2011-12-29

Christmas 2011 Gifts

I just thought I'd share the sports related gifts I received for Christmas this year. First, two surprises

Rally Squirrel Long Sleeved T-Shirt
I didn't really jump on the Rally Squirrel movement, though I really enjoyed how there were plenty of cheap shirts to be had, since MLB didn't own "Rally Squirrel". Lots of people sold red shirts with squirrels and baseball-related items on it and no mention of any trademarked terms. Apparently MLB did put a shirt out anyway, and now I have one. I don't think I would have picked this out for myself, but I'll definitely wear it. It's a nice long-sleeved one too, good for those cold October night games.


2011 World Series Collector's Edition 8 DVD set
This is pretty cool, and I wasn't even aware it was available for purchase. I can now rewatch all 7 games along with the retrospective DVD with the highlights. In 2006, a friend and I actually went through the trouble of cropping the commercials out of some of the playoff games on his DVR, but we never got around to burning our creations to a DVD set. This should be good for the sporting lull between the Super Bowl and Opening Day.

Cardinals Road Cap with 2011 World Series Patch
I actually asked for all 3 caps from separate members of my family I knew would be giving me gifts (yes, even the Sunday cap that didn't get worn in the Series) but only wound up with the Road hat. I'm not sure why, I usually love when people tell me exactly what they want. No matter though, I now have proof to future generations we made the 2011 World Series.

2011 Topps World Series Champions Set
My return to card-collecting is still rather new to my family, but my wife is well aware of it due to the space I'm currently taking up in the basement getting it organized. Even so, she humored me when I spotted this set during our last minute shopping with about a week to go. I think the iconic image on the top card of Freese about to throw down his helmet cinched it for me. When she returned to Target to pick it up, there were only two left, and she grabbed one for me, and one for my nephew. I didn't think to ask who would have gotten the set if there was only one.

So, did you get any holiday gifts that us sports fans and sports card fans would enjoy? Let me know in the comments, or even feel free to link your own post.

2011-12-27

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 16, Final

San Francisco over New England

Green Bay is just barely behind San Francisco in the NFC now. The big win by New Orleans over Atlanta ate away at the SF and GB leads.

I've got just one regular season post left, as all the games will be on Sunday in Week 17.  Just like last year, the all-divisonal week 17 format worked out for the NFL, as they get a winner-take-all primetime game in Dallas vs. New York for the NFC East title.  Like I said before, I hope either Oakland or Denver can win next week, so that all of the playoff teams have 9+ wins.

Finally, let's go Colts! There's no way the Rams beat San Francisco this week (officially I have it at 2.79%), so all I need is a Colts win (35.09% chance) and we get our second #1 pick in 3 years.  Not something to be proud of, but maybe it's something we can use to turn things around, either with a high profile guy, or a trade down for multiple high picks.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF12-3++99.51060.20935.66822.222
GB14-1+++70.80535.47020.885
NO12-3++72.87732.15017.1389.679
NE12-3+++59.42330.86013.601
PIT11-428.973+87.92644.71023.35110.143
BAL11-471.027+94.95649.68025.32610.824
HOU10-5++69.97534.42217.0987.244
DET10-5-+62.49120.7937.3313.132
DAL8-762.26662.26626.0516.8811.9460.679
CIN9-6-50.64116.9955.4521.8490.506
ATL9-6-+27.6137.1132.0490.683
NYJ8-7-17.6805.4291.6010.4970.124
TEN8-7-14.2164.1831.1810.3510.083
NYG8-737.73437.73411.4582.0480.3980.098
OAK8-712.81630.2795.8551.0950.2220.035
DEN8-787.18487.18414.6802.4360.4460.061
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 16, Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)

2011-12-26

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 16, Sunday

San Francisco over New England

Green Bay eliminated Chicago last night and gained some ground on San Francisco, but they're still not my Superbowl favorites.  Tonight's game is somewhat meaningless, except for seeding purposes, as you can see New Orleans and Atlanta are already in the playoffs. Atlanta can still win the NFC South and get a home playoff game, so they at least have something to play for.  

