2016-11-29

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 12, Final

New England over Dallas

Philadelphia was the third strongest team before their loss last night, despite being 5-5 on the season. Green Bay was 23rd, but they pulled off the win on the road. Philadelphia would now need to win out, have Dallas lose out, and get some losses from the other two teams in the division, as well as getting some tiebreakers to fall correctly, in order to win their division. Buffalo and Philadelphia are teams that have really outplayed their records, which basically means they've been unlucky, or have won some games by a large margin while losing their games by small margins.

In Week 13 there are two final byes, Cleveland and Tennessee, and everyone will have played 12 games. We'll probably see several more eliminations as teams run out of room to catch the leaders, and perhaps a playoff clinch or two.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE9-20.68394.7399.0597.2962.0938.9122.45
DAL10-10.68292.6599.8896.8462.2638.5522.18
DEN7-40.5976.8646.6629.9314.487.113.45
PIT6-50.59155.0359.7733.3116.227.773.72
SEA7-3-10.59196.9497.6379.2341.8119.329.24
PHI5-60.5890.019.224.912.111.060.51
BUF6-50.5880.2526.0315.026.743.311.57
ATL7-40.58681.7487.6759.8929.9313.846.55
KC8-30.58337.2382.9262.5531.5114.476.81
MIN6-50.56523.7844.9124.5210.684.892.21
OAK9-20.55655.8992.0675.8836.3915.516.89
NO5-60.5438.8115.057.633.171.390.60
BAL6-50.54244.1346.7522.899.834.281.84
NYG8-30.5427.1078.4341.8616.917.493.22
SD5-60.5370.023.281.650.640.290.12
ARI4-6-10.5373.006.062.951.190.520.22
WAS6-4-10.5300.2451.5224.479.224.061.70
TEN6-60.52225.5727.2012.495.052.070.85
DET7-40.51965.8973.0241.7417.236.842.79
MIA7-40.5195.0240.5322.428.913.741.53
CAR4-70.4910.491.160.510.180.070.03
GB5-60.47310.3213.155.731.970.730.26
TB6-50.4708.9622.159.683.331.240.45
IND5-60.44420.8421.127.932.620.880.30
CIN3-7-10.4290.840.840.300.100.030.01
HOU6-50.40253.5653.7518.345.421.620.49
NYJ3-80.353-0.000.000.000.000.00
JAC2-90.3490.030.030.010.000.000.00
LA4-70.3430.060.140.040.010.000.00
CHI2-90.3180.000.000.000.000.000.00
SF1-100.311------
CLE0-120.237------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas

2016-11-28

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 12, Sunday

New England over Dallas

New England took over the lead in strength, 0.68344 to 0.68251, so would be just barely favored against Dallas. Dallas lost just a little bit of their playoff odds, because the Giants keep winning and are still only 2 games back in the NFC East.

Denver, despite being the 4th best team, has a decent shot of missing the playoffs the year after a Superbowl win. They're just 47% likely to make the playoffs, and 7% to win the division, in third place and 2 games behind Oakland, and 1 behind Kansas City, who they lost to last night as time expired in overtime.

