Superbowl LI Projection, Week 13, Thursday

Dallas over New England

By virtue of playing first in week 13, Dallas has retaken the lead position from New England. We'll see what happens with that after their game on Sunday. Philadelphia is officially eliminated from winning the NFC East. Dallas has not yet clinched a playoff spot, even though I show 100.00%. That's due to rounding. A true 100% will show a "+" instead. Out of a billion simulations, they missed the playoffs in less than 3400 of them, putting them over the five 9s mark (99.999%). I like to double check my clinched/not clinched status with other sites, especially because I don't simulate ties by default, and when I do the percentage chance is too low to cover all possible scenarios, and those sites tell me Dallas needs Tampa to lose or tie, or Washington to lose, in order to clinch a playoff spot. If that doesn't happen, but some other games go the right way, such as the Giants losing, Dallas could get even closer to clinching without being officially in the postseason.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DAL	11-1	0.693	96.14	100.00	98.55	64.64	40.74	23.90
NE	9-2	0.683	94.73	99.05	97.29	62.08	38.91	22.17
DEN	7-4	0.597	6.85	46.66	29.93	14.48	7.11	3.40
PIT	6-5	0.591	55.02	59.76	33.30	16.22	7.76	3.66
SEA	7-3-1	0.591	96.94	97.69	80.04	42.43	19.15	9.16
PHI	5-6	0.589	-	10.02	5.35	2.22	1.12	0.53
BUF	6-5	0.588	0.25	26.03	15.01	6.74	3.31	1.55
ATL	7-4	0.586	81.79	88.13	60.36	30.13	13.63	6.45
KC	8-3	0.583	37.22	82.92	62.54	31.51	14.47	6.71
MIN	6-6	0.561	15.18	31.77	16.45	6.73	3.07	1.38
OAK	9-2	0.556	55.90	92.06	75.88	36.39	15.51	6.78
NO	5-6	0.543	8.82	15.57	7.94	3.24	1.40	0.60
BAL	6-5	0.542	44.14	46.76	22.89	9.83	4.28	1.81
NYG	8-3	0.542	3.82	79.85	41.48	16.30	7.15	3.07
SD	5-6	0.537	0.02	3.28	1.65	0.64	0.29	0.12
ARI	4-6-1	0.537	3.00	6.54	3.21	1.26	0.55	0.23
WAS	6-4-1	0.530	0.04	54.16	25.77	9.38	4.13	1.73
TEN	6-6	0.522	25.53	27.16	12.47	5.04	2.07	0.84
DET	7-4	0.519	72.53	76.73	43.56	17.86	6.93	2.83
MIA	7-4	0.519	5.02	40.53	22.42	8.91	3.74	1.50
CAR	4-7	0.491	0.49	1.24	0.54	0.18	0.07	0.03
GB	5-6	0.473	12.28	15.03	6.58	2.22	0.81	0.29
TB	6-5	0.470	8.90	23.12	10.12	3.39	1.24	0.45
IND	5-6	0.445	20.89	21.18	7.95	2.62	0.89	0.30
CIN	3-7-1	0.429	0.84	0.84	0.30	0.10	0.03	0.01
HOU	6-5	0.402	53.55	53.73	18.34	5.42	1.62	0.48
NYJ	3-8	0.353	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	2-9	0.349	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
LA	4-7	0.343	0.06	0.15	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00
CHI	2-9	0.318	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	1-10	0.311	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-12	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas