2014-09-29

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 4, Sunday

Cincinnati over Arizona

So...what's going on here? Cincinnati is the 2nd strongest team, and Arizona is 7th overall, 3rd in the NFC. Yet, I've got them favored to win their respective conferences. It all comes down to the weakness of their future schedule, as well as the tiebreakers they've pushed their way towards winning, such as division record. To be clear, in an Arizona vs Detroit or Dallas game, I would have Arizona losing. But, by averaging 100 million simulations, Arizona comes out atop the NFC 16.338% of the time, more than any other team, and likewise for Cincinnati in the AFC with 18.177% of the simulations. The long and short of it is that the projection remains the same for another day.

In Fantasy Football news, my Larry Donnell pickup led the way for both of my teams to basically clinch the week by the end of Sunday's games. I've also got Stevan Ridley playing tonight in both leagues, but his points will just be tiebreaker fodder.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL3-10.58435.16771.82051.28127.54614.8258.235
CIN3-00.58153.90780.33162.97033.91018.17710.053
SD3-10.57761.03876.25158.70031.45316.5369.078
IND2-20.56138.70551.27833.14016.9678.6344.603
DET3-10.55551.83967.76951.40927.53414.6037.312
DAL3-10.55139.89660.55744.30923.50212.3756.149
ARI3-00.54956.11575.15758.83531.16316.3388.070
HOU3-10.54757.18270.19949.11624.46912.0386.240
NE2-10.53939.70050.27332.62915.8377.6363.901
SEA2-10.53127.33751.54135.30317.8268.9824.280
PHI3-10.52936.74455.46138.84819.6089.8564.681
ATL2-20.52753.09057.54435.80417.8118.8524.182
NYG2-20.52320.24734.40021.70710.7805.3462.505
DEN2-10.51628.20748.68930.87114.2966.5693.201
MIN2-20.51521.43938.33524.91112.1405.9032.719
BUF2-20.51030.26237.72120.9379.4724.2792.058
MIA2-20.49821.55330.85417.1417.5813.3451.572
SF2-20.49811.68229.75617.6748.2763.8901.726
PIT2-20.4966.72424.80113.5395.9472.6411.236
CLE1-20.4944.20116.4598.7863.8511.7060.795
GB2-20.49214.39126.79515.9807.4053.4311.502
KC1-20.4919.95619.97210.9814.8122.0990.972
CHI2-20.48412.33025.15115.0256.8583.1271.347
WAS1-30.4753.1138.8544.7592.1260.9540.401
NO1-30.47314.46918.2809.3984.1421.8300.767
NYJ1-30.4648.48513.0726.5352.6631.0870.474
CAR2-20.45126.61632.29417.1597.2023.0241.204
STL1-20.4484.86510.8085.6412.3680.9970.394
TB1-30.4205.8257.2983.2381.2590.4920.181
TEN1-30.4103.3265.8302.4420.8750.3150.121
OAK0-40.4020.7991.1600.4460.1570.0550.021
JAC0-40.3880.7871.2910.4860.1640.0560.020


[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]

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