Superbowl XLIX Projections Recap

My projections didn't quite nail the result like last year, but they did foretell a close game, one that very nearly could have gone my way. That's not to hand-wave away the miss; I still maintain Seattle was the stronger team through the year, they just didn't deliver this time.

I looked at the graph I posted last year, and I realized it didn't have much useful information. You could see Seattle's championship chances going up each week, but that wasn't really informative without the other teams. This year, I swung all the way back the other direction. Here are all 32 teams' chances at the end of each week of play, in a nice stacked graph.

I realize this is hard to read as a graph, but think of it more like an infographic. Let the pretty (and ugly) colors amuse your eyes. You can see how promising Baltimore and San Diego were in the first half of the season. Baltimore trailed off but made the playoffs and even won one game, while San Diego just trailed off to nothingness by the end of the regular season (Week 17). Among those missing the playoffs, Philadelphia and Kansas City stand out visually to me as well, with large bars around Weeks 10-11. By week 13, or so, you can see Seattle and New England were coming on strong as other teams get eliminated.

The end of the season always triggers some retrospection, and I wonder whether I should continue to run these numbers. There are many places online with similar but more robust systems, and usually on sites completely dedicated to such things. Also, I'm really no statistician. As I love to point out to my friends, I managed to get a degree in mathematics while never taking a stats class. Sure, I studied complex numbers, differential equations, and cryptography, but the statistical analysis stuff is all self-taught. Ultimately I'll wait and see how I'm feeling about the idea when it's time to type up the 256-game schedule into a text file for 2015. If I've got the motivation to finish that step, I'm sure I'll press forward for at least one more year.


First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 17, Final)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Divisional Saturday)
First to 50% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Championship Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New England (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: New England (Week 16, Final)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Sunday]
[Week 16, Final]
[Week 17]
[Wildcard Saturday]
[Wildcard Sunday]
[Divisional Saturday]
[Divisional Sunday]
[Championship Sunday]

Zistle Trade #11 Part II

[Part I]

Yesterday I showed some cards from a recent Zistle trade, all from the junk wax year of 1990. As you can see, the rest were from about the same era.

I'm not sure why I put the Bill Buckner card on my want list, unless his name just stood out due to the famous play he didn't quite make for the Red Sox, while I was adding some other 1989 Fleer to my want list. Ultimately I hope to complete most of the easy-to-find sets like Donruss, Fleer, and Topps from these years, so I'm glad to have it. The rest of the players were all Cardinals at one time or another. I was sort of surprised I didn't have the 1987 McGwire, but I double checked my sorted cards and sure enough, I didn't.

1987 Topps #366 Mark McGwire
1989 Fleer #278 Bill Buckner
1990 Topps #261 Whitey Herzog
1991 Donruss #155 Todd Stottlemyre
1991 Fleer #635 Ken Hill
1993 Score #241 Ozzie Canseco

When I first started watching baseball, two of my favorite players besides Cardinals were the Bash Brothers, Mark McGwire and Jose Canseco. Imagine my surprise in September 1992 when I found out Jose's twin brother was in the minor league system, and came up to the big leagues when rosters expanded. He actually played 9 games in a row that year, from September 2-12 with a few off days, then disappeared for the rest of the year. Then in 1993, he played 6 consecutive games, May 7-13. That was the end of his major league career, though, after 15 games in St. Louis and 9 in Oakland.

Zistle Trade #11 Part I

I actually completed 2 Zistle trades recently, so here's part of one in addition to the one I posted 5 days ago. This one was with a Cubs fan, so the duplicates I sent out were Sandbergs, Dawsons, Madduxes, and some others.

1990 Fleer
#242 Tom Brunansky
#244 Alex Cole
#256 Tony Pena

These 3 are a good start, but I still have 9 cards left to go to get all the 1990 Fleer Cardinals, which is comprised of a total of 24 cards. For some reason I have 8 Todd Zeiles.

