2018-12-31

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 17, Final

New Orleans over Kansas City

With the regular season over, the playoff field is set. Interestingly, the top 3 favorites to win are all in the NFC, thanks to some very high strengths. In the AFC, Kansas City is just barely ahead of New England in terms of chances to make it to the Superbowl, so consider that almost a tossup, although for historical reasons I don't have any home field advantage taken into account.

I like to look for any weird imbalances when we get to the playoffs, and there really aren't many this year. All teams 11 teams with 10 wins or more made the playoffs. The only nonplayoff team with a better record than a playoff team this year is Pittsburgh, at 9-6-1, half a game better than 9-7 Philadelphia. Of course with 6 teams per conference, that doesn't do Pittsburgh any good.

Now for the annual tradition of my (rooting) picks.

Indianapolis at Houston: I always used to root for Peyton Manning and Marshall Faulk, but I was surprised to find myself not all that attached to Indianapolis as they moved on. They're even one of the teams that took out a goofy ad to tell St. Louis they should adopt them as their home team when the Rams left. But, I'm even less attached to Houston, so I'll root for Indianapolis in this one.

Seattle at Dallas: Just for old time's sake, let's root for the Cowboys in this one. I know it's popular to hate the Cowboys, just like the Yankees, but sometimes you just want to see a marquee team in there.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO13-30.745++++++66.6734.4819.21
CHI12-40.768++++73.8241.3723.9714.08
LAR13-30.722++++++48.7525.5813.50
KC12-40.708++++++52.7326.9312.87
NE11-50.708++++++52.3626.8012.80
BAL10-60.714++++53.0926.9514.226.90
LAC12-40.688-++46.9122.3611.115.05
HOU11-50.674++++50.8023.3710.824.75
SEA10-60.653-++62.1524.8010.084.51
IND10-60.667-++49.2022.2310.124.36
DAL10-60.534++++37.8510.903.231.07
PHI9-70.540-++26.187.502.650.89
PIT9-6-10.627------
MIN8-7-10.541------
TEN9-70.517------
CAR7-90.488------
ATL7-90.484------
DEN6-100.456------
GB6-9-10.454------
CLE7-8-10.434------
DET6-100.421------
NYG5-110.418------
TB5-110.383------
CIN6-100.345------
SF4-120.326------
WAS7-90.323------
JAC5-110.317------
NYJ4-120.300------
MIA7-90.285------
BUF6-100.270------
OAK4-120.192------
ARI3-130.128------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-12-30

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 18

This week had 13 bowls, although #14 was canceled for lightning. A bunch of teams shuffled around a little, but most importantly, we had the CFP semifinals. In my rankings, we had 1 vs 3 and 2 vs 4, so #1 Clemson got a bigger strength boost than #2 Alabama, so remained on top. I believe they are close enough that the winner will be my #1 at the end of the year, but we'll see how the other 11 bowls plus the FCS title game affect things.

