2015-09-29

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 3, Final

Arizona over New England

The same teams are still at the top, but Arizona's overall odds went down just slightly, while New England's improved. Why is that? The answer is the wildcard picture. Green Bay, of the NFC, defeated Kansas City of the AFC. While those teams are not in the same division as either of the current conference favorites, they could wind up competing for a wildcard slot. That lowers Arizona's playoff chances just a bit, and raises New England's, which cascades through all rounds.

At the bottom of the pile, Chicago's in worse wildcard AND divisional position since they're in the NFC North with Green Bay, bringing them to a season low 0.11% chance of winning the Superbowl.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI3-00.58475.4186.0970.4539.8822.3012.15
NE3-00.56249.4276.7559.4931.7516.848.84
NYJ2-10.56026.6957.0440.2021.1711.145.83
CIN3-00.55257.7175.2757.8530.3115.658.06
DEN3-00.55264.3476.6059.4431.1015.988.22
CAR3-00.55049.0476.5456.6029.5915.207.76
BUF2-10.54920.9451.0334.2317.559.034.62
PIT2-10.54932.3950.5934.7017.879.134.67
GB3-00.54564.7580.0259.8630.8915.737.95
ATL3-00.52944.8978.0456.2727.9813.736.72
SEA1-20.52712.6629.0817.028.324.102.00
MIN2-10.52530.6051.9232.9716.127.883.83
TEN1-20.52033.8738.0021.4810.254.912.37
NYG1-20.51123.0531.7817.848.373.951.87
DAL2-10.50042.5250.7729.7113.646.282.89
HOU1-20.49028.7432.1817.237.723.461.57
WAS1-20.49017.5826.1714.386.452.901.31
PHI1-20.48816.8523.6212.625.632.531.14
OAK2-10.48418.8234.5520.309.054.021.80
KC1-20.4837.8119.1410.654.722.090.93
BAL0-30.4752.836.273.161.380.600.26
CLE1-20.4707.0713.667.453.241.400.61
SD1-20.4699.0317.119.183.941.690.73
STL1-20.4618.4119.6110.184.311.840.78
NO0-30.4561.406.012.851.180.490.21
IND1-20.45421.0623.5511.244.621.910.80
MIA1-20.4522.969.334.801.990.830.35
DET0-30.4502.867.593.661.500.620.26
TB1-20.4414.6616.578.213.291.330.54
JAC1-20.43116.3318.948.603.351.310.52
SF1-20.4253.5211.765.472.110.830.32
CHI0-30.4211.794.441.910.720.280.11

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]

2015-09-28

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Arizona over New England

New England's big win, combined with the Jets' loss, brought them to the top of the AFC. Arizona also won big and now has a 1 in 8 shot at winning it all.

Someone better tell Chicago the season started. They're all the way down to an 0.12% chance of winning the Superbowl after a dismal shutout at the hands of Seattle.

As for the Rams, the defense tried its best and held Pittsburgh to one touchdown, but the offense couldn't score one of their own to steal a win.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI3-00.58375.4886.4471.6640.8122.9412.50
NE3-00.56249.4876.1259.0631.5216.728.81
NYJ2-10.56026.7356.2139.6720.9011.005.78
CIN3-00.55257.6974.5857.1129.9115.457.99
DEN3-00.55261.4775.2958.3830.5415.708.11
CAR3-00.55049.1877.1557.6530.3315.668.00
BUF2-10.54920.8149.7833.4217.148.824.53
PIT2-10.54832.3949.7934.0517.548.974.60
GB2-00.53255.9471.2250.3025.2312.536.18
ATL3-00.52944.7778.4957.0628.5514.076.90
SEA1-20.52712.5629.4917.538.614.272.08
MIN2-10.52537.6554.7335.3117.378.524.14
TEN1-20.52033.8537.7321.2710.164.862.36
NYG1-20.51122.9632.0118.218.594.081.93
KC1-10.50012.8528.8717.307.973.671.70
DAL2-10.50042.7051.3030.5014.096.523.01
HOU1-20.49028.7431.9317.037.633.431.56
WAS1-20.49017.5326.4314.736.643.011.36
PHI1-20.48816.8123.8612.925.812.631.18
OAK2-10.48517.4232.9819.428.653.851.73
BAL0-30.4752.836.053.051.330.580.26
CLE1-20.4707.0913.297.233.141.360.59
SD1-20.4698.2616.158.703.731.600.70
STL1-20.4618.4420.1510.634.531.940.82
NO0-30.4561.406.192.981.240.520.22
IND1-20.45421.0723.4211.154.591.900.80
MIA1-20.4522.989.034.661.930.810.34
DET0-30.4503.878.444.111.700.710.29
TB1-20.4414.6516.958.493.431.400.56
JAC1-20.43116.3418.798.513.311.290.51
SF1-20.4253.5312.145.732.230.880.34
CHI0-30.4212.545.012.180.830.320.12

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]


2015-09-27

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 4

Ohio State dropped 6 spots to #7, despite winning. Why? Well, all of their previous opponents lost, while all Northwestern's opponents who were active this week won. This early in the season, that can cause some wild swings.

That sort of thing gets less likely as the year goes on, for two reasons. First, since the system doesn't take future opponents into account, there are more previous opponents as the weeks go on. It's less likely to get a full slate of losses the more teams you take int account. Also, as we get into conference play, often times two previous opponents will be playing against each other, guaranteeing one opponent gets a boost while the other falls, which should be almost neutral toward the team in question.

