2013-09-30

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 4, Sunday

Kansas City over Seattle

The two participants stay the same, but KC takes back the top spot from Seattle. Seattle is currently so far and above the rest of the NFC that they're sitting at a 95% chance of making the playoffs, and 28.5% chance of winning the conference.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC4-00.61049.72479.05461.84034.32318.98210.546
SEA4-00.60687.99095.00084.95049.81428.50115.284
IND3-10.59954.26067.27848.34126.20514.0267.648
DEN4-00.59644.32376.93858.38331.31916.7989.100
NE4-00.57356.62877.66659.87830.95015.4848.025
CAR1-20.56925.42050.69032.69016.9608.7834.379
NO3-00.56868.99783.88464.83934.63117.8688.877
TEN3-10.56035.71657.35738.10618.9179.3054.704
MIA3-00.54333.56062.30943.62820.8409.7484.763
DAL2-20.53762.96767.80542.21220.3449.7494.542
DET3-10.53449.12572.72050.75024.69911.7715.454
CHI3-10.52033.12961.63040.16118.8158.6903.904
GB1-20.51214.38232.05518.8548.5703.9141.729
SD2-20.5115.18816.6799.1684.0411.8050.823
BUF2-20.5086.17019.74610.8974.7572.0760.941
CIN2-20.50031.29434.97117.7527.5513.2051.430
BAL2-20.49035.69738.34118.6147.7323.2101.398
MIN1-30.4873.36412.4146.4082.7311.1920.497
CLE2-20.48329.71632.77715.5976.3832.6111.121
ATL1-30.4814.84016.1198.1603.4491.4870.611
HOU2-20.4729.77918.1049.2463.7551.5220.636
SF2-20.4665.80631.21115.4626.2492.6081.036
WAS1-30.46215.30918.4328.6123.4491.4050.552
OAK1-30.4560.7653.9821.8050.6940.2720.110
ARI2-20.4555.09423.02011.1414.3941.7860.690
NYJ2-20.4543.64210.7335.2182.0040.7720.309
PHI1-30.44218.70423.69511.0874.2461.6470.616
TB0-40.4250.7422.6041.1100.4070.1540.055
PIT0-40.4253.2933.6001.3640.4780.1690.063
STL1-30.4141.1104.9272.0870.7470.2770.097
NYG0-40.3923.0203.7931.4760.4930.1690.055
JAC0-40.3780.2440.4640.1630.0510.0160.005

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]

2013 World Series Projection, September 30

St. Louis over Boston

Once again I've put together the strengths of each team based on runs scored and allowed, and done the math on each team's odds of advancing to each round of the playoffs. The length of the series is taken into account as well. Once I found out we'd have a play-in for the play-in game, I had to modify my software a bit, but the numbers still appear to sum up correctly, so I'll call it good.

TeamStrengthLDSLCSWSWin
STL0.6228100.0061.6836.4619.77
BOS0.6184100.0061.5433.0618.23
DET0.6100100.0053.3328.1214.97
ATL0.6030100.0060.0930.4115.13
OAK0.5930100.0046.6722.8511.29
CIN0.577453.4722.0310.784.76
TEX0.565327.1410.814.521.96
CLE0.554148.8618.457.272.97
LAD0.5499100.0039.9115.585.96
PIT0.543246.5316.296.762.50
TB0.535022.567.762.751.02

I do have one disclaimer, though. Cleveland shows a lower strength than Texas. However, if Texas and Tampa Bay burn their #1 starters on the pre-play-in play-in, Cleveland's chances should logically improve. These percentages really reflect an average matchup chance, and get more accurate the longer a series is. But a Cleveland-Texas matchup would feature Cleveland's best against Texas's second best, which may or may not tip the scales for Cleveland. Likewise, Boston and St. Louis's chances should be higher, because they'll both have at least a 1-starter advantage over their wildcard opponent.

But in the end, any team can beat any other team in a 1-game playoff. The 100-loss Miami Marlins can even no-hit the playoff-bound Detroit Tigers.

2013-09-29

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 5

Once again, my #1 team lost, as LSU fell to Georgia. On a selfish note, this makes the SEC East a bit tougher for Mizzou now, not that I think we had an excellent chance of winning it.

Ohio State snuck up on me and surprised me at #1, though that's largely because they're the only 5-0 team. Still, they've got 5 wins and no one else does.

Both Missouri and Virginia Tech (Hi, Spankee) got votes in the polls last week, though not enough to be ranked. This week, with another win each, we might see them crack the top 25, but probably not quite up to #9 and #11 where I have them.

USC stole a bit of the spotlight this week by firing Lane Kiffin. I only find that somewhat interesting because, after the Rams Thursday Night Football loss, and subsequent local media meltdown, I had a discussion with a friend about firing coaches. We looked up some records, and Mike Martz, seemingly hated by St. Louis fans and media (and ownership), was far better by pretty much any W-L measure than Steve Spagnolo or Scott Linehan. He took the Rams to the playoffs 2 years in a row, going 1-2 in those games, and was fired during the next season. Officially it was at the end, but there was a health leave and some ownership interference; it was clear he was out long before he was out. Yet the Rams were so bad for Linehan, if Spagnolo had taken the Rams to the playoffs even once, he'd have locked up his job for at least a few more years.

Our - probably obvious - conclusion was, it all comes down to expectations. The same can be said at USC. The "real" rankings don't go past 25, or 35 if you extrapolate all the votes, but I've got USC at #47, meaning they're better than nearly 2/3 of teams. If Southern Miss, 0-for-2012, was 3-2 this year, the new coach would already have a 5 year extension. Of course, USC has likely recruited some talent with better potential than other teams, especially being in a big conference and having relative success lately. So the quick hook was likely justified in this case.

The NFL and NCAA are vastly different in terms of signing players and competitive balance, but here's a short but interesting Freakonomics article on the effect of firing the head coach.

Now, on to the rankings.

