2013-11-29

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 13, Thursday

Seattle over Denver

Dallas, Detroit, and Baltimore all won their home Thanksgiving games, as I picked in my pick 'em pool. I'd guess most people did as well, though, except those who see "Steelers" and think of the dominant teams of the past. Even so, with the AFC's current records, 5-7 Pittsburgh has an 8.6% shot of still getting a wildcard.

No team has yet lowered their odds of missing the playoffs to under 1 in 10,000, but both Kansas City and Denver are close. whoever wins Sunday will be pushed near or past that mark.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA10-10.73094.67099.81498.00057.59131.77918.895
CAR8-30.73039.51896.23478.41244.90424.43614.528
NO9-20.70060.48298.54385.36345.88822.88812.813
KC9-20.68938.80799.93178.00744.72825.75412.481
SF7-40.6854.96671.64147.37621.99810.5475.715
DEN9-20.68361.19099.90385.35848.93127.83113.306
CIN7-40.64186.62992.53565.65834.17816.7697.237
NE8-30.61297.77899.04281.62440.83318.4147.405
DET7-50.57176.74478.07731.12410.7703.9481.667
ARI7-40.5670.35821.40811.2243.8051.3670.571
DAL7-50.54675.54477.00328.0699.0523.1411.251
BAL6-60.53311.28736.19215.6165.8292.2700.744
PHI6-50.53124.41130.15311.5133.5501.1710.449
STL5-60.5220.0051.2450.5800.1700.0540.020
SD5-60.5180.0038.9303.8481.3690.5090.160
TEN5-60.5106.95424.89910.1403.5261.2900.398
IND7-40.50693.03594.47943.89715.9705.6731.731
CHI6-50.49017.83320.0136.5741.8040.5330.185
GB5-6-10.4795.4225.7981.7480.4650.1350.046
PIT5-70.4691.9728.5943.0800.9490.3190.088
MIA5-60.4651.79626.67410.2473.1011.0140.276
BUF4-70.4260.3013.8491.2720.3350.1000.024
TB3-80.399-0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
OAK4-80.372-0.3930.1110.0270.0070.001
MIN2-8-10.3710.0010.0010.0000.0000.0000.000
CLE4-70.3690.1111.8670.5300.1170.0290.006
NYG4-70.3660.0410.0660.0170.0030.0010.000
WAS3-80.3570.0030.0030.0010.0000.0000.000
ATL2-90.351------
HOU2-90.3250.0060.0080.0020.0000.0000.000
NYJ5-60.3030.1252.6970.6100.1080.0210.003
JAC2-90.2090.0040.0060.0010.0000.0000.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]

2013-11-28

eBay Wins #91

My two cents was worth 2 Nelson Cruz minor league cards, so here's the front and the back, in one scan.

2002 Just Prospects #10 Nelson Cruz
I bought these two cards while he was serving his suspension, which may explain the lack of other bids. We'll see how Nelson does next year, (ostensibly) cleaned up from PEDs.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought2488
Total Spent$43.73
Per Card1.758 cents

2013-11-26

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 12, Final

Seattle over Denver

I was so conflicted last night. On one hand, I can't root for division rival San Francisco, especially with the Rams currently in 4th. It's literally impossible to win a wildcard spot finishing in 4th. However, the Rams get Washington's first round pick next year, so I want them to do as poorly as possible. It seems unlikely we'll contend for the division - it would take a 5-0 finish and an 0-5 finish from Seattle - so I think I'm happy with the result.