Missouri lost to Kentucky, knocking them down to #45. I was admittedly incredulous that they were 2.5 to 3 point underdogs on Friday, but Kentucky even covered.

Once again, LSU would be #1 if their week 1 game had not been canceled and they won it. They'd be far ahead of Northwestern, too. Without going into too much detail on the guts of my system, just for brevity's sake, Northwestern has an aggregate score of 18464 (the scale of this changes each week), and Ohio State has 18240, so the difference from 1 to 7 is only 224 points. If LSU had won their game, their score would be 20600, over 2000 points higher than the current #1.


1Northwestern4-0
2Utah4-0
3Indiana4-0
4Texas A&M4-0
5UCLA4-0
6Florida4-0
7Ohio State4-0
8NC State4-0
9Michigan State4-0
10TCU4-0
11California4-0
12Ole Miss4-0
13Georgia4-0
14Iowa4-0
15Notre Dame4-0
16Memphis4-0
17LSU3-0
18Oklahoma State4-0
19West Virginia3-0
20Oklahoma3-0
21Alabama3-1
22Miami (FL)3-0
23Michigan3-1
24Kentucky3-1
25Ohio3-1
26Minnesota3-1
27Temple3-0
28Navy3-0
29Stanford3-1
30Clemson3-0
31North Carolina3-1
32Penn State3-1
33Kansas State3-0
34Florida State3-0
35Wisconsin3-1
36USC3-1
37Baylor3-0
38Western Kentucky3-1
39Duke3-1
40Georgia Southern3-1
41Houston3-0
42Illinois3-1
43Toledo3-0
44Arizona3-1
45Missouri3-1
46Texas Tech3-1
47Mississippi State3-1
48Boise State3-1
49Syracuse3-1
50Marshall3-1
51Boston College3-1
52BYU2-2
53Colorado3-1
54Pittsburgh2-1
55Auburn2-2
56East Carolina2-2
57Oregon State2-2
58Georgia Tech2-2
59Tennessee2-2
60Nebraska2-2
61Air Force2-1
62Louisiana Tech2-2
63South Carolina2-2
64Oregon2-2
65Bowling Green2-2
66Tulsa2-1
67Hawaii2-2
68Wake Forest2-2
69Virginia Tech2-2
70Arizona State2-2
71Connecticut2-2
72Nevada2-2
73Maryland2-2
74Middle Tennessee2-2
75Buffalo2-2
76Washington2-2
77Cincinnati2-2
78Appalachian State2-1
79South Alabama2-2
80San Jose State2-2
81Ball State2-2
82Washington State2-1
83Northern Illinois2-2
84Old Dominion2-2
85Florida Intl2-2
86Akron2-2
87Rutgers2-2
88Southern Mississippi2-2
89Colorado State2-2
90UTEP2-2
91Troy1-2
92Charlotte2-2
93Iowa State1-2
94New Mexico2-2
95Virginia1-3
96Rice2-2
97Texas1-3
98Idaho1-3
99Arkansas1-3
100Utah State1-2
101Fresno State1-3
102San Diego State1-3
103Western Michigan1-3
104Louisville1-3
105Arkansas State1-3
106Louisiana Monroe1-2
107Central Michigan1-3
108Purdue1-3
109SMU1-3
110Tulane1-2
111Vanderbilt1-3
112Florida Atlantic1-3
113Texas State1-3
114UNLV1-3
115Miami (OH)1-3
116Kent State1-3
117South Florida1-2
118Louisiana Lafayette1-2
119Army1-3
120Georgia State1-2
121Massachusetts0-3
122Eastern Michigan1-3
123Kansas0-3
124Texas San Antonio0-4
125North Texas0-3
126UCF0-4
127New Mexico State0-3
128Wyoming0-4

2015 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 Texas A&M
Week 3 Ohio State

2015-09-25

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 3, Thursday

New York Jets over Arizona

I like watching Thursday games, but I don't like what they do to my fantasy teams. I've got Eli Manning in one league and Drew Brees in another. Luckily it's not the same league, because we didn't find out until well after the Thursday night game that Drew Brees will be out this Sunday. But in the league with Eli, I left him benched in favor of Ben Roethlisberger. Yes, I'm willing to play the QB that will face my home team. I'll still root for him to get sacked 10 times, since I'd rather see a Rams win.

