2016-11-18

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Dallas over New England

I heard an interesting stat on Thursday, I believe on the Pardon the Interruption podcast, that no team that started 3-7 (or worse I assume) has ever made the playoffs. This was in reference to Carolina playing and having a chance to fall to that level last night, just one season after making the Superbowl. They won, so I guess they won't be making history if they do make the playoffs. I still have them at just a 6.6% chance. 3-7 does seem to be a pretty good cutoff though, as I show the 4 win teams with a 3.2% to 33% of a playoff spot, while the 3-7 or worse teams range from effectively 0 to 0.36%.

This billion simulations managed to get Cleveland to the Superbowl at least once, but they never won it. At the other extreme, they stay at 13.68% likely to finish 0-16.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
DAL8-10.65685.6898.5292.7356.4833.7619.26
NE7-20.64993.3897.4293.4457.0933.9718.85
PHI5-40.6343.2547.9929.7515.518.684.75
DEN7-30.60624.1674.1453.4628.6514.937.62
ARI4-4-10.59518.4235.9823.8812.236.083.07
SEA6-2-10.58280.2588.4774.3339.2418.629.18
KC7-20.58244.6883.2064.2933.8216.447.98
BUF4-50.5641.1018.1210.314.722.281.07
MIN5-40.55948.4556.1633.6415.717.203.38
ATL6-40.55778.9780.6849.1523.2510.544.93
BAL5-40.55460.9062.4333.9115.617.343.36
OAK7-20.54031.1180.3156.3926.0511.525.11
TEN5-50.52420.9827.8914.346.112.661.14
SD4-60.5230.053.771.940.790.350.15
PIT4-50.51629.1632.9815.776.632.871.20
WAS5-3-10.5062.5239.0719.367.563.191.33
NO4-60.4989.3711.325.282.110.850.35
DET5-40.49837.0545.6824.399.893.931.61
CAR4-60.4964.686.573.001.170.480.19
MIA5-40.4965.4825.6814.305.832.420.97
NYG6-30.4958.5558.9330.8111.834.811.96
GB4-50.48014.1617.488.043.051.180.46
IND4-50.47111.4114.106.172.280.880.33
TB4-50.4526.999.564.111.470.530.20
CIN3-5-10.4519.9410.164.001.420.530.19
HOU6-30.43667.4369.5131.5910.953.791.31
LA4-50.4111.343.221.420.470.150.05
JAC2-70.3750.190.200.060.020.010.00
NYJ3-70.3640.030.090.030.010.000.00
SF1-80.3440.000.000.000.000.000.00
CHI2-70.3420.330.360.110.030.010.00
CLE0-100.2900.000.000.000.000.00-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England

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