1Ohio State5-0
2Alabama4-0
3Florida State4-0
4Clemson4-0
5Washington4-0
6Texas A&M4-1
7Stanford4-0
8Oregon4-0
9Missouri4-0
10Oklahoma4-0
11Virginia Tech4-1
12Northern Illinois4-0
13Fresno State4-0
14Texas Tech4-0
15LSU4-1
16Northwestern4-0
17Louisville4-0
18Maryland4-0
19Minnesota4-1
20Houston4-0
21Bowling Green4-1
22Iowa4-1
23Oregon State4-1
24Michigan4-0
25Georgia3-1
26Ball State4-1
27Miami (FL)4-0
28Arizona3-1
29Arizona State3-1
30Auburn3-1
31Washington State3-2
32South Carolina3-1
33Baylor3-0
34Pittsburgh3-1
35Florida3-1
36Oklahoma State3-1
37West Virginia3-2
38Nebraska3-1
39Utah3-1
40UCLA3-0
41Texas State3-1
42Rutgers3-1
43Georgia Tech3-1
44Penn State3-1
45Illinois3-1
46Tennessee3-2
47USC3-2
48Ohio3-1
49East Carolina3-1
50UCF3-1
51Ole Miss3-1
52Arkansas3-2
53Duke3-2
54North Carolina State3-1
55Boise State3-2
56UNLV3-2
57Notre Dame3-2
58Wisconsin3-2
59Tulane3-2
60Michigan State3-1
61Cincinnati3-1
62Utah State3-2
63Wyoming3-2
64Western Kentucky3-2
65Nevada3-2
66South Alabama2-2
67Navy2-1
68Vanderbilt3-2
69Colorado2-1
70North Texas2-2
71TCU2-2
72Boston College2-2
73Middle Tennessee3-2
74Mississippi State2-2
75Indiana2-2
76Syracuse2-2
77Marshall2-2
78Toledo2-3
79Rice2-2
80Virginia2-2
81Brigham Young2-2
82Kent State2-3
83Louisiana-Lafayette2-2
84Buffalo2-2
85Kansas State2-2
86UTSA2-3
87Louisiana-Monroe2-3
88Kansas2-1
89Texas2-2
90Wake Forest2-3
91Arkansas State2-3
92Colorado State2-3
93Army2-3
94California1-3
95Troy2-3
96Southern Methodist1-3
97Iowa State1-2
98North Carolina1-3
99San Jose State1-3
100Akron1-4
101Memphis1-2
102Eastern Michigan1-3
103San Diego State1-3
104Tulsa1-3
105UAB1-3
106Kentucky1-3
107Purdue1-4
108Central Michigan1-4
109New Mexico1-3
110Idaho1-4
111Louisiana Tech1-4
112Florida Atlantic1-4
113Air Force1-4
114Florida International0-4
115Hawaii0-4
116Connecticut0-4
117Southern Miss0-4
118UTEP1-3
119Temple0-4
120Massachusetts0-4
121Western Michigan0-5
122South Florida0-4
123Miami (OH)0-4
124New Mexico State0-5


2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4

2013-09-27

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 4, Thursday

Seattle over Kansas City

Nothing much changes at the top when 2 1-3 teams play.

I can't help but think the Rams strategy, Project Don't-Replace-Steven-Jackson, isn't quite working out. At least we're still better than Jacksonville for now, who we'll play next week.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA3-00.58883.77091.56577.48143.46923.96613.092
KC3-00.57548.81273.25256.38430.63216.5778.724
CAR1-20.56923.75748.89331.17816.2918.5474.506
NO3-00.56866.68882.82363.41833.80317.7209.311
DEN3-00.56642.58670.59452.73028.01314.8597.680
NE3-00.56347.17370.76053.42428.42114.8957.665
DAL2-10.55165.72373.39049.91525.28312.6946.459
IND2-10.54544.63154.13135.68317.9979.0384.482
MIA3-00.54336.24863.43445.63123.10111.5785.724
CHI3-00.53354.06274.54053.75026.36812.6956.237
DET2-10.52430.33254.88334.69916.4897.7933.749
CIN2-10.52244.02351.84332.11015.3827.3393.472
BAL2-10.51442.04849.83730.04114.1626.6483.092
NYJ2-10.51312.97832.70419.9099.3894.4152.052
GB1-20.51213.69930.76617.7168.1603.7721.772
TEN2-10.51027.92040.73924.86111.6125.4102.496
SD1-20.4955.05113.0047.2363.2901.5030.670
ATL1-20.4947.94724.15112.8305.6862.5451.151
PHI1-20.48824.39735.07418.9748.2763.6211.616
BUF1-20.4843.60011.7216.3302.8001.2400.540
HOU2-10.47824.88834.36319.3148.4133.6591.574
OAK1-20.4783.55111.4876.0362.6311.1510.495
MIN0-30.4771.9067.7153.7811.6020.6890.300
SF2-20.4668.71532.01316.0506.6382.7911.184
CLE1-20.46010.40913.9316.7932.8221.1760.484
ARI1-20.4565.60317.9088.6073.4811.4270.592
WAS0-30.4526.0188.6053.9191.5630.6320.260
TB0-30.4391.6086.0952.7261.0580.4180.167
PIT0-30.4343.5204.7122.0670.8030.3150.122
NYG0-30.4243.8626.0072.5910.9660.3640.140
STL1-30.4141.9125.5722.3650.8670.3240.122
JAC0-30.4112.5623.4881.4510.5320.1970.072

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]

2013-09-26

eBay Wins #87

I don't usually buy enough of any one product to come anywhere close to completing an insert set, so I pounced on these insert cards listed at a penny each. I wound up winning 10 for a dime, which I would have gladly paid for the Pujols or Holliday alone. The original insert rate was 1:6, so this represents 60 packs worth of Diamond Stars. There were a few duplicates within the lot, as you can see, but I didn't have any of the 7 unique cards previously. I've still only got 10 of the 25 cards in the set.

These cards are shiny in person, but put next to each other in a scan, and I start to feel dizzy just looking at all the colors, lines, and sparkle.