Also, despite all my scenario-generating, Atlanta is finally eliminated. New Orleans and Carolina already have more than Atlanta's maximum 7 wins, and San Francisco and Arizona, both with 7, will play each other one more time, so at least one of them will have at least 8 wins (or 7 wins and a tie). Combined with Seattle's 10 wins, that means at least 2 NFC West and 2 NFC South teams - and therefore at least 2 non-division winners - will finish ahead of Atlanta, eliminating them.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA10-10.73094.66999.82298.19957.85431.92718.982
CAR8-30.73039.53896.37579.67145.85224.94214.824
NO9-20.70060.46298.70386.23846.57923.22312.996
KC9-20.68938.82399.92878.08744.81325.81212.490
SF7-40.6854.96772.99149.97823.21411.1216.024
DEN9-20.68361.17499.89785.38649.01127.88613.307
CIN7-40.64186.79392.67966.01834.38516.8717.267
NE8-30.61297.80499.14582.00841.07118.5237.435
ARI7-40.5670.35821.86412.0104.0691.4610.610
GB5-5-10.53627.52428.1789.9863.1271.0520.409
DAL6-50.53464.60665.86023.2087.2322.4320.940
PHI6-50.53135.23939.46014.6144.5141.4920.572
BAL5-60.5287.24523.4469.9843.6761.4200.459
STL5-60.5220.0051.3400.6640.1960.0630.023
SD5-60.5180.0038.6383.7331.3280.4940.156
DET6-50.51746.34147.90716.6034.9401.5720.582
TEN5-60.5106.95726.29810.7483.7301.3660.421
IND7-40.50693.03394.46244.03516.0215.6931.734
CHI6-50.49026.13427.3138.7872.4160.7150.247
PIT5-60.4735.83418.7656.7682.1460.7240.201
MIA5-60.4651.77427.70310.6453.2201.0530.286
BUF4-70.4260.2993.3671.1120.2920.0870.021
TB3-80.399-0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
OAK4-70.384-1.1280.3360.0830.0210.004
MIN2-8-10.3710.0010.0010.0000.0000.0000.000
CLE4-70.3690.1281.9120.5430.1200.0300.006
NYG4-70.3660.1410.1720.0390.0070.0010.000
WAS3-80.3570.0150.0150.0030.0010.0000.000
ATL2-90.351------
HOU2-90.3250.0060.0080.0020.0000.0000.000
NYJ5-60.3030.1222.6180.5940.1050.0210.003
JAC2-90.2090.0040.0060.0010.0000.0000.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]

2013-11-25

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 12, Sunday

Seattle over Denver

Denver has taken over the AFC favorite position from Kansas City, in a week where both teams lost. Kansas City's loss was a little bigger, and so dragged them down in strength. Denver has a bit easier schedule remaining, and most importantly, currently holds the tiebreaker over Kansas City. Obviously that advantage could be evened back out next weekend, in Denver and Kansas City's rematch.

I'm still showing no chances of Atlanta making the playoffs, and it's still technically possible. I won't go through the exact scenario this time, but when I simulated a few thousand times that Atlanta would go 7-9 and all remaining AFC-NFC games would go the way of the AFC team, they did manage to make the playoffs a few times. It just didn't happen in my 500 million simulations today. Oakland is in fact eliminated from the AFC West, because Denver and/or Kansas City will be uncatchable by the 7-loss Raiders after this weekend.

It's looking like the NFC is going to be tougher than the AFC this year. For a point of comparison, one of my good friends is a Steelers fan, and his team shows an 18.8% chance of making the playoffs at 5-6, whereas my Rams have a 1.87% chance, also at 5-6. Tiebreaker advantages may account for some of that difference, but overall it's because it's just not going to take as good of a record to be the AFC wildcard team as it will in the NFC.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA10-10.73096.64299.86798.80560.30933.46819.897
CAR8-30.73039.53297.25480.31746.55725.72315.289
NO9-20.70060.46898.96186.43147.52723.98013.420
KC9-20.68938.23799.92077.87744.66625.72612.540
DEN9-20.68361.75999.89785.57249.14427.96313.445
SF6-40.6432.94959.46937.91715.7846.8413.391
CIN7-40.64186.79792.68166.03134.38616.8737.329
NE8-30.61297.80799.14682.02841.08318.5307.506
ARI7-40.5670.40329.07815.9505.3881.9350.809
GB5-5-10.53627.52628.71210.8483.3971.1540.448
DAL6-50.53463.54565.55724.2297.5512.5730.995
PHI6-50.53136.19542.01416.5465.1061.7030.653
BAL5-60.5287.24323.4469.9933.6801.4220.464
STL5-60.5220.0071.8720.9280.2730.0870.033
SD5-60.5180.0048.6403.7341.3280.4940.157
DET6-50.51746.34448.74118.1685.4041.7320.641
TEN5-60.5106.95626.31110.7513.7321.3670.426
IND7-40.50693.03494.45044.01816.0115.6901.752
CHI6-50.49026.12928.1249.7702.6870.8010.277
PIT5-60.4735.83218.7716.7722.1490.7250.204
MIA5-60.4651.77327.70110.6403.2201.0520.289
BUF4-70.4260.2983.3681.1120.2930.0870.021
TB3-80.399-0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
WAS3-70.3940.1300.1700.0450.0090.0020.001
OAK4-70.384-1.1260.3340.0820.0210.004
MIN2-8-10.3710.0010.0010.0000.0000.0000.000
CLE4-70.3690.1281.9120.5430.1200.0300.006
NYG4-70.3660.1290.1790.0440.0080.0020.000
ATL2-90.351------
HOU2-90.3250.0060.0080.0020.0000.0000.000
NYJ5-60.3030.1222.6180.5930.1050.0210.003
JAC2-90.2090.0040.0060.0010.0000.0000.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]

