2016-11-22

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 11, Final

Dallas over New England

Oakland beat Houston in Mexico City to move up a few spots in the strength ranking, and increase their playoff chances by over 9 percentage points at 8-2. Houston took a similar downward hit, falling from 6-3 to 6-4. And for the record, San Francisco still isn't really eliminated, but didn't make it in any of my 1.5 billion simulations today.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
DAL9-10.67589.0599.2994.5759.7836.1920.89
NE8-20.67193.9498.4096.2860.8937.6321.28
PHI5-50.6160.6425.6014.746.983.661.88
SEA7-2-10.60695.4397.3987.8548.7323.6111.91
DEN7-30.60624.0370.9952.3627.5913.926.90
ARI4-5-10.5804.4214.938.503.881.860.89
KC7-30.57929.4071.1752.3126.5712.435.82
BUF5-50.5750.7023.6613.906.263.021.40
MIN6-40.57054.8167.6340.8618.738.594.02
ATL6-40.55776.8378.8144.8919.998.844.02
OAK8-20.55246.5487.3268.6932.9714.406.37
PIT5-50.54749.6252.3926.6711.795.282.31
WAS6-3-10.5402.8758.8030.2812.215.412.37
BAL5-50.52944.2945.8022.179.324.051.70
SD4-60.5230.042.931.520.590.260.11
DET6-40.51241.2954.0328.1811.214.491.85
TEN5-60.51110.5713.786.522.611.080.43
NYG7-30.5097.4467.1334.3812.995.312.17
MIA6-40.5045.3634.6219.697.843.231.28
NO4-60.4988.7810.594.811.790.700.28
CAR4-60.4963.785.242.350.860.340.13
IND5-50.48328.2230.6213.525.071.930.73
TB5-50.45510.6114.766.232.100.740.27
GB4-60.4483.875.012.060.670.230.08
CIN3-6-10.4416.096.132.300.770.270.09
HOU6-40.42161.1362.0524.027.722.500.80
LA4-60.3970.150.760.290.080.030.01
NYJ3-70.3640.010.050.020.010.000.00
JAC2-80.3620.090.090.030.010.000.00
CHI2-80.3280.030.030.010.000.000.00
SF1-90.323------
CLE0-110.262------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England

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