2014-09-01

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

I like to refine my explanation of this just slightly each year, so below is copied, pasted, and slightly cleaned up from last year's week 1 post.

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers".  As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated.  The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that.  I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength.  I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop.  So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001.  I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings.  It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team.  I then filter the final results to only the 127 FBS schools.

In week 1, there are only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (aka, Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week!

This year there are 2 new FBS teams, for a total of 127:
Appalachian State
Georgia Southern

Last year, I apparently left Georgia State off of my list. It didn't affect the relative rankings, since all games listed get counted. It simply means Georgia State should have been inserted into the list, likely at #124 or #125 at the end of the year, since they finished with an 0-12 record like #124 Miami of Ohio.

Let's get to the silliest rankings of the year, week 1!


1Georgia State1-0
1Texas A&M1-0
1Louisiana-Monroe1-0
1Minnesota1-0
1Akron1-0
1Northern Illinois1-0
1Central Michigan1-0
1Utah1-0
1Ole Miss1-0
1New Mexico State1-0
1Tulsa1-0
1Rutgers1-0
1San Jose State1-0
1Arizona State1-0
1Temple1-0
1Michigan State1-0
1Syracuse1-0
1Western Kentucky1-0
1Colorado State1-0
1UTSA1-0
1Arizona1-0
1Penn State1-0
1Ohio State1-0
1UCLA1-0
1Pittsburgh1-0
1Michigan1-0
1Illinois1-0
1Indiana1-0
1Iowa1-0
1Purdue1-0
1UAB1-0
1Kentucky1-0
1Georgia Tech1-0
1North Carolina State1-0
1Ball State1-0
1Air Force1-0
1Nevada1-0
1Boston College1-0
1Alabama1-0
1Notre Dame1-0
1Nebraska1-0
1Missouri1-0
1Maryland1-0
1California1-0
1Buffalo1-0
1Marshall1-0
1Auburn1-0
1Stanford1-0
1Wyoming1-0
1Oregon State1-0
1Virginia Tech1-0
1Georgia1-0
1North Carolina1-0
1Duke1-0
1Ohio1-0
1Eastern Michigan1-0
1Oklahoma1-0
1Arkansas State1-0
1Louisiana-Lafayette1-0
1Texas State1-0
1Toledo1-0
1Middle Tennessee1-0
1San Diego State1-0
1Memphis1-0
1South Florida1-0
1TCU1-0
1Texas Tech1-0
1Kansas State1-0
1USC1-0
1Mississippi State1-0
1Florida State1-0
1UTEP1-0
1Texas1-0
1East Carolina1-0
1LSU1-0
1Oregon1-0
1Washington1-0
1Tennessee1-0
1Baylor1-0
1Louisville1-0
81Colorado0-1
81Miami (OH)0-1
81Arkansas0-1
81Houston0-1
81UNLV0-1
81Boise State0-1
81UCF0-1
81Wake Forest0-1
81Navy0-1
81Clemson0-1
81Virginia0-1
81Kent State0-1
81Appalachian State0-1
81Iowa State0-1
81Louisiana Tech0-1
81Western Michigan0-1
81Tulane0-1
81Troy0-1
81Washington State0-1
81Georgia Southern0-1
81South Carolina0-1
81Florida International0-1
81Vanderbilt0-1
81Fresno State0-1
81Southern Miss0-1
81Massachusetts0-1
81Oklahoma State0-1
81Connecticut0-1
81West Virginia0-1
81New Mexico0-1
81Rice0-1
81North Texas0-1
81Florida Atlantic0-1
81Wisconsin0-1
81Hawaii0-1
81Utah State0-1
81Northwestern0-1
81Bowling Green0-1
81Miami (FL)0-1

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