2013-11-24

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

Florida State and Alabama remained 1-2 this week, while Auburn slid from #3 to #7 in their bye.

Ohio State thus gained the spot vacated by Auburn, and Clemson was passed by Northern Illinois and Missouri on their wins and Clemson's non-FBS win. I'd say Missouri still has a shadow of a chance of being my #1 team, but it would take beating Texas A&M, Alabama, and then making and winning the BCS Championship game

The big surprise losses of the week were Baylor and Oregon, though I had Baylor-OK State closer than the BCS rankings did. Baylor lost 7 spots, and Oregon lost 9.

1Florida State11-0
2Alabama11-0
3Ohio State11-0
4Northern Illinois11-0
5Missouri10-1
6Clemson10-1
7Auburn10-1
8Oklahoma State10-1
9Arizona State9-2
10Michigan State10-1
11Fresno State10-0
12South Carolina9-2
13Stanford9-2
14Baylor9-1
15USC9-3
16Wisconsin9-2
17Louisville10-1
18Oregon9-2
19Duke9-2
20Oklahoma9-2
21UCF9-1
22Texas A&M8-3
23LSU8-3
24Notre Dame8-3
25East Carolina9-2
26Ball State9-2
27UCLA8-3
28Nebraska8-3
29Minnesota8-3
30Miami (FL)8-3
31Virginia Tech7-4
32Cincinnati9-2
33Georgia7-4
34Ole Miss7-4
35Arizona7-4
36Louisiana-Lafayette8-2
37Toledo7-4
38Washington7-4
39Brigham Young7-4
40Georgia Tech7-4
41Michigan7-4
42Iowa7-4
43Boston College7-4
44Rice8-3
45Houston7-4
46Texas7-3
47Buffalo8-3
48Bowling Green8-3
49Marshall8-3
50Texas Tech7-4
51Navy7-4
52Boise State7-4
53Vanderbilt7-4
54North Carolina6-5
55Washington State6-5
56San Diego State7-4
57Pittsburgh6-5
58Tulane7-4
59North Texas7-4
60Kansas State6-5
61Arkansas State7-4
62Oregon State6-5
63Middle Tennessee7-4
64Utah State7-4
65Western Kentucky7-4
66Penn State6-5
67UTSA6-5
68Mississippi State5-6
69Maryland6-5
70UNLV6-5
71Ohio6-5
72Syracuse5-6
73Texas State6-5
74Rutgers5-5
75Colorado State6-6
76Utah4-7
77San Jose State5-6
78Colorado4-7
79Florida Atlantic5-6
80Indiana4-7
81Southern Methodist5-5
82Tennessee4-7
83Northwestern4-7
84Central Michigan5-6
85Louisiana-Monroe5-6
86Florida4-7
87Troy5-6
88TCU4-7
89Illinois4-7
90West Virginia4-7
91Wake Forest4-7
92South Alabama4-6
93Akron4-7
94Wyoming5-6
95Nevada4-7
96Memphis3-7
97Kent State4-8
98Arkansas3-8
99North Carolina State3-8
100Kansas3-8
101Tulsa3-8
102Virginia2-9
103Louisiana Tech4-7
104Army3-7
105South Florida2-8
106Kentucky2-9
107Iowa State2-9
108New Mexico3-8
109UAB2-9
110Eastern Michigan2-9
111Purdue1-10
112California1-11
113Air Force2-9
114Idaho1-10
115Connecticut1-9
116UTEP2-9
117New Mexico State1-10
118Temple1-10
119Massachusetts1-10
120Florida International1-10
121Western Michigan1-10
122Hawaii0-11
123Southern Miss0-11
124Miami (OH)0-11


2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12

2013-11-22

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 12, Thursday

Seattle over Kansas City

With a win over Atlanta, New Orleans is now the 2nd likeliest NFC Superbowl representative, displacing Carolina at least until they play Sunday. Atlanta would appear to be out of the playoff hunt, but I'm pretty sure they are not. I ran 250 Million season simulations, and they didn't make the playoffs in any of them. However, with 93 games left to play, there are way more than 250 Million possible outcomes.

