551	100.0	58.4	30.4	13.5
CBJ	0.553	100.0	39.8	18.3	9.6
COL	0.528	100.0	43.4	20.1	7.8
DAL	0.519	100.0	41.6	18.8	7.0
WSH	0.555	55.8	26.3	11.8	6.5
CAR	0.547	44.2	18.7	8.1	4.2

Boston and San Jose both won their game 7 battles, and are now each the favorite in their conference. New York is dominated by Boston due to a huge strength difference, but San Jose is projected to win based on home ice advantage. In the table above they appear tied with St. Louis in strength, but to more decimal places, St. Louis is ahead .55093 to .55078. that's still a minuscule difference, as, for example one more goal scored by San Jose would have bumped them up to .55249. There's one last game remaining in round 1, game 7 between Carolina and Washington.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 23

New York Islanders over St. Louis

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-3 SJS
DAL 4-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-3 BOS
CAR 3-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
NYI	0.575	100.0	55.0	28.5	16.9
STL	0.551	100.0	58.4	31.2	14.1
BOS	0.592	57.7	34.7	20.0	12.6
CBJ	0.553	100.0	42.4	19.4	10.3
COL	0.528	100.0	44.5	20.5	8.2
SJS	0.551	56.1	31.8	17.3	7.9
DAL	0.519	100.0	41.6	19.4	7.4
WSH	0.555	55.8	26.3	12.4	6.9
TOR	0.565	42.3	22.9	11.2	6.4
VGK	0.540	43.9	23.8	11.6	4.9
CAR	0.547	44.2	18.7	8.4	4.4

Dallas clinched their series and will face St. Louis in round 2, which boosts St. Louis up a little bit from yesterday, given that Dallas is a weaker team than Nashville, and that they will not have home ice advantage whereas Nashville would have. Carolina tied Washington, to force a game 7 on Wednesday night. The other two game 7s (games 7?) are tonight, with Canada's last hope Toronto looking to stay alive against Boston, and Vegas and San Jose facing off in the West.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 22

New York Islanders over St. Louis

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-3 SJS
DAL 3-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-3 BOS
CAR 2-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
NYI	0.575	100.0	54.1	28.0	16.5
STL	0.551	100.0	55.2	29.5	13.3
BOS	0.592	57.7	34.7	20.0	12.5
CBJ	0.553	100.0	42.4	19.4	10.2
WSH	0.555	76.0	35.8	16.9	9.2
COL	0.528	100.0	44.5	20.1	8.0
SJS	0.551	56.1	31.8	16.9	7.7
TOR	0.565	42.3	22.9	11.2	6.3
DAL	0.519	71.4	29.7	13.8	5.2
VGK	0.540	43.9	23.8	11.4	4.8
NSH	0.557	28.6	15.2	8.3	3.9
CAR	0.547	24.0	10.1	4.5	2.4

Boston and Vegas avoided elimination, extending both of their series to game 7. Nashville and Carolina will try to do the same tonight, both down 3-2.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 21

New York Islanders over St. Louis

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-2 SJS
DAL 3-2 NSH
STL 4-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-2 BOS
CAR 2-3 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
NYI	0.575	100.0	54.1	28.9	17.1
STL	0.551	100.0	55.2	30.0	13.8
TOR	0.565	72.4	39.3	19.1	10.9
CBJ	0.553	100.0	44.1	20.2	10.7
WSH	0.555	76.0	35.8	17.6	9.6
COL	0.528	100.0	45.2	20.4	8.2
VGK	0.540	74.1	40.2	19.2	8.2
BOS	0.592	27.6	16.6	9.5	6.0
DAL	0.519	71.4	29.7	14.1	5.4
NSH	0.557	28.6	15.2	8.4	4.0
SJS	0.551	25.9	14.6	7.8	3.6
CAR	0.547	24.0	10.1	4.7	2.5

St. Louis played like their early 2019 performance and not their late 2018, so outperformed my projections to move on to the next round. In the same portion of the bracket, Dallas beat Nashville to go up 3-2 for a chance to face St. Louis, and in the East, Washington took a 3-2 lead against Carolina in dominating fashion with a 6-0 win. There are now 4 teams who have advanced, but none of their opponents have yet been determined. I'll be interested to see if the extra rest makes a big difference in the next round. Of course, I'm hoping it does, to give the Blues a better shot.