San Francisco is now officially eliminated, so I can stop trying to run enough simulations to get them to advance. The Jets are also eliminated from their division, which doesn't take any sort of tiebreakers to determine; they've got 8 losses and New England has 9 wins, so they can't be caught.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE9-20.68394.7399.0597.3062.1038.9222.41
DAL10-10.68392.4899.8496.7161.5238.0221.88
PHI5-50.6160.1925.5014.326.613.491.76
DEN7-40.5976.8646.7229.9714.507.123.45
PIT6-50.59155.6660.2533.5616.347.823.73
SEA7-3-10.59197.0597.6279.1241.6519.169.17
BUF6-50.5880.2526.0715.046.753.311.57
ATL7-40.58681.6786.6258.4929.1813.446.36
KC8-30.58337.2282.9562.5731.5214.476.79
MIN6-50.56524.7744.1023.9710.474.772.16
OAK9-20.55655.9092.0775.8936.3915.516.87
NO5-60.5438.8114.067.092.961.290.55
BAL6-50.54243.5346.0822.539.674.211.81
NYG8-30.5427.0876.4140.7216.437.243.11
SD5-60.5370.023.291.660.640.290.12
ARI4-6-10.5372.895.352.601.060.460.20
WAS6-4-10.5300.2446.7922.208.373.671.54
TEN6-60.52225.2326.9012.365.002.050.84
DET7-40.51970.5876.1342.9617.737.002.86
MIA7-40.5195.0240.5522.448.923.741.52
CAR4-70.4910.491.060.460.160.060.02
TB6-50.4709.0320.819.063.131.150.42
GB4-60.4484.645.582.270.730.250.09
IND5-60.44420.6320.927.852.590.870.30
CIN3-7-10.4290.810.810.290.090.030.01
HOU6-50.40254.1154.3018.545.481.640.49
NYJ3-80.353-0.000.000.000.000.00
JAC2-90.3490.030.030.010.000.000.00
LA4-70.3430.060.120.040.010.000.00
CHI2-90.3180.000.000.000.000.000.00
SF1-100.311------
CLE0-120.237------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England

2016-11-27

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

Alabama and Clemson stayed at the top after Rivalry weekend, which leads us to Conference Championship weekend. With a defeat of a very highly ranked Michigan team, Ohio State overtook undefeated Western Michigan for the #3 spot. I feel like this year really helps justify my ranking system, because it boosts an undefeated non-power-conference team up high, but not automatically #1 just for being 12-0, because the ranking of a team's opponents comes into play. I'd really like to see them beat Ohio next week to see how the committee justifies keeping an undefeated team out of the playoff. I realize they probably aren't the top team, but if winning every game isn't enough to get a shot at the title, then plenty of teams have no chance at the beginning of the season, which is simply dumb. I realize I may have to eat some crow on that statement, since they could fall out of my top 5, since Alabama, Clemson, and Washington will all face tougher teams than Western Michigan, and could push them to #5 or below.

Missouri beat Arkansas to raise themselves up to #90, and finish the season 4-8, certainly left out of the bowl season. Arkansas should still make a lowest-tier bowl at 7-5.

Fresno State stayed #128, and will likely stay there through the playoff as no teams down that low have any more games. It might be possible for the wins and losses of FCS opponents to shift teams a bit, but most likely we've crowned our anti-champion already.

