2016-12-26

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 16, Sunday

New England over Dallas

With  Christmas falling on a Sunday this year, the NFL had just 2 games on their normal day this week. Both had significant playoff implications, though, eliminating Baltimore and Denver, and locking in all 6 AFC playoff teams. Now it's just a matter of the seeding. New England is still the top team, and will remain so unless Dallas can win 78-0 or better tonight. Detroit can clinch a playoff spot with a win.

In the NFC, Tampa is still technically alive, though they'll need a ton of help. First, they need Detroit to lose tonight, and win next week against Green Bay. I haven't dug in too far, but it appears that's to lower the Strength of Victory for both Green Bay and Washington. For the same reason, they'll need San Francisco to beat Seattle, Dallas to beat Philadelphia, Tennessee to beat Houston, and Indianapolis to beat Jacksonville. The NFL has already announced that Week 17's late game will be Green Bay vs Detroit, but there are plenty of scenarios that will have both of those teams clinch the playoffs prior to kickoff. I suppose it's the only matchup between two alive-but-not-clinched teams remaining, so it's as good a game as any to feature for the final game of the season.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE13-20.814++++++77.5956.9038.96
DAL12-20.710++++++65.5837.1717.32
ATL10-50.694++++89.0553.0628.5512.79
KC11-40.64628.88++79.6036.1614.546.94
SEA9-5-10.637++++69.6332.5515.376.00
PIT10-50.639++++62.2831.8111.455.40
OAK12-30.58871.12++90.8840.3812.755.34
GB9-60.56753.3576.7339.1414.065.691.86
NYG10-50.542-++44.6015.275.821.78
DET9-50.53646.6582.4940.3013.875.161.56
MIA10-50.508-++38.398.353.091.06
WAS8-6-10.541-40.7817.275.612.240.68
HOU9-60.397++++28.845.721.260.32
TB8-70.468-0.010.000.000.000.00
BAL8-70.586------
BUF7-80.577------
PHI6-90.547------
DEN8-70.542------
ARI6-8-10.535------
NO7-80.534------
IND7-80.528------
SD5-100.495------
TEN8-70.492------
CIN5-9-10.484------
MIN7-80.481------
CAR6-90.440------
JAC3-120.343------
CHI3-120.306------
SF2-130.218------
LA4-110.214------
NYJ4-110.208------
CLE1-140.175------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 40% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: New England (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: Dallas (Week 16, Saturday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Saturday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 16, Saturday] New England over Dallas

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