Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 7, Sunday

Baltimore over Dallas

Dallas took over the NFC lead with a win during Philadelphia's bye week, and a division win at that, which will help in case it comes to a tiebreaker with Philadelphia.

San Diego lost, and Baltimore was able to swoop in to take the AFC lead for the first time this year. Indianapolis improved their strength number significantly with a 27-0 win against Cincinnati, dropping the once-favorites to 3-2-1 and just a 30% chance of even making the playoffs. Indianapolis improved their position enough to now have a 93% chance of making the playoffs - and to get a mention in my high-water-marks list - presumably due to an easier schedule than Baltimore, and San Diego's close competition with Denver for that division.

The Rams are showing signs of life, with a fake punt and a fake punt return, which I missed live. I had to watch the video before I could even grasp what a fake punt return is, but it worked beautifully. The NFC West isn't looking so hot this year, except for 5-1 Arizona, who were NFC favorites earlier in the year.

Finally, congrats to Jacksonville for picking up a win, but my projections still say you'd lose to 0-6 Oakland.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	5-2	0.660	80.187	88.909	71.202	41.425	23.719	14.133
SD	5-2	0.635	39.067	78.969	57.135	31.267	16.723	9.528
IND	5-2	0.631	89.382	93.668	75.437	41.342	22.054	12.488
GB	5-2	0.593	43.177	72.759	53.768	29.036	15.463	7.473
DEN	5-1	0.589	52.161	84.215	64.099	31.868	15.245	7.967
DET	5-2	0.589	47.175	76.628	58.390	31.356	16.527	7.915
DAL	6-1	0.589	54.524	87.133	69.998	37.585	19.908	9.542
PHI	5-1	0.585	44.373	78.533	59.967	31.726	16.647	7.911
ARI	5-1	0.545	61.745	74.949	54.980	26.666	12.678	5.511
KC	3-3	0.544	8.766	36.152	19.501	8.494	3.696	1.762
NE	5-2	0.543	59.682	67.241	39.807	17.151	7.351	3.495
SEA	3-3	0.533	16.215	29.683	17.545	8.140	3.797	1.610
HOU	3-3	0.527	10.174	33.003	17.050	7.143	3.003	1.380
CHI	4-3	0.524	9.430	29.246	17.413	8.008	3.676	1.523
SF	4-3	0.524	20.439	38.731	23.006	10.473	4.772	1.978
BUF	4-3	0.507	33.068	41.612	20.398	7.999	3.154	1.388
CLE	3-3	0.502	6.002	19.370	9.327	3.684	1.464	0.637
CIN	3-2-1	0.488	9.911	30.624	14.819	5.629	2.151	0.905
NO	2-4	0.482	28.634	29.180	12.406	5.073	2.092	0.789
NYG	3-4	0.470	0.921	6.312	3.006	1.200	0.490	0.179
PIT	3-3	0.468	3.899	15.020	6.648	2.408	0.880	0.354
MIA	2-4	0.467	6.731	9.268	3.944	1.407	0.506	0.202
ATL	2-5	0.451	17.257	17.519	6.872	2.607	0.998	0.345
WAS	2-5	0.439	0.183	1.008	0.432	0.160	0.061	0.020
CAR	3-3-1	0.433	51.134	51.421	19.717	7.139	2.607	0.861
STL	2-4	0.418	1.600	2.535	1.001	0.347	0.124	0.039
MIN	2-5	0.411	0.218	1.328	0.539	0.186	0.066	0.020
TEN	2-5	0.394	0.417	1.218	0.410	0.122	0.037	0.012
NYJ	1-6	0.377	0.519	0.641	0.197	0.054	0.015	0.005
TB	1-5	0.376	2.976	3.035	0.961	0.297	0.093	0.026
OAK	0-6	0.374	0.006	0.028	0.009	0.002	0.001	0.000
JAC	1-6	0.343	0.027	0.061	0.017	0.004	0.001	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]