We're down to 1 Canadian team out of the 3 that made the playoffs, which is just interesting given the history of the NHL. Toronto could advance Sunday, though, against fellow Original Six member Boston, while 1 very new team could clinch against the still relatively new (under 30 years is relatively new) San Jose.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 20

New York Islanders over St. Louis

Round 1
COL 4-1 CGY
VGK 3-2 SJS
DAL 2-2 NSH
STL 3-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 3-2 BOS
CAR 2-2 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
NYI	0.575	100.0	55.1	29.5	17.3
TOR	0.565	72.4	39.3	19.3	10.8
CBJ	0.553	100.0	44.1	20.3	10.6
STL	0.551	74.9	38.8	21.1	9.7
NSH	0.557	58.1	30.7	17.1	8.1
COL	0.528	100.0	45.2	19.9	8.0
VGK	0.540	74.1	40.2	18.7	8.0
WSH	0.555	53.7	25.3	12.4	6.7
BOS	0.592	27.6	16.6	9.6	6.0
CAR	0.547	46.3	19.6	9.0	4.6
SJS	0.551	25.9	14.6	7.6	3.6
WPG	0.554	25.1	13.2	7.3	3.4
DAL	0.519	41.9	17.3	8.2	3.2

Colorado beat the stronger Calgary team, weakening the field for St. Louis who becomes even more of a favorite in the West. Colorado, of course, also made a large jump, but aren't quite up to St. Louis' level yet. Toronto beat Boston to take a 3-2 lead in that series. Up on Saturday, St. Louis tries to clinch against Winnipeg, Carolina and Washington, and Dallas and Nashville both play game 5 to break their 2-2 tie.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 19

New York Islanders over St. Louis

Round 1
COL 3-1 CGY
VGK 3-2 SJS
DAL 2-2 NSH
STL 3-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 2-2 BOS
CAR 2-2 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
NYI	0.575	100.0	55.1	28.6	16.1
BOS	0.592	56.6	34.1	19.6	11.8
CBJ	0.553	100.0	42.4	19.5	9.8
STL	0.551	74.9	38.8	19.9	9.0
NSH	0.557	58.1	30.7	16.1	7.5
VGK	0.540	74.1	36.4	17.0	7.2
CGY	0.618	22.2	15.1	10.1	6.3
WSH	0.555	53.7	25.3	12.0	6.2
TOR	0.565	43.4	23.5	11.5	6.2
COL	0.528	77.8	35.2	15.5	6.2
CAR	0.547	46.3	19.6	8.8	4.3
SJS	0.551	25.9	13.3	7.0	3.2
WPG	0.554	25.1	13.2	6.8	3.2
DAL	0.519	41.9	17.3	7.7	2.9

With a 3-2 lead, St. Louis has taken over the lead in the West, at almost 20% likely to win it. New York remains in the lead in the East, and there are just 2 more games today. Colorado could clinch against Calgary, and Toronto and Boston will untie their 2-2 series.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 18

New York Islanders over Vegas

Round 1
COL 3-1 CGY
VGK 3-1 SJS
DAL 2-2 NSH
STL 2-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 2-2 BOS
CAR 1-2 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
NYI	0.575	100.0	54.3	28.2	15.9
BOS	0.592	56.6	34.1	19.6	11.8
CBJ	0.553	100.0	42.4	19.4	9.8
VGK	0.540	85.5	42.0	19.6	8.3
WSH	0.555	70.1	33.0	15.6	8.1
NSH	0.557	58.1	30.5	16.1	7.5
WPG	0.554	53.0	27.8	14.5	6.7
CGY	0.618	22.2	15.1	10.1	6.3
TOR	0.565	43.4	23.5	11.5	6.2
COL	0.528	77.8	35.4	15.5	6.2
STL	0.551	47.0	24.4	12.5	5.7
DAL	0.519	41.9	17.3	7.7	2.9
CAR	0.547	29.9	12.7	5.7	2.8
SJS	0.551	14.5	7.5	3.9	1.8

We're getting dangerously close to losing the top seed in the West, with Calgary down 3-1 and with a 22.2% chance of advancing. Vegas is now in the lead, with a 19.6% chance of returning to the final. The Central division portion of the bracket is the most even, with both series at 2-2 reasonably close to 50/50. Vegas can win their series tonight, St. Louis and Winnipeg will untie their series, and Washington and Carolina are only on game 4.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 17