As for the real game, New York and Washington are both now 1-2, so nothing changed much at the top. New York doubled their chances at the Lombardi Trophy, while Washington cut theirs in half, in part because this was a slight upset based on Tuesday's numbers. The other New York team remains the favorite.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NYJ2-00.55842.5767.1751.3928.0415.238.25
ARI2-00.54656.9872.7055.8730.1016.088.44
CIN2-00.54450.8266.7250.6326.8114.087.42
CAR2-00.54145.9967.5550.2726.7714.147.34
GB2-00.53261.2171.9552.9027.5614.267.26
PIT1-10.52926.3539.9626.6613.606.913.54
DEN2-00.52748.8763.9146.8823.8712.036.14
TEN1-10.52645.3751.0232.4416.348.214.18
DAL2-00.52459.1769.2249.3525.2512.846.45
NE2-00.52231.5357.0140.1120.1510.155.14
ATL2-00.51236.5962.6743.7121.7410.785.28
NYG1-20.51118.4130.8118.309.044.482.19
MIA1-10.51114.3130.1119.059.334.582.26
BUF1-10.50811.5928.8618.018.774.292.11
KC1-10.50016.6531.3719.539.344.452.15
SD1-10.50020.0631.9719.859.494.522.19
WAS1-20.49014.8025.9615.137.153.391.59
CLE1-10.48415.4926.6016.167.503.471.62
SF1-10.48217.6333.2220.169.384.382.02
BAL0-20.4827.3412.607.033.241.500.70
MIN1-10.48022.0333.9420.029.274.301.97
STL1-10.48018.4532.1319.218.894.121.89
JAC1-10.48029.7437.1921.839.964.542.10
SEA0-20.4786.9514.177.873.631.680.77
OAK1-10.47514.4224.7614.536.592.981.37
DET0-20.4749.4117.139.484.331.980.90
PHI0-20.4737.6213.657.333.341.530.69
HOU0-20.47214.5318.129.684.351.950.89
NO0-20.4664.9312.256.612.961.330.59
TB1-10.46512.5028.7216.597.423.321.47
CHI0-20.4587.3513.937.203.161.400.61
IND0-20.44810.3512.646.212.631.120.48

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]

2015-09-24

eBay Wins #194

I'm still reorganizing and reshuffling my eBay wins. I wasn't really ready to restart with the oldest cards. So, yet again, I'm going backwards, this time by 1 year to 1981. At this point I'm just going to throw the rules out the window and post whatever's handy while I'm in process of sorting.

1981 Donruss #153 Dick Ruthven
This card's not quite as off-center as my scanner would have you believe, but it's also not as sharp as my cropping would lead you to believe, either. Before this Dick Ruthven, I only had 2 cards in 1981 Donruss, Dane Iorg and Red Schoendienst, both of them Cardinals.



eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought3369
Total Spent$52.17
Per Card1.549 cents
Change0 cents

2015-09-22

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 2, Final

New York Jets over Arizona

Well, the Jets and Indianapolis took the outside positions after the Jets held them to just 7 points. So...cheer up, Chicago? That gives the Jets the favorite spot in the AFC, and also puts them ahead of the still-favored NFC's Arizona. It's still very early in the season, of course. The only other piece of analysis I have today is that the Giants are now below 1% to win it all since they will have to face the now-stronger Jets, so all 0-2 teams are now under 1%.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NYJ2-00.55842.4567.0151.2527.9615.188.21
ARI2-00.54656.8772.4555.4229.7915.888.33
CIN2-00.54450.8166.7150.6326.8114.087.41
CAR2-00.54146.1567.2149.8026.4513.947.24
GB2-00.53261.1571.7652.4527.2514.077.17
PIT1-10.52926.3539.9726.6713.596.913.53
DEN2-00.52748.8663.9146.8923.8712.046.13
TEN1-10.52545.3651.0132.4316.348.214.17
DAL2-00.52454.5867.0547.4324.2212.306.18
NE2-00.52231.4356.8539.9720.0910.125.11
WAS1-10.52129.3945.7029.8515.087.613.80
ATL2-00.51236.3161.6642.7121.2010.495.14
MIA1-10.51114.5730.5219.349.474.652.29
BUF1-10.50811.5528.7217.928.734.262.09
KC1-10.50016.6631.3819.549.354.462.15
SD1-10.50020.0631.9719.869.504.532.19
NYG0-20.4909.0816.939.424.442.100.99
CLE1-10.48415.4926.6016.167.503.471.62
SF1-10.48317.7933.2720.129.354.352.00
BAL0-20.4827.3512.617.043.251.500.70
MIN1-10.48022.2634.0319.979.234.271.96
STL1-10.48018.4131.8618.938.744.041.85
JAC1-10.48029.7437.2021.849.974.552.10
SEA0-20.4786.9314.047.743.561.650.75
OAK1-10.47514.4224.7614.546.602.991.37
DET0-20.4749.4016.999.354.261.950.88
PHI0-20.4736.9413.016.983.181.450.66
HOU0-20.47214.5418.139.694.351.950.89
NO0-20.4664.9612.086.482.901.300.58
TB1-10.46512.5728.3916.337.283.261.45
CHI0-20.4587.2013.587.003.071.350.59
IND0-20.44810.3612.646.212.631.120.48

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]

2015-09-21

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Arizona over Cincinnati

For fans around my age, those two teams are represent the prototypical "bad" teams, and in my mind it would make for a bad Superbowl. In reality, in any given year a team with 12-18 wins going into the big game is obviously a good team that year.

Several teams have dropped below a 1% chance of being the champion, and all of them are 0-2. The Giants are also 0-2 but juuust above 1% likely to win it all. Thanks to their loss to Arizona, Chicago has fallen all the way to the bottom by strength, and is officially the worse team in the league according to me. Note that recent weeks are not weighted more heavily in my system; it doesn't know when games take place. Chicago and Arizona just happen to now have the best and worst points scored to allowed ratios, respectively.

