Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 10, Sunday

Denver over Arizona

I'm starting to think I introduced a bug in my projection software. It seems very odd that the 5 strongest teams are not the Conference favorites, and the 5th strongest AFC team (Denver) is actually the favorite, although by a slim margin over the 4th (New England). Denver must have an incredibly easier upcoming schedule, because by all accounts the slightly stronger New England team should win more often than them, and they're both currently 7-2, and New England already holds the tiebreaker between the two teams with last week's win.

Toward the bottom of the pile, you'll see Oakland didn't make the playoffs in any simulations this week. I knew that was likely to happen, so I tried to increase the chances of them hitting at least enough times to show a rounded 0.000 instead of a true absence of playoff chances. I ran a billion simulations. The Raiders are so bad, that in a billion (weighted) randomly generated universes, not one time did they make the playoffs.

A quick look at the divisional schedule makes it clear why they're so unlikely to make the playoffs. At least to be a division winner, Oakland would have to win their next 7 to go 7-9. Denver would need to lose all of their games to go 7-9. That would give KC a win over Denver, so they'd need to lose the rest to go 7-9. That would also give San Diego 2 wins (Denver and KC), so they'd have to lose all others to go 7-9. That would give Oakland the head to head tiebreaker, at 4-2 against the rest of the division, but not a single AFC West game can go the wrong way, otherwise they are out. I had a harder time crafting a wildcard scenario for Oakland, but by having every non-Oakland interconference game go the NFC's way, I show them with a tiny chance at a wildcard slot. I'm sure this will all be moot soon, once they lose another game, or the wrong combination of teams wins next week.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	6-4	0.657	34.732	54.951	34.986	19.178	10.570	5.966
KC	6-3	0.640	30.741	78.633	54.125	29.166	15.615	8.533
IND	6-3	0.625	92.762	93.768	65.480	34.167	17.647	9.365
GB	6-3	0.619	32.078	67.595	45.517	24.050	12.748	6.448
NE	7-2	0.619	80.875	88.039	69.558	35.885	18.227	9.560
DEN	7-2	0.613	66.624	91.242	73.608	37.414	18.785	9.725
ARI	8-1	0.609	81.482	96.996	86.137	45.785	23.642	11.703
DET	7-2	0.600	67.194	91.498	72.946	37.553	19.034	9.253
PHI	6-2	0.599	59.197	77.764	54.225	27.534	13.963	6.771
DAL	7-3	0.595	40.428	73.137	46.913	23.392	11.732	5.635
SEA	6-3	0.593	15.325	56.665	35.097	17.354	8.638	4.134
CLE	6-3	0.580	32.689	52.387	31.628	14.759	6.855	3.317
MIA	4-5	0.563	6.344	14.275	7.377	3.323	1.495	0.697
NO	4-5	0.546	68.223	68.319	31.228	13.785	6.132	2.645
BUF	5-4	0.542	12.778	22.925	11.612	4.970	2.122	0.945
PIT	6-4	0.541	22.381	46.420	25.034	10.642	4.512	2.006
SD	5-4	0.541	2.635	19.179	9.284	3.975	1.707	0.758
SF	5-4	0.525	3.182	28.495	14.266	6.022	2.578	1.057
HOU	4-5	0.519	7.194	14.693	6.721	2.737	1.115	0.472
CIN	5-3-1	0.471	10.198	23.432	10.574	3.778	1.349	0.509
ATL	3-6	0.465	16.402	16.461	6.219	2.265	0.832	0.294
WAS	3-6	0.437	0.204	0.653	0.234	0.079	0.028	0.009
MIN	4-5	0.430	0.399	3.873	1.456	0.485	0.166	0.054
NYG	3-6	0.404	0.171	0.630	0.206	0.063	0.020	0.006
CHI	4-5	0.401	0.329	2.372	0.841	0.259	0.082	0.024
CAR	3-5-1	0.385	15.308	15.348	4.664	1.361	0.401	0.114
STL	3-6	0.339	0.011	0.127	0.034	0.009	0.002	0.001
TEN	2-7	0.338	0.042	0.052	0.013	0.003	0.001	0.000
NYJ	2-8	0.325	0.003	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
TB	1-8	0.324	0.067	0.067	0.017	0.004	0.001	0.000
OAK	0-9	0.310	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	1-9	0.281	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
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[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
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[Week 5, Final]
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[Week 9, Thursday]
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[Week 10, Thursday]