Calgary over New York Islanders

Round 1
COL 2-1 CGY
VGK 3-1 SJS
DAL 1-2 NSH
STL 2-2 WPG
CBJ 4-0 TBL
TOR 2-1 BOS
CAR 1-2 WSH
PIT 0-4 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
NYI	0.575	100.0	54.3	28.8	15.6
CGY	0.618	45.9	31.3	20.7	13.1
CBJ	0.553	100.0	43.7	20.0	9.6
NSH	0.557	74.3	39.0	19.2	9.1
TOR	0.565	64.6	35.0	17.1	8.8
WSH	0.555	70.1	33.0	16.0	8.0
VGK	0.540	85.5	37.4	17.2	7.3
BOS	0.592	35.4	21.3	12.3	7.1
WPG	0.554	53.0	26.9	13.1	6.1
STL	0.551	47.0	23.5	11.3	5.2
COL	0.528	54.1	24.6	10.7	4.3
CAR	0.547	29.9	12.7	5.8	2.7
DAL	0.519	25.7	10.6	4.4	1.7
SJS	0.551	14.5	6.7	3.5	1.6

Tampa Bay did it. They became the first Presidents Trophy winner to get swept out of the first round. Good for them, I guess? Pittsburgh was also swept, and we've got 2 teams into the second round. Oddly, despite Calgary not being favored in their current series, at just 45.9%, and slightly less likely than Vegas to come out of their bracket section in the second round, 37.4% to 31.3%, they are the favorite to win their conference, at 20.7%. Next closest is Nashville at 19.2%. There are a few random extra off-days in the schedule, so there are 3 more games tonight, even though all 4 series that played Monday are still ongoing.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 16

Calgary over New York Islanders

Round 1
COL 2-1 CGY
VGK 2-1 SJS
DAL 1-2 NSH
STL 2-1 WPG
CBJ 3-0 TBL
TOR 2-1 BOS
CAR 1-2 WSH
PIT 0-3 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
NYI	0.575	94.5	51.4	25.5	13.8
CGY	0.618	45.9	31.1	20.6	12.5
NSH	0.557	74.3	39.2	19.1	8.6
TOR	0.565	64.6	31.9	15.6	8.1
CBJ	0.553	84.1	36.8	16.9	8.0
WSH	0.555	70.1	33.1	15.0	7.4
STL	0.551	68.4	34.2	16.3	7.1
TBL	0.682	15.9	11.9	9.1	6.9
BOS	0.592	35.4	19.5	11.2	6.5
VGK	0.540	67.2	29.4	13.5	5.5
COL	0.528	54.1	24.3	10.6	4.0
SJS	0.551	32.8	15.1	7.8	3.4
WPG	0.554	31.6	16.0	7.7	3.4
CAR	0.547	29.9	12.7	5.4	2.5
DAL	0.519	25.7	10.6	4.4	1.6
PIT	0.562	5.5	2.8	1.3	0.7

The projection stayed the same today, though got a little less certain. New York is in a better position than before with Washington losing, weakening their next average projected opponent. Calgary is still favored, but is down 2-1 in their series, lowering their chances of winning the West from 29.5% to 20.6%.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 15

Calgary over New York Islanders

Round 1
COL 1-1 CGY
VGK 2-1 SJS
DAL 1-1 NSH
STL 2-1 WPG
CBJ 3-0 TBL
TOR 1-1 BOS
CAR 0-2 WSH
PIT 0-3 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
CGY	0.618	65.1	44.1	29.5	17.7
NYI	0.575	94.5	50.8	24.8	13.0
BOS	0.592	53.3	29.4	16.9	9.5
WSH	0.555	81.1	38.4	17.0	8.2
CBJ	0.553	84.1	35.9	16.4	7.6
STL	0.551	68.4	35.7	16.0	6.9
TBL	0.682	15.9	11.7	8.9	6.8
NSH	0.557	55.2	29.1	13.4	6.0
TOR	0.565	46.7	23.0	11.2	5.6
VGK	0.540	67.2	26.5	12.4	5.0
WPG	0.554	31.6	16.7	7.6	3.3
SJS	0.551	32.8	13.7	7.2	3.1
COL	0.528	34.9	15.7	6.9	2.6
DAL	0.519	44.8	18.6	7.1	2.6
CAR	0.547	18.9	8.0	3.4	1.5
PIT	0.562	5.5	2.8	1.3	0.6

