Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 3, Final

Cincinnati over Arizona

It's still early in the season, but the inter-conference games still have a measurable effect on everyone's playoff odds. In fact, perhaps the effect is noticeable on everyone precisely because it is so early, and no one has completely run away with a division. There are actually no divisions that include both a 3-0 and 0-3 team, and some have only 2-1 and 1-2 teams, so the races are even closer than they could be. That means a chunk of each team's playoff odds include their chances at a wildcard, which are changed when one conference wins and another one loses in isolation, like when Chicago beat the Jets. The playoff odds for Chicago climbed by over 11 percentage points, which were all taken from the other 15 NFC teams. The Jets lost over 10 percentage points in their playoff hunt, and those were all meted out to the other AFC teams. Like every inter-conference game not involving the Rams, I was rooting for the AFC team last night, but they just couldn't pull it off, raising the bar just a bit more for the NFC Wildcard slots.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CIN	3-0	0.581	60.311	81.679	67.014	37.758	21.139	11.698
ARI	3-0	0.548	57.906	74.908	57.168	30.117	15.789	8.106
ATL	2-1	0.546	50.089	63.192	44.334	23.131	12.019	6.138
SD	2-1	0.544	49.125	64.052	46.599	24.086	12.256	6.320
DET	2-1	0.540	42.340	56.722	38.873	19.983	10.247	5.176
NE	2-1	0.539	37.086	51.624	35.533	18.097	9.117	4.656
BAL	2-1	0.535	20.483	52.372	34.035	16.986	8.572	4.344
PHI	3-0	0.534	55.854	71.436	53.246	27.163	13.759	6.874
HOU	2-1	0.533	53.003	61.756	42.024	21.113	10.497	5.301
WAS	1-2	0.532	13.628	30.264	18.616	9.367	4.715	2.344
SEA	2-1	0.531	28.840	51.544	34.492	17.369	8.749	4.340
IND	1-2	0.527	30.784	38.891	23.764	11.724	5.767	2.875
CHI	2-1	0.526	37.127	52.748	35.571	17.734	8.820	4.332
BUF	2-1	0.524	40.851	53.130	35.399	17.434	8.492	4.208
DEN	2-1	0.516	35.069	52.161	34.791	16.859	8.080	3.939
DAL	2-1	0.515	23.156	41.208	26.259	12.803	6.233	2.996
CAR	2-1	0.511	33.019	48.174	30.989	14.983	7.239	3.456
NO	1-2	0.511	15.320	27.681	16.434	7.931	3.830	1.827
PIT	2-1	0.502	14.197	38.338	23.318	10.844	5.103	2.417
CLE	1-2	0.494	5.009	17.232	9.705	4.451	2.066	0.964
KC	1-2	0.491	12.436	21.965	12.665	5.798	2.640	1.224
SF	1-2	0.487	7.722	18.917	10.419	4.770	2.191	0.994
MIN	1-2	0.484	13.155	22.012	12.477	5.683	2.590	1.165
NYJ	1-2	0.479	13.111	22.502	12.985	5.777	2.559	1.157
NYG	1-2	0.463	7.362	14.098	7.398	3.210	1.396	0.598
MIA	1-2	0.454	8.953	15.990	8.419	3.535	1.483	0.632
GB	1-2	0.452	7.378	12.691	6.567	2.779	1.178	0.493
STL	1-2	0.448	5.532	11.392	5.798	2.439	1.029	0.427
TEN	1-2	0.443	12.782	18.088	9.070	3.704	1.510	0.628
OAK	0-3	0.436	3.371	4.985	2.322	0.932	0.375	0.153
TB	0-3	0.425	1.572	3.012	1.359	0.538	0.214	0.084
JAC	0-3	0.415	3.431	5.235	2.357	0.899	0.344	0.134

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]