Superbowl LI Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Dallas over New England

I heard an interesting stat on Thursday, I believe on the Pardon the Interruption podcast, that no team that started 3-7 (or worse I assume) has ever made the playoffs. This was in reference to Carolina playing and having a chance to fall to that level last night, just one season after making the Superbowl. They won, so I guess they won't be making history if they do make the playoffs. I still have them at just a 6.6% chance. 3-7 does seem to be a pretty good cutoff though, as I show the 4 win teams with a 3.2% to 33% of a playoff spot, while the 3-7 or worse teams range from effectively 0 to 0.36%.

This billion simulations managed to get Cleveland to the Superbowl at least once, but they never won it. At the other extreme, they stay at 13.68% likely to finish 0-16.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DAL	8-1	0.656	85.68	98.52	92.73	56.48	33.76	19.26
NE	7-2	0.649	93.38	97.42	93.44	57.09	33.97	18.85
PHI	5-4	0.634	3.25	47.99	29.75	15.51	8.68	4.75
DEN	7-3	0.606	24.16	74.14	53.46	28.65	14.93	7.62
ARI	4-4-1	0.595	18.42	35.98	23.88	12.23	6.08	3.07
SEA	6-2-1	0.582	80.25	88.47	74.33	39.24	18.62	9.18
KC	7-2	0.582	44.68	83.20	64.29	33.82	16.44	7.98
BUF	4-5	0.564	1.10	18.12	10.31	4.72	2.28	1.07
MIN	5-4	0.559	48.45	56.16	33.64	15.71	7.20	3.38
ATL	6-4	0.557	78.97	80.68	49.15	23.25	10.54	4.93
BAL	5-4	0.554	60.90	62.43	33.91	15.61	7.34	3.36
OAK	7-2	0.540	31.11	80.31	56.39	26.05	11.52	5.11
TEN	5-5	0.524	20.98	27.89	14.34	6.11	2.66	1.14
SD	4-6	0.523	0.05	3.77	1.94	0.79	0.35	0.15
PIT	4-5	0.516	29.16	32.98	15.77	6.63	2.87	1.20
WAS	5-3-1	0.506	2.52	39.07	19.36	7.56	3.19	1.33
NO	4-6	0.498	9.37	11.32	5.28	2.11	0.85	0.35
DET	5-4	0.498	37.05	45.68	24.39	9.89	3.93	1.61
CAR	4-6	0.496	4.68	6.57	3.00	1.17	0.48	0.19
MIA	5-4	0.496	5.48	25.68	14.30	5.83	2.42	0.97
NYG	6-3	0.495	8.55	58.93	30.81	11.83	4.81	1.96
GB	4-5	0.480	14.16	17.48	8.04	3.05	1.18	0.46
IND	4-5	0.471	11.41	14.10	6.17	2.28	0.88	0.33
TB	4-5	0.452	6.99	9.56	4.11	1.47	0.53	0.20
CIN	3-5-1	0.451	9.94	10.16	4.00	1.42	0.53	0.19
HOU	6-3	0.436	67.43	69.51	31.59	10.95	3.79	1.31
LA	4-5	0.411	1.34	3.22	1.42	0.47	0.15	0.05
JAC	2-7	0.375	0.19	0.20	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.00
NYJ	3-7	0.364	0.03	0.09	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
SF	1-8	0.344	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CHI	2-7	0.342	0.33	0.36	0.11	0.03	0.01	0.00
CLE	0-10	0.290	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England