Superbowl LI Projection, Week 1

San Francisco over Houston

Everyone has played a game, so let's start projecting. We're back to Roman numerals this year, though I think LI still looks odd for a Superbowl and they should stick to Arabic numerals until 54/LIV or so

 Here's a quick rundown originally taken from 2014's introductory post.

Each year I project the Superbowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.

I no longer have a home team to follow, as the Rams have moved to Los Angeles, as I'm sure you're aware. I'm honestly a little conflicted. I'd like to root for the players and coaches that I rooted for less than a year ago, but I'd really like to root against anything Stan Kroenke touches, so for now I'm just watching for some good football games. The networks will prioritize the Chiefs, Bears, and Rams on Sunday afternoons from what I read.

San Francisco is the Week 1 favorite for the second year in a row, but that's because once again they had the biggest week 1 win. The way my system works, a shutout gives them the same resulting strength, whether it was a 2-0 or 100-0 win. They'll eventually give up some points, and things will smooth out. In any case, that's why teams are regressed back to .500 pretty sharply in the first few weeks, and less so over time. All the way at the bottom, the Rams are still in just slightly better shape than they were in 2014 Week 1.

A lot of the other games this week were very close, so you'll see a lot of teams clustered around .500

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	1-0	0.531	42.79	58.14	42.16	22.20	11.67	6.14
PHI	1-0	0.529	40.43	54.41	38.77	20.29	10.59	5.54
PIT	1-0	0.527	32.90	51.81	37.14	19.48	10.23	5.30
BAL	1-0	0.523	31.96	51.73	36.89	19.19	9.98	5.14
HOU	1-0	0.520	43.96	54.70	38.63	19.97	10.29	5.26
MIN	1-0	0.518	31.98	49.30	34.41	17.61	8.99	4.62
TB	1-0	0.511	43.43	54.25	37.35	18.82	9.46	4.79
KC	1-0	0.509	31.60	48.26	33.47	16.92	8.53	4.27
SEA	1-0	0.508	31.86	46.97	32.10	16.08	8.05	4.05
GB	1-0	0.507	28.61	45.37	30.84	15.42	7.69	3.86
DET	1-0	0.505	28.33	45.14	30.61	15.22	7.55	3.78
NE	1-0	0.504	40.22	49.94	33.86	16.90	8.43	4.18
NYG	1-0	0.502	33.33	47.99	32.34	15.98	7.90	3.93
DEN	1-0	0.502	28.33	44.39	30.34	15.10	7.50	3.71
CIN	1-0	0.502	25.50	44.32	30.10	14.97	7.46	3.69
OAK	1-0	0.501	28.10	44.11	30.03	14.93	7.40	3.65
NO	0-1	0.499	20.61	30.15	18.90	9.26	4.54	2.24
NYJ	0-1	0.498	21.70	29.69	18.39	9.05	4.45	2.18
CAR	0-1	0.498	20.56	30.06	18.80	9.19	4.49	2.21
DAL	0-1	0.498	13.84	24.71	15.24	7.46	3.65	1.80
ARI	0-1	0.496	15.86	27.54	17.25	8.42	4.10	2.01
IND	0-1	0.495	19.47	28.85	18.06	8.85	4.33	2.11
JAC	0-1	0.493	19.23	28.66	17.89	8.72	4.25	2.06
MIA	0-1	0.492	20.79	29.54	18.37	8.92	4.33	2.09
SD	0-1	0.491	11.97	23.54	14.55	7.06	3.43	1.66
ATL	0-1	0.489	15.41	24.31	14.67	7.04	3.38	1.63
TEN	0-1	0.482	17.34	26.18	15.98	7.61	3.62	1.71
CHI	0-1	0.480	11.09	21.69	13.09	6.18	2.91	1.38
BUF	0-1	0.477	17.29	24.15	14.27	6.72	3.16	1.48
WAS	0-1	0.473	12.39	21.44	12.71	5.90	2.74	1.28
CLE	0-1	0.471	9.64	20.11	12.04	5.60	2.61	1.21
LA	0-1	0.469	9.49	18.54	10.76	4.95	2.28	1.06