1Alabama12-0
2Clemson11-1
3Ohio State11-1
4Western Michigan12-0
5Washington11-1
6Michigan10-2
7Wisconsin10-2
8Penn State10-2
9Colorado10-2
10Boise State10-2
11South Florida10-2
12Florida State9-3
13Navy9-2
14West Virginia9-2
15USC9-3
16Oklahoma9-2
17Oklahoma State9-2
18Virginia Tech9-3
19Nebraska9-3
20Stanford9-3
21Tulsa9-3
22Louisville9-3
23Houston9-3
24Tennessee8-4
25Toledo9-3
26Temple9-3
27North Carolina8-4
28Appalachian State9-3
29Air Force9-3
30Pittsburgh8-4
31Auburn8-4
32Western Kentucky9-3
33Florida8-3
34Washington State8-4
35Georgia Tech8-4
36Troy9-2
37Texas A&M8-4
38San Diego State9-3
39Iowa8-4
40Wyoming8-4
41Miami8-4
42Old Dominion9-3
43Utah8-4
44LSU7-4
45Memphis8-4
46Minnesota8-4
47BYU8-4
48Georgia7-5
49New Mexico8-4
50Arkansas7-5
51Louisiana Tech8-4
52Colorado State7-5
53Ohio8-4
54Middle Tennessee8-4
55Kentucky7-5
56Kansas State7-4
57Idaho7-4
58Vanderbilt6-6
59Eastern Michigan7-5
60NC State6-6
61Northwestern6-6
62TCU6-5
63South Carolina6-6
64Boston College6-6
65UCF6-6
66Ole Miss5-7
67Arkansas State6-5
68Wake Forest6-6
69Indiana6-6
70Maryland6-6
71Texas San Antonio6-6
72Central Michigan6-6
73Baylor6-5
74Mississippi State5-7
75SMU5-7
76Hawai'i6-7
77Miami (OH)6-6
78Southern Mississippi6-6
79California5-7
80Arizona State5-7
81Army6-5
82Northern Illinois5-7
83Texas Tech5-7
84Louisiana Lafayette5-6
85Texas5-7
86South Alabama5-6
87Syracuse4-8
88North Texas5-7
89Akron5-7
90Missouri4-8
91Duke4-8
92UCLA4-8
93Oregon4-8
94Oregon State4-8
95Tulane4-8
96Cincinnati4-8
97Notre Dame4-8
98Louisiana Monroe4-7
99Nevada5-7
100Bowling Green4-8
101Georgia Southern4-7
102San Jose State4-8
103Arizona3-9
104UNLV4-8
105Utah State3-9
106Charlotte4-8
107Florida Intl4-8
108Ball State4-8
109Illinois3-9
110East Carolina3-9
111New Mexico State3-8
112Michigan State3-9
113UTEP4-8
114Iowa State3-9
115Purdue3-9
116Georgia State3-8
117Kent State3-9
118Connecticut3-9
119Rice3-9
120Marshall3-9
121Virginia2-10
122Rutgers2-10
123Florida Atlantic3-9
124Massachusetts2-10
125Kansas2-10
126Texas State2-9
127Buffalo2-10
128Fresno State1-11

2016 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M
Week 4 Texas A&M
Week 5 Tennessee
Week 6 Texas A&M
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Alabama
Week 10 Alabama
Week 11 Alabama
Week 12 Alabama

2016-11-25

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 12, Thursday

Dallas over New England

We had triple the chances of a meaningful Thursday game this week, with 3 Thanksgiving games played. We didn't get any huge changes, but Dallas solidified their position and cracked the three nines mark and is now 99.9% likely to make the playoffs. Although looking at my numbers with more decimal places, that's slightly rounded up. We can keep it our little secret. I really find myself rooting for Dallas to do well, especially with the outstanding play of their rookie QB. Pittsburgh was the other big winner on the day,, ,moving up to 68% likely to make the playoffs and the 6th strongest team. Detroit also won a game with possible tiebreaker implications to go up 1 game on Minnesota, which flipped the division in their favor.

I really hope San Francisco loses this week so I can stop mentioning the caveat that they are not actually eliminated, I just never got them to the playoffs in 2.1 billion weighted simulations this week. Chicago, Jacksonville, and the Jets may wind up with the faux elimination treatment after Sunday.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
DAL10-10.68294.9999.9097.6062.7038.6022.49
NE8-20.67193.9798.4096.2160.3336.9420.69
PHI5-50.6160.2328.7016.577.644.012.05
SEA7-2-10.60695.3897.5788.5949.8423.6511.85
DEN7-30.60623.6370.8651.5226.8913.466.61
PIT6-50.59164.2768.3938.8519.019.314.43
ARI4-5-10.5794.4716.159.314.181.990.94
KC7-30.57928.9871.0351.2625.6211.935.53
BUF5-50.5750.6522.8413.115.892.831.30
MIN6-50.56523.0446.5025.5911.015.032.31
ATL6-40.55776.8879.2245.0319.968.713.94
OAK8-20.55247.3588.0169.1232.7714.206.22
WAS6-4-10.5300.2347.3123.238.763.811.62
BAL5-50.52932.4935.1517.037.173.101.29
SD4-60.5230.032.911.440.560.240.10
DET7-40.51972.6979.0843.5517.747.032.92
TEN5-60.51113.6716.497.593.021.230.49
NYG7-30.5094.5567.2533.7912.445.062.05
MIA6-40.5045.3735.0619.317.633.121.22
NO4-60.4988.7610.955.021.840.720.28
CAR4-60.4963.815.472.480.890.350.14
TB5-50.45510.5615.426.552.170.760.27
GB4-60.4484.235.472.300.730.250.09
IND5-60.44517.1417.856.802.270.780.26
CIN3-6-10.4413.233.301.240.420.150.05
HOU6-40.42169.0769.5126.458.422.700.85
LA4-60.3980.150.980.370.100.030.01
NYJ3-70.3650.010.060.020.010.000.00
JAC2-80.3620.130.130.040.010.000.00
CHI2-80.3280.040.040.010.000.000.00
SF1-90.323------
CLE0-110.262------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England