When I want to double check whether a team is truly eliminated or has some chance of making the playoffs, I have two options. One is to figure out their best-case scenarios by hand, if they are few. However, at this point in the season, there are way too many games to determine by hand exactly what's best in all games for a given team. For example, should Atlanta root for 4-6 St. Louis or 6-4 Chicago this week? It's a little hard to say, so I go with plan B.  I make up a fake set of games and simulate those a few thousand times, which takes under a second. First I have Atlanta win all of their remaining games. Then, I have that team's conference-mates lose all of their remaining games against the other conference. This serves to weaken the pool of wildcard teams. It is possible I would ruin a multi-team tiebreak scenario by forcing these losses (i.e. if an Atlanta vs Tampa Bay tie favors Tampa Bay, but an Atlanta, Tampa Bay, San Francisco tie favors Atlanta), but I'm just looking for one case where they do make the playoffs. In this case, pushing Atlanta to 7-9 and giving the AFC all remaining cross-conference games did give them about an 0.003% chance of making the playoffs. So while I won't say they're out yet, it's not looking good.

If no playoff appearances were shown, I could extend my system. At 7-9, Atlanta's not catching Seattle or New Orleans, the two NFC teams with 8 or more wins. So, without harming Atlanta, I can simulate them winning the rest of their NFC games. That pushes Minnesota and Tampa to 10 losses each, behind Atlanta. I can then simulate those two teams winning the rest of their NFC games to go 6-10 each. In this case, that pushes Atlanta to a 0.84% chance of getting a wildcard spot.

From here, it becomes more art than science. I've now given the Rams 9 losses, since they play New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and Seattle in the last 3 weeks of the season. Atlanta beat the Rams, so I can probably let them go 7-9. A 3-way or 4-way tiebreaker could make this unsafe though, so I have to be prepared to roll back this scenario and try others. In this case it worked, boosting Atlanta to a 4.88% chance of the wildcard.

I've already handed the NFC West and NFC South to Seattle and New Orleans, but the other two division winners won't be in direct competition with Atlanta either. Seeing Dallas at 5-6 with 5 games to go, I'll give them 5 wins to put them at 10-6, and more importantly, many losses to their conference opponents. That puts Atlanta at 6.38%, and Washington at 3-10, and lets me safely push them to 6-10. That has the effect of pushing Atlanta all the way to 26.3%, and New York to 4-11. I tried having them win their remaining game against Detroit, but that actually lowered Atlanta's chances. The reason for that is that the NFC North race is very close, and Detroit needs to win it in the situation I've created so far. By having them win the North at 9-7, Green Bay acquires its 10th loss and can beat Chicago, pushing them to 6-9. Since I now show Chicago with no playoff chances, I allow them to go 7-9 and beat Philadelphia. Philadelphia is now showing no playoff chances at 6-9, so I allow them to go 7-9 and beat Arizona. Atlanta has clinched a spot, and I've chosen a winner every NFC game. It may not be quite that hard for them to make it, but I'll bet it's close. Ultimately that scenario has 5 7-9 teams in the NFC, and Carolina and Atlanta get the Wildcard spots.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA10-10.73097.00099.92598.73060.99434.43420.266
CAR7-30.71734.17294.57675.42442.21922.72313.016
KC9-10.70444.16799.97678.97046.82327.85014.225
NO9-20.70065.82899.16687.83849.78125.32514.021
DEN9-10.68355.83299.95782.18446.18426.04712.655
SF6-40.6432.87363.78840.03516.7337.4113.630
CIN7-40.64190.48494.57668.11435.82717.2047.566
NE7-30.61093.66397.07267.17232.51314.4175.887
IND7-30.56398.09198.55664.16827.14110.7243.896
GB5-50.53621.03623.5769.5183.0201.0360.396
PHI6-50.53144.95949.96119.5076.1292.0870.788
DAL5-50.52852.62054.44819.7596.1682.1190.795
CHI6-40.52629.59338.44616.2425.0191.6620.620
DET6-40.52249.37058.09325.0177.7342.5250.933
SD4-60.5130.0003.5551.4640.4920.1800.058
ARI6-40.5040.12614.5696.9581.9900.6250.221
TEN4-60.5021.86915.7926.3222.0220.7240.224
BAL4-60.4914.63914.8835.7281.8620.6490.195
STL4-60.4790.0020.7420.3290.0860.0250.008
MIA5-50.4744.45336.18614.2204.3001.4200.407
PIT4-60.4413.17710.8253.5300.9840.3020.079
BUF4-70.4260.7684.2041.3220.3400.1000.025
CLE4-60.4021.7009.1922.8170.6900.1880.044
WAS3-70.3940.2010.2400.0620.0130.0030.001
TB2-80.393-0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
OAK4-60.3930.0004.3431.2970.3010.0790.018
NYG4-60.3722.2202.4680.5810.1120.0250.006
MIN2-80.3720.0020.0020.0000.0000.0000.000
ATL2-90.351------
HOU2-80.3460.0390.1190.0280.0060.0010.000
NYJ5-50.3381.11610.7622.6610.5140.1140.021
JAC1-90.2260.0010.0010.0000.0000.0000.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]