1990 Score
#260 Vince Coleman
#600 Todd Zeile

1990 Score is another set with 24 Cardinals in it, and another one in which I previously had 12. So, now I still need 10 from that set.


Since I like cataloging all of the sets and Cardinals players in my posts using Blogger's labels feature, I split this trade into 2 posts. This post is really what was left when the second one was full, so the other half (roughly) will be up tomorrow.

eBay Wins #152

Today I've got 4 1992 Leaf cards. They're definitely commons, and 2 are actually duplicates of cards I already had, but for a penny each, I'll take them. I now have 57 of the 528 base cards in the set.

1992 Leaf
#4 Dave Howard
#20 Steve Farr
#27 Kelly Gruber
#33 Kevin Gross

According to baseball-reference, Dave Howard played for the Cardinals in 1998-1999. I thought I was following the team pretty closely at that time, and he played in 98 games over those 2 years, but I really don't remember him. In 1999, he even played all defensive positions except pitcher and catcher, a fact I'm sure would have caused me to take note. Yet still, no memory on my part. But now, much like the result from the time I misspelled "occupy" in the 4th grade spelling bee, I'll never again forget that fact about Dave Howard.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	3247
Total Spent	$50.97
Per Card	1.57 cents
Change	0 cents

Zistle Trade #10

This was my first trade with a repeat partner on Zistle, BucCollector. Much like last time, these cards just cost me some Pirate duplicates.

1990 Donruss
#10A Brian Downing DK ERR (Reverse neg- on card front)
#650A Bo Jackson AS ERR (Stat header titled Recent ML Performance)
#700A Checklist 640 - BC-26 ERR (Missing #716)
#659 Nolan Ryan 5000K

I copied the exact description for each card directly from Zistle, since these were all error or variation cards from 1990 Donruss, and I'm not sure I could explain them any more concisely. I'm now about 35 total cards from finishing the full base set with errors, and with the Nolan Ryan and Checklist card, I believe I now have at least one variation of each card in the set.

1982 Fleer #113 George Hendrick
1988 Fleer #27 Vince Coleman
1989 Fleer #285 Bo Jackson
1991 Topps Traded #51T Jeffrey Hammonds USA RC
1992 Studio #96 Tom Pagnozzi
1992 Studio #170 Mark Whiten

How is it possible I've never posted a George Hendrick card before today? He even coached for the Cardinals for awhile. Bo Jackson is one of the few non-Cardinals I like to collect, so that's why his 1989 Fleer card was on my want list. At some point I decided I'd like to at least get the Team USA cards from 1991 Topps Traded, so that's why Jeffrey Hammonds was part of this trade. Pagnozzi and Coleman are obviously Cardinals here, and Mark Whiten joined the team a year after this card. I've still got 14 more current/former/future Cardinals to track down from 1992 Studio, though.

As with all trades, I'm just happy to knock 10 more cards off my gigantic want list, and be rid of some duplicates in the process. 

eBay Wins #151

As I continue on my journey through my eBay bargain hunting, the logical - or at least alphabetical - next step after 1992 Fleer is 1992 Fleer Ultra. Today I've got 2 catchers, in gear. That's my favorite type of catcher card. Anyone can be shown batting or attempting to steal a base. Only catchers get their own special equipment, differently shaped fielders' mitts notwithstanding, and it should be shown as much as possible.