2016-11-24

Bowl Pick 'Em Contest Winnings, Part XXIV

College football will be here again before we know it IS HERE, so I've got to get my prize from last season's Bowl Pick 'Em contest at Cards on Cards posted! My prize for a second place tie was a very generously sized box of cards, so I felt a bit overwhelmed even sorting through them. I finally sorted them out by player, and, as usual, I'll plan to post them all eventually, but I might quit halfway through, we'll see.

Part I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII XVIII XIX XX XXI XXII XXIII

Today I'm thankful for prizes, Bernard Gilkey, and Gregg Jefferies. Also family and all that usual stuff too.

1991 Topps Stadium Club #402 Bernard Gilkey
1994 Score #420 Bernard Gilkey
1995 Pinnacle #62 Bernard Gilkey
1996 Donruss #49 Bernard Gilkey
1994 Donruss #9 Gregg Jefferies
1994 Leaf #56 Gregg Jefferies
1994 Studio #51 Gregg Jefferies
1994 Topps - Black Gold #35 Gregg Jefferies
1995 Upper Deck - Trade Exchange #TC5 Gregg Jefferies

I've apparently never posted a 1994 Studio card before, which I find hard to believe, but there it is.

Gilkey was part of the Cardinals when I first started watching baseball. I should really put together some kind of project with members of that team. He's probably better known for his time with the Mets, both due to performance, and being in the biggest market.


1994 Upper Deck
#265 Gregg Jefferies
#406 Bernard Gilkey

I always associate Gregg Jefferies with an episode of Who's the Boss, where Tony was watching highlights from his playing career with the St. Louis Cardinals. I believe it was a game against the Mets, and they didn't show the video, just very fake audio, and Gregg was mentioned as the first basemen.

2016-11-22

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 11, Final

Dallas over New England

Oakland beat Houston in Mexico City to move up a few spots in the strength ranking, and increase their playoff chances by over 9 percentage points at 8-2. Houston took a similar downward hit, falling from 6-3 to 6-4. And for the record, San Francisco still isn't really eliminated, but didn't make it in any of my 1.5 billion simulations today.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
DAL9-10.67589.0599.2994.5759.7836.1920.89
NE8-20.67193.9498.4096.2860.8937.6321.28
PHI5-50.6160.6425.6014.746.983.661.88
SEA7-2-10.60695.4397.3987.8548.7323.6111.91
DEN7-30.60624.0370.9952.3627.5913.926.90
ARI4-5-10.5804.4214.938.503.881.860.89
KC7-30.57929.4071.1752.3126.5712.435.82
BUF5-50.5750.7023.6613.906.263.021.40
MIN6-40.57054.8167.6340.8618.738.594.02
ATL6-40.55776.8378.8144.8919.998.844.02
OAK8-20.55246.5487.3268.6932.9714.406.37
PIT5-50.54749.6252.3926.6711.795.282.31
WAS6-3-10.5402.8758.8030.2812.215.412.37
BAL5-50.52944.2945.8022.179.324.051.70
SD4-60.5230.042.931.520.590.260.11
DET6-40.51241.2954.0328.1811.214.491.85
TEN5-60.51110.5713.786.522.611.080.43
NYG7-30.5097.4467.1334.3812.995.312.17
MIA6-40.5045.3634.6219.697.843.231.28
NO4-60.4988.7810.594.811.790.700.28
CAR4-60.4963.785.242.350.860.340.13
IND5-50.48328.2230.6213.525.071.930.73
TB5-50.45510.6114.766.232.100.740.27
GB4-60.4483.875.012.060.670.230.08
CIN3-6-10.4416.096.132.300.770.270.09
HOU6-40.42161.1362.0524.027.722.500.80
LA4-60.3970.150.760.290.080.030.01
NYJ3-70.3640.010.050.020.010.000.00
JAC2-80.3620.090.090.030.010.000.00
CHI2-80.3280.030.030.010.000.000.00
SF1-90.323------
CLE0-110.262------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England

