2016-11-28

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 12, Sunday

New England over Dallas

New England took over the lead in strength, 0.68344 to 0.68251, so would be just barely favored against Dallas. Dallas lost just a little bit of their playoff odds, because the Giants keep winning and are still only 2 games back in the NFC East.

Denver, despite being the 4th best team, has a decent shot of missing the playoffs the year after a Superbowl win. They're just 47% likely to make the playoffs, and 7% to win the division, in third place and 2 games behind Oakland, and 1 behind Kansas City, who they lost to last night as time expired in overtime.

San Francisco is now officially eliminated, so I can stop trying to run enough simulations to get them to advance. The Jets are also eliminated from their division, which doesn't take any sort of tiebreakers to determine; they've got 8 losses and New England has 9 wins, so they can't be caught.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE9-20.68394.7399.0597.3062.1038.9222.41
DAL10-10.68392.4899.8496.7161.5238.0221.88
PHI5-50.6160.1925.5014.326.613.491.76
DEN7-40.5976.8646.7229.9714.507.123.45
PIT6-50.59155.6660.2533.5616.347.823.73
SEA7-3-10.59197.0597.6279.1241.6519.169.17
BUF6-50.5880.2526.0715.046.753.311.57
ATL7-40.58681.6786.6258.4929.1813.446.36
KC8-30.58337.2282.9562.5731.5214.476.79
MIN6-50.56524.7744.1023.9710.474.772.16
OAK9-20.55655.9092.0775.8936.3915.516.87
NO5-60.5438.8114.067.092.961.290.55
BAL6-50.54243.5346.0822.539.674.211.81
NYG8-30.5427.0876.4140.7216.437.243.11
SD5-60.5370.023.291.660.640.290.12
ARI4-6-10.5372.895.352.601.060.460.20
WAS6-4-10.5300.2446.7922.208.373.671.54
TEN6-60.52225.2326.9012.365.002.050.84
DET7-40.51970.5876.1342.9617.737.002.86
MIA7-40.5195.0240.5522.448.923.741.52
CAR4-70.4910.491.060.460.160.060.02
TB6-50.4709.0320.819.063.131.150.42
GB4-60.4484.645.582.270.730.250.09
IND5-60.44420.6320.927.852.590.870.30
CIN3-7-10.4290.810.810.290.090.030.01
HOU6-50.40254.1154.3018.545.481.640.49
NYJ3-80.353-0.000.000.000.000.00
JAC2-90.3490.030.030.010.000.000.00
LA4-70.3430.060.120.040.010.000.00
CHI2-90.3180.000.000.000.000.000.00
SF1-100.311------
CLE0-120.237------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England

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