2011 Topps - Diamond Stars
#DS-3 Joe Mauer
#DS-10 Albert Pujols
#DS-12 Alex Rodriguez (x2)
#DS-15 Cliff Lee (x2)
#DS-16 Felix Hernandez
#DS-17 Matt Holliday
#DS-24 Ryan Braun
I actually got 2 of the Braun cards as well, but my scanner is wide enough to go 5 cards by 2. It looks mostly like the first one, though, so you can imagine it.


eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought2457
Total Spent$43.42
Per Card1.767 cents

2013-09-25

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 3, Final

Seattle over Kansas City

The AFC West is shaping up to be a 2-team race between Kansas City and Denver; those two have a combined chance of over 91% of winning the division. I've currently got Kansas City as the stronger team, but not so much so that I'd bet on them to win both games against Denver just yet.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA3-00.58884.05391.32477.21443.32523.87613.044
KC3-00.57548.81673.27656.42930.66616.5978.732
CAR1-20.56923.70549.44631.56016.4888.6514.563
NO3-00.56866.55383.12163.79434.03417.8569.386
DEN3-00.56642.57970.62352.77528.04314.8847.694
NE3-00.56347.16070.78753.45928.43414.8967.668
DAL2-10.55165.66673.70750.35425.52512.8226.526
IND2-10.54544.12653.54435.21017.7518.9174.422
MIA3-00.54336.25363.48145.67023.12711.5885.729
CHI3-00.53353.63274.50653.64326.33612.6866.231
DET2-10.52430.59155.53735.15916.7217.8993.803
CIN2-10.52244.01651.84932.12715.3957.3433.472
BAL2-10.51442.05449.85330.06114.1666.6523.096
NYJ2-10.51312.98332.73619.9389.4024.4202.051
GB1-20.51213.83831.59118.1918.3823.8771.820
TEN2-10.51028.17640.89224.95911.6595.4322.504
SD1-20.4955.05513.0297.2523.2991.5080.673
ATL1-20.4948.14325.31213.4785.9732.6761.211
PHI1-20.48824.33435.36019.1768.3693.6661.637
BUF1-20.4843.60411.7516.3472.8061.2420.540
HOU2-10.47825.10334.49819.3888.4453.6721.580
OAK1-20.4783.55011.5096.0542.6381.1580.496
MIN0-30.4771.9397.9413.8941.6500.7090.309
CLE1-20.46010.40713.9346.7972.8261.1780.484
ARI1-20.4565.86818.5158.9263.6111.4820.613
WAS0-30.4526.1528.8714.0501.6140.6520.269
STL1-20.4506.23816.3527.8943.1651.2890.527
TB0-30.4391.5996.2432.7931.0840.4290.171
PIT0-30.4343.5234.7212.0710.8050.3150.122
SF1-20.4303.84116.0857.2402.7401.0570.411
NYG0-30.4243.8486.0902.6340.9820.3720.143
JAC0-30.4112.5943.5161.4620.5370.1990.073

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]

2013-09-23

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Seattle over Kansas City

The top two teams swapped positions, again. Seattle reasserted its dominance with a 45-17 game against Jacksonville. As Jacksonville is the worst team at the moment, I'm glad the top 2 teams have played them, because they are thus at least more comparable to each other.

Carolina is the 3rd best team, with only a 1-2 record. This is a result of their 2 narrow losses by a total of 6 points, and their shutout win by 38 points. If you were to smooth out those points over all 3 games, they'd be 3-0, illustrating my system's preference for point differential over actual wins and losses in projecting future games.

Finally, it's weird to live in a world where the Steelers and Packers are a combined 1-5.

I'll save my Rams bellyaching and hope to instead do some celebrating after this Thursday's game.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA3-00.58884.03691.33377.24143.34423.89613.141
KC3-00.57553.14073.00057.25331.41917.0908.992
CAR1-20.56923.70049.46231.57616.4928.6494.592
NO3-00.56866.55583.13463.82434.05217.8549.450
NE3-00.56347.56171.18854.15228.97015.3237.886
DAL2-10.55165.69173.64350.24125.46912.7956.559
IND2-10.54544.63854.38536.35118.4669.3474.634
DEN2-00.54428.78053.44737.36119.0159.6764.790
MIA3-00.54336.18663.70346.01823.43711.8595.865
CHI3-00.53353.62874.52853.68026.34812.6886.280
DET2-10.52430.59255.56035.17616.7267.9113.834
CIN2-10.52244.05851.97632.59815.7347.5673.578
OAK1-10.51712.39727.62716.8978.0943.8861.817
BAL2-10.51442.07449.90830.51814.4936.8643.195
NYJ2-10.51312.65732.43319.8089.4034.4642.073
GB1-20.51213.84131.60718.2058.3873.8781.835
TEN2-10.51027.87840.77325.16611.8495.5672.566
SD1-20.4955.68313.1497.4003.3911.5570.695
ATL1-20.4948.14425.34313.4995.9832.6801.223
PHI1-20.48824.35235.26619.1048.3423.6551.645
BUF1-20.4843.59511.8436.4342.8671.2810.558
HOU2-10.47824.83734.37019.5688.5933.7721.624
MIN0-30.4771.9407.9603.9041.6540.7120.312
CLE1-20.46010.43513.9886.9142.9021.2190.502
ARI1-20.4565.87418.5628.9513.6201.4850.620
WAS0-30.4526.1678.8504.0421.6120.6520.270
STL1-20.4516.24916.3997.9223.1751.2910.533
TB0-30.4391.6016.2652.8061.0890.4300.173
PIT0-30.4343.4334.6222.0540.8060.3180.123
SF1-20.4303.84216.1207.2552.7491.0600.417
NYG0-30.4243.7895.9672.5750.9590.3620.140
JAC0-30.4122.6473.5911.5080.5610.2100.077

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]

2013-09-22

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 4

If you lose, you're out of the family. Or at least the #1 spot. Auburn dropped to #9, though they still outrank plenty of 3-0 teams. On the strength of that victory, LSU takes over #1, because LSU's other victories have not been over stellar teams.

