Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 6, Final

San Diego over Philadelphia

These divisional games on Mondays and Thursdays make my posts less interesting. The AFC was relatively unaffected, and only the NFC East would have much of a change due to tiebreakers against common opponents. But, in the NFC West, the defending Superbowl champs, Seattle, are now the third most likely team to win the division at 26.6%, behind Arizona at 41.5%, and San Francisco at 31.0%. The Rams are basically out of it, with about an 0.8% chance of pulling off a division win.

I should note that Jacksonville's 0.000% chance of winning the Superbowl isn't actually 0, but it is low enough to round to that. The exact value today is 0.000319%, if you're not into significant figures.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SD	5-1	0.633	60.179	87.085	71.738	41.328	23.469	13.627
BAL	4-2	0.624	52.327	73.701	55.615	31.106	17.033	9.722
DET	4-2	0.590	53.210	72.875	55.295	30.525	16.554	8.372
IND	4-2	0.586	78.958	83.724	59.572	30.634	15.376	8.183
PHI	5-1	0.586	51.299	80.240	62.812	34.215	18.523	9.278
DEN	4-1	0.575	34.421	72.830	51.483	25.415	12.592	6.558
DAL	5-1	0.572	44.260	79.357	60.373	31.764	16.689	8.140
GB	4-2	0.558	36.866	57.760	39.376	20.137	10.215	4.837
CIN	3-1-1	0.539	26.783	53.036	34.386	15.772	7.125	3.454
NE	4-2	0.539	53.820	60.379	36.327	16.517	7.440	3.609
SF	4-2	0.538	31.041	53.808	35.895	17.484	8.415	3.818
KC	2-3	0.538	5.370	21.665	12.118	5.498	2.520	1.217
SEA	3-2	0.538	26.637	45.389	29.963	14.577	7.015	3.175
CLE	3-2	0.535	16.858	38.427	23.349	10.611	4.761	2.290
HOU	3-3	0.527	18.845	35.294	19.719	8.761	3.877	1.831
ARI	4-1	0.521	41.523	62.259	43.084	20.307	9.416	4.109
BUF	3-3	0.504	28.139	34.009	16.930	7.048	2.936	1.321
CHI	3-3	0.498	8.855	20.928	11.873	5.320	2.377	0.985
MIA	2-3	0.492	16.363	20.793	10.156	4.130	1.683	0.737
ATL	2-4	0.490	19.800	21.063	9.855	4.243	1.831	0.744
NYG	3-3	0.490	4.297	17.090	9.149	3.973	1.744	0.707
NO	2-3	0.485	24.859	27.032	13.037	5.550	2.368	0.951
CAR	3-2-1	0.470	53.974	55.289	26.477	10.898	4.485	1.737
PIT	3-3	0.468	4.031	13.373	6.590	2.542	0.982	0.407
WAS	1-5	0.438	0.144	0.783	0.338	0.130	0.051	0.018
STL	1-4	0.416	0.799	1.429	0.588	0.212	0.078	0.026
MIN	2-4	0.416	1.069	3.234	1.394	0.509	0.188	0.064
TEN	2-4	0.402	2.161	3.631	1.348	0.438	0.144	0.051
OAK	0-5	0.397	0.030	0.119	0.042	0.013	0.004	0.001
NYJ	1-5	0.381	1.679	1.885	0.614	0.183	0.055	0.018
TB	1-5	0.375	1.367	1.464	0.491	0.158	0.051	0.015
JAC	0-6	0.341	0.036	0.049	0.014	0.004	0.001	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]