2019-12-03

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 13, Final

New England over San Francisco

Seattle beat Minnesota, and things are getting crowded at the top. Five teams are 10-2, 2 of them in the same division (the NFC West). While I have San Francisco favored right about 2:1 to win the division, they have a game against Seattle remaining, which would have a huge influence on a tiebreaker if they wind up tied. We could wind up in a situation with a wildcard team with a better record than 2 or 3 division winners.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE10-20.81196.4100.098.271.644.028.8
SF10-20.77966.699.889.262.543.922.9
BAL10-20.77299.5100.099.067.534.320.7
NO10-20.600++++84.640.515.65.0
MIN8-40.64624.379.847.822.610.53.8
BUF9-30.6633.697.255.019.57.83.7
DAL6-60.64483.784.042.320.19.63.5
KC8-40.64499.199.254.118.06.93.1
SEA10-20.56433.399.262.123.69.22.7
GB9-30.56975.394.756.324.48.82.6
HOU8-40.54364.884.039.39.62.81.0
TEN7-50.59030.151.126.17.42.41.0
LAR7-50.5680.123.211.04.11.60.5
PIT7-50.5270.548.020.64.81.30.5
PHI5-70.48016.316.35.61.80.60.1
IND6-60.5095.113.25.51.20.30.1
CHI6-60.5110.42.81.20.40.10.0
CLE5-70.444-2.60.90.20.00.0
OAK6-60.3370.74.41.10.10.00.0
TB5-70.490-0.10.00.00.00.0
DEN4-80.4020.20.30.10.00.00.0
LAC4-80.507-0.00.00.00.00.0
CAR5-70.426-0.00.00.00.00.0
JAC4-80.351-0.00.00.00.00.0
NYJ4-80.335-0.00.00.00.00.0
WAS3-90.2580.00.00.00.00.00.0
DET3-8-10.435------
ATL3-90.383------
ARI3-8-10.334------
NYG2-100.305------
CIN1-110.260------
MIA3-90.224------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over San Francisco

2019-12-02

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 13, Sunday

New England over San Francisco

This was supposed to be the things started clearing up, but things just got muddier. After the way the daytime games went, including a San Francisco loss (for real this time!), I noticed that everything was going against the clinching scenarios. One that was still viable was going into the night game was New England clinching with a win, thanks to Oakland's loss. When they were up 3-0, I unironically texted a friend of mine and told him I predicted a New England loss, because no one seemed to want to clinch this week. And sure enough, Houston beat them. I would say handily, but New England ultimately made it a close game and only lost by 6.

No one will clinch on Monday night either, but Seattle could join 4 other teams at the top of the league at 10-2. And if not, Minnesota will be 9-3 along with 2 other teams, just one game back of the league leaders. Suddenly it feels like parity.

Arizona, the New York Giants, and Miami joined Detroit, Atlanta, and Cincinnati in being eliminated from the playoffs. Arizona and New York lost, but Miami was eliminated despite their win over Philadelphia. Cincinnati actually won their first game of the year, but entirely too late to matter.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE10-20.81196.4100.098.271.644.028.6
SF10-20.77977.799.792.164.444.623.3
BAL10-20.77299.5100.099.067.534.320.5
MIN8-30.66237.491.061.330.814.55.5
NO10-20.600++++80.738.214.44.6
BUF9-30.6633.697.255.019.57.83.7
DAL6-60.64483.783.943.320.09.43.4
KC8-40.64499.199.254.118.06.93.1
GB9-30.56962.494.655.923.38.42.5
SEA9-20.55322.295.352.118.46.92.0
HOU8-40.54364.884.039.39.62.81.0
TEN7-50.59030.151.126.17.42.40.9
PIT7-50.5270.548.020.64.81.30.4
LAR7-50.5680.117.17.92.91.10.3
PHI5-70.48016.316.35.81.80.60.1
IND6-60.5095.113.25.51.20.30.1
CHI6-60.5110.22.00.80.30.10.0
CLE5-70.444-2.60.90.20.00.0
OAK6-60.3370.74.41.10.10.00.0
TB5-70.490-0.10.00.00.00.0
DEN4-80.4020.20.30.10.00.00.0
CAR5-70.426-0.00.00.00.00.0
LAC4-80.507-0.00.00.00.00.0
JAC4-80.351-0.00.00.00.00.0
NYJ4-80.335-0.00.00.00.00.0
WAS3-90.2580.00.00.00.00.00.0
DET3-8-10.435------
ATL3-90.383------
ARI3-8-10.334------
NYG2-100.305------
CIN1-110.260------
MIA3-90.224------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over San Francisco