1Clemson14-0
2Alabama14-0
3Notre Dame12-1
4Oklahoma12-2
5Ohio State12-1
6Georgia11-2
7UCF12-0
8Fresno State12-2
9Washington State11-2
10Army11-2
11Appalachian State11-2
12Florida10-3
13Washington10-3
14Michigan10-3
15UAB11-3
16Utah State11-2
17Boise State10-3
18Syracuse10-3
19Troy10-3
20Cincinnati10-2
21Utah9-4
22Georgia Southern10-3
23LSU9-3
24Kentucky9-3
25Penn State9-3
26NC State9-3
27Texas9-4
28Buffalo10-4
29Texas A&M8-4
30Stanford8-4
31Marshall9-4
32Duke8-5
33Ohio9-4
34Iowa8-4
35Mississippi State8-4
36Missouri8-4
37West Virginia8-4
38Iowa State8-5
39Auburn8-5
40Northwestern8-5
41North Texas9-4
42Virginia8-5
43Northern Illinois8-6
44Florida Intl9-4
45Wisconsin8-5
46Oregon8-4
47Pittsburgh7-6
48Middle Tennessee8-6
49Temple8-5
50Arkansas State8-5
51Hawai'i8-6
52South Carolina7-6
53Wake Forest7-6
54Nevada8-5
55BYU7-6
56TCU7-6
57Boston College7-5
58Louisiana Tech8-5
59Miami7-6
60Georgia Tech7-6
61Baylor7-6
62Minnesota7-6
63Michigan State7-5
64Tulane7-6
65Houston8-5
66Memphis8-6
67Arizona State7-6
68California7-6
69San Diego State7-6
70Eastern Michigan7-6
71South Florida7-6
72Louisiana7-7
73Purdue6-7
74Western Michigan7-6
75Vanderbilt6-7
76Toledo7-6
77Virginia Tech6-6
78Oklahoma State6-6
79Miami (OH)6-6
80Wyoming6-6
81Florida State5-7
82Southern Mississippi6-5
83Tennessee5-7
84UL Monroe6-6
85Indiana5-7
86Texas Tech5-7
87Florida Atlantic5-7
88Coastal Carolina5-7
89Maryland5-7
90Kansas State5-7
91USC5-7
92Ole Miss5-7
93Air Force5-7
94SMU5-7
95Arizona5-7
96Charlotte5-7
97Colorado5-7
98Nebraska4-8
99UMass4-8
100UCLA3-9
101Illinois4-8
102Akron4-8
103UNLV4-8
104Ball State4-8
105Old Dominion4-8
106South Alabama3-9
107Navy3-10
108East Carolina3-9
109Kansas3-9
110New Mexico3-9
111Louisville2-10
112UTSA3-9
113New Mexico State3-9
114Colorado State3-9
115Tulsa3-9
116Western Kentucky3-9
117Bowling Green3-9
118Georgia State2-10
119North Carolina2-9
120Oregon State2-10
121Texas State3-9
122Arkansas2-10
123Rice2-11
124San Jose State1-11
125Kent State2-10
126UConn1-11
127Rutgers1-11
128Central Michigan1-11
129UTEP1-11

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame
Week 7 Notre Dame
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Clemson
Week 15 Clemson
Week 16 Clemson
Week 17 Clemson

2018-12-27

March Card Show Autograph

I'm still catching up on posting all my autographed balls, so here's one I got last March. My last post was from last December's show, and I didn't attend the shows in January or February, although I can't recall exactly why now. Either the signers were ones I already had, or I had other plans. Anyway, in March, I got to meet Tom Niedenfuer.

Tom Niedenfuer

Niedenfuer spent most of his career with the Dodgers, but he spent his final season in St. Louis in 1990, making 52 relief appearances. My only requirement to be a part of my collection is to have ever played for the Cardinals, so a full season definitely qualifies.

2018-12-25

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 16, Final

New Orleans over Kansas City

As was known before, absolutely nothing of substance changed with the Denver-Oakland game, so the projections are all the same. The chances of Kansas City to win the division did come down slightly, because they face a now-stronger Oakland team in Week 17, while their rival Los Angeles faces the now-weaker Denver. Still, it was less than a percentage point change.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO13-20.766++++++69.5039.8025.03
CHI11-40.740++++74.2640.8821.3512.72
LAR12-30.703++++96.0347.6322.8612.62
KC11-40.66190.51++94.0048.6524.5510.51
NE10-50.645++++88.4242.7820.818.55
BAL9-60.71182.0782.0748.9928.0816.127.82
LAC11-40.6609.49++53.8227.3513.935.95
HOU10-50.63775.56++61.2429.1513.775.54
SEA9-60.648-++61.0823.259.724.75
IND9-60.63814.2658.3328.2513.466.372.58
DAL9-60.533++++38.5610.703.311.24
MIN8-6-10.569-58.2519.265.582.170.89
TEN9-60.55710.1941.6717.126.732.640.86
PIT8-6-10.61917.9317.938.163.801.810.70
PHI8-70.490-41.7510.822.460.780.26
GB6-8-10.513------
DEN6-90.487------
ATL6-90.480------
CAR6-90.450------
CLE7-7-10.438------
NYG5-100.417------
TB5-100.385------
WAS7-80.379------
NYJ4-110.363------
JAC5-100.362------
DET5-100.359------
CIN6-90.355------
SF4-110.349------
MIA7-80.326------
OAK4-110.243------
BUF5-100.222------
ARI3-120.137------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-12-24