The Rams followed up their surprising win at home with probably a more surprising loss at Washington. We would have been happy to start 1-1 before the season began, but everyone would have expected that loss to come against the defending NFC Champions.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI2-00.54656.9172.4855.4529.8015.898.42
CIN2-00.54451.0167.4151.5027.5214.667.71
CAR2-00.54146.1766.9349.5226.3013.877.28
GB2-00.53261.1971.7952.4927.2814.087.26
NYJ1-00.52930.2850.9136.0718.629.584.90
PIT1-10.52926.0840.2326.9713.887.143.65
DEN2-00.52748.4364.0347.2824.3112.426.32
TEN1-10.52641.8548.7231.6716.128.194.16
DAL2-00.52454.5967.3147.7524.3912.386.28
NE2-00.52237.4158.9442.4221.6110.965.54
WAS1-10.52129.4046.0430.1315.227.673.87
ATL2-00.51236.3361.3842.4721.0810.435.17
MIA1-10.51117.8432.4720.8810.345.122.52
BUF1-10.50814.4731.1219.779.744.802.36
KC1-10.50016.7232.0320.059.694.682.26
SD1-10.50020.1532.5720.429.874.762.30
NYG0-20.4909.0717.129.544.502.131.01
CLE1-10.48415.5327.1616.627.793.651.71
SF1-10.48217.7733.2620.119.344.342.03
BAL0-20.4827.3712.917.273.391.590.74
MIN1-10.48022.2434.0219.969.224.261.98
STL1-10.48018.4031.8518.928.734.041.87
JAC1-10.48027.1235.5021.299.834.532.09
SEA0-20.4786.9214.037.743.561.650.76
IND0-10.47618.0023.3713.316.102.801.29
OAK1-10.47514.7025.6315.196.963.191.46
DET0-20.4749.3816.989.344.251.940.89
PHI0-20.4736.9413.187.073.221.470.67
HOU0-20.47213.0317.019.304.221.920.87
NO0-20.4664.9611.926.392.861.280.58
TB1-10.46512.5428.1016.137.203.221.44
CHI0-20.4587.1913.587.003.061.350.59

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]

2015-09-20

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 3

3 games into the season, I'm willing to say Ohio State has earned the #1 spot they've held in the real polls so far this year. There are still 28 teams at 3-0, so it's possible even with a win next week they could drop back again, but as the season wears on that's less and less likely, as the overall strength of schedule becomes closer to finalized. Michigan State at #3 also approximately agrees with the polls, but Iowa and Texas A&M are interlopers here.

Missouri is now up to #11, with an ugly win against Connecticut. But in my system, a win is a win, and Connecticut was previously ranked ahead of Missouri by one slot.

I'll probably track this until they lose a game, but LSU would actually be #1 in my rankings if they had played and won against McNeese State in week 1, a game that was canceled for weather. The effects are starting to ripple out to the SEC, too. Mississippi State would jump from #58 to #53 and Auburn would rise from #41 to #36. All other teams stay in place, unless they were leapfrogged by one of those three.


1Ohio State3-0
2Iowa3-0
3Michigan State3-0
4Texas A&M3-0
5Ohio3-0
6Oklahoma3-0
7Ole Miss3-0
8Notre Dame3-0
9Utah3-0
10Temple3-0
11Missouri3-0
12NC State3-0
13Indiana3-0
14Northwestern3-0
15UCLA3-0
16Florida State3-0
17Kansas State3-0
18Miami (FL)3-0
19Georgia3-0
20Florida3-0
21California3-0
22TCU3-0
23Arizona3-0
24Syracuse3-0
25Memphis3-0
26Clemson3-0
27Texas Tech3-0
28Oklahoma State3-0
29Alabama2-1
30LSU2-0
31West Virginia2-0
32BYU2-1
33Pittsburgh2-1
34Georgia Southern2-1
35Toledo2-0
36North Carolina2-1
37Baylor2-0
38Boise State2-1
39Tennessee2-1
40Penn State2-1
41Auburn2-1
42Virginia Tech2-1
43Kentucky2-1
44Wisconsin2-1
45Michigan2-1
46Western Kentucky2-1
47Georgia Tech2-1
48Connecticut2-1
49USC2-1
50Stanford2-1
51Oregon2-1
52Maryland2-1
53Arizona State2-1
54Middle Tennessee2-1
55Hawaii2-1
56Ball State2-1
57Washington2-1
58Mississippi State2-1
59Cincinnati2-1
60Oregon State2-1
61Duke2-1
62Marshall2-1
63Illinois2-1
64Houston2-0
65Minnesota2-1
66Navy2-0
67Charlotte2-1
68Air Force2-1
69Tulsa2-1
70Northern Illinois2-1
71Wake Forest2-1
72South Alabama2-1
73Southern Mississippi2-1
74Buffalo2-1
75Colorado2-1
76Florida Intl2-1
77Old Dominion2-1
78Washington State2-1
79Boston College2-1
80Rice2-1
81South Carolina1-2
82Iowa State1-2
83Bowling Green1-2
84Nebraska1-2
85Texas1-2
86Troy1-2
87Purdue1-2
88East Carolina1-2
89Louisiana Tech1-2
90Texas State1-2
91Fresno State1-2
92Virginia1-2
93Idaho1-2
94Utah State1-2
95Arkansas State1-2
96Western Michigan1-2
97Central Michigan1-2
98Arkansas1-2
99Miami (OH)1-2
100San Diego State1-2
101Louisiana Monroe1-1
102Nevada1-2
103Appalachian State1-1
104Louisiana Lafayette1-1
105SMU1-2
106Akron1-2
107Vanderbilt1-2
108South Florida1-2
109San Jose State1-2
110Tulane1-2
111Georgia State1-2
112Rutgers1-2
113New Mexico1-2
114Kent State1-2
115Eastern Michigan1-2
116Colorado State1-2
117UTEP1-2
118Texas San Antonio0-3
119Kansas0-2
120Massachusetts0-2
121Louisville0-3
122UNLV0-3
123Florida Atlantic0-3
124Army0-3
125North Texas0-2
126UCF0-3
127Wyoming0-3
128New Mexico State0-3