For Dallas and New York's winner take all next week, I show a 62% chance of a Cowboys win.  I'm glad to see no 7-9 teams will make the playoffs this year, and in fact the only 8-8 will Denver if they and Oakland both lose next week, as all of the other 8-7 teams need a win (and help) to make it.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF12-3++99.64765.59038.73324.130
GB14-1+++68.89435.48220.893
NE12-3+++59.41830.85513.809
NO11-391.018+62.89524.80311.9926.182
PIT11-428.975+87.91444.70723.34810.296
BAL11-471.025+94.95349.68725.33111.007
HOU10-5++69.96734.40917.0947.359
DET10-5-+57.84019.1987.0643.015
ATL9-58.982+41.95212.6564.2801.669
DAL8-762.25962.25926.1826.8332.0310.709
CIN9-6-50.64316.9985.4571.8520.517
NYJ8-7-17.6805.4311.6020.4980.127
TEN8-7-14.2294.1881.1840.3520.086
NYG8-737.74137.74111.4842.0270.4180.103
OAK8-712.82130.2685.8541.0960.2230.036
DEN8-787.17987.17914.6962.4400.4470.063
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 16, Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)

2011-12-25

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 16, Saturday

San Francisco over New England

New England really took advantage of Baltimore and Pittsburgh's slip-ups last week, and now they've got a first round bye. Have I mentioned my distaste for New England? San Francisco has continued to get stronger as well, and despite not yet clinching a bye, has a better than 1 in 4 chance at winning it all.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF12-3++99.64965.56840.25825.078
GB13-1+++66.40932.33018.127
NO11-391.019+63.03424.96512.6256.507
NE12-3+++59.41230.84814.149
PIT11-428.975+87.91344.70723.34810.558
BAL11-471.025+94.95049.68225.33311.281
HOU10-5++69.96834.41317.0997.550
DET10-5-+57.99420.3177.5883.240
ATL9-58.98198.48541.21113.2614.5271.766
DAL8-762.25462.25426.1797.2062.1860.764
CIN9-6-50.64116.9985.4581.8520.535
CHI7-7-1.5150.4600.1230.0340.011
NYJ8-7-17.6745.4281.6030.4980.131
TEN8-7-14.2294.1881.1830.3520.089
NYG8-737.74637.74611.4732.1510.4520.111
OAK8-712.82130.2775.8581.0980.2230.037
DEN8-787.17987.17914.6982.4430.4470.065
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 16, Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 17

Some might say it's a little silly to rerun the numbers after a week of only 4 more games.  But that wouldn't be the first time I've been called silly or worse.  At least the top 25 were involved in the games this week.  You can always view last week to see all the changes, but here are the top 25 moves:

Boise State from #6 to #2.
Southern Miss from #16 to #7
TCU from #17 to #10

And, due to games in which they weren't involved, Alabama falls from #3 to #5, falling below Virginia Tech who stays at #4.

So one could argue that Boise State should now be in the championship game, of course that is only by virtue of their bowl game win, something that's not possible in the current setup.  However, if LSU loses, there's a good chance my computer rankings will put Boise State at #1.  That oughta get me some hits from the Pacific Northwest at least.

1LSU13-0
2Boise State12-1
3Oklahoma State11-1
4Virginia Tech11-2
5Alabama11-1
6Houston12-1
7Southern Miss12-2
8Stanford11-1
9Wisconsin11-2
10TCU11-2
11Oregon11-2
12Kansas State10-2
13Michigan10-2
14Clemson10-3
15South Carolina10-2
16USC10-2
17Georgia10-3
18Arkansas10-2
19Michigan State10-3
20Oklahoma9-3
21Baylor9-3
22Nebraska9-3
23Northern Illinois10-3
24Penn State9-3
25West Virginia9-3
26Arkansas State10-2
27Ohio10-4
28Cincinnati9-3
29Notre Dame8-4
30Toledo8-4
31Brigham Young9-3
32Temple9-4
33Rutgers8-4
34Tulsa8-4
35Louisiana-Lafayette9-4
36Virginia8-4
37Georgia Tech8-4
38North Carolina7-5
39Wyoming8-5
40Florida State8-4
41Louisiana Tech8-5
42Texas7-5
43Auburn7-5
44Louisville7-5
45San Diego State8-5
46Missouri7-5
47North Carolina State7-5
48Iowa7-5
49Washington7-5
50Marshall7-6
51Utah7-5
52California7-5
53Iowa State6-6
54Florida International8-5
55Southern Methodist7-5
56Texas A&M6-6
57Air Force7-5
58Pittsburgh6-6
59Western Michigan7-5
60Utah State7-6
61Western Kentucky7-5
62Miami (FL)6-6
63Florida6-6
64Nevada7-6
65Illinois6-6
66Ohio State6-6
67Mississippi State6-6
68Vanderbilt6-6
69Wake Forest6-6
70UCLA6-7
71Eastern Michigan6-6
72Arizona State6-7
73Ball State6-6
74Purdue6-6
75Tennessee5-7
76Northwestern6-6
77South Florida5-7
78Texas Tech5-7
79Kentucky5-7
80Syracuse5-7
81Navy5-7
82Kent State5-7
83Bowling Green5-7
84Connecticut5-7
85East Carolina5-7
86Hawaii6-7
87UTEP5-7
88North Texas5-7
89San Jose State5-7
90UCF5-7
91Arizona4-8
92Boston College4-8
93Rice4-8
94Louisiana-Monroe4-8
95Washington State4-8
96Fresno State4-9
97Minnesota3-9
98Miami (OH)4-8
99Oregon State3-9
100New Mexico State4-9
101Duke3-9
102Central Michigan3-9
103Kansas2-10
104Colorado3-10
105Buffalo3-9
106Maryland2-10
107Army3-9
108Ole Miss2-10
109Troy3-9
110Colorado State3-9
111UAB3-9
112UNLV2-10
113Idaho2-10
114Indiana1-11
115Middle Tennessee2-10
116New Mexico1-11
117Memphis2-10
118Tulane2-11
119Florida Atlantic1-11
120Akron1-11