2013-11-21

A Trevor Rosenthal Autographed Baseball

Last Saturday, Trevor Rosenthal made an appearance at a local car dealership, and so did I.

I showed up 90 minutes early on advice of an employee of the dealership, and wound up about 15th in line. Based on the eventual length of the line, I could have perhaps pushed it until about 15 minutes early and still made it, but he was only signing for an hour and I didn't want to miss my shot like I did with David Eckstein. On the plus side, I got my autograph after about 5 minutes, gave Fredbird a high five, and went about my day.

Trevor Rosenthal
                        26
This makes 2 Cardinals closers of whom I now have autograph balls. Hopefully one day I can add a Dennis Eckersley, and then a Bruce Sutter for good measure.

2013-11-19

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 11, Final

Seattle over Kansas City

Carolina's record is finally catching up to their strength, and they're getting closer to challenging Seattle for the NFC favorite. 2 important games for them will be the 2 against New Orleans to try to secure a division championship, and they'll have to finish with a better record than Seattle if they want home field advantage, since they lost to them 12-7 in Week 1.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA10-10.73097.09899.92998.78561.24835.09120.655
CAR7-30.71741.70994.84677.50844.86124.25213.892
KC9-10.70544.16999.97678.96846.82727.85214.348
NO8-20.68658.29197.82983.62245.59922.47812.063
DEN9-10.68355.83099.95782.18346.18226.04512.768
SF6-40.6432.77963.72039.89516.7837.5493.695
CIN7-40.64190.49194.57868.12235.83117.2097.647
NE7-30.61093.67497.08067.17232.51114.4175.949
IND7-30.56398.09298.55764.17327.14110.7203.938
GB5-50.53620.89123.4989.5953.0951.0730.411
PHI6-50.53144.96250.21020.0556.4142.2040.832
DAL5-50.52852.62554.49220.2396.4272.2270.836
CHI6-40.52629.63438.73116.5615.2081.7460.651
DET6-40.52249.47358.41225.6748.1042.6710.985
SD4-60.5130.0013.5511.4630.4920.1800.058
ARI6-40.5040.12114.8057.0472.0370.6510.230
TEN4-60.5021.86815.7786.3152.0200.7240.226
BAL4-60.4914.63714.8895.7311.8620.6480.197
STL4-60.4790.0020.8140.3600.0950.0290.009
MIA5-50.4744.45336.27814.2504.3081.4210.413
PIT4-60.4413.17210.8173.5260.9830.3030.080
BUF4-70.4260.7584.1401.3010.3340.0990.025
CLE4-60.4021.6999.1842.8140.6900.1880.044
WAS3-70.3940.1960.2350.0620.0130.0030.001
TB2-80.393-0.0010.0000.0000.0000.000
OAK4-60.3930.0004.3341.2940.3000.0790.018
NYG4-60.3722.2172.4740.5960.1170.0260.006
MIN2-80.3720.0020.0020.0010.0000.0000.000
ATL2-80.363-0.0010.0000.0000.0000.000
HOU2-80.3460.0390.1190.0290.0060.0010.000
NYJ5-50.3381.11510.7622.6590.5130.1140.021
JAC1-90.2260.0010.0010.0000.0000.0000.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]

2013-11-18

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 11, Sunday

Seattle over Kansas City

Denver managed to beat KC, and is actually now favored to win the AFC West. However, Kansas City's slightly higher strength has them positioned as slightly likelier to represent the AFC in the Superbowl. The rematch in Kansas City in 2 weeks could make the division race tip far in Denver's favor, or put it back to tossup status.