2015 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 Texas A&M

2015-09-18

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 2, Thursday

San Francisco over Denver

This particular point in the season is almost always the most misleading, when 2 teams have played their second game and everyone else has played one. I should really fix this, and I can think of how to do it. See, I calculate a team's strength based on points scored and allowed, then regress it back to .500 by an amount based on how early in the season it is. That keeps the uncertainty high until at least a few weeks in. My means of regression is based on the number of games the team has played. That means Denver (and KC, but they're already exactly at .500 because they've scored and allowed the same number of points) only get regressed 14/16 of the way to .500, and every other team gets regressed 15/16 of the way.

Basically, Denver's raw score before regressing is roughly equivalent to the other teams that are at .513, not .526, so more along the lines of Green Bay and New England, and actually lower than Buffalo and Miami within the AFC. They are 2-0, and have the division lead, but they perhaps shouldn't be as favored in the rest of their games as they are, which would lower their playoff and conference championship odds. The simple way to fix this would be to make the divisor not 16 but 256, and regress everyone based on the total number of games that have taken place in the league as a whole. This would even out the bumps and dips teams get for playing Thursday games, having late or early byes, or not playing until Monday, and by the time bye weeks are over, every week's final results would be the same as the current method.

TL;DR: Ignore my numbers today; they're garbage! But after Monday I'll be back to telling you exactly who's going to win this thing.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF1-00.53133.2654.7139.7321.0211.125.75
NYJ1-00.52927.4949.6234.9718.149.414.92
TEN1-00.52949.8458.5441.0521.2710.985.74
CIN1-00.52848.2057.6840.7321.0410.835.65
DEN2-00.52646.4464.1747.6724.6612.686.60
CAR1-00.52640.3755.6340.4521.1811.045.66
BUF1-00.52425.3746.6632.3816.598.514.40
MIA1-00.52124.8844.8830.9015.738.014.12
ARI1-00.52029.3351.0136.0318.589.604.86
GB1-00.51346.0356.3339.2019.9610.125.05
NE1-00.51322.2643.1729.2214.627.333.71
SD1-00.50828.2044.8330.5715.147.473.75
STL1-00.50427.0847.4732.5316.238.113.98
ATL1-00.50432.8749.5234.3717.148.534.18
DAL1-00.50241.7351.9335.1917.468.644.22
KC1-10.50015.7432.0420.249.854.792.37
NYG0-10.49819.0028.5417.758.734.292.08
PHI0-10.49621.2829.2518.028.834.322.09
SEA0-10.49610.3423.5614.657.193.531.70
DET0-10.49221.0630.4218.939.204.472.14
PIT0-10.48718.9625.4315.077.133.371.62
CHI0-10.48717.1426.7316.197.783.731.77
HOU0-10.48718.2824.8714.676.943.281.58
BAL0-10.48417.7624.3414.186.663.131.49
NO0-10.48014.2123.5514.416.833.241.51
WAS0-10.47917.9926.1015.797.463.521.64
IND0-10.47615.9922.2812.825.932.741.29
JAC0-10.47415.8923.0013.356.142.821.32
OAK0-10.4729.6218.0310.534.842.221.03
TB0-10.47112.5622.6313.666.352.951.35
CLE0-10.47115.0820.4711.655.332.431.13
MIN0-10.46915.7722.6213.106.062.801.28

[Week 1]

2015-09-17

My First Minor League Autograph

I should have waited and posted this autographed ball with the last two, but I had already written that post by the time I was getting this ball. This time I got to meet a true Cardinals prospect, who hasn't even been above AA yet, Alex Reyes. Hopefully he'll make it to the big team and not get traded away, which is always a possibility, especially when if need an extra arm or bat at the trade deadline next year.

Alex Reyes
It's not the most legible signature, but then, neither is mine when I sign a check.

With the Cardinals in the heat of a pennant race, even a AA guy can draw a crowd. I was 62nd in line, if the line ticket numbers are to be believed. I'm sure I'll take a bit more interest in the minor league news for the next year or two as Reyes rises through the system, and eventually gets a September callup.

2015-09-15

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 1

San Francisco over Tennessee

Week 1 finally finished with the now-standard Monday Night double header, and I can start prognosticating on who's going to lift the Lombardi trophy in February.  The NFL dropped the Roman numerals this year, so I guess I will too. I'm not putting any tacky gold accents on these posts though. Not yet anyway.