2011-12-24

Contest Winnings from Card Hobbyist

A while back I won a contest at Card Hobbyist. As contest etiquette demands, I must post my winnings. Etiquette would probably also have me do it less than 2 months after the contest, but I don't have a time machine, this will have to do.
When this baby hits 88mph...
Right...anyway, onto the cards.
2011 Topps Lineage 3-D #T3D25 Albert Pujols
I must admit I was a little more excited when I first got this than I am now.  Several years from now I'm sure I'll look on his years here fondly like every other Cardinal-for-awhile.
1996 Stadium Club Extreme Players Gold #423 Norm Charlton
I swear this guy follows me around.  I've got one previous post with him, and another one already in the pipeline.
1992 Topps Gold #394 Denny Martinez
This was a bonus thrown in toward my eventual goal of the 1992 and 1993 Topps Gold sets. I love getting these.

Thanks to Card Hobbyist for the contest.  And go check out his blog.  It's cool and stuff.


2011-12-23

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 16, Thursday

San Francisco over New England

I figured Thursday night would barely be worth mentioning, but then Indianapolis went and pulled another upset.  Because the performance of a team in my system is barely made worse by a close loss than a close win, a large part of Houston's lost standings must be due to the hit in the standings they took.  A win last night would have kept them in the hunt for a first round bye, but that will be a tough path now.

Also, the Colts appear to also be bad at being bad, and that #1 pick is teetering on slipping away to the Rams.  That'd give me lots to think about this offseason.

I've removed the teams that can't make the playoffs from my table below, because there wasn't much information in it for them, except for records and relative strengths.  Although it is a little interesting to see that while KC is still alive, they are the 3rd worst team in the league.


TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF11-3++96.70161.89337.31423.550
GB13-1+++67.94034.04919.888
NO11-392.707+68.76828.83114.7447.955
NE11-3++99.84660.90333.14315.238
HOU10-5++67.60235.39018.7868.479
BAL10-466.049+91.78050.46825.88411.313
PIT10-433.951+81.60537.02717.0476.664
ATL9-57.29396.30942.82613.8244.9002.028
DET9-5-88.14141.33512.9804.3641.753
DAL8-683.78883.86140.27112.2124.0181.585
PHI6-86.3516.3512.7780.7450.2180.077
NYJ8-6-51.76118.4066.1122.2700.667
SD7-74.60718.8946.7672.1950.7810.223
CIN8-6-18.2486.2882.0020.7320.208
CHI7-7-6.6052.0900.5570.1610.055
SEA7-7-4.3391.1240.2830.0840.027
TEN7-7-5.7012.1200.5990.1860.047
ARI7-7-4.2760.9650.1790.0370.009
NYG7-79.86110.1183.1420.5570.1100.027
DEN8-684.91486.53221.7014.5811.0190.182
OAK7-76.93915.3243.4650.6810.1490.025
KC6-83.5403.5400.4190.0430.0050.000
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)

2011-12-22

Go Enter JABO's Contest


Kyle at Juuust a bit outside is holding a contest.  Just go let him know which of the 3 cards (David Wright, Ryan Braun, Nolan Ryan) you'd like and be entered to win that card.  I'm going for the Nolan Ryan, personally, because I'm an old guy trapped in a not-as-old body.

2011-12-21

Updated Trade and Want Lists, part II


In my last post, I detailed how I process my Zistle.com lists to generate have, want, and duplicate lists you can view all on one page.  That last post also yielded me half a trade from the very generous Dimwit.  I say half a trade because I still owe him his side.



I'm now up to 2 3000-count boxes that have been fully cataloged.  There are 4598 cards in these two boxes, so my packing rate has gotten a bit better.  Also I don't think they're in there as tight as when I only had one box done.  See that long strip of red cards?  Can you guess which set that is?