2019-12-01

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 14

My top 4 contains the same teams as last week, but #1 Clemson fell to #3, beating a very low-ranked South Carolina team, while Ohio State beat a top 25 team in Michigan, and LSU beat a team with a winning record in Texas A&M. My top 4 now matches the CFP of last week. I have a feeling they'll shuffle teams at least a little bit, though, but we'll see. Next week LSU plays Georgia for the SEC, and I suspect the winner will wind up #1 on sheer strength of schedule. My system really likes when teams play more games, so it's almost certain to put conference title participants at the top, if not winners. My top 9 all have a game next week, so I'd expect my final top 4 to come from that pool.

We've still got 3 undefeated teams, now all 12-0 and all ranked at the top.

Missouri beat Arkansas but fired their coach the next day. They rose 4 spots to #74 and finished 6-6, bowl eligible if the NCAA hadn't put the kibosh on that earlier in the week.

Akron finished out their perfect season to go 0-12, and should hold onto the #130 seed through the bowl weeks.

1Ohio State12-0
2LSU12-0
3Clemson12-0
4Georgia11-1
5Memphis11-1
6Oklahoma11-1
7Boise State11-1
8Utah11-1
9Baylor11-1
10Florida10-2
11Appalachian State11-1
12Notre Dame10-2
13Oregon10-2
14Wisconsin10-2
15Penn State10-2
16Cincinnati10-2
17Minnesota10-2
18SMU10-2
19Air Force10-2
20Alabama10-2
21Auburn9-3
22Louisiana10-2
23Michigan9-3
24Navy9-2
25Iowa9-3
26Virginia9-3
27UCF9-3
28Hawai'i9-4
29San Diego State9-3
30Florida Atlantic9-3
31USC8-4
32Kansas State8-4
33Oklahoma State8-4
34Wake Forest8-4
35Louisiana Tech9-3
36Marshall8-4
37Western Kentucky8-4
38Virginia Tech8-4
39Temple8-4
40UAB9-3
41Louisville7-5
42Central Michigan8-4
43Iowa State7-5
44Tennessee7-5
45Texas7-5
46Washington7-5
47Utah State7-5
48Arizona State7-5
49Pittsburgh7-5
50BYU7-5
51Indiana8-4
52Kentucky7-5
53Georgia Southern7-5
54California7-5
55Texas A&M7-5
56Western Michigan7-5
57Buffalo7-5
58Miami (OH)7-5
59Arkansas State7-5
60Southern Mississippi7-5
61Georgia State7-5
62Wyoming7-5
63Nevada7-5
64Florida State6-6
65Mississippi State6-6
66Miami6-6
67Charlotte7-5
68North Carolina6-6
69Michigan State6-6
70Boston College6-6
71Kent State6-6
72Tulane6-6
73Liberty7-5
74Missouri6-6
75Eastern Michigan6-6
76Toledo6-6
77Washington State6-6
78Ohio6-6
79Duke5-7
80Florida International6-6
81West Virginia5-7
82Illinois6-6
83TCU5-7
84Oregon State5-7
85UL Monroe5-7
86Syracuse5-7
87Colorado5-7
88Ball State5-7
89Nebraska5-7
90South Carolina4-8
91Northern Illinois5-7
92Troy5-7
93Coastal Carolina5-7
94Tulsa4-8
95South Florida4-8
96San Jose State5-7
97UCLA4-8
98Army5-7
99Houston4-8
100Fresno State4-8
101Stanford4-8
102Ole Miss4-8
103Texas Tech4-8
104Arizona4-8
105Purdue4-8
106NC State4-8
107Middle Tennessee4-8
108UNLV4-8
109East Carolina4-8
110Colorado State4-8
111North Texas4-8
112Georgia Tech3-9
113UTSA4-8
114Kansas3-9
115Texas State3-9
116Maryland3-9
117Bowling Green3-9
118Vanderbilt3-9
119Northwestern3-9
120Rice3-9
121Rutgers2-10
122New Mexico2-10
123Arkansas2-10
124South Alabama2-10
125UConn2-10
126New Mexico State2-10
127Old Dominion1-11
128UTEP1-11
129UMass1-11
130Akron0-12