Here's a quick rundown taken from last year's introductory post.
Each year I project the Superbowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.
As always, the team with the biggest week 1 win, as measured by (points for)/(total game points) is currently the strongest, and generally is the favorite to win it all. This year that honor goes to San Francisco, and the opposite position goes to their opponent, Minnesota. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean much this early in the year, but it's a good start. I'd use the example that Minnesota was the projected champ after week 1 last year, but there were quite the extenuating circumstances that led to their fall to 7-9. Tennessee is the most likely team to win the AFC, thus they are projected to make the Superbowl over the slightly stronger Jets. That's because Tennessee is currently 1 game ahead of everyone else in the AFC South division, while everyone in the Jets' AFC East is 1-0.

Last year, St. Louis was that bottom team in week 1, losing to Minnesota, and I called for them to put in Austin Davis or make a crazy trade for a proven quarterback. They went with option 2, trading starter for starter and got Nick Foles for Sam Bradford. I've seen a few non-homer media projections of 9-7 and even 10-6 for a wildcard slot, so I'm hoping this year the pundits know what they are talking about. After beating Seattle, the football mood in St. Louis is as though we're already in the playoffs.

Just for good measure, I ran my simulations 1 billion times, taking almost 10 hours of CPU time (they get faster as the year goes on and fewer games have to be simulated)...and then found out my schedule was wrong. I had Green Bay playing Atlanta in week 16, instead of Arizona, which was probably a result of me trying to auto-complete the text entry to finish the schedule more quickly. So here I have a mere 100 million runs, because I didn't have another 10 hours to burn.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF1-00.53133.2654.7239.7421.0311.135.77
NYJ1-00.52927.5149.5835.0018.189.454.94
TEN1-00.52949.7858.4841.1021.3211.035.77
CIN1-00.52848.2357.6540.7721.1010.885.67
CAR1-00.52640.3655.6340.4521.1911.045.67
BUF1-00.52425.2346.4932.3016.588.524.41
MIA1-00.52124.8944.8330.9315.778.054.14
ARI1-00.51929.3251.0036.0218.579.594.86
DEN1-00.51631.6549.1834.5017.448.774.47
KC1-00.51329.7647.5033.0216.598.304.21
GB1-00.51346.0156.2939.1619.9310.115.06
NE1-00.51322.3743.1929.2914.687.373.73
SD1-00.50828.7544.7830.6615.217.523.77
STL1-00.50427.0847.4632.5216.228.113.99
ATL1-00.50432.8649.5234.3717.148.534.19
DAL1-00.50241.7051.9135.1917.478.644.23
NYG0-10.49819.0128.5517.778.754.302.09
PHI0-10.49621.2829.2718.038.834.322.09
SEA0-10.49610.3423.5814.667.193.531.71
DET0-10.49221.0730.4118.929.204.462.14
PIT0-10.48718.9925.4215.097.163.391.63
CHI0-10.48717.1526.7316.207.773.731.77
HOU0-10.48718.2824.8714.686.963.301.59
BAL0-10.48417.6924.2114.196.683.141.50
NO0-10.48114.2123.5614.426.843.241.52
WAS0-10.47918.0126.1215.807.473.521.65
IND0-10.47616.0722.3512.865.962.761.30
JAC0-10.47415.8722.9613.366.162.841.33
OAK0-10.4729.8418.0310.574.862.231.04
TB0-10.47112.5622.6413.676.362.951.35
CLE0-10.47115.0920.4611.665.342.451.14
MIN0-10.46915.7722.6213.096.052.791.27

2015-09-13

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 2

In the early going, Texas A&M has taken over the #1 spot in my rankings. I swear I don't have an SEC bias built in to my system. BYU's two big wins have moved them up to the #2 spot, with NC State and Temple rounding out the playoff. Of course, with 48 2-0 teams, those playoff spots are still very much up for grabs.

My favorite team, Missouri, is down at #30, but still among the 2-0 teams that are all very close to each other at the top.

A few teams changed names on ESPN's site this year, so a few FBS teams were missing after I filtered the list last week. I may go back and fix that. They were subtle changes like Southern Miss to Southern Mississippi, no longer hyphenating the two Louisiana schools, and North Carolina State now abbreviated. But this week we have the first full 128 team rankings anyway, with LSU finally on the board. Speaking of LSU, with a win last week against McNeese State, they would have been the #2 team right now.