If you said 1990 Donruss, you're right.  I bought a few boxes back in the late 90s because they were cheap, and I never did complete the set.  But, the rest of them are on my want list.

Want List - You know what to do
Trade List - Or more properly, Duplicates List
Have List - If you see something on here you want, I might be willing to trade it, but I offer no guarantees.

2011-12-20

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 15, Final

San Francisco over New England

3 more teams clinched playoff spots this week; New England with a win, and Baltimore and Pittsburgh despite losses.  It looks like Tebow will probably lead the Broncos into the playoffs, but the 6-8 Chiefs aren't out of contention yet.  A win this week along with Denver and San Diego losses would allow them the opportunity to beat Denver for the AFC West in week 17, in a game that would likely get put on Sunday Night Football January 1 since it's win-and-in-lose-and-out, like the Rams-Seahawks last year.  Wow, to remember the Rams were a game away from hosting a playoff game last year seems a little surreal.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF11-3++96.70161.89537.32023.515
GB13-1+++67.93934.04719.864
NO11-392.709+68.76028.82614.7397.939
NE11-3++91.51355.38229.78213.698
HOU10-4++79.48644.56023.55210.662
BAL10-466.063+90.68847.76624.72910.812
PIT10-433.937+83.05737.27217.1226.693
ATL9-57.29196.30642.75613.8114.8972.022
DET9-5-88.15041.40312.9974.3701.751
DAL8-683.79183.86340.27812.2104.0161.580
PHI6-86.3536.3532.7790.7450.2180.077
NYJ8-6-51.78517.2055.6782.1360.629
SD7-74.60418.8936.2972.0300.7320.209
CIN8-6-18.2335.8921.8770.6900.196
CHI7-7-6.6072.0920.5570.1610.055
MIA5-9------
SEA7-7-4.3351.1230.2830.0840.027
TEN7-7-5.6881.6410.4620.1490.037
CAR5-9------
ARI7-7-4.2740.9660.1790.0370.009
NYG7-79.85510.1123.1420.5580.1100.027
BUF5-9------
DEN8-684.91486.53420.5984.3050.9650.173
WAS5-9------
OAK7-76.94215.3283.2050.6260.1380.023
MIN2-12------
CLE4-10------
JAC4-10------
TB4-10------
KC6-83.5403.5400.4190.0430.0050.000
IND1-13------
STL2-12------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)

2011-12-19

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 15, Sunday

Green Bay over New England

After Thursday, I had Green Bay and Baltimore in the championship, and both teams lost yesterday. Green Bay retained their Super Bowl slot, but Baltimore has slipped behind New England and is only slightly ahead of Pittsburgh.  Tonight's game has two teams near the top, so it could adjust either side of the projection for tomorrow.  On a side note, I have a years-old dislike of the Patriots, ever since they beat the Rams in Superbowl XXXVI and there should have been a few seconds left on the clock.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
GB13-1+++67.94636.77821.272
SF10-3++89.28051.90728.61116.404
NO11-392.711+76.41737.07419.02510.152
NE11-3++93.93255.11329.42514.255
HOU10-4++76.28441.06921.44210.232
BAL10-443.420+86.66044.11422.47910.370
PIT10-356.580+89.77245.02622.0699.881
ATL9-57.28996.17642.60714.2895.4892.237
DET9-5-87.79641.11813.4124.8761.927
DAL8-683.79583.86440.28812.9154.5151.753
PHI6-86.3516.3512.7760.7890.2460.086
NYJ8-6-51.79817.2065.7282.0680.649
SD7-74.60418.8936.1852.0060.7010.214
CIN8-6-18.2275.8721.8860.6620.201
CHI7-7-6.5672.0580.5520.1810.061
MIA5-9------
SEA7-7-5.0621.3980.3510.1130.036
TEN7-7-5.6801.6360.4640.1430.038
CAR5-9------
ARI7-7-4.0740.9170.1720.0410.010
NYG7-79.85410.1103.1410.5940.1260.030
BUF5-9------
DEN8-684.92686.54418.9963.9510.8770.169
WAS5-9------
OAK7-76.93315.3213.0770.6030.1290.023
MIN2-12------
CLE4-10------
JAC4-10------
TB4-10------
KC6-83.5363.5360.3810.0390.0040.000
IND1-13------
STL2-12------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)

2011-12-18

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 16

Once again, no changes in the top 25, because there were even fewer games this week than last week.  A lot of teams shuffled around within contiguous groups of 3 due to subtle strength of schedule changes, but in general only teams that moved much were the ones who won or lost since last Saturday. But, for the sake of posterity (and not being irritated with myself in the future when I go back to check), here's my full 120 team ranking.