2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn
Week 6 Ohio State
Week 7 Ohio State
Week 8 Ohio State
Week 9 Ohio State
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson

2019-11-29

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 13, Thursday

New England over San Francisco

We had 3 games on Thanksgiving, and New Orleans went and clinched a playoff spot before New England had a chance. That's because they have won their division, clinching no worse than a tie with Carolina, over whom they have the head to head tiebreaker. We've got the right teams eliminated now, too, Detroit, Atlanta, and Cincinnati, with Miami doing that thing where they make it in a few simulations but never hit the Superbowl.

San Francisco and New England could both clinch on Sunday, but they both need help, so they could both stretch to week 14, despite their dominance so far.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE10-10.80498.3100.099.573.746.129.8
SF10-10.77084.199.994.365.644.923.4
BAL9-20.75698.999.897.766.933.119.3
MIN8-30.66248.094.266.433.916.16.3
NO10-20.600++++83.340.515.45.1
BUF9-30.6631.797.459.721.69.14.3
DAL6-60.64474.975.240.618.78.83.3
SEA9-20.55315.996.551.118.27.02.0
KC7-40.59286.088.245.614.14.81.9
GB8-30.53351.591.347.317.96.01.7
HOU7-40.53251.068.232.68.32.40.8
TEN6-50.56122.037.719.35.31.70.6
IND6-50.53927.039.618.34.71.40.5
PIT6-50.5100.732.214.63.30.90.3
PHI5-60.49225.126.010.13.21.00.3
LAR6-50.5120.011.94.91.50.50.1
CLE5-60.4600.315.16.01.10.30.1
CHI6-60.5110.53.81.60.50.20.0
OAK6-50.39113.019.96.11.00.20.0
LAC4-70.5140.81.30.50.10.00.0
CAR5-60.441-1.10.40.10.00.0
JAC4-70.3850.00.30.10.00.00.0
DEN3-80.3940.20.30.10.00.00.0
TB4-70.464-0.00.00.00.00.0
NYJ4-70.371-0.10.00.00.00.0
ARI3-7-10.380-0.00.00.00.00.0
NYG2-90.3350.00.00.00.00.00.0
WAS2-90.2490.00.00.00.00.00.0
DET3-8-10.435------
ATL3-90.383------
CIN0-110.250------
MIA2-90.222-0.0----

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff spot: New Orleans (Week 13, Thursday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] New England over San Francisco

2019-11-27

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 12, Final

New England over San Francisco

Baltimore absolutely dominated the Rams on Monday night, nearly assuring themselves the AFC North (99%) and knocking the Rams out of the NFC West (<0.1%). Every team has played 11 games and had one bye now, so we've got 5 weeks of the full slate of 16 games. Of course there will be 3 this Thursday for Thanksgiving, with Dallas and Detroit hosting, as is tradition, and one more random divisional matchup, New Orleans at Atlanta in this case, which is a rematch from last Thanksgiving.

