Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 14, Final

New England over Green Bay

Green Bay beat Atlanta as expected, though maybe not by quite the margin expected. As a result, they hang on to the NFC favorite position. Meanwhile, the NFC South is now led by 2 5-8 teams, and in 3rd there is a 4-8-1 team with an over 11% chance of winning the division. Atlanta and New Orleans still have one head to head game, so the division winner could be as bad as 5-10-1, or 6-10 barring more ties.

I neglected to mention it (or notice it) yesterday, but Denver is the first team to breach the 99.9% mark for chance of making the playoffs. They could clinch the division this week, and allow me to dispense with the silly tracking of 99.99%, etc.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-3	0.705	98.666	99.481	95.578	57.086	33.186	18.969
BAL	8-5	0.688	34.761	65.766	39.748	20.669	11.273	6.224
GB	10-3	0.686	69.412	98.713	87.796	52.428	30.061	15.951
SEA	9-4	0.679	48.886	84.375	67.809	39.256	21.606	11.281
IND	9-4	0.662	96.682	97.762	61.800	31.678	16.103	8.427
PHI	9-4	0.635	74.019	79.861	47.863	23.623	11.927	5.653
DEN	10-3	0.632	99.504	99.968	95.384	48.487	22.142	10.872
MIA	7-6	0.612	1.022	16.238	7.704	3.462	1.577	0.741
HOU	7-6	0.612	3.318	21.724	10.829	4.729	2.190	1.029
BUF	7-6	0.612	0.311	7.441	3.535	1.575	0.723	0.341
KC	7-6	0.612	-	28.380	13.870	6.016	2.733	1.284
DET	9-4	0.600	30.588	83.770	54.980	25.618	11.809	5.172
ARI	10-3	0.587	51.114	96.959	77.309	35.021	15.276	6.483
DAL	9-4	0.579	25.981	52.422	29.344	12.945	5.709	2.377
PIT	8-5	0.576	34.783	62.104	30.703	12.408	5.131	2.224
SD	8-5	0.545	0.496	37.995	16.009	5.889	2.300	0.927
CLE	7-6	0.513	4.370	9.056	3.688	1.245	0.450	0.168
STL	6-7	0.500	-	0.077	0.029	0.010	0.004	0.001
SF	7-6	0.485	-	3.816	1.525	0.522	0.189	0.062
CIN	8-4-1	0.483	26.086	54.085	21.151	6.755	2.190	0.757
ATL	5-8	0.475	49.029	49.029	17.246	5.733	1.929	0.617
MIN	6-7	0.460	-	0.006	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.000
NO	5-8	0.454	39.464	39.464	13.171	4.146	1.321	0.401
NYG	4-9	0.435	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-8-1	0.361	11.507	11.507	2.926	0.696	0.168	0.038
CHI	5-8	0.330	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-10	0.305	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	2-11	0.289	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	2-11	0.246	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	2-11	0.231	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	2-11	0.221	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-11	0.214	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]