1LSU13-0
2Oklahoma State11-1
3Alabama11-1
4Virginia Tech11-2
5Houston12-1
6Boise State11-1
7Stanford11-1
8Wisconsin11-2
9Oregon11-2
10Kansas State10-2
11Michigan10-2
12Clemson10-3
13South Carolina10-2
14USC10-2
15Georgia10-3
16Southern Miss11-2
17TCU10-2
18Arkansas10-2
19Michigan State10-3
20Oklahoma9-3
21Baylor9-3
22Nebraska9-3
23Northern Illinois10-3
24Penn State9-3
25West Virginia9-3
26Arkansas State10-2
27Ohio10-4
28Cincinnati9-3
29Notre Dame8-4
30Toledo8-4
31Brigham Young9-3
32Temple9-4
33Rutgers8-4
34Louisiana-Lafayette9-4
35Tulsa8-4
36Virginia8-4
37Georgia Tech8-4
38North Carolina7-5
39Wyoming8-5
40Florida State8-4
41Louisiana Tech8-4
42Texas7-5
43Auburn7-5
44Louisville7-5
45San Diego State8-5
46Missouri7-5
47North Carolina State7-5
48Iowa7-5
49Washington7-5
50Utah7-5
51California7-5
52Florida International8-4
53Iowa State6-6
54Southern Methodist7-5
55Texas A&M6-6
56Air Force7-5
57Pittsburgh6-6
58Western Michigan7-5
59Western Kentucky7-5
60Utah State7-6
61Miami (FL)6-6
62Florida6-6
63Nevada7-5
64Marshall6-6
65Illinois6-6
66Ohio State6-6
67Mississippi State6-6
68Vanderbilt6-6
69Wake Forest6-6
70UCLA6-7
71Arizona State6-6
72Eastern Michigan6-6
73Ball State6-6
74Purdue6-6
75Tennessee5-7
76Northwestern6-6
77South Florida5-7
78Texas Tech5-7
79Kentucky5-7
80Syracuse5-7
81Navy5-7
82Kent State5-7
83Bowling Green5-7
84Connecticut5-7
85Hawaii6-7
86East Carolina5-7
87North Texas5-7
88UTEP5-7
89San Jose State5-7
90UCF5-7
91Arizona4-8
92Boston College4-8
93Rice4-8
94Louisiana-Monroe4-8
95Washington State4-8
96Fresno State4-9
97Minnesota3-9
98Miami (OH)4-8
99Oregon State3-9
100New Mexico State4-9
101Duke3-9
102Central Michigan3-9
103Kansas2-10
104Colorado3-10
105Buffalo3-9
106Maryland2-10
107Army3-9
108Ole Miss2-10
109Troy3-9
110Colorado State3-9
111UAB3-9
112UNLV2-10
113Idaho2-10
114Indiana1-11
115Middle Tennessee2-10
116New Mexico1-11
117Memphis2-10
118Tulane2-11
119Florida Atlantic1-11
120Akron1-11

2011-12-16

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 15, Thursday

Green Bay over Baltimore

I was debating whether or not to even make a post today since not much changed, but Atlanta did get a big boost in overall playoff chances, from 78% up over 91%, so I figured it's worth it.  Jacksonville obviously didn't have anything to play for last night.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF10-3++91.57956.49231.58917.726
GB13-0+++68.34637.21120.771
HOU10-3++84.71748.28026.30513.467
BAL10-375.49199.99892.16954.66329.55515.107
NO10-391.969+71.58932.08115.5807.562
NE10-399.53599.96183.83942.03920.4409.483
PIT10-324.50999.99578.20536.85217.5948.028
ATL9-58.03191.05345.08815.4176.0382.391
NYJ8-50.46571.23128.00210.3874.1101.517
DET8-5-77.99938.48512.7664.7741.827
CHI7-6-23.52610.3083.3051.2280.457
DAL7-661.82363.04928.3738.5022.8280.983
TEN7-6-14.0614.4421.3380.4400.132
CIN7-6-5.8861.9070.5900.1850.055
MIA4-9------
PHI5-82.2872.3170.9000.2250.0630.019
SD6-70.6982.1740.6570.1910.0570.016
SEA6-7-2.8190.7250.1580.0440.012
NYG7-635.89136.28712.2282.5720.6120.153
BUF5-8------
DEN8-589.07090.11222.5995.0071.1820.262
ARI6-7-2.9510.7250.1370.0320.007
CAR4-9------
OAK7-610.01116.3613.4400.6500.1330.025
WAS4-9------
MIN2-11------
CLE4-9------
JAC4-10------
TB4-9------
KC5-80.2210.2210.0230.0020.0000.000
IND0-13------
STL2-11------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)

2011-12-15

The Pujols Contract, part II

Last week I posted about the Albert Pujols contract when it looked like it was down to the Marlins and Cardinals.  I was definitely a little taken aback by the sudden announcement of the Angels contract.

