2014-12-09

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 14, Final

New England over Green Bay

Green Bay beat Atlanta as expected, though maybe not by quite the margin expected. As a result, they hang on to the NFC favorite position. Meanwhile, the NFC South is now led by 2 5-8 teams, and in 3rd there is a 4-8-1 team with an over 11% chance of winning the division. Atlanta and New Orleans still have one head to head game, so the division winner could be as bad as 5-10-1, or 6-10 barring more ties.

I neglected to mention it (or notice it) yesterday, but Denver is the first team to breach the 99.9% mark for chance of making the playoffs. They could clinch the division this week, and allow me to dispense with the silly tracking of 99.99%, etc.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE10-30.70598.66699.48195.57857.08633.18618.969
BAL8-50.68834.76165.76639.74820.66911.2736.224
GB10-30.68669.41298.71387.79652.42830.06115.951
SEA9-40.67948.88684.37567.80939.25621.60611.281
IND9-40.66296.68297.76261.80031.67816.1038.427
PHI9-40.63574.01979.86147.86323.62311.9275.653
DEN10-30.63299.50499.96895.38448.48722.14210.872
MIA7-60.6121.02216.2387.7043.4621.5770.741
HOU7-60.6123.31821.72410.8294.7292.1901.029
BUF7-60.6120.3117.4413.5351.5750.7230.341
KC7-60.612-28.38013.8706.0162.7331.284
DET9-40.60030.58883.77054.98025.61811.8095.172
ARI10-30.58751.11496.95977.30935.02115.2766.483
DAL9-40.57925.98152.42229.34412.9455.7092.377
PIT8-50.57634.78362.10430.70312.4085.1312.224
SD8-50.5450.49637.99516.0095.8892.3000.927
CLE7-60.5134.3709.0563.6881.2450.4500.168
STL6-70.500-0.0770.0290.0100.0040.001
SF7-60.485-3.8161.5250.5220.1890.062
CIN8-4-10.48326.08654.08521.1516.7552.1900.757
ATL5-80.47549.02949.02917.2465.7331.9290.617
MIN6-70.460-0.0060.0020.0010.0000.000
NO5-80.45439.46439.46413.1714.1461.3210.401
NYG4-90.435------
CAR4-8-10.36111.50711.5072.9260.6960.1680.038
CHI5-80.330------
WAS3-100.305------
TB2-110.289------
NYJ2-110.246------
TEN2-110.231------
OAK2-110.221------
JAC2-110.214------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]

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