2016-11-07

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 9, Sunday

New England over Dallas

My superbowl teams are now also my two strongest teams, a little over halfway through the season. Dallas won and overtook both Philadelphia and Denver, who both lost. New England, on a bye week, increased their odds just a bit due partially to that Denver loss. Dallas went from a 1 in 4 to 1 in 3 chance of winning the NFC, helped by Minnesota's loss to Detroit.

Cleveland's 0-16 chances are up to 7.29%. Their Superbowl odds are at .000023%. To put that in clearer perspective, in 100,000,000 possible futures from this point forward, they'd win in just 23 of them.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE7-10.65896.7698.9597.3460.7437.3021.35
DAL7-10.65186.6897.7891.5155.6433.2718.68
PHI4-40.6153.2837.6322.3911.436.213.25
DEN6-30.60222.1968.6550.3026.7213.717.04
ARI3-4-10.58831.8041.5025.6012.976.463.20
BUF4-40.5761.5931.5019.138.834.392.14
MIN5-30.57555.2569.4448.1124.1011.595.60
KC6-20.57439.9878.2960.0331.3214.777.16
ATL6-30.56876.3983.9461.8630.9914.546.91
SEA4-2-10.55964.7972.2548.0223.3510.825.05
OAK7-20.53937.1680.8160.1328.4212.385.57
SD4-50.5340.6813.077.383.081.400.62
PIT4-40.52744.4148.0524.6410.794.682.05
GB4-40.52120.6633.2417.987.783.341.44
NO4-40.50618.7031.9817.717.443.081.28
BAL4-40.50237.6439.9619.107.843.241.34
DET5-40.49823.2640.0022.219.143.701.51
CAR3-50.4963.087.093.391.350.550.23
WAS4-3-10.4942.0226.6712.684.932.060.83
NYG5-30.4938.0248.5824.669.623.971.60
TEN4-50.48316.8720.009.123.521.390.55
MIA4-40.4811.5914.667.822.961.200.47
IND4-50.47118.3920.678.963.341.270.49
CIN3-4-10.45417.9518.947.772.811.030.38
HOU5-30.42862.5763.8327.399.383.151.08
LA3-50.4103.344.561.840.610.200.07
TB3-50.4091.833.841.520.490.160.05
CHI2-60.3910.821.420.520.160.050.02
JAC2-60.3822.182.220.720.210.060.02
NYJ3-60.3790.060.390.160.050.010.00
SF1-70.3550.080.090.030.010.000.00
CLE0-90.3250.010.010.000.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas

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