The Big 10 is looking pretty strong early in the year, with 2 of the top 5 slots, and 4 of the top 8.

Missouri jumped up to #14, so I'll be interested to see if they even get a vote in any polls this week. Last week they did not.

New Mexico State retains the #124 ranking after losing a squeaker to UCLA, 59-13.

1LSU4-0
2Texas Tech4-0
3Northwestern4-0
4Louisville4-0
5Michigan4-0
6Maryland4-0
7Minnesota4-0
8Ohio State4-0
9Auburn3-1
10Clemson3-0
11Florida State3-0
12Alabama3-0
13Washington3-0
14Missouri3-0
15Arizona3-0
16Oklahoma State3-0
17Fresno State3-0
18Washington State3-1
19Oregon3-0
20Baylor3-0
21Oklahoma3-0
22Nebraska3-1
23Texas A&M3-1
24Northern Illinois3-0
25Virginia Tech3-1
26UCF3-0
27Penn State3-1
28USC3-1
29UCLA3-0
30Utah3-1
31Georgia Tech3-0
32Stanford3-0
33Ohio3-1
34Rutgers3-1
35Notre Dame3-1
36Miami (FL)3-0
37Arkansas3-1
38Bowling Green3-1
39Houston3-0
40Ole Miss3-0
41Oregon State3-1
42Michigan State3-1
43Ball State3-1
44Cincinnati3-1
45Wisconsin3-1
46Wyoming3-1
47Middle Tennessee3-1
48Navy2-0
49Georgia2-1
50Illinois2-1
51Mississippi State2-2
52Florida2-1
53Iowa3-1
54South Alabama2-1
55Pittsburgh2-1
56Arizona State2-1
57North Carolina State2-1
58Boise State2-2
59East Carolina2-1
60Indiana2-2
61Boston College2-1
62Duke2-2
63Toledo2-2
64Colorado2-0
65Marshall2-2
66UNLV2-2
67South Carolina2-1
68Syracuse2-2
69West Virginia2-2
70Virginia2-1
71North Texas2-2
72Texas State2-1
73Utah State2-2
74Louisiana-Lafayette2-2
75Tulane2-2
76UTSA2-2
77Louisiana-Monroe2-2
78Tennessee2-2
79Kansas State2-2
80Troy2-2
81Arkansas State2-2
82Kansas2-1
83Texas2-2
84Wake Forest2-2
85Nevada2-2
86Western Kentucky2-2
87Vanderbilt2-2
88California1-2
89TCU1-2
90North Carolina1-2
91Akron1-3
92Southern Methodist1-2
93Rice1-2
94Kent State1-3
95Brigham Young1-2
96Memphis1-2
97UAB1-2
98San Jose State1-2
99Tulsa1-2
100Buffalo1-2
101Eastern Michigan1-3
102Purdue1-3
103Central Michigan1-3
104New Mexico1-2
105Louisiana Tech1-3
106Florida Atlantic1-3
107Kentucky1-2
108Colorado State1-3
109Army1-3
110Air Force1-3
111UTEP1-2
112Connecticut0-3
113Florida International0-4
114Temple0-3
115San Diego State0-3
116Iowa State0-2
117Southern Miss0-3
118Idaho0-4
119Hawaii0-3
120Western Michigan0-4
121South Florida0-3
122Miami (OH)0-3
123Massachusetts0-4
124New Mexico State0-4


2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3

2013-09-20

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 3, Thursday

Kansas City over Seattle

The top two teams swapped positions, so now the seemingly real Chiefs are projected to beat the Seahawks. As I often state, though, this can be skewed by the fact that they've played a different number of games.

In the NFL, 64 of the games (25%) are inter-conference games, as last night's game was. Having just one game between simulations means I can view the gradient effect of the game. In this case, every NFC team's chances went up just a little bit. This is because, with one less possible win among all NFC teams, the wildcard slots will be slightly easier to attain. Later in the year this effect is usually superseded by the actual records of the teams involved, because if there are a few 10-win teams in a division, it doesn't matter how bad the conference is as a whole, those 10-win teams are both likely making the playoffs. But for now, with the AFC 6-1 against the NFC, the 1-1 Rams or even 0-2 Vikings and Buccaneers can dream of an 8-8 (maybe even 7-9) Wildcard season.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC3-00.57550.50074.29459.35433.41418.80510.552
SEA2-00.56158.38376.41561.65734.54419.23910.297
DEN2-00.54428.83456.95440.81921.29811.1975.934
MIA2-00.53639.82560.69345.09823.41011.9416.241
NO2-00.52156.91368.60250.30225.75313.0586.466
GB1-10.51826.26742.98529.15714.7817.4503.667
CIN1-10.51747.43152.78433.04116.2537.9383.994
OAK1-10.51711.56529.21018.4719.0754.5012.263
HOU2-00.51549.89260.63241.88620.63910.0565.035
NE2-00.51435.28155.31138.90419.2009.3294.662
DET1-10.51125.65941.58327.71413.8366.8623.328
DAL1-10.50745.11851.89033.36016.4658.0933.899
CHI2-00.50742.18660.18043.40621.57110.6085.107
TEN1-10.50220.11731.42719.2129.1794.3682.134
ATL1-10.50221.93138.10824.15611.8085.7652.748
ARI1-10.50215.54436.11022.90111.1635.4782.609
SD1-10.5009.10223.63814.3836.8323.2761.592
IND1-10.50024.00533.13520.1879.6004.5482.213
BUF1-10.49812.76926.39816.4087.7983.6751.781
NYJ1-10.49412.12525.44515.6637.3703.4371.649
STL1-10.49316.52034.31221.51810.2994.9662.322
TB0-20.4919.67219.04111.1555.3252.5431.185
PHI1-20.48828.37735.43020.9349.8924.6722.163
CAR0-20.48311.48519.23411.0675.1892.4301.113
MIN0-20.4835.88814.5128.4003.9451.8540.848
BAL1-10.47431.44435.88319.8708.9003.9681.827
NYG0-20.47013.32218.23910.0204.5502.0690.920
WAS0-20.46613.18317.0689.1074.0911.8420.812
SF1-10.4659.55226.29115.1456.7883.0711.349
PIT0-20.45411.09713.6596.7592.8821.2290.542
CLE0-20.44710.02712.2115.9012.4791.0430.452
JAC0-20.4395.9878.3284.0461.6700.6900.294

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]

2013-09-19

Zistle Trade #4

There are no small trades, only small traders, or something like that. However, I manged to snag these 5 cards for just a Bryce Harper base card in a PWE. This trade came in when Zistle.com first announced their free trial of their enhanced features, which seem to allow for easier matching of want and trade lists, and my trading partner found me.