1Texas A&M2-0
2BYU2-0
3NC State2-0
4Temple2-0
5Ohio State2-0
6Kentucky2-0
7Florida State2-0
8Iowa2-0
9Alabama2-0
10Utah2-0
11Ole Miss2-0
12Oklahoma2-0
13Ohio2-0
14Notre Dame2-0
15Clemson2-0
16Western Kentucky2-0
17TCU2-0
18Baylor2-0
19Auburn2-0
20Memphis2-0
21Illinois2-0
22West Virginia2-0
23Florida2-0
24Georgia2-0
25California2-0
26Air Force2-0
27Miami (FL)2-0
28Pittsburgh2-0
29Connecticut2-0
30Missouri2-0
31Duke2-0
32Georgia Tech2-0
33Syracuse2-0
34Northern Illinois2-0
T-35Kansas State2-0
T-35Arizona2-0
37Tulsa2-0
38Oklahoma State2-0
39USC2-0
40UCLA2-0
T-41Charlotte2-0
T-41Northwestern2-0
43Michigan State2-0
44Old Dominion2-0
45Indiana2-0
46Boston College2-0
47Houston2-0
48Texas Tech2-0
49Tennessee1-1
50Arizona State1-1
51Troy1-1
52Marshall1-1
53East Carolina1-1
54Boise State1-1
55LSU1-0
56Penn State1-1
57South Carolina1-1
58Texas State1-1
59Bowling Green1-1
60Hawaii1-1
61Ball State1-1
62Toledo1-0
63Texas1-1
64Wisconsin1-1
65Washington State1-1
66Minnesota1-1
67Purdue1-1
68Nebraska1-1
69Iowa State1-1
70Michigan1-1
71San Diego State1-1
72Louisiana Tech1-1
73San Jose State1-1
74Wake Forest1-1
75Maryland1-1
76Washington1-1
77Mississippi State1-1
78Buffalo1-1
T-79North Carolina1-1
T-79Cincinnati1-1
81Fresno State1-1
82Virginia Tech1-1
83SMU1-1
84Louisiana Lafayette1-1
85Louisiana Monroe1-1
86South Florida1-1
87Utah State1-1
88Middle Tennessee1-1
89Appalachian State1-1
90Georgia Southern1-1
91Navy1-0
92Georgia State1-1
93Kent State1-1
94Eastern Michigan1-1
95Central Michigan1-1
96Nevada1-1
97Colorado1-1
98New Mexico1-1
99Rice1-1
100Stanford1-1
101Florida Intl1-1
102Oregon1-1
103Colorado State1-1
104Arkansas1-1
105Miami (OH)1-1
106Rutgers1-1
107South Alabama1-1
108Oregon State1-1
109Southern Mississippi1-1
110Vanderbilt0-2
111Akron0-2
112Idaho0-2
113Virginia0-2
114Florida Atlantic0-2
115Tulane0-2
116Texas San Antonio0-2
117Arkansas State0-2
T-118Louisville0-2
T-118Kansas0-2
120UNLV0-2
121North Texas0-1
122Massachusetts0-1
123New Mexico State0-2
124Western Michigan0-2
125Wyoming0-2
126Army0-2
127UTEP0-2
128UCF0-2


2015 History and #1s
Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0

2015-09-11

eBay Wins #193

Today's eBay lot involved one card I ordered, and two sent along as either a bonus or insurance against dinging the purchased card.

1992 Topps #139 Jeff Innis
1992 Topps #143 Paul Gibson
1996 Topps #167 Toby Wright
I've only got a few Rams cards in my collection, but I figured for a penny I'd go ahead and bid on this Toby Wright card that was mistakenly put into the "Baseball Cards" section of eBay.

I'm surprised the seller bothered with the Jeff Innis and Paul Gibson packing material cards given the price, but I'm happy to have them. They're even in good shape, unlike some dinged, bent, and creased late 80s cards I've seen used for that purpose. A full 1992 Topps factory set was one of the first big purchases I ever made when I started collecting, so these two will wind up in my duplicates list for trade.


eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought3368
Total Spent$52.16
Per Card1.549 cents
Change-0.001 cents

2015-09-09

Labor Day Autographs

Thanks to a last second cancellation, a friend of mine had a spare ticket to the Cardinals game versus the Cubs on Labor Day. It was supposed to be a hot day, but the weather turned a bit overcast and we were shaded in our 2nd-row-from-the-top seats for most of the game. But even with the nice weather, the game went bad quickly, with the Cardinals surrendering 8 runs in the first three innings. I did get to see every Cardinals position player get into the game, and a great 5-4-3 double play, from our backup catcher (Tony Cruz) playing third, to our backup 1B/3B (Mark Reynolds) playing second (for the 5th time ever!), to our trade deadline pickup (Brandon Moss) at first.

But the day got better for me, as I traveled to a local mall to an autograph signing featuring Stephen Piscotty and Greg Garcia that evening.

Stephen Piscotty 55
35 Greg Garcia

Piscotty's been heralded as the second coming of Albert Pujols for the last year, so the group there to see him was quite large. There's lots of excitement in St. Louis for him and his future. Garcia didn't have nearly as many people there for his autograph, and in fact since I was near the end of the line with a ticket for each, after about 15 minutes they actually came and got me and bumped me up to the front of the shared line so Greg could get finished.

This brings my autographed ball count up to 16. Soon I'm going to have start organizing them a little better than just stacking them on my shelf.

2015-09-07

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

Yes, it's that time of year again, when the college football madness begins.

What follows is an explanation mostly copied from 2014's week 1 post.

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers".  As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated.  The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that.  I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength.  I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop.  So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001.  I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings.  It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team.  I then filter the final results to only the 128 FBS schools.

In week 1, there are only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week!

This year the FBS lost a team, and gained a team. You've probably heard about the controversy around UAB's program, but they're supposed to be back in 2017. Joining the fray to round out the 128 FBS teams is UNC-Charlotte.

I found one bug in my software this year, which didn't affect the final rankings in 2014, but could have jostled some teams around in the early weeks. If you wagered anything based on my rankings, my apologies. I only found it because there's one team, Montana, that has played two games this year, while all others have only played one, with North Dakota State enjoying a bye week after their pre-week 1 matchup. Sorting is hard when you roll your own algorithm like an idiot.

Let's get to the silliest rankings of the year, week 1!

