2016-12-18

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 15, Saturday

New England over Dallas

In my head, I thought the NFL had moved away from Saturday games except when there are holiday conflicts, like Christmas being on a Sunday this year. A quick check proves that not to be true, since there was a single Saturday game in Week 15 and 16 last year.

Normally I post these numbers the day after gameday at 10pm, but I've got college football numbers to post tonight. And, this way the numbers are up before today's games. I've got a system here, and the NFL's messing with it.

Miami stayed in the race for the AFC East with a win over the Jets, but New England can clinch today with a win. Miami's win eliminated 5-8 San Diego, because now it will take at least 9 wins to make the playoffs as an AFC wildcard this year. Kansas City and Oakland can also clinch playoff spots with wins today. Dallas, Detroit, and the Giants need some help, and Arizona, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Cincinnati, and Carolina are all on the brink of elimination, and would be out with a loss today, or wins by Tampa and Atlanta, and possibly some other combinations.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE11-20.72599.4199.9199.7466.9143.2625.73
DAL11-20.69895.81++97.9963.3037.6920.82
SEA9-4-10.649++++84.7648.0424.2312.07
ATL8-50.62676.0189.9359.0628.6714.006.64
PIT8-50.62572.3580.5747.5124.0911.195.42
DEN8-50.6191.2844.1424.5510.385.222.49
KC10-30.60067.4098.6683.5042.1318.038.27
BAL7-60.59727.3933.4117.247.963.531.61
MIN7-60.5823.4021.8810.814.331.990.85
OAK10-30.56731.3298.4769.5130.1012.175.18
DET9-40.55879.0686.7956.2823.589.573.89
BUF6-70.546-2.140.930.300.140.06
ARI5-7-10.546-0.100.040.010.010.00
GB7-60.53917.5325.4112.264.491.810.71
PHI5-80.539-0.000.000.000.000.00
TEN7-60.52945.7846.7821.177.792.971.15
NYG9-40.5274.1978.9236.8813.265.251.98
WAS7-5-10.524-42.7518.356.332.560.96
NO5-80.5120.150.160.080.030.010.00
SD5-80.505------
MIA9-50.5020.5940.7017.405.462.140.78
CIN5-7-10.4980.260.260.110.040.010.01
TB8-50.49423.7353.9423.447.932.881.00
IND6-70.4916.046.232.570.830.290.10
CAR5-80.4520.110.120.050.010.000.00
HOU7-60.39448.1848.7315.774.021.050.28
CHI3-100.344------
JAC2-110.309------
NYJ4-100.270------
SF1-120.263------
LA4-100.219------
CLE0-130.212------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 15, Thursday] New England over Dallas

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