The post centered around a claim that Pujols would be paying way more in state taxes in St. Louis.  I got a comment, which is still rare on my blog, asking about the difference from the Angels, so I figured I might as well run the numbers.  Here they are.

City State Rate Angels Income Tax Cardinals Income Tax
HOU TX 0.00%


9 12.22 0
MIA FL 0.00%


4 5.43 0
SEA WAS 0.00% 10 16.08 0


TB FL 0.00% 3 4.82 0


TEX TX 0.00% 10 16.08 0


PHI PA 3.07%


3 4.07 0.13
PIT PA 3.07%


6 8.15 0.25
DET MI 4.35% 7 11.25 0.49 3 4.07 0.18
ARI AZ 4.54%


3 4.07 0.18
COL CO 4.63% 3 4.82 0.22 3 4.07 0.19
CHC IL 5%

9 12.22 0.61
CHW IL 5% 3 4.82 0.24


BOS MA 5.30% 3 4.82 0.26


BAL MD 5.50% 2 3.22 0.18


CIN OH 5.93%


9 12.22 0.72
CLE OH 5.93% 6 9.650.57


ATL GA 6%

3 4.07 0.24
KC MO 6% 3 4.82 0.29 3 4.07 0.24
STL MO 6%

81 110.00 6.60
MIL WI 7.75%

6 8.15 0.63
MIN MN 7.85% 6 9.65 0.76


DC DC 8.50%

4 5.43 0.46
NYM NY 8.97%

4 5.43 0.49
NYY NY 8.97% 6 9.65 0.87


LAA CA 9.30% 81 130.22 12.11


LAD CA 9.30% 3 4.820.45 7 9.51 0.88
OAK CA 9.30% 9 14.47 1.35


SD CA 9.30% 3 4.820.45 3 4.07 0.38
SF CA 9.30%
2 2.72 0.25
TOR Canada, eh 4 0 0


158 254 18.22 162 220 12.45
Profit of LAA over STL 28.22

To deal with the fact that the Angels do travel to Toronto, I just spread the income over just the 158 games in the US.  This essentially treats Toronto as the weighted average of the other games.  I'm sure it doesn't throw off the end number by much, but I have no idea what those games do to the tax bill.

This contract was also $34 Million more than the reported $220 Million Cardinals offer.  If the Cardinals had decided to match it, Albert would have been $3.85 Million better off in St Louis, due to the high tax rates in California (although somewhat alleviated by the games in Texas).  In fact, for $249.92 Million, the Cardinals could have had Albert for the same after-state-tax price.  That high tax average may come down a bit once Houston moves to the AL West, however, giving him another in-division 0% tax opponent.

In the end, Albert didn't have to look at nickels and dimes, or even hundreds of thousands, to make his decision.  He got tens of millions more, and I hope he's happy in Southern California.  I also hope the Cardinals are ultimately happy with their decision. Landing Pujols would have certainly cost a lot of money, but would have paid some returns in ticket sales and wins.  Hopefully we'll be able to parlay some of that money into 2 or 3 good players to help the team win even more.

2011-12-14

The Diamond King's End of Year MegaContest

Go check out the contest at The Diamond King. He's giving away 7 prizes, but you have to choose which one you want to try for.  All the details are in the contest link.  And of course, promote it like I am for an extra entry.

2011-12-13

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 14, Final

Green Bay over Baltimore

Green Bay does in fact have a first round bye, as the worst case scenario for them would be going 13-3 along with SF and NO, and they get at least 2nd in the tiebreaker scenarios. Baltimore is on the cusp of a playoff berth, with only about a 1 in 50,000 chance of missing the playoffs.  Pittsburgh and New England are not far behind, either.  And, on the hot story of the moment, Tim Tebow and the Broncos are now over 90% likely to make the playoffs.

