Superbowl LI Projection, Week 6, Sunday

New England over Minnesota

Pittsburgh lost a game they should have won, and New England more than doubled Cincinnati's score in a win, and we have a new AFC and Superbowl favorite. It's slightly unfair because Minnesota has only played 5 games, and thus get their strength regressed a bit further toward .500 than New England does. But, the system is the system, and maybe Minnesota loses big next week, we just don't know for sure yet.

It might be too early in the season to consider this, but might we see the second 0-16 team ever? I give Cleveland a 0.75% chance of that happening, but that's up from 0.44% on Thursday. Sitting below every other team, they've got about a 20% chance of winning 2 games or less, and about a 45% chance of 3 wins or less. Their next 2 against Cincinnati and New York  are two of their 3 easiest remaining games, so if they get to 0-8, we'll start seeing their winless chances really increasing.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	5-1	0.618	61.68	91.81	76.97	44.60	25.94	14.08
MIN	5-0	0.616	86.73	94.55	84.18	48.39	26.85	14.79
BUF	4-2	0.611	36.68	76.39	57.03	31.83	18.07	9.68
PHI	3-2	0.606	23.41	53.42	36.70	19.77	10.60	5.73
DAL	5-1	0.600	58.34	84.88	67.35	36.92	19.58	10.47
DEN	4-2	0.570	43.77	66.34	49.49	25.99	13.02	6.42
SEA	4-1	0.565	67.52	76.18	54.04	26.86	13.11	6.55
PIT	4-2	0.561	68.15	76.65	54.69	28.35	14.00	6.78
ATL	4-2	0.550	72.34	76.46	47.00	22.20	10.47	5.07
ARI	2-3	0.548	20.12	34.60	20.41	9.58	4.53	2.18
SD	2-4	0.531	6.90	18.72	10.92	5.12	2.38	1.08
KC	3-2	0.516	27.35	46.64	29.07	13.46	5.99	2.63
BAL	3-3	0.505	26.95	38.27	21.80	9.86	4.33	1.86
GB	3-2	0.502	8.24	35.29	18.50	7.76	3.33	1.45
WAS	4-2	0.500	13.80	43.46	24.26	10.24	4.34	1.89
DET	3-3	0.494	4.74	23.12	11.72	4.84	2.05	0.88
TEN	3-3	0.484	24.54	33.57	18.06	7.62	3.16	1.29
NO	2-3	0.481	16.08	22.66	11.05	4.41	1.78	0.74
OAK	4-2	0.480	21.97	45.54	27.92	11.88	4.87	1.97
IND	2-4	0.477	8.80	13.17	6.45	2.64	1.08	0.43
CAR	1-5	0.475	2.01	3.30	1.46	0.57	0.23	0.09
NYG	3-3	0.466	4.45	16.44	7.89	3.06	1.21	0.49
MIA	2-4	0.465	1.14	6.59	3.21	1.29	0.53	0.21
HOU	4-2	0.455	52.10	58.62	31.94	12.65	4.85	1.85
JAC	2-3	0.448	14.55	17.84	8.31	3.20	1.22	0.46
LA	3-3	0.440	11.63	20.13	9.17	3.32	1.22	0.46
CIN	2-4	0.424	4.57	7.19	3.03	1.12	0.41	0.14
NYJ	1-4	0.418	0.51	2.26	0.98	0.35	0.13	0.04
TB	2-3	0.414	9.57	12.77	5.23	1.76	0.61	0.21
CHI	1-5	0.410	0.29	1.47	0.56	0.19	0.06	0.02
SF	1-5	0.404	0.72	1.26	0.47	0.15	0.05	0.02
CLE	0-6	0.391	0.33	0.39	0.14	0.05	0.02	0.01

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh