2014-09-30

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 4, Final

Cincinnati over Arizona

I sort the teams by strength in this table, and Kansas City and New England nearly exactly swapped places. KC jumped up to the #9 spot, where New England was. New England fell one spot below where KC was, to #23. Chicago jumped up by 1 spot to #22 to let that all happen.

I noticed today I've been remiss in noting the first teams to reach certain milestones of probability, such as a 10% shot of winning it all, so those are below now, and backdated to the proper game day.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL3-10.58434.68070.94051.16227.51214.8228.234
CIN3-00.58154.81580.58864.03034.53818.53010.247
SD3-10.57753.63972.75456.39730.32315.9688.765
IND2-20.56239.54051.79233.84017.3668.8544.720
DET3-10.55552.22068.54952.23927.99114.8477.442
DAL3-10.55139.90560.61044.35323.52412.3886.160
ARI3-00.54956.10374.64058.21930.83916.1708.001
HOU3-10.54756.44269.29848.86624.41012.0306.232
KC2-20.54620.77040.83826.37913.0876.4333.329
SEA2-10.53127.35250.90234.81117.5818.8624.226
PHI3-10.52936.74155.51238.89119.6309.8614.689
ATL2-20.52753.09257.55535.80517.8098.8514.187
NYG2-20.52320.25034.42721.71810.7845.3492.508
DEN2-10.51625.05146.84630.28814.0806.4763.155
MIN2-20.51520.82938.15724.78412.0735.8682.703
BUF2-20.51039.41644.02324.11510.8834.9132.364
MIA2-20.49828.28334.96319.1608.4543.7221.747
SF2-20.49811.68129.04117.2318.0703.7901.685
PIT2-20.4966.36823.28012.9125.6872.5311.183
CLE1-20.4944.13715.7878.6013.7741.6760.780
GB2-20.49214.52427.55816.4807.6363.5391.552
CHI2-20.48412.42725.77415.4267.0393.2101.384
NE2-20.47820.45925.53313.3235.6102.3611.061
WAS1-30.4753.1048.8574.7622.1250.9530.401
NO1-30.47314.46318.2849.3984.1391.8280.767
NYJ1-30.46411.84315.5557.6883.1271.2720.555
CAR2-20.45126.61832.30717.1647.2003.0241.207
STL1-20.4484.86310.5175.4762.3000.9690.383
TB1-30.4205.8277.3103.2431.2590.4910.181
TEN1-30.4103.2535.6932.4190.8680.3130.120
OAK0-40.4020.5410.8830.3490.1240.0440.016
JAC0-40.3880.7651.2270.4680.1570.0540.019

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]

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