1992 Fleer Ultra
#45 Sandy Alomar, Jr.
#588 Craig Colbert

1991 Fleer Ultra was an OK set, but 1992 is when it really started to take off, in my opinion. It became a set I looked forward to each year, until I stopped collecting somewhere during the 1999 season. However, with these two cards, I'm only up to 42 unique cards out of the 600 in this set.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	3243
Total Spent	$50.93
Per Card	1.57 cents
Change	-0.001 cents

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Championship Sunday

Seattle over New England

This has been the matchup I've projected as most likely since Week 15, when Seattle won and Green Bay lost to hand the NFC lead to Seattle, based on strength and tiebreakers. New England has been the AFC favorite since Week 11, and were projected as the Superbowl winners until Seattle overtook them in Week 16. For the second year in a row, the 2 strongest teams based on Points For and Points Allowed have made the playoffs. These certainly weren't my favorite teams in the playoffs this year, but I'll still enjoy the Superbowl. I'll root for Seattle to repeat, because I can't root for the Patriots.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Champ
SEA	12-4	0.788	55.07
NE	12-4	0.752	44.93

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 17, Final)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Divisional Saturday)
First to 50% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Championship Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New England (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: New England (Week 16, Final)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Sunday]
[Week 16, Final]
[Week 17]
[Wildcard Saturday]
[Wildcard Sunday]
[Divisional Saturday]
[Divisional Sunday]

eBay Wins #150

Today in eBay penny cards, I have 3 1992 Fleer cards. 2 out of the 3 once played for the Cardinals, including Eric Davis, the longtime Cincinnati Red. I didn't really realize at the time what it must have felt like for Cincinnati fans to see their guy go to an archrival, but every time I see a former Cardinal go to the Cubs, I think I understand the feeling just a little bit more.

1992 Fleer
#68 Bobby Rose
#403 Eric Davis
#576 Jose DeLeon

Like I've mentioned many times before, 1992 is when I really started paying attention to baseball, and consequently the players on the Cardinals at the beginning of that season are the ones I'll always vividly remember. Jose DeLeon is one of those, even though he was released that August and signed by Philadelphia that September. That might even be the transaction that caused me to make my dad explain what being released was, and try to get through to me why some guys just couldn't be traded for anything.

I didn't have any specific recollection of Bobby Rose, so I looked him up to see if there was anything interesting about him. He went to San Dimas High School in San Dimas, CA, which I'm pretty sure is the one Bill and Ted attended during their Excellent Adventure, and possibly also their Bogus Journey. His last MLB game was May 19, 1992, 10 days after I first started watching baseball, and then he played in Japan for a few years.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	3241
Total Spent	$50.91
Per Card	1.571 cents
Change	0 cents

eBay Wins #149

My last eBay lot was the end of 1991, so naturally I'm on to 1992, the year I started collecting. I actually began with Topps, but I believe I bought some of these Donruss cards that year too.

1992 Donruss
#434 Bret Saberhagen
#559 Darryl Strawberry
#583 Kevin Mitchell

I've mentioned the idea before, but seeing these 3 cards makes me really want to start a collection for all players appearing in RBI Baseball. Maybe once I start running short of Cardinals, I'll make the remaining non-Cardinals among those 160 guys the next priority.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	3238
Total Spent	$50.88
Per Card	1.571 cents
Change	-0.001 cents

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Final

There were only 2 games that took place between these rankings and week 19; North Dakota State won the I-AA Championship, and of course, Ohio State beat Oregon to win the inaugural College Football Playoff. The strength of schedule boost kept the top 4 teams in the top 4 despite 3 additional losses. In fact, the only FBS teams that moved around this week were #40-#43, with #40 and #41 swapping, as well as #42 and #43.

As I mentioned before, the College Football Playoff almost seemed designed to game my rankings. My strength of schedule component shoots sky high in a playoff, virtually guaranteeing the team that wins the final game will be my #1.

My expanded rankings of 720 teams - which I don't publish, but I do take a look at from time to time - finally look almost right. My expanded rankings top 4 are as follows:

#1 Ohio State - FBS Champion
#2 North Dakota State - FCS Champion
#3 UW-Whitewater - Division III Champion
#4 Colorado State-Pueblo - Division II Champion

If #3 and #4 were swapped it'd look just perfect, with champs ranked from the top division to the bottom, but Colorado State-Pueblo went 14-1 while UW-Whitewater was 15-0, helping them just barely edge their way into the #3 slot.