1993 Upper Deck #428 Dmitri Young
1997 Collector's Choice #471 Matt Morris
2007 Upper Deck Future Stars #87 Scott Rolen

The cards above were nice, and on my want list, but the two below are of players I really collect.

1990 Leaf # Ozzie Smith
1997 Fleer #193 Mark McGwire
Even though these are two base cards of fairly common sets, I didn't have them yet. The McGwire is especially surprising to me given how much wax I was buying in 1997, and how much McGwire stuff I bought from my LCS in 1998-99.

2013-09-17

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 2, Final

Seattle over Kansas City

Nothing substantial changed after the just the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh Monday night game, except that Cincinnati is now the favorite to win the AFC North, and the once-mighty Steelers are off to an 0-2 start.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA2-00.56158.46176.16361.19834.20319.01310.285
KC2-00.55539.84762.88047.58125.82314.0147.569
DEN2-00.54434.37758.77743.27322.91412.1506.431
MIA2-00.53639.76761.39045.78123.95512.3956.468
NO2-00.52156.95368.41449.87525.46412.8986.461
GB1-10.51826.26242.50428.62914.4847.2863.631
CIN1-10.51747.38053.03033.62616.7018.2704.155
OAK1-10.51714.29630.92919.9349.9334.9692.494
HOU2-00.51549.93661.33843.01821.39910.5625.281
NE2-00.51435.21956.02439.58019.6849.7114.847
DET1-10.51125.66141.11227.19313.5486.7123.294
DAL1-10.50739.61548.31331.07915.3307.5283.671
CHI2-00.50742.18659.68042.72921.18010.3985.065
PHI1-10.50537.66046.39029.54514.4757.0653.426
TEN1-10.50220.13332.19319.9389.6264.6382.263
ATL1-10.50221.95837.78823.80711.6145.6562.725
ARI1-10.50215.42035.44922.36210.8815.3302.569
SD1-10.50011.47925.43115.7717.5963.6741.782
IND1-10.50024.03233.82220.95510.0694.8292.344
BUF1-10.49812.90627.34717.0728.1893.9131.892
NYJ1-10.49412.10826.00016.0557.6263.6071.728
STL1-10.49316.55733.98621.20110.1284.8712.305
TB0-20.4919.59018.65510.8735.1812.4701.166
CAR0-20.48311.49919.05510.8965.0952.3851.106
MIN0-20.4835.89014.2378.1893.8381.8010.834
BAL1-10.47431.39936.11320.2189.1554.1381.904
NYG0-20.47011.51816.7479.2314.1901.9040.858
WAS0-20.46611.20715.5828.3363.7441.6830.751
SF1-10.4659.56325.92614.8566.6453.0001.335
PIT0-20.45411.06913.7806.9002.9821.2880.567
CLE0-20.44710.15212.5356.1392.6091.1110.480
JAC0-20.4395.8998.4114.1581.7400.7300.311

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]

2013-09-16

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Seattle over Kansas City

Seattle stomped San Francisco (and my fantasy team QB, Colin Kaepernick) to rise up to be the top team with almost 2 weeks completed. I still can't tell how good Kansas City really is, because Dallas has been some level of dysfunctional for the last 10 years it seems, so I never know if their wins indicate a bad opponent, or their losses indicate a good one. But my algorithm has no such memory, so KC is on top of the AFC.
TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA2-00.56158.47176.19761.24034.22419.02510.319
KC2-00.55539.86162.94247.90226.09714.2187.680
DEN2-00.54434.39258.83243.57723.16012.3306.528
MIA2-00.53739.78761.43646.11124.24212.5866.572
NO2-00.52156.96668.44649.91925.49412.9086.485
GB1-10.51826.41342.57628.68914.5167.3023.651
OAK1-10.51714.11030.64019.8869.9454.9942.504
HOU2-00.51549.80961.32643.31121.64010.7245.361
NE2-00.51435.22056.07139.87619.9199.8624.922
DET1-10.51125.80741.18527.25713.5836.7293.313
DAL1-10.50739.63948.34931.11815.3497.5373.686
CHI2-00.50741.84759.26742.35020.98810.3055.034
PHI1-10.50537.66046.40429.56414.4877.0713.440
TEN1-10.50220.08232.30320.2119.8004.7392.315
ATL1-10.50221.95037.81123.83011.6235.6662.740
ARI1-10.50215.42335.48322.39410.8955.3382.583
SD1-10.50011.63725.76816.0977.7803.7781.833
IND1-10.50024.23434.16421.31510.2854.9512.403
BUF1-10.49812.89627.35217.2158.2913.9751.923
CIN0-10.49430.20535.06020.6289.7574.6092.207
NYJ1-10.49412.09726.02316.1957.7243.6651.756
STL1-10.49316.54834.01321.22010.1344.8742.314
TB0-20.4919.59118.68010.8875.1862.4751.172
CAR0-20.48311.49419.06610.9035.1022.3881.110
MIN0-20.4835.93314.2598.2033.8431.8030.837
PIT0-10.47825.63929.27316.1997.4073.3831.570
BAL1-10.47433.28137.33020.8839.4664.2821.970
NYG0-20.47011.50416.7439.2284.1891.9020.859
WAS0-20.46611.19715.5788.3343.7391.6800.753
SF1-10.4649.55825.94214.8646.6472.9991.341
CLE0-20.44710.87513.0736.4012.7241.1620.503
JAC0-20.4395.8758.4074.1931.7630.7420.316

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]

2013-09-15

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 3

Auburn sits atop my power rankings this week.

