Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 14, Thursday

New England over Green Bay

When I was catching up on my podcasts this week, and listening to the Tuesday episode of Pardon The Interruption, I heard one of the guys mention that Miami was 7-5. I thought to myself that they were actually 6-6, and that would be corrected at the end of the show, as is often done. I didn't think any more of it that day, because I give podcasts only about half my attention while I'm working.

Then, Thursday night, the Bears played and lost. After I ran the numbers, I saw they were 6-7, but had read a story about them falling to 5-8, and being eliminated from the division. Suddenly the Miami mention came back to me, and I feared the worst - bad data.

Luckily, I guess, I found there was only one error, at least in terms of wins and losses. I mistakenly marked Miami's 27-14 win over Chicago backwards, causing all sorts of invalid numbers. The NFC was too strong, and the AFC was too weak. New England should not have been as highly likely to win their division or make the playoffs, even though they're still far and away the favorites.

To save myself from this happening again, my software now generates the current standings, which I can compare to the official standings and ensure a match before posting my numbers..

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-3	0.686	80.866	92.320	83.683	48.821	28.242	15.862
GB	9-3	0.682	70.207	94.653	81.907	49.169	28.504	15.619
BAL	7-5	0.660	17.843	32.500	18.644	9.641	5.084	2.709
IND	8-4	0.658	94.816	95.185	61.281	32.897	17.449	9.267
SEA	8-4	0.658	43.289	73.332	53.599	29.568	15.860	8.267
PHI	9-3	0.646	84.421	91.063	71.556	38.912	20.527	10.442
MIA	7-5	0.640	12.760	39.642	23.515	11.883	6.106	3.116
BUF	7-5	0.626	6.374	21.800	12.151	5.940	2.969	1.478
DEN	9-3	0.618	90.248	97.410	84.057	42.366	19.872	9.693
KC	7-5	0.616	2.365	44.824	23.080	10.901	5.229	2.535
HOU	6-6	0.583	5.184	14.458	6.852	3.047	1.377	0.623
DAL	9-4	0.579	15.579	62.724	35.742	15.991	7.191	3.155
ARI	9-3	0.578	53.913	89.835	66.664	30.529	13.464	5.899
SD	8-4	0.563	7.387	49.272	24.814	10.508	4.464	1.929
DET	8-4	0.561	29.793	71.900	43.543	18.716	8.120	3.417
PIT	7-5	0.540	15.164	28.953	14.312	5.619	2.236	0.915
CIN	8-3-1	0.529	59.074	71.183	42.176	16.371	6.217	2.480
CLE	7-5	0.516	7.919	12.454	5.433	2.006	0.755	0.292
SF	7-5	0.512	2.788	16.303	7.504	2.832	1.105	0.412
NO	5-7	0.509	55.607	55.607	22.645	8.420	3.164	1.174
ATL	5-7	0.485	42.603	42.603	16.363	5.759	2.039	0.712
STL	5-7	0.451	0.010	0.169	0.058	0.018	0.006	0.002
MIN	5-7	0.445	-	0.020	0.006	0.002	0.001	0.000
NYG	3-9	0.382	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-9	0.352	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-8	0.330	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
TB	2-10	0.317	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	3-8-1	0.310	1.790	1.790	0.413	0.085	0.017	0.004
TEN	2-10	0.275	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	2-10	0.256	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-10	0.240	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	1-11	0.218	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]