Tampa Bay, who came into the playoffs with a ridiculously high strength, are now down 0-3 and have lost their position at the top of the East, partially thanks to another team, the New York Islanders, also being up 3-0 in their series. They could be the first President's Trophy winner to be swept in the first round; the previous worst peformances is a 4-1 loss by Vancouver in 2012. In the West, Calgary remains on top but St. Louis is second, despite being 6th overall in cup chances.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 14

Tampa Bay over Calgary

Round 1
COL 1-1 CGY
VGK 1-1 SJS
DAL 1-1 NSH
STL 2-0 WPG
CBJ 2-0 TBL
TOR 1-1 BOS
CAR 0-2 WSH
PIT 0-2 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
CGY	0.618	65.1	43.8	29.3	16.6
TBL	0.682	37.8	27.9	21.3	16.1
NYI	0.575	81.8	44.0	19.5	10.2
BOS	0.592	53.3	25.7	14.8	8.3
STL	0.551	82.2	42.9	19.0	7.6
WSH	0.555	81.1	38.7	15.5	7.4
CBJ	0.553	62.2	26.5	12.2	5.6
NSH	0.557	55.2	29.1	13.3	5.5
TOR	0.565	46.7	19.9	9.8	4.9
SJS	0.551	50.2	21.0	11.0	4.5
VGK	0.540	49.8	19.6	9.2	3.4
COL	0.528	34.9	15.6	6.9	2.4
DAL	0.519	44.8	18.6	7.0	2.4
PIT	0.562	18.2	9.3	3.8	1.9
WPG	0.554	17.8	9.4	4.2	1.7
CAR	0.547	18.9	8.1	3.1	1.4

Calgary lost game 2 to tie the series at 1, but remains the most likely team to win the cup, holding off Tampa because they are down 0-2. Nashville and Boston both also tied their respective series, while the defending champions Washington are now up 2-0.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 13

Tampa Bay over Calgary

Round 1
COL 0-1 CGY
VGK 1-1 SJS
DAL 1-0 NSH
STL 2-0 WPG
CBJ 2-0 TBL
TOR 1-0 BOS
CAR 0-1 WSH
PIT 0-2 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
CGY	0.618	81.0	54.5	36.7	20.8
TBL	0.682	37.8	28.1	21.6	16.1
NYI	0.575	81.8	44.6	19.9	10.2
STL	0.551	82.2	44.2	18.6	7.5
TOR	0.565	60.4	25.8	12.7	6.2
WSH	0.555	67.2	32.0	13.0	6.1
BOS	0.592	39.6	19.1	11.0	6.0
CBJ	0.553	62.2	27.0	12.5	5.6
SJS	0.551	50.2	19.1	10.1	4.1
NSH	0.557	41.6	22.0	9.5	4.0
VGK	0.540	49.8	17.8	8.4	3.2
DAL	0.519	58.4	24.2	8.7	2.9
CAR	0.547	32.8	14.0	5.4	2.4
PIT	0.562	18.2	9.4	3.9	1.8
WPG	0.554	17.8	9.7	4.1	1.7
COL	0.528	19.0	8.5	3.8	1.3

We've got 1 split series and 3 with a team up 2-0, with St. Louis and Columbus both winning 2 road games. In spite of being behind in the series and only 37.8% likely to win, Tampa Bay is still the most likely team to win the East, because they have a very high strength value due to their goals scored and allowed this year, so in the event they can win this first round, they'll be massively favored in future rounds. New York is creeping up right behind them though, so Sunday's games could have them finally flip.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 12

Tampa Bay over Calgary

Round 1
COL 0-1 CGY
VGK 0-1 SJS
DAL 1-0 NSH
STL 1-0 WPG
CBJ 1-0 TBL
TOR 1-0 BOS
CAR 0-1 WSH
PIT 0-1 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
TBL	0.682	61.3	45.6	35.0	26.1
CGY	0.618	81.0	54.2	36.5	19.2
NYI	0.575	68.2	37.1	14.8	7.5
STL	0.551	65.1	35.0	14.6	5.4
WSH	0.555	67.2	32.3	11.6	5.4
TOR	0.565	60.4	21.4	10.7	5.2
SJS	0.551	67.8	25.8	13.6	5.1
BOS	0.592	39.6	16.1	9.4	5.1
NSH	0.557	41.6	21.9	9.4	3.6
CBJ	0.553	38.7	16.8	7.8	3.5
WPG	0.554	34.9	19.0	8.1	3.0
PIT	0.562	31.8	16.4	6.0	2.8
DAL	0.519	58.4	24.2	8.6	2.6
CAR	0.547	32.8	14.2	4.8	2.1
VGK	0.540	32.2	11.5	5.4	1.9
COL	0.528	19.0	8.4	3.8	1.2