Also, Miami is not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, just very unlikely to make it. If I rerun the simulations with them winning the rest of their games, then do the typical things I do to try to force them into a spot, they eventually make it. Those include forcing all AFC-NFC games to go for the NFC to weaken the field, and then having all teams that have clinched records worse or better than them win the rest of their games, and then repeating that process if any new teams clinched worse records. For example, if Miami wins the rest to finish 7-9, Cincinnati can't possibly catch them, so I know I can safely let them win any game and they won't beat 5-11. Likewise, New England, Baltimore, and Buffalo can win any number of the rest of their games, too, because they already all have at least 8 wins. Anyway, once I do enough of that, I get Miami with a small chance of making the playoffs, so they aren't officially out yet.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE10-10.80499.2100.099.774.847.030.3
SF10-10.77084.199.994.165.144.623.2
BAL9-20.75699.099.897.767.933.719.6
MIN8-30.66248.194.968.435.516.86.6
DAL6-50.66081.982.746.222.411.04.3
NO9-20.58499.399.576.135.312.94.1
BUF8-30.6390.891.953.818.07.23.2
SEA9-20.55315.996.550.117.86.92.0
KC7-40.59286.188.447.614.75.02.0
GB8-30.53351.791.951.319.76.51.8
HOU7-40.53250.668.733.28.52.40.8
TEN6-50.56122.138.119.75.41.70.6
IND6-50.53927.240.419.14.91.50.5
PIT6-50.5100.734.215.53.51.00.3
PHI5-60.49218.119.27.52.40.80.2
LAR6-50.5120.011.74.81.40.50.1
CLE5-60.4600.316.16.41.20.30.1
OAK6-50.39112.920.36.51.00.20.0
CHI5-60.5000.32.00.80.20.10.0
LAC4-70.5140.81.30.60.10.00.0
CAR5-60.4410.71.70.60.10.00.0
JAC4-70.3850.00.30.10.00.00.0
DEN3-80.3940.20.20.10.00.00.0
TB4-70.464-0.10.00.00.00.0
NYJ4-70.371-0.20.00.00.00.0
DET3-7-10.443-0.00.00.00.00.0
ARI3-7-10.380-0.00.00.00.00.0
ATL3-80.398-0.00.00.00.00.0
NYG2-90.3350.00.00.00.00.00.0
WAS2-90.2490.00.00.00.00.00.0
CIN0-110.250------
MIA2-90.222------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over San Francisco

2019-11-25

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 12, Sunday

New England over San Francisco

It's almost silly how close New England is to clinching a playoff spot while not quite doing it yet. They are over 99.999% likely, or less than 1 in 100,000 not to make it. They're also over the 50% mark to make the Superbowl, so given a choice between New England or the rest of the AFC, I'll take New England now. In the NFC San Francisco had a dominant win and is getting close to New England, but they really ran up the score in the first part of the season to solidify a ridiculously high strength number.

We've got a whole lot of teams on the bring of clinching or elimination, so we should see plenty of those next week. I show Detroit, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay not winning their division this week. Some sources claim it's still mathematically possible for Tampa, but I don't see it. The only way it's possible is if Tampa wins out and New Orleans loses all of their games, so both teams finish 9-7. In a 2-team tie, New Orleans wins because they beat Tampa twice. So, Carolina would need to also finish 9-7. In our constructed Scenario, Carolina is 2-2 against the 2 other teams (1-1 against both), making New Orleans 3-1 and Tampa 1-3. And, there's no way for Atlanta to join the tie, having already lost 8 games.