If you care about such things, you may notice I don't have Atlanta or Tampa Bay with any chance of winning their division. That's because they are officially eliminated. This is easy enough to see by trying to construct a scenario in which either team would win. First, New Orleans would need to finish 0-6 to go 8-8. However, two of those games would be against Carolina, pushing them to at least 8-3. They'd have to go 0-5 in the other games to also go 8-8. From there, it's all about the tiebreakers. All NFC South teams would be 1-1 against each other except Carolina having swept New Orleans. In a 3 way tie involving Carolina, New Orleans, and either Tampa Bay or Atlanta, Carolina's Head-to-head record would be 3-1, with New Orleans at 1-3, and Atlanta/Tampa Bay at 2-2, thus handing Carolina the division. The same logic applies to a 4-way tie, where Carolina would be 4-2 head-to-head, New Orleans would be 2-4, and both Tampa Bay and Atlanta would be 3-3. But, either team is still alive in the Wildcard race. Also, Jacksonville isn't ruled out of winning it all, since they have some small positive chance of making the Superbowl. It just didn't happen in 100,000,000 simulations.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA10-10.73097.09399.93998.79561.74535.91121.112
CAR6-30.70635.36589.16870.54539.59920.99411.756
KC9-10.70544.26099.97578.87646.69327.68314.393
NO8-20.68664.63597.94285.45348.05123.82612.769
DEN9-10.68355.74099.95682.00545.97725.84512.796
SF6-40.6432.78464.59840.38417.1127.8383.833
CIN7-40.64190.53594.53065.38933.90816.3297.337
NE7-20.61695.57598.13873.94636.45016.3176.909
IND7-30.56398.09198.54961.32725.73610.1803.783
GB5-50.53620.89023.9689.9913.2661.1460.437
PHI6-50.53144.95850.79120.9676.8252.3690.890
DAL5-50.52852.62754.78921.0856.8002.3730.888
CHI6-40.52629.63639.72117.3375.5411.8840.701
DET6-40.52249.47259.12026.6088.5562.8561.052
SD4-60.5130.0003.5011.4320.4850.1750.057
ARI6-40.5040.12116.3827.7732.2670.7420.261
TEN4-60.5021.86915.5896.1641.9820.7060.224
BAL4-60.4914.60314.6525.5241.7900.6210.191
STL4-60.4790.0020.8470.3730.0990.0310.010
MIA5-50.4743.17136.23813.9714.2141.3850.408
PIT4-60.4413.17410.8043.4800.9700.2960.079
BUF4-70.4260.4883.9231.2390.3180.0930.024
CLE4-60.4021.6898.9822.6980.6610.1790.043
WAS3-70.3940.1960.2370.0650.0140.0030.001
TB2-80.393-0.0010.0000.0000.0000.000
OAK4-60.3930.0004.2901.2700.2970.0780.018
NYG4-60.3722.2192.4930.6240.1240.0280.007
MIN2-80.3720.0020.0020.0010.0000.0000.000
ATL2-80.363-0.0010.0000.0000.0000.000
HOU2-80.3460.0390.1160.0270.0050.0010.000
NYJ5-50.3380.76610.7562.6510.5130.1130.022
JAC1-90.2260.0010.0010.0000.0000.000-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]

2013-11-17

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 12

This week, the top 4 teams in action won, so the top of the rankings stayed relatively stable. Idle Mizzou did drop from #3 to #8, and probably out of #1 contention barring some unexpected late-season losses.

Assuming Alabama can beat Chattanooga next week, Alabama-Auburn is shaping up to be the SEC West title game, if I understand my tiebreakers correctly. An Alabama win would make them 12-0 and the top team outright, whereas an Auburn win would tie them at 11-1 with Alabama, and the game would also be the Head-to-Head tiebreaker. Whichever way the game games, the winner should get a huge computer ranking boost from the BCS and my rankings, and another boost by defeating the SEC East champ as expected.

