Kansas City beat Oakland on one of the best Thursday night matchups we've seen (by record), and now both teams are over 98% likely to make the playoffs, along with a 66% chance for Denver. Kansas City has a tiebreaker lead over Oakland, so despite their identical records, Kansas City has double the chances at winning the division. We'll see a very strong first wildcard team in the AFC, most likely one with a much better record than the 4th division winner they'll face in the opening round, currently likely to be the winner of the AFC South, which has 3 co-leaders at 6-6.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 10-2 | 0.714 | 99.21 | 99.65 | 99.09 | 64.37 | 40.80 | 23.80 |
| DAL | 11-1 | 0.692 | 98.65 | ++ | 99.24 | 65.27 | 38.16 | 21.14 |
| SEA | 8-3-1 | 0.662 | 98.69 | 99.35 | 92.20 | 56.24 | 29.39 | 15.28 |
| DEN | 8-4 | 0.620 | 6.38 | 65.54 | 39.08 | 17.99 | 8.87 | 4.26 |
| BAL | 7-5 | 0.615 | 51.32 | 57.11 | 31.35 | 15.07 | 7.15 | 3.40 |
| PIT | 7-5 | 0.612 | 48.13 | 58.90 | 32.09 | 15.46 | 7.21 | 3.40 |
| KC | 10-3 | 0.601 | 65.12 | 98.55 | 83.62 | 42.36 | 18.46 | 8.50 |
| ATL | 7-5 | 0.585 | 76.26 | 88.35 | 52.32 | 22.18 | 9.95 | 4.37 |
| OAK | 10-3 | 0.568 | 28.50 | 98.11 | 67.21 | 29.18 | 12.02 | 5.13 |
| MIN | 6-6 | 0.560 | 5.32 | 29.87 | 14.91 | 5.62 | 2.46 | 1.02 |
| BUF | 6-6 | 0.560 | 0.00 | 6.69 | 3.09 | 1.13 | 0.52 | 0.22 |
| ARI | 5-6-1 | 0.553 | 1.31 | 10.94 | 5.26 | 1.98 | 0.86 | 0.35 |
| DET | 8-4 | 0.551 | 84.22 | 90.19 | 53.93 | 21.41 | 8.75 | 3.56 |
| PHI | 5-7 | 0.550 | - | 2.32 | 1.12 | 0.41 | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| SD | 5-7 | 0.526 | - | 0.35 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| TEN | 6-6 | 0.522 | 24.47 | 25.58 | 11.24 | 4.16 | 1.58 | 0.61 |
| NO | 5-7 | 0.520 | 4.96 | 7.27 | 3.44 | 1.18 | 0.46 | 0.18 |
| NYG | 8-4 | 0.519 | 1.35 | 68.45 | 32.10 | 11.03 | 4.33 | 1.63 |
| WAS | 6-5-1 | 0.515 | - | 37.25 | 16.77 | 5.60 | 2.21 | 0.82 |
| IND | 6-6 | 0.500 | 41.35 | 41.59 | 17.27 | 6.00 | 2.14 | 0.78 |
| GB | 6-6 | 0.487 | 10.46 | 17.09 | 7.63 | 2.41 | 0.87 | 0.30 |
| TB | 7-5 | 0.484 | 18.68 | 48.73 | 21.01 | 6.66 | 2.39 | 0.82 |
| CIN | 4-7-1 | 0.469 | 0.55 | 0.57 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| MIA | 7-5 | 0.452 | 0.79 | 13.01 | 5.11 | 1.52 | 0.52 | 0.17 |
| CAR | 4-8 | 0.430 | 0.09 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| HOU | 6-6 | 0.383 | 34.18 | 34.34 | 10.50 | 2.63 | 0.68 | 0.18 |
| CHI | 3-9 | 0.351 | - | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| JAC | 2-10 | 0.326 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LA | 4-8 | 0.309 | - | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| NYJ | 3-9 | 0.299 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SF | 1-11 | 0.277 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CLE | 0-12 | 0.237 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)
First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)
[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Final] New England over Dallas
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