Detroit is a trickier case. I've been lazily running my simulations without ties, and it'll definitely take one for Detroit to have any chance at the NFC North. If Detroit wins out, they will be 8-7-1. Green Bay and Minnesota both have 8 wins and a game against each other, so that game would have to end in a tie, and all 3 teams could be 8-7-1. That puts us in the same 3 team scenario as above, where the first tiebreaker is head to head, where Detroit would be 1-1 against each team, total 2-2, but Green Bay is 1-0-1 against Minnesota, and would win that tiebreaker. So what do we do? Throw Chicago into the mix? We've already forced them to be 7-7 so they'd have to win and tie against Dallas and Kansas City, but that would mean the first tiebreaker is just the conference record, which Chicago would now win at 4-2.

In short, my hypothesis is that Detroit and Tampa are out. Prove me wrong, please.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE10-10.80499.1100.099.774.750.532.6
SF10-10.77084.799.894.265.044.524.0
BAL8-20.71296.699.193.860.026.714.0
MIN8-30.66248.191.666.134.316.26.7
DAL6-50.66081.181.845.722.110.84.5
NO9-20.58499.399.475.735.112.84.3
BUF8-30.6390.992.353.919.48.23.7
KC7-40.59286.188.349.817.76.22.5
SEA9-20.55314.993.748.417.26.62.1
GB8-30.53351.788.149.819.26.31.9
HOU7-40.53250.668.133.79.92.91.0
TEN6-50.56122.137.819.86.02.00.7
LAR6-40.5920.322.811.34.21.90.6
IND6-50.53927.239.919.05.41.70.6
PIT6-50.5102.135.416.24.01.20.4
PHI5-60.49218.919.67.62.50.80.2
CLE5-60.4601.417.26.91.40.40.1
OAK6-50.39112.919.96.41.10.20.1
CHI5-60.5000.31.50.60.20.10.0
LAC4-70.5140.81.30.50.10.00.0
CAR5-60.4410.71.50.50.10.00.0
DEN3-80.3940.20.20.10.00.00.0
JAC4-70.3850.00.30.10.00.00.0
NYJ4-70.371-0.20.10.00.00.0
TB4-70.464-0.00.00.00.00.0
DET3-7-10.443-0.00.00.00.00.0
ARI3-7-10.380-0.00.00.00.00.0
NYG2-90.3350.00.00.00.00.00.0
ATL3-80.398-0.00.00.00.00.0
WAS2-90.2490.00.00.00.00.00.0
CIN0-110.250------
MIA2-90.222-0.0----

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 12, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] New England over San Francisco

2019-11-24

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

Clemson remains #1 for the 4th week in a row despite their bye week, and Ohio State jumped over LSU to swap places at #2 and #3. Florida also had a bye, but fell out of the top 4. Georgia rose all the way up from #7 to take the final playoff position, passing Penn State (lost to Ohio State) and Oregon (lost to Arizona State).

We've still got 3 undefeated teams, and they're all 11-0 and ranked at the top.

Missouri took a lead, fell behind, took another lead, fell behind, tied it up, but ultimately lost to Tennessee, to fall to a disappointing 5-6 and #78. That bowl eligibility appeal is starting to look moot. Although, only 73 teams currently have 6 wins, so we could see a 5-win team in a bowl.

Akron did not mess with tradition, and lost their 11th game of the season to remain #130. It was one of their closest losses of the season though, just a 3 point game. They'll get one last chance next week against Ohio, as all the rivalries and attempted rivalries take place.