I've now completed my 4th year of rankings teams on my blog. In 2011-12, I had LSU at the top and Alabama at #3, even though the BCS title game was Alabama over LSU. LSU beat Alabama earlier in the year, and my rankings don't really care when a game was played, so those sort of canceled out. After that, my #1 team agreed with the championship game each year, with Alabama in 2012-13, Florida State in 2013-14, and now Ohio State in 2014-15.

That'll do it for this year. It was a fun college football season, with Missouri hanging onto SEC title hopes, and possibly playoff hopes, until the very end. Alabama's disappointing playoff exit will probably cost the SEC it's unofficial automatic berth next year, though, so every team is going to have to really prove they belong in the playoff.

The 2015 kickoff is less than 8 months away.

1	Ohio State	14-1
2	Florida State	13-1
3	Oregon	13-2
4	Alabama	12-2
5	Boise State	12-2
6	Marshall	13-1
7	TCU	12-1
8	Missouri	11-3
9	Georgia Tech	11-3
10	Wisconsin	11-3
11	Michigan State	11-2
12	UCLA	10-3
13	Baylor	11-2
14	Georgia	10-3
15	Mississippi State	10-3
16	Clemson	10-3
17	Arizona	10-4
18	Ole Miss	9-4
19	Northern Illinois	11-3
20	Arizona State	10-3
21	Utah	9-4
22	Utah State	10-4
23	USC	9-4
24	Colorado State	10-3
25	Kansas State	9-4
26	Air Force	10-3
27	Nebraska	9-4
28	Auburn	8-5
29	Memphis	10-3
30	Louisville	9-4
31	Louisiana Tech	9-5
32	LSU	8-5
33	Texas A&M	8-5
34	Toledo	9-4
35	Notre Dame	8-5
36	Louisiana-Lafayette	9-4
37	Cincinnati	9-4
38	UCF	9-4
39	North Carolina State	8-5
40	Minnesota	8-5
41	Stanford	8-5
42	Rutgers	8-5
43	Duke	9-4
44	Oklahoma	8-5
45	Navy	8-5
46	Tennessee	7-6
47	Western Kentucky	8-5
48	Georgia Southern	9-3
49	Washington	8-6
50	Florida	7-5
51	Arkansas	7-6
52	BYU	8-5
53	Rice	8-5
54	Virginia Tech	7-6
55	Maryland	7-6
56	South Carolina	7-6
57	East Carolina	8-5
58	Boston College	7-6
59	West Virginia	7-6
60	Houston	8-5
61	Western Michigan	8-5
62	Iowa	7-6
63	Oklahoma State	7-6
64	Bowling Green	8-6
65	Penn State	7-6
66	North Carolina	6-7
67	Nevada	7-6
68	Illinois	6-7
69	Miami (FL)	6-7
70	UTEP	7-6
71	Arkansas State	7-6
72	Central Michigan	7-6
73	Texas	6-7
74	Appalachian State	7-5
75	Pittsburgh	6-7
76	Texas State	7-5
77	Middle Tennessee	6-6
78	Virginia	5-7
79	Old Dominion	6-6
80	UAB	6-6
81	Kentucky	5-7
82	San Diego State	6-6
83	Fresno State	6-8
84	Northwestern	5-7
85	Michigan	5-7
86	Temple	6-6
87	California	5-7
88	South Alabama	6-7
89	Ohio	6-6
90	Oregon State	5-7
91	Ball State	5-7
92	Indiana	4-8
93	Texas Tech	4-8
94	Wyoming	4-8
95	Buffalo	5-6
96	South Florida	4-8
97	Akron	5-7
98	New Mexico	4-8
99	Florida International	4-8
100	Syracuse	3-9
101	Army	4-8
102	UTSA	4-8
103	Washington State	3-9
104	Purdue	3-9
105	Vanderbilt	3-9
106	Hawaii	4-9
107	Southern Miss	3-9
108	Louisiana-Monroe	4-8
109	Tulane	3-9
110	Kansas	3-9
111	Wake Forest	3-9
112	San Jose State	3-7
113	North Texas	4-8
114	Florida Atlantic	3-9
115	Iowa State	2-10
116	Colorado	2-10
117	Troy	3-9
118	Eastern Michigan	2-10
119	Massachusetts	3-9
120	UNLV	2-11
121	Connecticut	2-10
122	Kent State	2-9
123	Tulsa	2-10
124	Miami (OH)	2-10
125	New Mexico State	2-10
126	SMU	1-11
127	Georgia State	1-11
128	Idaho	1-10