1Florida State10-0
2Alabama10-0
3Auburn10-1
4Ohio State10-0
5Clemson9-1
6Northern Illinois10-0
7Baylor9-0
8Missouri9-1
9Oregon9-1
10Michigan State9-1
11Oklahoma State9-1
12Arizona State8-2
13Stanford8-2
14Fresno State9-0
15Texas A&M8-2
16Louisville9-1
17South Carolina8-2
18Ball State9-2
19UCLA8-2
20USC8-3
21Duke8-2
22Wisconsin8-2
23Oklahoma8-2
24Minnesota8-2
25UCF8-1
26Virginia Tech7-4
27Ole Miss7-3
28East Carolina8-2
29Louisiana-Lafayette8-2
30Brigham Young7-3
31LSU7-3
32Notre Dame7-3
33Toledo7-3
34Michigan7-3
35Houston7-3
36Nebraska7-3
37Texas7-3
38Miami (FL)7-3
39Georgia6-4
40Boise State7-3
41Texas Tech7-4
42Cincinnati8-2
43North Texas7-3
44Buffalo7-3
44Rice7-3
46Georgia Tech6-4
47Washington6-4
48Kansas State6-4
49Oregon State6-4
50Arizona6-4
51Iowa6-4
52Boston College6-4
53Bowling Green7-3
54Marshall7-3
55Penn State6-4
56Maryland6-4
57Vanderbilt6-4
58Navy6-4
59Arkansas State6-4
60Tulane6-4
61Washington State5-5
62San Diego State6-4
63Middle Tennessee6-4
64Ohio6-4
65Pittsburgh5-5
66North Carolina5-5
67Utah State6-4
68Syracuse5-5
69Western Kentucky6-4
70Texas State6-4
71Rutgers5-4
72Mississippi State4-6
73Colorado State6-5
74Utah4-6
75San Jose State5-5
76Louisiana-Monroe5-5
77UTSA5-5
78Colorado4-6
79UNLV5-5
80Tennessee4-6
81Indiana4-6
82Florida4-6
83Northwestern4-6
84Troy5-6
85West Virginia4-7
86TCU4-7
87Wake Forest4-6
88Florida Atlantic4-6
89Southern Methodist4-5
90Central Michigan4-6
91Akron4-7
92Nevada4-7
93Arkansas3-7
94Memphis3-6
95Illinois3-7
96Kansas3-7
97Wyoming4-6
98North Carolina State3-7
99South Alabama3-6
100Louisiana Tech4-6
101Virginia2-8
102Kent State3-8
103South Florida2-7
104Kentucky2-8
105Army3-7
106New Mexico3-7
107Eastern Michigan2-8
108Tulsa2-8
109UAB2-8
110Purdue1-9
111Iowa State1-9
112California1-10
113Air Force2-8
114Idaho1-9
115Temple1-9
116UTEP2-8
117New Mexico State1-9
118Massachusetts1-9
119Florida International1-9
120Connecticut0-9
121Western Michigan1-10
122Hawaii0-10
123Southern Miss0-10
124Miami (OH)0-10


2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11

2013-11-16

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Kansas City over Seattle

Tennessee and Indianapolis were both coming off embarrassing home losses to bad teams (Jacksonville and St. Louis), but Indianapolis seemed to want it more and took down Tennessee.  At 7-3 they're almost a lock to win the AFC South with 97.9%.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC9-00.71470.40799.97889.75256.63735.14719.342
CAR6-30.70643.40187.63069.58240.78622.51012.694
SEA9-10.70291.49099.64895.80156.53131.49317.606
NO7-20.67656.59891.45275.42641.60021.15511.190
DEN8-10.66429.58299.40771.64137.46020.45610.096
SF6-30.6468.38375.40348.51122.43110.7165.321
NE7-20.61694.53797.54676.12139.26517.5827.774
CIN6-40.60473.98083.07352.20224.76711.0224.736
IND7-30.56397.90498.32464.64328.25711.1944.362
GB5-40.56029.78338.50518.8447.0042.7431.123
DET6-30.54159.44571.43838.10013.7435.0521.975
DAL5-50.52861.84562.81324.2088.3733.0471.156
SD4-50.5200.01112.3665.4031.8110.6990.245
CHI5-40.52010.76720.3519.0042.9881.0620.395
PHI5-50.51534.29937.92314.8584.9431.7290.635
TEN4-60.5021.92014.4066.0211.9060.7030.235
BAL4-50.49811.97224.2259.8783.3271.1970.395
STL4-60.4790.0060.8380.3490.1020.0330.011
ARI5-40.4760.1219.9454.2621.2510.3990.132
MIA4-50.4661.95218.9287.4802.1880.7320.223
CLE4-50.44311.95522.2737.9372.3300.7240.206
PIT3-60.4192.0934.3071.3230.3460.1030.027
WAS3-60.4102.6122.7180.7460.1840.0490.014
MIN2-70.4030.0050.0100.0030.0010.0000.000
OAK3-60.3830.0002.0430.6180.1360.0360.009
BUF3-70.3820.1931.1110.3200.0710.0190.005
ATL2-70.3810.0010.0280.0090.0020.0010.000
NYJ5-40.3773.31821.4396.5091.4700.3780.088
TB1-80.3610.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
HOU2-70.3550.1700.5650.1510.0310.0080.002
NYG3-60.3521.2441.2990.2960.0600.0130.003
JAC1-80.2510.0060.0110.0020.0000.0000.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]