1Clemson11-0
2Ohio State11-0
3LSU11-0
4Georgia10-1
5Boise State10-1
6Oklahoma10-1
7Utah10-1
8Baylor10-1
9Cincinnati10-1
10Memphis10-1
11Minnesota10-1
12Alabama10-1
13Florida9-2
14Notre Dame9-2
15Penn State9-2
16Appalachian State10-1
17Oregon9-2
18Michigan9-2
19Wisconsin9-2
20SMU9-2
21Air Force9-2
22Auburn8-3
23Navy8-2
24Louisiana9-2
25Iowa8-3
26USC8-4
27Wake Forest8-3
28Oklahoma State8-3
29UCF8-3
30Virginia8-3
31Hawai'i8-4
32Virginia Tech8-3
33San Diego State8-3
34Louisville7-4
35Florida Atlantic8-3
36Iowa State7-4
37Pittsburgh7-4
38Kansas State7-4
39Louisiana Tech8-3
40Arkansas State7-4
41BYU7-4
42Temple7-4
43Western Kentucky7-4
44Western Michigan7-4
45Texas A&M7-4
46Marshall7-4
47Miami (OH)7-4
48Nevada7-4
49Georgia State7-4
50UAB8-3
51Southern Mississippi7-4
52Utah State6-5
53Tennessee6-5
54Wyoming7-4
55Miami6-5
56Texas6-5
57Washington6-5
58Central Michigan7-4
59Florida State6-5
60Arizona State6-5
61Indiana7-4
62California6-5
63Georgia Southern6-5
64Kentucky6-5
65Buffalo6-5
66Tulane6-5
67Eastern Michigan6-5
68Illinois6-5
69Mississippi State5-6
70Washington State6-5
71Charlotte6-5
72Toledo6-5
73TCU5-6
74North Carolina5-6
75Florida International6-5
76Michigan State5-6
77Liberty6-5
78Missouri5-6
79Boston College5-6
80UL Monroe5-6
81Oregon State5-6
82Colorado5-6
83Kent State5-6
84Ohio5-6
85Nebraska5-6
86South Carolina4-7
87UCLA4-7
88South Florida4-7
89Troy5-6
90West Virginia4-7
91Duke4-7
92Army5-6
93Fresno State4-7
94Houston4-7
95Texas Tech4-7
96Ole Miss4-7
97Arizona4-7
98Syracuse4-7
99Purdue4-7
100Stanford4-7
101Coastal Carolina4-7
102Ball State4-7
103Tulsa3-8
104East Carolina4-7
105NC State4-7
106Northern Illinois4-7
107San Jose State4-7
108Middle Tennessee4-7
109Texas State3-8
110Colorado State4-7
111UTSA4-7
112North Texas4-7
113Georgia Tech3-8
114Kansas3-8
115Maryland3-8
116Bowling Green3-8
117Vanderbilt3-8
118UNLV3-8
119New Mexico2-9
120Arkansas2-9
121Rutgers2-9
122Rice2-9
123Northwestern2-9
124UConn2-9
125New Mexico State2-9
126South Alabama1-10
127Old Dominion1-10
128UTEP1-10
129UMass1-11
130Akron0-11


2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn
Week 6 Ohio State
Week 7 Ohio State
Week 8 Ohio State
Week 9 Ohio State
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson

2019-11-22

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 12, Thursday

New England over San Francisco

Houston avenged their earlier loss to Indianapolis, and took control of the AFC South. They are now 57.8% likely to win the division, up from 32.4%. Avoiding that head to head sweep gets them past the first tiebreaker if they should wind up tied on top of the division.