North Carolina State plummeted to #38 from #1 because of their bye week, combined with the performance of their past opponents.

#1 in the real world Alabama is down at #20 in these rankings, also due largely to having one less win than the 3-0 teams at the top.

I don't think the poll voters are going to be as impressed with the Michigan win as my score-agnostic algorithm is, so I doubt they'll rise up anywhere near #3 this week.

And somehow Mizzou jumped up to #28 from #34 by not playing a game. Confirming what many know about SEC football.


Or maybe that was Global Thermonuclear War, I can never keep the two straight in my mind.

1Auburn3-0
2Oklahoma3-0
3Michigan3-0
4Louisville3-0
5UCF3-0
6Oregon3-0
7Arizona3-0
8Oklahoma State3-0
9Texas Tech3-0
10Ohio State3-0
11Arkansas3-0
12LSU3-0
13Northwestern3-0
14Minnesota3-0
15Maryland3-0
16Michigan State3-0
17Washington2-0
18Ole Miss3-0
19Washington State2-1
20Alabama2-0
21Ohio2-1
22Navy2-0
23Baylor2-0
24Georgia Tech2-0
25South Alabama2-1
26Utah2-1
26Illinois2-1
28Missouri2-0
29Texas A&M2-1
30Boise State2-1
31UCLA2-0
32Clemson2-0
33Cincinnati2-1
34Arizona State2-0
34Bowling Green2-1
36Fresno State2-0
37Indiana2-1
38North Carolina State2-0
39Tulane2-1
40Miami (FL)2-0
41Colorado2-0
42Penn State2-1
43Oregon State2-1
44Duke2-1
45USC2-1
46Florida State2-0
47Stanford2-0
48Marshall2-1
49North Texas2-1
49Utah State2-1
51Nebraska2-1
52East Carolina2-1
53Northern Illinois2-0
54Virginia Tech2-1
55Wisconsin2-1
56Arkansas State2-1
57West Virginia2-1
58Notre Dame2-1
59Kansas State2-1
60South Carolina2-1
61Rutgers2-1
62Houston2-0
63Boston College2-1
64Tennessee2-1
65Texas State2-0
66Ball State2-1
67Troy2-1
68Wyoming2-1
69Louisiana-Monroe2-1
70Iowa2-1
71Middle Tennessee2-1
72Georgia1-1
73Southern Methodist1-1
74Akron1-2
75Mississippi State1-2
76California1-2
77Kent State1-2
78Florida1-1
79North Carolina1-1
80Virginia1-1
81Buffalo1-2
82Toledo1-2
83UNLV1-2
84Rice1-1
85Tulsa1-2
86TCU1-2
87UTSA1-2
88Louisiana Tech1-2
89San Jose State1-1
90Pittsburgh1-1
91Louisiana-Lafayette1-2
92Syracuse1-2
93Purdue1-2
94Western Kentucky1-2
95Eastern Michigan1-2
96Brigham Young1-1
97Kansas1-1
98Central Michigan1-2
99Florida Atlantic1-2
100Colorado State1-2
101Wake Forest1-2
102Vanderbilt1-2
103Nevada1-2
104Air Force1-2
105Army1-2
106Kentucky1-2
107New Mexico1-2
108Texas1-2
109UTEP1-1
110San Diego State0-2
111Florida International0-3
112Connecticut0-2
113Hawaii0-2
114UAB0-2
115Massachusetts0-3
116Southern Miss0-3
117Temple0-3
118Memphis0-2
119Idaho0-3
120Iowa State0-2
121South Florida0-3
122Western Michigan0-3
123Miami (OH)0-2
124New Mexico State0-3


2013 History
Week 1
Week 2

2013-09-13

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 2, Thursday

New England over New Orleans

I get the feeling New England is mostly here on the strength of being the only team currently 2-0, as well as defeating 2 division rivals, giving them an edge almost as good as New Orleans, who is the only 1-0 team in an otherwise 0-3 division. There are still 239 games to be played, though, so even Jacksonville is still a contender.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC1-00.53138.37054.72339.67820.90110.9905.780
MIA1-00.52633.35052.82838.07319.85310.3175.380
DEN1-00.52234.10151.11236.35518.7759.6885.009
TEN1-00.52232.96550.81736.14318.6519.5884.954
SEA1-00.52132.42251.35936.53218.9199.7875.011
DET1-00.51538.23853.10937.42819.1389.7714.948
NE2-00.51441.22460.58843.86222.27111.2725.734
NO1-00.51345.27355.30538.36519.5309.9285.008
IND1-00.51029.06946.48432.11316.1338.0904.083
PHI1-00.50936.66750.27034.60717.4698.8034.405
SF1-00.50928.01847.05932.50316.4008.2754.140
DAL1-00.50735.48449.20833.69716.9278.4974.233
CHI1-00.50633.03947.64532.84916.4748.2574.105
STL1-00.50528.46846.53031.87915.9678.0023.973
HOU1-00.50528.08245.46131.12215.4697.6763.834
TB0-10.49720.97930.11718.8909.2894.5662.232
BUF0-10.49610.96323.51014.5987.1153.4691.703
SD0-10.49513.97123.80314.7777.2103.5221.725
ARI0-10.49511.09123.20614.3837.0433.4521.678
CIN0-10.49428.48234.63521.13910.2054.9242.408
NYJ1-10.49414.46329.46718.5258.9914.3602.130
NYG0-10.49314.10724.27214.9257.2783.5481.719
GB0-10.49116.21725.72615.9587.7533.7671.819
WAS0-10.49113.74323.77414.5467.0613.4281.653
OAK0-10.49013.55823.02614.1256.8173.2941.599
ATL0-10.48716.30925.04815.0787.2503.4861.667
MIN0-10.48512.50622.95213.9636.6963.2121.532
CAR0-10.47917.43824.42014.3976.8063.2211.515
PIT0-10.47824.49829.09116.7027.7943.6371.721
BAL0-10.47824.21328.86916.5837.7353.6041.703
CLE0-10.47422.80727.49715.6237.2163.3331.563
JAC0-10.4699.88418.08910.5824.8662.2371.037

[Week 1]

2013-09-12

eBay Wins #86

1989 Upper Deck #617 Tom Browning
I've got 21 cards out of this set, including the most expensive one, #1 Ken Griffey, Jr. I'd like to complete it eventually, but I've got a little over 97% left to go, but only 75% of the Cardinals, as I've got 7 out of their 28.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought2447
Total Spent$43.32
Per Card1.77 cents

2013-09-10

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 1

Kansas City over New Orleans
One day I'll write up a clearer explanation, but for now, here's my attempt 2 years ago. In essence, I assign a strength to each team based on their points scored and points allowed, simulate the rest of the season using those strengths, and report their chances of reaching each playoff round.

