2014-11-10

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 10, Sunday

Denver over Arizona

I'm starting to think I introduced a bug in my projection software. It seems very odd that the 5 strongest teams are not the Conference favorites, and the 5th strongest AFC team (Denver) is actually the favorite, although by a slim margin over the 4th (New England). Denver must have an incredibly easier upcoming schedule, because by all accounts the slightly stronger New England team should win more often than them, and they're both currently 7-2, and New England already holds the tiebreaker between the two teams with last week's win.

Toward the bottom of the pile, you'll see Oakland didn't make the playoffs in any simulations this week. I knew that was likely to happen, so I tried to increase the chances of them hitting at least enough times to show a rounded 0.000 instead of a true absence of playoff chances. I ran a billion simulations. The Raiders are so bad, that in a billion (weighted) randomly generated universes, not one time did they make the playoffs.

A quick look at the divisional schedule makes it clear why they're so unlikely to make the playoffs. At least to be a division winner, Oakland would have to win their next 7 to go 7-9. Denver would need to lose all of their games to go 7-9. That would give KC a win over Denver, so they'd need to lose the rest to go 7-9. That would also give San Diego 2 wins (Denver and KC), so they'd have to lose all others to go 7-9. That would give Oakland the head to head tiebreaker, at 4-2 against the rest of the division, but not a single AFC West game can go the wrong way, otherwise they are out. I had a harder time crafting a wildcard scenario for Oakland, but by having every non-Oakland interconference game go the NFC's way, I show them with a tiny chance at a wildcard slot. I'm sure this will all be moot soon, once they lose another game, or the wrong combination of teams wins next week.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL6-40.65734.73254.95134.98619.17810.5705.966
KC6-30.64030.74178.63354.12529.16615.6158.533
IND6-30.62592.76293.76865.48034.16717.6479.365
GB6-30.61932.07867.59545.51724.05012.7486.448
NE7-20.61980.87588.03969.55835.88518.2279.560
DEN7-20.61366.62491.24273.60837.41418.7859.725
ARI8-10.60981.48296.99686.13745.78523.64211.703
DET7-20.60067.19491.49872.94637.55319.0349.253
PHI6-20.59959.19777.76454.22527.53413.9636.771
DAL7-30.59540.42873.13746.91323.39211.7325.635
SEA6-30.59315.32556.66535.09717.3548.6384.134
CLE6-30.58032.68952.38731.62814.7596.8553.317
MIA4-50.5636.34414.2757.3773.3231.4950.697
NO4-50.54668.22368.31931.22813.7856.1322.645
BUF5-40.54212.77822.92511.6124.9702.1220.945
PIT6-40.54122.38146.42025.03410.6424.5122.006
SD5-40.5412.63519.1799.2843.9751.7070.758
SF5-40.5253.18228.49514.2666.0222.5781.057
HOU4-50.5197.19414.6936.7212.7371.1150.472
CIN5-3-10.47110.19823.43210.5743.7781.3490.509
ATL3-60.46516.40216.4616.2192.2650.8320.294
WAS3-60.4370.2040.6530.2340.0790.0280.009
MIN4-50.4300.3993.8731.4560.4850.1660.054
NYG3-60.4040.1710.6300.2060.0630.0200.006
CHI4-50.4010.3292.3720.8410.2590.0820.024
CAR3-5-10.38515.30815.3484.6641.3610.4010.114
STL3-60.3390.0110.1270.0340.0090.0020.001
TEN2-70.3380.0420.0520.0130.0030.0010.000
NYJ2-80.3250.0030.0030.0010.0000.0000.000
TB1-80.3240.0670.0670.0170.0040.0010.000
OAK0-90.310------
JAC1-90.2810.0010.0010.0000.0000.0000.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]

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