2014 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State
Week 9 Mississippi State
Week 10 Mississippi State
Week 11 Mississippi State
Week 12 Florida State
Week 13 Florida State
Week 14 Florida State
Week 15 Florida State
Week 16 Florida State
Week 17 Florida State
Week 18 Florida State
Week 19 Ohio State

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Divisional Sunday

Seattle over New England

Indianapolis pulled off the upset in Denver, Dallas failed to do so in Green Bay, and the conference championships are set. Yesterday there were 5 teams still alive at 12-4, and 1 at 11-5, which is another reason I was rooting for Denver; symmetry is pleasing to me. The remaining teams are far enough apart in calculated strength that the ordering should remain the same even in the event of a blowout next week, so Seattle would be favored over New England and Indianapolis, while Green Bay would only be favored against Indianapolis. That leaves the remaining matchup - the only potential Superbowl rematch - with New England favored over Green Bay. I'll be rooting for both road teams next Sunday, which, to me, might be the best Sunday of professional football all year. There's nearly 7 hours of football, and twice the teams to root for. Maybe I'll try to get Conference Championship parties started to rival the tradition of Superbowl parties.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Conf. Champ	Champ
SEA	12-4	0.788	57.78	34.27
NE	12-4	0.752	61.34	29.58
GB	12-4	0.730	42.22	21.82
IND	11-5	0.656	38.66	14.32

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 17, Final)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Divisional Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New England (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: New England (Week 16, Final)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Sunday]
[Week 16, Final]
[Week 17]
[Wildcard Saturday]
[Wildcard Sunday]
[Divisional Saturday]

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Divisional Saturday

Seattle over New England

This is the first time I can recall - note that I said recall; I haven't actually researched this point, but it seems truthy in my head - the first day of the divisional round involved both #1 seeds. Since they both won, my projection stayed stable, and will after Sunday too. With more information, here are my updated rooting interests:

Green Bay at Dallas: On some level I root for my projections to be right, but I think I'll be rooting for the winner of this game to go to Seattle and beat them to win the NFC. Since Dallas already did that once this year, and Green Bay failed to do it, I'll stay with Dallas in this one.

Indianapolis at Denver: With the Patriots win, my projections look good, but I'll again be rooting for the winner of this game to win on the road next week. I suspect Denver has the best chance of that, though the Patriots beat them both by 22 points at home in consecutive games.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	12-4	0.788	+	59.45	34.89
NE	12-4	0.752	+	59.23	28.88
GB	12-4	0.730	53.81	22.72	11.59
DAL	12-4	0.699	46.19	17.82	8.43
DEN	12-4	0.692	54.05	23.02	9.54
IND	11-5	0.656	45.95	17.76	6.67

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 17, Final)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Divisional Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New England (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: New England (Week 16, Final)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Sunday]
[Week 16, Final]
[Week 17]
[Wildcard Saturday]
[Wildcard Sunday]

eBay Wins #148

I'm now at the end of 1991 as I gradually go through my stack of eBay penny cards. I had 3 Upper Deck cards.

1991 Upper Deck
#106 Dave Stieb
#187 Luis Polonia
#614 Bill Landrum

None of these 3 were ever Cardinals, so let's have a look at the backs.