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 16, Sunday

New Orleans over Kansas City

Carolina, Washington, and Miami were all eliminated, and we're down to 15 teams alive in the playoff race. 9 teams have clinched, and we really have 2 pairs of teams each fighting for one spot. In the AFC North, Baltimore leads Pittsburgh by a half-game, so barring further ties, one or the other will win the division outright, and the other will be eliminated. Minnesota and Philadelphia are in the same situation for a wildcard spot, with Minnesota up by the half game. Those 4 all play in the late games Sunday, while the prime time game has Indianapolis against Tennessee, the only pair lined up against each other. The winner will make the playoffs, possibly as the AFC South winner, and the loser will not make the playoffs.

But, we still have Denver vs Oakland on Monday night, which is utterly meaningless except for draft position.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO13-20.766++++++69.5039.8025.03
CHI11-40.740++++74.2640.8921.3512.73
LAR12-30.703++++96.0347.6222.8612.62
KC11-40.66191.36++94.4148.8724.6610.55
NE10-50.645++++88.4242.7820.818.55
BAL9-60.71182.0782.0748.9928.0816.127.82
LAC11-40.6608.64++53.3827.1213.825.90
HOU10-50.63775.55++61.2829.1713.775.54
SEA9-60.648-++61.0923.259.724.75
IND9-60.63814.2658.3328.2513.466.372.57
DAL9-60.533++++38.5510.693.311.23
MIN8-6-10.569-58.2619.265.592.170.89
TEN9-60.55710.1941.6717.116.732.640.86
PIT8-6-10.61917.9317.938.163.791.810.69
PHI8-70.490-41.7410.812.450.780.26
DEN6-80.515------
GB6-8-10.513------
ATL6-90.480------
CAR6-90.450------
CLE7-7-10.438------
NYG5-100.417------
TB5-100.385------
WAS7-80.379------
NYJ4-110.363------
JAC5-100.362------
DET5-100.359------
CIN6-90.355------
SF4-110.349------
MIA7-80.326------
OAK3-110.231------
BUF5-100.222------
ARI3-120.137------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield in conference playoffs: New Orleans (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 16, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-12-23

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 17

After 9 more bowls, and no lower division games this week, the rankings shuffled around a surprising amount in the middle. Most teams only moved around a place or two, of course. Army moved up the highest of anyone, from #14 to #9, so no one else cracked into the playoff top 4. The worst teams to move were Rice and San Diego State, swapping positions at #123 and #124 due to strength of schedule changes.

We've got 26 bowls plus an FCS title game to go.

1Clemson13-0
2Alabama13-0
3Notre Dame12-0
4Oklahoma12-1
5Ohio State12-1
6UCF12-0
7Georgia11-2
8Fresno State12-2
9Army11-2
10Appalachian State11-2
11Washington10-3
12UAB11-3
13Michigan10-2
14Washington State10-2
15Utah State11-2
16Boise State10-3
17Troy10-3
18Cincinnati10-2
19Utah9-4
20Georgia Southern10-3
21Florida9-3
22Kentucky9-3
23LSU9-3
24Penn State9-3
25NC State9-3
26Buffalo10-4
27Syracuse9-3
28Texas9-4
29Texas A&M8-4
30Stanford8-4
31Marshall9-4
32Ohio9-4
33Mississippi State8-4
34Missouri8-4
35Iowa8-4
36West Virginia8-3
37Iowa State8-4
38Northwestern8-5
39North Texas9-4
40Northern Illinois8-6
41Florida Intl9-4
42Temple8-4
43Oregon8-4
44Arkansas State8-4
45Middle Tennessee8-6
46South Carolina7-5
47Pittsburgh7-6
48Duke7-5
49Hawai'i8-6
50Wake Forest7-6
51Auburn7-5
52BYU7-6
53Louisiana Tech8-5
54Boston College7-5
55Georgia Tech7-5
56Miami7-5
57Tulane7-6
58Michigan State7-5
59Houston8-5
60Memphis8-6
61Virginia7-5
62Arizona State7-6
63California7-5
64Wisconsin7-5
65Eastern Michigan7-6
66South Florida7-6
67San Diego State7-6
68Louisiana7-7
69Vanderbilt6-6
70Nevada7-5
71Purdue6-6
72Western Michigan7-6
73TCU6-6
74Toledo7-6
75Virginia Tech6-6
76Baylor6-6
77Minnesota6-6
78Oklahoma State6-6
79Miami (OH)6-6
80Wyoming6-6
81Florida State5-7
82Southern Mississippi6-5
83UL Monroe6-6
84Tennessee5-7
85Indiana5-7
86Coastal Carolina5-7
87Florida Atlantic5-7
88Texas Tech5-7
89Maryland5-7
90USC5-7
91Kansas State5-7
92Ole Miss5-7
93Arizona5-7
94Air Force5-7
95Charlotte5-7
96SMU5-7
97Colorado5-7
98Nebraska4-8
99UMass4-8
100UCLA3-9
101Akron4-8
102Illinois4-8
103Ball State4-8
104UNLV4-8
105Old Dominion4-8
106South Alabama3-9
107Navy3-10
108East Carolina3-9
109Kansas3-9
110New Mexico3-9
111Louisville2-10
112UTSA3-9
113New Mexico State3-9
114Tulsa3-9
115Colorado State3-9
116Bowling Green3-9
117Western Kentucky3-9
118Georgia State2-10
119North Carolina2-9
120Oregon State2-10
121Texas State3-9
122Arkansas2-10
123Rice2-11
124San Jose State1-11
125Kent State2-10
126UConn1-11
127Rutgers1-11
128Central Michigan1-11
129UTEP1-11