2016-11-21

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 11, Sunday

Dallas over New England

I'm a little surprised Dallas didn't crack the 99.9% playoff barrier yet. A strong division is holding them back a little bit, only 89% likely to win the NFC East. New England has the reverse situation, where they lost this week, but are still 2 games ahead of Miami, 3 games ahead of Buffalo, and 5 games ahead of New York.

Cleveland has been officially eliminated, but now another team is messing with my numbers. San Francisco can't win their division, but aren't completely out of the playoff hunt just yet. I generally test a theory like this by running a set of dummy simulations, forcing the team in question to win all their games, having any teams that have clinched a higher position win out (Dallas and Seattle with 9 and 7.5 wins in this case), and having all interconference games won by the opposite conference team. Even after forcing all those situations for San Francisco, I showed them with a very small chance of making the playoffs. Since I ran 1 billion simulations, I'll say they're somewhere around 1 in a billion, give or take a few orders of magnitude.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
DAL9-10.67589.0599.2994.5759.7836.1920.94
NE8-20.67193.9598.5596.1360.9237.8921.42
PHI5-50.6160.6425.6014.746.983.661.89
SEA7-2-10.60695.4397.3987.8548.7323.6111.95
DEN7-30.60628.7072.2954.2229.0314.677.28
ARI4-5-10.5804.4214.928.503.881.860.89
KC7-30.57934.1672.3853.1027.3712.836.01
BUF5-50.5750.7025.0714.556.573.201.49
MIN6-40.57054.8467.6640.8818.748.594.03
ATL6-40.55776.7778.7444.8419.988.844.04
PIT5-50.54749.6752.6627.2112.215.482.40
WAS6-3-10.5402.8758.8030.2812.215.412.38
OAK7-20.53937.0678.2657.4726.7111.404.90
BAL5-50.52944.3445.9722.529.614.181.76
SD4-60.5230.083.261.700.660.290.12
DET6-40.51241.3354.0728.2111.224.491.86
TEN5-60.5117.5111.425.542.220.930.37
NYG7-30.5097.4467.1434.3912.995.312.18
MIA6-40.5045.3435.7119.917.913.291.30
NO4-60.4988.7710.584.801.790.700.28
CAR4-60.4963.835.322.390.870.340.14
IND5-50.48321.8026.1311.854.451.710.64
TB5-50.45510.6314.776.232.100.740.27
GB4-60.4483.804.922.020.660.230.08
CIN3-6-10.4415.996.032.290.780.270.09
HOU6-30.43670.6372.1533.4711.543.851.28
LA4-60.3970.150.760.290.080.030.01
NYJ3-70.3640.010.060.020.010.000.00
JAC2-80.3620.060.060.020.000.000.00
CHI2-80.3280.030.030.010.000.000.00
SF1-90.323------
CLE0-110.262------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England

2016-11-20

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 12

At the top of my rankings, #2 and #3 changed positions, but everything else was pretty stable this week. Louisville was the top team to suffer a loss, and they fellf from #7 to #15. Even though I knocked them down a spot for losing to the second worst team - Buffalo - I think the College Football Playoff voters should raise them up a bit, as they were all the way down at #21 again last week. Obviously they could raise them all the way to #5 and it would be pretty meaningless since there is no consolation prize for just missing the playoff, but it seems the voters don't like wild swings, so I'd say no team below #8 leading into conference championship weekend has any chance at being chosen.