1991 Upper Deck
#106 Dave Stieb
#187 Luis Polonia
#614 Bill Landrum

Ah ha, I found a Cardinal. Pat Borders makes a cameo on Dave Stieb's card. I believe that's Galen Cisco at the mound there as well.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	3235
Total Spent	$50.85
Per Card	1.572 cents
Change	0 cents

A New Hall of Fame Cardinal

Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, and Craig Biggio never played for the St. Louis Cardinals, but one guy in this year's Hall of Fame class did, albeit quite briefly. John Smoltz made his last 7 career starts for the Cardinals in 2009, along with 2 innings in relief in the NLDS. Of course, almost no one outside of Boston or St. Louis - and probably even very few inside those cities - will ever think of Smoltz as a member of any team but Atlanta, which is where he earned his Hall of Fame plaque.

2009 Topps Heritage #507 John Smoltz

I wasn't sure if there were any cards showing him in a Cardinal uniform at all, or if I had any, but a quick search through Zistle showed me he had several issued, and I own exactly one, this nice horizontal Heritage card. The Cardinals picked him up on August 19, so it's actually pretty impressive that this card made it into the Heritage High Numbers set for 2009.

Looking at the current and upcoming Hall of Fame Ballots, I may be waiting a while for my next post like this. The best chances, though still slim, appear to be Lee Smith, Mark McGwire, Larry Walker, Jim Edmonds, Edgar Renteria, or Scott Rolen, and those last 3 won't show up on the ballot until 2016, 2017, and 2018, respectively.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 19

With a bunch more bowls this week, way too many teams moved around to list them all, especially those near the top. Florida State lost in the playoff, and fell to #2. Curiously, Oregon, who beat them, is only up to #3 so far. I opted to include Sunday's bowl game in "Week 19", so now there are only 2 games left in the season, the I-AA championship, and of course the CFP Championship, pitting Oregon against my new #1, Ohio State.

Since I've been tracking them all year, I'll just note that Missouri's bowl win brought them up to #8 from #10, which should be about where they finish.

TCU's big win didn't move them up in my standings, because Boise State also won, Marshall was a full 2 wins ahead, and the top 4 teams got big strength of schedule boosts by playing each other, while TCU played a team tied at #15.

I had an interesting discussion with a friend of mine at a New Year's party, about how a the 128 teams in the FBS would make for a perfect 7-round tournament. It was just a thought experiment; we didn't think we'd find some great solution that everyone would be happy with. We figured there could be a 5-6 game conference schedule plus 1 or 2 out of conference games to determine seeding, which means we'd need a lot of tiebreakers. Then, it's just a bracket from there, and your champion will definitely be a team that won its last 7 games of the season. It'd be quite a shift from the status quo, and would almost certainly never happen in one fell swoop. But, we heard for years that no playoff would be possible due to scheduling concerns, and here we are with a 2-round playoff, with plenty of rumblings of adding a third round due to strong #5-#8 teams. I guess what I'm saying is, if we ever have a 128-team playoff, you can say you read it here first.