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame
Week 7 Notre Dame
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Clemson
Week 15 Clemson
Week 16 Clemson

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 16, Saturday

New Orleans over Kansas City

Can we just agree Saturday games are weird? It just doesn't feel like the right day for the NFL when you also watch college football. At least all 4 teams were fighting for playoff position. The LA Chargers lost to Baltimore, who now have an 80% chance at either the second wildcard or winning the AFC North. That loss helps Kansas City too, moving them from 77% to 92% likely to have homefield throughout the playoffs, and from 79% to 96% for the AFC West. They can clinch both with a win Sunday and a Houston loss or tie, or a few other combinations of game results that clinch a lower tiebreaker for them.

In the other game, Tennessee beat Washington, but both teams are still alive, though Washington can't win the NFC East now, due to their bad divisional record (2-3 currently). Tennessee is still holding on to a very tiny chance of winning the AFC South, and about a 34% chance of playoffs overall. Either of Saturday's results on its own would have eliminated Cleveland, who needed a bunch of teams to pile up at 8 wins to have a chance.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO12-20.759++++99.2368.9141.0725.50
CHI10-40.723++++75.9943.0622.1912.75
KC11-30.67096.13++97.7251.2626.8312.23
LAR11-30.667++++94.0445.5420.3410.38
HOU10-40.64393.6099.4983.9541.2919.758.43
BAL9-60.71161.3180.3947.5326.9715.517.80
LAC11-40.6603.87++52.6526.6413.536.02
NE9-50.62198.6298.6563.5829.5113.295.37
SEA8-60.639-98.4358.4222.689.894.73
PIT8-5-10.62538.6946.1821.4610.134.741.94
IND8-60.6373.1838.7518.748.754.201.77
DAL8-60.51796.8097.5238.4310.893.401.22
MIN7-6-10.531-65.1923.206.492.320.86
TEN9-60.5573.2234.1813.845.342.130.73
PHI7-70.4853.2029.728.692.070.670.22
WAS7-80.379-7.431.530.260.060.02
CAR6-80.479-1.710.450.110.040.01
MIA7-70.3501.382.350.540.120.030.00
DEN6-80.515------
GB5-8-10.502------
ATL5-90.455------
CLE6-7-10.422------
NYG5-90.418------
TB5-90.398------
DET5-90.397------
CIN6-80.370------
NYJ4-100.368------
SF4-100.363------
JAC4-100.342------
BUF5-90.247------
OAK3-110.231------
ARI3-110.171------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-12-18