Missouri lost again, but to a strong Tennessee team, so they actually moved up 3 positions to #102.

Fresno State lost again and remains #128, with 1 game to go.

1Alabama11-0
2Clemson10-1
3Western Michigan11-0
4Ohio State10-1
5Michigan10-1
6Boise State10-1
7Washington10-1
8Penn State9-2
9Wisconsin9-2
10Colorado9-2
11Nebraska9-2
12Oklahoma9-2
13South Florida9-2
14Oklahoma State9-2
15Louisville9-2
16Houston9-2
17Florida State8-3
18Tennessee8-3
19North Carolina8-3
20Toledo9-2
21Auburn8-3
22Navy8-2
23Texas A&M8-3
24USC8-3
25Florida8-2
26West Virginia8-2
27Virginia Tech8-3
28Washington State8-3
29San Diego State9-2
30Stanford8-3
31Tulsa8-3
32Wyoming8-3
33Temple8-3
34Utah8-3
35Minnesota8-3
36Appalachian State8-3
37Western Kentucky8-3
38Troy8-2
39Pittsburgh7-4
40Arkansas7-4
41Georgia7-4
42Air Force8-3
43Georgia Tech7-4
44Louisiana Tech8-3
45Iowa7-4
46Miami7-4
47Old Dominion8-3
48LSU6-4
49BYU7-4
50Memphis7-4
51New Mexico7-4
52Ohio7-4
53Middle Tennessee7-4
54Kansas State6-4
55Colorado State6-5
56Arkansas State6-4
57Ole Miss5-6
58Idaho6-4
59Wake Forest6-5
60Kentucky6-5
61UCF6-5
62South Carolina6-5
63Baylor6-4
64Central Michigan6-5
65Eastern Michigan6-5
66Vanderbilt5-6
67Northwestern5-6
68TCU5-5
69Arizona State5-6
70SMU5-6
71NC State5-6
72Maryland5-6
73Indiana5-6
74Boston College5-6
75Army6-5
76South Alabama5-5
77North Texas5-6
78Texas5-6
79Texas San Antonio5-6
80Mississippi State4-7
81Miami (OH)5-6
82Oregon4-7
83Hawai'i5-7
84California4-7
85Akron5-6
86UCLA4-7
87Syracuse4-7
88Duke4-7
89Southern Mississippi5-6
90Northern Illinois4-7
91Cincinnati4-7
92Texas Tech4-7
93Louisiana Monroe4-7
94Notre Dame4-7
95Louisiana Lafayette4-6
96UNLV4-7
97Georgia Southern4-7
98Oregon State3-8
99Utah State3-8
100Tulane3-8
101Illinois3-8
102Missouri3-8
103Ball State4-7
104Charlotte4-7
105Bowling Green3-8
106Nevada4-7
107Florida Intl4-7
108East Carolina3-8
109Kent State3-8
110Connecticut3-8
111Purdue3-8
112San Jose State3-8
113Michigan State3-8
114New Mexico State3-7
115Iowa State3-8
116Georgia State3-8
117Arizona2-9
118Rice3-8
119Marshall3-8
120Virginia2-9
121Rutgers2-9
122Florida Atlantic3-8
123UTEP3-8
124Massachusetts2-9
125Kansas2-9
126Texas State2-8
127Buffalo2-9
128Fresno State1-10

2016 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M
Week 4 Texas A&M
Week 5 Tennessee
Week 6 Texas A&M
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Alabama
Week 10 Alabama
Week 11 Alabama

2016-11-18

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Dallas over New England

I heard an interesting stat on Thursday, I believe on the Pardon the Interruption podcast, that no team that started 3-7 (or worse I assume) has ever made the playoffs. This was in reference to Carolina playing and having a chance to fall to that level last night, just one season after making the Superbowl. They won, so I guess they won't be making history if they do make the playoffs. I still have them at just a 6.6% chance. 3-7 does seem to be a pretty good cutoff though, as I show the 4 win teams with a 3.2% to 33% of a playoff spot, while the 3-7 or worse teams range from effectively 0 to 0.36%.

