New England took over the lead in strength, 0.68344 to 0.68251, so would be just barely favored against Dallas. Dallas lost just a little bit of their playoff odds, because the Giants keep winning and are still only 2 games back in the NFC East.
Denver, despite being the 4th best team, has a decent shot of missing the playoffs the year after a Superbowl win. They're just 47% likely to make the playoffs, and 7% to win the division, in third place and 2 games behind Oakland, and 1 behind Kansas City, who they lost to last night as time expired in overtime.
San Francisco is now officially eliminated, so I can stop trying to run enough simulations to get them to advance. The Jets are also eliminated from their division, which doesn't take any sort of tiebreakers to determine; they've got 8 losses and New England has 9 wins, so they can't be caught.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 9-2 | 0.683 | 94.73 | 99.05 | 97.30 | 62.10 | 38.92 | 22.41 |
| DAL | 10-1 | 0.683 | 92.48 | 99.84 | 96.71 | 61.52 | 38.02 | 21.88 |
| PHI | 5-5 | 0.616 | 0.19 | 25.50 | 14.32 | 6.61 | 3.49 | 1.76 |
| DEN | 7-4 | 0.597 | 6.86 | 46.72 | 29.97 | 14.50 | 7.12 | 3.45 |
| PIT | 6-5 | 0.591 | 55.66 | 60.25 | 33.56 | 16.34 | 7.82 | 3.73 |
| SEA | 7-3-1 | 0.591 | 97.05 | 97.62 | 79.12 | 41.65 | 19.16 | 9.17 |
| BUF | 6-5 | 0.588 | 0.25 | 26.07 | 15.04 | 6.75 | 3.31 | 1.57 |
| ATL | 7-4 | 0.586 | 81.67 | 86.62 | 58.49 | 29.18 | 13.44 | 6.36 |
| KC | 8-3 | 0.583 | 37.22 | 82.95 | 62.57 | 31.52 | 14.47 | 6.79 |
| MIN | 6-5 | 0.565 | 24.77 | 44.10 | 23.97 | 10.47 | 4.77 | 2.16 |
| OAK | 9-2 | 0.556 | 55.90 | 92.07 | 75.89 | 36.39 | 15.51 | 6.87 |
| NO | 5-6 | 0.543 | 8.81 | 14.06 | 7.09 | 2.96 | 1.29 | 0.55 |
| BAL | 6-5 | 0.542 | 43.53 | 46.08 | 22.53 | 9.67 | 4.21 | 1.81 |
| NYG | 8-3 | 0.542 | 7.08 | 76.41 | 40.72 | 16.43 | 7.24 | 3.11 |
| SD | 5-6 | 0.537 | 0.02 | 3.29 | 1.66 | 0.64 | 0.29 | 0.12 |
| ARI | 4-6-1 | 0.537 | 2.89 | 5.35 | 2.60 | 1.06 | 0.46 | 0.20 |
| WAS | 6-4-1 | 0.530 | 0.24 | 46.79 | 22.20 | 8.37 | 3.67 | 1.54 |
| TEN | 6-6 | 0.522 | 25.23 | 26.90 | 12.36 | 5.00 | 2.05 | 0.84 |
| DET | 7-4 | 0.519 | 70.58 | 76.13 | 42.96 | 17.73 | 7.00 | 2.86 |
| MIA | 7-4 | 0.519 | 5.02 | 40.55 | 22.44 | 8.92 | 3.74 | 1.52 |
| CAR | 4-7 | 0.491 | 0.49 | 1.06 | 0.46 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| TB | 6-5 | 0.470 | 9.03 | 20.81 | 9.06 | 3.13 | 1.15 | 0.42 |
| GB | 4-6 | 0.448 | 4.64 | 5.58 | 2.27 | 0.73 | 0.25 | 0.09 |
| IND | 5-6 | 0.444 | 20.63 | 20.92 | 7.85 | 2.59 | 0.87 | 0.30 |
| CIN | 3-7-1 | 0.429 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.29 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| HOU | 6-5 | 0.402 | 54.11 | 54.30 | 18.54 | 5.48 | 1.64 | 0.49 |
| NYJ | 3-8 | 0.353 | - | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| JAC | 2-9 | 0.349 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| LA | 4-7 | 0.343 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CHI | 2-9 | 0.318 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| SF | 1-10 | 0.311 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CLE | 0-12 | 0.237 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)
[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
No comments:
Post a Comment