In week 1, the team with the biggest win is always atop the projections, and Kansas City benefited from a complete domination of Jacksonville. Even though Seattle and Detroit are currently stronger teams than New Orleans, the NFC South is currently a weaker division, increasing New Orleans' chances of making the playoffs, and ultimately making them the NFC favorite. These won't hold up for long, so there's no sense in any deep analyses. Let's just see the numbers.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC1-00.53138.33154.74939.76420.97611.0505.814
MIA1-00.52734.05052.98238.34320.02610.4105.427
DEN1-00.52234.25751.26036.51818.8999.7715.053
TEN1-00.52232.84850.80936.18618.6939.6334.980
SEA1-00.52132.44251.38836.55518.9329.8025.027
DET1-00.51538.26653.13337.44919.1469.7744.952
NO1-00.51345.27255.32238.38019.5359.9305.016
IND1-00.51029.07346.53532.19416.2098.1444.108
PHI1-00.50936.68650.28834.62517.4838.8124.416
SF1-00.50928.01747.06632.50516.3998.2764.147
DAL1-00.50735.48149.20733.69516.9358.4994.239
CHI1-00.50633.04847.65932.85716.4868.2594.113
STL1-00.50528.46546.52631.87315.9668.0023.982
HOU1-00.50528.19745.56831.24715.5597.7333.864
NE1-00.50428.05546.04131.61215.7337.8123.898
NYJ1-00.50326.40443.43329.63114.6907.2643.618
TB0-10.49721.05430.20218.9469.3154.5802.240
BUF0-10.49611.49123.57914.7407.1953.5111.723
SD0-10.49513.94723.80814.8107.2383.5381.733
ARI0-10.49511.07723.17814.3677.0353.4481.677
CIN0-10.49428.48934.65621.19610.2454.9482.417
NYG0-10.49314.09824.26114.9127.2693.5451.720
GB0-10.49116.19725.69815.9337.7393.7561.814
WAS0-10.49113.73523.75914.5397.0563.4231.652
OAK0-10.49013.46522.98514.1316.8303.3071.606
ATL0-10.48716.28425.02215.0637.2363.4811.667
MIN0-10.48512.49022.92413.9416.6803.2041.529
CAR0-10.47917.39024.36814.3596.7883.2091.514
PIT0-10.47824.48829.09616.7337.8193.6551.729
BAL0-10.47824.20628.87216.6187.7583.6211.712
CLE0-10.47322.81827.52715.6677.2443.3511.570
JAC0-10.4699.88218.10010.6094.8862.2521.045

2013-09-08

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 2

NC State sits atop these early season rankings. There are relatively few ties this week, but the rankings are still very tight. The top 40 teams are 2-0, and 19 of the bottom 23 are 0-2. Southern Miss maintains it's winless streak, after an 0-12 2012 and 0-2 so far this year.
1North Carolina State2-0
2Oklahoma State2-0
3Louisville2-0
4Oregon2-0
5Fresno State2-0
6Bowling Green2-0
7Utah2-0
8Auburn2-0
9Oklahoma2-0
10Clemson2-0
11Penn State2-0
12Northwestern2-0
13LSU2-0
14Boston College2-0
15UCF2-0
16Illinois2-0
17Michigan2-0
18Texas A&M2-0
18Duke2-0
20Colorado2-0
21Texas State2-0
22Texas Tech2-0
23Ball State2-0
24Wisconsin2-0
25Miami (FL)2-0
25Tennessee2-0
27Baylor2-0
28Nebraska2-0
29Arizona2-0
29Troy2-0
31Maryland2-0
32East Carolina2-0
33Ohio State2-0
34Missouri2-0
35Ole Miss2-0
36Arkansas2-0
37Marshall2-0
38Minnesota2-0
39Michigan State2-0
40Houston2-0
41Washington1-0
42Georgia1-1
43Louisiana Tech1-1
44Virginia1-1
45South Alabama1-1
46Boise State1-1
47South Carolina1-1
48Georgia Tech1-0
49Mississippi State1-1
50UTSA1-1
51Northern Illinois1-0
52Stanford1-0
53UCLA1-0
53Kansas1-0
55Eastern Michigan1-1
56Navy1-0
57California1-1
58West Virginia1-1
59Ohio1-1
60Wake Forest1-1
60Alabama1-0
62Washington State1-1
62TCU1-1
64Kent State1-1
65Utah State1-1
66Akron1-1
67Cincinnati1-1
68Western Kentucky1-1
69Southern Methodist1-1
70Florida State1-0
71Brigham Young1-1
72Tulane1-1
73North Carolina1-1
74Tulsa1-1
75Central Michigan1-1
76Rutgers1-1
77Arkansas State1-1
78Arizona State1-0
79Notre Dame1-1
80Louisiana-Monroe1-1
81Kansas State1-1
82Florida1-1
83Vanderbilt1-1
84Army1-1
85Oregon State1-1
86Wyoming1-1
87New Mexico1-1
88Iowa1-1
89San Jose State1-1
90Nevada1-1
91Kentucky1-1
92Indiana1-1
93North Texas1-1
94USC1-1
95Virginia Tech1-1
96Air Force1-1
97Purdue1-1
98Texas1-1
99Middle Tennessee1-1
100Memphis0-1
100Rice0-1
102Syracuse0-2
103Connecticut0-1
104Iowa State0-1
105UAB0-2
106Florida International0-2
107Southern Miss0-2
108Florida Atlantic0-2
109Buffalo0-2
110Massachusetts0-2
111San Diego State0-2
112UNLV0-2
113Pittsburgh0-1
114South Florida0-2
115Colorado State0-2
116UTEP0-1
117Toledo0-2
118Louisiana-Lafayette0-2
119Western Michigan0-2
120Temple0-2
121Miami (OH)0-2
122New Mexico State0-2
123Hawaii0-2
124Idaho0-2