1	Ohio State	13-1
2	Florida State	13-1
3	Oregon	13-1
4	Alabama	12-2
5	Boise State	12-2
6	Marshall	13-1
7	TCU	12-1
8	Missouri	11-3
9	Georgia Tech	11-3
10	Wisconsin	11-3
11	Michigan State	11-2
12	UCLA	10-3
13	Baylor	11-2
14	Georgia	10-3
15	Mississippi State	10-3
16	Clemson	10-3
17	Arizona	10-4
18	Ole Miss	9-4
19	Northern Illinois	11-3
20	Arizona State	10-3
21	Utah	9-4
22	Utah State	10-4
23	USC	9-4
24	Colorado State	10-3
25	Kansas State	9-4
26	Air Force	10-3
27	Nebraska	9-4
28	Auburn	8-5
29	Memphis	10-3
30	Louisville	9-4
31	Louisiana Tech	9-5
32	LSU	8-5
33	Texas A&M	8-5
34	Toledo	9-4
35	Notre Dame	8-5
36	Louisiana-Lafayette	9-4
37	Cincinnati	9-4
38	UCF	9-4
39	North Carolina State	8-5
40	Stanford	8-5
41	Minnesota	8-5
42	Duke	9-4
43	Rutgers	8-5
44	Oklahoma	8-5
45	Navy	8-5
46	Tennessee	7-6
47	Western Kentucky	8-5
48	Georgia Southern	9-3
49	Washington	8-6
50	Florida	7-5
51	Arkansas	7-6
52	BYU	8-5
53	Rice	8-5
54	Virginia Tech	7-6
55	Maryland	7-6
56	South Carolina	7-6
57	East Carolina	8-5
58	Boston College	7-6
59	West Virginia	7-6
60	Houston	8-5
61	Western Michigan	8-5
62	Iowa	7-6
63	Oklahoma State	7-6
64	Bowling Green	8-6
65	Penn State	7-6
66	North Carolina	6-7
67	Nevada	7-6
68	Illinois	6-7
69	Miami (FL)	6-7
70	UTEP	7-6
71	Arkansas State	7-6
72	Central Michigan	7-6
73	Texas	6-7
74	Appalachian State	7-5
75	Pittsburgh	6-7
76	Texas State	7-5
77	Middle Tennessee	6-6
78	Virginia	5-7
79	Old Dominion	6-6
80	UAB	6-6
81	Kentucky	5-7
82	San Diego State	6-6
83	Fresno State	6-8
84	Northwestern	5-7
85	Michigan	5-7
86	Temple	6-6
87	California	5-7
88	South Alabama	6-7
89	Ohio	6-6
90	Oregon State	5-7
91	Ball State	5-7
92	Indiana	4-8
93	Texas Tech	4-8
94	Wyoming	4-8
95	Buffalo	5-6
96	South Florida	4-8
97	Akron	5-7
98	New Mexico	4-8
99	Florida International	4-8
100	Syracuse	3-9
101	Army	4-8
102	UTSA	4-8
103	Washington State	3-9
104	Purdue	3-9
105	Vanderbilt	3-9
106	Hawaii	4-9
107	Southern Miss	3-9
108	Louisiana-Monroe	4-8
109	Tulane	3-9
110	Kansas	3-9
111	Wake Forest	3-9
112	San Jose State	3-7
113	North Texas	4-8
114	Florida Atlantic	3-9
115	Iowa State	2-10
116	Colorado	2-10
117	Troy	3-9
118	Eastern Michigan	2-10
119	Massachusetts	3-9
120	UNLV	2-11
121	Connecticut	2-10
122	Kent State	2-9
123	Tulsa	2-10
124	Miami (OH)	2-10
125	New Mexico State	2-10
126	SMU	1-11
127	Georgia State	1-11
128	Idaho	1-10

2014 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State
Week 9 Mississippi State
Week 10 Mississippi State
Week 11 Mississippi State
Week 12 Florida State
Week 13 Florida State
Week 14 Florida State
Week 15 Florida State
Week 16 Florida State
Week 17 Florida State
Week 18 Florida State

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Wildcard Sunday

Seattle over New England

With Seattle's matchup set to be against Carolina, their chances of being in the Superbowl are now nearly 50%. Baltimore is the only wildcard team left.

Now for my rooting interests next weekend.

Baltimore at New England: I can't ever root for the Patriots, I don't think. Maybe a situation will come up eventually. Baltimore it is.

Carolina at Seattle: If you're not a Seahawks fan, you have to admit it'd be kind of fun to see the NFL implode if Carolina gets much further. Carolina's my team.