This billion simulations managed to get Cleveland to the Superbowl at least once, but they never won it. At the other extreme, they stay at 13.68% likely to finish 0-16.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
DAL8-10.65685.6898.5292.7356.4833.7619.26
NE7-20.64993.3897.4293.4457.0933.9718.85
PHI5-40.6343.2547.9929.7515.518.684.75
DEN7-30.60624.1674.1453.4628.6514.937.62
ARI4-4-10.59518.4235.9823.8812.236.083.07
SEA6-2-10.58280.2588.4774.3339.2418.629.18
KC7-20.58244.6883.2064.2933.8216.447.98
BUF4-50.5641.1018.1210.314.722.281.07
MIN5-40.55948.4556.1633.6415.717.203.38
ATL6-40.55778.9780.6849.1523.2510.544.93
BAL5-40.55460.9062.4333.9115.617.343.36
OAK7-20.54031.1180.3156.3926.0511.525.11
TEN5-50.52420.9827.8914.346.112.661.14
SD4-60.5230.053.771.940.790.350.15
PIT4-50.51629.1632.9815.776.632.871.20
WAS5-3-10.5062.5239.0719.367.563.191.33
NO4-60.4989.3711.325.282.110.850.35
DET5-40.49837.0545.6824.399.893.931.61
CAR4-60.4964.686.573.001.170.480.19
MIA5-40.4965.4825.6814.305.832.420.97
NYG6-30.4958.5558.9330.8111.834.811.96
GB4-50.48014.1617.488.043.051.180.46
IND4-50.47111.4114.106.172.280.880.33
TB4-50.4526.999.564.111.470.530.20
CIN3-5-10.4519.9410.164.001.420.530.19
HOU6-30.43667.4369.5131.5910.953.791.31
LA4-50.4111.343.221.420.470.150.05
JAC2-70.3750.190.200.060.020.010.00
NYJ3-70.3640.030.090.030.010.000.00
SF1-80.3440.000.000.000.000.000.00
CHI2-70.3420.330.360.110.030.010.00
CLE0-100.2900.000.000.000.000.00-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England

2016-11-17

A Celebration Contest at Sport Card Collectors

This pretty awesome Yadier Molina card is being given away at Sport Card Collectors in celebration of 600,000 views.

2016 Prime Cuts - Timeline Trios
#3 Yadier Molina #10/99

And if enough people enter, a bonus prize will be given out.

2016 Prime Cuts
#87 Carlos Gonzalez #21/99

Go check out the contest to enter.

2016-11-15

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 10, Final

Dallas over New England

Cincinnati lost to the Giants, but neither team is near the top of the league, so the projection remains the same. The strong AFC teams lost a few tenths of a percent each, which all flowed to Baltimore and Pittsburgh. With Cincinnati sustaining a loss, the chances of a stronger NFC North winner means everyone else will face a stronger opponents on average on the way to the Superbowl.

