Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 4, Final

Cincinnati over Arizona

I sort the teams by strength in this table, and Kansas City and New England nearly exactly swapped places. KC jumped up to the #9 spot, where New England was. New England fell one spot below where KC was, to #23. Chicago jumped up by 1 spot to #22 to let that all happen.

I noticed today I've been remiss in noting the first teams to reach certain milestones of probability, such as a 10% shot of winning it all, so those are below now, and backdated to the proper game day.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	3-1	0.584	34.680	70.940	51.162	27.512	14.822	8.234
CIN	3-0	0.581	54.815	80.588	64.030	34.538	18.530	10.247
SD	3-1	0.577	53.639	72.754	56.397	30.323	15.968	8.765
IND	2-2	0.562	39.540	51.792	33.840	17.366	8.854	4.720
DET	3-1	0.555	52.220	68.549	52.239	27.991	14.847	7.442
DAL	3-1	0.551	39.905	60.610	44.353	23.524	12.388	6.160
ARI	3-0	0.549	56.103	74.640	58.219	30.839	16.170	8.001
HOU	3-1	0.547	56.442	69.298	48.866	24.410	12.030	6.232
KC	2-2	0.546	20.770	40.838	26.379	13.087	6.433	3.329
SEA	2-1	0.531	27.352	50.902	34.811	17.581	8.862	4.226
PHI	3-1	0.529	36.741	55.512	38.891	19.630	9.861	4.689
ATL	2-2	0.527	53.092	57.555	35.805	17.809	8.851	4.187
NYG	2-2	0.523	20.250	34.427	21.718	10.784	5.349	2.508
DEN	2-1	0.516	25.051	46.846	30.288	14.080	6.476	3.155
MIN	2-2	0.515	20.829	38.157	24.784	12.073	5.868	2.703
BUF	2-2	0.510	39.416	44.023	24.115	10.883	4.913	2.364
MIA	2-2	0.498	28.283	34.963	19.160	8.454	3.722	1.747
SF	2-2	0.498	11.681	29.041	17.231	8.070	3.790	1.685
PIT	2-2	0.496	6.368	23.280	12.912	5.687	2.531	1.183
CLE	1-2	0.494	4.137	15.787	8.601	3.774	1.676	0.780
GB	2-2	0.492	14.524	27.558	16.480	7.636	3.539	1.552
CHI	2-2	0.484	12.427	25.774	15.426	7.039	3.210	1.384
NE	2-2	0.478	20.459	25.533	13.323	5.610	2.361	1.061
WAS	1-3	0.475	3.104	8.857	4.762	2.125	0.953	0.401
NO	1-3	0.473	14.463	18.284	9.398	4.139	1.828	0.767
NYJ	1-3	0.464	11.843	15.555	7.688	3.127	1.272	0.555
CAR	2-2	0.451	26.618	32.307	17.164	7.200	3.024	1.207
STL	1-2	0.448	4.863	10.517	5.476	2.300	0.969	0.383
TB	1-3	0.420	5.827	7.310	3.243	1.259	0.491	0.181
TEN	1-3	0.410	3.253	5.693	2.419	0.868	0.313	0.120
OAK	0-4	0.402	0.541	0.883	0.349	0.124	0.044	0.016
JAC	0-4	0.388	0.765	1.227	0.468	0.157	0.054	0.019

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]