Dallas at Green Bay: As a kid, especially before St. Louis had the Rams, this game would have been a must-watch; Favre vs Aikman. I think I'll root for Dallas in this one, though I like both teams.

Indianapolis at Denver: This one's a bit of a tossup too, so I'll take Denver in the event that New England beats Baltimore. Hopefully a cold weather team would have a better shot there in the AFC Championship than a dome team. We'd be subject to "Manning-Brady XVI" marketing, though. If Baltimore wins, I'll still root Denver.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	12-4	0.787	+	83.238	49.506	29.743
NE	12-4	0.751	+	55.019	32.583	16.524
GB	12-4	0.730	+	53.818	25.990	13.629
BAL	10-6	0.712	-	44.981	24.421	11.188
DAL	12-4	0.699	+	46.182	20.677	10.056
DEN	12-4	0.692	+	54.053	24.225	10.530
IND	11-5	0.656	+	45.947	18.771	7.433
CAR	7-8-1	0.427	+	16.762	3.827	0.898

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 17, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New England (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: New England (Week 16, Final)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Sunday]
[Week 16, Final]
[Week 17]
[Wildcard Saturday]

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Wildcard Saturday

Seattle over New England

Pittsburgh and Arizona, the contenders for Superbowl XLIII, are the first ones out of this year's playoffs. I was rooting, but just barely, for Carolina to beat Arizona, but moreso for Pittsburgh.

Today, I'd like to see Indianapolis beat Cincinnati, and I suspect they will, though the Bengals seem to have been up and down all year, and anything could happen. The Denver-Indianapolis matchup would have been much more interesting in Indy as a homecoming for Peyton Manning, but I'll take it in Denver if I have to.

As for Dallas and Detroit, it'll be fun to see Jerry Jones do something silly with the spotlight on him, so let's root for Dallas to win at least another game or 2.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	12-4	0.788	+	+	+	78.715	47.851	28.853
NE	12-4	0.752	+	+	+	54.998	33.231	17.027
GB	12-4	0.730	+	+	+	63.358	30.710	16.191
BAL	10-6	0.712	-	+	+	45.002	25.015	11.606
DAL	12-4	0.699	+	+	61.220	28.285	12.673	6.197
DEN	12-4	0.692	+	+	+	58.370	26.180	11.540
IND	11-5	0.656	+	+	61.484	28.267	11.538	4.643
DET	11-5	0.595	-	+	38.780	11.017	4.618	1.741
CIN	10-5-1	0.544	-	+	38.516	13.363	4.036	1.211
CAR	7-8-1	0.427	+	+	+	18.624	4.149	0.990

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 17, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New England (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: New England (Week 16, Final)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Sunday]
[Week 16, Final]
[Week 17]

eBay Wins #147

With the football seasons winding down, I'll be back to posting a lot more baseball cards. Today I'll continue my epic eBay penny card journey with 1991 Topps.

1991 Topps
#81 Cito Gaston
#178 Dave Valle
#232 Jose DeJesus
#308 Tom Pagnozzi
#326 Ken Patterson
#496 Marty Barrett
#620 Ozzie Guillen
#728 Scott Sanderson
#776 Brent Mayne

Bear with me here for a moment. These are the newest cards I considered "old" as a kid. I started collecting in 1992, and until I really got into it, and figured out to check the stats on the back to figure out the year of the card, everything that wasn't 1992 was just from "the before times". I'd see random cards my friends had, or cards on display at a card shop, and it didn't really matter if they were from 1981 or 1991, I just knew they were all "old". Once I figured out these were 1991, my simplistic but math oriented kid mind was blown that these could have been found in packs on the shelves of our grocery store, if I had started collecting just a few months earlier.

Before this bunch, I had just 27 unique cards from 1991 Topps. Now I have a still-paltry 36, a little over 4.5% of the set.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	3232
Total Spent	$50.82
Per Card	1.572 cents
Change	-0.002 cents