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 15, Final

New Orleans over Kansas City

New Orleans beat Carolina to reach 12-2 and stand alone on top of the NFC standings, but doesn't quiet have its first round bye yet. I'd say we'll have most teams either in or out of the playoffs after week 16, with only a few in the middle still fighting for a spot in week 17. Saturday could be interesting, because the currently-seeded #6 and #8 teams, Baltimore and Tennessee, are both playing. #5 LA is also playing, but they'll either be the first wildcard and #5 seed, or win their division and possibly be #1.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO12-20.759++++99.2869.0441.1525.76
CHI10-40.723++++76.2943.1822.2612.91
KC11-30.67078.91++90.1847.6925.2611.51
LAR11-30.667++++94.3345.6920.3910.52
HOU10-40.64394.9799.8385.1042.7420.568.78
LAC11-30.67621.09++63.8633.9018.178.38
NE9-50.62198.6798.7464.3730.1913.755.55
SEA8-60.639-98.1958.5822.719.904.80
BAL8-60.68535.9849.9127.3114.557.883.72
PIT8-5-10.62564.0270.8832.8415.437.322.99
IND8-60.6373.1748.7624.5011.415.532.33
DAL8-60.51794.3295.7937.7510.673.341.21
MIN7-6-10.531-59.2421.195.942.120.80
TEN8-60.5351.8625.6010.383.781.440.47
PHI7-70.4853.2627.388.031.920.620.21
WAS7-70.3982.4217.864.130.750.190.05
MIA7-70.3501.336.281.470.310.070.01
CAR6-80.479-1.540.410.100.030.01
CLE6-7-10.422-0.000.000.000.000.00
DEN6-80.515------
GB5-8-10.502------
ATL5-90.455------
NYG5-90.418------
TB5-90.397------
DET5-90.397------
CIN6-80.370------
NYJ4-100.368------
SF4-100.363------
JAC4-100.342------
BUF5-90.247------
OAK3-110.231------
ARI3-110.171------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-12-17

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 15, Sunday

New Orleans over Kansas City

Chicago clinched the NFC North, but the 4 other almost-there teams couldn't quite do it. Dallas even fell from 99% to 95% by losing in a shutout to Indianapolis, combined with Philadelphia's unlikely win over the LA Rams. Washington also won, but that was the expected outcome in that game. All teams that were below 8% are now eliminated, except for Cleveland, who needs to win out and also have Indianapolis and Tennessee tie in week 17 among other things, because otherwise one of them will have the 9 wins Cleveland can't reach.

New Orleans is close, but can't clinch a bye on Monday. I don't actually show the probability of getting a first round bye, but when the Wildcard column reaches 100%, that means the team is guaranteed to make the next round, so a bye. Thus, right now the chances are something less than 97.75% of the bye, since some of those simulations are accounted for by winning in the first weekend if they have to play then. Carolina also won't be eliminated with a loss tonight, so this game won't simplify the chart at all tomorrow, just shift the numbers.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NO11-20.743++++97.7565.0037.5622.73
CHI10-40.723++++77.8443.8523.6413.72
KC11-30.67078.91++90.1947.6925.2711.82
LAR11-30.667++++94.4646.8221.5911.14
HOU10-40.64394.9899.8285.1042.7520.579.02
LAC11-30.67621.09++63.8833.9118.168.60
NE9-50.62198.6898.7464.3230.1613.755.71
SEA8-60.639-98.0958.5223.8010.485.07
BAL8-60.68535.1649.6627.1914.497.863.80
PIT8-5-10.62564.8471.5833.1915.597.413.11
IND8-60.6373.1648.4824.3411.335.492.37
DAL8-60.51794.3195.5937.6911.183.561.29
MIN7-6-10.531-57.9620.756.212.220.84
TEN8-60.5351.8625.4310.313.751.430.48
PHI7-70.4853.2625.397.471.920.620.21
WAS7-70.3982.4317.684.080.810.200.05
CAR6-70.485-5.291.440.410.130.04
MIA7-70.3501.326.291.470.310.070.01
CLE6-7-10.422-0.000.000.000.000.00
DEN6-80.515------
GB5-8-10.502------
ATL5-90.455------
NYG5-90.418------
TB5-90.397------
DET5-90.397------
CIN6-80.370------
NYJ4-100.368------
SF4-100.363------
JAC4-100.342------
BUF5-90.247------
OAK3-110.231------
ARI3-110.171------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 11, Final)
First to clinch a playoff spot: Los Angeles Rams (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from the Playoffs: San Francisco and Oakland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 4, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 5, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 6, Final] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Thursday] Baltimore over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 8, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 9, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 10, Final] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Thursday] Kansas City over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 11, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 11, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 12, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 13, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Sunday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 14, Final] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Thursday] New Orleans over Kansas City
[Week 15, Saturday] New Orleans over Kansas City