Cleveland still has phantom eliminations for the positions of AFC winner and Superbowl champion. Maybe next week we'll get a real elimination for them.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
DAL8-10.65685.6798.4892.6856.4833.7919.27
NE7-20.64993.3897.4293.4457.0933.9718.86
PHI5-40.6343.2547.4229.4315.368.604.70
DEN7-30.60624.1274.1353.4428.6414.937.62
ARI4-4-10.59518.3035.5523.5712.086.013.04
SEA6-2-10.58280.3888.5274.2739.2718.649.19
KC7-20.58244.6283.1964.2733.8116.437.98
BUF4-50.5641.1018.1110.304.722.281.07
MIN5-40.55948.5155.8133.3115.567.143.35
ATL6-40.55773.9777.0047.2422.3410.144.74
BAL5-40.55460.9062.4333.9015.617.353.37
OAK7-20.54031.2180.3956.4726.0911.545.12
TEN5-50.52420.9827.8914.346.112.661.14
SD4-60.5230.043.771.930.790.350.15
PIT4-50.51629.1632.9715.766.632.871.20
WAS5-3-10.5062.5338.7719.257.533.181.33
NO4-50.50317.5021.4910.624.331.760.73
DET5-40.49836.9845.3724.189.803.901.60
MIA5-40.4965.4825.6614.295.832.420.97
NYG6-30.4958.5558.6730.7111.804.811.96
CAR3-60.4912.313.301.480.570.230.09
GB4-50.48014.1917.347.963.021.170.46
IND4-50.47111.4114.106.172.280.880.33
TB4-50.4526.228.763.791.350.490.18
CIN3-5-10.4519.9410.164.001.420.530.19
HOU6-30.43667.4369.5031.5810.953.791.31
LA4-50.4111.323.181.410.460.150.05
JAC2-70.3750.190.200.060.020.010.00
NYJ3-70.3640.030.090.030.010.000.00
SF1-80.3440.000.000.000.000.000.00
CHI2-70.3420.330.360.110.030.010.00
CLE0-100.2900.000.000.000.00--

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England

2016-11-14

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 10, Sunday

Dallas over New England

Dallas won and New England lost, swapping their positions in my strength ratings, and thus also inverting my Superbowl projection. I think I could root for Dallas in the Superbowl. After all, I did it back in the early 90s before St. Louis got a team. I even had a Troy Aikman poster in my room at one point.

With 1 8-win team and 2 8+ loss teams, we're getting ever closer to our first real elimination. I ran 1 billion simulations this week, and as you can see Cleveland won their division in at least one of them, but never won the Superbowl. As I always feel the need to point out, if you can make the playoffs, you have some chance of being champion, so the zero chances of them winning it all, or the AFC, or even making the AFC championship, aren't quite accurate. But, in my billion weighted random samples, it never happened, so don't bet on them unless someone gives you 1000000000:1 odds or better.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
DAL8-10.65687.8998.6393.4656.8333.9519.38
NE7-20.64993.4097.4293.4257.1634.0418.86
PHI5-40.6343.5349.5830.8216.078.974.91
DEN7-30.60624.1774.0253.5028.7014.977.62
ARI4-4-10.59518.2937.4824.6412.566.233.15
SEA6-2-10.58280.3889.2274.6939.3918.659.20
KC7-20.58244.6383.0764.2833.8616.477.98
BUF4-50.5641.1018.0110.284.712.271.06
MIN5-40.55948.4856.5833.7115.707.193.38
ATL6-40.55773.9777.3047.4022.3610.124.74
BAL5-40.55456.9358.8032.1514.816.973.19
OAK7-20.54031.1680.2856.5126.1311.575.12
TEN5-50.52421.0127.8114.296.102.661.14
SD4-60.5230.043.691.900.770.350.15
PIT4-50.51627.1631.1314.956.292.721.14
WAS5-3-10.5062.6941.2720.487.983.351.40
NO4-50.50317.5022.1510.914.431.800.75
DET5-40.49837.0246.2724.579.923.931.62
MIA5-40.4965.4725.5114.245.822.420.97
NYG5-30.4935.9047.3424.129.173.721.51
CAR3-60.4912.313.441.540.590.240.10
GB4-50.48014.1717.798.123.071.180.46
IND4-50.47111.4114.056.142.280.870.33
CIN3-4-10.45415.9116.496.712.410.900.33
TB4-50.4526.229.083.911.390.500.18
HOU6-30.43667.3969.4331.5210.943.791.31
LA4-50.4111.323.491.520.490.160.05
JAC2-70.3750.190.200.060.020.010.00
NYJ3-70.3640.030.090.030.010.000.00
SF1-80.3440.000.000.000.000.000.00
CHI2-70.3420.330.360.110.030.010.00
CLE0-100.2900.000.000.00---

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas