Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 13, Thursday

New England over Green Bay

Detroit's win finally truly eliminated the Giants, according to the online sources I cross-check when I show a team as eliminated. A tie or Chicago win would have kept them alive. Now I have yet another elimination that shouldn't be there: Minnesota as division champs. I still have them as possible wildcards, though. They can go as high as 9-7, but the winner of Green Bay and Detroit would seem to hold the tiebreaker over Minnesota, if they also finish 9-7. Green Bay and Detroit could tie, though, and both finish 8-7-1, and behind the Vikings.

I suppose I should reintroduce ties into my simulations, but even a 1% chance seems very high, given that there has been 1 per year (1 in 256) since 2012, and only 5 since 2002, the 32-team era. But, with only a 1% chance of a tie, it's still rather unlikely the NFC North Champion Minnesota scenario would have come up.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-2	0.688	96.496	98.437	93.715	55.491	32.669	18.547
GB	8-3	0.671	62.661	89.427	71.665	41.031	23.326	12.537
BAL	7-4	0.665	33.794	60.432	38.986	20.847	11.192	6.069
SEA	8-4	0.657	28.697	78.490	56.940	31.504	17.037	8.904
PHI	9-3	0.646	86.978	92.066	71.157	38.467	20.597	10.506
KC	7-4	0.641	24.161	65.462	42.066	21.660	10.990	5.671
IND	7-4	0.629	93.975	94.226	56.828	28.635	14.082	7.080
ARI	9-2	0.604	69.680	97.038	83.920	41.839	19.752	9.197
DEN	8-3	0.595	67.235	86.860	65.475	31.344	13.890	6.493
BUF	6-5	0.591	2.709	12.492	6.398	2.836	1.322	0.614
MIA	5-6	0.580	0.795	7.329	3.530	1.537	0.704	0.319
SD	7-4	0.564	8.605	29.785	15.716	6.707	2.887	1.260
DET	8-4	0.561	37.321	75.928	45.473	19.930	8.667	3.665
DAL	8-4	0.556	13.022	49.328	26.564	11.426	4.916	2.056
CLE	7-4	0.551	14.487	30.985	15.644	6.428	2.657	1.126
PIT	7-4	0.546	21.238	45.890	24.662	10.046	4.068	1.705
HOU	5-6	0.535	6.025	10.261	4.507	1.782	0.724	0.296
CIN	7-3-1	0.526	30.481	57.841	32.473	12.688	4.813	1.923
SF	7-5	0.512	1.622	16.441	7.590	2.937	1.150	0.432
NO	4-7	0.504	53.518	53.518	21.010	7.883	2.949	1.086
ATL	4-7	0.464	34.392	34.392	12.294	4.172	1.412	0.470
MIN	4-7	0.405	-	0.014	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
CHI	6-6	0.392	0.018	1.205	0.351	0.097	0.027	0.007
WAS	3-8	0.386	-	0.000	0.000	-	-	-
NYG	3-8	0.385	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	4-7	0.351	0.001	0.064	0.016	0.004	0.001	0.000
CAR	3-7-1	0.341	11.964	11.964	2.985	0.702	0.164	0.038
TB	2-9	0.326	0.125	0.125	0.030	0.007	0.002	0.000
TEN	2-9	0.307	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	1-10	0.288	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	2-9	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-10	0.245	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]