2013 History

2013-09-06

March Radness in September

Remember the NCAA basketball tournament from about 6 months ago? I mostly made safe picks this year, and predictably scored "okay" on a scale from awful to fortune teller. However, the rest of the pool in madding's March Radness contest didn't pick enough of the right upsets to defeat me, and I wound up a winner. My prize was a 2013 Heritage blaster, as well as first pick among some singles before 2nd through 4th place got to pick.

First off, the single card
2008 Topps Heritage
T205 Mini #HTCP1 Albert Pujols
This Pujols card is very red, and a little gold. I like it.

With 8 packs in the blaster, I decided to rank them worst to best, based on the insert, short print, or Cardinals contained within.

Pack 8:
114 Cody Ross
126 Craig Kimbrel
162 Hitting Area (Bryce Harper/Chipper Jones)
186 Casper Wells
204 Gregor Blanco
318 Kendrys Morales
371 Cole De Vries
408 2013 Rookie Stars (David Lough/Jack Odorizzi)
497 Jonathan Lucroy SP
2013 Topps Heritage
#497 Jonathan Lucroy SP
Nothing personal, Jonathan, but someone had to finish last.

Pack 7:
25 Andrew Cashner
60 Will Middlebrooks
132 Rickie Weeks
140 Carlos Pena
210 Jacoby Ellsbury
231 Jeff Francoeur
322 Scott Baker
400 Kris Medlen
430 Mike Trout SP
2013 Topps Heritage
#430 Mike Trout SP
An All-Star Rookie trophy solidifies Mike Trout at #7.

Pack 6:
64 Brian Wilson
135 Domonic Brown
155 Red Sox Sockers (Will Middlebrooks/David Ortiz)
252 Yonder Alonso
373 Ted Lilly
379 Nyjer Morgan
398 2013 Rookie Stars (Jeurys Familia/Collin McHugh)
421 Welington Castillo
New Age Perfomers NAP-DW David Wright
2013 Topps Heritage
New Age Performers #NAP-DW David Wright
Wright beats Trout based on rarity; this is a 1:8 insert.

Pack 5:
18 Adam Lind
30 Chad Billingsley
94 2013 Rookie Stars (Henry Rodriguez/Tony Cingrani)
255 Salvador Perez
292 Trevor Cahill
368 Ryan Dempster
391 Andy Pettitte
402 Will Venable
Memorable Moments MM-DP David Price
2013 Topps Heritage
Memorable Moments #MM-DP David Price
I think this set is new to Heritage this year. I like commemorating yearly achievements, and 20 wins is pretty rare these days.

Pack 4:
69 Alex Rodriguez
96 Jeff Samardzija
174 Derek Norris
203 Alcides Escobar
229 Jed Lowrie
360 Mark Teixeira
397 Clint Barmes
417 Juan Francisco
Then and Now TN-MG Juan Marichal/Gio Gonzalez
2013 Topps Heritage
Then and Now #TN-MG Juan Marichal/Gio Gonzalez
A 1960s star out of a 2013 pack is always fun.

Pack 3:
24 Anibal Sanchez
87 Bruce Bochy
106 Mike Leake
160 David Freese
2013 Topps Heritage #160 David Freese
223 James Loney
246 Josh Hamilton
344 Andrew Bailey
364 Russell Martin
Target Red Border 190 Derek Jeter
2013 Topps Heritage
Target Red Border #190 Derek Jeter
This was the first pack with 2 "hits" by my generous definition. We've all grown attached to David Freese in St. Louis, but there are rumblings of an offseason trade with such cheap infield talent at AAA ready to arrive. That may also make the Cardinals lots of merchandising money, because plenty of folks will want to go replace their Freese jerseys and t-shirts purchased after his amazing 2011 postseason.


Pack 2:
40 Carlos Beltran
2013 Topps Heritage #40 Carlos Beltran

159 Desmond Jennings
176 Ervin Santana
197 Mark Buehrle
2013 Topps Heritage #197 Mark Buehrle

264 Vernon Wells
267 Marco Estrada
276 Nick Swisher
396 Jeff Karstens
437 Billy Butler SP
2013 Topps Heritage #437 Billy Butler SP
A 3-hit pack, only because I count Mark Buehrle. And I'll deduct points for a card of a DH, even if it is the likable Billy Butler.

Pack 1:
1 2012 NL ERA Leaders (Clayton Kershaw/R.A. Dickey/Johnny Cueto)
13 Adam LaRoche
21 Joe Girardi
2013 Topps Heritage #21 Joe Girardi
Is that Joe Girardi, or Vince McMahon in a Yankees cap?

218 Brandon Beachy
254 Nathan Eovaldi
268 Justin Ruggiano
Baseball Flashback #BF-EB Ernie Banks
2013 Topps Heritage
Baseball Flashback #BF-EB Ernie Banks
Even a Cardinals fan has to enjoy a card of Mr. Cub.

Clubhouse Collection Relics CCR-BP Brandon Phillips
2013 Topps Heritage
Clubhouse Collection Relics #CCR-BP Brandon Phillips
Madding picked up a good blaster for me, since these are seeded 1:55 packs, or a little more than once every 7 8-pack blasters. Based on that alone, this pack has to win the blaster.

For once, I managed to cram one of Cards on Cards' contest results into a single post. Thanks to madding for the blaster and the mini!