On the other end, if I had my way, the #1 2012 draft pick would go to the Rams, because they're the worst team statistically again.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF10-3++91.76456.68731.81717.855
GB13-0+++70.01438.11721.280
HOU10-3++84.72848.28926.31113.461
BAL10-375.48699.99892.16654.65029.54515.092
NO10-394.856+73.70533.02516.1137.819
NE10-399.53499.96283.80542.01820.4309.474
PIT10-324.51499.99578.19836.85217.5948.025
NYJ8-50.46671.75828.21610.4704.1421.529
DET8-5-78.52440.25513.3484.9971.912
CHI7-6-31.08513.5274.3301.6240.604
DAL7-661.81464.59730.5639.1553.0541.062
ATL8-55.14478.98134.00710.0153.4411.189
TEN7-6-13.2474.1841.2610.4150.125
CIN7-6-5.9431.9230.5950.1870.056
MIA4-9------
PHI5-82.2872.3190.9560.2390.0670.020
SD6-70.7002.2100.6690.1940.0580.016
SEA6-7-3.5330.9460.2070.0580.015
NYG7-635.90036.86813.2032.7760.6630.166
BUF5-8------
DEN8-589.06790.14622.6145.0111.1830.263
ARI6-7-4.0921.0740.2040.0480.011
CAR4-9------
OAK7-610.01316.5213.4740.6570.1340.026
WAS4-9------
JAC4-9------
MIN2-11------
CLE4-9------
TB4-9------
KC5-80.2210.2210.0240.0020.0000.000
IND0-13------
STL2-11------
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)

2011-12-12

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 14, Sunday

Green Bay over Baltimore

So, NFL.com doesn't list Green Bay as having clinched a first round bye yet, but that + in the Wildcard round indicates that all 1.5 billion simulations had them either with a bye or winning their opening round game.  I suppose I need another column of stats, because they're probably something like 99.99% likely to get a bye, and in the few remaining scenarios they win every time.

Eliminated Sunday were Miami, Buffalo (after such a promising start), Carolina, Washington, and Tampa Bay.  The Rams crawled out of the #32 slot, but tonight's likely massacre will surely put them right back down there.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF10-3++91.93256.81431.88617.893
GB13-0+++69.99038.09621.268
HOU10-3++84.73548.29826.31513.463
BAL10-375.79499.99892.19454.67029.55715.097
NO10-394.856+73.45932.88416.0437.785
NE10-399.53499.96283.80942.02920.4339.475
PIT10-324.20699.99478.12336.80317.5718.014
NYJ8-50.46671.90228.28710.4944.1521.532
DET8-5-78.66440.32013.3655.0041.915
CHI7-6-32.34014.1004.5131.6910.629
DAL7-661.81364.59530.5589.1503.0531.062
ATL8-55.14478.62833.7999.9523.4201.182
TEN7-6-13.1844.1641.2540.4120.124
CIN7-6-5.8201.8830.5830.1830.055
MIA4-9------
PHI5-82.2872.3270.9580.2390.0670.020
SD6-70.7002.2200.6720.1950.0580.016
NYG7-635.90036.82913.1902.7720.6620.166
BUF5-8------
DEN8-589.06890.14722.6305.0141.1840.263
SEA5-7-2.1040.4990.0960.0240.006
ARI6-7-4.5131.1860.2250.0530.012
CAR4-9------
OAK7-610.01116.5523.4810.6580.1350.026
WAS4-9------
JAC4-9------
MIN2-11------
CLE4-9------
TB4-9------
KC5-80.2210.2210.0240.0020.0000.000
STL2-10------
IND0-13------
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay? (week 14, Sunday)

2011-12-11

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 15

There were no changes in the traditionally tracked top 25 with only the Army-Navy game being played in the FBS this week, but it did shift a few teams around due to their changed strengths of schdedule, hurting Army opponents and helping Navy opponents.  The changes at a glance:

Air Force jumps over Pittsburgh to 56.
Western Kentucky jumps over Miami to 60.
Tennessee jumps over Northwestern to 75.
Navy jumps from 89 to 81, over Connecticut, Kent State, Bowling Green, Hawaii, East Carolina, UTEP, and San Jose State.
Louisiana Monroe jumps 2 slots to 94, over Washington State and Fresno.
Army drops below Ole Miss, to 108.

I'm going to run the rankings again each week that has bowl games, but it will very much be a rich-get-richer situation, as the top teams will be playing each other and confirming their places at the top.  To me the most interesting scenarios are the ones in which LSU loses, as I suspect someone other than Alabama may take my #1 slot.