2013-11-14

eBay Wins #90

A lot of the penny cards I pick up on eBay are late 80s to early 90s commons, so here's a refreshing sight:

2010 Bowman - 1992 Bowman Throwback
#BT1 Jimmy Rollins
#BT14 Troy Tulowitzki
#BT20 Michael Young
#BT50 Victor Martinez
#BT64 David Wright
#BT89 Tim Lincecum
#BT101 Ivan Rodriguez
#BT107 John Smoltz
2010 reprints of early 90s commons!

The last 2 cards are actual reprints from the 1992 Bowman set, with 1991 statistics on the back and everything. The photos are amazingly fuzzy compared to the other 6 cards with modern photos of modern players.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought2486
Total Spent$43.71
Per Card1.758 cents

2013-11-12

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 10, Final

Kansas City over Seattle

The Monday Night Football matchup wasn't quite the intrastate showdown the NFL probably hoped for, but hey, even the Rams got a Monday game this year. And Tampa Bay managed to win a game, and now show at least 1 chance in my 500 million simulations of winning the Superbowl.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC9-00.71470.56299.97490.00056.84435.29219.419
CAR6-30.70643.40487.62469.58040.78322.50812.693
SEA9-10.70291.49099.65595.83156.54131.49917.609
NO7-20.67556.59591.45375.42541.60221.15311.190
DEN8-10.66429.42799.31172.01537.69620.58010.157
SF6-30.6468.38375.48748.56722.45410.7255.327
NE7-20.61694.53497.39978.35840.65818.1898.040
CIN6-40.60474.04782.51653.00225.24611.2034.816
GB5-40.56029.78138.49818.8296.9972.7411.123
IND6-30.55884.42088.91754.73023.4529.2483.564
DET6-30.54159.44271.41138.05313.7285.0461.973
DAL5-50.52861.84162.81024.2078.3703.0461.155
SD4-50.5200.01111.5775.1431.7150.6620.232
CHI5-40.52010.77220.3058.9822.9811.0590.394
PHI5-50.51534.30137.92714.8624.9461.7310.636
TEN4-50.50915.25829.90313.2024.5871.6690.566
BAL4-50.49811.94423.2179.7373.3101.1860.391
STL4-60.4790.0060.8340.3470.1010.0330.011
ARI5-40.4760.1219.9394.2611.2500.3980.132
MIA4-50.4661.95318.2487.3902.1690.7250.220
CLE4-50.44311.92221.4627.9042.3450.7240.206
PIT3-60.4192.0864.0281.2490.3290.0980.026
WAS3-60.4102.6122.7180.7460.1840.0490.013
MIN2-70.4040.0050.0100.0030.0010.0000.000
OAK3-60.3830.0001.8880.5800.1270.0340.008
BUF3-70.3820.1930.9590.2780.0620.0170.004
ATL2-70.3810.0010.0290.0090.0020.0010.000
NYJ5-40.3773.32019.9406.2431.4230.3640.085
TB1-80.3610.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
HOU2-70.3550.3110.6440.1670.0350.0090.002
NYG3-60.3521.2461.3010.2970.0600.0130.003
JAC1-80.2510.0110.0150.0020.0000.0000.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]