All the first round series have finished game 1. Calgary is now the most likely team to make the final, but they're in the West and Tampa Bay out of the East would be projected to beat them. We'll have the more normal 4 games per day for awhile now, with each team getting just one day off between games.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 11

Tampa Bay over Calgary

Round 1
COL 0-0 CGY
VGK 0-1 SJS
DAL 1-0 NSH
STL 1-0 WPG
CBJ 1-0 TBL
TOR 0-0 BOS
CAR 0-0 WSH
PIT 0-1 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
TBL	0.682	61.3	45.1	34.6	26.1
CGY	0.618	70.7	47.4	31.9	16.8
NYI	0.575	68.2	37.6	14.8	7.7
BOS	0.592	57.6	23.5	13.6	7.6
STL	0.551	65.1	35.0	15.1	5.6
SJS	0.551	67.8	27.4	14.5	5.4
WSH	0.555	53.3	25.6	9.0	4.3
NSH	0.557	41.6	21.9	9.8	3.8
TOR	0.565	42.4	15.0	7.6	3.7
CBJ	0.553	38.7	16.4	7.6	3.5
WPG	0.554	34.9	19.0	8.3	3.1
CAR	0.547	46.7	20.2	6.7	3.0
PIT	0.562	31.8	16.6	6.0	2.9
DAL	0.519	58.4	24.2	8.9	2.7
VGK	0.540	32.2	12.3	5.8	2.0
COL	0.528	29.3	12.9	5.8	1.9

We had 5 games to open the playoffs, and 3 of them were upsets. Dallas and St. Louis's wins were not huge upsets, but Columbus raised their series-winning chances from 21.6% to 38.7% against the overwhelming strength of Tampa Bay. The two close series have flipped favorites, so that the team up 1-0 is now more likely than not to win, but I'd still favor Tampa Bay to overcome their 0-1 deficit over Columbus.

2019 Stanley Cup Projection, April 10

Tampa Bay over Calgary

Round 1
COL 0-0 CGY
VGK 0-0 SJS
DAL 0-0 NSH
STL 0-0 WPG
CBJ 0-0 TBL
TOR 0-0 BOS
CAR 0-0 WSH
PIT 0-0 NYI

Team	Strength	Round 2	Round 3	Finals	Cup
TBL	0.682	78.4	57.7	44.4	33.4
CGY	0.618	70.7	47.6	31.7	15.8
BOS	0.592	57.6	20.3	11.9	6.6
NYI	0.575	54.5	30.0	10.7	5.6
NSH	0.557	59.7	31.4	14.1	5.1
WPG	0.554	52.3	27.4	12.1	4.3
SJS	0.551	54.0	21.8	11.4	4.0
WSH	0.555	53.3	25.8	8.2	3.9
PIT	0.562	45.5	23.8	7.8	3.8
STL	0.551	47.7	24.6	10.7	3.7
TOR	0.565	42.4	12.8	6.5	3.2
CAR	0.547	46.7	20.3	6.1	2.7
VGK	0.540	46.0	17.6	8.2	2.6
CBJ	0.553	21.6	9.2	4.3	1.9
DAL	0.519	40.3	16.6	6.2	1.8
COL	0.528	29.3	13.0	5.7	1.7

It's time to kick off the playoff projections for the NHL. I'm still using the baseball-style model of projection using goals scored and allowed, with a home-ice advantage factored in per game. That works for the playoffs when there are no ties. I've got a couple other ideas for different models I hope to implement one of these years.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Tampa Bay is favored by far, with a +103 goal differential. They were the only team to score over 300 goals, all the way up at 325. On the other end, the only team to allow under 200 was the New York Islanders at 196, but they only scored 228 so they don't rise all the way up the list. But, they may surprise everyone and shut down some of these powerful offenses.