1LSU13-0
2Oklahoma State11-1
3Alabama11-1
4Virginia Tech11-2
5Houston12-1
6Boise State11-1
7Stanford11-1
8Wisconsin11-2
9Oregon11-2
10Kansas State10-2
11Michigan10-2
12Clemson10-3
13South Carolina10-2
14USC10-2
15Georgia10-3
16Southern Miss11-2
17TCU10-2
18Arkansas10-2
19Michigan State10-3
20Oklahoma9-3
21Baylor9-3
22Nebraska9-3
23Northern Illinois10-3
24Penn State9-3
25West Virginia9-3
26Arkansas State10-2
27Cincinnati9-3
28Notre Dame8-4
29Toledo8-4
30Brigham Young9-3
31Ohio9-4
32Rutgers8-4
33Tulsa8-4
34Virginia8-4
35Wyoming8-4
36Georgia Tech8-4
37North Carolina7-5
38Louisiana Tech8-4
39Florida State8-4
40Texas7-5
41Auburn7-5
42San Diego State8-4
43Louisville7-5
44Missouri7-5
45North Carolina State7-5
46Iowa7-5
47Washington7-5
48Temple8-4
49Utah7-5
50Louisiana-Lafayette8-4
51California7-5
52Iowa State6-6
53Florida International8-4
54Southern Methodist7-5
55Texas A&M6-6
56Air Force7-5
57Pittsburgh6-6
58Utah State7-5
59Western Michigan7-5
60Western Kentucky7-5
61Miami (FL)6-6
62Florida6-6
63Nevada7-5
64Illinois6-6
65Ohio State6-6
66Marshall6-6
67Mississippi State6-6
68Vanderbilt6-6
69Wake Forest6-6
70UCLA6-7
71Arizona State6-6
72Eastern Michigan6-6
73Ball State6-6
74Purdue6-6
75Tennessee5-7
76Northwestern6-6
77South Florida5-7
78Texas Tech5-7
79Kentucky5-7
80Syracuse5-7
81Navy5-7
82Connecticut5-7
83Kent State5-7
84Bowling Green5-7
85Hawaii6-7
86East Carolina5-7
87UTEP5-7
88San Jose State5-7
89North Texas5-7
90UCF5-7
91Arizona4-8
92Boston College4-8
93Rice4-8
94Louisiana-Monroe4-8
95Washington State4-8
96Fresno State4-9
97Minnesota3-9
98Miami (OH)4-8
99Oregon State3-9
100New Mexico State4-9
101Duke3-9
102Central Michigan3-9
103Kansas2-10
104Colorado3-10
105Maryland2-10
106Buffalo3-9
107Ole Miss2-10
108Army3-9
109Troy3-9
110Colorado State3-9
111UAB3-9
112UNLV2-10
113Idaho2-10
114Indiana1-11
115Middle Tennessee2-10
116New Mexico1-11
117Memphis2-10
118Tulane2-11
119Florida Atlantic1-11
120Akron1-11

2011-12-09

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 14, Thursday

San Francisco over Houston

Pittsburgh's strength ranking moved up two slots above New England and New Orleans, but still just below division rival Baltimore.  Despite now being up a half game on Baltimore, Pittsburgh still only holds a 30.5% chance of winning the AFC North.  Cleveland is officially eliminated from the AFC playoffs.  Since only the AFC North played yesterday, I guess I should cover the Bengals too.  They've outdone themselves this year, winning more than the strength formula says they should, but being in a division with Pittsburgh and Baltimore is going to make it very hard for them to make the playoffs

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF10-2++98.14662.44537.12421.339
HOU9-399.26899.60583.83547.98526.78614.036
GB12-0++99.97564.97132.67417.313
BAL9-369.47499.74390.65251.36726.44713.141
PIT10-330.52399.98180.55740.45520.0609.570
NE9-398.88099.64484.97842.74121.23010.054
NO9-395.46499.82464.55927.35213.8536.752
CHI7-5-70.85133.50511.7694.4701.746
DET7-5-57.99928.65510.0103.7851.478
DAL7-584.87487.21042.68413.9775.0241.871
MIA4-8-0.0050.0020.0010.0000.000
NYJ7-51.10946.14616.4115.6262.0190.687
ATL7-54.53663.98425.6657.9602.6960.936
TEN7-50.73229.79610.1143.3721.1760.385
CIN7-50.00317.9295.9501.9330.6510.207
SD5-72.0382.5190.7560.2190.0660.019
PHI4-80.5020.5320.2030.0500.0130.004
BUF5-70.0110.1060.0300.0070.0020.000
NYG6-614.61516.0245.6381.2570.3110.080
CAR4-8-0.0120.0030.0010.0000.000
OAK7-533.76138.5369.9382.3970.6050.145
SEA5-7-2.3240.6460.1410.0340.008
DEN7-562.05163.83316.4863.8600.9530.223
ARI5-7-1.1280.2970.0630.0150.004
WAS4-80.0090.0810.0180.0030.0010.000
MIN2-10------
CLE4-9------
TB4-8-0.0310.0050.0010.0000.000
JAC3-9------
KC5-72.1502.1560.2910.0380.0050.001
IND0-12------
STL2-10------
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)