2018-12-16

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 16

There were 5 FBS bowls, 1 FCS bowl and 2 semifinals, and championship game for both Division II and Division III this week. Still, there was a little movement relatively high in the rankings. The Top 4 spots didn't change, but Ohio State moved from #6 to #5 ahead of UCF. That appears to be mostly due to Tulane, an Ohio State opponent, winning their bowl.

In Division III, congrats to Mary Hardin-Baylor, and in Division II to Valdosta State. Am I making up those names? You probably have no idea!

We've got 35 bowls plus an FCS title game to go.

1Clemson13-0
2Alabama13-0
3Notre Dame12-0
4Oklahoma12-1
5Ohio State12-1
6UCF12-0
7Georgia11-2
8Fresno State12-2
9Appalachian State11-2
10Washington10-3
11Michigan10-2
12Washington State10-2
13Utah State11-2
14Army10-2
15Boise State10-3
16Cincinnati10-2
17Utah9-4
18Georgia Southern10-3
19Florida9-3
20Kentucky9-3
21LSU9-3
22UAB10-3
23Penn State9-3
24Buffalo10-3
25NC State9-3
26Syracuse9-3
27Texas9-4
28Troy9-3
29Texas A&M8-4
30Stanford8-4
31Missouri8-4
32Mississippi State8-4
33Iowa8-4
34West Virginia8-3
35Iowa State8-4
36Northwestern8-5
37Northern Illinois8-5
38North Texas9-4
39Temple8-4
40Oregon8-4
41Arkansas State8-4
42South Carolina7-5
43Marshall8-4
44Hawai'i8-5
45Pittsburgh7-6
46Middle Tennessee8-6
47Ohio8-4
48Duke7-5
49Auburn7-5
50Boston College7-5
51Georgia Tech7-5
52Miami7-5
53Memphis8-5
54Michigan State7-5
55Houston8-4
56Tulane7-6
57Virginia7-5
58Arizona State7-6
59Florida Intl8-4
60California7-5
61San Diego State7-5
62South Florida7-5
63Eastern Michigan7-6
64Wisconsin7-5
65Louisiana7-7
66Nevada7-5
67Vanderbilt6-6
68Western Michigan7-5
69Wake Forest6-6
70BYU6-6
71Purdue6-6
72Toledo7-5
73TCU6-6
74Louisiana Tech7-5
75Virginia Tech6-6
76Oklahoma State6-6
77Baylor6-6
78Minnesota6-6
79Wyoming6-6
80Miami (OH)6-6
81Florida State5-7
82Tennessee5-7
83UL Monroe6-6
84Southern Mississippi6-5
85Texas Tech5-7
86Indiana5-7
87Coastal Carolina5-7
88Maryland5-7
89USC5-7
90Florida Atlantic5-7
91Kansas State5-7
92Ole Miss5-7
93Air Force5-7
94SMU5-7
95Arizona5-7
96Colorado5-7
97Charlotte5-7
98Nebraska4-8
99UMass4-8
100UCLA3-9
101Akron4-8
102Illinois4-8
103UNLV4-8
104Ball State4-8
105Navy3-10
106Old Dominion4-8
107East Carolina3-9
108South Alabama3-9
109Kansas3-9
110New Mexico3-9
111Tulsa3-9
112Colorado State3-9
113Louisville2-10
114New Mexico State3-9
115Bowling Green3-9
116Georgia State2-10
117UTSA3-9
118Western Kentucky3-9
119North Carolina2-9
120Oregon State2-10
121Texas State3-9
122Arkansas2-10
123San Jose State1-11
124Rice2-11
125Kent State2-10
126UConn1-11
127Rutgers1-11
128Central Michigan1-11
129UTEP1-11

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford
Week 5 Notre Dame
Week 6 Notre Dame
Week 7 Notre Dame
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Clemson
Week 15 Clemson