Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 1

Minnesota over Tennessee

Each year I project the Superbowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average team .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.

I could pretty much copy and paste from last year's week 1 notes, swapping in the correct teams

In week 1, the team with the biggest win is always atop the projections, and Kansas City Minnesota benefited from a complete domination of Jacksonville St Louis :( 

Philadelphia is right behind Minnesota for NFC champ, even though Seattle and Detroit are, for now, better teams. That's likely due to the losses by the rest of the NFC East, putting Philadelphia in a good starting position.

As for the Rams, I'd say it's time to put in Austin Davis and see what he's got, or make a zany trade for a proven QB. They currently sit in last place with the lowest chances of anyone of winning the Superbowl, barely over 1%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	1-0	0.531	38.309	55.758	40.103	21.003	10.984	5.735
HOU	1-0	0.529	37.600	53.717	38.398	20.075	10.489	5.432
TEN	1-0	0.528	36.939	54.657	39.199	20.463	10.681	5.519
DET	1-0	0.527	36.482	53.815	38.355	19.940	10.349	5.366
SEA	1-0	0.526	33.030	53.489	38.080	19.743	10.207	5.280
PHI	1-0	0.524	49.153	58.358	40.924	21.085	10.826	5.581
MIA	1-0	0.520	33.887	52.097	36.688	18.829	9.637	4.902
SF	1-0	0.520	31.603	51.481	36.169	18.489	9.432	4.819
CIN	1-0	0.515	38.491	52.497	36.466	18.533	9.394	4.739
CAR	1-0	0.515	37.554	51.400	35.454	17.956	9.064	4.588
NYJ	1-0	0.513	29.458	48.005	33.236	16.821	8.499	4.272
DEN	1-0	0.511	42.567	53.589	36.983	18.606	9.334	4.672
BUF	1-0	0.506	27.315	44.195	29.948	14.927	7.436	3.684
PIT	1-0	0.505	34.889	49.017	33.211	16.495	8.179	4.039
ATL	1-0	0.504	34.908	48.783	32.874	16.231	7.989	3.956
ARI	1-0	0.503	25.816	43.804	29.459	14.510	7.140	3.526
SD	0-1	0.497	22.185	31.434	19.624	9.567	4.661	2.268
NO	0-1	0.496	14.477	25.069	15.349	7.448	3.614	1.761
CLE	0-1	0.495	14.293	24.854	15.230	7.410	3.605	1.746
CHI	0-1	0.494	14.174	25.534	15.821	7.652	3.703	1.798
IND	0-1	0.489	13.969	23.824	14.496	6.960	3.344	1.598
OAK	0-1	0.487	18.863	26.132	15.575	7.428	3.537	1.683
TB	0-1	0.485	13.060	22.895	13.671	6.473	3.063	1.459
BAL	0-1	0.485	12.327	22.008	13.177	6.265	2.979	1.412
DAL	0-1	0.480	18.021	25.203	14.676	6.869	3.218	1.517
NE	0-1	0.480	9.339	19.780	11.774	5.545	2.612	1.228
JAC	0-1	0.476	11.492	21.457	12.846	6.003	2.808	1.303
GB	0-1	0.474	11.035	18.953	11.133	5.163	2.396	1.115
NYG	0-1	0.473	16.622	23.155	13.287	6.122	2.821	1.309
KC	0-1	0.472	16.386	22.737	13.146	6.074	2.806	1.295
WAS	0-1	0.471	16.204	23.793	13.848	6.367	2.925	1.352
STL	0-1	0.469	9.551	18.509	10.799	4.950	2.270	1.046