Everything else is pretty much status quo, including the oddly specific and consistent fact that I show some non-zero chance of Washington making the NFC title game, but no chance of them making the Superbowl. I'm going to have to investigate and see if I have some weird bug in my code. When I did a test run with them winning all their remaining games 1000-0, they do wind up winning, but maybe there's some weird edge case.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE9-10.78098.4100.099.173.447.430.5
SF9-10.73382.299.090.758.537.119.2
BAL8-20.71298.199.595.062.830.116.8
MIN8-30.66235.591.463.233.717.07.5
DAL6-40.65878.079.744.422.511.44.9
GB8-20.59064.494.269.531.713.14.8
NO8-20.58194.595.865.629.011.74.2
KC7-40.59274.482.349.417.86.72.9
BUF7-30.5971.682.545.415.56.22.7
SEA8-20.53716.881.841.415.25.81.9
HOU7-40.53257.875.239.011.73.81.4
IND6-50.53928.843.321.56.32.10.8
LAR6-40.5930.922.411.24.72.10.8
PHI5-50.50822.027.511.13.91.40.4
PIT5-50.4951.331.414.13.61.10.4
OAK6-40.45124.847.319.74.61.20.4
TEN5-50.51412.622.310.72.90.90.3
CLE4-60.4220.610.74.00.80.20.1
CAR5-50.4455.47.22.50.70.20.1
JAC4-60.4260.93.41.20.20.10.0
LAC4-70.5140.51.20.60.10.00.0
CHI4-60.4860.10.70.30.10.00.0
DEN3-70.4380.20.90.30.10.00.0
DET3-6-10.4500.00.20.10.00.00.0
ATL3-70.4200.10.10.00.00.00.0
TB3-70.4440.00.00.00.00.00.0
NYJ3-70.320-0.10.00.00.00.0
NYG2-80.3490.00.00.00.00.00.0
ARI3-7-10.380-0.00.00.00.00.0
MIA2-80.242-0.00.00.00.00.0
CIN0-100.270------
WAS1-90.2560.00.00.00.00.0-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] New England over San Francisco

2019-11-21

August Card Show Autograph

I'm catching up, I promise. This one's from August 2018.

After a few years of religiously attending my local card show most months, I find that often there's only one signer at any given show that I haven't already seen, if there's any new ones at all. Such was the case last August with Ted Sizemore.

Ted Sizemore
I was surprised to see I've never posted a Ted Sizemore card on my blog. I haven't posted cards frequently for awhile here, but I hope to get back to that before long.

Anyway, Ted Sizemore was NL Rookie of the year with LA in 1969, but only spent 2 seasons there before joining the Cardinals. The 1970s weren't a great time for the Cardinals, so his 5 seasons in St. Louis didn't result in any playoff appearances. He played 5 more seasons after that, going back to LA, then finally making the playoffs with Philadelphia, but unfortunately losing the NLCS to LA both years.

Part of the reason I blog these autographs is to remember my experiences of meeting the players, but my lag has seen my memory of the show completely wiped. I'm going to have to do a better job of writing these up in a more timely manner.

2019-11-19

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 11, Final

New England over San Francisco

Kansas City beat the LA Chargers by a touchdown, which didn't have too much of an effect on the rest of the AFC. New England's giant odds took just the slightest hit, from 47.8% to 47.4% likely to make the Superbowl, because Kansas City is now 2.5 games behind New England (2 wins and 3 losses) instead of the full 3 games the AFC West leader (Oakland) would have been behind if KC had lost. KC has a tenuous half game lead by winning percentage, but is projected to be about 3 times as likely as Oakland to win the division.

I still show the same eliminations as yesterday, which is good. Somewhat curiously, I still didn't hit one single simulation in which Washington's playoff run let to a title. At 1-9, it's very unlikely to happen, but it's not technically impossible yet.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE9-10.78098.4100.099.173.447.430.5
SF9-10.73382.299.090.758.537.119.2
BAL8-20.71298.199.594.962.630.116.8
MIN8-30.66235.591.463.233.717.07.5
DAL6-40.65878.079.744.422.511.44.9
GB8-20.59064.494.269.631.813.14.8
NO8-20.58194.595.865.528.911.74.2
KC7-40.59274.482.349.417.86.72.9
BUF7-30.5971.681.644.815.36.12.7
SEA8-20.53716.881.941.415.25.81.9
IND6-40.54556.265.634.310.73.61.4
HOU6-40.52532.455.427.57.92.60.9
LAR6-40.5930.922.411.24.72.10.8
PHI5-50.50822.027.511.13.91.40.4
PIT5-50.4951.331.414.03.61.10.4
OAK6-40.45124.846.219.44.61.20.4
TEN5-50.51410.422.010.52.80.90.3
CLE4-60.4220.610.53.90.80.20.1
CAR5-50.4455.47.22.50.70.20.1
JAC4-60.4261.03.41.30.30.10.0
LAC4-70.5140.51.20.50.10.00.0
CHI4-60.4860.10.70.30.10.00.0
DEN3-70.4380.20.90.40.10.00.0
DET3-6-10.4500.00.20.10.00.00.0
ATL3-70.4200.10.10.00.00.00.0
TB3-70.4440.00.00.00.00.00.0
NYJ3-70.320-0.10.00.00.00.0
NYG2-80.3490.00.00.00.00.00.0
ARI3-7-10.379-0.00.00.00.00.0
MIA2-80.242-0.00.00.00.00.0
CIN0-100.270------
WAS1-90.2560.00.00.00.00.0-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over San Francisco

