Philadelphia didn't use their bye week to come out strong, and lost, along with Denver, leaving Minnesota the last remaining unbeaten team. I bet they didn't think they'd get to 5-11 when Teddy Bridgewater got hurt toward the end of the preseason. They might have even thought things got even worse when they traded for Sam Bradford. But here they are, atop the league. There's still plenty of time left, of course, and no one's even clinched a playoff spot. Speaking of that, while writing this I realized I neglected to track the milestones of percentage chances of making the playoffs. Typically I start tracking at 80%, then 90%, 99%, 99.9%, and so on as long as teams keep reaching more 9s without actually clinching. I've gone back and added those starting at the appropriate posts for each mark.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 5-0 | 0.616 | 82.06 | 94.40 | 83.13 | 47.90 | 26.85 | 15.09 |
| PHI | 3-1 | 0.605 | 44.71 | 68.97 | 51.13 | 28.17 | 15.18 | 8.36 |
| NE | 4-1 | 0.589 | 63.09 | 84.15 | 66.24 | 36.77 | 20.08 | 10.38 |
| PIT | 4-1 | 0.584 | 71.47 | 85.98 | 69.00 | 38.07 | 20.50 | 10.49 |
| DEN | 4-1 | 0.580 | 54.62 | 80.55 | 63.37 | 34.61 | 18.34 | 9.31 |
| DAL | 4-1 | 0.575 | 43.00 | 72.49 | 51.86 | 26.70 | 13.48 | 7.01 |
| BUF | 3-2 | 0.565 | 34.31 | 61.30 | 41.39 | 21.38 | 11.05 | 5.45 |
| SEA | 3-1 | 0.564 | 55.68 | 65.65 | 44.36 | 22.06 | 10.83 | 5.52 |
| ATL | 4-1 | 0.550 | 78.12 | 82.39 | 55.93 | 27.03 | 12.83 | 6.36 |
| ARI | 2-3 | 0.548 | 22.03 | 35.00 | 20.64 | 9.77 | 4.65 | 2.30 |
| GB | 3-1 | 0.530 | 14.59 | 53.89 | 31.31 | 14.19 | 6.56 | 3.12 |
| SD | 1-4 | 0.516 | 2.42 | 9.94 | 5.35 | 2.45 | 1.14 | 0.50 |
| BAL | 3-2 | 0.515 | 23.51 | 47.54 | 28.87 | 13.36 | 6.19 | 2.75 |
| OAK | 4-1 | 0.508 | 33.43 | 67.46 | 45.03 | 20.54 | 9.26 | 4.04 |
| DET | 2-3 | 0.489 | 2.81 | 15.77 | 7.76 | 3.19 | 1.34 | 0.58 |
| WAS | 3-2 | 0.486 | 8.95 | 26.68 | 14.13 | 5.86 | 2.44 | 1.05 |
| CAR | 1-3 | 0.485 | 8.98 | 15.51 | 7.53 | 3.06 | 1.27 | 0.55 |
| IND | 2-3 | 0.482 | 23.39 | 28.02 | 14.11 | 5.94 | 2.52 | 1.03 |
| KC | 2-2 | 0.481 | 9.53 | 25.24 | 13.76 | 5.86 | 2.50 | 1.03 |
| TEN | 2-3 | 0.478 | 23.30 | 28.24 | 14.08 | 5.89 | 2.48 | 1.01 |
| NO | 1-3 | 0.476 | 7.86 | 13.01 | 6.21 | 2.47 | 1.00 | 0.42 |
| CIN | 2-3 | 0.459 | 4.78 | 14.20 | 6.96 | 2.81 | 1.15 | 0.45 |
| NYG | 2-3 | 0.456 | 3.35 | 10.26 | 4.77 | 1.83 | 0.71 | 0.29 |
| JAC | 1-3 | 0.451 | 14.44 | 16.62 | 7.57 | 2.95 | 1.16 | 0.44 |
| SF | 1-4 | 0.448 | 2.80 | 4.36 | 1.86 | 0.68 | 0.26 | 0.10 |
| HOU | 3-2 | 0.447 | 38.87 | 43.62 | 21.21 | 8.22 | 3.20 | 1.21 |
| LA | 3-2 | 0.443 | 19.49 | 31.25 | 15.14 | 5.60 | 2.08 | 0.81 |
| MIA | 1-4 | 0.434 | 1.13 | 3.21 | 1.43 | 0.55 | 0.21 | 0.08 |
| TB | 1-3 | 0.420 | 5.03 | 7.59 | 3.14 | 1.09 | 0.38 | 0.14 |
| NYJ | 1-4 | 0.418 | 1.48 | 3.32 | 1.40 | 0.51 | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| CHI | 1-4 | 0.417 | 0.54 | 2.80 | 1.12 | 0.38 | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| CLE | 0-5 | 0.397 | 0.24 | 0.62 | 0.24 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
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