1Oklahoma State1-0
1Wake Forest1-0
1Ball State1-0
1Georgia Tech1-0
1Connecticut1-0
1Western Kentucky1-0
1Utah1-0
1TCU1-0
1Ohio1-0
1Utah State1-0
1Duke1-0
1Arizona1-0
1Nevada1-0
1San Jose State1-0
1Fresno State1-0
1Hawaii1-0
1Charlotte1-0
1Michigan State1-0
1Baylor1-0
1Syracuse1-0
1Oregon State1-0
1Boise State1-0
1Georgia1-0
1Ole Miss1-0
1Northwestern1-0
1Navy1-0
1Rutgers1-0
1Iowa1-0
1Maryland1-0
1Clemson1-0
1Pittsburgh1-0
1Boston College1-0
1Illinois1-0
1Air Force1-0
1Buffalo1-0
1Miami (OH)1-0
1Appalachian State1-0
1Arkansas1-0
1Auburn1-0
1UCLA1-0
1Texas Tech1-0
1BYU1-0
1Old Dominion1-0
1Temple1-0
1Tulsa1-0
1Indiana1-0
1Missouri1-0
1Colorado State1-0
1Tennessee1-0
1Rice1-0
1California1-0
1Miami (FL)1-0
1East Carolina1-0
1South Alabama1-0
1South Florida1-0
1Memphis1-0
1Louisiana Tech1-0
1Middle Tennessee1-0
1Oklahoma1-0
1Texas A&M1-0
1Kentucky1-0
1Kansas State1-0
1Notre Dame1-0
1West Virginia1-0
1Florida1-0
1Northern Illinois1-0
1San Diego State1-0
1Alabama1-0
1Oregon1-0
1Iowa State1-0
1Houston1-0
1New Mexico1-0
1Cincinnati1-0
1Florida State1-0
1Mississippi State1-0
1USC1-0
1Marshall1-0
1Ohio State1-0
1South Carolina1-0
80Troy0-1
80Vanderbilt0-1
80North Carolina0-1
80Kansas0-1
80Akron0-1
80Arizona State0-1
80Michigan0-1
80Texas0-1
80Colorado0-1
80Georgia Southern0-1
80New Mexico State0-1
80UNLV0-1
80Washington State0-1
80Georgia State0-1
80Wisconsin0-1
80Kent State0-1
80Minnesota0-1
80Western Michigan0-1
80Central Michigan0-1
80Texas State0-1
80SMU0-1
80Arkansas State0-1
80Purdue0-1
80Idaho0-1
80Virginia Tech0-1
80UTEP0-1
80Louisville0-1
80Virginia0-1
80Army0-1
80Nebraska0-1
80Eastern Michigan0-1
80UCF0-1
80Penn State0-1
80Washington0-1
80Florida Atlantic0-1
80Tulane0-1
80Bowling Green0-1
80Wyoming0-1
80Stanford0-1

2015-09-05

eBay Wins #192

If you keep tabs on my ramblings here - and hopefully you've got something better than that to do - you'll notice I've gone the wrong direction here. In my last eBay post I began posting the oldest of the penny cards I thought I had, but it turns out there was another stack of them.

1982 Topps #471 Royals Future Stars: Hammaker/Jones/Motley

Thus, I have this glorious 1982 with the Royals in their powder blues. Despite the Future Stars designation, out of these three, only Atlee Hammaker made an All-Star game, in 1983.



eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought3365
Total Spent$52.15
Per Card1.55 cents
Change0 cents

2015-09-03

Zistle Trade #19

With today's trade I've filled in 7 more Cardinals cards in my collection, even though only one is actually pictured in uniform. I think I added the Fleer cards to my want list recently, possibly when I got the last of the uniformed Cardinals I needed in another trade. I should really just put the full sets from junk wax years on my list to make things easier, and pick and choose from the more rare sets.


1990 Donruss #697 Mark McGwire
1990 Fleer
#7 Mike Gallego
#67 Ken Oberkfell
#77 Pat Borders
#84 Tom Henke
#207 Gregg Jefferies
1993 Studio #90 Gregg Jefferies
The Donruss card is the error version of Mark McGwire's All-Star card. As you may know, some of them were put out with a subtle error, where the stats on the back are for All-Star games, but the stats header says "Recent Major League Performance". Corrected versions were issued, and I have so many cards from the set, I decided I'd try to complete a full base set, with all versions of the error cards included.

2015-09-01

eBay Wins #191

I've looped back around to old cards with this eBay post. Perhaps a quick explanation is in order.

I won many eBay auctions for penny cards, which I was detailing one lot at a time. Eventually, I was having trouble keeping track, so I threw every penny card into the same box, and sorted it by year and set. The ones that cost different amounts were kept separate so they could be accounted for properly. Then, rather that posting an auction win at a time, I just went through the penny cards one set at a time. I started with the oldest cards, and added new wins to the box as they came in, if they were newer than my most recent eBay post. So now, I'm back to the ones that came in just a bit too late to make the last post of the set, such as these 1986s that came in some time after eBay Wins #123. The stack is much shorter now, so it shouldn't take me over a year to get back to present day.

1986 Topps
#127 Jack Howell
#197 Enos Cabell
Neither of these guys were ever Cardinals, but the cards are both new to my collection, which is a high enough bar to make any penny card worth it. These cards bring my 1986 set up to 129 unique cards.


eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought3364
Total Spent$52.14
Per Card1.55 cents
Change0 cents