2019-11-18

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 11, Sunday

New England over San Francisco

New England won again, but still hasn't quite clinched the playoffs. Out of the simulations I ran, they made it in 99.988% though, so they're a pretty safe bet. They're also back over the 30% mark to win it all, which as I mentioned earlier, no team did last year during the regular season. San Francisco is also 9-1, but doesn't quite have the point differential advantage of New England.

Down in the dregs, the dominoes are starting to fall. Arizona and Miami join Cincinnati in being eliminated from their respective divisions, and the New York Jets appear to as well, but I'll want to work through the potential tiebreakers to verify that. At 0-10, Cincinnati is also eliminated from the playoffs. I also never hit a situation where Washington won the title, though obviously it's possible since I had at least a few times when they made the playoffs, so that blank is not technically accurate.

Let's work through the Jets possibilities. If they just tie New England for the division at 9-7, they can't win because New England swept them head to head. So we'll need a 3rd team to interfere, namely Buffalo (Miami has already lost over 7 games). Buffalo would be 8-4 counting a future win against New England and loss to the Jets, so they'll have to win one of their other games, and it turns out it doesn't matter which one. The first tiebreaker is head to head among all 3 teams, and New York will be a combined 1-3, while Buffalo is 2-2, and New England is 3-1.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE9-10.78098.4100.099.373.947.830.7
SF9-10.73382.299.090.758.537.119.2
BAL8-20.71298.199.595.964.130.717.1
MIN8-30.66235.291.363.133.617.07.4
DAL6-40.65878.079.744.422.511.44.9
GB8-20.59064.794.169.631.813.14.8
NO8-20.58194.595.865.629.011.74.2
BUF7-30.5971.682.746.515.96.32.8
KC6-40.57959.766.737.912.94.82.0
SEA8-20.53716.881.941.415.25.81.9
IND6-40.54556.366.234.810.93.61.4
HOU6-40.52532.456.228.38.22.61.0
LAR6-40.5930.922.511.34.72.10.8
PHI5-50.50822.027.511.13.91.40.4
PIT5-50.4951.332.915.23.91.20.4
OAK6-40.45132.848.920.94.91.30.4
TEN5-50.51410.422.711.03.00.90.3
LAC4-60.5307.08.64.11.20.40.1
CLE4-60.4220.611.04.30.90.20.1
CAR5-50.4455.47.22.50.70.20.1
JAC4-60.4260.93.41.30.30.10.0
CHI4-60.4860.10.70.30.10.00.0
DEN3-70.4380.51.20.50.10.00.0
DET3-6-10.4500.00.20.10.00.00.0
ATL3-70.4200.10.10.00.00.00.0
TB3-70.4440.00.00.00.00.00.0
NYJ3-70.320-0.10.00.00.00.0
NYG2-80.3490.00.00.00.00.00.0
ARI3-7-10.379-0.00.00.00.00.0
MIA2-80.242-0.00.00.00.00.0
CIN0-100.270------
WAS1-90.2550.00.00.00.00.0-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England and Dallas (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl win; New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England, Dallas, and Kansas City (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 6, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Cincinnati (Week 10, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 5, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 5, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 6, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 7, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 8, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 9, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Sunday] New England over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] New England over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over San Francisco